Metabolic Market Forecast - Table Of Contents
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Therapeutic Market Outlooks
Obesity Publication Date: December 2007 Table of Contents Disease Etiology................................................................... 6 Determination of Diagnosis.............................................. 6 Epidemiology & Patient Population Estimates........................... 7 Theoretical Patient Population.......................................... 7 Overweight Population .............................................. 7 Obese Population ..................................................... 7 Addressable Patient Population ........................................ 9 Treated Patient Population .............................................. 9 Obesity Patient Population Model ................................... 11 Disease & Market Definitions ............................................... 12 Drug Classes................................................................ 12 Reduce Energy Intake ............................................. 12 Nutrient Partitioning/Lipase Inhibitor......................... 12 Increase Energy Expenditure ................................... 12 Other .................................................................... 12 Off-Label Use............................................................... 13 Drugs to Treat Depression ....................................... 13 Drugs to Treat Seizures ........................................... 13 Drugs to Treat Diabetes .......................................... 13 OTC Drugs for Obesity .................................................. 13 Alli (orlistat) ........................................................... 13 5-HTP/Tryptophan .................................................. 13 Calcium/Vitamin D .................................................. 14 Cimetidine ............................................................. 14 Conjugated Linoleic Acid.......................................... 14 Ephedrine .............................................................. 14 Hoodia .................................................................. 14 Teas ..................................................................... 14 Compounds with Questionable Weight-Loss Results ......... 15 Chitosan ................................................................ 15 Chromium.............................................................. 15
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Garcinia Cambogia.................................................. 15 Hypericum ............................................................. 15 Melatonin .............................................................. 15 Leptoprin............................................................... 16 Bariatric Surgery .......................................................... 16 Restrictive Procedures ............................................. 16 Malabsorptive Procedures ........................................ 16 Combination Procedures.......................................... 17 Forecasting Methodology............................................... 17 Market Revenue Forecasts............................................. 17 U.S. Obesity Market Model, 2004-2013 ........................... 19 AVOS Physician Panel Results .............................................. 21 Physician Treatment Patterns......................................... 21 Patient Compliance ....................................................... 23 High Cost............................................................... 23 Negative Side Effect Profile...................................... 23 Behavioral and Lifestyle Changes.............................. 23 Physician Product Selection Criteria ................................ 24 Cost of Therapy...................................................... 24 Tolerability............................................................. 24 Long Term Efficacy ................................................. 24 Historical Physician Use Patterns .............................. 24 Patient Response .................................................... 25 Availability of Drug Samples..................................... 25 Physician Product Ratings & Forecasts of Future Market Trends ........................................................................ 25 Market Overview ................................................................ 29 Leading Products.......................................................... 29 Market History ............................................................. 29 Current Market Environment.......................................... 31 Economic Issues Associated with Obesity ........................ 32 Economic Consequences ......................................... 32 Product Profiles Xenical ........................................................................ 33 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 33 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 34 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 34 www.avoslifesciences.com
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Product History ...................................................... 35 Meridia........................................................................ 36 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 36 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 37 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 37 Product History ...................................................... 38 Phentermine ................................................................ 39 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 39 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 40 Product History ...................................................... 40 Phendimetrazine/Diethylpropion/Benzphetamine .............. 41 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 41 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 42 Product History ...................................................... 42 Cetilistat...................................................................... 43 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 43 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 44 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 44 Rimonabant ................................................................. 45 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 45 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 46 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 47 Taranabant/CP-945,598/SLV-319 ................................... 48 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 49 Product History ...................................................... 50 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 51 Lorcaserin ................................................................... 52 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 52 Product History ...................................................... 53 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 53 Liraglutide ................................................................... 55 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 55 Product History ...................................................... 55 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 56 Pramlintide + Leptin ..................................................... 57 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 57 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 58 www.avoslifesciences.com
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AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 58 Drugs in Development ........................................................ 59 R&D Overview ............................................................. 59 Cannabinoid-1 Receptor Antagonists......................... 59 Lipase Inhibitors..................................................... 59 Serotonin Agonists.................................................. 59 Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Agonists ............................. 59 Amylin Agonist ....................................................... 59 Assessment of R&D Success Rates ................................. 60 Products in the Pipeline................................................. 61 Phase III (Seven Agents)......................................... 61 Phase II (10 Agents)............................................... 62
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Obesity Publication Date: December 2007 Table of Contents Disease Etiology................................................................... 6 Determination of Diagnosis.............................................. 6 Epidemiology & Patient Population Estimates........................... 7 Theoretical Patient Population.......................................... 7 Overweight Population .............................................. 7 Obese Population ..................................................... 7 Addressable Patient Population ........................................ 9 Treated Patient Population .............................................. 9 Obesity Patient Population Model ................................... 11 Disease & Market Definitions ............................................... 12 Drug Classes................................................................ 12 Reduce Energy Intake ............................................. 12 Nutrient Partitioning/Lipase Inhibitor......................... 12 Increase Energy Expenditure ................................... 12 Other .................................................................... 12 Off-Label Use............................................................... 13 Drugs to Treat Depression ....................................... 13 Drugs to Treat Seizures ........................................... 13 Drugs to Treat Diabetes .......................................... 13 OTC Drugs for Obesity .................................................. 13 Alli (orlistat) ........................................................... 13 5-HTP/Tryptophan .................................................. 13 Calcium/Vitamin D .................................................. 14 Cimetidine ............................................................. 14 Conjugated Linoleic Acid.......................................... 14 Ephedrine .............................................................. 14 Hoodia .................................................................. 14 Teas ..................................................................... 14 Compounds with Questionable Weight-Loss Results ......... 15 Chitosan ................................................................ 15 Chromium.............................................................. 15
www.avoslifesciences.com
[email protected]
Garcinia Cambogia.................................................. 15 Hypericum ............................................................. 15 Melatonin .............................................................. 15 Leptoprin............................................................... 16 Bariatric Surgery .......................................................... 16 Restrictive Procedures ............................................. 16 Malabsorptive Procedures ........................................ 16 Combination Procedures.......................................... 17 Forecasting Methodology............................................... 17 Market Revenue Forecasts............................................. 17 U.S. Obesity Market Model, 2004-2013 ........................... 19 AVOS Physician Panel Results .............................................. 21 Physician Treatment Patterns......................................... 21 Patient Compliance ....................................................... 23 High Cost............................................................... 23 Negative Side Effect Profile...................................... 23 Behavioral and Lifestyle Changes.............................. 23 Physician Product Selection Criteria ................................ 24 Cost of Therapy...................................................... 24 Tolerability............................................................. 24 Long Term Efficacy ................................................. 24 Historical Physician Use Patterns .............................. 24 Patient Response .................................................... 25 Availability of Drug Samples..................................... 25 Physician Product Ratings & Forecasts of Future Market Trends ........................................................................ 25 Market Overview ................................................................ 29 Leading Products.......................................................... 29 Market History ............................................................. 29 Current Market Environment.......................................... 31 Economic Issues Associated with Obesity ........................ 32 Economic Consequences ......................................... 32 Product Profiles Xenical ........................................................................ 33 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 33 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 34 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 34 www.avoslifesciences.com
[email protected]
Product History ...................................................... 35 Meridia........................................................................ 36 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 36 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 37 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 37 Product History ...................................................... 38 Phentermine ................................................................ 39 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 39 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 40 Product History ...................................................... 40 Phendimetrazine/Diethylpropion/Benzphetamine .............. 41 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 41 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 42 Product History ...................................................... 42 Cetilistat...................................................................... 43 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 43 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 44 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 44 Rimonabant ................................................................. 45 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 45 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 46 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 47 Taranabant/CP-945,598/SLV-319 ................................... 48 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 49 Product History ...................................................... 50 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 51 Lorcaserin ................................................................... 52 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 52 Product History ...................................................... 53 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 53 Liraglutide ................................................................... 55 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 55 Product History ...................................................... 55 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 56 Pramlintide + Leptin ..................................................... 57 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 57 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 58 www.avoslifesciences.com
[email protected]
AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 58 Drugs in Development ........................................................ 59 R&D Overview ............................................................. 59 Cannabinoid-1 Receptor Antagonists......................... 59 Lipase Inhibitors..................................................... 59 Serotonin Agonists.................................................. 59 Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Agonists ............................. 59 Amylin Agonist ....................................................... 59 Assessment of R&D Success Rates ................................. 60 Products in the Pipeline................................................. 61 Phase III (Seven Agents)......................................... 61 Phase II (10 Agents)............................................... 62
www.avoslifesciences.com
[email protected]
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