Lcapopularity Of Hybrid Vehicles

Life Cycle Analysis and Popularity of Hybrid Vehicles: Implications to Urban Environmental Planning using Smart Growth Chuck Hostovsky, PhD, MCIP, RPP JGE331 Nov. 9, 2009 Independent Researcher Sessional Lecturer 2 – University of Toronto Originally presented at the Canadian Association of Geographers conference, Oct. 2009

Part 1 – Hybrid Cars, Green-washing and Life Cycle Analysis

Lecture Objectives • Review the growing popularity of hybrid vehicles • Examine the use of a rational scientific model of

environment and resource management decision-making – “Life Cycle Analysis” (LCA) • Overview the relationship between LCA and green-washing • Determine if hybrid vehicle advantage the environment • Speculate about the impact of hybrid vehicles on “smart growth” urban planning paradigms – including travel demand management (TDM) and transit oriented development (TOD)

• Review a TOD case study with Dr. Hostovsky’s involvement

Hypothesis •

Increased popularity of hybrids is largely based on an image of environmental friendliness resulting from deep corporate green-washing, rather than empirical evidence of environmental superiority. As a result hybrid owners are increasing their VMT due to the conservation rebound effect. • Furthermore, some governments are providing economic incentives, allowing SOV in HOV lanes, and creating other initiatives to promote hybrids that may be counterproductive to transportation demand management (TDM) and transitoriented development (TOD).

Old paradigm - adjust roads and vehicles, not driver behavior (VTPI) New - improve system diversity and efficiency Generate alternatives to single occupancy commuter travel (get people out of their cars)

Research questions • Are hybrids environmentally superior to conventional • • • • •

internal combustion engine motor vehicles? Is hybrid advertising green-washing? Do hybrid owners become environmentally “smug”? Is there evidence of the conservation rebound effect exhibited by hybrid owners? What is the relationship between hybrid ownership and TDM? In the long run, will increased popularity of hybrid and AEV affect the move toward TOD in urban planning (smart growth) due to perceived improved freeway LOS?

Methods • Literature search • Thematic analysis of hybrid commercials and

advertising • Focus group facilitation

– Metronuaghts Transit “Un-conference”, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Session Facilitator: Hybrid and Green Vehicles: Implications for Transit Oriented Development, May 3, 2008. – Near future: arranging focus groups with a Toronto and Burlington Toyota dealers (suburban versus city hybrid owners)

Trend - sales increasing +300% Canada 2004 – 2006 Still less than 5% market US dropped 45.5% yearon-year in April 2009 due to recession

ttp://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/05/april-hybrid-sales-20090504.html#mo

De Rigueur Becoming de rigueur to own a hybrid for celebrities and politicians Lifestyle Magazine, 2007

Juxtapose Jen’s new 10,000 sq. ft. estate OK Magazine 2008

What the presidential candidates drive www.greendaily.com/2008/01/19/what-the-presidentialcandidates-drive/ • •

Associated Press queried the candidates about what cars they drive Republicans: –

– – –

•

Mike Huckabee : A 2007 Chevy Tahoe as their family's main car and his personal car is a Chevrolet Silverado truck (16 mpg and 12 mpg). John McCain: His wife drives a Lexus, he drives a Cadillac and his daughter drives a hybrid. Mitt Romney: Romney drives a Mustang convertible and a Chevy pickup; his wife drives a Cadillac crossover. Rudy Guiliani: Doesn't own a car.

Democrats: – – –

Barack Obama: Chrysler 300C, but later bought a Ford Escape SUV hybrid. John Edwards: An Escape hybrid Hillary Clinton: Mercury Mariner hybrid.

http://www.obamas300c.com/

Government initiatives – counter productive to TDM• • Hybrids allowed in

HOV lanes in some jurisdictions • Preferred parking (also Ikea) • Canada eco-Auto rebate – $2,000 for compact hybrids – $1,000 for subcompacts – $1,000 for full-sized flex-fuel (ethanol)

Stimulates induced (latent) travel demand • reduce transit use, car-pooling, trip combining & TDM strategies

Ontario MTO initiative: “Ecolicense” plates… Aug. 8 2007 press release • Green vehicle program that will rate cars, light trucks and commercial vehicles using environmental criteria… green vehicles will be recognized with an Eco-license

plate for HOV lanes

Life cycle impacts of automobiles

http://www.ec.gc.ca/soer-ree/English/products/factsheets/93-1.cfm

What is LCA? • Life Cycle Assessment is an objective

process to evaluate the environmental impacts associated with a product, process, or activity by identifying energy and materials (resources) used and wastes released to the environment, and to evaluate and implement opportunities to affect environmental improvements. •

(Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry SETAC, 1990)

Why is LCA Important to Consumers? 1. LCA has the potential to assist individuals at a daily

micro-level to make informed consumer choices that reduce environmental impacts 2. Research (e.g. Douglas Lober) indicates that there is greater opportunity for environmental conservation at the point of purchase rather than in the home – Purchase: resource conservation, waste reduction – Home: recycling

LCA Goal & Objectives • Primary goal is to choose the best product,

process, or service with the least effect on human health and the environment, secondary objectives include:

– To prove if one product is environmentally superior to competitive products. – To identify stages within the life cycle of a product where a reduction in resource use and emissions might be achieved. – To establish a baseline of information on a product’s overall resource use, energy consumption, and environmental loadings. – To help guide the development of new products, processes, or activities toward a net reduction of resource requirements and emissions. US EPA

LCA 101 Cradle-to-grave approach 1. compiling an inventory of relevant energy and

material inputs and environmental releases; 2. evaluating the potential environmental impacts associated with identified inputs and releases; 3. interpreting the results to help you make a more informed decision. 4. Create marketing and eco-labels that present the results of the LCA so that consumers can make an informed choice (source - US EPA)

Are hybrids “green”? • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tq4nrmnqY9o • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XblJq4iVT9g • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Mlffr3e5P4

• MacLean, Heather L. and Lester B. Lave. 2003. “Life Cycle

Assessment of Automobile/Fuel Options.” Environ. Sci. Technol., 2003, 37 (23), 5445-5452•

– Did not compare conventional to alternatives – Only looked at use phase – Pointed out one major LCA – Ford Taurus, 73% CO2 from use phase

“Dust to Dust” LCA 2008 • CNW Marketing Research Inc. has conducted the world's

most comprehensive analysis of the "life cycle" energy requirements of more than 100 makes and models of cars and trucks

• 4,000 "data points" for each car – “cradle to grave” – – – – – –

energy consumed in research and development energy consumed in junkyard disposal energy needed to produce parts greenhouse gas emissions Fuel mileage Vehicle lifespan

Hybrids • CNW credited Prius with only half

its 200,000 lifetime miles – poor battery life, reduced use • hybrids fare poorly because of increased complexity

• hybrids fare poorly because of increased

complexity

– Batteries - Toyota buys 1,000 tonnes of nickel a year from Ontario (mined and smelted in Sudbury). This nickel gets shipped to Wales for refining, then to China, for further processing, and then to Toyota's battery plant in Tokyo - a 10,000-mile trip, mostly by petrol powered container ships and diesel-powered locomotives

CNW Top 18 most energy efficient vehicles over their life cycle (normalized by $) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18.

SMART Ion Focus Cavalier Wrangler xB Aveo xA Sunfire Corolla Elantra Accent tC Fit Spectra Sentra Cobalt Mazda 3

Dr. Chuck’s Mazda 3 full of haz waste

$0.583 $0.621 $0.621 $0.655 $0.656 $0.683 $0.693 $0.713 $0.732 $0.748 $0.755 $0.792 $0.792 $0.799 $0.801 $0.862 $0.872 $0.876

Why the 4WD Jeep with 3.8L V6? -Less energy to manufacture, longer km lifespan, easier to recycle

CNW Hybrid energy efficiency over their lifetime: • 1. Honda Insight ($2.94 per mile) – 5 x greater than Mercedes Smart • 2. Ford Escape Hybrid ($3.18 per mile) • 3. Honda Civic Hybrid ($3.24 per mile) • 4. Toyota Prius ($3.25 per mile) • 5. Honda Accord Hybrid ($3.30 per mile) • Critics: Hybridcars.com •

http://www.hybridcars.com/environment-stories/dust-to-dust-energy-costs.html

Sucking on death analogy… mild/light cigarettes & hybrid cars

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZZ_Tor33Ms&feature=related

Green-washing: Hostovsky • “Green-washing is a term derived from

whitewashing by environmentalists who claim that some corporations want to present an environmentally responsible public image by misleading consumers regarding their environmental practices or the benefits of their products or services” – In press - Hostovsky, C. 2009. “Green-washing”, in Paul  Robbins, Juliana R. Mansvelt, J. Geoffrey Golson (eds.). The Green Series: Toward a Sustainable Environment, Volume I: Green Consumerism. SAGE.

Green-washing: Davidson • “One important characteristic of green-

washing is the suggestive and manipulative use of information. A poor record of environmental performance itself is not described as greenwashing, only a false representation of a poor performance as environmentally friendly is.” – In press – Davidson, Connie. 2009. “Green-Washing”, in Paul  Robbins, Juliana R. Mansvelt, J. Geoffrey Golson (eds.). The Green Series: Toward a Sustainable Environment, Volume II: Green Politics. SAGE.

• http://www.terrachoice.com/ • SELF-DECLARED LABEL AUDIT • study released Nov. 19-2007 by Terrachoice Environmental

Marketing randomly surveyed 1,018 common consumer products in Canada and the USA ranging from toothpaste to caulking to shampoo to printers, and found that 99% were guilty of some form of “greenwashing.”

• http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/11/greenwash_watch_7.php

Hybrid TV Commercials online, March 2009 • Qualitative, thematic analysis, using grounded theory • Sample site – www.Youtube.com • English, not other languages (appear to be entirely

different commercials) • 19 commercials: – – – –

Toyota = 9 Honda = 5 Ford = 4 GM = 1

• Examined dominant images, themes, and slogans

(catch phrases) used

Commercial analysis results •

58% (n=11) dominant images involved the hybrid set in nature: – Deep woods common, mountains, glaciers and valleys – Biodiversity, species at risk, rich plant life – 26% (n=5) subset has a strong ecological restoration thematic • Seed planted grows into a tree bearing hybrids as fruit that fall to the ground and start to drive • Flowers follow the car and the city greens • North America becomes green from space • Everything the hybrid passes on the road transforms to green • Seedlings/flowers emerging through the asphalt

•

Slogans: many e.g. “Kermit the Frog saying “its easy being green” – Most outrageous: “harmony between man, nature and machine”

• • •

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tq4nrmnqY9o http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XblJq4iVT9g http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Mlffr3e5P4

Other themes • 26% (5) Transformative technology – Images of da Vinci, hybrid engines, other transportation modes – Slogans: • “One small step on the accelerator, one giant leap for mankind” • “Creating new alternatives… Ones that won’t change the way we live, but rather the impact our lives have on the environment around us”

• 16% (n=3) no environmental theme – appeal to the vehicles

utility as a hatch-back or to fule mileage

– Images of young adults loading their cars, parking in the city, everyday driving – Slogans: • “The hybrid for everyone is here” • “most fuel efficient car in its class”

Conservation Rebound Effect – The consumer chooses to use more of the resource (increase demand) instead of realizing the energy/environmental savings. – e.g. a person with a more efficient home heater may chose to raise the setting on the thermostat or a person driving a more efficient car may drive more

Conservation Rebound Effect? DEVICE

SIZE OF REBOUND

NUMBER OF STUDIES

Residential Lighting

5-12%

4

Home Appliances 0%

2

Automobiles 10-30% Greening, L.A. Energy efficiency and consumption23 - the rebound effect - a survey, Energy Policy (2000) 28: 389-401 Small & Van Dender (UC Energy Institute: Policy & Economics."The Effect of Improved Fuel Economy on Vehicle Miles Traveled: Estimating the Rebound Effect Using U.S. State Data, 1966-2001 • short- and long-run rebound effect 4.7% and 22.0%

Very little research on CRE • de Haan, Peter, Mueller, Michel G.; Peters, Anja. 2006. “Does

the hybrid Toyota Prius lead to rebound effects? Analysis of size and number of cars previously owned by Swiss Prius buyers” ; Ecological Economics, 58, 3, 592-605. – Acknowledged Greening’s 2000 survey – surveyed 367 buyers of the Toyota Prius 2 in Switzerland

• Of cars replaced, CO2 emissions dropped 210 g/km to 104 g • Conservation rebound effect – 3 types? – vehicle size did not increase – average household vehicle ownership remained stable – However - unable to determine if hybrid drivers will in the future drive more

Eco-Smugness noted in the media • July 15, 2007, San Francisco Chronicle: “Oh, so pious, Prius

drivers/Smugness drifts over the warming Earth -- is that a bad thing?” by Vicki Haddock

– “The firm's (CNW) research concluded that more customers pick the Prius over alternatives like the hybrid version of the Honda Civic precisely because the Prius is exclusively -- and identifiably -- a hybrid. While just 36 percent cited fuel economy as a prime motivator for buying a Prius, 57 percent said their main reason was that "it makes a statement about me." What's more, in focus groups, many Prius buyers admit expecting acclaim from friends and co-workers for making such a socially responsible, planet-saving purchase. But the satisfaction of some eco-drivers risks swelling to selfrighteousness -- like the Prius driver coasting down Highway 101 in Marin County last week with the bumper sticker: "How many lives to the gallon do you get?"

Eco-Smugness? • Reid R. Heffner, Kenneth S. Kurani, Thomas S.

Turrentine. 2007. “Symbolism in California’s early market for hybrid electric vehicles.” Transportation Research D, 12, pp. 396–413.

– “Many households acknowledged purchasing their HEVs as a response to environmental concerns. However, most had only a basic understanding of environmental issues or the ecological benefits of HEVs. Rather than buying their HEVs with measurable environmental goals in mind, most of the individuals in this study bought a symbol of preserving the environment that they could incorporate into a narrative of who they are, or who http://vodpod.com/watch/200728-southpark-hybrid they wish to be.”

Focus Group - Hybrid Vehicles and Green Washing • Metronuaghts May 3, 2008 • Bias – hard core transit advocates – General suspicion of hybrid marketing – competition with transit – people drive cars as a status symbol, thus where do hybrid cars, Smart cars, ethonol cars, electric cars fit in? • 2 future focus groups – ` for signs of the CRE – Suburban – attitudes toward transit (bus only system) Level of Service • do they feel no alternatives to hybrids living in auto-dependant suburbia?

– City - Attitudes toward transit (TTC – LRT, subway) Level of Service and changes in transit patronage

Preliminary research conclusions • No empirical LCA based evidence that hybrids are more • • • •

•

environmentally efficient Hybrid commercials exhibit a strong tendency towards green-washing Evidence of eco-smugness, likely as a result of deep corporate green-washing – may dissuade TDM Governments and business appear to be reacting to this popularity with misguided programs, subsidies and policies Much more research is required, especially in terms of how hybrids effect induced travel demand, and perceived transit LOS and freeway LOS (environmental performance as a measure of effectiveness) Transit advocates are suspicious of hybrid popularity and the potential effect on TDM and TOD (i.e. “Smart Growth”)

Part 2: Transportation and Smart Growth

Travel Demand Management Transit Oriented Development

Lecture objectives • Introduce positive and proactive smart growth

or “New Urbanist” choices for urban design to reduce sprawl • Examine how we can reduce driving (and CO2) through New Urbanism and Smart Growth • Review a “transit oriented development” approach presently being taken in Mississauga and Brampton, Ontario

Benton-Short, L. and Short, J. 2007. Cities and Nature, p. 225, 226. • Smart growth stresses mixed land uses and compact design

that create high densities with lower environmental impact… – Mix land uses – Design more compact buildings – Construct walkable communities – Create a sense of place – Preserve open space – Direct development towards existing communities (i.e. intensification, infill) – Provide a variety of transport choices

• “Smart Growth argues the remedy for sprawl is to create

housing development dense enough to encourage public transportation and reduce the need for the automobile”

Get out of my car and into my train •

Freedom of mobility afforded by the automobile of a cornerstone of American culture

•

Billy Ocean – get out of my dreams and into my car - 1980’s music video expresses our suburban auto culture

•

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvarxGzIU3M

•

The Pussycat Dolls performing Jai Ho – filmed in train station http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrVlBrooxcM Original version from Slumdog Millionaire by Sukhwinder Singh Transit Usage - National and Rahman Geographic Society's 2009 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v =nikw8HG8J8I Greendex report.

• •

• The problem – Pod Zoning • 6 decades of automobile dependant urban planning

•Source – Howard Kunstler

www.emsb.qc.ca/laurenhill/science/noxsox.htm

Replanning Surburbia: New Urbanists • Andres Duany & Elizabeth

Plater Zyberk •

http://www.dpz.com/projects.htm

Goal – design communities to reducing driving and promote walking & biking

• Seaside, Florida - first new

urbanist town – Andres Duany

• 1981 on 80 acres • became internationally famous for

its architecture and the walkability of its streets and public spaces • Seaside proved that developments that function like traditional towns could be built in the postmodern era

Truman Show 1998 – Jim Carey 3 Academy Award nominations 3 Golden Globe wins Movie filmed in Seaside Florida http:// www.youtube.com/watch?v =O0rHH6LQdpI http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOQ80x-_S54 http:// www.youtube.com/watch?v =GOHFd8ieZeU

Duany/Plater-Zyberk 13 Design Elements • 1) The neighborhood has a

discernible center. This is often a square or a green and sometimes a busy or memorable street corner, plus transit stop

• 2) Most of the dwellings are

within a five-minute walk of the center, an average of roughly 2,000 feet.

• 3) There are a variety of

dwelling types — usually houses, rowhouses and apartments — so that younger and older people, singles and families, the poor and the wealthy may find

• 4) At the edge of the neighborhood, there are shops

and offices of sufficiently varied types to supply the weekly needs of a household. • 5) A small ancillary building is permitted within the

backyard of each house. It may be used as a rental unit or place to work (e.g., office or craft workshop). • 6) An elementary school is close enough so that most

children can walk from their home. • 7) There are small playgrounds accessible to every

dwelling -- not more than a tenth of a mile away.

5) “granny-flats”

8) Streets within the neighborhood form a connected network, which disperses traffic by providing a variety of pedestrian and vehicular routes to any destination. (Plan from Duany Plater-Zyberk & Company)

9) The streets are relatively narrow and shaded by rows of trees. This slows traffic, creating an environment suitable for pedestrians and bicycles.

10) Buildings in the neighborhood center are placed close to the street, creating a well-defined outdoor room.

• Minneapolis -

Nicollet Mall

11) Parking lots and garage doors rarely front the street. Parking is relegated to the rear of buildings, usually accessed by alleys.

• 12) Certain prominent sites at the termination

of street vistas or in the neighborhood center are reserved for civic buildings. These provide sites for community meetings, education, and religious or cultural activities.

• 13) The neighborhood is organized to be self-

governing. A formal association debates and decides matters of maintenance, security, and physical change. Taxation is the responsibility of the larger community

A Planning Dichotomy • “This writer finds much of the neotraditional design philosophy

attractive, but it must be admitted that not everyone does. Much of the large-lot suburban zoning that neotraditional planners decry is not so much the planners’ choice as it is the will of the public. A substantial segment of the public prefers large-lot development, sharp separation of land uses, and the automobile-dependent way of life that goes with it--just so long as there is plenty of parking and traffic moves quickly” • Levy, John M. 2003. Contemporary Urban Planning (6th Ed.) p. 162

National Awards for Smart Growth Achievement • http://www.epa.gov/smartgrowth/awards.htm

• 2007 Smart Growth Awards •

Smart Growth BC is thrilled to announce our second annual Smarty Award Winners! • http://www.smartgrowth.bc.ca/Default.