Mind The Space Gap - Space Access Presentation

Another troublemaking project of the Space Frontier Foundation

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Way back in early 2005… • CEV (“Orion”) was not aimed at ISS • Innovative architectures considered • Admiral Steidle proposed a “nontraditional crew” development effort to address humans to LEO/ISS/CEV – In part to avoid human rating CEV launcher

• NASA forecast a “gap” of perhaps 4 years between Shuttle retirement and CEV 2

Then came Mike • We must get rid of the Gap! • “It is unseemly in the extreme” for the U.S. [read: NASA] to not have a human launch capability [read: government-owned & contractor operated system] – Dr. Griffin • Suddenly the Goal wasn’t returning NASA to exploring beyond Earth orbit… • …but recreating Gemini on Steroids 3

Some doubted hysteria • Is it really a national security threat to not launch astronauts for 3-4 years? – So… Iraq became a quagmire because the Shuttle was grounded?

• Doesn’t there need to be a gap so best people can complete Shuttle flyout and then go to work on new system? • Isn’t the goal affordable/sustainable exploration/development/settlement? 4

Smartest guys in the room • They decided that only pressure to launch astronauts to ISS… • …whose remaining research they killed… • would provide political support to fund… • …the only launch system development we would need until we got bored with Mars • Shuttle-derived approach would close the Gap to just 2012… Safe, Simple, Soon 5

So how has that worked out? • NASA’s current internal forecast of Orion and Ares I’s first human launch is 2017 • At a cost to IOC of $44B (up from $27B) • So Gap has grown by 3 years from VSE • But 5 years since ESAS 3.5 years ago • Or approximately 1.3 years per year – A new NASA metric: YPYS 6

So much for new exploration • • • • • •

No way NASA gets to Moon by 2019 If it only launches Ares 1 in 2017 May not get there by 2029 If ever And it won’t be “affordable or sustainable” So NASA will have betrayed a third presidential goal for human space flight 7

NASA failed by its own standard • You don’t have to argue that Ares 1 will never work • Or will be too expensive to operate • You simply have to point out that the GAP has increased from 2 to 6-7 years • ESAS & Ares 1 are…

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The Opportunity for Change • With a new Administration and a new Congress we can fix mistakes • The fastest/surest/safest/cheapest approach is to use existing/developing comm’l ELVs • To launch simple human-carrying spacecraft • i.e. COTS-D, or “Nontraditional Crew” 9

The Campaign • Space Frontier Foundation believes it is time to declare Ares 1 and ESAS a failure. • NASA should use stimulus funds to stimulate a new human ETO industry by funding multiple COTS D concepts • Launch Orion on EELV • Pursue *cheapest* medium-heavy option for exploration missions & intermodal demos 10

It’s easy to pick the right path • As long as you…

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