Modeling Da - Scholars

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

1 India Modeling DA

1NC Shell 1/2..................................................................................................................................................................2 1NC Shell 2/2..................................................................................................................................................................3 ***Unq***......................................................................................................................................................................4 Indian Econ High ...........................................................................................................................................................5 AT: N/U - Indian Economy Low.....................................................................................................................................6 AT: N/U - Global Econ Downturn..................................................................................................................................7 Indian Consumer Confidence High.................................................................................................................................8 Indian Business Confidence High...................................................................................................................................9 Regulations Low...........................................................................................................................................................10 No Regulations Coming Now.......................................................................................................................................11 ***Links***..................................................................................................................................................................12 Link – India Models US Regulations............................................................................................................................13 Link – India Models US Regulations............................................................................................................................14 Link – India Models US Subsides.................................................................................................................................15 India Only Models US..................................................................................................................................................16 India Only Models US..................................................................................................................................................17 ***Impacts***..............................................................................................................................................................18 Regulations Kill Indian Economy.................................................................................................................................19 Regulations Decrease Biz Con......................................................................................................................................20 Econ Decline = India/Pakistan War..............................................................................................................................21 India/Pakistan War Goes Nuclear.................................................................................................................................22 India/Pakistan – AT: Limited Nuclear War...................................................................................................................23 India Key to Global Economy......................................................................................................................................24 ***AFF Answers***....................................................................................................................................................25 N/U – Indian Economy Low.........................................................................................................................................26 N/U – Consumer Confidence Low................................................................................................................................27 No Link – India won’t model........................................................................................................................................28 No Link – No Modeling................................................................................................................................................29 No Link - No Modeling – Enron ..................................................................................................................................30 Turn – Oil dependence bad for Indian econ..................................................................................................................31 Turn - Renewables Key to Indian Economy.................................................................................................................32 Turn – Indian Alt. Energy key to stop warming............................................................................................................33 Turn - ↑ Growth=War...................................................................................................................................................34 No India/Pakistan War..................................................................................................................................................35 War inevitable - Kashmir..............................................................................................................................................36

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

2 India Modeling DA

1NC Shell 1/2 A. Indian economy strong now Indiantelevision.com 6/25 (Consumer confidence in India has fallen: Nielsen Indiantelevision.com Team (25 June 2008 6:00 pm) http://www.indiantelevision.com/mam/headlines/y2k8/june/junemam72.php accessed July 15, 2008) Indians are optimistic about the local job prospects over the next twelve months. With 86 per cent, Indians are the second most optimistic people where the job market is concerned over the next 12 months. 26 per cent of Indian respondents consider job prospects in the country ‘excellent’ while 60 per cent respondents consider the job prospects ‘good’. Promising job prospects for Indians over the next 12 months makes them confident about their personal finances over the same period. 12 per cent of Indian respondents consider their state of personal finances ‘excellent’ and 67 percent consider it ‘good’ in the next twelve months. At 79 per cent in this positive frame of mind, India along with Denmark and Indonesia figures in the list of the most optimistic countries where personal finances are concerned. “Inspite of an alarming inflation rate, India is still a growing economy with the

GDP ranging around nine per cent. There is still demand for talent in the market and especially with the entry of various multinational brands the job market looks lucrative,” continued Panchal.

B. India models US energy policy Atwood 2 (Emily R., J.D. Candidate, The Dickinson School of Law, Penn. State U, Winter, 11 Penn St. Envtl. L. Rev. 101, lexis) The tension between the need to enhance environmental laws and the drive to industrialize the country exists throughout most of Asia. Ben Boer, the Co-director of the Australian Center for Environmental Law, recently noted, "the incongruities between the need to protect the environment globally and locally, and the national aspirations for development, are nowhere more acute and more increasingly manifest than in the Asian region." n11 The Asian Development Bank recently noted that "Asia's environmental performance has not matched its remarkable economic progress during the past thirty years." n12 In Asia's modern historical and political development, the government and legal structures of the United States and the United Kingdom have often served as a model of inspiration. n13 In this particular context, however, nations in Asia, such as India, will not be able to follow the Western model for industrial development because of a lack of natural resources. n14 The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) n15 stated that "environmental degradation in South Asia is [*105] perhaps the most alarming in Asia." n16 Additionally, India, like most South and East Asian nations, faces the prospect of developing in an environmentally sensitive age. Unlike European and North American countries, South Asia must be environmentally conscious in the development of the country; India, therefore, is not assisted by the paradigm of western industrialization. Thus, India and other nations will need to deal with environmentally conscious development issues on their own.

C. Regulations kill economic growth International Herald Tribune 7 (Nov 16, Elisabeth Rosenthal, The New York Times Media Group) China and India have resisted inclusion in global climate-change pacts, saying that emissions limits would severely handicap their economies and efforts to improve the lives of their citizens. The United States has refused to participate in plans that involve caps on emissions, especially if developing countries are not included. Achim Steiner, executive director of the UN Environment Program, said that emerging economies deserved help in environmental improvement, which is often costly. ''It is a question of sharing the burden and how to do it,'' he said by telephone. ''That is at the heart of the negotiations.'' Indeed, T. Sankaralingam, managing director of NTPC, the largest Indian utility, said climate concerns inevitably took a back seat in countries that were still trying to pull millions out of poverty. ''The priority for our country is economic growth and accessibility to energy for the people,'' he said at the energy congress. ''We need to build power plants and transportation systems.'' He noted that 600 million people in India have no access to electricity. ''People below the poverty line should not be denied the benefits of economic growth,'' he said.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

3 India Modeling DA

1NC Shell 2/2 2. Economic decline causes India/Pakistan conflict Schaffer`2 (Director South Asia Program, CSIS and Former U.S. Ambassador, Washington Quarterly 2002) Mediocre growth will extract a high price in terms of political and foreign policies.

Without reforms, India's economy

will sag, leading to competitive subsidization and spiraling fiscal deficits. A more worrisome issue for the United States, however, is that this

situation could tempt India's government to take an unusually strident line toward Pakistan and its other neighbors, which, in turn, would increase the risk of some kind of miscalculation or desperate move by Pakistan. Continues…Particularly striking about the building blocks for the new Indo-U.S. relationship is how little Pakistan figures in them. Yet, the long-standing dispute between India and Pakistan remains the greatest obstacle to the role India wants to play in the world, and the

possibility of unintended Indo-Pakistani conflict is still the single greatest potential danger the United States perceives in South Asia. Leaving Pakistan out of a discussion of Indo-U.S. ties would be disingenuous, particularly in the aftermath of September 11. India's unresolved problems with Pakistan start with Kashmir, the subject of conflicting claims by India and Pakistan and the object of two wars between them as well as a continuing insurgency, supported by Pakistan, in the Indian-held parts of the state. The list of problems between the two countries also includes a group of secondary issues related to Kashmir, such as the status of the world's most desolate, disputed military installation on the Siachen Glacier in the high Himalayas, as well as a number of other "normalization" issues, including trade and visa regulations. Since September 11, the level and frequency of violence has increased within Kashmir and across the "Line of Control" that separates India and Pakistan. Statements coming from both governments provide no encouragement that the leadership of either country is close to a sustainable formula for resuming talks about the situation. India's most recent initiative for beginning talks with Kashmiri political leaders also seems to be going nowhere. Even worse, high-profile terrorist incidents, including suicide bombings of the State Assembly building in Srinagar (capital of the part of Kashmir administered by India) and more recently at the Indian parliament in New Delhi, have raised tensions between India and Pakistan dramatically. The most likely culprits in both cases are militant organizations that also appear on the U.S. government's list of terrorist organizations, active in Kashmir but headquartered in Pakistan. U.S. actions since that latest incident have made clear that the freedom of action these groups have enjoyed in Pakistan is incompatible with the relationship Pakistan is now trying to establish with the United States. The regional military buildup that followed the bombing demonstrates how easily

such incidents can provoke a cataclysmic set of reactions and how vulnerable regional peace is to another violent incident. Resolving these problems will require a high level of Indian and Pakistani leadership. Both countries, as well as Kashmiri representatives, urgently need to start a process that will eventually lead to an arrangement that is comfortable for all three parties and that addresses the issue of the Indo-Pakistani relationship and the problems of governance within Kashmir. Any such process would be slow and crisis-ridden; finding a solution is a marathon effort, not a quick fix. The obstacles to the success of such an endeavor are daunting. In India, coalition politics and broad popular resentment against Pakistan make it difficult for a leader to push even in the best of times for a

If India's economic performance is mediocre, this task will become more difficult. For Pakistan, Kashmir has powerful popular appeal. The political compromise required for a settlement would be very painful, and the strength Pakistan's government has gained by confronting militant groups over their activities in Afghanistan will not easily carry over to Kashmir. Without such an effort, however, the likelihood of new and dangerous confrontations over Kashmir is unacceptably high. Despite the new issues that unite India and the United States, this all-toofamiliar one remains at the top of U.S. foreign priorities and cries out for a sustained and sophisticated U.S. diplomatic strategy. reasonable settlement of India's problems with Pakistan.

3. Global Nuclear War Fai`1(Executive Director of the Washington-based Kashmiri American Council (Dr. Ghulam Nabi, “India Pakistan Summit and the Issue of Kashmir,” 7/8, Washington Times, http://www.pakistanlink.com/Letters/2001/July/13/05.html)

The foreign policy of the United States in South Asia should move from the lackadaisical and distant (with India crowned with a unilateral veto power) to aggressive involvement at the vortex. The most dangerous place on the planet is Kashmir, a disputed territory convulsed and illegally occupied for more than 53 years and sandwiched between nuclear-capable India and Pakistan. It has ignited two wars between the estranged South Asian rivals in 1948 and 1965, and a third could trigger nuclear volleys and a nuclear winter threatening the entire globe. The United States would enjoy no sanctuary. This apocalyptic vision is no idiosyncratic view. The Director of Central Intelligence, the Department of Defense, and world experts generally place Kashmir at the peak of their nuclear worries. Both India and Pakistan are racing like thoroughbreds to bolster their nuclear arsenals and advanced delivery vehicles. Their defense budgets are climbing despite widespread misery amongst their populations. Neither country has initialed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, or indicated an inclination to ratify an impending Fissile Material/Cut-off Convention

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

***Unq***

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Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

5 India Modeling DA

Indian Econ High Export growth driving Indian economy Smith 7/13 (“Near-term risks rising in Mideast, India and China but the fundamentals remain excellent” Author: Justin Smith Published: 13-07-2008 Source: BI-ME Buisiness Intelligence Middle East. www.bime.com/doc_print.php?id=22419 accessed July 15, 2008) India exporting more manufactured goods One of the most encouraging stories of the past few months has been the rise of Indian exports of processed goods. They have boomed, a significant change from the previous dominance of agricultural exports. This has been useful in preventing a massive ballooning of the trade deficit on the back of high oil prices and other imports. Trade has grown as a proportion of GDP, with imports now equivalent to 20% of GDP, exports 14%. (Of course, India is only a few steps along the road that China took in the 1980s, to a place where total trade is now equivalent to 64% of GDP in China.) But like China, India's exposure to a slowing US economy is more limited. Last year, only 14% of exports were to the US, compared with 23% for China. There is another important contrast to draw here. Too much of India's export growth in 2007-2008 has been driven by commodity prices. If these were to decline, then the overall trade deficit would likely sharpen, although this would also depend on the price of oil products, of which India is a major importer. China, in contrast, would see its surplus rise again if commodity prices fell, but this would be because of a falling import bill.

Investment rates driving Indian growth Smith 7/13 (“Near-term risks rising in Mideast, India and China but the fundamentals remain excellent” Author: Justin Smith Published: 13-07-2008 Source: BI-ME Buisiness Intelligence Middle East. www.bime.com/doc_print.php?id=22419 accessed July 15, 2008) Higher savings in India, financing higher investment Short-term exigencies aside, India seems to be also solving one key challenge: its savings rates are rising. Not to China levels, perhaps, but this is still really significant as savings can finance investment. In 2007-2008 India's savings rate was 34.8% of GDP, thanks to higher corporate and government saving, as well as stable household savings. Investment has risen as a result, from around 20% of GDP five years ago to 34% today. India still needs to be a bit more of a dragon here, as 30% of agricultural output is still wasted before reaching market because of the lack of infrastructure, and the country also has a power deficit of some 15% at times of peak demand.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

6 India Modeling DA

AT: N/U - Indian Economy Low India will bounce back in 2009 Smith 7/13 (“Near-term risks rising in Mideast, India and China but the fundamentals remain excellent” Author: Justin Smith Published: 13-07-2008 Source: BI-ME Buisiness Intelligence Middle East. www.bime.com/doc_print.php?id=22419 accessed July 15, 2008) Fast, but slowing growth Both India and China are slowing, predominantly because of US weakness, cost pressures and domestic tightening measures (both raised interest rates in 2007, India two times, China five). So far in 2008, India has already raised rates twice by a total of 75bps (the repo rate is now at 8.5%). Needless to say, more aggressive rate hikes could still be in the offing in India and we still expect more hikes in China too, although the bank credit quota is doing the heavy lifting there at present. Even in this weak

patch though, we see both countries still moving ahead: India should grow 7.4% year-on-year in fiscal 2008-2009, China at 9.5% in 2008. There is a difference though. India should still be able to bounce back a bit in 2009-2010 to 8.5%, but China will continue to decelerate. The impending government staff wage hikes in India could provide a boost to consumption. The Indian central bank (RBI) could quickly reverse its tightening bias gradually once inflation starts reverting towards 5% year-on-year in second half 2009. Corporates could still continue to build capacity in anticipation of future demand.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

7 India Modeling DA

AT: N/U - Global Econ Downturn Global downturns boost the Indian economy India Times 6/18 (“India second in consumer confidence index” Economic Times 18 Jun, 2008, 1859 hrs IST, IANS http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-3142535,prtpage-1.cms Accessed July 15, 2008) NEW DELHI: Despite a marginal slowdown in growth, India still ranks second after Norway in consumer confidence and their attitude towards recession, says a survey by a global information and media consultancy. "One market's trash is another's treasure, Norway and India still ride the wave of economic slowdown," says the Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey conducted among 28,153 Internet users in 51 markets in Europe, Asia Pacific, the Americas and the Middle East. "Aside from consistently high consumer confidence, the two most optimistic nations in the world, Norway and India, share something in common: Their economies are benefiting from the by-products of economic slowdown." The survey says India will see its employment rate rise in inverse proportion to rich nations, thanks to the country's enthusiastic adoption of work-force optimisation practices and the outsourcing bug. "India has established itself as a hub for outsourcing technical and support staff, as belts in the world's leading economies tighten. We may well see India's economy, and the confidence of its consumers, soar." The Nielson survey says 94 percent of Norwegians and 86 percent of Indians were optimistic about their job prospects over the next year, while a staggering 93 percent Portuguese and 89 percent Japanese felt their job prospects were either not so good or downright bad.

Global downturn = gain for India India Times 6/24 (“Consumer confidence falls; Indians still optimistic: Survey” 24 Jun, 2008, 2027 hrs IST, PTI http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-3160997,prtpage-1.cms accessed July 15, 2008) NEW DELHI: Indian consumers' spending power might have been adversely impacted by soaring inflation and surging crude prices but they still remain among the most confident in the world, says a survey. The latest online survey conducted by global media and information company Nielsen has revealed that consumer confidence in India has declined by 11 points to 122, the lowest level in the last five years. According to the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index, which measures consumer confidence, major concerns and spending habits in 51 countries, about 58 per cent of Indian respondents do not think that their country is in an economic recession now. However, 42 per cent of Indians believe that the country is currently in an economic recession. Despite the consumer confidence declining by 11 points, Indian consumers

continue to be the most confident in the region and is ranked just behind Norway (129 points). "India is one of the few markets that stand to gain from the grim economic outlook In recent years, India has established itself as a hub for outsourcing technical and support staff; as belts in the world's leading economies tighten, we may well see India's economy and the confidence of its consumers soar," the report said. Globally the latest Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 88 down six points in the last six months the largest single drop the index has recorded in the last three years. India dropped from 133 points in the last leg of the survey in November 2007 to 122 points while US suffered the biggest fall in confidence index, falling 17 points.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

8 India Modeling DA

Indian Consumer Confidence High India has second highest consumer confidence in the world Hindustan Times 6/25 (Suman Layak Mumbai, June 25, 2008 http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/Print.aspx?Id=f3ec126b-6539-49a8-aec3-5442fc71861f © Copyright 2007 Hindustan Times Last Updated: 00:29 IST(25/6/2008) “Indians upbeat about buying, jobs” accessed July 15, 2008) Inflation, 11.05 per cent at last count, seems to have dented Indian consumers’ confidence, but they’re not hitting the panic button. A survey by consultancy firm AC Nielsen shows the Indian consumer confidence index down 13 points to 122, but it’s still the second highest in the world. Norway tops the list at 129. The others don’t feel that optimistic, the global index is down to 88, with Americans, Latvians and New Zealanders high on the pessimism chart. The index is calculated on basis of answers to questions on job outlook, state of personal finance and whether it’s a good time to buy something. The survey covered 500 people each in the 51 countries it was conducted in. Sarang Panchal, AC

Nielsen’s managing director of research for Asia and Australia, said Indians are shopping more and the country is among the top three brand-conscious markets. “Good jobs, hefty pay packets and exposure to lifestyle are pushing Indians towards luxury items.” The survey says Indians are optimistic about employment too. Around 26 per cent felt job market in India is excellent, while 60 per cent felt it was good. Sixty nine per cent were worried about inflation, but 58 per cent said the country was not in the midst of a recession. India is one of the few markets that can benefit from a global recession—cost-cutting in the developed world would lead to more outsourcing.

Even with minor dips, overall confidence remains high Indiantelevision.com 6/25 (Consumer confidence in India has fallen: Nielsen Indiantelevision.com Team (25 June 2008 6:00 pm) http://www.indiantelevision.com/mam/headlines/y2k8/june/junemam72.php accessed July 15, 2008) "Despite the drop in consumer confidence, India ranked second with 122 points, just behind Norway which scored 129 points on The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index. Indian consumers continue to be the most confident in the region, despite posting a dramatic 11-point fall," he adds. Panchal further states that India is one of the few markets that stand to gain from the grim economic outlook. "In recent years, India has established itself as a hub for outsourcing technical and support staff; as belts in the world’s leading economies tighten, we may well see India’s economy along with the confidence of its consumers soar. Portugal, Korea and Japan languished at the bottom of rankings as the world’s most pessimistic nations."

Consumer confidence high Indiantelevision.com 6/25 (Consumer confidence in India has fallen: Nielsen Indiantelevision.com Team (25 June 2008 6:00 pm) http://www.indiantelevision.com/mam/headlines/y2k8/june/junemam72.php accessed July 15, 2008) Good job and financial prospects have sufficiently loosened the Indian purse and 45 per cent of respondents surveyed are optimistic that it is the perfect time to buy things that they would want or need. “Indians are shopping more and are buying well known brands. In a recent luxury brands survey done by Nielsen, India figured amongst the top three most brand conscious countries of the world. This shows that good jobs, hefty pay packages, and global exposure to lifestyle are pushing the Indian consumer towards luxury items. So even when there is an economic recession globally, Indians are splurging and are optimistic about their finances,” says Panchal.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

9 India Modeling DA

Indian Business Confidence High Indian business confidence high Cambridge Network News 7/9 (KPMG LLP Date: 09/07/08 “India asks: what credit crunch?” http://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/news/article/default.aspx?objid=49065 accessed July 15, 2008) With global markets feeling the full impact of the fall-out from the credit crunch, India has shrugged off worries to lead emerging market deal activity. Nina Amin and Ian Gomes, Partners at KPMG, review India’s appetite for acquisitions. India is now the UK’s fourth largest trading partner - behind the US, China and Belgium. India’s private enterprises’ insatiable appetite to acquire foreign assets is catapulting the nation on the global stage. In the 12 months ending early December 2007, acquisitions abroad by Indian companies totaled US$39 billion, five times more than in that for 2006. Despite the turmoil in the global financial markets, bullish Indian companies are continuing to lead the charge for acquisitions within the developed economies. Possibly the highest profiled example so far this year is the acquisition of Ford’s Jaguar and Landrover brands by Tata Motors, India’s number one automaker. In fact, among the final three serious bidders for the brands, two were Indian firms, (Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors). It was Tata Motors who were finally handed the keys in March for a $2.3 billion price tag. The deal gives them a product line-up ranging from the world's cheapest car to some of its more expensive ones. Already this year there

has been news of plans by the Bank of India to increase its presence in the overseas market through acquisitions and the Indian Corporate Affairs Minister has announced plans to streamline procedures for mergers and acquisitions by firms through changes in company laws. At a time when other buyers seem to be retreating from the M&A field, Indian companies’ acquisition activities have not slowed over the past six months.

Business confidence soaring now Cambridge Network News 7/9 (KPMG LLP Date: 09/07/08 “India asks: what credit crunch?” http://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/news/article/default.aspx?objid=49065 accessed July 15, 2008) Ian Gomes said: “It’s also worth bearing in mind that while Indian deals for example have

been at the lower end of the value spectrum, deals involving U.S. companies have typically been worth rather more, getting to the sort of the size at which many buyers and lenders may now be balking as the liquidity squeeze continues. Deals will still happen though so, if China is to be less of a factor, then the challenge for possible M&A targets in the other emerging markets over the next six months is to make themselves as attractive as possible to potential U.S suitors whose roving eye may now be looking elsewhere.” The success of India's outward investment, particularly with

overseas acquisitions, has heralded a new stage in the country's economic development. As investment restrictions have been relaxed and financial regulations have been streamlined, such as, allowing greater access to debt financing from domestic as well as international markets, business confidence has soared. The combination of greater business opportunities and better availability of capital has brought about a mindset change that is giving Indian companies more courage to enter overseas markets via mergers and acquisitions.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

10 India Modeling DA

Regulations Low India is on the right track now-Their few and simple regulations are good for biz con Bhagat`7 (Rasheeda, Buisness Line, Of Business confidence and nuclear strikes, February 15, 2007, http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2007/02/15/stories/2007021500150800.htm)

To arrive at the rankings, 10 indicators, such as start-up, operation, trade, payment of taxes, and so on, were considered by the study, which is the third in a series on South Asia. India is ranked a "top reformer," as five reforms introduced by it have "reduced the time, cost, and hassle for businesses in India to comply with legal and administrative requirements, placing the country among the top 20 reformers worldwide." Though Pakistan ranks higher than India in `ease of doing business', India is ranked the top `reformer' in the region, as it pushed through reforms to "simplify business registration, crossborder trade, and payment of taxes," eased access to credit and strengthened investor protection. "Although the reforms improved India's ranking over last year's, it still ranks relatively low (in ease of doing business) at 134, and stands 41 places after China, which is reforming at a faster pace. The top-ranked countries in the region are the Maldives (53) and Pakistan (74), followed by Bangladesh (88), Sri Lanka (89), Nepal (100), India (134), Bhutan (138), and Afghanistan (162)." "Significant improvements" had been made by India in reducing the "red tape" that entrepreneurs face in doing business, and it "now takes 35 days to register a business in Mumbai compared with 71 days a year ago and 89 days in 2004," comments Ms Caralee McLiesh, one of the authors of the report, noting that it could do much better by efficient implementation of the regulations in place. Arguing that more business-friendly practices and fewer obstacles for entrepreneurs can translate into potential for creating more jobs, Mr Simon Bell, World Bank Manager for Financial and Private Sector Development in South Asia, says: "In India, over 8 million workers have formal jobs in the private sector — in a country of over 1 billion people and a workforce of 458 million. Indian States would greatly benefit from new enterprises and jobs, which can come with more business-friendly regulations." In Pakistan, Karachi is the best of the six cities chosen for the study in terms of doing business easily, while "Quetta imposes the most complex and costly administrative barriers." But court hassles, labour regulations and tax complications remain major problems.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

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No Regulations Coming Now Indian business aren’t expecting major, sudden changes Madan`6 (Tanvi, The Brookings Institution, The Brookings Foreign Policy Studies Energy Security Series India, November 2006, http://www.brookings.edu/reports/2006/11india.aspx)

“Official” and “unofficial” India are keenly aware of energy-related problems and potential solutions. The stumbling block to effective change tends to be implementation, which has often been slow (some prefer the term “measured”) and reactive. Future changes in the energy sector are also not likely to be drastic. Reform will continue, as much a result of necessity as of choice. It will be a slow process, primarily for political and social reasons, but also because of the difficulty of developing an energy strategy as opposed to a cluster of (sometimes contradictory) energy policies. Integrating these policies is apt to be a difficult task.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

***Links***

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Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

13 India Modeling DA

Link – India Models US Regulations US government regulations will be emulated in India Heinz 7 (John: Professor of Environmental Policy and Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences Harvard University http://209.85.141.104/search?q=cache:aw_5uMAh3HMJ:wacsf.vportal.net/launchpad/Client_00057/2007/SF%2520Conference/Holdren_present ation.pdf+united+states+%22reduce+emissions%22+%22india+will+follow%22&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=2&gl=us) Global warming” is a misnomer because it implies some-thing gradual, uniform, & benign, none of which is true; “global climatic disruption” is a more accurate description. The disruption & its impacts are growing more rapidly than was expected. “Dangerous anthropogenic interference” can no longer be avoided. Goal must be to avoid catastrophic interference. This will be a challenge because early & large deflections from the “business as usual” emissions path are required. There is no panacea, but much that can

be done. Most important is putting a price on carbon dioxide emissions. United States is near a political “tipping point” on climate-change policy; after we move, China & India will follow.

CDM proves, India and China will fall in line with the US Canberra Times 5 (August 6, lexis) The aim of the "Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate" is supposedly to promote the use of clean technology between Australia, the United States and developing nations like India and China. But the agreement is merely a weaker version of a mechanism that already exists with the Kyoto protocol. The "Clean Development Mechanism" (CDM) within Kyoto specifically allows developed nations to exchange and invest in clean development technologies within the developing world. Both developed and developing nations have taken huge steps towards implementing and investing in the CDM. The Indian government for example has published a 187-page national strategy for the implementation of the CDM. The report specifically identifies clean development projects for India that developed nations can invest in, such as renewable energy initiatives. China has similarly highlighted some key projects within the CDM like wind energy, biomass gasification and technology efficiencies that would involve investment and technology transfer with the developed world.

India models American environmental policy Sovacool 8 (Benjamin K. Research Fellow in the Energy Governance Program at the Centre on Asia and Globalization, part of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore., 27 Stan. Envtl. L.J. 397, June, lexis) Third, other countries continue to model American-style federalism. Germany, the Republic of Austria, Russian Federation, Spain, India, and Nigeria have all based parts of their government structure on American federalism, choosing to decentralize power by adopting constitutions that are more federalist than the ones that they have replaced. n24 The "American experience with ... federalism," writes John Kincaid, "may have useful implications for an emerging federalist revolution worldwide." n25 Mikhail Gorbachev even stated that "the phenomenon of federalism affects the interests of the entire global community." n26 Given such trends, it seems likely that other countries may model American environmental federalism. If this is the case, ensuring that the United States government addresses renewable energy and climate policy at the proper scale becomes even more important for the signal it sends to the world.

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Link – India Models US Regulations Other countries will model US emissions regulations Podesta 7 (http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/11/energy_chapter.html) A word about the international dimension is necessary. This report’s focus is on what we must do at home to transform the energy foundation of our economy, and so the complex issues involved in devising global solutions are largely beyond its scope. But a few short points are in order. All major carbon-emitting nations, including key developing countries such as China and India, will have to be part of the solution. In fact, most of the future emissions growth will be generated by developing countries who collectively will account for over 75 percent of global emissions growth by 2030. But far-reaching, mandatory U.S. action has to come first. Without that, the United States will have no credibility to argue for broader global participation. American action will spur developing world action in two separate ways. First, the policy changes needed to cut carbon emissions in the United States are job-producing and growthgenerating actions. Other countries will emulate them, just as China, Russia, Brazil, and other countries have adopted building energy codes and appliance efficiency standards based on U.S. models. Second, the technologies needed to promote low-carbon economies are increasingly produced and sold in a global market. When America buys compact fluorescent lamps, most of them are made in China, so China automatically develops the manufacturing technology to use them domestically.

India will follow US lead on climate CongressNow 7 (Dec 11, Geof Koss, CongressNow Staff) Developing countries are exempt from controls under the current Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. The ongoing meeting in Indonesia is designed to map out the path for negotiating a successor treaty. Kerry and others have repeatedly argued that China and India will follow the United States' lead on regulating carbon dioxide. "I think the world wants to see the world's biggest emitter step up," he said this afternoon. "You cant go on with this 'you first' routine. It's got to be a 'follow me.'"

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Link – India Models US Subsides India follow US lead on alternative energy subsidies Boxer 7 (Barabra, Chairman, Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, American University/Sustainable Development Law & Policy, Fall, 8 Sustainable Dev. L. & Pol'y 2, lexis) We must become far more energy efficient and cleaner. It is the federal government's role to create incentives for new and green technologies. Electricity providers must look to renewable energy sources like wind and solar power, or capture and sequester their global warming emissions. Our national automobile fleet must become dramatically more efficient. Our industries and buildings must become state-of-the-art energy savers through retrofitting existing stock and incorporating green design in new construction. America must lead the world in clean technology development and renewable energy. It is essential for our economy's ability to grow and remain internationally competitive. Other countries should become dependent on our clean technologies. It will be these technologies that will free us from our dependencies on foreign energy sources and will enable other economies to achieve development in a carbon-constrained world.

It is also the federal government's role to lead the international community. We will soon become the only industrialized country not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. If we become reengaged with the international community and take the lead on climate change, other nations like India and China will follow. Combating climate change will also help avoid other environmental disasters like species extinction and prevent global political instability from floods, diseases, mass migration, and conflicts over water, food, and other natural resources. By facing this challenge now, we can maximize our chances of avoiding the most dangerous effects of climate change and capitalize on the tremendous opportunities that lie ahead. Our country's response to global warming is not only a measurement of international leadership, but also a reflection of our national character. From the National Environmental Policy Act to the very idea of a "cap-and-trade" this

country has been a pioneer in environmental policy. The time has come for the United States to reclaim its position as the preeminent world leader in environmental policy--and not just global warming.

US action can spur India to reduce emissions Hands 7 (Betsy: http://www.montanastatehouse.com/index.php/betsyhands/its-time-to-deal-with-globalwarming/) The United States’ is the largest single source of global warming pollutants. Our emissions of heat-trapping gases exceed those of China and India combined and amount to about one-quarter of the world’s total. A simple fairness doctrine indicates that we should be equally involved in the solution. More importantly, if the United States does not become the world’s leader in efforts to reverse global warming then the technologies that are needed to redress the problem will not be developed. Without such technologies, China and India will bury the world in global warming pollution in the next few decades. If we value the future, we must immediately initiate actions that will lead to an 80% reduction in the emissions of heat-trapping pollution, particularly carbon dioxide, by 2050. By so leading, we can expect the rest of the world to follow.

United States’ alternative energy policies set an example that countries will follow Robertson 7 (Peter: Chairman of Strategic Planning, Policy, Government and Public Affairs for Chevron Corporation http://www.chevron.com/GlobalIssues/CorporateResponsibility/2006/executive_interview/) Tomorrow's energy supplies must not only be affordable and reliable, but cleaner than ever before. Governments can play a role in stimulating the development and deployment of new energy technologies such as carbon sequestration, next-generation ethanol fuels, and advanced battery systems. In many cases, it is impossible to commercialize promising technologies without government support and partnership. As one of the largest energy consumers in the United States, the U.S.

government can set an example by requiring agencies to use less energy, providing incentives to increase energy efficiency and promoting conservation efforts. More fundamental, governments have a responsibility to lead open and honest debates on how to balance continued economic growth with our shared desire to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. After all, energy is more than mobility, light and heat. It is a fundamental driver of global economic growth and opportunity. Policy makers must articulate solutions that will enable both goals to be reached or be prepared to propose sensible trade-offs. Policies geared toward absolutes – economic growth regardless of environmental consequences or emissions reduction at any cost – are bound to be unsustainable. Ultimately, we must all be better informed and learn about these issues.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

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India Only Models US India will only follow US environmental standards Eco worldly 8 (June 26, http://ecoworldly.com/2008/06/26/should-us-be-held-to-higher-environmental-standards/) If the US can commit to higher environmental standards - mainly because it is the main polluter anyway, it will significantly make it easier for the world to engage other major polluters such as China and India in the global climate response. China and India, like many developing nations accuse the US and other developed nations of having done damage to the environment for longer periods to time. Unlike the US however, many of the developing nations have approved international climate agreements, a critical first step in addressing the problem. However, developing nations lack the werewithal to produce the requisite greneer techonlogies as well as the political and economic might to influence a global response. On the contrary, the US has all this in abundance but seriously lacks the moral aptitude because of its stance on the global climate agreement.

With its financial and technological might, the US is well-positioned to build a low-emissions environment, and therefore set an example to the rest of the world. It is a paradoxic sham that the US assumes a claim to higher moral standards in protecting democracy worldwide yet refuses due to selfinterest to commit to global agreements against what scientists have described as the “greatest threat facing humanity” in our time.

The proposition that the US can go it alone is hurtful to global efforts because it makes other countries, chiefly China, to engage in finger pointing without addressing the problem. As the world’s leading power, the US needs to show farsighted leadership in efforts to respond to threats posed by climate change. “By committing to higher environmental standards, the US can make it a priority to develop and prove the effectiveness of alternative forms of energy, and use this as a basis to lobby and mobilize lessdeveloped nations,” states US in the World, an initiative to get Americans involved in worldly matters. “By acting first, the U.S. and other rich countries that are most responsible for global warming - because they burn the most oil, gas, and coal - can set a powerful example for others to follow. By committing themselves to developing alternative energy

sources, technologically advanced countries like the United States can create new jobs and industries at home while jump-starting the international effort to slow global warming and influencing the energy choices of less advanced countries that are on the brink of making big new energy investments,” adds US in the World.

US has the unique ability to influence other countries Scherr 6 (Jacob, Director of Natrual Resource Defense Council http://www.nrdc.org/international/osuperpower.asp) As a young lawyer at NRDC in the 1970s, I found it incredibly inspiring to watch the United States lead the world in the fight to protect our planet from mounting pollution and resource degradation. I would never have imagined then that decades later -- as we enter a time of unprecedented global change -- the leadership of the United States would be so blind to the world's growing environmental threats. What makes this situation particularly hard to fathom is that no single nation has more to lose by refusing to confront

our current environmental problems -- or more to contribute toward solving them -- than the United States. As shareholders in the world's largest economy, Americans have grown more accustomed to material comfort than any other people. Yet with resources such as oil, land and fresh water in finite supply -- and with consumer demand in China and other nations rapidly increasing -- we simply cannot sustain our current rate of consumption. At the same time, we are the world's biggest polluter.

America's status as both the wealthiest and most polluting country on earth means that we must be a central player in any effort to protect the global environment. Yet despite our unparalleled influence -and the growing pressures on our planet's natural systems -- the United States has increasingly failed to take a leadership role on environmental protection. No other country in the world is as well positioned as the United States to stimulate the kinds of sweeping changes that are critical right now. If we embrace technologies that help us live more efficiently and actively cooperate with other countries on environmental issues, we can sustain our societies without overwhelming the world's ecosystems. Otherwise, what kind of planet will we leave our children?

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

17 India Modeling DA

India Only Models US US leadership in alt energy k/t global action – only the US can be the instigator Udall 8 (Tom, Chief Counsel to the Department of Health and Environment http://www.tomudall.house.gov/) Thanks to the work of activists from Al Gore to the Union of Concerned Scientists, people from all walks of life finally have begun to pay attention to global warming. Large majorities in countries around the world now acknowledge that global warming constitutes a serious and immediate threat to the world’s ecology and economy. Yet strong Congressional action to address the problem often has seemed a distant hope. The world wants action, but we have little experience with the kind and magnitude of action that the problem demands. However, it will require renewed trust between citizens and government, and between nations. Unfortunately, that trust has not yet been built. The science underpinning the need for emissions reductions is indisputable, but the American people must see that a plan for tackling global warming can be good for business and workers. On the international level, no country wants to accept curbs on emissions until they know that other countries will also do their part. The United States, which produces 36 percent of the world's carbon emissions, must play a leadership role on this issue, but we cannot succeed alone. Through our example and our diplomacy, we must build a global consensus that every country will do what it takes to protect our planet. We are all in this together, and the solution requires a global effort.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

***Impacts***

18 India Modeling DA

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

19 India Modeling DA

Regulations Kill Indian Economy Regulations hurt Indian utility companies Victor`8 (David G., professor at Stanford Law School and director of the Program on Energy & Sustainable Development; he is also adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations., Asia’s Achilles Heel, http://www.newsweek.com/id/117004)

India is also plagued by administrative weakness—and the problems are getting worse as the Indian economy takes off and government struggles to address the byproducts of rapid economic growth. Large pockets of the Indian power grid are unreliable because Indian policymakers tinker with electricity prices in an effort to deliver political favors. (Electricity supplied to most Indian farms costs almost nothing and in some parts of the country is actually free. India has many farmers and they vote; politicians court them with stunts like free power. Poor accounting systems allow others who steal power to blame the farmers.) That tinkering has put most Indian power utilities into bankruptcy. The problems would be even worse if most of the power sector were not actually owned by the central and state governments in India, which shuffle money around to keep the companies afloat. Unable to get reliable power that is essential to industrial production, most large power users build their own power supplies. By some estimates, one third of the country's power plants are of this "captive" variety—by design, disconnected from the government-controlled grid so they are more reliable and also immune from political meddling.

Indian economy dependent on cheap energy International Herald Tribune 7 (Nov 16, Elisabeth Rosenthal, The New York Times Media Group) But in recent weeks, officials of the International Energy Agency, created to advise the industrialized nations, have stressed that if a solution is not found to curb the growth of energy use and improve energy efficiency in India and China, the trend will become harder and harder to reverse. China and India are building huge numbers of power plants to meet energy needs over the next 10 years, and 90 percent will burn coal. Coal is a highly polluting but relatively inexpensive source of power, making it the choice of developing countries. While technology exists to make coal plants somewhat cleaner, it is expensive. ''What choices China and India make will be with us for 60 years,'' said Birol, the agency economist. ''These are locked-in investments. Here in Europe - in Brussels, in Paris - we talk about biofuels and photovoltaic cells. But in the world it is coal that increases most in the energy mix, especially in India in China.'' Likewise, choices made in construction and manufacturing today in developing countries will leave a long-lasting legacy. Cheap but low-efficiency appliances like refrigerators and air conditioners being manufactured in countries like China to supply upwardly mobile populations will create emissions for years to come. In terms of floor space, half the world's construction is in China, Birol said, and the quality of windows and walls is poor, so the resulting buildings waste enormous amounts of energy.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

20 India Modeling DA

Regulations Decrease Biz Con Less regulation increases business confidence Bhagat`7 (Rasheeda, Buisness Line, Of Business confidence and nuclear strikes, February 15, 2007, http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2007/02/15/stories/2007021500150800.htm)

It is unlikely that anyone will be surprised by the finding of the World Bank's latest report on South Asia that "doing business became easier in India in 2005-2006," but Chennai and Bangalore are going to be jealous of Hyderabad emerging at the top as the Indian city with "most business-friendly regulations". Hyderabad, the city that the former Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister, Mr Chandrababu Naidu, so skilfully plotted on the global map, continues to have "the most business-friendly regulations," says the study titled Doing Business in South Asia 2007. Released on Tuesday, the study places India among the top 20 reformers worldwide, and covers various aspects of doing business in 12 cities. In the `ease of doing business' category, Hyderabad is followed by Bangalore and Jaipur. The last might come as a surprise, being placed well above Chennai, which is somewhere in the middle of the list, but is a tribute to the management of the BJP-ruled State led by Ms Vasundhara Raje. Compare this with Kolkata, being the worst among the 12, with Mumbai just a little ahead, "as these cities impose the most complex and costly business regulations. Typically, large urban centres such as Mumbai and Kolkata have a high volume of business, so regulatory and administrative bottlenecks create serious congestion," says the study, which puts Bhubaneswar, Chandigarh, Chennai, Lucknow, New Delhi, Patna and Ranchi in the middle of the list, in that order. Hyderabad is the preferred destination for businesses because it only takes 35 days to register a property here compared to 138 days in New Delhi, or Kolkata, where it takes almost 155 days. Import and export of goods happen fastest through the Chennai and Kolkata ports, as opposed to Mumbai, says the report, adding: "States can learn from each other in the areas of business regulation. For example, it is easiest to start a business in Jaipur. Closing a business is easiest in Bangalore, while registering a property is easiest in Hyderabad."

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

21 India Modeling DA

Econ Decline = India/Pakistan War The government will try to distract the people during an economic decline by toying with nationalism-This makes conflict with Pakistan more likely Business Recorder`2k (Global News Wire, WHAT FORCES INDIA, PAKISTAN TO BACK DOWN IN KASHMIR?, December 27, 2000 Lexis)

Looking at the domestic politics of each side, presumably it's a lot harder for Pakistan to calm things down on their side of the Kashmir conflict than it is for India. "Well, yes, in the sense that it may be a lot harder for the government of General Musharraf to rein in the Islamic militant groups who're doing much of the fighting in Kashmir. But in the end, it may be equally difficult for India and Pakistan to step back from the brink in Kashmir, because Kashmir is far more than a territorial dispute; it's intimately linked to the national identity of both sides - with Pakistan's identity as an Islamic state and India's identity as a secular state." Speaking of India's identity as a secular state, isn't that challenged by Prime Minister Vajpayee's statements in support of a campaign to build a Hindu shrine over the ruins of the Babri mosque in Ayodhya, which was destroyed by a mob of Hindu extremists in 1992? "Yes, but Vajpayee is playing a delicate political game. And that's taking India into another dangerous phase, where the ruling Bharatiya Janata party is revealing its hand, trying to exploit Hindu nationalist sentiments around the Ayodhya issue. Some observers believe that he may be doing this as something of a distraction for his supporters, trying to create political space for himself to push through tough economic measures, which he desperately needs to do. The government is basically bankrupt, and India is facing an economic slowdown. We're heading back into a terrible mess, but in a democracy as politically fractured as India's, it's hard to cut government spending. The alternative is privatisation - the government owns everything from hotels to car factories, and all they've managed to privatise in recent years was a bakery - but there's strong ideological resistance. That may be tempting Vajpayee to distract people with the Ayodhya issue.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

22 India Modeling DA

India/Pakistan War Goes Nuclear Indo-Pakistani conflict goes nuclear Deane`2 (John Deane, Chief Political Correspondent, PA News, KASHMIR CONFLICT 'COULD SPIRAL INTO NUCLEAR WAR', May 27, 2002, Lexis)

The bitter dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir could escalate into a nuclear confrontation, Foreign Secretary Jack Straw warned today. In a speech at the German foreign ministry in Berlin Mr Straw, who is en route to a visit to India and Pakistan, underlined the gravity of the situation. Mr Straw cautioned: "The current tension, and the build-up of military forces in Kashmir, could all too easily spiral out of control into a conventional, and then nuclear conflict of a kind we have never seen before. "We sometimes add the words 'incalculable risks' in such circumstances. But whilst we cannot be precise, the risks are all too easy to describe. Death, destruction, disease, economic collapse, affecting not just the immediate war theatre but many parts of the subcontinent and lasting for years. "So it is imperative that a better way out of this conflict is found; a way that sees the end of cross-border terrorism and the support for all forms of terrorism; then a de-escalation of military preparedness; then a constructive dialogue to resolve this longstanding bilateral argument over this beautiful but benighted area of Kashmir."

The conflict will go nuclear Khan`4(Khurshid Khan 2004 Most recent cited source is from 11/30/04 “Limited War Under the Nuclear Umbrella and its Implications for South Asia” General Staff Officer Grade 1 in the Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs Directorate, Strategic Plans Division, JSHQ, Pakistan. http://www.stimson.org/southasia/pdf/khurshidkhan.pdf)

Since the creation of India and Pakistan, both countries have been involved in several conflicts that continue to pose the risk of inadvertent war. These conflicts include the Kashmir dispute, territorial disputes such as Siachen, a nuclear arms race, and water disputes. Unlike in the past, any future war between the two countries, no matter how limited it might be, will have the potential to escalate into a full-scale nuclear war in light of the changed strategic environment. Although the nuclear tests conducted by India and Pakistan in May 1998 have radically changed the strategic landscape in South Asia, nuclear weapons have yet to assure strategic stability in South Asia despite tall claims by various quarters. The question of stability in South Asia cannot be isolated from global conventional and nuclear weapons policies. The US, Chinese, Indian, Pakistani, and to some extent Russian equation constitute a nuclear chain affecting not only the stability of South Asia but also that of other regions.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

23 India Modeling DA

India/Pakistan – AT: Limited Nuclear War Even a limited nuclear exchange kills billions Times of India 10/4/07 http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/World/Indo-Pak_nuclear_war_could_cause_one_billion_starvation_deaths/articleshow/2428228.cms

LONDON: A nuclear war between India and Pakistan would not only have catastrophic affects in these two countries or their neighbours, but it could cause one billion people to starve to death across the world. Hundreds of millions of more would die from disease and conflicts over food in the aftermath of any such war. US medical expert Ira Helfand will on Thursday present this horrifying scenario in London during a conference at the Royal Society of Medicine. "A limited nuclear war taking place far away poses a threat that should concern everyone on the planet," the New Scientist magazine quoted Helfand as saying. "It is appropriate, given the data, to be frightened," said Helfand, who is an emergency-room doctor in Northampton, Massachusetts, US, and a co-founder of the US anti-nuclear group, Physicians for Social Responsibility. Helfand has tried to map out the global consequences of India and Pakistan exploding 100 Hiroshimasized nuclear warheads. Referring to earlier studies that have suggested that in such a conflict, the annual growing season in the world's most important grain-producing areas would shrink by between 10 and 20 days, he said that the world is ill-prepared to cope with such a disaster. "Global grain stocks stand at 49 days, lower than at any point in the past five decades," he said, adding: "These stocks would not provide any significant reserve in the event of a sharp decline in production. We would see hoarding on a global scale." Countries, which import more than half of their grain, such as Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan, would be particularly vulnerable, along with 150 million people in north Africa, which imports 45 percent of its food, Helfand said. Many of the 800 million around the world who are already officially malnourished would also suffer, he added. He went on to say that the global death toll from a nuclear war in Asia "could exceed one billion from starvation alone." Food shortages could also trigger epidemics of cholera, typhus and other diseases, as well as armed conflicts, which together could kill "hundreds of millions". Helfand further told the magazine that the smoke would warm the stratosphere by up to 50°C, accelerating the natural reactions that attack ozone. "No-one has ever thought about this before...I think there is a potential for mass starvation," he cautioned. Endorsing Helfand’s views, John Pike, director of the US think tank, globalsecurity.org, said the fallout from a nuclear war between India and Pakistan "would be far more devastating for other countries than generally appreciated." "Local events can have global consequences," he added.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

24 India Modeling DA

India Key to Global Economy Indian economic growth is key to the global economy Srinivasan`6 (T.N., Stanford University, Working Paper No. 286 China, India and the World Economy, July 2006, http://209.85.141.104/search?q=cache:4TaC67MOChYJ:scid.stanford.edu/pdf/SCID286.pdf)

The IMF (2005) recognizes that policy makers in India are actively seeking to strengthen India’s global linkages and to accelerate its integration with the World economy. Success in these efforts would increase the role of India in the World economy. The report explicitly refers to one of the mechanisms, India’s import demand, through which this would come about. To wit, A dynamic and open Indian economy would have an important impact on the world economy. If India continues to embrace globalization and reform, Indian imports could increasingly operate as a driver of global growth as it is one of a handful of economies forecast to have a growing working-age population over the next 40 years. Some 75-110 million will enter the labor force in the next decade, which shouldprovided these entrants are employed - fuel an increase in savings and investment given the higher propensity for workers to save.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

***AFF Answers***

25 India Modeling DA

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

26 India Modeling DA

N/U – Indian Economy Low US downturn hurts Indian economy CNBC News 7/15 (“Bullish on telecom, media, FMCG, banking: Lotus AM” 2008-07-15 12:12:31 Source : IMW/CNBC-TV18 http://news.moneycontrol.com/india/news/mf-interview/bullish-telecommediafmcgbankinglotus-am/20/30/346979 accessed July 15, 2008) Q: IT has been big problem today. What did you make of the Infosys numbers? Do you see more downside in the sector now? A: The problem with IT is that there was a strong bounceback and people thought it was an oversold sector but there was no conviction buying. Funds were not taking positions in IT across the bounceback. Our consistent theory is that one cannot just take positions based on the rupee-dollar rate. If there is an increase in the credit cycle realizations and if the utilization rate starts

dropping, margins will start hurting and that will have a bigger impact on the sector Most of the guidance was in line with the expectations of a strong US recovery. Towards the end of the year, guidance was moving up. But now with in-line guidance coming in, people are getting wary about whether that kind of a take-off will materialize if the underlying US economy is not doing too well. The short-term picture, at least for the foreseeable couple of quarters, is hazy until some visibility comes on the underlying demand and customers to justify a conviction position in this sector. Q: What do you expect by way of global cues? Are you sensing or smelling some bad news from the US markets? Are you preparing for some severe downside because the global cues? A: Whenever the government has to step in, it means that the country is in a

major crisis and we are talking huge numbers here. USD 5 trillion of mortgage assets are controlled by two government entities or semi-government entities. Stock prices are down by 75% already. We expect shareholders to pay in the Bear Stearns case.

High inflation hurting Indian economy Smith 7/13 (“Near-term risks rising in Mideast, India and China but the fundamentals remain excellent” Author: Justin Smith Published: 13-07-2008 Source: BI-ME Buisiness Intelligence Middle East. www.bi-me.com/doc_print.php?id=22419 accessed July 15, 2008)

Dangerously high inflation Both India and China are tightening because of inflation. Inflation in India hit a 13-year high of 11.63% in June, more than 600bps above the RBI's comfort zone. China's CPI moved up 7.7% year-on-year in May. In China, most of the current push in CPI is coming from food (although we should be more concerned about non-food factory gate prices now rising at over 8%). In India, while food prices are rising too the big driver of the wholesale price index is fuel and raw materials, which are filtering down to the household level more quickly than in China. Fuel prices were hiked in India in February (by a nominal 3% to 5% for gasoline and HSD) and more recently in June (by 9% to17%), while Beijing recently hiked retail gas prices by almost 17% in June, after a 20% move in November 2007. Both governments have tried to delay these hikes but with global oil likely to remain above US$120 for the next few months, more hikes will have to come. If India passes on the full impact of global oil prices to the local consumer, inflation could easily approach 25%. What is even more worrying in India's case is that since aggregate demand is still strong, wages are rising.

Indian growth low CNBC News 7/15 (“Bullish on telecom, media, FMCG, banking: Lotus AM” 2008-07-15 12:12:31 Source : IMW/CNBC-TV18 http://news.moneycontrol.com/india/news/mf-interview/bullish-telecommediafmcgbankinglotus-am/20/30/346979 accessed July 15, 2008)

The markets got off to a volatile start this week. Traders remained tentative on the back of more bad news from the US financial sectors. The Nifty closed at 4,039 down 9 points, while the Sensex shut shop at 13,330 down 139 points. Ajay Bagga, CEO, Lotus AM, said things are looking pretty bad globally. "The situation is grim in terms of financials in the US. Any deterioration there could see a further selloff, and emerging markets would face the brunt of it. Things are not looking too good in the short-term for Indian markets as well. It will stay largely determined by global cues and that is not a short-term remedy which can be corrected in the short-term. It is going to take time and India will follow in that sequence.".

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

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N/U – Consumer Confidence Low Consumer confidence low Indiantelevision.com 6/25 (Consumer confidence in India has fallen: Nielsen Indiantelevision.com Team (25 June 2008 6:00 pm) http://www.indiantelevision.com/mam/headlines/y2k8/june/junemam72.php accessed July 15, 2008) MUMBAI: The Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index has found that consumer confidence in India has fallen by 11 points to 122, the lowest level in the last five runs of the survey. The Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index measures consumer confidence, major concerns and spending habits in 511 countries. 42 per cent of the Indian online consumers who took part in the survey believe that India is currently in an economic recession. Globally the latest Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 88, down six points in the last six months. This is the largest single drop the Index has recorded in the last three years. India dropped from 133 points in the last leg of the survey in November 2007 to 122 points. Across countries, the US suffered the biggest fall in Confidence Index, dropping 17 points. Overall, Asia Pacific consumers are still amongst the most confident in the world. Five out of the global top 10 countries hail from Asia Pacific and the overall total for the region is one point above the global average.

Global recession driving down Indian consumer confidence Indiantelevision.com 6/25 (Consumer confidence in India has fallen: Nielsen Indiantelevision.com Team (25 June 2008 6:00 pm) http://www.indiantelevision.com/mam/headlines/y2k8/june/junemam72.php accessed July 15, 2008) 58 per cent of Indian respondents do not think that their country is in an economic recession now. When asked, out of these 58 per cent, 38 per cent consider a global recession likely to hit India in the next 12 months. Regionally in Asia Pacific, two in five (42 per cent) of the consumers believe that their country is currently in the midst of a recession. During times of economic slowdown, Indian consumers rank inflation as their biggest concern (69 per cent), this being the tenth highest percentage globally for a country worrying about inflation. “India's inflation rate of 8.1 per cent is the highest in several years. In a country where economies are growing on an unprecedented scale, concerns about inflation are understandable as this may mark a stop in the Indian growth story,” said Panchal.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

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No Link – India won’t model India won’t model US energy policy – they see the economic detriment Senate Document 7 (Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, “New Analysis: Carbon Mandate would harm Consumers, jobs, economy, Nov 15, lexis) "The energy supply crisis in the United States is sending jobs to China, destroying our manufacturing communities and forcing consumers to pay even higher energy bills. If we pass cap-and-trade legislation without increasing energy supplies, our country could face an economic catastrophe, and what's left of our good-paying jobs could vanish." Senator Barrasso: "There is no incentive in this bill for China and India to follow our lead if we are going to weaken our economy, lose jobs, and penalize companies. Hard-working taxpayers need clean, affordable energy, period. Wyoming has tremendous energy resources which cannot be ignored.

India will never implement policies to reduce emissions Dessler 6 (Andrew: associate professor in the Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M University http://sciencepoliticsclimatechange.blogspot.com/2006/07/getting-china-and-india-onboard.html) You often hear the statement that China and India will never sign on to any agreement that requires them to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions because it will hurt their economic growth. See, for example, this editorial, where they argue: Consider China and India, the world's emerging economic powerhouses. Ecstatic over their rapid ascent from mass poverty, both nations do not see shuttering their manufacturing and industrial plants to remedy a problem created mostly by the United States and Europe as an opportunity. They see it as a bad joke. So Beijing opens about one new coal-fueled power plant each week and New Delhi reduces environmental regulations on the mining industry and both tolerate air pollution so extreme it makes Los Angeles seem like Eden.

India views the United States as losing leadership – they don’t want to emulate our policies anymore Mahbubani 7 (Kishore: Dean at the LKY School of Public Policy http://www.globalenvision.org/library/8/1436) A century ago, we lived in the Western era of human history. Japan emerged as a Western power because there seemed to be no alternative to Western power in 1868. Japanese Meiji reformer Yukichi Fukuzawa said: "Our immediate policy, therefore, should be to lose no time in waiting for the enlightenment of our neighbouring countries in order to join them in developing Asia, but rather to depart from their ranks and cast our lot with the civilized countries of the West. Sun Yat Sen also acknowledged superiority of the West: "We, the modern people of China, are all useless, but if in the future we use Western civilization as a model, we can easily turn weakness into strength, and the old into the new. Similarly, India's first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru said: "The search for the sources of India's strength and for her deterioration and decay is long and intricate. Yet the recent causes of that decay are obvious enough. She fell behind in the march of technique, and Europe, which had long been backward in many matters, took the lead in technical progress.3 Would these Asian statesmen, if alive today, readily acknowledge the superiority of the West? With the West losing its magical place in the human imagination, it is also likely that the

desire to emulate the West will diminish in India and the rest of the world. India will continue with some of the finest political traditions it has inherited from the West: Democracy, a respect for human rights and respect for the rule of law. But increasingly, Indians will claim these traditions as their own, just as Western philosophers happily accepted the work of Islamic rationalists and claimed their ideas as their own.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

29 India Modeling DA

No Link – No Modeling Election year means no substantial changes in Indian energy policy Hindustan Times 7/8 (Gaurav Choudhury, Hindustan Times New Delhi, July 08, 2008 Last Updated: 20:14 IST(8/7/2008) “Left turn is all right for industry” With inputs from Indulal PM in Mumbai) http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/Print.aspx?Id=5e114454-aec74d26-a1d1-722d57674914 © Copyright 2007 Hindustan Times accessed July 15, 2008) Some industry captains and analysts said with elections round the year, not many of these initiatives would get a heads up, while many felt otherwise. “We are concerned about the declining business confidence in the economy and extremely worried about any developing governance vacuum emerging out of this political crisis,” President of Federation of India Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci) Rajeev Chandrashekhar said. Among other proposals, the Left parties have been strongly opposing opening the floodgates for foreign direct investment (FDI) in retail, fearing it would hurt the interests of neighbourhood kirana stores. A government-commissioned study carried out by Indian Council for Research in International Economic Relations however, found that big corporations’ retail foray would not drive away small stores out of business. Organised retailers are hoping the Left’s withdrawal of support would open up the sector further. “We believe the government has chance to open up some sectors," said Kishore Biyani, Managing Director of Future Group that runs the Big Bazaar chain of stores. JSW Steel Vice Chairman and President of Assocham Sajjan Jindal said the withdrawal of support from the Left was anticipated. “We support the nuclear deal in the interest of country and whosoever supports the government on this issue, deserves to be praised,” Jindal said. Economists also felt that the fresh political developments were unlikely to

have any bearing on the broader economy. “The momentum in the economy has more to do with external factors such as oil prices and less with domestic political developments,” said Delhi-based economist TK Bhaumik. He said the government would most likely maintain a “status quo” on the economic policy front. “With elections not many months away, the government would adopt a pragmatic approach and maintain the current stand on many politically contentious matters,” he said.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

30 India Modeling DA

No Link - No Modeling – Enron Enron turned Asia off of modeling the U.S. Morris`2 (Regan, Associated Press, Enron collapse casts doubt on American model for deregulating energy in Asia, January 23, 2002, Lexis)

Cronyism, cooking the books, nepotism - when it comes to corrupt business practices, Asia is infamous. With reports of corruption swirling around the bankruptcy of Enron Corp., many around the continent are chuckling at the energy giant's failure to practice what it and other American companies preach - good corporate governance, deregulation and freewheeling competition. The scandal is immediately affecting Enron subsidiaries in Asia's energy sector. Moreover - on top of the California energy crisis - the Enron debacle has led many in the region to rethink the American path of energy deregulation that Asian nations had begun to adopt. "Obviously what's happened with Enron is going to affect the way that regulators think," said Rohan Dalziell, a Hong Kong-based power analyst with ABN Amro. "It will cause regulators to go back and review criteria. It will slow down the process." Asia's power generation has historically been closely guarded by governments, and many operations were bloated and inefficient. But Asian governments had been embracing Enron's creed: open up power sectors to competition in hopes of higher investment returns and lower consumer costs. Now, a slower deregulation process will likely mean more years of power monopolies and possibly higher prices for consumers throughout Asia. Immediately, the future of some of Enron's power plants and other assets in Asia remains uncertain, analysts say. The company's trading office in Singapore has filed for bankruptcy, as have Enron Japan Corp. and its three Japanese affiliates. Enron's stake in a joint venture in South Korea is for sale, and the Philippines government is thinking of taking over Enron's stake in a venture there. A dlrs 2.9 billion electricity plant in India raises questions about Enron's dealings there. Enron subsidiary Dabhol Power Co. - the largest foreign investment project in India - already was at the center of a dispute between Enron and India. The plant, which operated briefly and has yet to be fully built, triggered charges of bribe taking on both sides. Enron claims the plant's sole customer - the Maharashtra State Electricity Board - failed to pay its bills and the Indian federal government did not honor payment guarantees. The electricity board claims that Enron's prices were too high and the contract needed to be renegotiated. The government has a claim against Enron because it stopped providing electricity. Some in Asia see the Enron scandal reflecting on the whole business ethic that Americans have espoused for the rest of the world. "The United States will no longer be able to preach about crony capitalism or corporate governance," read a recent editorial in India's Business Standard newspaper. "And while there's little doubt that we have no dearth of cronyism in India, for the moment, at least, it is those who supported Enron's Dabhol misadventure who are squirming." In Asia, Enron had a cult following and its business methods were widely studied. Indy Sarker, a Hong Kong-based energy analyst with Deutsche Bank AG, says too may people "went gaga over Enron" and foolishly admired its high-risk investment strategies. Enron's large appetite for risk was not restricted by American regulators, and analysts say that Asian regulators are likely to be more conservative after the Enron collapse. ABN Amro's Dalziell says Asian regulators may also feel lost because they will have to create a new model for deregulation. "Everybody right up until the beginning of last year was following the American model of competition," he said. "But then you had two things ... the California crisis where energy prices were forced through the roof and companies (were) close to bankruptcy. Secondly you had the Enron collapse." Asian state-run power companies are generally not working well either, he says, because they're "producing very low returns." Vijay Sethu, a former Enron official in Singapore, agreed regulators will likely come up with a more conservative plan for Asian energy and - in the absence of Enron - will have a hard time salvaging the free-market dogma. "When it came to deregulation and competition, it was Enron," he says. "They were the real champions."

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

31 India Modeling DA

Turn – Oil dependence bad for Indian econ Diversifying away from oil key to Indian econ South Asai Biz 6 (May 10, http://www.southasiabiz.com/2006/05/indian_oil_import_expense_beco.html) In 2005-06 Indian oil import bill reached to $44.64 billion and it was 52% more than the previous year. In last fiscal year, 99.4 million tonnes of crude oil were imported by India for a price of $ 38.77 billion while 11.67 million tonnes of petroleum products cost for $ 5.86 billion. In 2004-05, India imported 95.86 million tonnes of crude oil for $ 25.98 billion while was spent to import 10.47 million tonnes of petroleum products. This statistics has been published by Petroleum Ministry and here we can see that there has a slight increase in import quantity but the increase in price is too much. 52% is really not a matter of joke. If the price of oil continues to rise or even remain at this level then

Indian economy is going be badly affected- there is no doubt about it. If India wants to sustain The billion dollar question is: What should Indian government do now? Indian government should try to attract massive foreign investment in exploration of gas, coal and oil in India. India should seriously engage itself with the Middle Eastern countries and its neighboring countries to secure a long term deal of oil and gas. Indian government should think of investing more on hydro electricity projects in Bhutan.

Indian government should allocate more fund in the research and generation of alternative energy sources like wind energy. India is already the fourth largest producer of wind energy in the world.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

32 India Modeling DA

Turn - Renewables Key to Indian Economy Renewable energy key to fuel India’s economy Kalshian`6 (Rakesh, Info Change.com, India News Service, Introduction: Energy versus emissions: The big challenge of the new millennium, June 2006, Lexix)

Admittedly, energy is a complex subject and there are no easy answers to these questions. A mix of foresight, courage and inventiveness will determine what forms of energy India chooses to power its economic growth with and whether it could leapfrog into a sustainable energy regime without losing its competitive edge in the world economy. But the way things are moving now, the future doesn’t look all that bright and sustainable. A draft report on energy policy authored by Kirit S Parekh, member (energy) of the Planning Commission, paints a rather dismal picture. For instance, in the business-as-usual scenario, India will exhaust its oil reserves in 22 years, its gas reserves in 30 years and its much-vaunted coal reserves in 80 years. More alarming, the coal reserves might disappear in less than 40 years if India continues to grow at 8% a year. But things might begin to look up if India is able to harness alternative energy sources, such as hydel, biofuels, solar energy, and even nuclear energy. For instance, it estimates that wind energy can generate 10 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) and energy plantations could contribute 30 to 60 mtoe from about 10 million hectares. This would not only create livelihoods but also provide income in the form of carbon credits that can be sold at 20 euros per tonne of carbon dioxide. Solar energy could contribute a useful 2.4 billion tonnes of oil equivalent for 10 million hectares, says the report. In the long run, so several gurus of energy have predicted, India may have to move towards greater use of renewable forms of energy, for which it has abundant resources. Globally, the renewable energy industry is no longer in a state of infancy, with global investments in 2004 totaling $28 billion as compared to $6 billion in 1995. Total installed capacity based on renewable energy was 155,000 MW in 2004, of which wind power itself totaled 48,000 MW. A focused, goal-oriented programme of R&D would bring down costs of renewable energy devices and meet the needs of a diverse range of applications and customers. The Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol was supposed to provide the necessary impetus to popularising renewable technologies in countries like India, but unfortunately, renewable energy CDM projects are conspicuous by their absence.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

33 India Modeling DA

Turn – Indian Alt. Energy key to stop warming Indian emissions reductions key to solve catastrophic warming International Herald Tribune 7 (Nov 16, Elisabeth Rosenthal, The New York Times Media Group) The average global temperature will rise to a devastating level by 2030 if China and India do not begin curbing energy use and carbon emissions immediately, according to a prediction by officials of the International Energy Agency. Speaking at the World Energy Congress, the officials forecast Wednesday that 60 percent of the global increase in emissions from 2005 to 2030 would come from India and China. By next year, China will overtake the United States as the leader in carbon emissions, said the Paris-based agency, which was founded by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Some studies suggest that this has already occurred. Citing a report from the agency last week, the officials said that if current development trends continued unchanged, total carbon emissions would rise by 57 percent by 2030, leading to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius, or 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations entity that presents its final report in Valencia, Spain, on Saturday, has estimated that global emissions would cause warming of 1.8 to 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Many scientists say 2 degrees is the threshold beyond which there would be significant social and economic disruption. The agency officials said that by 2015, China, the United States and India would rank first, second and third, respectively, in global emissions, accounting for more than half the world's total. ''So without moving these three countries, we should expect no realistic results in reducing emissions,'' said Fatih Birol, chief economist of the agency and the report's chief author.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

34 India Modeling DA

Turn - ↑ Growth=War India’s economic growth increases the chances of conflict-Military spending and nationalism Gulf News`3 (Gulf News, HUSAIN HAQQANI The writer is a visiting scholar at Carnegie Endow-ment for International Peace in Washington D.C. He served as ambassador to Sri Lanka and as adviser to Prime Ministers Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto., GLOOMY OUTLOOK FOR S. ASIA, March 29, 2003)

India's relative economic health could encourage anti-Pakistan hardliners in New Delhi to try and "spend Pakistan into the ground" - a calculated policy of increasing the cost of military competition to the point where Pakistan's economy collapses completely. India is already turning increasingly towards Hindu nationalism, which is further aggravating ties with Pakistan. Inadequately performing economies in South Asia also create the risk of India and Pakistan externalising the resentments of their people. Instead of allowing such frightening prospects manifest themselves as reality, both need to start looking at ways to minimise the unsettling effects of the global economic turndown on South Asia's precarious political and social balance.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

35 India Modeling DA

No India/Pakistan War India and Pakistan won’t go to war-The nukes made them think Business Recorder`2k (Global News Wire, WHAT FORCES INDIA, PAKISTAN TO BACK DOWN IN KASHMIR?, December 27, 2000 Lexis)

Last year India and Pakistan almost fought a war over Kashmir. Now they appear set to make peace, with India extending its unilateral cease-fire against separatist groups there, and now Pakistan beginning to withdraw its troops. Why the change? "These are the most hopeful developments in years, and I think they're occurring because of how close the two sides came to another war last year over Pakistan's Kargil incursion. There seems to be a realisation now that both sides will lose badly if there is another war. And of course the fact that both sides now have nuclear weapons creates an added anxiety. There's a better understanding by the leadership in both India and Pakistan that something has to be done to reduce Kashmir's potential to be flash point that ignites conflict between the two. And, of course, the Americans have helped both sides come to this realisation."

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

36 India Modeling DA

War inevitable - Kashmir The Kashmir question makes war inevitable Business Recorder`2k (Business Recorder, London Financial Times, PAKISTAN READY TO TAKE BOLD INITIATIVES ON KASHMIR: SOUTH NEEDS NORTH'S HELP TO GET RID OF DEBT BURDEN: CHIEF EXECUTIVE ADDRESSES UN'S MILLENNIUM SUMMIT, September 7, 2000, Lexis)

KASHMIR: The Chief Executive called for a peaceful settlement of Kashmir dispute and said Pakistan was ready to take bold initiatives to change the status quo through dialogue with India. He said this while addressing the UN Millennium Summit and added that Kashmir was crying for justice even after 52 years. "Pakistan stands for peace and is prepared to take bold initiatives to change the status quo through a dialogue with India at any level, any time and anywhere," General Musharraf told a galaxy of leaders from across the globe. The Chief Executive said, "Kashmir, the root cause of tension, has to be resolved. Ten million people of the state cannot be denied their fundamental right to self-determination." During his speech, he dwelt on the democracy and corruption describing the later "a transnational crime, which required concerted endeavours." "Let me commit at this world forum, that we desire a 'No War Pact'; we are ready for a mutual reduction of forces; and we also seek a South Asia free from all nuclear weapons. Pakistan shall not be drawn into an arms race, nuclear or conventional, irrespective of provocation," he said. The savage brutalities and killing of 70,000 people by 700,000 troops, he said, have only hardened the Kashmiris resolve. said, when one party to a dispute is intransigent in rejecting the use of peaceful means, "the Security Council is empowered to act." "The problem lies not in the Charter, but in lacking of political will. Until we produce that will, all talk of crisis prevention and dispute resolution will ring hollow," he told the Millennium Summit. General Musharraf said people of Jammu and Kashmir seek honouring of the pledge made to them by the United Nations. "If the people of East Timor could be given their freedom, why not the people of Kashmir?" he asked. This august body has resolved many major disputes and conflicts. In recent years, UN intervention arrested massive human tragedies in Bosnia and Kosovo. Wherever there has been a departure from the UN Charter and defiance of UN decisions, dispute has festered, often leading to conflict. Of these, Kashmir and Palestine are the two prime examples, but with a difference. "Whereas the international community and this world body are seriously engaged in finding a solution to the Palestine issue, Kashmir cries for justice even after 52 years," he said. He said South Asian region was embroiled in conflict because the people of Kashmir had been denied justice. This issue had led to the four wars in the region. "While the global trend is for economic progress through regional co-operation, South Asia is embroiled in conflict, " said the Chief Executive. Pakistanis located in the world's most volatile region where one-fifth of humanity lives in a state of economic deprivation, he said. "The region stands heavily militarised, even nuclearised,' which was certainly not of Pakistan's making," he added. "We have been obliged to respond to the compulsions of our security and have merely acted in self-defence," said General Musharraf.