Kbsl_branded Retail Sector

Indian Branded Retail Segment

13th October 2009 [email protected]

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Over the years Retail in India has been portrayed as

This..

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This..

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Or this…

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However The Future Holds…

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This…!!!

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Indian Retail Industry…At a Glance  We are living in the age of branding. Branding has developed from FMCG’s & kirana shops to multi facet stores present in shopping malls, stand alone stores, exclusive boutiques, etc.  The Indian retail market, is the top attractive investment destination followed by Russia & China*  Currently, the share of retail to the country’s GDP is around 12% and it is estimated to rise to around 22% by 2010  Among the retail market, apparels is the 2nd largest in terms of value, growing at a rate of 10% annually  With the opening up of the economy the retail industry has witnessed a change over the years and with FDI allowed up to 51% in single brand retail the demographics of this industry have improved substantially and is expected to improve even further  Of all market categories retail offers in itself the broadest canvas for any brand to show its true colors, to portray itself in front of the consumer and finally putting the brand in consumers hand  Changing consumer patterns, rising income levels and the emerging middle class which will constitute more than half of the total population is set to drive growth in this sector * ( AT Kearney’s annual Global retail Development Index in 2009)

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The recent recession did leave its footprints on the sector…. 

The current economic downturn faced world over has had an adverse effect on the sector



Recently India has slipped to 6th position from 2nd in export of clothing (USD 10.17 billion in 2008-09)



The current fiscal has seen garment export growth rate declining to 7% from 9% a year before



The declining trend has been visible since Jun 2008 and has carried on till Feb 09 with demand picking up with signs of a global economic recovery in the latter half of the year



Post September 2008, clothing exports from India have declined each month (excepting January 2009). The provisional figures for the September-March period are USD 5.52 billion v/s. USD 5.90 billion in the corresponding period last year, i.e. a decline of approximately 4.75%. The trend in April 2009 has continued to show a decline -9.71% Source: AEPC Estimates, Textile Commissioners office

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But the Future Holds promise for the companies !!!

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The Per capita GDP has grown exponentially over the years and is expected to grow further and… India GDP Per Capita

GDP Per Capita (Rs 000s)

90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

0.00

Year GDP Per Capita

Source: McKinsey report on Indian Consumer market

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…This along with the Transition of the middle class will lead to….

Source: McKinsey report on Indian Consumer market



In 2005 this middle class was of relatively small size comprising just 5% of the total population but that will increase to 41% by 2025



The total apparel consumption by these classes (strivers, seekers, and globals) is said to increase more than ten times from $3.6 billion in 2006 to $37 billion by 2025

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… Strong Consumption Growth  The combination of rapidly rising household incomes and a robustly growing population will lead to a significant increase on the consumption front.

Aggregate Consumption (trillion Indian Rupees) 80 60

 Aggregate consumption of India is expected to grow to 34 trillion rupees by 2015 and 70 trillion by 2025, a four fold increase from current levels of 17 trillion

40 20 0

 The Indian market is expected to be the 5th largest market in the world by 2025 surpassing the market of Germany Source: McKinsey report on Indian Consumer market

1985

1995

2005

2015

2025

Aggregate Consumption [email protected]

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AEPC also Forecasts Strong growth in the Indian Apparel Industry 

Attaining exports worth US$ 34 billion by 2015



Growing at an average of around 18% for the period 2009-2015



Have at least 5.3% share in global apparel market by 2015



Have 60% share in India’s textile exports



Should retain 90% of the domestic market which is growing @ 10%



Although low growth scenario of 6% annual growth rate is likely for the next 2 years , AEPC vision is based on sustained growth of top five apparel suppliers. Based on the past export trends of India and feasibility study and assuming that the world apparel market grows moderately at 8%, AEPC fixed the target for apparel exports by 2015 at US$34 billion

*Source: Apparel Export Promotion Council

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The Retailers are also working to overcome Key Hurdles… 

Increasing market share



Improving brand image



Insulating the export market by diversifying



Tackling production related issues and reducing cost disadvantage



Keeping a check on debt funded expansion



Penetrating the rural markets and Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities



Offering products for the lower income bracket [email protected]

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….and This Is What the Future holds  

 





As the consumer base in India grows exponentially from 300 million to an estimated 500 million in the next 5 years the Retail Sector is slated to grow along with it India’s overall retail sector is estimated to rise to US $ 833 billion by 2013 and US $ 1.3 trillion by 2018. Organised retail among this which constitutes just 5% of the total market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 20 billion in 2007 to US $ 107 billion by 2013 signifying the huge potential With the 2nd largest population in the world growing at an average of around 1% per annum and with rising income levels retail sector will ride on the consumption wave that continues to be on of the most significant part of the Indian GDP Malls are expected to be one of the major growth drivers of apparel retailing and in terms of opening new retail outlets, apparel retailers and brands attained a higher than expected growth rate and with the number of stores being added up every year the market potential is for all to see. The number of operational malls are expected to grow two folds and to cross 412 with 205 million square feet by 2010 and further 715 malls to be added by 2015 with a chunk of development taking place in tier-2 and tier-3 cities which are relatively newer avenues for the Industry Apparel industry is considered an environmental friendly industry due to its low emission levels. The industry can leverage the carbon credits saved in this industry and trade them in the world market. In fact, it can be a new source of revenue for our industry

Source: Company report, McKinsey report on Indian Consumer market

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Companies Section Zodiac :

Buy

Provogue

: Buy

Koutons

: Hold

Kewal Kiran Clothing Limited : Hold Given the fact that because of the rise in global equity markets the prices of the mentioned stocks have already gone up by an average of 150% in last 6 months, one can make an initial small investment and then add on dips. The SIP form of investment with equal weight on the four stocks is also a feasible way to invest. [email protected]

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Peer Analysis Company

Zodiac

Kewal Kiran Clothing Ltd.

Provogue

Koutons

Net Sales

338.86

145.09

363.56

1062.2

EBIDTA

39.54

20.62

25.25

223.8

EBIDTA Margins (%)

11.67

14.21

6.95

21.07

Net Profit

24.96

14.25

59.21

79.64

Net Profit Margin (%)

7.37

9.82

16.29

7.5

EPS

29.71

11.59

5.09

26.11

BVPS (31.03.2009)

192.19

122.98

69.78

139.38

CMP (24.08.2009)

295.25

208.09

66.50

363.95

P/E

10.1

18.02

13.06

2.61

Price/Book

1.53

1.7

.95

13.94

Dividend Yield

2.20

1.43

.45

.27

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Zodiac Clothing Company Ltd.(1/3) Investment Rationale:       

The company has innovated itself over the years by bringing out premium brands like ZODIAC, ZOD, Z3 which have been created a strong brand presence in the market The company follows a policy of operating only profitable stores under which it closed 13 stores last year With a presence through 69 exclusive Zodiac outlets and also present through 1000 multi brand stores the company has a pan India presence The company incurs capex through internal accruals only thus reducing its interest costs over the years Cash reserves of almost Rs 130 per share Sales have increased by 100% over FY06 and the company has maintained its margins even in a difficult economic scenario With eminent persons like Deepak Parekh on the BOD the company does not face risk of corporate governance

Risks:  

The company faces risk against currency fluctuations since it has operations in foreign countries The stock carries the burden of a very high impact cost because of low trading volume [email protected]

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Zodiac Clothing Company Ltd.(2/3) Key Metrics as on 12th October 2009

OVERVIEW Business Description

NSE/BSE

Listing

• Zodiac Clothing Company Limited (ZCCL)

Current Price (Rs)

295.25

are manufacturers and exporters of Premium Branded Business Shirts and Formal Office dress shirts in India

Market Cap (Rs Cr)

247.61

Free Float (%)

39.31

• ZCCL has been in this business for the last 50 years and operates through 1000 multi brand outlets and has 69 exclusive Zodiac stores

Shareholder Pattern (%) as on 30th June,2009

PROMOTER

60.69

FII

16.25

DII

-

Public

20.55

Others

2.52

52-WEEK HIGH (Rs)

361.50

52-WEEK LOW (Rs)

148.35

BETA

0.75

P/B (x)

1.53

Current P/E (x)

10.1

PEG Ratio

0.25

Dividend Yield (%)

2.20

Price Performance (%) as on 12th October 2009

Period

Key Products

Stock

Sensex

• Garments • Apparels

Key Management • Mr MY Noorani: Chairman

• Dr S Abid Hussain: Director (PadmaBhushan, IAS officer, Former Secretary Govt. of India)

• Mr Deepak Parekh: Director FCA

•Mr ML Apte: Director

1M

1.79

5.21

3M

2.87

23.76

1 Year

-2.06

61.73 [email protected]

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Zodiac Clothing Company Ltd.((3/3) Financials (Annual):

Financial Analysis:

Key Ratios (%)

2006

2007

2008

2009

Sales

167.6

259.2

283.5

338.86

Growth (%)

11.73

54.65

9.38

19.53

EBIDTA

5.73

28.4

31.3

39.54

• EBITDA margins have been maintained in

EBIDTA Margins (%)

3.4

10.96

11.04

11.67

FY09 and stands at 11.67% up marginally over FY08

Net Profit

8.94

23.64

32.42

24.96

Net Profit Margin (%)

5.33

9.12

11.44

7.37

EPS

10.64

28.14

38.60

29.71

BVPS

116.61

137.94

169.24

192.19

ROE (%)

6.5

22.1

25.1

16.5

ROCE (%)

8.4

17.75

22.75

14.17

Debt-Equity

.3

.28

.18

.18

2.66

13.06

16.65

27.67

Interest Coverage

• Sales increased by 19.53% even in a difficult economic climate standing at Rs 338.86 crores in FY09

• PAT margins have suffered in FY09 declining 400bps to 7.37%

• EPS has declined to Rs 29.71 in FY09 on account of lower profit margins

• ROE has suffered in FY09 due to lower margins standing at 16.5% and ROCE declined to 14.17%

• Debt equity ratio remains the same as FY08 and is impressive at .18 in FY09

Financials (Quarterly): Key Ratios (%)

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Net Sales

73.16

76.11

70.80

63.79

EBIDTA

9.49

5.86

5.67

7.94

Net Profit

5.10

2.85

2.53

4.14

EPS

6.07

3.4

3.01

4.9

• Interest Coverage ratio has increased to 27.67 times in FY09 showing the healthy financial condition of the company

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Provogue (India) Ltd.(1/3) Investment Rationale:  





The company operates on a pan India basis through 228 outlets in 68 cities It has entered into a joint-venture with Liberty International Plc which has experience of over 30 years in retail infrastructure, to open shopping centres named ‘ Prozone Liberty' and with the first mall slated to open in 2010 in Aurangabad the company has shown that it is on an aggressive growth path The company has also opened shopping plazas under the name “Promart” which shows that the company is continuously innovating itself and exploring new horizons for revenue maximization With such aggressive expansion plans the company is well placed to take advantage of the growth story of India in the years to come

Risks:  

The financials of the company have suffered a lot in the current year and it portrays a grim picture at present as evident by the financials of FY09 With less then expected rate of recovery it could take the company a lot more time to achieve the growth rate it has planned [email protected]

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Provogue (India) Ltd.(2/3) Key Metrics as on 12th October 2009

OVERVIEW Business Description

Key Products

NSE/BSE

Listing

• Provogue is into the business of

Current Price (Rs)

66.50

manufacturing and retailing garments and accessories for men and women in India

Market Cap (Rs Cr)

771.80

Free Float (%)

58.49

• Provogue is retailed through a chain of

52-WEEK HIGH (Rs)

142

52-WEEK LOW (Rs)

26.30

exclusive brand outlets called "Provogue Studio" at 70 locations

• Provogue has also opened shopping plazas under the name “Promart”

BETA

1.09

P/B (x)

0.95

Current P/E (x)

13.06 -

PEG Ratio

.45

Dividend Yield (%) Shareholder Pattern (%) as on 30th June,2009

PROMOTER

41.51

FII

26.43

DII

1.51

Public

23.84

Others

6.71

Price Performance (%) as on 2009

Period

Stock

Sensex

1M

4.15

5.21

3M

70.08

23.76

1 Year

-47.62

61.73

• Garments • Apparels

Key Management

• Mr. Om Prakash Chawla: Non-executive chairman; B.Com&M.Com • Mr. Nikhil Chaturvedi: Managing Director; • Mr. Tim Eynon:Director; MBA from INSEAD • Mr. Amitabh Taneja:Director; also M.D. Of Images Multimedia Pvt. Ltd., chairman of India retail forum& Images Fashion Forum

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Provogue (India) Ltd.(3/3) Financials (Annual):

Financial Analysis:

Key Ratios (%)

2006

2007

2008

2009

Sales

159.73

239.02

337.81

363.56

Growth (%)

38.59

49.64

41.33

7.62

EBIDTA

21.43

32.01

44.4

25.25

EBIDTA Margins (%)

13.42

13.39

13.14

6.95

current fiscal on account of lower demand from consumers

Net Profit

12.89

19.16

25.4

59.21

• EBITDA margins have declined by 600bps in

Net Profit Margin (%)

8.07

8.02

7.52

16.29

EPS

7.96

10.08

12.78

5.09

BVPS

67.9

147.43

220.89

69.78

the current fiscal and stand at 6.95% in FY09 but PAT margins have shown an increase on account of other income of Rs 82 crore

ROE (%)

16.77

9.82

7.04

9.44

ROCE (%)

9.85

9.68

4.58

6.27

OCF Growth do

.52

.1

.33

.41

Debt-Equity

0.49

0.23

0.48

0.32

Interest Coverage

5.43

4.35

2.99

0.93

Financials (Quarterly): Key Ratios (%)

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Net Sales

111.33

101.51

79

73.22

EBIDTA

8.77

9.25

10

10.7

Net Profit

7.83

7.22

8.34

6.74

EPS

3.42

0.62

0.71

0.58

• Sales has grown by 7% in FY09 standing at Rs 363.56 crores

• The company witnessed muted growth in the

• EPS has declined by more than 100% and stands at Rs 5.09 down from FY08 figure of 12.78

• ROE has increased marginally to 9.44% in FY09 while ROCE has also shown marginal increase to 6.27%

• Debt Equity ratio remains moderate in FY09 at 0.32 down marginally from FY08 level of 0.48

• Interest coverage ratio is very poor at 0.93 times exposing the company’s inability to not maintain its interest payments n case of a fall in income [email protected]

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Koutons Retail India Ltd(1/3) Investment Rationale:    

The company operates through 1400 exclusive retail outlets having the widest coverage among all the existing companies catering to both upper and lower segments of the middle class The company’s ability to penetrate the Tier1 and Tier 2 cities has positioned itself well to take use of the growing demand in these cities The company is on a aggressive expansion spree and plans to open another 300-400 outlets in the next 3-4 years thus increasing its reach to the consumers even more The company has witnessed sales growth of CAGR 88% and profit growth at CAGR of 80% over the last 4 years

Risks:  

High debts and a lower Interest coverage ratio raises doubts over the financial health of the company The spurt in expansion can go unwarranted if the demand does not rise as expected by the company’s management [email protected]

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Koutons Retail India Ltd(2/3) Key Metrics as on 12th October 2009

OVERVIEW Business Description

NSE/BSE

Listing

• Koutons Retail India Limited is an India

Current Price (Rs)

363.95

based apparel manufacturing and retailing company

Market Cap (Rs Cr)

1111.91

Free Float (%)

33.86

• The Company is engaged in designing,

52-WEEK HIGH (Rs)

754

52-WEEK LOW (Rs)

324.10

manufacturing and retailing apparel under the Koutons and Charlie Outlaw brands, through a network of 1175 brand outlets as of March 31, 2008, across India

Shareholder Pattern (%) as on 30th June,2009

PROMOTER

66.14

FII

19.95

DII

8.76

Public

5.05

Others

0.10

BETA

0.50

P/B (x)

2.61

Current P/E (x)

13.94

PEG Ratio

0.26

Dividend Yield (%)

0.27

Price Performance (%) as on 12th October 2009

Period

Stock

Key Products

• • • •

Fabric Processing Manufacturing IT Apparels

Key Management

• Mr. D.P.S Kohli: Chairman; B.Tech in mechanical Enng. • Mr. B.S.Sawhney: Managing Director; B.Com from D.U. • Mr. B.S.Sawhney: Deputy Managing Director;

Sensex

1M

3.47

5.21

3M

-7.84

23.76

1 Year

-41.95

61.73 [email protected]

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Koutons Retail India Ltd(3/3) Financials (Annual):

Key Ratios (%)

Financial Analysis:

2006

2007

2008

2009

Sales

158.38

633.53

793.4

1062.2

Growth (%)

104.13

300

25.23

33.88

the previous year standing at Rs 1062 crores

EBIDTA

24.80

66.38

152.4

223.8

• EBITDA margins have increased in FY09

EBIDTA Margins (%)

15.69

10.48

19.21

21.07

Net Profit

13.62

33.95

69.35

79.64

Net Profit Margin (%)

8.63

5.36

8.74

7.5

EPS

-

11.13

22.84

26.11

BVPS

-

53.55

114.59

139.38

ROE (%)

-

20.7

27.05

20.56

ROCE (%)

-

11.04

13.36

13.42

Debt-Equity

-

1.28

1.21

1.47

Interest Coverage

-

5.47

3.43

2.36

• Sales have grown by 33.88% in FY09 over

standing at 21% an increase of 186 bps as compared to FY08 but PAT margin suffered a decline of 120 bps on account of higher interest costs

• EPS has increased by 15% y-o-y, to Rs 26.11 per share in FY09

• ROE has suffered in the current fiscal and is at 20.56% in the current fiscal declining mainly on account of lower margins

• ROCE has remained the same as previous year and stands at 13.42%

Financials (Quarterly):

• Debt-Equity has marginally increased to 1.47 in FY09

Key Ratios (%)

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Net Sales

282.3

241.7

378.9

201.7

• Interest coverage ratio has declined over the

EBIDTA

48.2

43.5

94.8

48.3

Net Profit

19.5

13

35.8

11.5

EPS

6.39

4.26

11.74

3.77

previous years and stands at 2.36 times down from previous year figure of 3.43 times on account of lower profitability and high interest costs

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Kewal Kiran Apparels Pvt Ltd.(1/3) Investment Rationale:    

The company has been focusing on organic growth over the years by increasing the number of stores under operation and currently has 123 operational stores on a pan India front The company has been increasing the brand equity of its flagship brand KILLER every year by innovating it over the years and has successfully completed 20 years of operations The company has been able to maintain the brand image of its products among stiff competition from the other well known foreign brands The company operates at 20% EBITDA margins and 14% PAT margins and is a low debt company with a ratio of 0.16 which are quite good financials for a company in the apparels industry

Risks:   

The biggest risk faced by the company is its inability in understanding the consumer’s taste and preferences Expenses related to selling and distribution are high Availability of retail space according to need and preference [email protected]

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Kewal Kiran Apparels Pvt Ltd.(2/3) Key Metrics as on 12th October 2009

OVERVIEW Business Description

Key Products

NSE/BSE

Listing

• The company manufactures and markets

Current Price (Rs)

208.90

branded jeans, semi formal and casual wear for men and women

Market Cap (Rs Cr)

256.47

Free Float (%)

26.07

•The company owns popular brands like

52-WEEK HIGH (Rs)

209.40

52-WEEK LOW (Rs)

91.50

BETA

0.95

P/B (x)

1.7

killer, easies, lawman, integriti, etc

•The company has sales presence in Asia and Middle East as well

•It has its own R&D team which keeps on innovating designs

Current P/E (x)

18.02

PEG Ratio

-

Dividend Yield (%) Shareholder Pattern (%) as on 30th June,2009

PROMOTER

73.93

FII

9.85

DII

.99

Public

14.62

Others

0.61

1.43

Price Performance (%) as on 12th October 2009

Period

Stock

Sensex

1M

5.48

5.21

3M

51.76

23.76

1 Year

49.11

61.73

• Garments

• Apparels • Accessories

Key Management

• Mr. Kewalchand P. Jain: Chairman & Managing Director; Marticulate, Trustee of Jatnobai Karmchandji charitable trust • Mr. Hemant P. Jain: Marticulate • Dr. Prakash K. Mody: PhD In organic chemistry, MBA from JBIMS; Chairman & M.D. Of Unichem Laboratories, member of young president Organization Inc.

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CERTIFIED CAPITAL MARKET PROFESSIONAL

Kewal Kiran Apparels Pvt Ltd.(3/3) Financials (Annual):

Financial Analysis:

Key Ratios (%)

2006

2007

2008

2009

Sales

85.96

133.61

159.59

145.09

Growth (%)

229.22

55.43

19.44

- 9.09

EBIDTA

19.95

25.24

30.43

20.62

EBIDTA Margins (%)

23.21

18.89

19.07

14.21

Net Profit

11.66

18.65

21.12

14.25

Net Profit Margin (%)

13.56

13.96

13.23

9.82

EPS

12.67

15.16

17.28

11.59

BVPS

39.99

102.44

114.91

122.98

ROE (%)

51.1

22.91

15.8

9.74

ROCE (%)

9.95

14.96

14.75

11.44

• ROE and ROCE have suffered significant

Debt-Equity

0.15

0.17

0.19

0.16

Interest Coverage

declines in the current fiscal standing at 9.74% and 11.44% respectively in FY09

13.58

8.03

9.37

5.75

• Sales in FY09 have witnessed a decline of 9% standing at Rs 145.09 crores

• EBITDA margins have fallen by 500 bps and stands at 14.21% in FY09 and PAT margins have suffered a fall of 300 bps standing at 9.82% in FY09

• EPS has declined to Rs 11.59 in FY09 as against Rs 17.82 in FY08

• BVPS has witnessed marginal increase in the current fiscal standing at Rs 122.98 but up almost 3 times from the FY06 figures

• Debt-equity ratio remains very good at 0.16 and has been maintained at these levels since the last 4 years

Financials (Quarterly): Key Ratios (%)

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Net Sales

48.42

35.24

33.99

33.28

EBIDTA

7.75

4.26

6.54

8.26

Net Profit

5.47

3.04

4.51

6.28

EPS

4.45

2.47

3.67

5.11

• Interest Coverage ratio has declined over the year and stands at 5.11 times in FY09 which is a cause of concern because a stable debt equity ratio shows that the EBIT of the company is suffering over the years

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