Mi-07: Myers Research Poll For Mark Schauer (may 2008)

Memorandum Date:

July 29, 2008

To:

The Schauer Campaign

From:

Andrew Myers Contest a Dead Heat

According to our latest survey1 little has changed from the trend we saw in August of last year. Today, Schauer remains locked in a dead heat with Walberg at the survey’s first, uninformed ballot, 37 to 40 percent, -3 net. Moreover, in a simulated model, where undecided voters are allocated to candidates based on their self-described partisan leanings, the contest remains competitive, 45 to 47 percent, -2 net. In the other contests above Schauer, Levin leads Hoogendyk by a 15-point edge, while Obama and McCain are locked in a dead heat, 42 percent apiece. On other key measures Walberg also proves wounded. Walberg’s re-elect is an abysmal 35 percent, with one-third of voters saying they would prefer someone new (33 percent), and perceptions of his job performance remain net negative as well, with just 34 percent saying he is doing an excellent to good job, while a plurality, 42 percent, say fair to poor. Today, Schauer is identified by 42 percent of voters and continues to earn a better than two-toone warm to cool ratio, 23 percent warm, favorable reviews, and 9 percent cool, unfavorable reviews. Walberg, on the other hand, remains far better known than Schauer from the start, with 74 percent able to identify him, but his warm to cool ratio is less than two-to-one, 36 percent warm, 23 percent cool. While the contest remains generally unchanged, there is evidence that voters are ready for change. Specifically, while voters were sour to begin with in our survey in August, this electorate has soured further, and just two-in-ten voters today report that things in the United States are on the right track, while seven-in-ten say they are pretty seriously off on the wrong track. Bottom line, this contest remains close despite Walberg’s significant expenditures on incumbency protection, and Walberg remains critically wounded on every key measure for an incumbent. Voters appear more aligned for change today, and Schauer will have the resources to press the case come Election Day.

1

These findings are based on a survey of 600 likely voters in the base sample, augmented by a regional oversample of 203 likely voters in Detroit, Toledo, and Battle Creek Media Markets. Calling took place between May 8 – 15, 2008. All calls were conducted by professional interviewers, and overseen by Myers Research staff. As weighted, the margin of error for these data at a 95 in 100 percent confidence level is +/- 4.0 The margin of error for subgroups is greater.

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