La-01: Kitchens Group Poll For Jim Harlan (september 2008)

Jim Harlan for Congress Executive Summary Louisiana Congressional District 1 Tracking Poll – September 18-21, 2008 Methodology Four hundred likely voters in Congressional District One, Louisiana were interviewed in a random sample taken September 18-21, 2008. Respondents were screened for voter registration and their likelihood of voting in the 2008 Presidential election. The sample was balanced according to all known demographic factors. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The margin of error for this survey is ± 4.9%, with a 95% confidence level.

Overall Status of the Race: Harlan vs. Scalise ƒ

Jim Harlan now has freshman Congressman Steve Scalise on the ropes. Scalise is 8 points below 50%, a devastating position for any incumbent but a particularly big problem for Scalise who has only been in office since the Spring of 2008 and only won with 33,000 total votes.

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Harlan has moved to within 11 points of Scalise after starting from 53 points behind.

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Harlan’s focus on hurricane protection and recovery is a hot button for this district that simply doesn’t exist in other districts across America. Scalise’s ethical problems are significant and potentially disqualifying.

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Steve Scalise’s image has been significantly damaged by the communications of the Harlan campaign.

Steve Scalise

June

September

61% favorable 13% unfavorable

44% favorable 24% unfavorable

The race, at first considered a long shot, has now moved within striking distance for Jim Harlan. If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for. . .

June Republican Steve Scalise Democrat Jim Harlan undecided

September 68% 15% 17% 1

42% 31% 26

Additional Notes and Data Points: ƒ

PARTISANSHIP LESS A FACTOR: Partisanship is much less of a factor in this race than the perception of competence. The communication from the Harlan campaign is now effectively drawing the contrast between an independent-minded businessman and a career politician who represents the electorates’ worst perceptions of a self-interested, corrupt politician.

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HARLAN THE PROBLEM SOLVER + HURRICANE PROTECTION WORKS: The poll now shows that by a 5-to-1 margin the voters believe that the term “problem solver” is a good description of Democrat Jim Harlan. In addition, by a 5-to-1 margin, the voters believe that Democrat Jim Harlan has a plan for hurricane protection for this area of the state.

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SCALISE IS WEAK: Since Steve Scalise won this Congressional district with only 33,000 total votes, his depth of support is shallow. Therefore, as the voters have learned about his abuse of power and support of special interests, they find him unacceptable as a candidate.

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HARLAN CAMPAIGN EFFORT IS COMPREHENSIVE: The Harlan campaign plan going forward reflects a strongly funded effort with major television, radio, direct mail and field components. Scalise’s campaign appears to be moribund and has yet to communicate at all. Scalise now has a very difficult task. He must attempt to rebuild his own profile and then attempt to stop the surging Harlan.

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CHILDER’S REPEAT?: It is worth nothing that several members of the Harlan team were involved in the remarkable victory of Travis Childers in Mississippi’s 1st District earlier this year. A similar dynamic appears to be forming in Louisiana’s 1st District. Both Harlan and Childers are pro-life, pro-gun and fiscally conservative. Even though both districts were historically safe Republican districts the races feature a strong Democratic candidate with independent credentials verses a weak Republican in a time where historical turnout and huge societal pressures are breaking old partisan alliances.

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PICK UP OPPORTUNITY: This district now represents a major pick up opportunity for the Democrats. If the current trends continue, Jim Harlan is in a strong position to defeat Congressman Scalise and become the next Congressman in Louisiana’s 1st District.

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