Therapeutic Market Outlooks
Lipid Modulating Agents Publication Date: August 2007 Table of Contents Disease Etiology................................................................... 6 Primary Dyslipidemia ...................................................... 6 Secondary Dyslipidemia .................................................. 6 Epidemiology & Patient Population Estimates........................... 7 Theoretical Patient Population.......................................... 7 Addressable Patient Population ........................................ 7 Treated Patient Population .............................................. 8 Drivers of Growth ..................................................... 8 Availability of Generics......................................... 8 Access for Elderly................................................ 8 Public Awareness ................................................ 8 New Guidelines................................................... 8 Dyslipidemia Patient Population Model .............................. 9 U.S. Statins Market Model, 2004-2013 .................................. 10 Disease & Market Definitions ......................................... 10 Forecasting Methodology............................................... 10 Market Segmentation.................................................... 10 Market Revenue Forecasts............................................. 11 AVOS Physician Panel Results .............................................. 15 Physician Treatment Patterns......................................... 15 Patient Compliance ....................................................... 16 Drivers of Non-Compliance ...................................... 16 Asymptomatic Prevention .................................. 16 Cost ................................................................ 16 Natural Treatment ............................................ 16 Side Effects...................................................... 16 Lack of Education ............................................. 16 Physician Product Selection Criteria ................................ 17 Insurance Coverage ................................................ 17 Sample Availability.................................................. 17 Efficacy ................................................................. 17
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Marketing Efforts .................................................... 17 Physician Product Ratings & Forecasts of Future Market Trends ........................................................................ 18 Market Overview ................................................................ 20 Leading Products.......................................................... 20 Market History ............................................................. 20 Current Market Environment.......................................... 21 Future OTC Switch Unlikely ........................................... 22 Product Profiles Lipitor ......................................................................... 23 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 23 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 24 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 24 Zetia/Vytorin................................................................ 25 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 25 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 26 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 26 Product History ...................................................... 27 Crestor........................................................................ 28 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 28 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 29 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 29 Crestor Safety Controversy ...................................... 30 Zocor .......................................................................... 31 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 31 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 32 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 32 Pravachol .................................................................... 33 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 33 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 33 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 34 Lescol/Lescol XL ........................................................... 35 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 35 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 35 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 35 Tricor.......................................................................... 36 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 37 www.avoslifesciences.com
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Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 37 Product History ...................................................... 37 Patent Challenges and Reform ................................. 37 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 37 Niaspan/Advicor ........................................................... 38 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 38 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 39 Product History ...................................................... 39 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 39 Caduet ........................................................................ 40 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 40 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 41 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 41 Atorvastatin ................................................................. 42 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 42 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 43 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 43 MK-0524A/MK-0524B .................................................... 44 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 44 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 45 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 45 Simcor ........................................................................ 46 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 46 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 46 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 47 ABT-335/Crestor + ABT-335 .......................................... 48 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 48 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 49 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 49 TAK-475...................................................................... 50 U.S. Perspective ..................................................... 50 Worldwide Perspective ............................................ 51 AVOS Physician Panel Discussions ............................ 51 Drugs in Development ........................................................ 52 R&D Overview ............................................................. 52 ACAT Inhibitors ...................................................... 52 Squalene Synthase Inhibitors ................................... 52 www.avoslifesciences.com
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PPAR Agonists........................................................ 52 CETP Inhibitors ...................................................... 52 Assessment of R&D Success Rates ................................. 52 Products in the Pipeline................................................. 53 Phase III (11 Agents).............................................. 53 Phase II (11 Agents)............................................... 54
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