Mind The Gap

A Project of the Space Frontier Foundation

Why the White House Review of NASA’s Human Spaceflight Program is Good for NASA & America

Today’s FY2010 NASA Budget Announcement includes a new independent White House-initiated review of all NASA human spaceflight activities post-Shuttle retirement, including questions regarding ISS lifetime, Constellation, and the role of commercial participation in both ISS operations and future exploration missions. Former Administrator Michael Griffin has reflexively defended his chosen architecture as the best approach, one which he claims has made four years of “progress”. But the fact is that in 2005 Dr. Griffin declared that that the initial operational flights of Orion and Ares 1 would take place in 2012, and today both published media reports of internal NASA estimates and assessments by Congressional oversight agencies indicate that 2017 is much more likely, assuming no further major technical or financial problems arise. In other words, in four years the Gap in U.S. Human Spaceflight has grown by five years. While the real test of any U.S. human spaceflight strategy must be an honest assessment of the likely economic, scientific, competitive, and national security benefits it will produce, an equal consideration from existing U.S. Space Exploration Policy is that it must be affordable, sustainable, and practical. Specific technical issues notwithstanding, the current approach to launching Orion has clearly failed that test. Ares 1’s failure has not only grown the “Spaceflight Gap”: • Its development cost growth has worsened the Affordability Gap • Its schedule slips and projected operating costs has created an “ISS Research Gap” • Its significantly longer development timeframe delays the development of vital Constellation elements such as Ares 5 (or any heavy-lift system) and Altair, creating an “Exploration Gap” • All of which combine to create an “Inspiration Gap” in young people across America. Several credible U.S. companies, including Boeing, SpaceDev (now part of Sierra Nevada Corp.), SpaceX and others have proposed commercial partnerships to develop simple crew-capable spacecraft and use either existing proven rockets (or in SpaceX’s case, the hardware-in-testing Falcon 9) to affordably transport crew and commercial spaceflight participants to and from ISS. Both the United Launch Alliance and independent reviews have shown that existing EELVs can also launch Orion to ISS. By working with America’s commercial industry, NASA can start launching human beings to orbit as early as 2011 or 2012 from Cape Canaveral, Florida. And by avoiding developing and perfecting a new, single-purpose rocket to launch Orion, NASA can accelerate other elements of Constellation and send humans beyond Low Earth Orbit that much sooner. This will create more space jobs across America, more overall economic growth, and stronger nationwide public support for America’s human spaceflight efforts. This is real progress.

For additional information or perspective, please call Project Manager James Muncy at 703-370-4539.