LPG MARKET ANALYSIS: To meet the growing demand, the country’s dependence om imported energy products has increased by 5 percent during the last 4 years. The Pakistan energy book year 2008, released by Hydro Carbon Development Institute, showed that the shared on imported energy has risen to 35 percent in 2008 against 30 percent in 2004. The share of LPG in energy consumption has only 1.5 percent. The demand of LPG has increased by 14 percent in the last six years. Since the local production of LPG has progressed at the rate of just 9 percent, therefore arose the need to enhance imports to meet the domestic requirements. Source
02~03
03~04
04~05
05~06
06~07
07~08
149,657
154,903
192,533
344,875
370,804
363,03 6
18,000
35,000
40,492
24,779
65,590
23,765
372,701
415,302
452,508
582,628
648,572
601,59 2
4.24%
11.43%
8.96%
28.76%
11.32%
-7.24%
02~03
03~04
04~05
05~06
06~07
07~08
262,973
280,725
313,054
384,603
405,683
371,37 1
Commercial
52,493
56,506
103,231
164,418
190,721
192,60 4
Others
10,596
14,345
29,398
11,993
9,039
326,062
351,576
578,419
608,397
573,01 4
Field Plants Imports Total Annual Growth Rate (%)
LPG Consumption by Sector: Sector Domestic
Total
416,285
LPG Demand Projection: Year
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Potential Demand
1,181
1,275
1,332
1,359
1,482
Market Consumptio n
656
700
671
971
1,080
Demand in Thousand Ton
LPG – A BETTER FUEL THAN CNG LPG Producers are suggesting the government to stop issuing CNG License for compresses natural gas (CNG) filling stations and instead LPG in domestic , commercial and automobile market. Although government has slowed down this process, there is a need to completely ban CNG license as natural gas reserves were depleting. Since the import of natural gas I very expensive and is not viable where as LPG can be imported within a short span of time. Instead of supplying natural gas to CNG stations, the government is planning to ensure the gas is provided to industrial sector. Which are generating revenues and producing export surplus for the country. Proving cheaper fuel will enable industries to complete international markets and boost their exports, resulting in generating more revenue for the country. In last winter, many industries had to shut down their plants due to nonsupply of natural gas. This non-supply of natural gas has resulted in closure of many power plants and industries. LPG and CNG are both viable fuels with varying levels of infrastructure. Following chart is showing the comparison between CNG and LPG because of which energy consultants are expecting more rapid growth of LPG sector as compared to CNG and now OGRA is on process of finalizing the commercial part of LPG atuo station.
Parameter s Emissions
CNG Average 70% lesser petrol/diesel
LPG Average 90% lesser than
petrol/diesel Power Volume of Fuel Tank Conversion Cost Safety
Dispensing
Reduces by about 20% as gas carburetors are often used Large tanks average 6 times that of petrol/diesel for same mileage: additional weight and eats up boot space Taxi/Car: PKR 25,000 ~ 45, 000 200 ~ 245 bar, high pressure can be a safety concern Requires special equipment. A compressor alone cost PKR 20 Million and a complete station could cost up to 30 Million
Almost same as petrol/diesel vehicles Same as petrol/diesel Taxi/Car: PKR 6,000 ~ 14, 000 5-7 bar, comparable to conventional fuel Average LPG station cost PKR 4.5 Million
Distribution & Transportatio n
Dependent on pipe line networks
Easily transported by road tanker equipment with PTO like liquid fuel
Network Development
Heavily dependent on SN pipe line networks, lead time is high
Easy to develop, lead time is 5-6 months
Initial investment in infrastructure
Average USD 250,000 and upwards for just a dispensing station with compressor of suitable capacity
Average USD 65, 000
Global Experience
5.0 Million Vehicles
10.0 Million Vehicles