Monitoring Nuclear Tests [heavily Redacted] (1958) Ww

./:”’

THE

PRESIDENT

“S SCIENCE

C g~~~$;~~?~

ADVISORY

L,

Executive Office Buildlng Washington, D. C.

March

MEMORANDUM

SUBJECT:

FOR

SPECIAL

FOR

NATIONAL

Transmittal

In accordance a6 approved

herewith

a report

studies

ASSISTANT

1958

TO THE

SECURITY

PRESIDENT

AFFAIRS

of Report

with Action

Council, three

THE

28,

No.

1840

of the National

by the President

on January

of the Ad Hoc Working

Group

in the area

of nuclear

9,

Security

1958,

devoted

I submit

L

to the following

testing: Z@%

“(a]

A study quent

of the losses

on a total

spe ci~ic

to the United

.waapension

future

States

of nuclear

I ,.,

conaae-

test e at Lim)

dates.

. “(b)

A symmetrical

“(c)

study

would

accrue

using

the same

A study

from

cessation

hypothetical

of the technical

a te aat suspension, surveillance The Ad Hoc repre 6entatives Committee, 1%\

mission

Working

and the Central

itself from

losses

a cessation

military

feasibility

S. R. , a complete

have

required

the se are

extensive

que etion of policy of nuclear

with

of

~

Energy

~

Com-

this

nuclear

the Group losses

of these

and to

considered

some

and the

its

there

tests

to the U. S.

by the Department to whether

limited

and the U. S. S. R.

military from

report,

implications

r, $

of the :

wo@d

of Defense

and

consideration

any

should

i[ j

be a suspension

f’ 1. I‘,

1’ ~

l;’

*IED

in t

up of

Advisory

;

to the U.S.

It excluded

respect

~

tests.

Thl

A omtc

the disclosure

Attach.

studies

not yet available.

Science

the Atomic

technical

evaluation

”

thie “report .is made

of monitoring result

of these

U.S.

the outline es of a

in preparing

Although

of tests.

implications

It ,.

Agency.

Group,

that would

testing,

of monitoring

system.

submitting

of Defense,

that

S.

feasibility

including

Intelligence

Working

to the technical

the technical

of nuclear

by the Pre sident’s

the Department

to the USSR

date

and inspection Gropp

nominated

The Ad Hoc

of the losses

●n unauthorized

I

nergy

s ct of

954.

of its contents person

Its transmittal

in any manner

is prohibited.

to

J.

R.

Killian,

Chairman

Jr,

TOP SECRET, I~ ;!

, T.,A

..>

:,

~

l.’

,.:

.-q

—.-

,.,’

...

,“.

.“,

”

TAB LE

Letter

OF

\;, %,,3 ‘-J

Capabilities

I

/.~~ > y. ‘$

of Transmittal

Summary A.

CONTENTS

of the Present

U.

.*

S.

.?

Long

Range

Detection

System B.

C.

The Technical

Feasibility

1.

At the Earthls

2.

At Very

Surface

3.

Below

the Earthls

Tests

Conducted

5. 6.

Detection Net Risk of Detection

7.

Weapons

The

Losses

to the U.

S.

3.

AICBM Warheads Very Small Warheads

8. 9. 10.

and

2 2

China

2 the USSR

3 A.

Implications

5

and to the USSR from

Cessation

Te sting

U.

7.

the USSR

4

Development

Asymmetries

6.

Suspension

Surface

1.

5.

Over

Outside

2. 4.

A Test

and at Low Altitudes

High Altitudes

4.

of Nuclear

of Monitoring

S.

and USSR

Nuclear

in U.

S.

Effects Soviet

Table

Needs

8 8 10

Cessation

Laboratories

10

Espionage

10

Through

Technical

Capabilities

in the Field

Appendix

A. Report on the Detection of Nuclear Tests --Present and Potential Capabilities and Limitations for the Detection of Nuclear

Appendix \

B.

by Hans

Tests, Detection

A.

,. ,~,.,. .,

.“ “

,.,

...

report

by AFOAT-1,

of High Altitude

Bethe

,., , ,.

6

7 Position

of A Test

1. U. S. and USSR of Nuclear Weapons

5

Warhead

7

on W capons Gains

Capabilities Nuclear

7

Boosted Warheads Summary of Relative Clean Weapons Military Effects

Warhead and USSR

“..’ :, ,:

, .F.

4’.“

..* ,, , . ...-. ,, . .

U. Nuclear

S.

Air Tests,

Force report

/’7

I .’

TAB LE

Appendix

C.

Concealment

Underground, Appendix

D.

Warhead

report

OF

CONTENTS

and Detection by Harold

Brown

( Cent’d)

of Nuclear and Hans

Tests A.

33ethe

Chart of Present and Future U. S. Nuclear Developments, report by the U. S. Atomic Energy

Commission Appendix E. Jmpact of a September 1958 Nuclear Test Moratorium on Soviet Nuclear Weapons Capabilities, by the

Central

Intelligence

Agency

report

/-+=

““--‘-

*o#ywJ’,;E’~EW

,

!“ -

,..

,2

‘

ATA

\

March

Dr.

James

Special

R.

Killian,

Assistant

Science The White

House 25,

Dear

Dr.

submit

,GJ, . . ;; ~ -?. ‘-\<”,,, .C,:, ).? ->--

C.

herewith

the report

Feasibility the Working

1840 c.

Group

Advisory

Commission,

for

transmittal

of the Ad Hoc

of a Cessation

with NS C Action Science

for

Killian:

We Council

D.

1958

Jr.

to the President

and Technology

Washington

27,

of Nuclear

Committee,

and Central

Group

Testing

The report

wh~ch included

to the National

Working

established

is concurred

Department

in accordance

in by all members

representation

Intelligence

Security

on the Technical

from

of

the President’s

of Defense,

Atomic

Energy

Agency.

“) Hans

Bethe,

Cornell

University

Chairman Harold

Brown,

Radiation Maj.

Gen.

Herbert

University

of California

Laboratory Richard

Loper,

Coiner,

Office

USAF

of the Secretary

of Defense Carson

Mark,

Los

Alamos

Scientific

Laboratory Doyle

Northrup,

Herbert

AFOAT

Scoville,

Intelligence Roderick

- 1,

Jr., Agency Los

Spence,

USAF

Central Alamos

Scientific

Laboratory Brig.

Gen.

Energy Col.

Lester

Herbert

‘)

Alfred

Starbird,

Atomic

Commission Woodward,

York,

Radiation

Laboratory

Research

Projects

Department

USAF

University

of California and Advanced

Agency,

of Defense

I&i . .. . ,. ., i ,. >., ,. ;- ., :’ . .. .:. .. t .... . >..

[

-Lt.

---

—

2“ ‘ ,.,

REPORT OF THE NSC AD HOC WORKING GROUP ON THE TE CmI@L FEASIBILITY OF A CESSATION

OF NU CLEAR

TESTING

; U

G’ -.

%,

.0,,,

................ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .............. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. \. . . .. .. .. . . . . ,. . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................ .. . . ,.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . .,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .\ ..... ....... ... ... . .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ........ .. .. ........ ... ... ........... ... ..... .. .. . ........ .. ....... ... ...... ... ... .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..\ .. .. .. . .. . . .. .. . . .. . .. . . . .. . .. .. . . .. .. . . ... .. . .. . . . .. .. . . . . ... .. .. .. .. .. ..I ........ .... ... .. .... .... .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... . I .. .......... .... . .. .. .. .. ...... .. .. ... ...... . .. .... .. ... ... ... . ........... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ., . . .. . . ... . . .. .. . .. .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . .. ... .. .. . . . . . .. . .. .. . .. . .. . .. .. .. .. . . . .... ..... ....... ... . .... .... .. ..... ..... ..... ... .. .. .......... ... .. .... ... .. . .... .......... ....... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A . . -— . ----. . . ——-— . . . . .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. ..... . .. .. .. .. .. .. ... ---- .--- —.-....---- . . .

1 . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

..s . .

.

---------

.

. .

. .

. .

. .

. .

. .

.

.

.

. .

. .

.

. .

. .

2. -A practical

detection system can be designed which can detect ——.. . ..-. .. .. _______ explosions in the USSR and ~~%~-~x e t for eo~e underground tests of small size : : : : : .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... I Such a s-m, ade~.ate ,----for safeguarding a nuclear test limitation ag~eement, would require~l: and identify~ear

a.

the installation

of about

the territories —-—-.—— b.

the right

70 observation

of the USSR

rights

eens

of the

1/

and

parts of th~_S~viet Union ---- -------- - -.--—-occasions.

system

~b~-~~~~~a~i,p~s world

and extensive ——.—— wo@_d~-qea=~y.~rn~~.o~_~h~~et

and

China

ai~%rn~~ia e ction

ting Long Range Detection System for-= in the remote areas of the world. Such a ~Ystem in Appendix

A and its

Gmclusions.

With

the Working ~els improve si~nificantiy yields

test;

to overfly

cove rag e of the entire

cribed

in

access of mobile teams to —. —— —_... __.._. d of having been the location of

on certain An additiona~

stations

China; .

of immediate

round c.

and

without

The separate

running views

capabilities

such

a system

are

discus

of the

risk

B

a~z

that the USSR could its nuclear weapon capability, a great

is de O-

eed in Section

except

for

small

of

CIA member

Conclusions. ii

appears

in Section

B 6 of the

,,

Pops!=!!? 3’!%!!!?’” ‘ATA

-

% .,. (?-%

.?;l

:J?.,

)

3.

The Working

Group

end of the HARDTACK

considers

series

a cessation

as undesirable

eas~ble. .,.

be fbrMthe not

. .. ... .. .. .. .... .. .......... .. . ... ... ... .. .. .. ......... ..I

. . . . . . . . . .: -----.: :.....

. . . . .. . .

of tests

and practically .——

.r.~/

. .. . . . . .. .. .. . . .. . .. .. . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . .. .. .. .. ... . . ..

..1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .,

4.

. . . ...”=..

. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. II .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..J. ... ... .................... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...’ . . .. ... . . .. .. . .. . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . .. . .... . . .. . .. ... ... .... ........ ... .... . .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. . . . .. . .. . .. . . ... .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ....... .... .............. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. {. .. .......... ... .. ............. .. .. .... .. . ... .. ......... ... ........... ...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1i . .. .. . . . .. . . . .. .. .. . . .... .. .. . .. .. . . .. . .. .. .. . . . .. ... . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. . J . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. i ... .. . . . . . .. .. .. . .. .. . . .. . ... .. .. . .. . . .. .. . . .. . . . .. . . . . . .. .. .. . . .. .. . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..I , --------- . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .I . . . .... ... .. ... t 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. :. ..,... . . . ...... .... ... ..... ..... ..... ....... .. ... ... ..... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. . . . . . . ... ... ..... ............ .. .... .... .. .. .. .... ... ......... .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......... ...................... . . . . . . . . . . ,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . ,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......... . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .1 ............. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .I .. ..... ........ . .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ............. ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. I .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I .. ... . ... . .. . . .. .. . .. . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. . .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . ... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..----. . . . . .. .. .... .... .... . . .. . .. . .. .. . . .. . / .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .-----

............................................ I ...1

...4

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.4

6. will

[

The rapidity

depend

laboratory __ ——------ ----.. . . .. . .. . .. .. .. . .. .. .. . ,. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .-----. . . . . ... .. . . . 7.

of deterioration

on the duration . . . . .

staffs as . .. . . . . . . .. .. . . . . .. . . .. . ... . . . .. .. .. . .. . . .. . . . ..

. . . . . .

to the . .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. . . .. .. . . .. . . .

The Working

deficiencies

in nuclear

of a test

of U.

permanency . . ., -..:, ,.-. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .._. ~.-: ... . .. .. .

Group

has

S.

weapons laboratories o~ihe ..;an d the~elief F. .-..,. .. .. .. .. . .. the_su.s.sy+pion. .. . .. . .... .. .. . . . :.–. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . .. .. ... . . . . .. . .. . .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .,. ... .a -------. . . . . . . . .. ... .. —--.-.-— . .. . . . . -—

suspension of .’:.-. . . .. . .. . .. . . .. .. . . . ..

discussed

~0

f the

,

but has not been I ‘ Thus it has to assess —..— these defects in detail. not come to an agreement as ‘~hether a suspension or cessation of age to the U. S. advantage or dis ‘s would be a bet military able in the time

wea_g~a&e~~~g+tion

the militarv

. .\ . .1

available

Hi

. ,,

.,./

“ . . . ..

‘

/~:

,- . .

.

‘\

CON CLUSIONS

OF THE

ON THE

AD

TECHNICAL

CESSATION

HOC

WORKING

FEASIBILITY

OF NU CLEAR

GROUP ~f—)i

OF A

TESTING ,.,, ~ J.*.,, .0

In response to the action taken by the National Security Council meeting on January 6, 1958, a technical panel of the President)s Science Advisory Committee, Commission, and the the technical ation A.

the Department of Defense, Central Intelligence Agency

factors

of nuclear

affecting

tests.~1

Capabilities

of the

an international

The following Present

U.

S.

the Atomic Energy has made a study-of

agreement

conclusions Long

I

Range

for

the cess-

have been Detection

reached:

System

... . ,: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .- .. ___. . . . . .- . ______.- . ..... . . . . . . . . . . . ...). . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..:. ..:.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ...’1. ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . .. .. .. . . .. .. .. . . .. . .. . .. . .. .. .. . . .. . . . .. .. . . .. . . .. . . . . .. . . .. ... . ... . . . . . .. .... . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . .. . . . . .. . .. . .. .. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. .. . .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. .. ... . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . .. .. . .. . .. .. . . .. .. . . .. . .. . .. . .. . . . .. . .. . . . . . . . .. . .. . . . .. .. .. .. .. . ... ... ..... ... .. ... ...... .. .... . .... ... .. .... .... ..... .... . ..... ... . ...... ... ... ........ .. ... .. .. ... .. ... . ....... ... .. ... ..... . .. ....... .. .. .. ...... . .. ... ... .... ...... ...... . .. .... .. .. ...... ... .... .... ...... ... ............ ...... .... . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . ...’ . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. . . .. .. . . . .. . . . .. . .. . . . . .. .. . . . ... . . .. . . . . .. . .. . . . .. . ... .. . .. . . . . . .... . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..’ .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . .. . .. ... . . .. . . ... . . . .. . . .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 1 .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..{. . . . .. .. .. ... . .. . . .. .. . . .. . .. . .. . . .. . . . . . . .. .. . . . . .. . . .. .. .... .. .. .. . .. .. . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . ... .. .. . .. . .. . . . .. .... . ... .. .. . . .. . . .. .. . . . ... . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . .. .. .. .. . . .. .. . .. . . . .. . .. . .. . . .... . . .. . ... . .. .\ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .... ...... . . . . . . ..... . . . . . ... . . . .. ... . . . ... . . . .. ....... . . . . . .. . . .... . . . . ... . . . .... . . . . .... ..... . . . .... . . . . ......... . . . . . . . . .I . . .... . . . . . . .... .... . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ....’. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.......1

\

)

........................................................................... .............................................. ............. ............... 1 .................................... ....................................... ...........................................................................1 .............................................. ....... Since in the USSR, Nuclear

tests

megaton

might

detection ~)

for

system

capabilities

as large

for

was tests

aa a few hundred

be missed

if conducted

designed outside

to detect the

kilotons in areas

USSR

tests

and possibly remote

coriducted

are limited. from

even

one

the present

network.

A compie’te been

-\

the present its

transcript

deposited Science

with

of the proceedings the Office

of the Working

of the Special

Assistant

Group

and Technology

*.,.GL{;SSIFIEU . . .

:

Tk$P SECRET

- RESTRICTED

DATA

has

to the President

,1

..

—

. .._

.. ~..

‘) ..

B.

The

Technical

the Outlines This carried

Feasibility

of Monitoring

of a Surveillance

involves

detection

out in the following 1.

a Test

and Inspection

and identification physical

At the Earth Is Surface

Suspension,

Including

System

,$~,

of nuclear

explosions

[~ \:, \.,, ’20

environments.

and at LOW Altitudes

within

e 1 4

the USSR

and China. It would be feasible to detect and identify explosions at the .<~~~~i; ~ -surface and at low ~titudes, having yields down to about z z~ i . .. . . .. . . .. . . . . . . . J with the net of seismic, acoustic and electromagnetic stations located within the USSR and China, des cribed in Appendix A. Positive identification some

cases 2.

magnetic great

requires involve

At Very

High

detection

promise

the collection

overflight

of nuclear

of the USS.R or

debris

which

Altitudesover the USSR and China.

technique

of detecting

S, based

on theoretical

and identifying

may

in

China.

nuclear

Electro-

predictions, explosions

show createci

at

very high altitudes. This is discussed in detail in Appendix B. A close net of some I 1 I/electromagnetic detection stations would suffice, subject to confirmation of actual capabilities. Earth satellites co’uld carry instrumentation nuclear

for

detonations

detecting

and identifying

both within

and outside

the nature the earthts

and location

of

atmosphere.

3. Below the Earth’s Surface. Nuclear explosions below the earthts surface are most difficult to detect. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... .:... . . . . .. . .. . . . .. .. . .. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . . .. .. . ... .. .. . . ... .. . . .. .. .. . . .. . . .. .. . .. . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . ... .. .. . . . .. ... .. .. .. . . . . . .. . . . .. .. ... . . . . . .. .

conducted well (See Appendix C) . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i, . .. . .. .. .. . .. .. . ..

... . . . . .. . .. .. ... . .. . .. .. . .. . . . .. . . .... . . .. .. . . .. .. . . .. . .. . . . ... . ... . . .... .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . \ .. .. ........... .. .......... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .\ .... . .. .. ... .. .. . . . . .. . .. ... . .. ... .. ........ .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . .. .. . . . .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . \. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ....... ........... .. ....... .. .. ... .. ... ... .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...’. . . . . . . . . ; . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . .\. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . . ... . ... . . . . ... . . . .. . . .. ... . . . . . . . . .. .. . . .. . . .. .. .. . . .. . . . . .. .. .. .. .. i . ... . .. . . ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .... .. ... . .. . . .. & . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..4 . .. . . .. . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. i ..... ... . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 7 ....... . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. . .......... . ........ .. . ...... .. . ... ... ... .. .. .. .......... ........... . ....... . ... .... ... ... .... .... . ...... . ........ .. .. ..... . ... . ..... .... ....... . ...... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . \

....................................................................iI

)

.::-::::::::::::

-:::::::

TOP

''~. """"" ...<-" "".""..'" -""-" ---"--*L'%=

"'~. -~~-"

., ..

. ,

!,,!!-----

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..-. . . [~ .. ...... . . . . . . . . . . . . .; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..:r . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . .. .. . . . .. .. . . . . .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. . ‘.* . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ... ....... ..... .. .. ...... .. . .. .. ... .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .\ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .i ... .... ...... .......... .. .. ... ... ....... ..... .. . . ... .. ................... . ....... ... .. ...... ..... .... ... .... .. . ... ... ... . . . ..... . ...................\ .. ........ ........ ...... .. ... .... ... ... ...... ... .... ............... ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...1 .“.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

.. . . .. . . . .

J “

?

J‘

...!

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . . \.

.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... ..... .... ... ..... .. .... ... ...... .. ... ... ... .. . .... ...... ......... ..... .... ... ........ ........ ..... ... ..... . .. ... ... . ... .... .. ....... ... ......... ..... .... .. ... ... . .. . .. . .. .. . ... . . . . .. . . . . .. .. .. .. .. . . .. . . .. . .. .. . . . .. .. .. .. ... .... .. . .. ..... ........ .......... ........ .... .. ..... ... ...... . ..... .................. .... ....... .. .. .... ..... .... ..... ... ... ....... . ...... .. . ..... .... .... ...... ... . .... ............ ....... .... .. .. ...... ... ... .. ....... ... . ... ... .. .. ... ..... ......... ....... ............. .... ... ..... .... .. . .. .... ... ... . ..... .... .... .......... ... . . ... .. .. ... . ... . .. . . .. .. .. . .. . . . . .. .. . . .. . . .. .. . . .. .. . .. . .. . . . ... . .. . .. .. .. .... . ... . .. .. .. . . ... . .. .. . . . . . . ... .. . .. . . . . . . . ... . ... . . . . .. .. . .. . . .. . .. .. .. . .. . .... ....... .. .......... .. .. ..... .... . ... .. . ... ... .. .... . .... .... ... ........ .. ....... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i. ......... ...... .......... .. .... .. .. .. ... .. .... ... .. ..... .... ...... .............. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .\ ... .. .. . . . . .. . . . .. . .. . .. . . .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . .. . . . .. . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .... .I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. I. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. . . . . . . . ........ ...... .. .. ..... .. .... . .... .. ... ..... ... .. . ....... .. .... ..... I . . . . . . . . . ,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .......... .. .. ... . ..... .. .. . ...... .. ..... ... . .... . .. ........ ... ......... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ./ . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . .. .. ..... ..... ... ...... .. .. .... ... .... . .. ... . . ..... ....... ...... ... .... .. .. .. .. .. ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .I ........ ........ .. ... ... ... ... .... ... ...... ...... .. ........ .......... .. ....... .......... ..... .. .. ..... ....... .... .. ... ..... ..... . ..... ........ ...... .. .. ..... .... .... ........ . ......... .. .... ... . ..... .. ...... .. ........ .... .. .. .. ...... .. . ........ ... ..... .. .... .. .. .... ... .. ... ..... .... ... . ...... .. .... .... ..... ...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . .. .. ... . .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. . . . .. .. . . . .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . ...... .. . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 1 ..... ..... ... .. . . ..... . ....... .. .... ... ... .. . .. .. . .. ............ . . .. . ... ..... .... ... ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. . ................... .... .. .. .. .. ...... . ..... . .. . ... .... .. .... . ..... . .. . .... . ........ .. ....... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ./ .. .. . . . .. . .. .. .. . .. . .. ... .. . . .. . . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .... .. . .. . .. . .. . .. ........ .. ... .. ... . ... .. ... ... . .. . . .. ...... ... ....... .. .. ...... .... .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ....’. . I . .... . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . .. .. .. .. . . ....’. . ... ....... .. ....... .. . ... ... ........ ... .. . ... ... . .... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,. . . . . . ..... .... ....... .. .. ...... . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..,. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. .. . . . .. .. . . . . . . ......... .. . .. ..... .. ..... .... . ... ....... . .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -... ...... . ... . ... ... .. . . .. .. .... .... ..... .. .... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... .. ..... .... .. .. ...

I I

. .J

(

4. nuclear about

I

)

Tests Conducted Cutside the USSR and China. Detection of tests conducted in the Southern Hemisphere will require a net of

30 detection

Northern

L- ——

1

..+Q . . .

.

,=

stations

Hemisphere

. . hemispheres. ________ . .... .. . . .. . .. .. ... . .. .. . .. .... .. . . . . ... .. . . . . . . . . . . . .... . . .. .. . . . .. .. . . .. . .. . ... . .. .. . .. .. .. .. . .. .. . .. . .. .. .. . .. .. .. . . . .. . .. . ... . .. .. . .. . ... . . . .. . .. -------

. .. .. . . .. . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . .

with

and air

components

sampling

will . . Ti+s ,system .. .. . .. .. . . . .. .. . . .. . . . .. . .. . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . .. .. . .. .. .. . . . . .. .. .. .. .. . .. . L .. . . . .. . .. .. . . . . . .. .. . . . ... . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. .. . ... . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . ... .. . . . .. .. . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . .... .. .. . . . . . . .. . . . . .. .. . . .. .. . .. . . . . . .. . . . .. .. . ...

. . . . . . . . . . . .

similar

coverage

to those

extended

in the

to both

be limited in detection and identification . ,. ;;:;. . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -----. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ;’:. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. ... . . ... . .. . .. .... . . . . . . .. . .. .. ... .. .. . . ... . . .. ... ... .. .. 1 .... .. . . .. . . .. . . . .. .. . .. . . .. .. .. .. . .. .. . .. .. .. .. . . .. . . .. . . .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. . .. ... . .. .. .. . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. ... . .. . . . . . .. . . . ... . . ... . . .. . . ... .. .. . .. ... . . . . . .. . .. . .. . .. . . .. . .. .. .. . .. . . . . ... ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . \ . . . .. . .. .. . . . . . .. . .. . .. . ... . .. .. . ... . . . . . —.....——--. . . . . . . . . . ..— . . ..—..—___ . . . . . . . . ____ . . . . . _.. . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. . . ”._ \

ATA

.—-.

— -, ATA

‘r

)

-4*[Y . . . . . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . . . ..-

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. —-.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

-’ . . . .. . . . Q . . . . ? . rt.. ..VLY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .\ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..-----

...7. ...... ... .... ...... .... ...... ..... .... .... ........ ....... .. .. ..... .... ... ...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... ... .. .... ..... ..... .. ........ ..... .... .. .. ..... ...... .... . . ............. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .,.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .,... . ,. ...... .. .. . .. ....... .... . . . .. ...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......... . ... ............. ......... ..... .. .... . ... . ... ... . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...’ ...0....

.

.

.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ------... . .. . .. . .. . . .. . .. .. . . . .. . . ... . . . . .. . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -------

5. within

Detection

backed

within

approximately

reached

although

a detection coverage

system

technical

studies

by tl,e U.

A,

there

revealing

6.

stations

reconnaissance,

for

agreement is, Without such

amount

to disclose

China,

system

Energy

presently

the detection

a nuclear

test

limitation

to pursue

of the type described

of information

Atomic

1

earlier.

agreement

of the detection

. \. . . . . . .

be

an international

safeguarding

.

At

wodd

in all feasible status would

the USSR and

. +

located

tests conducted Full operational

be an international

an6 design

S. without

after

.-. ..----—

in Attachment

could be installed

inside

a substantial

it wcwld be necessary

been

stations

located

Should

in Appendix

tecbiqnes

countries.

would be inadequate

agreem-ent.

Soviet

two years

a few

in detail

and aerial

possible

those

require

70 detection

as described

teams

for monitoring

environments

)

China,

up by inspection

essential

-\

A net of about

Net.

the USS.R and

-.-.-...—.

. .-:

could

be disclosed

Restricted

classified

Data

although

detection

and capabilities. Risk

designed

of Detection. to achieve

The detection a high probability

system

described

of detection

above

has

and identification

of all nuclear shots in the USSR and China which give signals equivalent . . . . . . . . . .;, .,.-.. of a moratorium, such to . .--. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..] For the actual enforcement a high probability may not be required since it may only be necessary to achieve being

a situation where the Soviets cannot afford to take the risk of This risk would increase in a clandestine nuclear test.

caught

rapidly if several -. ------. . . . . . . —-— . . . . . . __ . . ; .. ... .. . . . . .. . .. .. . . .. . . ... . . . .. . .. ... . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . ... .. . . .. . . .... v .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... .. . . .. . .. .. . . .. . ... . . .. .. . .. .. .. . . . .. . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . .. . . .. .. . . . .. . . . . . . .._ . . . . .. . . . . . __-—.

tests

were

required.

. . . . . ~.:==. . ,_-.-. — -------... . . . ... . .. .. .. . . .. .. .. . . .. .. .. . .. . .. . . . .. . .. .. . .. .. .. .. . .. . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. . . . . .. .. . .. . . . . ... .. .. . .. .. . ... . .. . . . .. .. .. . .. . . . .. . . . . .. . . .. ... . . .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. ... .... . . ... . .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. . .. . .. .. . .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. . . . .. .. ... .. . .. . .. .. . .. . . . .. . .. ... .. . .. . .. . . .. . .. .. .. . . . . . . .. . .. .. . .. . .. . .. ... . . .. .. . . . .. . . .. . . .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. . ... .. . .. .. . ..

T

. . ....-. . ———. . . . . . . .. .. .. ..r T-r7,-. T;7: ;: =::-: q . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . .. .. . .. .. .. .. .... .. ... . .. . . .. . . .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . .. .. . . . .. .. .. . . .. .. ..1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 . . .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . .. .. .. .. . .. .. . . .. .. . . . .. .. .. . .. . .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. . . . . . .. .. .. ... . .. .. .. .. . . . .. . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. ... . .. . .. .. .. . . . .. . .. . . . . . . . .. .. . .. .. .. . ... .. . . . . ... . .. . . . .. . . .. . .. . . . .. .. . .. .. .. .. . . . ... .. . . . . . .. . . .. . . . .. .. . ... .. .. ... . .. . . .. .. . .. .. . . .. .. . ... ... .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...! . .. .. .. . . ——.-—. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .————— . . . . . .. . . .. .. ... ----. . . . . . .-

ATA

._._—_.

.. —_—._—

....—. - .-—

..

.. .............. ........................J -5-

. . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . ;. ;...

... ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . .. .. . .. . . ... .. .. ... .. . .. .. .. ... . ...1. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

. .

. . -.

Id ,:

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -----.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..— —. . . . . . . . . . .

The

U.

S. has

have an over-riding risk

of detection

denounce

estimated

need

is reasonably

openly

(SNIE

high,

the moratorium

.f 9+. =,,7.C

11-7-57)

for the conduct

that if the Soviets

of nuclear

t estk

then they would

and minimize

and if the

probably

the political

.’..; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

by false accusations West. . . ..-against . . . . . . .the . . . . ..- .. -,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. ---. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...”. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

prefer

to

disadvantages

of such action

. . . . ;. ...... . .. . . . . . .. .. . ,. ... .. .. ... ... . .. . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... . . . . . . . . . .....1

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ----

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . ,. .

. . . . . . . . . .

..

...’ . ... . . .. .. . . . ..

I

..... ..... ..... .. ...4 . ...... .... . . . . .. .: .. .... ... . .... .. ... . ... .. .... . . . . . . . . . . . . .... .. ....... . .. ... . ... ..... .. .. .... .. ....... . .... .......... ,., . . .. .. . ... .. .. .. ...... .. .. .. .. .. .. ..... ... .. ) . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... .................................................... .......... .. .... ... ..... ... .. ... .. ....... ......... .... .... ... ... ... . .... .. .... .. .... . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . I .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .... .. .. . ....... .. ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ....!. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... ...... . ....... .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..... .... .... .... . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. . . .. . . ... . . . . .. . ... . .. .. ... . .. .. . ... ... .. . . . . .. . . .. . .. .. . . .... . . .. . ... . . ... .... ... ...... .. ......... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... ... . .. .. . . . . . .. .. . . .. ... ... . .. .. .. .... . . . ... ... .. . ..... .... ........

!. .

...

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

?

%

.....1

..I .. .. .. ..

..I

.....1 ..... ......--......................-..-----.-

~

C.

The Losses to the U. S. and to the USSR Cessation of Nuclear Testing, 1.

pares nuclear based

U.

weapons

report,

are dates

pond to technical

Nuclear

and expected

given

for

capabilities

3 TO

The yields

yields U.

S.

Capabilities.

of the U.

according

D and E. measured

Warhead position

developments

on Appendices

developments this

S. and USSR

the present

That would’ Accrue

S.

to warhead of present

unless

otherwise

nuclear

warhead

rather

than dates

they

Table

From

1 com-

and the USSR weight U.

class;

noted.

Throughout

developments enter

it is

S. warhead

the U.

corresS.

.

_ ._:

.-”.

—.

.,

-6-

stockpile.

Present

on acoustic

observations

1958.

The estimates

even if deduced capabilities of Soviet its

yield

cannot

U. S. estimates

best

In those

nuclear

devices

test

be comparable

in several

of U.

S.

classes

where

there

tests,

is major

models

doubt

they have been stall . .. . . .. . . . . . .. .. . . ..

. . . . .


.

the warhead; ?

>+

“ti,

Q~ —

capabilities.

of results

of different

. clear . . . . . . .. . .. . . .. .. . .. . . . .. . . ..

improving

. that . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . .. . .

such . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . ..

their tests . . . . . .. . .. . . . . . . . . . .

weapons

will . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . .

of con-

1 of the USSR the rate zt

technology

in fact be .. .. . . . ...”.... . .. .. . . . . . .. .. ... . . . . . . . ... . . .

in the

degrees

The estimates given ‘in Table at the end of 1958 are mere extrapolations from

.not . . . ... . ... . . .. . .. . .

1,

uncertain

Such a tab~ation speculative and

is necessarily

to the tabulation

are

cases

experience.

are based

to January

capabilities indicated as of the end of 1958 reflect the of the weapons laboratories concerned (see Appendix D).

weight

position [t . . is . . . ... .. .. .. .. . . ..

from

developments

forthcoming HARDTACK servatism will be tested. which

prior

and in addition

warhead

to the Soviets

conducted

of Soviet

extrapolations

nuclear

surety

tests,

attributed

the tests

of weights

from

are

capabilities from

made. .. .. . .... . .. . .. . . .. ... ... .. .

(Appendix . . . . .

E).

:::l::ll:::::::~::~ti . . . ... .... . . .. ... . .. . . . ... . .. ... . . . . .. . ... .. . . .. ... .. ..

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . ...1 .. . .. ..... .. .. . . . . . .I

....... .. .. .. .. ..... ... .. ... .. .. ... .. ....... ... ......... ....... ......... .... “i .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. ......................................... . . ........... ......... .............. ..... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ...... ... .... . ... .. ..... ... .....

............................................I. .................--............................................... .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

!

. . ..(

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . ,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... . .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ...! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. I. . . .. .. .. .. ..-. . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..1 . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ,. . ... .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . ,. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .,.,. .. .... . ..... . . ..... ..... .... .... .. .. ...... . ... ...... .. ... .. .... .......... .. ........ .. .. ........ . . .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ...... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . .... .. .. .......... .. ...... .... . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .I .................. !..

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

I ........................ ....................

............................................................

.......... . . ... .. .. .. .. .. .. . ...................................................... . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....... .......... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ....... ... ... ... ... ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. I .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. . .. .. . . . . . .. . .. .. ... .. .. . .. .. .. .. ... .... . .. .. . ... L

/

...4..

I

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . ... .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. . . . . . . . .. .. .. . .. . .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. . .... . . . .. . .. . . . .. ~

‘)

... . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ./ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . ..... . .. —--—— :..,..:.... ... ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . .. -—.--J

.

.

.

.

.

. ..

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

..-_

.—-—

T

.—

——

— .,

-,

-8”-

.. ... ... ... ...

. . . . .

.. .. .. .. ..

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . . .

. . . . . .

. . . . . .

. . . . . .

. . . . . .

. . . . . .

. . . . . .

. . . . . .

. . . . . .

. . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

.. . . .. .. . . . . ..

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . .. .. .. .. .. ..

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

.. . . . . . . .. ... . . .... . .... . .. . .. . .. ... . .. .. ..

. . . . . . .

...-.>.. . .. .. . . . . ... . .. .. . . . .. .. . . . ...*. . . . ...* k

.. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... .... ........ ... ...................................... ,.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... ..... ... .. ....... .. . . ... ......... .,. ., . . . . . . . ,. . . . . . . . . . . .,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,. . . . . ... ,.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. \ ... .. ... . .. .. .. . .. . .. . .. . .. .. .. . .. . . . . .. .. . .. .. . . .. . . . . . . .. .. .... .. .. .. . ... ,.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . .. . .. . ... .. .. .. . . .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . .. .. . . . . . . . . . . ..... ... .... .................. .... . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .. . . . . . . .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .i. . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..-. .—. ..... . ... ... ..... . ... .... ... .... .......... .. ..... . . ...— . ...?.. ...... .. .. . .. .... .. ............. ..... . ... . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. . .. . .. .. .. ... . ... .

-

.3

...................1

6. ..___ .. . . .. ..... .. .. .. .. .... .

. . . .. . Summary of Relative Position. ——. ..:: =-7: . . . . . . ..-. ;. .. . .. . .. .. . .. .. .. . .. . ... . . .. .. . . .. ... . .. . .. .. .. . . . . .. .. .. . . ... . . . . .. .. . ..

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .I

... ... . . ... .. .. . .. . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ......... ............. ... .. ........ . .. ... ..... . .. .. .. .... .. ........ ... .. ...... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .I .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... . ... . . ... . .. .. . .. . .. . .. . . . .. . .. . . . . .. .. .. . . . . . .. . .. .. . ... . ... .. . ... .. .. .i ..... ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i ... ... .. .. . .. . . ... . . .. ... . ... . .. . I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .,... . .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..: .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. f .. .. .... ....... . .. ..... .... .. .... ... ..... .. .. .. ..... .. .......... .......... .. ........... ... ....... . ..... .... .... .. ..... ... . ... . ............ .. ........\ .. .......... .... .. ........ ... .... ..... .. .. .. ... .... .. .. ......... ........... .. .. .. .... ....... ..... .. ......... .. .......... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. ................ . ....... ....... . ... .... ... . . .. .. ... ........ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . ..: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. I .. ............ ...... ... .. . .. ..... .... .. .... .. .. .. . .. ..... ....... ..... ...... . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . .. . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..1 .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .... .. .. .. .. ...... .. .... .. .... .. .. . . . .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I .... .. .. ...... . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ....... . ....... .... . .. ..... ... ......... ... .. ... .. .. .. .. ..... ... .. .. .. ... . . . . . . .... ... . . .. . ... . . . . . . . . .. . . . .. . ... . . .. . .. . . .. .. . . . . . . . .. .. ... .. ... . .. . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . .. .... .. . . . . . . . . .I .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..’. . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‘) ... .... . . . . . . .. .. . . . . .. .. ..-. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .I . . . . .,. . . . . . ,.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 .. .. . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..... .. ..... . .. .,.. .. .. .. .. ....]. . . . . . . . . . ,.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I ,.. . . . . .. .. ... ............ ...... ... .. . ..... . ... . .. .. ... ....... ............ ,.. . . . . .. .. ,.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . ,.. . .. .. .. .. .. .. ..,. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. ................ ,.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..,. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . ., . . . . . . .,.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .................. .. . .... .... . ...... . ..... . .. .. .. ..... . ... ............. . . . . . . . . ,.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,. . . . . . . . ---.. .. .. . . . .. .. .. .. .. .,... . .. .. .. .... .. ,.. .,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ., . . . . . . . .-. . . . . . . . ..-

I

s.. . .

.

!.. .-.

7. for

.

....I.

. .

Clean

special

.

. .

Weapons.

military

Clean

purposes,

nuclear primarily

weapons to reduce

are

being

developed

the hazard

of

x.

...

-9-

)

radioactive

fallout

to troops

and friendlv

populations when it is necessary .. . .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... ... ... . .. .. .... .... .... ... . . . . . . . . . . ,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ., ,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... ............ .. . . . . ,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .... .. . ...... . , . ......... ... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .f . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . .,... . .. .. ... ....~ .. .. ...... ........ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. ,.. . .. .. .. . .. .. ..... . . . . . . . . . . . i--- \,‘-j ., ........ .. . . . . .. .. .. .. . . . . . . ., ... .. ... . .... ........ -! .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...=. I . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......... . . . . . . . .... .... ... . . . .... . . .. . . .... .... .. .. .... .. . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . \w) :

to detonate the wea on near the 61 .ound . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ., ..., .. ........ ..... ... ... ...... . . . . . ... ... .. ................ ......... .. .. . ...... ................... ......... .. . . ....... ................... ......... . .. . ....... .. ....... ... ...... ......... . . . . . ..... . ........ ...... .. ........ . . . . . ,. . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. ..,. . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . .. ........ . . . . . . . .. ... . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....... .. . . . . . . ... ..

‘. .

.

.

.

...1

.

.

.

.

.. ............ ...... .... .... ... -.

, %:

As far as reduction exploded

near

the surface

of fallout

may

is

concerned,

be replaced

in the air in such a way that the fireball However,

certain

runways destruction troops.

of tracks Where

if reduction or other

‘)

hard

ground

our European

allies

would

may

exist

then call

posses

climate

in a limited sed clean

megaton

weapons

needed

operations

igerants.

situations

may be

especially

to protect

on the Western

situations,

some

or friendly

hard

populations

which

weapons.

tactical

weapons

favorabl

engagement.

weapons,

are

military

of attacks

In tactical

of a clean

weapons

population,

to our own troops

if severe

entrenched

of non-bell

the consequences

of clean

such as airfield

of future

in strategic

the local

exploded

the ground.

yards

clean

bombs

weapons

or heavily

required,

weapons

the use

to a political

weapons

bursts,

railroad

because

countries.

close

for

ground

such as protection

from

Possession tribute

are

to protect

or the satellite

targets

bursts

of clean

in order

not touch

a crater,

is necessary

reasons

The use

require

to make

will

is to be accomplished,

of fallout

cogent

indicated USSR

targets

if it is desired

clean

by standard

capability

may

e to the introduction If both

a convention

the USSR

to use

and the U.

them

also

con-

of nuclear

rather

S.

than standard

is conceiva”ole.

.--- —..- . . . . .. . ... . ..—. ------- . _________ -__, -..—- ----- ---- . . . . . . . . . .-.;.-.:: .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...1.-. . . . . . . . .. . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...* 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ............... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .................................

. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. . .. .. .. . . .. .. .. . .. . .. . .. .. . .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .‘1 . . ....... .. .. . ... . ....... .. .. . ... . ..... . ... .. .. . ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... . ... .. ... .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. ... .. .. .. . ... .. .. .. ... ... . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..!\ . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ...1.

. . . . .

. . . .

. .. . . .. .. . . . .. . .. . .. . . .. . . . .. . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .v.”.....”............ .. . .. . . .. .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

.. .. . .. ... . .. . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. . .. .. . . ... . .. .. . ... .. .. .. . . . .. .. .. . . .. . . . .. .. .. . . . . . . . .. . .. ... . ... . . .. . .... .. .. . . ... . . .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. . . .. . . .. . ... . . .. .. .. .. .. ..\

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .. .. . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

.............”....... .. . . .. .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

..............................................

.. . .. . .

)

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .. . .. . .. .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

... ... . .. .. .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

.. . . . .

.. . . . .

.. . . . .

.. . . . .

.. . . . .

.. . . . .

...”.......’.” . .. . .. . .. . .. . . . .. ... . . . . .. . . . . ... . .

. . . . .

.. . . .. .. ..

. . . . .

. . . . .

.. . . .. .. ..

I

............ .............................. .. ............................. ............................ ............................................................................ ............. ................... ............. ...-.—.-.-— ........................... .. \ —--—--- ——. p m - n r-”. . . ?0 -,

F

----

q’-:

.i,

Top

A ‘d

’-r”” :{ap

i

[ &!ET

t.

.~ES~&&flgdh

—.—.

—

.

‘

1 L

~:.

. .

*

..’

,.

9’.-

,.

p:

~, ._ ... . . . . . . . . __-,.

+’

...2” ......................................................................... .......................................................................... .........................................................------------—-— L....................................... ...........................—-–...._.._. . . . . . . . .-.-...:.”..:

.. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . --● . : .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . t .............. ...... ... .. ... .. ......... .............. .. ...... ........... .

8. Military Effects of a Test Cessation. The foregoing conclusions have been concerned with current and prospective warhead performance characteristics.

The

Worktng

Group

military

effects

that would

In other

words,

it has not examined

availability

of weapons

flow

systems

that might

be devised

It believes

that detailed

has not attempted

from

stoppage the effects

and alternate

to compensate systems

for

,

tests.

and

and strategies

performance

studies

the

weapons

on performance systems

warhead

evaluation

to assess

of further

should

limitations.

be undertaken

by the Department of Defense on a priority basis with the uecessary allocation of a number of experienced scientific and military personnel

.

to this task.

9. of a test

)

Effects

the terms climate

of a Cessation

suspension of-the

and,

moratorium, of the test

that the suspension ment

called

achieved

for

on the belief

is temporary,

on the general

which

might

be possible,

leading

to be tested

upon resumption

groups

that the test

to a backlog

cessation

in the laboratories

would

of ideas

of tests.

would

The will

effects depend

on

political

be the case

of testing

of disarmament,

ments

believed

and the general

might

resumption

problem

laboratories

of the laboratory personnel on If laboratory pereonnel believe

suspension.

the automatic

Laboratories.

research

its duration

in particular,

the permanency

on Weapons

on the weapons

considerable and unteeted permanent,

deteriorate

were

not

work develop-

If the laboratory

be made

certainly

if the agree-

if progrees

personnel

the weapons

rapidly.

. ;.: . . . . i. . -.. . :; ..: . . . . . . . . ,0. —--Soviet Ga ins Espionage:. ./ .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..,. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. ..... . —.— Through -. f! . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........ . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ............ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ., .,... . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ............ .... ..... . ........ .. .... ..... ............. ... ... . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . ,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ............. ... ...... . ... ....... ... .. .... ... .. ..... .. .. ... .. ............. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . ., . . ............. ..... ... .. . .. .. .. .... -—.. . . . . . . . . ..‘,

\

‘Eble

1 (4 psges)

denied

in

full

by NSC

11/3/86.