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MISH' S Global Economic
Trend Analysis
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Thursday, November 27, 2008
About Mike Shed
Mike Shedlo Chesapeake a registered i Energy, Largest advisor repre Chesapeake Energy, Largest US Natural US Natural Gas for SitkaPaci Producer, Runs Gas Producer, Runs Out Of Cash Management Out Of Cash reading... LBO Boom Over - Ontario Teacher's Pension YahooFinance is reporting Chesapeake Energy may Plan Off The sell $1.8B stock to get cash. Hook Case Shiller and Chesapeake Energy Corp., the nation's largest . producer of natural gas, seeks to raise up to $1.8 . Mish Audio CAR Analysis November 2008 billion through common stock sales in an effort to Release fund its drilling and exploration activities and October 23, 2008 Durable Goods mitigate the impact of lower natural gas prices on TDI Episode 80: Predicting Orders And cash flow. DOWN Consumer Spending Plunge In two filings with the Securities and Exchange October 17, 2008 Grim FDIC Commission late Wednesday, the company said it Commodity Watch Radio Quarterly will issue shares worth as much as $1 billion before markets Michael Hampton, Banking Profile fees and also registered 50 million shares worth at State of New most $791 million for potential sale. August 24,2008 Jersey Is Insolvent Commodity Watch Radio Government To Oklahoma City, Okla.-based Chesapeake said it Deflation? Part 1 James Tur Commit Another will use proceeds from the $1 billion offering for Hampton, Mish
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$600 Billion On Mortgages, Another $200 Billion on TALF Bailout Pledges Hit $7.7 Trillion Citigroup Bailout Raises Viability Questions For Entire Banking System New York May Lose 225,000 Financial Jobs Citigroup Bailout Terms of Agreement Citigroup Bailout Agreement Reached
general corporate purposes, including fund exploration, development and other capital expenditures.
Boomp3.com
The move would dilute holdings of shareholders, who already suffered through a substantial decline in Chesapeake's stock price this year. Shares closed at $20.24 on Wednesday, off 73 percent from the stock's $74 52-week high set this summer.
Top Ten Posts Top Hot • April Jobs - Another Report World 4.97 (82 Chesapeake has used up the remaining financing • votes) available under its $3.5 billion bank credit facility Fed Uncertainty Principle and only $251 million is left of another $460 4.90 (181 million credit line. Credit markets remain tight with • votes) financial institutions under duress. Dear Citigroup Customer ... CHK Daily Chart 4.89 (174 votes) Citigroup VIEs Raise Quest 4.92 (98 votes) Featured Links click on chart for sharper image Mish's Global Economic Tr 4.88 (162 • GoldMoney: The This is the same silliness we saw with banks and votes) Best Way to Buy financials. The companies kept paying MBIA Maintains Highest R Gold & Silver unsustainable dividends and buying back shares at 4.87 (165 • Dollar Collapse ridiculous prices. They did not raise money when votes) News on the they could but rather when they were forced to. GM's Last Fatal Mistake Dollar's Death 4.93 (71 Spiral Can anyone ever get this right? votes) • Get Involved The Credit Default Swap Tsunam State of the Petrobras Cash Shortage 4.89 (99 Union's Finances: votes) A Citizen's Guide In Brazil, Petrobras Cash Shortage Led to Tax Repackaged Mortgage Garb • Abolish The Fed Loan. 4.92 (71 Sign the Petition Petroleo Brasileiro SA was forced to borrow 2 votes) • Jekyll Island billion reais ($881 million) from Brazilian stateEdward Griffin - owned discount bank Caixa Economica Federal as Deflation In A Fiat Regime? 4.85 (147 Creature From it faced “momentary difficulty” paying taxes, votes) Jekyll Island Energy Minister Edison Lobao said. Fed Defends The Indefensib • 3 "Implode-O4.89 (82 Meters" Mortgage Petrobras, as the state-controlled oil company is votes) Lenders known, said record profit in the third quarter Eight States In Deep Fiscal Banks resulted in a 11.4 billion-real tax bill in October, But the company said cash flow, borrowings and cash on hand have not been enough to pay for capital expenditures.
Home Builders
Recommended Books • • •
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Tomorrow's Gold The Dollar Crisis What Has Government Done to Our Money? Economics In One Lesson Economics For Real People Master Traders The Disciplined Investor Psychology of Trading Empire of Debt Just What I Said The Coming Collapse of the Dollar Trading in the Zone Confessions of a Subprime Lender The Monetary Elite vs. Gold's Honest Discipline
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DollarCollapse NowAndFutures 321Gold Sharelynx Gold
about 5 percent more than the 10.8 billion reais of cash it had on hand at the end of September, the Rio de Janeiro-based company said in a note on the Brazilian security regulator’s Web site. “There were taxes that Petrobras had to pay that they really shouldn’t have had to pay because they weren’t generated by operating profit but by the strengthening of the dollar,” Lobao told reporters in Brasilia. “The company had to take money out of its cash holding to pay the taxes.” Petrobras, which has spent more than 20 billion reais on investment so far this year and paid $6.2 billion in dividends, may also have had to borrow money from state-controlled Banco do Brasil SA to meet its obligations, Senator Tasso Jereissati said in a telephone interview. The cash-flow problems may also have forced Petrobras to delay payments to suppliers over the last 30 days, Jereissati said. Petrobras officials weren’t immediately available to respond to Jereissati’s comments. Petrobras said about a third, or 3.5 billion reais, of its record 10.9 billion-real third-quarter profit was the result of a 19 percent increase in the value of the dollar against the real in the quarter. Petrobras’s ability to generate cash and borrow may be further hurt by a 60 percent decline in the price of oil since reaching a high in July and the world credit crunch sparked by recent U.S. bank failures, Lucas Brendler, an energy analyst at Banco Geracao Futuro in Porto Alegre, Brazil, said yesterday.
4.89 (77 votes) Bernanke Asks Taxpayers T 4.86 (118 votes) What Exactly Is The G7 pla 4.89 (76 votes) Congressional Insanity: Sue Prices 4.84 (136 votes) Canada's Housing Boom Is 4.89 (78 votes) May Jobs: Unemployment S 4.89 (77 votes) Evidence of "Walking Away Mortgage Pool 4.84 (138 votes) The $1.1 Trillion HELOC P 4.87 (86 votes) Bankruptcies: The No. 1 Gr 4.88 (81 votes) Mish's Global Economic Tr Crime In Buying AIG Time 4.85 (106 votes) Mish's Global Economic Tr 4.82 (161 votes) WaMu's Suspect Mortgage 4.89 (69 votes) Mish's Global Economic Tr 4.84 (107 votes) Nature of the Fannie Mae B 4.84 (108 votes) Mish's Global Economic Tr Paulson Rolls The Dice At T
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OPEC Has All Options Open In other energy news, OPEC Has All Options Open, Including Cut. OPEC has all options open, including a cut in production, when it meets this weekend in Cairo, said Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corp. “We have to look for the possibility of stabilizing the market,” Ghanem told reporters when he arrived at his hotel. “The whole financial market is in a shambles so prices may still go down more, but we are sure it’s going to rebound.” The 13 members of OPEC, which supply more than 40 percent of the world’s oil, are meeting for the third time in as many months to discuss a further cut in production after crude prices plunged more than 60 percent from July’s all-time high of $147.27 a barrel. The crude oil market is over-supplied, OPEC Secretary- General Abdalla el-Badri said today in an interview in Cairo. He declined to recommend a course of action, saying any decision concerning production quotas was up to ministers to take. Oil demand is falling faster than expected, Hasan Qabazard, head of research at the group’s secrectariat, said in an interview in Cairo today. Peak Oil vs. Falling Demand In the battle between Peak Oil vs. Falling Demand, falling demand is clearly winning even though OPEC member Libya suggests "We are sure oil prices are going to rebound.” If OPEC is so sure prices will rebound, exactly why is a production cut necessary and why are inventories at 5 year highs? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Chesapeake Energy, Largest US Natural Gas
4.80 (190 votes) Mish's Global Economic Tr 4.83 (106 votes) Mish's Global Economic Tr Response To Bush Speech: 4.87 (70 votes) Mish's Global Economic Tr 4.86 (72 votes) Bernanke's, Paulson's, Bair's Step 4.84 (90 votes) Mish's Global Economic Tr 4.83 (90 votes) Congress Threatens Oil Pro 4.83 (87 votes) Mish's Global Economic Tr Dumbest Merger Proposal I Wachovia + Morgan Stanley 4.92 (46 votes) Death Spiral Financing at W Lynch, Citigroup 4.80 (135 votes) Does The Shopping Center Work? 4.82 (95 votes) Mish's Global Economic Tr Letter To Congress On The Paulson Bailout Plan 4.78 (191 votes) Things That "Can't" Happen 4.79 (152 votes) Mish's Global Economic Tr 4.80 (119 votes)
Faster Way To Track Headline News
Nothing Left To Lose At Am Producer, Runs Out Of Cash Posted by Michael Shedlock at 4:14 PM .... Print .... 4.83 (83 votes) Email Mish's Global Economic Tr To receive a free copy of our monthly letter 4.80 (116 to clients in your inbox every month, register your votes) Bernanke Urges Action to S email address at the bottom of the Sitka Pacific 4.84 (78 Commentary Page. votes) Mish's Global Economic Tr Buy Gold and Silver Online at GoldMoney 4.83 (86 The Best Way to Buy Gold and Silver votes) WaMu Pool WMALT 2007 Disclaimer:The content on this site is provided as Update general information only and should not be taken 4.83 (85 as investment advice. All site content, including votes) advertisements, shall not be construed as a Wild Ride In Lehman, Finan recommendation to buy or sell any security or 4.85 (67 financial instrument, or to participate in any votes) particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions Mish's Global Economic Tr Nationalization of AIG: Tre of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the stake in return for $85 billio 4.80 (114 author(s). The author may or may not have a votes) position in any company or advertiser referenced GDP Much Weaker Than H above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site 4.86 (59 votes) is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your Mish's Global Economic Tr investment adviser before making any investment 4.80 (106 decisions. votes) How Many Bullets Does Th Comment Guidelines: Comments should be succinct, constructive and relevant to the story. We 4.86 (63 votes) encourage engaging, diverse and meaningful Shopping Center Economic commentary. Comments that include personal 4.82 (78 attacks, racial, religious, or ethnic slurs are not permitted. We continuously review and remove any votes) Mish's Global Economic Tr inappropriate comments. 4.80 (95 Comments (0) votes) (44 votes) (32 votes) (59 votes) LBO Boom Over - Ontario Teacher's (52 votes) Pension Plan Off The Hook (54 votes) (115 votes) (52 votes)
In the summer of 2007, the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan agreed to buy BCE (a phone company) for an absurd price of C$52 billion ($42 billion). The deal was supposed to close December 11. Now the deal appears to be falling through over solvency issues. The Canadian Press is reporting BCE says Teachers' buyout 'unlikely to proceed' if solvency opinion not improved. Bell Canada's roller coaster ride to privatization may finally crash under the weight of its prospective massive debt after an accounting firm raised serious doubt that the world's largest leveraged corporate buyout could succeed. Bell parent BCE Inc. (BCE) said Wednesday a KPMG analysis indicated the company could not meet solvency tests in the agreement under which the company will be acquired by an investor group led by the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan.
(76 votes) (90 votes) (67 votes) (67 votes) (45 votes) (35 votes) (61 votes) (58 votes) (54 votes) (113 votes) (69 votes) (141 votes) (47 votes) (45 votes) (66 votes) (116 votes) (89 votes) (43 votes) (66 votes) (87 votes) (73 votes)
The opinion marked the latest hurdle for the $52billion cash and debt deal, the largest takeover in Canadian history. BCE said it disagrees, but "should KPMG be unable to deliver a favourable opinion on Dec. 11, 2008. (when the takeover is slated to close), the transaction is unlikely to proceed."
'No One Could Have Pred 11/21/2008 4:45:00 PM
What the Bear Market Has
Shares in the company were hammered down in heavy trading to their lowest level in six years. After falling to $23, they closed at $25.25, a drop of $13.10 or 34.16 per cent on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
11/26/2008 5:00:00 PM
KPMG indicated BCE meets solvency tests under its current capital structure - but would not after being weighted down with the debt involved in the proposed takeover. In coming to its conclusion, KPMG assessed the value of BCE's future liabilities and assets that have eroded with the market meltdown.
11/24/2008 6:00:00 PM
EURUSD: Patience 11/25/2008 4:15:00 PM
'Commodities Have Crash
GOLD: Not the 'Safe Have Is 11/17/2008 4:30:00 PM
European Stocks: Worst N
BCE's underfunded pension liabilities are believed to be one of several challenges faced by the Montreal company. Bottom?
Elliott Soifer, vice-president of Desjardins Securities International, said he doubts the deal can be salvaged by altering terms, including the $42.75 purchase price. But industry observers believe Teachers' and the consortium of banks are likely delighted by the KPMG opinion because it potentially clears a path to extricate themselves from a tightly written deal that was signed when market conditions were much brighter. They are also said not to be on the hook for a $1.2billion break fee, although the parties are expected to pay tens of millions of dollars in banking and legal fees. Citigroup and Toronto-Dominion Off The Hook Too Bloomberg is reporting Citigroup, TorontoDominion Gain on BCE Transaction. Citigroup Inc., Toronto-Dominion Bank and Deutsche Bank AG gained after BCE Inc. said its C$52 billion ($42 billion) takeover may collapse, helping the banks avert potential writedowns from financing the world’s second- largest leveraged buyout. Citigroup, Toronto-Dominion, Deutsche Bank and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc are on the hook for about $34 billion for financing the BCE takeover, according to regulatory filings. The banks face potential writedowns because the global credit crisis has pushed down loan values, and made it harder for the lenders to find other banks willing to take on some of the debt. The lenders have already taken writedowns from the credit crisis. The U.S. government agreed on Nov. 23 to support Citigroup with a $20 billion capital injection and a shield against losses on $306
10/31/2008 4:00:00 PM
If inflation is a quiet thief, th armed burglar. You wouldn your home, yet chances are two is stealing your money first step toward protecting understand which threat is arise today: deflation or infl important money-saving ste DETAILS>>
Posts from Calc • • • • •
Japan's Economy stopped turning" Everything you wan China ... Happy Thanksgiving UK: "Woolies" to C Christmas; 30,000 Jo The Slowdown in Ch
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Links 11/27/08 AIG Plans to Pay Re Executives China's Economic S Accelerated in Nove Gentrifying Gitmo Links 11/26/08
billion of loans. Toronto-Dominion was forced to sell as much as C$1.38 billion in common shares this week to shore up its balance sheet after posting trading losses. “It would have been nearly impossible,” to sell the loans, said Ron Mayers, vice chairman and head of alternative strategies of Desjardins Securities Inc. in Montreal. “Obviously that had negative financial implications for them.” The buyout group led by the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan agreed to buy BCE in June 2007. Toronto-based Ontario Teachers’ is the largest shareholder of Montreal-based BCE. Previously the Québec Pension Plan (Caisse) and the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan were on the hook for some $33 billion in ABCP. See 20 Canadian ABCP Trusts File Bankruptcy. Where there's slush, figure Citigroup and the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan will be deep in it. Leveraged Buyout Boom Is Over Bloomberg is reporting LBO Boom’s Last Vestiges Would Disappear With BCE Deal’s Demise. The C$52 billion ($42 billion) purchase of BCE Inc. by private-equity firms may collapse, erasing the last vestiges of a leveraged-buyout boom that ground to a halt almost 18 months ago. The BCE deal, led by Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, Madison Dearborn Partners LLC and Providence Equity Partners Inc, is biggest remnant of a record $1.42 trillion of LBOs in 2006 and 2007. Its demise would be more evidence of how private- equity firms have shifted from multibilliondollar buyouts to shopping for distressed companies amid a dearth of financing and a deepening global recession. “BCE is really an Old World transaction,” said Randy Schwimmer, senior managing director and head of capital markets of New York-based Churchill Financial LLC. “In the New World,
private equity buyers are looking to tease out value wherever it can be found, whether that’s in smaller new issues, distressed paper or mining their own portfolios.” Announced private-equity deals have dropped more than 70 percent to $202 billion so far this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The biggest transaction this year was the $7 billion stake bought by investors led by TPG Inc. in Washington Mutual Inc. That investment evaporated five months later when the U.S. government seized Washington Mutual’s assets, wiping out the TPG-led group’s $2 billion in equity. At least $55 billion of LBOs have fallen apart since last year. The botched transactions include J.C. Flowers & Co.‘s agreement to buy SLM Corp., the student lender known as Sallie Mae; casino operator Penn National Gaming Inc.‘s deal with Fortress Investment Group LLC; and KKR’s plan to buy Harman International Industries Inc. “It’s easy to imagine a scenario where we don’t have normalized markets again until 2011,” said Sean Ryan, an analyst at Sterne, Agee & Leach in New York. He pointed to the 1988 purchase by KKR of RJR Nabisco Inc., the $30 billion which stood as the biggest LBO on record until 2006. “After all, how many years did it take for RJR Nabisco to get eclipsed?” Ryan said. BCE Weekly Chart
click on chart for sharper image The Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan is the largest shareholder of BCE. If the deal collapses, the teachers can thank their lucky stars they are not the only shareholder. Canada May Have First Deficit Since 1997
While on the subject of Canada, inquiring minds are noting Canada May Project First Deficit Since 1997 Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty probably will project the government’s first deficit in 13 years today as revenue evaporates, and may confirm the world’s eighth-biggest economy is on the brink of a recession. “Don’t worry about the deficits,” said Mike McCracken, chairman of forecasting company Informetrica Ltd. in Ottawa. At a meeting this month of the Group of 20 industrialized and emerging economies in Washington, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn urged nations to inject stimulus worth 2 percent of gross domestic product. For Canada, that would represent about C$30 billion. Harper himself said the day before that Canada would run a “short-term” deficit to stimulate the economy if necessary, though he would seek to avoid a series of deficits that would outlast a period of sluggish growth. The government must help companies in the auto industry immediately, because “they might run out of money within weeks, and it’s quite possible they’ll be bankrupt if we wait until February,” John McCallum, a Liberal Party legislator and former chief economist with Royal Bank of Canada, said yesterday. “We’re seeing consumers being very careful with their spending -- they’ll fix something when it breaks, but when it can wait, it waits,” said Richard Roy, president of Boucherville, Quebec-based automotive-parts distributor Uni- Select Inc. “All the economists who seem worth listening to are saying you have to spend in order to get out of a situation like this,” said Laura Singleton, 49, a homemaker visiting Parliament with her family from Rainy River, Ontario. “My understanding is
that we aren’t doing any measures like that at the moment. I am wondering why.” Don't Worry About Deficits Just Spend Financial insanity is nearly everywhere you look. CBCNews is reporting Flaherty hints at early budget to stimulate economy. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty may table the next federal budget early to include infrastructure spending and other provisions to stimulate the ailing economy. He said any package could be included in a soonerthan-scheduled budget, although he did not give a specific date. His officials also suggested that announcing stimulus measures before the next budget is a possibility. Flaherty noted that the government has already committed to a $33-billion infrastructure fund that needed to begin releasing money sooner rather than later. On Sunday, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group's summit in Lima, Prime Minister Stephen Harper made similar comments that the economy appears headed for a technical recession and might have already slowed to "just about zero" growth. Harper also suggested during the summit that the Canadian government will introduce a stimulus package to boost the economy, while trying to avoid setting the stage for a long-term government deficit. Signalling a shift in his usual anti-deficit stance, he acknowledged that countries that choose to implement fiscal stimulus packages will likely find it necessary to run budgetary deficits. The prime minister noted, however, that whatever short-term new spending his government pursues, it "will ensure that Canada does not return to longterm structural budgetary deficits."
Canadian Reality The reality is Canada is in a recession, that recession is going to pick up steam, and there is nothing Canada can do about it that makes any sense. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List LBO Boom Over - Ontario Teacher's Pension Plan Off The Hook Posted by Michael Shedlock at 4:10 AM .... Print .... Email To receive a free copy of our monthly letter to clients in your inbox every month, register your email address at the bottom of the Sitka Pacific Commentary Page. Buy Gold and Silver Online at GoldMoney The Best Way to Buy Gold and Silver Disclaimer:The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions. Comment Guidelines: Comments should be succinct, constructive and relevant to the story. We encourage engaging, diverse and meaningful commentary. Comments that include personal attacks, racial, religious, or ethnic slurs are not
permitted. We continuously review and remove any inappropriate comments. Comments (0)
Wednesday, November 26, 2008 Case Shiller and CAR Analysis November 2008 Release
California Association of Realtors C.A.R. Data The following chart is from my friend "TC" who has been monitoring California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) and DQNews data. C.A.R. data contains resale single family residences and new homes. DQNews data contains resale single family residences and new homes.
Median nominal prices in CA are now down 47% according to CAR and 42% according to DQNews and those declines are in less than 18 months! Case-Shiller is a more accurate way of looking at home prices than median prices. Case-Shiller data follows. Case Shiller November Release Inquiring minds are considering the Case Shiller Home Price Release for November 2008. New York, October 28, 2008 – Data through August 2008, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, a trend that prevailed throughout the first
half of 2008 and has continued into the second half. The chart below depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite and the 20City Composite Home Price Indices. The decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – remained in double digits, posting a record 16.6% decline in the third quarter of 2008 versus the third quarter of 2007. This has increased from the annual declines of 15.1% and 14.0%, reported for the 2nd and 1st quarters of the year, respectively. The 10City and 20-City Composites continue to set new records, with annual declines of 18.6% and 17.4%, respectively.
click on chart for sharper image Case-Shiller Declines Since Peak The following charts were produced by my friend "TC" who has been monitoring Case-Shiller Data. Although individual cities topped at varying times, the top-10 and top-20 city composites peaked in a June-July 2006 timeframe. Case-Shiller Declines Since Peak Current Data
click on chart for sharper image Case-Shiller Declines Since Peak Futures Data
click on chart for sharper image "TC" writes: The housing numbers are as grim as expected. The CAR housing numbers reflect Oct 2008 which are actual sales in late August and September (read pre-
market meltdown). The price declines range from 30% to 60% with median price declines between $130,000 and $800,000. It now appears that the high end market price declines are picking up steam and will likely mirror the price declines of the bottom and middle end markets. More and more of my friends and friends of friends (many of whom did NOT leverage themselves like typical Californians) are talking about walking away from their homes. The fact that upper middle class Californians some of who put 5%, 10% or even 20% down would even consider walking away tells you the scope of the problem. The Case-Shiller numbers are for September 2008 which do not reflect any of the market meltdown. Price declines in excess of 10% are now occurring nearly everywhere, although the median dollar declines are only above $100,000 in those markets that experienced extreme price appreciation (CA, AZ, NV, FL). The trading in the futures markets continues to reflect nominal price declines for the next 2-3 years with prices plateauing afterwards (they only price out 60 months forward. Thanks "TC" With unemployment poised to rise in 2009 it is extremely unlikely that housing bottoms anytime soon. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Case Shiller and CAR Analysis November 2008 Release Posted by Michael Shedlock at 2:38 PM .... Print .... Email To receive a free copy of our monthly letter to clients in your inbox every month, register your email address at the bottom of the Sitka Pacific Commentary Page. Buy Gold and Silver Online at GoldMoney The Best Way to Buy Gold and Silver
Disclaimer:The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions. Comment Guidelines: Comments should be succinct, constructive and relevant to the story. We encourage engaging, diverse and meaningful commentary. Comments that include personal attacks, racial, religious, or ethnic slurs are not permitted. We continuously review and remove any inappropriate comments. Comments (0
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Thursday, November 27, 2008
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Mike Shedlo Chesapeake a registered i Energy, Largest advisor repre Chesapeake Energy, Largest US Natural US Natural Gas for SitkaPaci Producer, Runs Gas Producer, Runs Out Of Cash Management Out Of Cash reading... LBO Boom Over - Ontario Teacher's Pension YahooFinance is reporting Chesapeake Energy may Plan Off The sell $1.8B stock to get cash. Hook Case Shiller and Chesapeake Energy Corp., the nation's largest . producer of natural gas, seeks to raise up to $1.8 . Mish Audio CAR Analysis November 2008 billion through common stock sales in an effort to Release fund its drilling and exploration activities and October 23, 2008 Durable Goods mitigate the impact of lower natural gas prices on TDI Episode 80: Predicting Orders And cash flow. DOWN Consumer Spending Plunge In two filings with the Securities and Exchange October 17, 2008 Grim FDIC Commission late Wednesday, the company said it Commodity Watch Radio Quarterly will issue shares worth as much as $1 billion before markets Michael Hampton, Banking Profile fees and also registered 50 million shares worth at State of New most $791 million for potential sale. August 24,2008 Jersey Is Insolvent Commodity Watch Radio Government To Oklahoma City, Okla.-based Chesapeake said it Deflation? Part 1 James Tur Commit Another will use proceeds from the $1 billion offering for Hampton, Mish
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$600 Billion On Mortgages, Another $200 Billion on TALF Bailout Pledges Hit $7.7 Trillion Citigroup Bailout Raises Viability Questions For Entire Banking System New York May Lose 225,000 Financial Jobs Citigroup Bailout Terms of Agreement Citigroup Bailout Agreement Reached
general corporate purposes, including fund exploration, development and other capital expenditures.
Boomp3.com
The move would dilute holdings of shareholders, who already suffered through a substantial decline in Chesapeake's stock price this year. Shares closed at $20.24 on Wednesday, off 73 percent from the stock's $74 52-week high set this summer.
Top Ten Posts Top Hot • April Jobs - Another Report World 4.97 (82 Chesapeake has used up the remaining financing • votes) available under its $3.5 billion bank credit facility Fed Uncertainty Principle and only $251 million is left of another $460 4.90 (181 million credit line. Credit markets remain tight with • votes) financial institutions under duress. Dear Citigroup Customer ... CHK Daily Chart 4.89 (174 votes) Citigroup VIEs Raise Quest 4.92 (98 votes) Featured Links click on chart for sharper image Mish's Global Economic Tr 4.88 (162 • GoldMoney: The This is the same silliness we saw with banks and votes) Best Way to Buy financials. The companies kept paying MBIA Maintains Highest R Gold & Silver unsustainable dividends and buying back shares at 4.87 (165 • Dollar Collapse ridiculous prices. They did not raise money when votes) News on the they could but rather when they were forced to. GM's Last Fatal Mistake Dollar's Death 4.93 (71 Spiral Can anyone ever get this right? votes) • Get Involved The Credit Default Swap Tsunam State of the Petrobras Cash Shortage 4.89 (99 Union's Finances: votes) A Citizen's Guide In Brazil, Petrobras Cash Shortage Led to Tax Repackaged Mortgage Garb • Abolish The Fed Loan. 4.92 (71 Sign the Petition Petroleo Brasileiro SA was forced to borrow 2 votes) • Jekyll Island billion reais ($881 million) from Brazilian stateEdward Griffin - owned discount bank Caixa Economica Federal as Deflation In A Fiat Regime? 4.85 (147 Creature From it faced “momentary difficulty” paying taxes, votes) Jekyll Island Energy Minister Edison Lobao said. Fed Defends The Indefensib • 3 "Implode-O4.89 (82 Meters" Mortgage Petrobras, as the state-controlled oil company is votes) Lenders known, said record profit in the third quarter Eight States In Deep Fiscal Banks resulted in a 11.4 billion-real tax bill in October, But the company said cash flow, borrowings and cash on hand have not been enough to pay for capital expenditures.
Home Builders
Recommended Books • • •
• • • • • • • •
• • •
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about 5 percent more than the 10.8 billion reais of cash it had on hand at the end of September, the Rio de Janeiro-based company said in a note on the Brazilian security regulator’s Web site. “There were taxes that Petrobras had to pay that they really shouldn’t have had to pay because they weren’t generated by operating profit but by the strengthening of the dollar,” Lobao told reporters in Brasilia. “The company had to take money out of its cash holding to pay the taxes.” Petrobras, which has spent more than 20 billion reais on investment so far this year and paid $6.2 billion in dividends, may also have had to borrow money from state-controlled Banco do Brasil SA to meet its obligations, Senator Tasso Jereissati said in a telephone interview. The cash-flow problems may also have forced Petrobras to delay payments to suppliers over the last 30 days, Jereissati said. Petrobras officials weren’t immediately available to respond to Jereissati’s comments. Petrobras said about a third, or 3.5 billion reais, of its record 10.9 billion-real third-quarter profit was the result of a 19 percent increase in the value of the dollar against the real in the quarter. Petrobras’s ability to generate cash and borrow may be further hurt by a 60 percent decline in the price of oil since reaching a high in July and the world credit crunch sparked by recent U.S. bank failures, Lucas Brendler, an energy analyst at Banco Geracao Futuro in Porto Alegre, Brazil, said yesterday.
4.89 (77 votes) Bernanke Asks Taxpayers T 4.86 (118 votes) What Exactly Is The G7 pla 4.89 (76 votes) Congressional Insanity: Sue Prices 4.84 (136 votes) Canada's Housing Boom Is 4.89 (78 votes) May Jobs: Unemployment S 4.89 (77 votes) Evidence of "Walking Away Mortgage Pool 4.84 (138 votes) The $1.1 Trillion HELOC P 4.87 (86 votes) Bankruptcies: The No. 1 Gr 4.88 (81 votes) Mish's Global Economic Tr Crime In Buying AIG Time 4.85 (106 votes) Mish's Global Economic Tr 4.82 (161 votes) WaMu's Suspect Mortgage 4.89 (69 votes) Mish's Global Economic Tr 4.84 (107 votes) Nature of the Fannie Mae B 4.84 (108 votes) Mish's Global Economic Tr Paulson Rolls The Dice At T
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OPEC Has All Options Open In other energy news, OPEC Has All Options Open, Including Cut. OPEC has all options open, including a cut in production, when it meets this weekend in Cairo, said Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corp. “We have to look for the possibility of stabilizing the market,” Ghanem told reporters when he arrived at his hotel. “The whole financial market is in a shambles so prices may still go down more, but we are sure it’s going to rebound.” The 13 members of OPEC, which supply more than 40 percent of the world’s oil, are meeting for the third time in as many months to discuss a further cut in production after crude prices plunged more than 60 percent from July’s all-time high of $147.27 a barrel. The crude oil market is over-supplied, OPEC Secretary- General Abdalla el-Badri said today in an interview in Cairo. He declined to recommend a course of action, saying any decision concerning production quotas was up to ministers to take. Oil demand is falling faster than expected, Hasan Qabazard, head of research at the group’s secrectariat, said in an interview in Cairo today. Peak Oil vs. Falling Demand In the battle between Peak Oil vs. Falling Demand, falling demand is clearly winning even though OPEC member Libya suggests "We are sure oil prices are going to rebound.” If OPEC is so sure prices will rebound, exactly why is a production cut necessary and why are inventories at 5 year highs? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Chesapeake Energy, Largest US Natural Gas
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Nothing Left To Lose At Am Producer, Runs Out Of Cash Posted by Michael Shedlock at 4:14 PM .... Print .... 4.83 (83 votes) Email Mish's Global Economic Tr To receive a free copy of our monthly letter 4.80 (116 to clients in your inbox every month, register your votes) Bernanke Urges Action to S email address at the bottom of the Sitka Pacific 4.84 (78 Commentary Page. votes) Mish's Global Economic Tr Buy Gold and Silver Online at GoldMoney 4.83 (86 The Best Way to Buy Gold and Silver votes) WaMu Pool WMALT 2007 Disclaimer:The content on this site is provided as Update general information only and should not be taken 4.83 (85 as investment advice. All site content, including votes) advertisements, shall not be construed as a Wild Ride In Lehman, Finan recommendation to buy or sell any security or 4.85 (67 financial instrument, or to participate in any votes) particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions Mish's Global Economic Tr Nationalization of AIG: Tre of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the stake in return for $85 billio 4.80 (114 author(s). The author may or may not have a votes) position in any company or advertiser referenced GDP Much Weaker Than H above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site 4.86 (59 votes) is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your Mish's Global Economic Tr investment adviser before making any investment 4.80 (106 decisions. votes) How Many Bullets Does Th Comment Guidelines: Comments should be succinct, constructive and relevant to the story. We 4.86 (63 votes) encourage engaging, diverse and meaningful Shopping Center Economic commentary. Comments that include personal 4.82 (78 attacks, racial, religious, or ethnic slurs are not permitted. We continuously review and remove any votes) Mish's Global Economic Tr inappropriate comments. 4.80 (95 Comments (0) votes) (44 votes) (32 votes) (59 votes) LBO Boom Over - Ontario Teacher's (52 votes) Pension Plan Off The Hook (54 votes) (115 votes) (52 votes)
In the summer of 2007, the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan agreed to buy BCE (a phone company) for an absurd price of C$52 billion ($42 billion). The deal was supposed to close December 11. Now the deal appears to be falling through over solvency issues. The Canadian Press is reporting BCE says Teachers' buyout 'unlikely to proceed' if solvency opinion not improved. Bell Canada's roller coaster ride to privatization may finally crash under the weight of its prospective massive debt after an accounting firm raised serious doubt that the world's largest leveraged corporate buyout could succeed. Bell parent BCE Inc. (BCE) said Wednesday a KPMG analysis indicated the company could not meet solvency tests in the agreement under which the company will be acquired by an investor group led by the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan.
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The opinion marked the latest hurdle for the $52billion cash and debt deal, the largest takeover in Canadian history. BCE said it disagrees, but "should KPMG be unable to deliver a favourable opinion on Dec. 11, 2008. (when the takeover is slated to close), the transaction is unlikely to proceed."
'No One Could Have Pred 11/21/2008 4:45:00 PM
What the Bear Market Has
Shares in the company were hammered down in heavy trading to their lowest level in six years. After falling to $23, they closed at $25.25, a drop of $13.10 or 34.16 per cent on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
11/26/2008 5:00:00 PM
KPMG indicated BCE meets solvency tests under its current capital structure - but would not after being weighted down with the debt involved in the proposed takeover. In coming to its conclusion, KPMG assessed the value of BCE's future liabilities and assets that have eroded with the market meltdown.
11/24/2008 6:00:00 PM
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BCE's underfunded pension liabilities are believed to be one of several challenges faced by the Montreal company. Bottom?
Elliott Soifer, vice-president of Desjardins Securities International, said he doubts the deal can be salvaged by altering terms, including the $42.75 purchase price. But industry observers believe Teachers' and the consortium of banks are likely delighted by the KPMG opinion because it potentially clears a path to extricate themselves from a tightly written deal that was signed when market conditions were much brighter. They are also said not to be on the hook for a $1.2billion break fee, although the parties are expected to pay tens of millions of dollars in banking and legal fees. Citigroup and Toronto-Dominion Off The Hook Too Bloomberg is reporting Citigroup, TorontoDominion Gain on BCE Transaction. Citigroup Inc., Toronto-Dominion Bank and Deutsche Bank AG gained after BCE Inc. said its C$52 billion ($42 billion) takeover may collapse, helping the banks avert potential writedowns from financing the world’s second- largest leveraged buyout. Citigroup, Toronto-Dominion, Deutsche Bank and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc are on the hook for about $34 billion for financing the BCE takeover, according to regulatory filings. The banks face potential writedowns because the global credit crisis has pushed down loan values, and made it harder for the lenders to find other banks willing to take on some of the debt. The lenders have already taken writedowns from the credit crisis. The U.S. government agreed on Nov. 23 to support Citigroup with a $20 billion capital injection and a shield against losses on $306
10/31/2008 4:00:00 PM
If inflation is a quiet thief, th armed burglar. You wouldn your home, yet chances are two is stealing your money first step toward protecting understand which threat is arise today: deflation or infl important money-saving ste DETAILS>>
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billion of loans. Toronto-Dominion was forced to sell as much as C$1.38 billion in common shares this week to shore up its balance sheet after posting trading losses. “It would have been nearly impossible,” to sell the loans, said Ron Mayers, vice chairman and head of alternative strategies of Desjardins Securities Inc. in Montreal. “Obviously that had negative financial implications for them.” The buyout group led by the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan agreed to buy BCE in June 2007. Toronto-based Ontario Teachers’ is the largest shareholder of Montreal-based BCE. Previously the Québec Pension Plan (Caisse) and the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan were on the hook for some $33 billion in ABCP. See 20 Canadian ABCP Trusts File Bankruptcy. Where there's slush, figure Citigroup and the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan will be deep in it. Leveraged Buyout Boom Is Over Bloomberg is reporting LBO Boom’s Last Vestiges Would Disappear With BCE Deal’s Demise. The C$52 billion ($42 billion) purchase of BCE Inc. by private-equity firms may collapse, erasing the last vestiges of a leveraged-buyout boom that ground to a halt almost 18 months ago. The BCE deal, led by Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, Madison Dearborn Partners LLC and Providence Equity Partners Inc, is biggest remnant of a record $1.42 trillion of LBOs in 2006 and 2007. Its demise would be more evidence of how private- equity firms have shifted from multibilliondollar buyouts to shopping for distressed companies amid a dearth of financing and a deepening global recession. “BCE is really an Old World transaction,” said Randy Schwimmer, senior managing director and head of capital markets of New York-based Churchill Financial LLC. “In the New World,
private equity buyers are looking to tease out value wherever it can be found, whether that’s in smaller new issues, distressed paper or mining their own portfolios.” Announced private-equity deals have dropped more than 70 percent to $202 billion so far this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The biggest transaction this year was the $7 billion stake bought by investors led by TPG Inc. in Washington Mutual Inc. That investment evaporated five months later when the U.S. government seized Washington Mutual’s assets, wiping out the TPG-led group’s $2 billion in equity. At least $55 billion of LBOs have fallen apart since last year. The botched transactions include J.C. Flowers & Co.‘s agreement to buy SLM Corp., the student lender known as Sallie Mae; casino operator Penn National Gaming Inc.‘s deal with Fortress Investment Group LLC; and KKR’s plan to buy Harman International Industries Inc. “It’s easy to imagine a scenario where we don’t have normalized markets again until 2011,” said Sean Ryan, an analyst at Sterne, Agee & Leach in New York. He pointed to the 1988 purchase by KKR of RJR Nabisco Inc., the $30 billion which stood as the biggest LBO on record until 2006. “After all, how many years did it take for RJR Nabisco to get eclipsed?” Ryan said. BCE Weekly Chart
click on chart for sharper image The Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan is the largest shareholder of BCE. If the deal collapses, the teachers can thank their lucky stars they are not the only shareholder. Canada May Have First Deficit Since 1997
While on the subject of Canada, inquiring minds are noting Canada May Project First Deficit Since 1997 Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty probably will project the government’s first deficit in 13 years today as revenue evaporates, and may confirm the world’s eighth-biggest economy is on the brink of a recession. “Don’t worry about the deficits,” said Mike McCracken, chairman of forecasting company Informetrica Ltd. in Ottawa. At a meeting this month of the Group of 20 industrialized and emerging economies in Washington, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn urged nations to inject stimulus worth 2 percent of gross domestic product. For Canada, that would represent about C$30 billion. Harper himself said the day before that Canada would run a “short-term” deficit to stimulate the economy if necessary, though he would seek to avoid a series of deficits that would outlast a period of sluggish growth. The government must help companies in the auto industry immediately, because “they might run out of money within weeks, and it’s quite possible they’ll be bankrupt if we wait until February,” John McCallum, a Liberal Party legislator and former chief economist with Royal Bank of Canada, said yesterday. “We’re seeing consumers being very careful with their spending -- they’ll fix something when it breaks, but when it can wait, it waits,” said Richard Roy, president of Boucherville, Quebec-based automotive-parts distributor Uni- Select Inc. “All the economists who seem worth listening to are saying you have to spend in order to get out of a situation like this,” said Laura Singleton, 49, a homemaker visiting Parliament with her family from Rainy River, Ontario. “My understanding is
that we aren’t doing any measures like that at the moment. I am wondering why.” Don't Worry About Deficits Just Spend Financial insanity is nearly everywhere you look. CBCNews is reporting Flaherty hints at early budget to stimulate economy. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty may table the next federal budget early to include infrastructure spending and other provisions to stimulate the ailing economy. He said any package could be included in a soonerthan-scheduled budget, although he did not give a specific date. His officials also suggested that announcing stimulus measures before the next budget is a possibility. Flaherty noted that the government has already committed to a $33-billion infrastructure fund that needed to begin releasing money sooner rather than later. On Sunday, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group's summit in Lima, Prime Minister Stephen Harper made similar comments that the economy appears headed for a technical recession and might have already slowed to "just about zero" growth. Harper also suggested during the summit that the Canadian government will introduce a stimulus package to boost the economy, while trying to avoid setting the stage for a long-term government deficit. Signalling a shift in his usual anti-deficit stance, he acknowledged that countries that choose to implement fiscal stimulus packages will likely find it necessary to run budgetary deficits. The prime minister noted, however, that whatever short-term new spending his government pursues, it "will ensure that Canada does not return to longterm structural budgetary deficits."
Canadian Reality The reality is Canada is in a recession, that recession is going to pick up steam, and there is nothing Canada can do about it that makes any sense. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List LBO Boom Over - Ontario Teacher's Pension Plan Off The Hook Posted by Michael Shedlock at 4:10 AM .... Print .... Email To receive a free copy of our monthly letter to clients in your inbox every month, register your email address at the bottom of the Sitka Pacific Commentary Page. Buy Gold and Silver Online at GoldMoney The Best Way to Buy Gold and Silver Disclaimer:The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions. Comment Guidelines: Comments should be succinct, constructive and relevant to the story. We encourage engaging, diverse and meaningful commentary. Comments that include personal attacks, racial, religious, or ethnic slurs are not
permitted. We continuously review and remove any inappropriate comments. Comments (0)
Wednesday, November 26, 2008 Case Shiller and CAR Analysis November 2008 Release
California Association of Realtors C.A.R. Data The following chart is from my friend "TC" who has been monitoring California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) and DQNews data. C.A.R. data contains resale single family residences and new homes. DQNews data contains resale single family residences and new homes.
Median nominal prices in CA are now down 47% according to CAR and 42% according to DQNews and those declines are in less than 18 months! Case-Shiller is a more accurate way of looking at home prices than median prices. Case-Shiller data follows. Case Shiller November Release Inquiring minds are considering the Case Shiller Home Price Release for November 2008. New York, October 28, 2008 – Data through August 2008, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, a trend that prevailed throughout the first
half of 2008 and has continued into the second half. The chart below depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite and the 20City Composite Home Price Indices. The decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – remained in double digits, posting a record 16.6% decline in the third quarter of 2008 versus the third quarter of 2007. This has increased from the annual declines of 15.1% and 14.0%, reported for the 2nd and 1st quarters of the year, respectively. The 10City and 20-City Composites continue to set new records, with annual declines of 18.6% and 17.4%, respectively.
click on chart for sharper image Case-Shiller Declines Since Peak The following charts were produced by my friend "TC" who has been monitoring Case-Shiller Data. Although individual cities topped at varying times, the top-10 and top-20 city composites peaked in a June-July 2006 timeframe. Case-Shiller Declines Since Peak Current Data
click on chart for sharper image Case-Shiller Declines Since Peak Futures Data
click on chart for sharper image "TC" writes: The housing numbers are as grim as expected. The CAR housing numbers reflect Oct 2008 which are actual sales in late August and September (read pre-
market meltdown). The price declines range from 30% to 60% with median price declines between $130,000 and $800,000. It now appears that the high end market price declines are picking up steam and will likely mirror the price declines of the bottom and middle end markets. More and more of my friends and friends of friends (many of whom did NOT leverage themselves like typical Californians) are talking about walking away from their homes. The fact that upper middle class Californians some of who put 5%, 10% or even 20% down would even consider walking away tells you the scope of the problem. The Case-Shiller numbers are for September 2008 which do not reflect any of the market meltdown. Price declines in excess of 10% are now occurring nearly everywhere, although the median dollar declines are only above $100,000 in those markets that experienced extreme price appreciation (CA, AZ, NV, FL). The trading in the futures markets continues to reflect nominal price declines for the next 2-3 years with prices plateauing afterwards (they only price out 60 months forward. Thanks "TC" With unemployment poised to rise in 2009 it is extremely unlikely that housing bottoms anytime soon. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Case Shiller and CAR Analysis November 2008 Release Posted by Michael Shedlock at 2:38 PM .... Print .... Email To receive a free copy of our monthly letter to clients in your inbox every month, register your email address at the bottom of the Sitka Pacific Commentary Page. Buy Gold and Silver Online at GoldMoney The Best Way to Buy Gold and Silver
Disclaimer:The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions. Comment Guidelines: Comments should be succinct, constructive and relevant to the story. We encourage engaging, diverse and meaningful commentary. Comments that include personal attacks, racial, religious, or ethnic slurs are not permitted. We continuously review and remove any inappropriate comments. Comments (0
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