Meaning Of Forecasting.docx

Meaning of Forecasting: In preparing plans for the future, the management authority has to make some predictions about what is likely to happen in the future. It shows that the managers know something of future happenings even before things actually happen. Forecasting provides them this knowledge. Forecasting is the process of estimating the relevant events of future, based on the analysis of their past and present behaviour. The future cannot be probed unless one knows how the events have occurred in the past and how they are occurring presently. The past and present analysis of events provides the base helpful for collecting information about their future occurrence. Thus, forecasting may be defined as the process of assessing the future normally using calculations and projections that take account of the past performance, current trends, and anticipated changes in the foreseeable period ahead. Whenever the managers plan business operations and organisational set-up for the years ahead, they have to take into account the past, the present and the prevailing economic, political and social conditions. Forecasting provides a logical basis for determining in advance the nature of future business operations and the basis for managerial decisions about the material, personnel and other requirements. It is, thus, the basis of planning, when a business enterprise makes an attempt to look into the future in a systematic and concentrated way, it may discover certain aspects of its operations requiring special attention. However, it must be recognised that the process of forecasting involves an element of guesswork and the managers cannot stay satisfied and relaxed after having prepared a forecast.

The forecast will have to be constantly monitored and revised—particularly when it relates to a long- term period. The managers should try to reduce the element of guesswork in preparing forecasts by collecting the relevant data using the scientific techniques of analysis and inference. On the basis of the definition, the following features of forecasting can be identified: 1. Forecasting relates to future events. 2. Forecasting is needed for planning process because it devises the future course of action. 3. It defines the probability of happening of future events. Therefore, the happening of future events can be precise only to a certain extent. 4. Forecasting is made by analysing the past and present factors which are relevant for the functioning of an organisation. 5. The analysis of various factors may require the use of statistical and mathematical tools and techniques. Role of Forecasting: Since planning involves the future, no usable plan can be made unless the manager is able to take all possible future events into account. This explains why forecasting is a critical element in the planning process. In fact, every decision in the organisation is based on some sort of forecasting. It helps the managers in the following ways: 1. Basis of Planning: Forecasting is the key to planning. It generates the planning process. Planning decides the future course of action which is expected to take place in certain circumstances and conditions. Unless the managers know these conditions, they cannot go for effective planning.

Forecasting provides the knowledge of planning premises within which the managers can analyse their strengths and weaknesses and can take appropriate actions in advance before actually they are put out of market. Forecasting provides the knowledge about the nature of future conditions. 2. Promotion of Organization: The objectives of an organisation are achieved through the performance of certain activities. What activities should be performed depends on the expected outcome of these activities. Since expected outcome depends on future events and the way of performing various activities, forecasting of future events is of direct relevance in achieving an objective. 3. Facilitating Co-ordination and Control: Forecasting indirectly provides the way for effective co-ordination and control. Forecasting requires information about various factors. Information is collected from various internal and external sources. Almost all units of the organisation are involved in this process. It provides interactive opportunities for better unity and co-ordination in the planning process. Similarly, forecasting can provide relevant information for exercising control. The managers can know their weaknesses in the forecasting process and they can take suitable action to overcome these. 4. Success in Organisation: All business enterprises are characterised by risk and have to work within the ups and downs of the industry. The risk depends on the future happenings and forecasting provides help to overcome the problem of uncertainties. Though forecasting cannot check the future happenings, it provides clues about those and indicates when the alternative actions should be taken. Managers can save their business and face the unfortunate happenings if they know in advance what is going to happen.

Process of Forecasting: The following steps usually result in effective forecasting: 1. Determine the objective for which forecast is required: Managers should know the reasons why forecasts are required. If there are rapid changes in the environment, it is necessary to forecast the environmental factors. Past records of the companies provide useful framework to know how effective forecasts have been in the past in making business operations successful. Unless managers are clear of the reasons why forecasts are required to be made, the right choice of technique and also the right forecasts will not be made. Wrong forecasts lead to wrong business decisions, faulty planning and losses for business organisations. 2. Select the appropriate forecast method: Depending upon the objective for which forecast is required, managers select the appropriate forecasting technique. These techniques may be quantitative or qualitative in nature. Based on past and present response of companies to environmental variables, these techniques represent future trend or behaviour of business activities. This future behaviour is supposed to be the likely outcome of forecasting method adopted. 3. Compare the actual results: Though managers put in the best of efforts to forecast the future operations, the forecasts may still go wrong or the environmental changes may take place other than those predicted. In either case, the results or outcomes of forecasts will be different from those projected. This may require in making new forecasts or changes in plans because of changes in environmental factors. The actual results are, thus, compared with the forecasted results and deviations are detected as soon as possible so that necessary changes can be made in the forecasts or the plans. 4. Review and revise the forecasts: If the actual results happen to be as projected, these forecasts become the basis for future forecasting. If, however, actual results are different from those projected, the forecasts are reviewed and revised to ensure better outcomes in the next forecasting period.

Techniques of Forecasting:

There are various methods of forecasting. However, no method can be suggested as universally applicable. In fact, most of the forecasts are done by combining various methods. A brief discussion of the major forecasting methods is given below: 1. Historical Analogy Method: Under this method, forecast in regard to a particular situation is based on some analogous conditions elsewhere in the past. The economic situation of a country can be predicted by making comparison with the advanced countries at a particular stage through which the country is presently passing. Similarly, it has been observed that if anything is invented in some part of the world, this is adopted in other countries after a gap of a certain time. Thus, based on analogy, a general forecast can be made about the nature of events in the economic system of the country. It is often suggested that social analogies have helped in indicating the trends of changes in the norms of business behaviour in terms of life. Likewise, changes in the norms of business behaviour in terms of attitude of the workers against inequality, find similarities in various countries at various stages of the history of industrial growth. Thus, this method gives a broad indication about the future events of general nature. 2. Survey Method: Surveys can be conducted to gather information on the intentions of the concerned people. For example, information may be collected through surveys about the probable expenditure of consumers on various items. Both quantitative and qualitative information may be collected by this method.

On the basis of such surveys, demand for various products can be projected. Survey method is suitable for forecasting demand—both of existing and new products. To limit the cost and time, the survey may be restricted to a sample from the prospective consumers. 3. Opinion Poll: Opinion poll is conducted to assess the opinion of the experienced persons and experts in the particular field whose views carry a lot of weight. For example, opinion polls are very popular to predict the outcome of elections in many countries including India. Similarly, an opinion poll of the sales representatives, wholesalers or marketing experts may be helpful in formulating demand projections. If opinion polls give widely divergent views, the experts may be called for discussion and explanation of why they are holding a particular view. They may be asked to comment on the views of the others, to revise their views in the context of the opposite views, and consensus may emerge. Then, it becomes the estimate of future events. 4. Business Barometers: A barometer is used to measure the atmospheric pressure. In the same way, index numbers are used to measure the state of an economy between two or more periods. These index numbers are the device to study the trends, seasonal fluctuations, cyclical movements, and irregular fluctuations. These index numbers, when used in combination with one another, provide indications as to the direction in which the economy is proceeding. Thus, with the business activity index numbers, it becomes easy to forecast the future course of action. However, it should be kept in mind that business barometers have their own limitations and they are not sure road to success. All types of business do not follow the general trend but different index numbers have to be prepared for different activities, etc.

5. Time Series Analysis: Time series analysis involves decomposition of historical series into its various components, viz. trend, seasonal variances, cyclical variations, and random variances. When the various components of a time series are separated, the variation of a particular situation, the subject under study, can be known over the period of time and projection can be made about the future. A trend can be known over the period of time which may be true for the future also. However, time series analysis should be used as a basis for forecasting when data are available for a long period of time and tendencies disclosed by the trend and seasonal factors are fairly clear and stable. 6. Regression Analysis: Regression analysis is meant to disclose the relative movements of two or more inter-related series. It is used to estimate the changes in one variable as a result of specified changes in other variable or variables. In economic and business situations, a number of factors affect a business activity simultaneously. Regression analysis helps in isolating the effects of such factors to a great extent. For example, if we know that there is a positive relationship between advertising expenditure and volume of sales or between sales and profit, it is possible to have estimate of the sales on the basis of advertising, or of the profit on the basis of projected sales, provided other things remain the same. 7. Input-Output Analysis: According to this method, a forecast of output is based on given input if relationship between input and output is known. Similarly, input requirement can be forecast on the basis of final output with a given input-output relationship. The basis of this technique is that the various sectors of economy are interrelated and such inter-relationships are well-established.

For example, coal requirement of the country can be predicted on the basis of its usage rate in various sectors like industry, transport, household, etc. and how the various sectors behave in future. This technique yields sector-wise forecasts and is extensively used in forecasting business events as the data required for its application are easily obtained. Choice of Forecasting Methods: In practice, no single technique of forecast can apply to make predictions. A combination of different techniques is followed by the forecasters, where positive attributes of all the techniques are unified into a single forecast. In a joint opinion method to make forecasts, all those concerned with the problem area jointly make judgments and forecasts are made through consensus of opinion. The best forecasting technique is a blend of statistical and industry/group/ industry judgment: Forecasting should be: 1. Accurate: The forecast method should be accurate in terms of predicting results. No method can, however, be 100 per cent accurate. A range of deviations is, therefore, accepted by the forecasters. A range of 5 to 10 per cent is usually accepted by forecasters depending upon the nature of product, market, industry and the forecast. 2. Flexible: Forecasting method should be flexible. It should change according to changing environmental conditions. Deviations in actual implementation become the basis of adopting another method of forecasting to make predictions. 3. Efficient: Every forecasting method has benefits and costs. Forecasts should adopt a method whose benefits are more than the costs to achieve optimum results. 4. Timeliness: Forecasts should provide timely information of future behaviour of consumers, sales and industry trends. If forecasts exceed the time for actual sales in the market, they will become inefficient forecasts as costs would exceed the expected revenues. Though they should not relate to very near future, they should cover a period long enough to make rational forecasts.

5. Availability of information and personnel: Good forecasts depend upon reliable, timely, accurate and comprehensive information about future. Lack of information will lead to wrong estimates and wrong forecasts. Besides availability of information, people who use this information should also be qualified to process the formation to market rational forecasts. Quality information will not generate quality forecasts if people do not have knowledge to process that information. People, therefore, have to be trained to make best use of information to make accurate forecasts. Techniques of Forecasting: There are a number of techniques through which forecasts can be made. No technique can universally apply in similar business situations. These techniques, singly or in combination, are used depending upon the business situations when they have to be used. The techniques of forecasting generally fall into two categories: 1. Quantitative Forecasting: It applies mathematical models to past and present information to predict future outcomes. These techniques are used to have access to hard or quantifiable data. Some of the quantitative techniques are time series analysis, regression models and econometric models. 2. Qualitative Forecasting: It applies when data are not available or very little data are available. Managers use judgement, intuition, knowledge and skill to make effective forecasts. Some of the qualitative techniques are jury of executive opinion method, sales force composite method and users’ expectation method. These techniques are used for: 1. External environmental forecasting and 2. Internal environmental forecasting External Environmental Forecasting: No firm, large or small, over a period of time, remains in a static condition. It experiences upward or downward swing. Robert C. Turner, an economist, states, “Business forecasting is unavoidable. Every business decision involves a forecast, implicit or explicit, because every business decision pertains to the future. Although business decision makers should neither

accept any forecast as infallible nor rely exclusively on it, they would be well advised to give forecasts a significant weight in their own planning.” Forecasts related to external environment are: 1. Economic forecasting, 2. Technological forecasting, 3. Forecasting regarding Government policies, and 4. Sales forecasting. Benefits of Forecasting: Forecasting has the following benefits: 1. Future oriented: ADVERTISEMENTS: It enables managers to visualize and discount future to the present. It, thus, improves the quality of planning. Planning is done for future under certain known conditions and forecasting helps in knowing these conditions. It provides knowledge of planning premises with which managers can analyse their strengths and weaknesses and take action to meet the requirements of the future market. For example, if the TV manufacturers feel that LCD or Plasma televisions will replace the traditional televisions, they should take action to either change their product mix or start manufacturing LCD/Plasma screens. Forecasting, thus, helps in utilizing resources in the best and most profitable business areas. In the fast changing technological world, businesses may find it difficult to survive if they do not forecast customers’ needs and competitors’ moves. 2. Identification of critical areas: ADVERTISEMENTS: Forecasting helps in identifying areas that need managerial attention. It saves the company from incurring losses because of bad planning or ill defined objectives. By identifying critical areas of management and forecasting the requirement of different resources like money, men, material etc., managers can formulate better objectives and policies for the organisation.

Forecasting, thus, increases organisational and managerial efficiency in terms of framing and implementing organisational plans and policies. 3. Reduces risk: Though forecasting cannot eliminate risk, it reduces it substantially by estimating the direction in which environmental factors are moving. It helps the organisation survive in the uncertain environment by providing clues about what is going to happen in future. If managers know in advance about changes in consumer preferences, they will bring required modifications in their product design in order to meet the changed expectations of the consumers. Thus, forecasting cannot stop the future changes from happening but it can prepare the organisations to face them when they occur or avoid them, if they can. 4. Coordination: Forecasting involves participation of organisational members of all departments at all levels. It helps in coordinating departmental plans of the organisation at all levels. People in all departments at all levels are actively involved in coordinating business operations with likely future changes predicted as a result of forecasting. Thus, forecasting helps in movement of all the plans in the same direction. 5. Effective management: By identifying the critical areas of functioning, managers can formulate sound objectives and policies for their organisations. This increases organisational efficiency, effectiveness in achieving the plans, better management and effective goal attainment. 6. Development of executives: Forecasting develops the mental, conceptual and analytical abilities of executives to do things in planned, systematic and scientific manner. This helps to develop management executives. Approaches to Forecasting: These are two approaches to forecasting. 1. Top-down Approach: In this approach, forecast is done at the corporate level or the strategic level. It starts with a forecast of general economic conditions. It forecasts gross national product, consumer and wholesale price index, interest rates, unemployment level, government expenditures, etc. and estimates the market potential of the product for the entire industry.

Then, it determines its current market share and forecasts success of its product in the market. This forecast is used for operational planning and budgeting the future programmes. 2. Bottom-up Approach: In this approach, middle and lower-level employees project the business operations in the coming years. For instance, they do customer survey to know what customers want to buy. Such forecasts are made by different sales people which are finally summed up to give the sales forecast. Usually a questionnaire is mailed or completed through telephonic interview with the prospective customers to make such forecasts. These forecasts are usually reliable for small period of one year.