Ml No2_sept3-7-2009

Volume 24, Issue 2

September 3-7, 2009

Everything You’ll Need For Opening Week!

COLLEGE FOOTBALL KICKOFF ISSUE! 93% AWESOME ANGLE INSIDE! • ‘Betcha Didn’t Know’ Handicapping Article • Awesome Angle & Tremendous Trends • Incredible Stat of the Week • Analysis on Every Lined Game • Full Schedule with Opening Lines

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BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW by Marc Lawrence

10 GOLDEN RULES OF A GOOD FOOTBALL HANDICAPPER A Weekly Insight Into The Art Of Sports Handicapping

A

question I’m most commonly asked is, “What does is really take to be a good football handicapper?” Well, for openers, there is no one thing that makes a person a good handicapper. It’s a combination of factors, beginning first with putting as many edges in your favor as possible. That, along with standing by a method of tried and true practices, can put you into a position to win. Allow me to share with you my 10 GOLDEN RULES OF A GOOD FOOTBALL HANDICAPPER. Because they are constants, they remain the same today as yesterday… 1. ALWAYS RESPECT THE ODDSMAKER Never forget – the oddsmaker is the enemy, and must be respected. Don’t get drawn into a battle of testosterone, making believe your line is better than his. He’s paid to put a solid number on games, and does it exceptionally well. Concentrate on handicapping the game with the line he puts out, not with the line you feel it should be. Let your ability, not your ego, be the determining factor in your success. 2. THE NAME OF THE GAME IS VALUE – WITHOUT IT YOU CAN’T WIN Do not settle on a game just because it handicaps. To be a good play it must have line value. This also means not abusing good numbers (primarily 3’s and 7’s). If you have a good underdog that was taking 3 points earlier in the week, do not take less on game day. There will always be another game, with value, down the road. Handicappers who take bad numbers become bad handicappers. 3. WINNING TEAMS FINDS WAYS TO WIN; LOSING TEAMS FIND WAYS TO LOSE By concentrating on winning teams, in the right situations, you increase your chances of winning. That’s because winning teams usually don’t beat themselves (turnovers, penalties, etc.). On the flip side, losing teams are losers because they make more mistakes at crucial times in a game. Look to ‘play on’ winning teams as underdogs, and to ‘play against’ losing teams as favorites.

4. LEARN TO BECOME A CONTRARIAN Understand that bookmakers make nice livings by taking a majority of action from ‘squares,’ or people who bet on popular public teams. By looking to ‘fade’ these teams you not only put yourself in better position to win by getting better odds, you also put yourself in a higher winpercentage bracket. If a game looks too obvious, pass. 5. STATISTCS DON’T LIE Statistics report strengths and weaknesses in teams. Some teams may win games with poor stats but it is only a matter of time before their poor performance on the playing field catches up with their win-loss record. By finding one team’s strength, and identifying another team’s weaknesses, you can get a feel for hidden advantages. 6. LETDOWNS AND LOOKAHEADS Football teams are human and therefore play with emotion. When one team comes off a huge effort, they can easily have a letdown the next game. Conversely, if they have a huge lookahead game up next (a primary rival, revenge from a humiliating loss, etc.) they often times aren’t as focused as they should be. 7. YOU’RE ONLY AS GOOD AS YOUR INFORMATION Because the foundation for handicapping is putting as many edges in your favor as possible, it’s important to seek good, reliable information. In this age of the internet and instant electronic communication, there is a world of winning information out there waiting to be discovered. The more you learn, the better your chances of success. 8. TAKE INJURIES WITH A GRAIN OF SALT The single largest factor in early line moves is injuries. The ‘Wise Guys’ live and die for them, unearthing every nook and cranny, ferreting them out. When they get wind of a twisted knee or a lingering hangnail, they jump on it like a bank robber left alone overnight in a vault. The problem, though, is once you have had a chance

to play an ‘injured game’ the line value is no longer there (see Rule No. 2). Remember this: every team has backup replacements waiting for a chance to enter the starting lineup. This especially holds true when it comes to running backs. As my good friend, the late Richard Klamian contended, it’s only when ‘cluster injuries’ hit that a team has a difficult time carrying out its game plan. When it comes to injuries, it’s caveat emptor – buyer beware. 9. DEVELOP A STYLE AND PERFECT IT There are three primary forms of handicapping that exist today – Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To live by one alone can be dangerous to your wealth. The best handicappers I know incorporate all three of these aspects into their repertoire. I am primarily a ‘technical handicapper.’ It’s the area I attack the hardest, and with them most fervor. Learn to develop a style most comfortable to your approach and perfect it. But be sure to incorporate the other two methods into your ‘style.’ They, too, are edges of information that need to be utilized. 10. BE WILLING TO GO THE EXTRA YARD If you want to succeed you have to be willing to pay a price. It doesn’t matter which profession you’re in or what stage of life you’re in, you must absolutely be willing to outwork your opponent if you wish to continue to succeed. By being willing to burn the midnight oil, staying healthy in body and soul, and remaining steadfast in your beliefs, you will succeed. That’s a guarantee. There you have it, my ideas on what it takes to be a successful handicapper. Oh yeah, perhaps the most important principle of all is to practice the GOLDEN RULE in life – DO UNTO OTHERS AS YOU WOULD HAVE THEM DO UNTO YOU. By doing so you will learn to respect not only the competition, but, more importantly, yourself as well. Good luck this football season.

AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK T TR R II V V II A A

T TE EA AS SE ER R

THIS WEEK'S AMAZING SITUATIONAL PLAY Imagine knowing of a coach that is 18-1 SU in season opening games in his college football head-coaching career, including 16 straight wins in a row. Now imagine that same coach as an UNDERDOG on the opening week college card. Who is this prime-time puppy?

For the Trivia Teaser answer, turn to page 4. Be sure to check out the COACHES LEAGUE for ATS records on every College & NFL coach in 16 key situational roles. Simply log on to www. PLAYBOOK.com and click on the COACHES LEAGUE.

PLAY AGAINST any college conference team in Game One of the season if they are playing with triple revenge exact.

Play Against: RUTGERS

HERE WE GO AGAIN ATS W-L Record Since 1993:

13-1 (93%)

View Marc's Awesome Angle Of The Week at the PLAYBOOK.com website!

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2-MINUTE HANDICAP

FOR A COMPLETE 2-MINUTE HANDICAP OF EVERY GAME ON TODAY'S CARD, VISIT www.PLAYBOOK.com ATS = Against The Spread • A = Away • Con = Conference • D = Dog F = Favorite • H = Home • Rev = Revenge • R = Road • SU = Straight-Up

College Football Games (All results are preseason ATS – Against The Spread – and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of PLAYBOOK™ and the PLAYBOOK™ Database and may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.

TEAMS

KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS

Thursday, September 3

SMART BOX

NEW COLLEGE COACHES New Head Coaches Are Moneyburners

Navy OHIO ST

14-2 dogs 21 > pts… 0-3 L3 vs Big 10… 1-3 A Game One 4-1 in 1st of BB HG’s… 1-4 non con favs 21 > pts

For the most part, new coaches are brought into college football programs that are in need of a transfusion. Much like a body that undergoes alterations during a lifestyle change of diet and exercise, it also takes a while before first year coaches turn a program around. In fact, all teams with 1st year head coaches are 1307-1445-45, or 47.4% ATS, since 1990. The groundwork is laid in the first year, when new coaches install new playbooks and game plans. Consequently, these teams really struggle out of the gate. That’s confirmed by the fact that, since 1990: • 1st Year College Football Head Coaches in Game One are a 42.2% pointspread proposition, going 82-112-6 ATS.

Akron PENN ST

6-1 dogs 24 > pts… 7-3 A vs non con opp… 3-1 Game One 6-1 non con favs 24 > pts… 5-1 DD favs in 1st of BB HG’s

New Head Coaches With Lousy Teams Are Lousy In Season Openers

Nevada NOTRE DAME

0-3 bef week of rest… 2-10 dogs 13 > pts… 1-3 Game One 0-3 H vs WAC opp… 1-5 Game One… 2-9 favs 13 > pts

Georgia OKLA ST

12-1 L13 away vs non con opp… 5-2 RD’s < 7 pts 3-0 bef Houston… 5-1 H vs non con opp… 0-4 favs 7 < pts

Va Tech Alabama

11-3 dogs 7 < pts… 0-2 Game One… 1-3 vs SEC opp 5-1 bef BB HG’s… 4-1 non con favs 10 < pts… 3-6 Game One

Maryland CALIFORNIA

1-5 Game One… 1-4 A bef BB HG’s… 3-7 dogs 20 > pts 3-0 w/ non con rev… 5-1 Game One… 4-1 H vs non con opp

A lousy team is often defined as winning four or fewer games the previous year. We agree with that statement because: • Four win (or less) teams, with a new 1st year head coach, are 34-59-5 ATS in their initial game scheduled. No less than fourteen teams open the season in this role, eleven this week. They include: Army, Eastern Michigan, Miami Ohio, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Purdue, San Diego State, Syracuse, Toledo, Utah State and Washington this week, along with Iowa State, Mississippi State and Wyoming next week.

San Jose St USC

SERIES: 2-0 L2… 7-2 Game One… 2-5 RD’s 24 > pts 8-3 H bef BB RG’s… 0-3 H Game One… 1-4 H vs WAC opp

New Head Coaches With Lousy Teams vs. Good Teams Spell Disaster

S Carolina NC STATE

5-1 in 1st dog role of season… 4-1 weekdays SERIES: 4-1 L4… 0-5 non con favs 5 < pts… 0-3 Game One

Utah St UTAH

4-1 in 1st of BB RG’s… 0-5 weekdays… 1-4-1 dogs 20 > pts SERIES: 5-1-1 L7… 6-2 HF’s 20 > pts… 7-3 weekday HG

Oregon BOISE ST

12-0 L12 as non con dogs… 8-2 away bef BB HG’s 7-1 weekday HG… 7-1 favs 7 < pts… 4-1 in 1st of BB HG’s

Saturday, September 5

Lsu 4-1 non conf RF’s 2 > pts… 6-2 A bef BB HG’s WASHINGTON 1-5 Game One… 1-5 as DD HD’s… 2-6 in 1st of 3+ HG’s La-Monroe TEXAS

4-0 dogs 28 > pts… 1-4 L5 vs Big 12 opp… 1-3 Game One 3-0-1 favs 40 > pts… 5-1 Game One… 9-3 H vs non con opp

Sunday, September 6 Ole Miss MEMPHIS

2-9 RF’s > 8 pts… 1-4 favs Game One… 2-7 A vs non con opp SERIES: Host 6-2… 10-2 HD’s > 7 pts… 2-6 H vs non con opp

Monday, September 7 Cincinnati RUTGERS

SERIES: 5-2 L7 / Dog 6-1… 11-0-1 L12 as dogs 7 < pts 6-2 Game One… 0-9 L9 as favs 7 < pts… 1-4 favs w/ con rev

Miami Fla FLORIDA ST

SERIES: Dog 7-1… 7-1 Game One… 4-1 dogs 6 < pts 0-4 weekdays… 2-7 favs Game One… 2-7 con favs 6 < pts COMING NEXT WEEK

THE WISE GUYS ARE BACK! Now in its 26th year, the WISE GUYS CONTEST is a $10,000 winnerstake-all contest sponsored by JUST BET.com. Top SINGLE PLAY BEST BETS appear every week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter!

Pair a ‘new coach/lousy team’ against a ‘good team’ (one who won six or more games last year) in season openers and you have the makings of a massacre, as these pairings find ‘new coach/lousy team’ combinations at 5-49 SU and 1336-2 ATS. There are six such pairings to open the 2009 season (the ‘new coach/lousy team’ listed first): 9/3 – Utah State vs. Utah. 9/5 – Miami Ohio vs. Kentucky, Syracuse vs. Minnesota and Washington vs. LSU. 9/12 – Iowa State vs. Iowa and Wyoming vs. Texas. Forewarned is forearmed!

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK Georgia is 34-3 SU against non-conference opposition, including 28-1 during the regular season, under head coach Mark Richt. Be sure to read the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK each week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter!

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2009 COLLEGE FOOTBALL - WEEK ONE Remember: You Have A PLAYBOOK BEST BET Whenever Our Predicted Margin Of Victory Is 7 Or More Points In Favor Of Your Line

Bayou Bengals Swamp Hapless Huskies... Bama Blazers Serve Up Scorched Rice Pudding... Thursday, September 3 South Carolina over NC STATE by 1 The 2009 season kicks off in Raleigh where we’ll find out early if the Wolfpack and ACC Freshman of the Year QB Russell Wilson are the real deal. The linesmakers certainly think so as they have installed the hosts as a 4-point choice – the first time State has carried the favorite tag since December of 2007 when they were blown out by Maryland, 37-0. In fact, Tom O’Brien’s crew was the only bowl team that was not favored in any game last season! Their current 0-6 ATS run in their first lined game of the season doesn’t bode well against a Gamecock squad that is 5-1 ATS in their initial underdog role of the season. With the ‘Ol’ Ball Coach’ the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER (see page 2) and the Pack 0-5 ATS as non-conference favorites of 5 or less points, we’ll gladly grab the points in this false favorite special.

UTAH over Utah St by 20 With the SMART BOX and series history clearly pushing us to side with the hosts, you’d think we would have no problem laying the three TD’s in this one-sided intrastate affair. Instead, let’s get you ready for College Gameday – “Not so fast, my friends!” For openers, our M.O. has always been to fade teams coming off unbeaten seasons. And when you throw in the fact that they are facing their former defensive coordinator, you can see our reluctance to jump in with both feet. But we’re not ready to tango just yet with the Aggies and their 1-4-1 ATS mark as dogs of 20 or more points. With the Utes dominating the series to the tune of 7-2-1 ATS, including the last seven by 16 or more points, we’re just going to play Switzerland and stay neutral in this one.

BOISE ST over Oregon by 3 One of four opening week contests that finds a pair of Top 25 squads looking to improve on their pre-season rankings. The Broncos upset the Ducks, 37-32, as 10.5-point dogs last season in Eugene and now play host on the blue rug where they are an ultra-comfortable 58-4 SU. While the sagacious square (SMART BOX) reminds us about the toils of 1st-year head coaches in debut games, former OC Chip Kelly has been groomed for this position and former HC-turned-AD Mike Bellotti has his footprint all over this program. Oregon averaged 30 PPG on the road under Bellotti and that ties in nicely with the Smurfs money-burning 1-10-1 ATS proposition as chalk when they allow 27 or more points. The visitors’ 12-0 ATS mark as regular season nonconference dogs has us all ducky over Thursday night’s primetime ESPN affair. It’s a take, as this one has FG written all over it.

ADDED GAMES

Troy over BOWLING GREEN by 7 This is one of two opening week Sun Belt-MAC tilts and if 2008 was any indication, the southerners should have their way with their Midwest counterparts. The ‘Belters’ not only did it on the scoreboard, winning all three contests SU, but also fattened many a wallet by covering all three as well. The Trojans of Troy have ‘protected’ their backers well in Game One posting a spotless 6-0 mark in their brief ATS history but have come apart at the seams as non-conference favorites with a soft 0-6 record. The Bee Gees have been sweet music as home dogs, posting a brilliant 20-3 ATS mark but – and there’s always a but – it’s another case of a 1st-year head coach taking over after a mediocre season. With the Vegas boys posting a sharp 6.5-point number on this one, we’ll stay on the sidelines with clipboard in hand and just watch and learn.

BALL ST over North Texas by 14 Another thrilling Sun Belt-MAC matchup but this one finds the men from MAC holding the upper hand, at least on the scoreboard. With just three wins over the last two seasons (two of them coming against Western Kentucky), we can’t expect the Lean Green to pull the outright upset – but we can expect them to stay inside the 17-point price tag. 2009 should find the Gonads in a transition period as HC Brady Hoke bailed for the San Diego sun, QB Nate Davis jumped to the NFL and four offensive linemen were lost to graduation. These are not the same Cardinals that won 19 games over the last two seasons and they still may be feeling the effects of the two season-ending losses (the last with new HC Stan Parrish on the sidelines) that saw a terrific season go down in flames. We’ll play ‘Dodge’ ball tonight with the visitors and look for an offense that has posted two straight 4,000-yard seasons to compensate for a defense that has been shredded for more than 5,000 yards over the same span. If you must, let’s break some balls.

Friday, September 4 Tulsa over TULANE by 14 You would think Tulsa’s 4-0 SU and ATS series mark, in which they have outscored the Green Wave, 181-49, would send us straight to the window. Throw in the fact that Tulane is a Phyllis Diller-like 2-32 ATS in their last 34 home games when they allow 35 or more points and you can see why we might not even pass go. But the truth of the matter is there are better games on the board. While there’s no denying the Golden Hurricane can light it up (44 PPG under Todd Graham), they did lose OC Gus Malzahn to Auburn and are breaking in a new QB in Jacon Bower. Yes, the hosts are just 5-13 ATS as doubledigit HD’s, but we’ll counter that with Tulsa’s 3-10-1 ATS log in its first lined game. Like the last pick in gym class, we’ll be riding the bench this afternoon in the Superdome. NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection appears in Bold. Should we pass or not have a strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded. NOTE: Next week’s PLAYBOOK (issue #3) will include a complete slate of NFL writeups and will be available after 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday, 9/8/08.

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Saturday, September 5

3 BEST BET OHIO STATE over Navy by 10 One can’t blame Buckeye backers for circling September 12th on their calendars when the Men from Troy visit the Horseshoe, but they must first take care of business on this opening Saturday in September. Navy certainly doesn’t have Ohio State’s pedigree on the gridiron but they have never been and never will be considered pushovers. For starters, no non-BCS squad has more SU wins (13) against BCS opposition than the Middies since 2003. And they have been money in the bank when taking a big number. They’re a bulletproof 17-3 ATS as road dogs of 20 or more points since 1991 and in the 76 games they have played since the 2003 season, they have been on the short end of a 22 or more point deficit only five times! 2nd-year HC Ken Niumatalolo also arrives with the nation’s most improved scoring defense. As for the Buckeyes, they’ll need this one to get ready for that huge rematch against USC. With just four offensive starters returning, an unsettled offensive line and a pair of 1st-round defensive starters lost to the NFL draft, expect Tressel to work out the kinks of his new pistol-offense and play this one close to his red vest. The Terrelle Pryor show is not quite ready for viewing at a theatre near you – not yet, anyway.

PENN ST over Akron by 24 Like the Energizer Bunny, Joe Paterno just keeps going and going. In 43 seasons as Penn State’s head coach, Joe Pa has won two national championships, 23 bowl games and leads Florida State’s Bobby Bowden in the career-win category by one with a whopping 383 victories. Chances are good that the defending Big 10 champ Nittany Lions will nab no. 384 for Joe today over an Akron squad that collapsed down the stretch last year to finish 5-7. But covering the current line of 24 points may not be all that easy for the 8th-ranked Nits. Many of last year’s key performers are gone, including a trio of offensive linemen, several talented wide receivers and all four starting defensive backs. By contrast, Akron returns 15 starters (nine on offense) featuring QB Chris Jacqueman, his two leading wideouts and four big-eaters on the OL. Embattled head coach J.D. Brookhart (27-33 in five seasons) also hopes to add some zip to his squad with the addition of former Pittsburgh and Stanford coach Walt Harris (assistant HC) and Miami Ohio’s Shane Montgomery (OC). A trip to the archives tells us Akron owns a nifty 7-1 ATS mark lately as dogs of 22 or more points, plus they’ve covered seven of the last ten against non-MAC opponents. Yes, Paterno’s Lions are 40-11 SU the last four seasons but they’re just 26-22-1 ATS. The Zips’ stop unit may have been a disaster last year (finished 90th overall in total defense) but until superstar QB Daryll Clark gets in synch with his new pass receivers and blockers up front, we’re not comfortable laying the big points with PSU. Slight lean to the Tiremakers here.

MICHIGAN over W Michigan by 8 If you thought things were bad for Rich Rodriguez in his first year with the Maize-and-Blue after finishing with an unconceivable 3-9 mark, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Not only has Rodriguez been accused of illegal workout violations by former and current players, but then came the ultimate slap – one of his players left for Ohio State. OUCH! That’s like a Capulet falling for a Montague but we’ll leave that story for another day. Four home games to start the season and 11 offensive returning starters has Richie Rich looking for a quick SU start. But the Wolves have not been exactly Usain Bolt-like out of the ATS starting block, posting a tortoise-like 0-7 ATS log in their first two games of the season over the last four years. They‘ve also dropped the ball against the Mighty MAC, going 0-5 ATS over the last three seasons. With the Broncos 6-0 ATS in the first of back-toback road games and 7-3 ATS when taking more than a TD versus Big 10 opposition, we’ll look for Richie to get the win but not the cover in this Ann Arbor opener. A loss here might have Michigan fans asking, “Oh Lloyd, wherefore art thou?”

Connecticut over Ohio U by 10 We pointed out this fact in the 2009 PLAYBOOK Football Handicapper’s Yearbook but we think it bears repeating: Connecticut is one of only three teams to improve on both sides of the ball yet slip SU and ATS last season. Programs that fit this profile almost always reward their backers the following year so we’ll be looking to ride the Huskies whenever possible this season. Don’t let the loss of QB Tyler Lorenzen and Big East Player of the Year RB Donald Brown scare you off here – UConn head coach Randy Edsall has built this team into a deep, disciplined unit that’s cashed three of its last four tries as road chalk. On the other hand, Ohio coach Frank Solich has seen the win totals drop at Athens over the past two seasons and word is he’ll employ the seldom-successful twoheaded quarterback approach on offense in 2009. Granted, senior QB’s Theo Scott and Boo Jackson are both talented players but we think an offensive unit performs better when familiar with a single field general leading the attack. Ohio’s dreadful 0-7 SU record in season openers combined with a 1-6 SU mark versus Big East opposition only cements our opinion. UConn has rolled to six straight season-opening wins by an average of 34.7 PPG under Edsall’s guidance. The margin won’t be that great today but the Huskies should bring home the cash.

NOTRE DAME over Nevada by 8 After a 7-6 season that was preceded by a 3-9 campaign, Charlie’s Fighting Irish have landed a spot the Top 25. Huh? It appears that NBC (Notre Dame Broadcasting Company) has a say in the polls. They must also have a say in the lines as this one opened at 10 and has since moved to two TD’s. Keep the points coming because what the big wigs DON’T have a say in is the Irish’s 0-3 ATS mark versus WAC opposition or their 1-5 ATS record in season openers. Oh, and let’s not forget about that little 2-9 dandy as favorites of 13 or more points! Starting QB Jimmy Claussen says that Weis won’t lose his job because of his play. But unfortunately for Charlie, Jimmy don’t play no ‘D’ – and Nevada arrives with some heavy offensive artillery, led by explosive QB Colin Kaepernick, defending WAC rushing leader Vai Taua and former WAC rush champion, Luke Lippincott (recently granted a 6th year of eligibility). The ‘Double Deuce’ offense (200 yards rushing and 200 yards passing) accounted for over 500 YPG while averaging 6.1 YPR last season and scored more than 30 points in ten of twelve games. You might want to check out this stat before stewing with the Irish: in their last 50 games, Notre Dame is 8-41-1 ATS as a home favorite in which they allow more than 20 points. Sorry, Charlie, we don’t want any of that – not against a foe that has eclipsed that mark in 42 of its last 48 regular season contests.

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UPSET

GAME OF THE WEEK

UPSET

Georgia over OKLAHOMA ST by 6 A clear-cut case of perception versus reality. Perception: Georgia, last year’s pre-season No. 1 team in the land, badly blew its shot at a BCS championship and will become an SEC also-ran in 2009 after losing QB Matthew Stafford, RB Knowshon Moreno and WR Mohamed Massaquoi to the NFL. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State returns all its firepower from the 2nd-most prolific offense in school history – Senior QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter and WR Dez Bryant (combined for 38 TD’s in 2008). Against a visiting squad hampered by a green QB with just one career start and a poor-tackling defense that was the 4th most-penalized group in the country, the Stillwater Cowboys should ride roughshod over the outclassed Dawgs, right? Reality: Feast your eyes on these numbers from our PLAYBOOK.com database. Georgia has cashed in 12 of its last 13 road games versus non-SEC foes and the Bulldogs are a golden 25-4 SU in season openers since 1980. No such luck with Okie State. The Pokes are 0-4 as chalk of 7 or less points, 1-3 SU and ATS when tackling the SEC and head coach Mike Gundy is a money-burning 11-18-2 ATS as a dog or favorite of 7 or fewer points. Georgia’s Richt thinks 5th-year SR QB Joe Cox will raise some eyebrows. “When it comes to quarterback play, you need an accurate passer, a great decision-maker, and a guy who can lead. Joe really personifies all of those characteristics.” Matched against a Cowboys defense that was stampeded for 406 yards per game last year, look for Georgia to play ball control offense and keep OSU’s gunslingers corralled on the sidelines. Sure, the Pokes figure to be vastly improved in 2009 but laying almost a TD right out of the gate to an opponent of this pedigree seems like too big a leap to us – especially when Georgia is the featured team in this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT. How ‘bout them Dawgs!

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Kentucky over Miami Ohio by 16 (Cincinnati, OH) If the season were a sprint, Rich Brooks’ crew would be holding gold as his Wildcats have raced out to 4-0 and 5-0 starts, respectively, over the last two seasons. Of course the majority of those wins have come against non-conference opposition and this season opener should prove no different as we expect the RedHawks of Miami Ohio to fall prey to the quick-starting ‘Cats. The SEC visitors have had their way against MAC foes, boasting a solid 13-1 SU mark over their last 14 meetings. They’ve also performed admirably as road chalk, posting a nifty 7-3, 70% record. With Miami Ohio a putrid 2-17-1 ATS in their last 20 SU home losses and the SMART BOX saying a resounding ‘no’ to Haywood’s Hawks, we’ll don our derbies and look to go wire-towire with the Wildcats this afternoon in Oxford.

Oklahoma over Byu by 16 (Arlington, TX) This matchup takes place at the new Dallas Cowboys Stadium and Cougar fans are already weighing the tradeoff of a glamour game on the national stage against the very real possibility of opening the season with a lopsided loss. “Is there a risk that we aren’t undefeated, and we aren’t the BCS buster?” asked BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall. “I think that’s a very shortsighted view and my interest is in building the program over the long term.” It’s safe to say he’s accomplished that goal: with three consecutive 10+ win seasons in the bank, Mendenhall has been eclipsed in total victories only by Boise State, Florida, Ohio State and Oklahoma over the same time span. Meanwhile Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops has almost become a victim of his own success. After beating Florida State for the national championship in 2000, he’s lost three BCS national championship games (to LSU, USC and Florida) and two other BCS bowls (to Boise State and West Virginia). With Heisman-winning QB Sam Bradford returning to guide an offense that topped 50 points in nine of 14 contests in ‘08 and nine starters back from a punishing defense, expectations are again ridiculously high for the 3rd-ranked Sooners. The Cougars return some offensive weapons of their own in QB Max Hall, RB Harvey Unga and WR Dennis Pitta – and with all the pressure weighing on Oklahoma here, we’d bite taking three TD’s with the Mormons in Norman, let alone Arlington. The Cougars are 8-1 ATS in lidlifters and will catch Bradford working behind a rebuilt offensive line here. Take it if you play it.

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Illinois over Missouri by 8 (St. Louis, MO) We’d love to snap the rubber band with Illinois in this spot as recent double revenge should have Zook’s crooks clamoring for payback against a green Missouri squad. Only the Illini’s 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS failure in this series tempers our enthusiasm. The Illini do return eight starters on the offensive side of the ball, including QB Juice Williams, and should have their way with a Mizzou group that limps in with four returning defensive starters and just one defensive lineman. Despite a 5-7 season, the boys from Champaign actually produced better stats than their 2007 Rose Bowl season. With Gary Pinkel’s group gutted by graduation losses, including 4-year starting QB Chase Daniel and star WR Jeremy Maclin, we’ll glance past Illinois’ 1-6 ATS mark in opening lined games and look for them to ‘squeeze’ out an ATS cover.

4 BEST BET UAB over Rice by 16 Okay, stop snickering. We know Rice steamed its way to a superb 10-3 SU mark in 2008 punctuated by a 38-14 massacre of Western Michigan in the Texas Bowl – and that the Blazers got ripped for 429 yards per game en route to a dismal 4-8 campaign. But now hear this. The Owls are without eight of eleven starters from their 41-PPG offense, including all-CUSA QB Chase Clement (4119 yards and 44 TD’s in 2008) and skywalking WR Jarrett Dillard. Translation? Rice graduated 97% of its passing and 93% of its total rushing yards! At the opposite end of the spectrum, UAB returns 18 starters – with both the entire offensive and defensive lines back intact. And that Blazer defense we bad-mouthed earlier improved dramatically by season’s end: they gave up 129 points and 1703 yards in their initial three games but slashed those numbers to just 41 points and 848 yard in the closing trio of contests. Those ‘other boys from Bama’ have also compiled a sweet 20-5 ATS record in their last 25 SU lined home wins, vastly superior to Rice’s 2-12-2 ATS mark in its last 16 SU road losses. With the Owls facing back-to-back road games versus Texas Tech and Oklahoma State after this one, it’s hard not to feel a bit sorry for last year’s most-improved FBS team. But we’re in the business of cashing winning tickets, not doling out sympathy. Step up to the green-and-gold window here.

WAKE FOREST over Baylor by 7 Here’s another one of those ‘perception teams’… the Baylor Bears. Despite winning just four games in 2008, the Waco Bruins made huge strides on both sides of the ball and are expected to improve based on last year’s performance. A lot of the expectations are centered on dynamic QB Robert Griffin, the ’08 Big 12 newcomer of the year, who dazzled opponents with 2,091 yards passing and 843 yards rushing. On defense, linebacker Joe Pawelek and safety Jordan Lake are two of the top players in the conference, and the Bears return 20 of 24 starters (counting the specialists), the most the program has brought back since 1969. Even so, the feeling here is the line has been over-adjusted due to Baylor’s perceived improvement. First, we can’t overlook the fact that Art Briles’ team lost by 28 points as 11.5 home dogs to the Deacs in the ’08 season opener. Second, while we’re on the subject of talented quarterbacks, let’s not dismiss Wake’s Riley Skinner. Not only is the senior the most accurate passer in ACC history, he’s compiled a solid 12-3 SU and 9-5 ATS log against non-con opposition (8-1 ATS as a dog or favorite of 4 or less points). And third, the Demon Deacons could easily have reached double-digit wins last year had they not suffered five losses by an average of 5 PPG. With Skinner coming off an 11-for-11 performance in December’s Eaglebank Bowl win over Navy and head coach Jim Grobe declaring, “We’re deeper at receiver than we’ve ever been,” expect Baylor to be on the receiving end of a SU and ATS season-opening beatdown. NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection appears in Bold. Should we pass or not have a strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.

Minnesota over SYRACUSE by 10 Foldin’ Gophers collapsed like a Madoff investment last year, starting 7-1 before finishing 7-6 – despite a defense that improved 138 YPG from 2007 (3rd best in nation). Even with the defensive turnaround, Ted Roof resigned and was replaced by Kevin Cosgrove (Nebraska) and Ronnie Lee as co-defensive coordinators. OC Mike Dunbar was also shown the door in favor of Jedd Fisch, who spent the last eight years in the NFL. Minnesota head coach Tim Brewster and his rebuilt staff welcome back 18 returning starters, including QB Adam Weber (2,761 yards and 15 TD’s) and WR Eric Decker (most catches in the Big 10 last year). The return of RB Duane Bennett should also bolster a woeful rushing attack that finished 104th in the nation. New Syracuse head man Doug ‘Boney’ Marrone inherits the unpleasant task of erasing the stench of the Greg Robinson regime: four consecutive cellar-dwelling seasons and a combined Big East record of 3-25. Marrone is excited over the potential of QB Greg Paulus but must first focus his attention on the offensive line, a group he has described as “awful.” We think a change of leadership will revive the moribund Orange program but not here. The ‘Cuse stands 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in recent season openers and they’ve cashed only twice in their last 10 tries as home dogs. When the SMART BOX speaks, we listen.

E MICHIGAN over Army by 8 Mirror, mirror on the wall, who’s the baddest of them all? With 120 teams participating in the FBS division, these two programs are perpetual bottom-feeders. You’ll probably have a better chance of getting your hands on a Paris Hilton choir video than seeing either of these two programs crack the Top 100 anytime in the near future. And speaking of mirrors, the similarities between these two groups are plenty. Neither has won more than four games in a season this decade, including identical 3-9 marks in 2008, and both are counting on their fourth coach in 10 years to get things turned around. While EMU’s Ron English returns eight starters on both sides of the ball – including an offensive line that has combined to start 94 games – the cupboard is bare for Army’s Rich Ellerson as his Cadets are armed with just ten returnees, including three on offense. Look for the more potent Eagles to avenge last season’s 17-13 setback and hand the Cadets their seventh straight season-opening SU and ATS loss.

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WISCONSIN over No Illinois by 13

Stanford over WASHINGTON ST by 16

It’s been an unseasonably cool summer in the nation’s midsection but the temperature under Wisconsin head coach Bret Bielema has remained in the hot zone. After coasting to a 21-5 SU mark in his first two seasons, Bielema had to watch his Badgers do some very un-Wisconsin-like things in 2008. Wisky lost five of its first six Big 10 contests and ended the season with a humiliating 42-13 blowout by Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl. The explanation was simple: the Badgers just couldn’t finish. “We had some really great players, but we didn’t play hard all the time,” says Wisconsin senior DE O’Brien Schofield. “We didn’t play four quarters. We gave up at times.” Northern Illinois exhibited a similar M.O., dropping three of its last four regular season games before squeaking into a bowl game with a 6-6 record. The real eye-opener in DeKalb was the Huskie defense: rookie head coach Jerry Kill oversaw the 2nd-best overall defensive improvement in the country (138 YPG and 12.8 PPG). The NIU defense lost two-time MAC MVP Larry English to the NFL, but the defensive line and linebacker corps own enough talent to offset the absence of seven starters. Normally, we’d jump all over a Wisconsin team that’s covered eight straight as a non-conference favorite of 24 or fewer points but this team played too many close-call games in ’08 to be laying big points in a season opener (six games last year decided by 3 or less points). The Huskies have barked their way to an 18-8 ATS mark as double-digit dogs and could hang tight with a Wisconsin squad beset with questions at quarterback. The Badgers are also missing stalwart RB P.J. Hill, who left early for the NFL, and six veterans who combined for an amazing 237 career starts. Bielema will be hot under the collar before this one’s over. We’ll hitch a ride with the sled dogs.

Disgraced coach Greg Robinson may have been chased out of Syracuse but his legacy is alive and well in Pullman, Washington. Echoing Robinson’s futility, second-year WSU head coach Paul Wulff’s 2008 debut was an absolute disaster: a 2-11 overall record, a defense that was pounded for over 50 points in six games and eight losses in conference play by an average margin of 47 PPG. Yikes! Little wonder, then, that 5-7 Stanford – who annihilated the Cougars 58-0 last year – is a 16-point road favorite in this season opener. Those are some scary numbers but these stats pertaining to the visitors are equally disturbing. Stanford is a weak 2-10-1 as a road favorite of 9 or more points and the Farmboys have won only 8 of their last 30 Pac 10 road trips… with not a single win coming by more than 17 points. However, we can’t blame Wulff for Washington State’s shameful 1-6 ATS home record in this series. Can you sense our complete lack of interest?

PURDUE over Toledo by 11 If you’ve checked out the SMART BOX on page 3, you know we’re pretty much handcuffed here since both head coaches check into today’s game as first-timers. Frankly, it’ll be somewhat strange to look over at the Purdue sidelines and not see Joe Tiller, a fixture at West Lafayette for the previous twelve seasons. Taking their cue from one of college football’s fastest-growing trends, the Boilermaker brass hired new coach Danny Hope to serve under Tiller for one season before stepping in as his replacement. He’ll show up for work here with only 11 returning starters and missing the services of departed QB Curtis Painter, the Big 10’s passing leader in ’08. Things look more promising for Toledo head coach Tim Beckman: 18 starters are back, including 3-year starting QB Aaron Opelt and the entire offensive line. However, the Rockets have fizzled their way to three consecutive losing seasons and failed miserably as non-conference road dogs, going 3-10 ATS. Purdue owns a gaudy 24-3 SU record versus the MAC, with 20 of those wins coming by double-digit margins. But with today’s pointspread landing in the double-zone, we’re not left with much wiggle room to make a solid call. Since the digitally-remastered Beatles catalog will be available for purchase on September 9th, we’ll heed the advice of the Fab Four and just let it be.

AUBURN over Louisiana Tech by 6 You’ve gotta love working in America. Where else can you win 5 of 24 games and get promoted? That certainly is the case for new Tigers’ head man Gene Chizik as he leaves Ames for SEC country. The defensiveminded Chizik will rely on former Tulsa OC Gus Malzahn to unveil a new spread offense in hopes of bolstering a pathetic Auburn offense which produced only 17 PPG in 2008. The hosts should find it tough in the early going as the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech may actually have a little more bite than bark this season with seven defensive starters returning from a team that ranked in the Top 10 nationally against the run last year. The Techsters’ putrid 3-17 ATS log as non-conference road dogs is a concern but with their entire O-line and D-line intact, we’ll look for them to hand the Cats their seventh loss in their last nine contests as home favorites versus non-conference opponents. And let’s not forget this little ditty uncovered from our PLAYBOOK. com database: double-digit favorites who lost four or more games by 6 or less points the previous year are just 4-8 ATS. Dooley dogs!

TEXAS A&M over New Mexico by 17 The aforementioned Greg Robinson didn’t own the copyright on ‘ugly’ last season. New Texas A&M head coach Mike Sherman kicked off 2008 with an Aggies team that boasted a 14-0 SU and 11-3 ATS record in lined home openers. Sixty minutes later, Sherman’s bunch had laid a mammoth egg, losing 18-14 to lowly Arkansas State as 19-point home chalk. Needless to say, the humbled Aggies will look to make amends here when they entertain New Mexico – minus 11-year coach Rocky Long (now on the staff at San Diego State). That makes new Lobos coach Mike Locksley a SMART BOX fade and a solid performance by the hosts today could provide the fuel for a 4-0 start before Oklahoma State comes calling on October 10th. New Mexico’s pathetic 0-6-1 ATS mark in its first lined game and a 1-3-1 ATS ledger at Big 12 sites sounds a lot like receiving orders to face the firing squad. With 16 starters ready to erase last year’s painful memories, the Aggies should leave some bloodied and beaten Lobos on the battlefield today.

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Alabama over Va Tech by 11 (Atlanta, GA) A showdown between two of the nation’s highest-paid coaches, this could very well be the day’s most intensely-fought, physically punishing game. The 7th-ranked Hokies are a near-unanimous choice to rule over the ACC this year while #5 Alabama is expected to once again challenge mighty Florida for SEC supremacy. Despite the resurgent Tide’s 12-0 regular season in 2008, Bama comes into this matchup riding a bitter 2-game losing streak. But Nick Saban’s troops also fall into one of our favorite opening-game categories, that of ‘red-faced bowlers’, after they laid 9.5 points to Utah in the Sugar Bowl and got dismantled by a 31-17 score. Frank Beamer’s squad closed strong with four straight wins, including a convincing 20-7 decision over Big East champ Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl. But after losing star RB Darren Evans to a season-ending knee injury just weeks ago, Tech will once again have to lean on its rock-ribbed defense to hang with the Tide here (Hokie ‘D’ has allowed an average of just 263 YPG since 2004, tops in the FBS). Should Alabama claim the outright win, VT’s chances for a pointspread cover plummet dramatically: the Techsters are just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 SU losses as an underdog. The ‘neutral’ site location at the Georgia Dome favors the Tide so we’ll look for the ‘Nictator’ to reward Bama backers with their 10th ATS win in 15 tries.

Idaho over NEW MEXICO ST by 1 A rare opening week conference fray finds the Vandals on the WAC highway as they travel to New Mexico State, a squad they have owned in recent years. Can you imagine being knocked around by these sorry Spuds? Idaho owns only nine wins over the past four seasons and three have come at the hands of the equally sorry Aggies. In fact, they’ve covered six of the last seven in this series and three of four on this field. With the hosts a pathetic 6-18 ATS as conference chalk and new HC DeWayne Walker a SMART BOX fade, we’ll back the visitors who are a surprising 3-0 SU and ATS on the road as favorites or dogs of 3 points or less. Look for Robb Akey’s Vandals to steal one as the wrong team is favored tonight in Las Cruces.

UTEP over Buffalo by 10 Here’s a curious line. UTEP, a program in a steady 3-year decline under Mike Price, installed as a TD favorite over a Buffalo squad that’s reached new heights under respected 4th-year head coach Turner Gill. The Bulls enjoyed their first winning season since the Ice Age last year with 8 wins (3 in overtime) and an appearance in the International Bowl. However, in our opinion, such rapid improvement of a perennial doormat makes them primetime ‘play against’ material the following season. Buffalo will sorely miss veteran QB Drew Willy while the Miners welcome back rifle-armed QB QB Tommy Vittatoe, who passed for 6375 yards and 58 TD’s in two seasons. UTEP also returned its two main RB’s among 15 starters and 55 lettermen. Meanwhile, the Bulls suffered a crushing blow when star RB James Starks blew out a knee and will be sidelined for the season. With the Bison dragging behind a horrible 1-11 SU record in road openers, look for the Miners to extract their pound of flesh for last year’s season-opening 42-17 blowout at Buffalo.

CALIFORNIA over Maryland by 24 You can’t blame Terp fans for doing a little California Dreamin’ these days. Not only did the gridiron gang shock the Bears as 14-point home pups last season, Maryland’s hoopsters followed it up in March with a 1st-round win over California in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tourney. We’re big fans of the Mamas and the Papas and our trusty database tells us that maybe all the leaves are brown and the sky is gray for Ralph’s turtles: they carry an 0-7 ATS log in their first lined game and a 1-6 ATS mark away versus an opponent with revenge. Couple that with Cal’s 5-1 record in season openers and their spotless 3-0 penchant for non-conference revenge and you can see why covering this 3-TD spread could be a reality for Jeff Tedford’s 12th-ranked Bears.

NOTE: Next week’s PLAYBOOK (issue #3) will include a complete slate of NFL writeups and will be available after 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday, 9/8/08.

USC over San Jose St by 31 Dick Tomey can’t get no respect. He’s the 7th active winningest head coach in the country and, with 15 starters returning, could have his best team in five years at San Jose. So why did the Spartans schedulemaker decide the Tominator should start the 2009 season against a pair of teams that combined to go 25-1 SU last year? Can’t answer that but we do know this: USC’s Pete Carroll is on the cusp of establishing an honest-to-God DYNASTY in Los Angeles. In nine seasons, Carroll has produced 33 first-team All-Americans, 14 first-round draft picks and three Heisman winners. USC has also finished in the AP Top 4 in seven consecutive seasons, playing in a BCS bowl each time, and are gunning for their eighth straight Pac 10 title. True to form, the 4th-ranked Trojans lost 11 players to this year’s NFL draft, they’ll be starting newcomer Matt Barkley at QB (the first non-redshirt freshman quarterback to start a season opener for USC), and they’re still favored by 35 points over Tomey’s Spartans! And, as you might expect, the homeboys own the majority of ATS edges here. USC has covered five of the last six as non-conference chalk of 24 or more points and cashed eight of eleven at the Coliseum before heading out on back-to-back road trips. Still, we just can’t get worked up about laying a ton of points with USC when they’ve got one of their biggest games of the season looming on next week’s horizon, a showdown with #6 Ohio State in Columbus. However, that is by no means a recommendation to buck the Trojans here. Last year they returned only 11 starters, suited up a new QB, embarked on a coast-to-coast trip and still blistered Virginia, 52-7. We suggest you look elsewhere today.

ARIZONA over C Michigan by 3 Arizona’s Mike Stoops looks to build on the first winning season in his 5-year reign but he’ll have to do it without his wife (going through a divorce) and his all-everything QB Willie Tuitama. The MVP of the 2008 Las Vegas Bowl hit the graduation trail handing over the reins to a new two-headed QB tandem in SO Matt Scott and Michigan State transfer Nick Foles. With RB Nic Grigsby, All-American TE Ron Gronkowski and all three WR’s returning, Stoops should have plenty of weapons at his disposal. However, like having two wives, two-headed quarterback situations rarely work. Besides, it’s not the offense but the defense that will be tested in the 2009 opener as QB Dan LeFevour and his red-faced Chippewas invade Tucson. The Chips ended a promising 2008 campaign with three straight losses, including a 24-21 bowl loss to FAU as 7-point favorites, placing them squarely in the ‘red-faced bowler’ category. LeFevour, who has accounted for almost 12,000 yards of total offense in his stellar career, has been a handicapper’s delight. He’s rewarded his backers with a 25-12-2 ATS mark and we’ll look for more of the same tonight in this double-digit dog role. And speaking of big numbers, some teams just aren’t meant to play the role of double-digit chalk. The Wildcats are one of them as they carry a Rosie O’Donnell-like 14-41 ATS weight in this situation. Grab MAC ‘Fevour’ and chip away tonight with the visitors.

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UCLA over San Diego St by 27 Former UCLA golden boy Rick Neuheisel’s return to his alma mater last season did not go exactly as planned. The one-time Bruins QB and MVP of the 1983 Rose Bowl win over heavily-favored Illinois, Neuheisel saw his team stumble to a 4-8 finish, its lowest win total since 1999. Don’t look for a repeat performance in 2009; UCLA is loaded on offense with nine returning starters including elusive RB Khalil Bell. And Neuheisel, who was critical of the Bruins’ quarterback play last year, replaced starter Kevin Craft with freshman phenom Kevin Prince. New San Diego State head coach Brady Hoke traded the frozen tundra of Muncie, Indiana for the sun and surf scene to try his hand at rebuilding a pitiful Aztec program. Our friendly SMART BOX says to avoid Brady’s boys here and our database concurs: SDSU is just 1-7 ATS in the last eight series meetings (1-6 at home) and 2-8 ATS overall versus the PAC 10. UCLA weighs in with a hefty 13-2 ATS mark in Game One, including a 12-1 record against non-conference foes. Can you spell B-L-O-W-O-U-T?

5 BEST BET Lsu over WASHINGTON by 28 It’s back to business in the Bayou. After three straight 11-plus win seasons including a 2007 National Championship, Les and his ‘fat cats’ were hit with a dose of reality. The Bengals’ five losses last year were the most suffered by a defending champion since 1943 and Miles will be looking to trade in his ESPN commercial appearances for some primetime exposure. He gets it started this Saturday (10:30 ESPN) and he couldn’t have hand-picked an easier opponent. The Huskies do return 18 starters from last season but that group was a sledless 0-12 and now turns to former USC OC Steve Sarkisian for help. Besides taking on a group of Cats that are a prowling 36-9-4 ATS when they win SU as road favorites, Sarkisian must also tackle our SMART BOX and its 0-8 ATS manifest as home dogs of 15 or more points in coaching debuts. With the hosts just 4-16 ATS in their last 20 SU losses as a home dog and 1-5 as DD HD’s, we’ll look for Miles to improve on his stellar 16-6-1 mark as a non-conference favorite. With Florida and Alabama grabbing most of the SEC spotlight, expect Les and company to stay under the radar and quietly make amends for last season – as least until that October 10th showdown with the Gators. Hey Les, “Can you picture yourself back in the National Spotlight?” We can.

ADDED GAMES NEBRASKA over Fla Atlantic by 24 While there’s probably a better chance of spotting a vestal virgin at a Marilyn Manson concert than seeing FAU pull off the outright upset (0-6 SU against this conference), the 20-point price tag doesn’t look all that enticing after checking out a few gems from our PLAYBOOK.com database. For starters, the visitors have been outscored 240-46 in their six jousts with the Big 12. Even worse, HC Howie Longname has had little-to-no bite as a dog of more than 17 points in his career, cashing only 6 of 22 in this role, including 0-9 his last 9. While we do believe SR QB Rusty Smith is healthy and primed for a big season, his personal 1-8-1 SU and ATS record as a non-conference double-digit dog tells us to check back during Sun Belt play. Huskers’ 6-1 ATS log in their first lined game clinches it. Big Red brings home the Big Green.

CLEMSON over Middle Tenn St by 11 With the Tigers eyeing a revenger against Georgia Tech next Thursday, this looks like a good spot for Middle Tennessee’s Rick Stockstill to improve on his 3-0 ATS mark against ACC foes. The 4th-year HC has certainly held his own against this conference, winning one of the three games SU and losing another by just 2 points. With 17 returning starters, including 10 on offense, don’t expect the Blue Raiders to be early-season pushovers. Clemson’s Dabo Swinney did a solid job (4-3) after taking over for Tommy Bowden in mid-season but his debut left a bad taste in the mouths of Tiger fans when Clemmie was handed a 21-17 home loss by Georgia Tech. With Tech on deck, don’t look for too many wrinkles from the Clemson offense. They say “a little dab’ll do ya” but this Dabo’s more interested in next week’s trip to Atlanta than covering today’s number. With nine former Clemson staff members currently residing on the MTSU sideline, look for the Tigers get the ‘W’ while the Raiders improve to 7-1 ATS as Game One dogs.

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TEXAS over UL-Monroe by 44 “Oh, the shark has such pretty teeth dear and he shows ‘em, pearly white. Just a jack knife has macheath dear, and he keeps it way out of sight.” You can be sure ol’ Mackey Brown is going to keep plenty out of sight tonight in Austin with Texas Tech just around the corner and the Red River Rivalry an arm’s distance away. Texas has really shown their teeth as favorites of 40 or more points, posting a spotless 3-0 ATS mark but the Warhawks have landed the money four out of four times as dogs of 28 or more points. The visitors’ 1-4 ATS record versus Big 12 opposition and the Longhorns’ 5-1 ATS mark in season openers has us thinking ‘hook ‘em.’ But whatever Mackey wants…”Do you suppose our boy will do something rash?”

TENNESSEE over W Kentucky by 35 No one has ever accused new Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin of being subtle. Not long after the 34-year old Oakland Raiders exile was tapped to replace ousted Volunteer icon Phil Fulmer, Kiffin branded Gators coach Urban Meyer a ‘cheater’ during a banquet at the Knoxville Convention Center. “I’m gonna turn Florida in right here in front of you,” Kiffin told about 1,000 Volunteer fans when he accused Meyer of a recruiting violation by attempting to contact a player who was on an official visit to the UT campus. Guess what? Not only was Kiffin wrong about Meyer committing the violation, he also broke SEC rules by publicly criticizing another coach and institution. But Kiffin rebounded recently to steer heavily recruited freshman RB Bryce Brown clear of possible NCAA sanctions for taking funded trips to college campuses while still in high school. Brown’s arrival should meld nicely with seven returning offensive starters while Kiffin also managed to lure his father, Monte, the veteran DC with Tampa Bay to oversee the defense in Knoxville. Western Kentucky looks severely overmatched in this lidlifter: the Hilltoppers finished 2-10 last year while going 0-2 SU and ATS versus the SEC (outscored 82-10). Yes, the Vols are a less-than-encouraging 6-13 ATS lately when laying doubles and they’ll be starting FIVE freshmen Saturday but Kiffin will likely want to run it up big in his debut to impress the locals. Massacre in Rocky Top.

Sunday, September 6

Ole Miss over MEMPHIS by 10 No doubt about it… the Ole Miss Rebels are the media darlings of the 2009 college football season. Mississippi was the only team to beat BCS Champ Florida last year (in The Swamp, no less!) and closed out the season with a 6-game win streak that included a sound beating of Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. Even so, Houston Nutt and company managed to raise the ire of the SEC after Ole Miss signed 37 players in February, forcing conference leaders to pass a rule limiting football teams to signing 28 players annually. “The Ole Miss situation was embarrassing for a lot of our coaches,” commissioner Mike Slive said. “I know Ole Miss’ plan was to steer those non-qualifiers to the local JUCOs in Mississippi. But it left a sour taste in a lot of coaches’ mouths who stress that recruits are students first and athletes second.” Ranked #10 in the initial USA Today coaches’ preseason poll, we think the Rebels will leave an equally sour taste among sports bettors who have fallen prey to all the hype surrounding this year’s edition. True, 14 starters, including QB Jevan Snead, are back but Ole Miss will no longer be in a position to ambush unsuspecting foes. The Rebs are also running headlong into a wall of bad numbers in this season opener. They’re a sorry 2-9 ATS as road chalk of more than 8 points, 2-8 ATS as double-digit favorites away from Oxford, 1-4 ATS as Game One favs and 2-7 ATS versus non-conference foes in enemy territory. Tommy West’s home dog Tigers own much better pointspread stats for this matchup. Memphis is 12-4 ATS as double-digit non-con HD’s and the series host has covered six of the last eight meetings. The Tigers also benefit from the NCAA’s decision to grant a 6th year of eligibility to QB Tommy Hudgens. With coach West checking in at 8-2 ATS when taking 7 or more points at the Liberty Bowl, we’ll count on the striped cats to take this one down to the wire.

COLORADO over Colorado St by 7 The Buffs have owned the neighborhood since this rivalry began in 1983 with a 16-5 SU mark but it’s been the Rams who have collected the rent with a 12-8-1 ATS log. And if 2nd-year coach Steve Fairchild continues to put his stamp on this Colorado State program, it appears the boys from Ft. Collins may be moving on up. Things are already looking better for Fairchild and company as his Rams won as many games in 2008 as they did in the previous two seasons (7) capped by a bowl win. He also has the luxury of an offensive line that has combined to start 118 games – the most in the FBS this season. Colorado, on the other hand, has taken a step back since the arrival of Dan Hawkins. Hawkins, who went 53-11 in his five years at Boise State, has only been able to muster 13 wins in 37 tries at Boulder. With the visitors on a current 6-2 ATS run in their first road game of the season (including 2-0 on this field) and the hosts 2-10 ATS as non-conference home chalk of less than 20 points, we’ll grab the elevator ‘going up’ with Fairchild and the improving Rams.

Monday, September 7

RUTGERS over Cincinnati by 1 Despite an 11-3 season, Brian Kelly’s Bearcats are one of a handful of Big East squads on the outside (of the Top 25) looking in. Greg Schiano’s Scarlet Knights are another one of those Big East outsiders, which makes this a crucial early season battle for national notoriety as well as conference supremacy. Schiano will have to get it done for the first time since 2004 without 4-year starting QB Mike Teel and, besides the AWESOME ANGLE demanding a ‘play against’ Rutgers, our own powerful database points us in the visitors’ direction. The dog is a solid 6-1 ATS in this series and Kelly has been golden in this opening week role as he’s a money-making 12-2-2 ATS when taking 12 or less points. Couple that with the Knights’ 0-9 ATS log their last 9 as favorites of less than 7 points and their 1-4 ATS mark as favorites with conference revenge and, suddenly, our ‘Angle’ becomes even more awesome. Cincy’s 4-0 ATS weekday mark has the hosts ‘laboring’ all night. Grab the points.

Miami Fla over FLORIDA ST by 1 The Canes’ brutal opening 4-game schedule finds them in the cozy confines of Doak Campbell Stadium on Labor Day. Yes, we did say cozy confines! After all, they’ve won three of the last four SU and four of the last five ATS in Bobby’s backyard. In fact, this has turned into a dog series of late with the puppy fetching the bone in seven of the last eight contests. With QB’s leaving South Florida faster than dogs leaving Philly, the onus squarely falls on the shoulders of Jacory Harris. Harris has promised Miami fans a national championship as well as a Heisman Trophy and if his 30-0 high school record is any indication of his ability, Randy Shannon’s program might very well be in good hands. Recent infractions have ol’ Bobby’s wins dropping quicker than a Heidi Fleiss call girl and his 2-7 ATS mark as conference favorites of 6 or less points doesn’t give us any confidence he will add to the win total this week. Nor does his 2-7 ATS log versus a conference opponent with revenge. ‘U’ know what to do.

NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection appears in Bold. Should we pass or not have a strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.

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THIS WEEK'S BEST BETS

A REVIEW OF THE CURRENT STAR-RATED BEST BET SELECTIONS

FOR WEEK ENDING MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2009

3 BEST BET

4 BEST BET

5 BEST BET

2009 COLLEGE FOOTBALL

NAVY

UAB

LSU

SUBSCRIBERS: Call the PLAYBOOK WEEKEND UPDATE PHONE every Thursday after 1:00 pm ET for late-breaking Best Bet information!

2009 COLLEGE FOOTBALL - WEEK ONE Listed next to the games below are two entries: OL is the opening line on the contest and PB is the PLAYBOOK margin on the game. You have a PLAYBOOK BEST BET whenever our predicted margin of victory is 7 or more points in favor of your line. Remember, opening lines are subject to change during the week so always check YOUR CURRENT LINE against the PLAYBOOK line to determine a play. All times listed are Eastern Standard Time • Games in Official International Rotation sequence • Dates & times subject to change

OL PB

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3 127 S CAROLINA

1

7:00 PM

128 NC STATE

ESPN

3’

129 UTAH ST 9:00 PM

130 UTAH

MTN

21

20

10:15 PM

132 BOISE ST

ESPN

3

5’

ADDED GAMES 133 TROY

6’

7:00 PM

7

ESPNU

17

14

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4 143 TULSA

14

8:00 PM

14

ESPN

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5 145 NAVY  ESPN

22

10

27’

24

147 AKRON 12:00 PM

7:00 PM TIME CHANGE

8

174 PURDUE

12’

11

4

10

175 STANFORD

16’

16

6:00 PM TIME CHANGE

OL PB

ADDED GAMES 197 FLA ATLANTIC 7:00 PM TIME CHANGE

152 OHIO U

176 WASHINGTON ST

198 NEBRASKA

153 NEVADA

177 LOUISIANA TECH

199 MID TENN ST

3:30 PM

154 NOTRE DAME NBC

14

3:30 PM

156 OKLAHOMA ST ABC

6

157 KENTUCKY @Cincinnati

14’

7:00 PM TIME CHANGE

8

178 AUBURN

6

179 NEW MEXICO

16

183 IDAHO 16

7

8

4’

16

ESPN

163 RICE

17

ABC

6’

11 1

8:00 PM

184 NEW MEXICO ST

3’

165 BAYLOR

CBSC

6’

10

188 CALIFORNIA ESPN2

21

24

34’

31

12’

3

10:00 PM

3:30 PM TIME CHANGE

3:30 PM TIME CHANGE

1

7

190 USC

167 MINNESOTA

7

10

191 C MICHIGAN

12:00 PM TIME CHANGE

7:00 PM

170 E MICHIGAN

5’

8

7:00 PM

16’

13

11

40

44

12:30 PM TIME CHANGE

204 TENNESSEE

30

35

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 6

7:30 PM TIME CHANGE

3:30 PM

206 MEMPHIS

17

10

11’

7

ESPN

7:00 PM

208 COLORADO

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 7 209 CINCINATI

193 SAN DIEGO ST

171 NO ILLINOIS 172 WISCONSIN BIG 10

10:00 PM

192 ARIZONA

ESPN2

19’

207 COLORADO ST

189 SAN JOSE ST

166 WAKE FOREST

7:00 PM

202 TEXAS

205 OLE MISS

9:00 PM

186 UTEP 187 MARYLAND

4:00 PM

164 UAB 

168 SYRACUSE

13’

185 BUFFALO

3:30 PM (St. Louis, MO)

162 ILLINOIS

6:00 PM TIME CHANGE

200 CLEMSON

24

203 W KENTUCKY

8:00 PM (Georgia Dome)

159 BYU @Arlington, TX 21

6

181 VA TECH 182 ALABAMA

ESPN

13’

20’

201 UL-MONROE

7:00 PM TIME CHANGE

158 MIAMI OHIO ESPNU 7:00 PM TIME CHANGE

ESPNU

180 TEXAS A&M

169 ARMY

12:00 PM

148 PENN ST

151 CONNECTICUT

12:00 PM TIME CHANGE

12

161 MISSOURI

7:30 PM TIME CHANGE

146 OHIO ST

ABC

160 OKLAHOMA

135 NORTH TEXAS

144 TULANE

3:30 PM TIME CHANGE

150 MICHIGAN

12:00 PM TIME CHANGE

134 BOWLING GREEN

136 BALL ST

173 TOLEDO

155 GEORGIA

131 OREGON

OL PB

OL PB 149 W MICHIGAN

4:00 PM

210 RUTGERS

ESPN

6

ESPN

5

211 MIAMI FLA

1 1

8:00 PM

194 UCLA

17’

27

212 FLORIDA ST

195 LSU 

16’

28

FREE PICKS: 1.714.228.6272

10:30 PM

196 WASHINGTON ESPN

Marc Lawrence’s

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