Agenda
Global and local market in 2008 Manulife Progressive Fund
MAFPF1 Performance Update
[MAFPF1] performance in 2008
Mark Cañizares Head of Equities Manulife Vietnam Fund Management Co. Ltd.
Equity market outlook for 2009
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Global Markets in Crisis in 2008
Global economic weakness concerns by 2H08 Oil falls 73% from its peak in June/08 Wheat prices collapse 50% from March/08 peak
Global and Local markets in 2008
CRB Index drops 52% from June/08 high
Corporate events in 2008 Lehman Brothers files for Bankruptcy US government infuses AIG with USD 85 Billion Merrill Lynch is sold to Bank of America Citigroup is bailed out by the US government
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General Weakness Globally in 2008
VN Market in 2008
VN Index dropped 66%
77% down from the peak in March 16/07
Market capitalization fell to USD 10 Bil
Market cap to GDP at 10%, Asia’s smallest
Liquidity conditions worsened Daily Value Traded dropped to USD 25 Mil by 4Q (USD 65 Mil in 1Q08)
2008 Performance in USD MSCI Asia Ex-Japan : -53.31% US S&P 500 : -36.91% UK FTSE 100 : -49.43% Japan Nikkei 225 : -27.53%
Average daily value turnover CY08: USD 39 Mil (CY07: 61 Mil USD)
MSCI Asia Ex-Japan: -54%
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Daily equity turnover declined indicating lack of interest
VN Index: Key Events in 2008 1000
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SBV begins raising rates
Average Daily Stock Turnover in 2008*
900
Inflation Peaks at 28%
Inflation rises to 15.7%
800 700
160 140
Base rate peaks at 14%
600
Base rate at 8.5%, 450bps cut
SBV starts to cut rates
500
120 100 80
400 Trading limits frozen +/-1%
300 200
Trading limits widened +/-3%
100
60
Trading limits restored
40 20 0
0 19-De c
7-N ov
5-De c
2 1-N ov
24 -O ct
10 -O ct
29-Au g
26-S ep
12-S ep
15-Au g
4 -Jul
1-Au g
18 -Jul
6-Jun
20-Jun
9-M a y
25-A pr
23-M a y
11-A pr
29-Feb
28-M ar
14-M ar
1-Feb
15-Feb
4 -Ja n
18-Ja n
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: Bloomberg * HoSE and HaSTC, USD Millions
Source: Bloomberg, MVFM
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MAFPF1 Performance Summary MAFPF1 NAV movement vs. VN Index 1.2 1 0.8 0.6
Manulife Progressive Fund [MAFPF1] 2008 Performance
0.4
VNI MA F
0.2
2/5/2009
1/5/2009
12/5/2008
11/5/2008
9/5/2008
10/5/2008
8/5/2008
7/5/2008
6/5/2008
5/5/2008
4/5/2008
3/5/2008
2/5/2008
1/5/2008
12/5/2007
11/5/2007
10/5/2007
0
Source: Bloomberg, MVFM data
VN Index -66% 5% -13% -46%
Full Year 2008** 1-mo* 3-mo* 6-mo*
MAFPF1 -53% 8% -8% -36%
Diff (% pts) 13% 3% 5% 10%
S o urce: M V FM , B lo o mb erg * NA V as o f 19 -M ar-0 9 **N A V C hang e fro m 2 8 /Dec/0 8 vs 2 /Jan/0 9
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Top 5 Holdings in 2008
MAFPF1 Sector Positioning in 2008
Top 5 Holdings Performance in 2008
35 30 25
MFC
20
VN Index
VNM VSH DHG DPM PVD VN Index
15 10 5
Key Portfolio Attributes
T e c h no lo gy
T e le c o m m u n ic a tio ns
C a s h/F ix e d Inte r es t
O il & G as
H e a lth C a re
B a s ic M ate r ia ls
U tilities
In d u s tr ia ls
F in an c ia ls
C on s u m e r G o o ds
0
Rev Growth NI Growth 23.5% 27.6% 30.7% 44.4% 19.2% 6.9% 71.4% 3.7% 35.8% 62.1% 30.0% 8.0%
ROE 27.85% 17.81% 19.36% 30.32% 46.30% 16%
P/E Price Perf 12 -48% 10 -36% 15 -48% 10 -51% 12 -29% 7 -66%
S o urce: M V FM Estimates; B lo o mb erg , Y ear End Pos itio ns as o f December 3 1/2 0 08
Key Qualities: Earnings defensive Majority of earnings stream from core businesses Stable growth profile
Source: Bloomberg, MVFM data as of Dec 31/2008
Defensive Minimal exposure to financials 11
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Key sectors/Thematics in 2008 Oil, steel Invested in the first half to take advantage of high oil prices and reduced exposure going into 4Q as price corrections set in
Equity Market Outlook
Bonds 5 month holding period for a VGB (sold in 4Q) to take advantage of abnormal yields. (Net gain +30%) Defensives and Non-Cyclicals Persistent theme throughout 2008 given global and local macro concerns
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Corporate Earnings: Cleaner
Economy: Challenging but still growing Key Macroeconomic Data 2005 8.4 9.7 22.5 15.7
2006 8.2 9.9 22.1 33.4
2007 8.5 23 22.7 32.6
2008A 6.23 22.2 29.5 28.3
2009F* 4.75 9.4 -5.2 -7.9
Industrial production Consumer prices (yoy)
25.5 8.3
16 6.6
16.7 12.6
14.6 19.8
14.2 9.6
Current account (% GDP) Budget balance (% GDP)
0.4 -4.9
0.5 -5
10 -5
-13.5 -4.4
-8.5 -6.8
GDP Fixed investment Exports - Goods Imports - Goods
Corporate Earnings Outlook Earnings growth Core Business % of Earnings
Key Sectors with Visible earnings expansion
2008 -50% to +25% <50%
2009 -30% to +10% >75%
Agri-Fertilizers Utilities Consumer-Non Cycl Exports - Seafood Pharmaceuticals
Utilities Consumer-Non Cycl Exports - Seafood Pharmaceuticals
Telecoms*
VND/USD
15,866
16,006
16,096
16,977
18,000
Oil & Gas Services So urce: M V FM Est imat es; A g greg at ed Lo cal B roker Es timat es
Short-term lending rate (%) 5-year interest rate (%)*
7.8 8.8
7.8 8.3
8.3 8.7
17.0 9.0
2010 0% to +10% >75%
2011 +10% >75%
Agri-Fertilizers Utilities Consumer-Non Cycl Exports - Seafood Pharmaceuticals Banks Properties Telecoms*
Agri-Fertilizers Utilities Consumer-Non Cycl Exports - Seafood Pharmaceuticals Banks Properties Telecoms* Oil & Gas Services
*Current ly und er rep resent ed
7.5 7.5
* Fo recas ts ag g reg ated fro m GS O, EIU, A DB , IM F, W o rld B ank, HS B C, B M I, CLSA as o f M arch 2 0 0 9
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MAFPF1: Still positioned to take advantage of the recovery
Valuations: Pointing to an upside
At least a 15% DCF upside from current levels
Economy to remain robust One of the four countries in Asia to have positive
Despite a Cost of Equity assumption of 18%
GDP growth in 2009* Economic growth underpinned by Industrialization
P/E multiples have collapsed to 5x-10x
WTO membership to continue increasing integration with global economy
Trailing VN Index PE is 9.8x
Demographics remain very favorable
Forward 2009 PE: 11.5x*, at par with most SEA markets
Domestic consumption remains robust
*Assuming 15% earnings decline
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*Economic Intelligence Unit, February report
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MAFPF1: Still well-positioned to take advantage of the recovery
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MAFPF1: Still well-positioned to take advantage of the recovery
Equity markets will reflect strong macro fundamentals
Markets will continue to be a leading economic
MAFPF1 continues to have high exposure to the equity market Key tilts remain in the sectors where earnings is
indicator
of high quality, visible, and sustainable
Quality of corporate earnings will increase as companies go back to core businesses
Valuations to expand once confidence on corporate returns
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Robust risk control systems ensure that MAFPF1 doesn’t take unnecessary risks for investors
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MAFPF1 Month-to-date return Manulife Progressive Fund Winner of Asia Asset Management 2008 'Best of the Best' award for Most Innovative Product (Vietnam)
Source: Bloomberg Attribution of ex-cash returns from the period Feb 27/09 – March 25/09
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DISCLAIMER
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Too much cash in a rallying market
This document does not constitute or form part of an offer to sell or an invitation to purchase or subscribe for shares or other securities, nor may it or any part of it, nor the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating thereto. The information contained herein is for background purposes only, has not been verified and is subject to amendment, revision and updating. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein and no reliance should be placed upon it. Investment involves risk. Past performance is no guide to future performance. Please refer to the relevant MAFPF1 Prospectus for further details" Source: Screen grab from http://www.hsc.com.vn, Mar/23/2009
The performance data contained within this material represents past performance, which does not guarantee future results. The return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate, so that shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than the original cost. Due to market volatility, the fund’s current performance may be higher or lower and is subject to substantial changes
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• Inability to buy back is persistent in VN – Not only in the small caps but even in blue chips
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Comparative 2008 NAV performance amongst equity funds
MAFPF1 2008 Portfolio Holdings
Vietnam Emerging Equity Fund (LCFR03)
-70.7
PXP Vietnam Fund (LCFR03)
-70.5
Vietnam Enterprise Inv'ts Ltd (LCFR03)
-61.9
Vietnam Growth Fund (LCFR03)
-61.4
JF Vietnam Opportunities Fund
-61.3
Vietnam Holding (VNHq.L)
-60.6
Blackhorse Enhanced Vietnam Inc
-59.9
Vietnam Dragon Fund (LCFR03)
-59.8
Vietnam Lotus Fund (LCFR03)
-59.5
DWS Vietnam Fund (LCFR03)
-53.8
Indochina Capital Vietnam Holdings (IDCH.L)
-52.8
Manulife Progressive Fund (MAFPF1.HM)*
-52.0
VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Ltd (VOF.L)
-46.7
Vietnam Emerging Market Fund
-44.2
Vietnam Azalea Fund
-41.5
Positions as of December 31, 2008 Ticker Name ACB Asia Commercial Bank HDC Ba Ria - Vung Tau House Deve ABT Bentre Aqua Product Import A BMC Binh Dinh Minerals Jsc SC5 Construction Jsc No 5 FPT Fpt Corp ACL Cuulong Fish Jsc DPR Dong Phu Rubber Jsc PVC Drilling Mud Jsc GMD Gemadept Corp DHG Dhg Pharmaceutical Jsc CII Hcm City Infrastructure Inv HBC Hoa Binh Construction And Re HRC Hoa Binh Rubber Jsc HPG Hoa Phat Group Jsc
Vietnam Equity Holding (/3MS.DE)
-27.4
Source: MVFM
Fund Name (Reuters Code)
2008 NAV performance (%)
Ticker IMP KDC PVD DPM PPC REE STB SZL ITA TDH TAC VCB VNM VSH
Name Imexpharm Pharmaceutical Jsc Kinhdo Corp Petrovietnam Drilling And We Petrovietnam Fert & Chemical Pha Lai Thermal Power Jsc Refrigeration Electrical Eng Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial Sonadezi Long Thanh Sharehol Tan Tao Investment Industry Thu Duc Housing Development Tuong An Vegetable Oil Jsc Vietcombank Viet Nam Dairy Products Jsc Vinh Son - Song Hinh Hydropo
*MAFPF1 data (Jan/4/08 vs Jan9/09 official NAVPS) Source: Bloomberg; LCF Rothschild Emerging Market Funds Research Weekly Parity Sheet, Mar16/09
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