Is Making Money Going To Be Ez?

report 13th March 2009/Weekly

Financial markets

This issue: Is making money going to be EZ? Opportunities in network infrastructure Rugby - that try, that match Barbarians v All Blacks 1973 (here)

Anti-mainstream media

Economics

Is making money going to be EZ? Opportunities in network infrastructure Since the last TRR, economic disintegration has continued and western stock markets crashed through their November 2008 lows and are now attempting a fightback. It’s amazing watching what would have been considered sacred cows being slain oneby-one. BB The first cut in General Electric’s dividend for 71 years was followed by the loss of its coveted triple-A rating on its debt; BB Citibank, formerly the world’s largest banking stock by market capitalisation, briefly traded as a penny stock when its share price traded below a dollar last week; and BB The Bank of England lowered interest rates to 0.5%, the lowest level since its creation in 1694, and will print money for the first time in its 315 year history via Quantitative Easing. Slaughterhouse of fiscal prudence

It’s so difficult to find sectors/asset classes which I would consider investing in at the moment. My current short list consists of: BB Gold and silver;

Paul Mylchreest [email protected]

BB Agriculture and food;

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BB Energy; and BB Network infrastructure; I own a basket of gold and silver stocks, but my biggest single position (by far) is a network infrastructure stock, which might surprise some people.

Network infrastructure - checking in with Cisco, Juniper and AT&T

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I listened to the recent analyst conferences of Cisco Systems and Juniper Networks and remain confident on the outlook for these dominant providers of network infrastructure. At worst, these stocks provide a defensive haven during the economic crisis - and not just because of the resilience of their end market. Juniper ended 2008 with a net cash position of US$2.0bn versus a US$7.2bn market cap (27.7%), while the mighty Cisco has net cash of US$22.7bn versus its market cap of US$85.4bn (26.6%). Juniper showed a slide summarising current expectations for the development of the internet. Estimated internet growth 2008-12 (billions of people)

Footsie 100

2008

2012e

Internet users

1.6

2.0

Internet connections

3.5

5.0

Broadband connections

0.9

1.5

15

137

IPTV subscribers (millions) Source: Juniper Networks

These numbers fail to capture the immense growth in internet traffic given the need to incorporate lengthening times spent on line and more bit-hungry applications, especially video/TV: Bandwidth requirements of internet applications Application Email Phone

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Est. file size in MB for 1 hr content 1 29

Music

58

Video

450

HDTV

2,700

Source: Juniper Networks

Surveys by IDC and the Discovery Institute peg the average annual growth rate in internet traffic averaging 43-62% during the period 2006-12, with higher growth in the later years. Juniper commented that these surveys are in line with their customers’ expectations of 50-60% p.a., implying a more than doubling every two years. Even more impressively, traffic in the mobile core is doubling every several months.

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Juniper’s founder and Chief Technical Officer, Pradeep Sindhu outlined what he described as a “virtuous cycle” for his company. In Sindhu’s view, improving high performance networks enable new user scenarios (i.e. applications and services) which attracts more users and usage which drives further innovation in high performance networks. While the telecom majors are cutting back on capital investment where they can, Juniper emphasised that they are not cutting back in areas which enable them to expand services to customers and increase revenue, i.e. in next generation wired and wireless networking. On 10 March 2009, AT&T announced its capital expenditure programme for 2009. The planned US$17-18bn is down slightly on last year’s US$20.0bn and comparable with 2007’s US$17.7bn. The company noted how spending and manpower is being skewed towards the networking sector: “Approximately two-thirds of AT&T’s 2009 investment will extend and enhance the company’s wireless and wired broadband networking to provide more coverage, speed and capacity. To support increased customer demand in mobility, broadband and video, the company plans to add nearly three thousand jobs in 2009. However, as previously announced, the company plans to reduce jobs in other areas – primarily wireline – due to economic pressures…”

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Carrier ethernet taking the network by storm The carrier network is transferring to ethernet technology on a global basis. Ethernet is not new, having proliferated in LANs (local area networks for businesses, residential, campus, etc) for more than twenty years. A rudimentary form of ethernet was invented by Bob Metcalfe in 1973 at Xerox’s famous Palo Alto Research Center. Xerox wanted a networking system so its hundreds of computers could print from the laser printer it was developing. Metcalfe is the man behind “Metcalfe’s Law” – the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users. In a breakout session of Juniper’s analysts’ conference on 24 February 2009, there was a specific discussion on carrier ethernet segment. In simple terms, carrier networks consist of: BB Access networks – which aggregates traffic from homes and businesses; BB Metro area networks – which aggregate the access networks in a metropolitan area; and BB Wide area networks – which aggregate the metro networks. Juniper outlined the three phases in the development of ethernet in the carrier sector:

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Phase 1: In the late 1990s/early 2000s, the carriers began to think about migrating to ethernet as it offered the opportunity to lower costs substantially. The cost of continuing with highcost, fragmented networks became too great and the opportunity to move to a standardised infrastructure across the network was compelling. However, ethernet technology needed further development if it was to outperform the stability of the old SONET (synchronous optical networking) networks. Phase 2: Ethernet began moving into the carrier sector while expenditure on legacy networks was capped. Work by standards bodies and continued technological improvement led to a catchup, giving it comparable reliability to SONET. At the same time, carriers needed higher performance capabilities due to the surge in broadband and video/TV applications - SONET did not scale so readily. Juniper believes that the classic “chasm” in carrier ethernet’s development was crossed in late-2006. Phase 3: “This is the time of the ethernet” says Juniper – we are now moving towards ethernet ubiquity from the core to the data centre to the edge across the globe. While I like the network infrastructure sub-sector, especially the dominant players like Cisco and Juniper, from a personal persepctive, I was looking for a smaller cap play with greater leverage to the expansion of the network.

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Alpine ski chalets or financial survival? In the late-1990s, there were tech stock “gurus” like Mary Meeker and Henry Blodgett - and there was also George Gilder, remember him? Wikipedia describes George Gilder as a “techno utopian intellectual” and “enthusiastic evangelist of technology and the internet”. Gilder correctly called the technology boom but found his reputation tarnished a little, along with many others, by failing to call the subsequent bust in stock prices. In the aftermath of the dot.com bust, I felt there must be some companies which had seen their stock prices decimated but would still be huge beneficiaries of rapid global “network-ification”.

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I forget how, but I ended up subscribing to the “Gilder Technology Report” looking for stock ideas. The stock I ended up buying back in 2003 was then called Lanoptics and is now called EZchip Semiconductor. It is NASDAQ-quoted and headquartered in Israel with offices in California, Boston and China. EZchip designs network processors (NPUs) and fits into the “fabless” model as the processors themselves are manufactured by third parties, IBM, Taiwan Semiconductor and Marvell in this case. Rather than make a small bet, I decided to throw modern portfolio theory out of the window and make a largish single bet, knowing the outcome was probably going to be binary – either I’d lose

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my shirt or, maybe, hit on a “ten-bagger”. The rationale was that sometimes you only need one really good idea to achieve financial success and how nice it would be to have my own Alpine ski chalet! I bought my position back in July 2003 and it’s been a rollercoaster ride so far as the share price chart shows: EZchip Semiconductor - share price (5 yrs)

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Source: finance.yahoo.com

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I still don’t have the ski chalet and my priorities are now focused on long-term financial survival rather than glamorous consumerism. However, I think I’m going to find out which side of the binary outcome my bet is going to fall in the next 6-9 months - it’s been a long wait, far longer than I originally anticipated.

From power points to production George Gilder first heard about EZchip in a presentation by the company’s CEO, Eli Fruchter, in Atlanta in 1999. Fruchter didn’t have a product, just some Power Point slides in which he set out his design for a high speed network processor. An (NPU) is a programmable microchip used to sort and route packets on a network. NPUs are general purpose designs that can be bought off-the-shelf, programmed by the likes of Cisco and Juniper, and incorporated into their routers and switches. Gilder explained:

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“Just as the Pentium is the microprocessor that makes the PC work, the network processor has become the device that makes the next generation internet work – that does the crucial routing and switching at network nodes on the net” At the time, this emerging sector was targeted by heavyweights such as Motorola and IBM in addition to a slew of other start-ups including Xelerated and others long forgotten. Gilder explained: “At the time, the leaders were Motorola, Intel, IBM, Trimedia (now part of Alcatel), Cisco, Lucent, Texas Instruments, AMCC, Broadcom, and Agere. You name your technology champion, they

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were investing billions of dollars apiece in network processor projects. The largest electronics and computer companies in the world put more than $20 billion into network processor design and development over the last decade.” In some ways, what’s happening in the network infrastructure market resembles how companies like Intel and AMD supplied microprocessors to PC manufacturers and disrupted the earlier integrated model of IBM. Before NPUs with sufficient performance and cost advantages were available, Cisco and Juniper designed their own micro-processors or ASICs (application specific integrated circuits).

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Gilder explained why, even back in 1999, he thought EZchip’s product might prevail over rivals: “I was smitten by Eli’s elegant PowerPoints. The key to a processor that could put a wire-speed 10 gigabit per second router on a chip and hollow out Cisco according to the paradigm was memory and application specific parallel processors. Everyone else was using fast power hungry off-chip static RAMs with bottleneck buses between them and on-chip general-purpose processors…The whole shebang (competitors’ designs) tended to be slow, complex and power hungry, without being discernibly superior to the application specific integrated circuit (ASIC) solutions..”

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ASICs lack the flexibility of NPUs and cannot be easily reprogrammed in response to changing applications and protocols. Within carrier networks, high speed NPUs, i.e. 10-gig and above, are suitable for use in edge routers and metro ethernet switches. Lower speed NPUs are used in access equipment (although greater throughput is increasingly required here too). During 1999-2003, almost all of EZchip’s competitors, both large and small, fell by the wayside. Meanwhile, EZchip was able to turn its 10-gig NPU design into a commercially available product in 2003. Unfortunately, the company did not immediately convert the development work into substantial revenue. Looking back, this seems to have been due to three factors: BB The rollout of ethernet across the carrier market was only in its early stages as described above;

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BB There was less need for NPUs that could deliver speeds as fast as 10 gig at the time as concepts like streaming video and triple play were still embryonic; and BB The big network hardware suppliers, like Cisco and Juniper, were not ready to replace their ASICs with third party NPUs in routers and switches.

Playing with the big dogs in the long grass Despite this setback, EZchip continued to develop its product range:

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BB NP-2 - a 20-gig NPU with integrated traffic management began shipping in 2006; and BB NP-3 – a 30-gig NPU with integrated traffic management and on-chip OAM (operations administration maintenance) began sampling with customers in mid-2008 and is now shipping. There were some good moments on the Gilder website when sleuthing by contributors (some of whom are networking engineers) led to the realisation that Juniper Networks and then the “500lb gorilla”, Cisco Systems, were designing in EZchip NPUs into their next generation carrier ethernet products.

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Juniper designed the NP-2 into its MX range of routers which was the primary driver of EZchip’s revenue growth during 2007 and 2008 - although it was not the non-linear growth I had hoped for: EZchip: quarterly sales growth 2006-2008 (US$m) 12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

Coffee

2.0

0.0 Q106

Q206

Q306

Q406

Q107

Q207

Q307

Q407

Q108

Q208

Q308

Q408

Source: EZchip Semiconductor

In Q408, Juniper accounted for 55% of the company’s US$9.6m sales. During its analysts’ meeting on 24 February 2009, Juniper stated that its MX range had sales of US$427m in 2008 and is now shipping at a US$500m p.a. rate. The company has designed in EZchip’s NPUs, almost certainly the newer NP-3, for its next generation of MX routers.

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With regard to Cisco, neither Cisco nor EZchip have officially acknowledged that Cisco is a customer of EZchip. In EZchip’s literature it states that Cisco, Juniper and Alcatel have 90% of the CESR market and: “Two of the three use EZchip for their strategic CESR platforms” It is important to note that Alcatel-Lucent denies that it uses any third party network procecessors.

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In October 2006, EZchip and Marvell Inc. announced a partnership to develop and sell NPUs. It seems that this provided hidden confirmation that Cisco was designing in EZchip NPUs - it is believed that Cisco insisted on the Marvell participation. While Marvell will book sales of EZchip’s NPUs to Cisco, it will pay EZchip in the form of a royalty equivalent to the gross margin (probably c.60%) that EZchip would have received if it booked the sale itself, i.e. there is no difference to the bottom line. Beginning this quarter, Cisco’s existing 7600 series routers will offer upgrade options with EZchip NPUs. More importantly, Cisco’s new range of ASR 9000 routers will begin shipping for trials in the current quarter and will incorporate a tailor-made version of the NP-3 (the NP-3c) designed specifically for Cisco. Cisco announced the ASR 9000 edge router in November 2008. This is purpose built for high capacity IP telecom networks, e.g. to cope with massive surges in video traffic. The company’s claim that it can deliver 400 gig per slot and a system capacity of 6.4 terabytes (five or six times competing products) led to scepticism from some analysts and industry commentators, especially as some felt Cisco was less than forthcoming on the technology. Brian Coleman of DominoAnalytics had an alternative view:

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“…we have come to learn through our independent research efforts that EZchip’s NP-3c processor is being used in the initial line cards for the ASR 9000 and EZchip’s 100 gig NP-4 processors are likely to be included in future line cards for this product.” Back in May 2008, EZchip announced that its next generation NP-4 processor was being designed. The NP-4 will have a capacity of 100 gigabit per second, equivalent to processing 100 thousand 400 page books every second (there are up to 4 NPUs per line card which adds up to Cisco’s claim of 400 gigs per slot). The NP-4 will have enhanced video processing capability. Eli Fruchter commented: “While telecom and cable network operators are now rapidly embracing carrier ethernet networks and services, video over the net and high-definition IPTV are expected to drive explosive growth in network traffic.”

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The NP-4 is expected to sample with customers in the latter part of 2009. EZchip’s focus will remain on the high-speed segment of the market in the CESR space. That said, it is more than doubling its current total addressable market with an impending launch of a product in to the lower speed access market, i.e. where business and residential users connect to the carriers’ metro networks. The NPA is a scaled down version of the NP-3 offering 100 megabit, 1 gig and 10 gig ethernet with a maximum aggregate throughput of 10 gigabits. The NPA will be sampling with customers by the middle of this year.

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EZchip - assumptions and financial outlook When I started writing this Thunder Road Report, I was going to mention that a sell-side research report had never been written on EZchip. That changed last week with the publication of an 18-page report by Jeff Schreiner, an analyst at boutique investment bank, Capstone Investments. His forecasts for sales, net income and EPS are as follows: EZchip Semiconductor: estimates by Capstone

NASDAQ

US$m

2008

2009e

2010e

Sales

33.57

56.78

91.71

Net Income GAAP

(4.60)

11.10

28.22

6.82

17.13

33.82

Net Income Pro forma EPS GAAP

(US$)

(0.20)

0.47

1.20

EPS Pro forma

(US$)

0.27

0.65

1.25

Source: Capstone Investments

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In modelling EZchip, Schreiner begins with the CESR (carrier ethernet switches and routers) market as a whole before drilling down into the different segments. He concurs with industry estimates that the CESR market was worth US$2.2bn in 2008 of which EZchip’ total addressable market (TAM) for microprocessors was US$750m. The TAM can be broken down into traditional ASICs of US$450m (60%) and merchant silicon (NPUs) of US$300m (40%). The merchant market can be further broken down into low speed of US$200m and the faster growing high-speed market of US$100m. EZchip had sales of US$33.6m last year, implying a 34% share of the high-speed segment. Looking forward, Schriener uses the following assumptions in forecasting EZchip’s P&L in 2010: BB The TAM for microprocessors used in CESR remains static at US$750m; BB The merchant silicon share of the CESR market rises from 40% to 55%; BB High-speed merchant silicon increases from US$100m to US$180m; and

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BB EZchip’s market share in the high-speed merchant sector increases from 35% to 50%. The first assumption seems like a worst case scenario to me given the strong growth in internet traffic and simultaneous rollout of carrier ethernet to replace legacy systems. Indeed, the report notes that while the total CESR market could remain flat at US$2.2bn in 2009, reacceleration is expected thereafter with the market possibly being worth US$3.2bn in 2011. Of the third party suppliers of merchant silicon in the high speed sector, only the private company Xelerated remains. It hasn’t got either the product performance or the customer relationships of

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EZchip. I am hopeful that the estimated 50% market share in the fourth assumption can be exceeded – maybe not by 2010, but in subsequent years. The biggest competitive threat to EZchip in the high-speed market probably still comes from internally designed products from its customers. Two issues mitigate this risk, at least for the next several years. Firstly, product cycles typically last 3-7 years and it would be both disruptive and expensive to change mid way through. Secondly, the likes of Cisco and Juniper are sourcing from EZchip because it has a superior product. It needs to maintain this leadership and the development of NP-4 should maintain its superiority in the medium term.

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The Capstone report acknowledges that its estimates include little contribution from the low- speed NPA product. I doubt Capstone’s assertion that it could equal the contribution of the high speed NPUs, but it could certainly provide upside surprise. The lowspeed segment is dominated by Agere and Wintegra, but EZchip’s NPA product is beginning to ramp up design wins with the likes of Ericsson and Ciena, Overall, I hope that the Capstone estimates are conservative. Their simplistic valuation of 15x 2010e earnings of US$1.25, giving a price target of US$19.00 is hardly demanding either. The current share price is US$13.00. It is also worth noting that at the end of 2008, the company had net cash of US$48.1m compared with a market cap of US$300m. EZchip has adequate finance to fund organic development – indeed its net cash position increased by US$3.7m in Q408.

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Rugby - that try, that match – Barbarians v All Blacks 1973 Every fan knows the most famous try in rugby union history scored by Gareth Edwards for the Barbarians against the All Blacks on 27 January 1973 at Cardiff Arms Park in Wales. I watched the try again on YouTube and it sent a shiver down my body even though I’ve watched it many times before.

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I’m more of a football (soccer) fan than a rugby fan, but there is no doubt in my mind that when played well, rugby union has a rhythmic ebb and flow which football can’t match. I suspect that even viewers (e.g. in the US) who are unfamiliar with the game, can’t fail to appreciate this try – literally in an artistic sense if nothing else. Here is the youtube link to 1 minute 38 seconds of footage, beginning just before Phil Bennett collects the ball to start the move leading to the try.

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CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) Most rugby fans can recite part, and some probably all, of Cliff Morgan’s commentary – although few can do justice to his melodious Welsh accent: “This is great stuff…Phil Bennett covering, chased by Alistair Scowen…Brilliant…oh that’s brilliant! John Williams…Bryan Williams…Pullin…John Dawes…great dummy!...David, Tom David… the halfway line…Brilliant by Quinnell! This is Gareth Edwards! A dramatic start…What a score!…Oh that fellow Edwards…If the

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greatest writer of the written word had written that story, no one would have believed it.” Watching it again, I was moved to find out: BB What the Barbarians players involved thought of the try and the game as a whole? BB How the Barbarians were able to defeat the mighty All Blacks? and BB What factors contributed to making it such a memorable moment in rugby folklore?

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The spirit of the Barbarians I think the first factor which made it so special was the involvement of the Barbarians and the spirit and style of play of this unique rugby team. The club was founded in 1890 by W.P. (“Tottie”) Carpmael during an “oyster supper” in the north of England according to the legend. Why he called it the Barbarians is unclear. In Cliff Morgan’s opinion: “It isn’t easy to explain what it is that makes the Barbarians so special. It’s a mixture of views and values. The club is over a century old, and to me part of its romance is that it was thought up spontaneously over a pint of porter and a plate of oysters at a time when there were trams in the street…”

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The Barbarians is a touring team in a real sense as the club has no stadium of its own. It usually plays 6 or 7 games every season and, since 1948, has played against every major overseas side visiting the UK – hence the All Blacks game in 1973. The club still had a very informal and amateurish way of organising itself back in 1973. John Dawes, who had captained the British Lions team on the 1971 New Zealand tour, remembered being asked to play in the game: “It was the Sunday before the match when I received the call. ‘Can you play for the Barbarians against the All Blacks on Saturday?’ a voice asked. ‘Oh yeah, and will you be captain as well?”

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Besides the short notice, Dawes had retired from international rugby and was due to play for his club, London Welsh, in a cup match against London Scottish on the same day. He told the caller that he would get back to him tomorrow and fortunately: “…my club were kind enough to let me turn out for the Baa-Baas instead. It’s impossible to imagine that happening nowadays.” No matter how good any rugby player is, he can only play for the Barbarians if he is invited by the President of the club. Ability on the field of play is obviously important, but being a “good sportsman” in the broad sense of the word is considered equally important. It is one of the quaint traditions of the team that while all players

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wear the famous black and white hooped shirts, they wear the socks from their respective country or club. The world’s first “rugby superstar”, Barry John, a former Barbarian and the Welsh fly-half for Wales before Phil Bennett, commented in his autobiography:

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“This is one of the honours of rugby. My father always said that to be asked to represent the Barbarians was an accolade, as important as being asked to play for your country or for the British Lions. I have played for the Barbarians six times and I have always considered that selection for the side is a mark of the regard in which a player is held in terms of his sportsmanship. A bad loser or a gloater-in-victory does not get picked…” “Tottie” Carpmael was a believer in a running, passing, attacking style of rugby which has survived to the present day in matches played by the team he founded. Cliff Morgan characterises this as: “…their insistence on playing a recklessly attacking game, even if it cost defeat – not that winning or losing meant a great deal to them...enjoyment and entertainment were what they were promoting.” According to former England player, Nigel Starmer–Smith: “…the policy is to attack from every possible position.”

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This attack at-all-costs style was undoubtedly the foundation of the famous 1973 try. When Phil Bennett recovers the ball from Bryan Williams’ kick, he is within yards of his own goal line. Bennett was the fly half and kicker for the team and kicking the ball out of play was the safe option. Alternatively, he could have passed it to the team mate on his right as the All Black forwards bore down on him. He took neither of those options – instead choosing to run directly towards the opposition.

The Welsh factor

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While the “Barbarians factor” was significant, the fact that the game was played in Wales at Cardiff Arms Park added to the occasion – for two reasons I think. Firstly, the Barbarians team has always had a strong link with Wales which continues to this day. Beginning in 1901 and continuing until 1986, the Barbarians always played Penarth RFC during their annual Easter tour to southern Wales. Indeed, the Esplanade Hotel on the seafront in Penarth was as close to being their clubhouse as the Barbarians ever came. In his biography of the Barbarians, Nigel Starmer-Smith emphasises the strength of the team’s link with Wales and the Arms Park: “But the Barbarians have a ‘spiritual’ home in South Wales…The traditional warmth of the reception accorded to the Barbarians by the people of South Wales has made Cardiff Arms Park very much a “home” ground for big occasions.”

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Secondly, the 1973 match was played midway through the “golden age” of Welsh rugby. Wales had won or tied for first place in the Five Nations Championship (competing against England, Ireland, Scotland and France) in 1969, 1970 (with France), 1971 (Grand Slam – Wales won all four matches). The 1972 competition was abandoned due to the troubles in Ireland and the 1973 competition would turn out to be a five-way tie. Of the 15 members of the Barbarians team which played the All Blacks in 1973, no fewer than seven were Welsh – JPR Willliams,

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John Dawes, John Bevan, Phil Bennett, Gareth Edwards, Derek Quinnell and Tom David. The number would have been eight had Barry Llewellyn not pulled out due to injury to be replaced by Sandy Carmichael of Scotland. Two other Welsh players who were chosen for the original side, Gerald Davies and Mervyn Davies, also pulled out due to injury to be replaced by two of their fellow countrymen, Tom David and John Bevan. The two Davies’s pulled out on the morning of the match although the captain, John Dawes, felt they could have played through their injuries. Instead they watched from the stands and confessed to Dawes later that after the first half an hour of the match: “…one turned to the other and said: ‘I think we’ve made a bit of a mistake.”

Rivalry with the All Blacks renewed Palladium (US$/oz)

After the spirit of attacking rugby and the Welsh factor, the third factor making the try and the game so memorable was that it was effectively a return match between the British Lions (a combined England, Scotland, Ireland and Wales) and the All Blacks following the famous Lions’ tour of New Zealand in 1971. The Lions had beaten the All Blacks 2-1 in a four test series after the final match ended in a nail biting 14-14 draw. It was a truly momentous victory for the Lions as it was the first, and is still the only, time that the British Lions have beaten the All Blacks in a test series in New Zealand. It made a big impact back in Britain and Ireland. Willie John McBride:

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“More wordage has been poured out about the 1971 New Zealand tour than any other in history… We won because we were able to equal the All Blacks forward, something that had not happened previously, and we beat them behind the scrum.” Afterwards, All Blacks’ captain Colin Meads made the prediction that no side would ever again come to New Zealand and beat the All Blacks. Coming to Cardiff, the All Blacks were intent on revenging their Lions’ defeat, especially since 12 of the Barbarians team had been members of the Lions’ squad in 1971. The British Lions, in the guise of the Barbarians, wanted to reaffirm their supremacy. The scene was set as JPR Williams explained:

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“Our famous victories on the other side of the world had led to a huge amount of public expectation…Everyone’s eyes were on us that day – it was billed as the 1971 Lions versus the 1973 All Blacks.” Gareth Edwards: “We all felt the pressure of expectation from the crowd. Also it was the first opportunity for British spectators to witness the nucleus of the victorious 1971 Lions team.” Furthermore, the All Blacks were unbeaten on their current tour of Britain and Ireland and according to John Dawes: “…the Valleys wanted to see the tourists silenced.”

Influence of Carwyn James When John Dawes phoned back the Barbarians to say he could play in the All Blacks match, he also stipulated that: “…Carwyn James, the Llanelli coach and the genius who guided us to glory in ’71, would be allowed to coach us. The Baa-Baas hierarchy weren’t that keen, as it was not in their tradition to have coaches, but we felt this was the perfect opportunity to show the British public the sort of rugby the Lions had played down under two years previous.” On the Thursday when the squad met up for training, there was no sign of Carwyn so the team trained without him. Dawes explained: “Nevertheless, we had a runaround, although you could hardly call it a ‘session’. A renewal of acquaintances would be more accurate. The same thing happened on Friday – no Carwyn, a little ‘training’.” The little training they did have went badly according to Gareth Edwards: “We’d had virtually no time to come together and the training in Penarth had been shocking. Whatever we tried went wrong. I doubt whether there could have been a worse dress rehearsal; there had been dropped passes all over the place.” Dawes still wanted the “great man” (as he called Carwyn James) involved, so he “decided to act” on the morning of the match: “We were staying in the Royal Hotel, a mere stone’s throw from Cardiff Arms Park, and I invited Carwyn up to my room at 11am for a coffee. Lo and behold, when he arrived, the whole of the team just happened to be jammed into that small room. It was worth the squeeze as Carwyn gave us an inspirational 20-minute pep-talk…” JPR Williams remembered: “In accordance with the tradition of the Barbarians as the ultimate amateurs, we had no coach but our captain, John Dawes, who had come out of retirement for the game, had invited Carwyn James to visit us in the dressing room. Just as he had done so successfully

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as Lions coach in New Zealand, Carwyn was able to put us in the right frame of mind for the Cardiff match with a few well chosen words.” Besides adding another element to the “Made in Wales” aspect, Carwyn James was a truly inspirational rugby coach. In club rugby, James coached Llanelli, the club he had played for, to four Welsh cups in the 1970s. Before his arrival, Llanelli (nicknamed “the Scarlets”) was struggling to regain its status as a force in Welsh rugby as Phil Bennett recalled: “It also required someone very special to fuse the traditional flair of the Scarlets with a competitive, more ruthless modern approach. That someone was Carwyn James…an inspiring man, a motivator, an eccentric, but also a meticulous planner with a ruthless streak.” The great Barry John grew up in the same small coal mining village, Cefneithin, in the Gwendraeth Valley where James lived when he played fly-half for Llanelli. In his autobiography, John remembers when he was a small boy running after James on the training ground: “We used to run with him, pass to him and kick to him…After a while he used to take us to one side and squat down and talk to us about rugby. He showed me how to dummy, to side-step, the art he lad learned through watching the heroes of his youth.” This was quite some influence on from Barry John, or “King John” as he was christened after the 1971 Lions tour to New Zealand – a player who was: “…a completely balanced player, able to pass well on either side, kick magnificently with either foot and break either way off either foot…” The story I think which captures James’ winning mentality better than any other concerns his preparations in the run up to the Lions 1971 tour. JPR Williams: “Carwyn had thrown himself into his coaching role and no stone was going to be left unturned with him in charge. He spent hours in South Africa House in London, poring over the newspaper reports of how the Springboks had beaten New Zealand in 1970…He had the most amazing rugby brain that I have ever come across and, from my medical background, I could see that he was not only a coach but a psychologist as well. Under his direction, the lazy ones would train twice a day whilst the over-committed would be given the day off. He understood every single one of his players.” Besides coaching the Lions to victory against the All Blacks in 1971, James had also coached Llanelli to victory over the All Blacks on their home ground, Stradey Park, three months prior to the Barbarians match. At the beginning of the season, “Saint James of Stradey” told the sceptical Llanelli players that they would beat the All Blacks. Llanelli’s fly-half Phil Bennett:

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“I think most of us thought he was daft, but Carwyn believed it because he had already planned it in his head. He knew we needed to become more ruthless so he encouraged us to show no mercy to any team we come across, whatever the circumstances.” Carwyn James was, therefore, the perfect choice to give the Barbarian players a pep talk before the match – especially as the mood of the Barbarians team was far from laid back as JPR confessed: “…for a Barbarians team we were unusually nervous: normally as Baa-Baas, the mood was relaxed because we felt we had nothing to lose but, this time, we felt we had everything to lose.”

Don’t forget the commentator For the millions who watched live on TV live and for those who’ve watched this famous try since, I doubt that any would deny that part of the emotional effect is down to Cliff Morgan’s “evocative” commentary. While I would agree with rugby aficionados that Bill McClaren may have greater claim to being the “voice of rugby”, it was “right” that it was Cliff Morgan was the commentator on that day. Cliff Morgan played his first and last games of senior representative rugby for the Barbarians – the first in 1951 and the last in 1958. He had fond memories of playing both for them and against them: “And in the years between, playing for the Barbarians, or against them for Cardiff over the Easter weekend, touring with them or appearing in their farewell matches for visiting tourists, they gave me many of the most rewarding hours I spent in rugby.” Not only that, but in 1950s Welsh rugby there were two outstanding fly-offs – Cliff Morgan and none other than Carwyn James! Llanelli’s Phil Bennett remembers the rivalry of their respective clubs: “Cardiff were the elite, the establishment club…They were the city slickers and the Llanelli boys always wanted to stuff them. We had Carwyn James at outside-half. They had Cliff Morgan.” For a young Phil Bennett, much as he loved Carwyn James as a player, Cliff Morgan was an even greater inspiration: “Carwyn had been my hero. He was a more crafty player than Cliff, with beautiful hands. But once I saw Cliff Morgan I became aware of how a No. 10 could cut and slice a team to ribbons. I wanted to do the same…Perhaps more than anyone he helped invent the Welsh outside half”. Cliff Morgan and Carwyn Williams started it and Barry John, followed by Phil Bennett continued the trend of outstanding Welsh fly-halves. Like Barry John, who quit rugby when he was 27, Morgan also retired from playing rugby in his late 20s. Morgan went to work for the BBC in 1958 at the age of 28.

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By a twist of fate, he nearly didn’t live long enough to commentate on the Barbarians versus All Blacks game after suffering a stroke commentating on a British Armed Forces rugby match in Germany in March 1972. After regaining consciousness in a Cologne hospital, he found he was at the end of a long hospital ward near to the door. Every day or two, he would be moved closer to the window at the end of the ward. He soon realised his moves were timed with the death of patients who had been closer to the window being wheeled out of the ward. Morgan didn’t die, but the stroke initially left him paralysed down the left side of his body and affected his tongue, making his speech slurred. He began a course of physiotherapy and, critically for a broadcaster, speech therapy. Morgan remembered lessons with a speech therapist: “She taught me how to form my lips and use my tongue, which was paralysed on the left side, to get them round words. She would make me say ‘ah-ey-ee-oo-ah-oo-uh” dozens of times in front of a mirror until I could do it to her satisfaction.” As Morgan recovered, he was moved to private room with a German patient who, thirty years earlier, had worked on farms near Bridgend in Wales as a German POW. Each morning he would wish Morgan “Bore da”, good morning in Welsh. One of Morgan’s friends, the actor Richard Burton, a Welshman with an even more recognisable voice, sent him a letter wishing him well. It read: “Dewch mas o’r le na (Get out of that place). You will need time for recuperation after this ordeal. Have one of our homes in Gstaad, or Pays de Galles in Geneva. Everything will be provided including sticks and coal! Should you need anything as mundane as money, you have only to ask” It was signed “Cofion (Wishes), Richard. With love, Elizabeth” Morgan returned to rugby commentary for the Ireland versus All Blacks game on 20 January 1973. This was just a week before his unforgettable commentary on the unforgettable game between the Barbarians and All Blacks.

Reliving the try itself I can’t remember when I bought the video of the entire match, but since I bought a video and not a DVD, it must have been a decade or so now. Without knowing anything else about the game at the time, what surprised me was how quickly “that try” was scored – Gareth Edwards’ dive for the try line is only about four minutes into the game. As Nigel Starmer-Smith said: “Scarcely had the crowd settled into their seats…” before Cliff Morgan began to describe the move:

This is great stuff…

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It begins with All Blacks’ wing, Bryan Williams kicking the ball deep into Barbarians’ territory, setting the scene for Phil Bennett’s counter-attack. In the book, “Thinking Rugby”, edited by Barbarians’ captain that day, John Dawes, a whole chapter is devoted to the importance of counter-attack. The book acknowledges that the most famous being the one: “…started by Phil Bennett while playing for the Barbarians against the All Blacks in 1973…it was an object lesson in counterattack. The key factors were: 1. The change of possession (Bryan Williams’ kick into the 22-metre area) 2. The imagination of Phil Bennett to launch the counterattack 3. The speed of his sidesteps 4. The immediate support and realignment; four players handled the ball within thirty metres of their own line. 5. Confidence and judgement of all players involved in the movement.”

Phil Bennett covering, chased by Alistair Scowen… brilliant…Oh that’s brilliant!... I’ve speculated that it was the Barbarians’ tradition of attacking play that led Phil Bennett to ignore the safety option of a kick to touch and run at the All Blacks when he collected the ball. However, it is ironic that Gareth Edwards, whose legendary status in the rugby world benefited from being the scorer of this famous try, acknowledges that he was shouting at Phil Bennett to kick the ball out of play: “If it were on Question of Sport and they stopped the frame when Phil Bennett first got the ball running back close to his own line, the query ‘What happened next’ might be hard to answer if you didn’t know…I think my answer would have been, ‘Phil Bennett gets splattered’. That was one reason why I was shouting for Phil to get rid of the ball by kicking it into touch. Now there’s a confession for you; the try some have called the greatest ever scored might never have happened if I’d got my grubby little hands on it at the start of the movement.” I think that the risk taken by Phil Bennett was even more audacious in light of his pre-match nerves and the giant shoes he was stepping into. JPR Williams recalled the advice to Phil Bennett from Carwyn Williams just before the game: “I remember his advice to Phil Bennett, who was in for the now retired Barry John and was fretting about stepping into such distinguished shoes. He said, ‘Phil, just imagine you are at Stradey Park’.”

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One after the other, Bennett side-stepped three All Black attackers, centre Ian Hurst, captain and prop, Ian Kirkpatrick and hooker, Ron Urlich. JPR continued: “…Phil’s scarlet Llanelli socks famously danced away from wouldbe All Black tacklers as if he was indeed playing at home…” Incredibly, as John Dawes watched Phil Bennett’s dancing steps, John Dawes saw the makings of a try although not for Gareth Edwards: “…we also knew that the All Blacks were susceptible to a sidestep and when Benno jinked – as only Benno could jink – to throw off those three New Zealanders I sniffed the chance of a try for John Bevan on the wing.” Later, Dawes also viewed Bennett’s contribution not just to the try, but to the game as a whole, as being one of the key reasons for victory: “…Phil Bennett had the skill and flair to play a Barry John type role at fly-half…” Praise indeed. Picking up Cliff Morgan’s commentary again as Phil Bennett passes the ball outside to JPR Williams.

John Williams… Bryan Williams… In that 1973 match he was still John Williams as the “JPR” monicker had not yet stuck. John Peter Rhys Williams became JPR Williams on the 1974 Lions tour to South Africa in a commentator confounding moment when his team mate John (JJ) Williams passed the ball to John (JPR) Williams and he passed it back to John (JJ) Williams. As he said: “The commentators needed to differentiate between us so, suddenly, I was just JPR. After that, if I signed an autograph ‘John Williams’ small boys would run back looking short-changed: ‘You are JPR, aren’t you? So why haven’t you put JPR then?” Listening to Cliff Morgan’s commentary without the pictures, you would get the sense that John Williams and Bryan Williams are both playing for the same side and that John Williams passed the ball to Bryan Williams. Obviously, Bryan Williams was an All Black and it was his kick which was retrieved by Phil Bennett. However, the sense of continuity in Morgan’s description of the Barbarians move is no doubt helped by the All Black having a Welsh surname - and maybe by the knowledge that there was another well-known Williams (JJ) who played for Wales and the Barbarians during that era as previously mentioned. My distant recollections of watching JPR play on TV when I young are of a man who would unflinchingly catch a high ball with no thought to his own safety, as much bigger opponents closed in on him. This characteristic of his play was widely appreciated. Cliff Morgan described him as:

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“…hard, tough and fearless” And Phil Bennett: “He was certainly the bravest player I ever saw as well as the most deeply determined…his tackling and his fearsome running would demoralise opponents. They knew that to score they had to get past this lunatic in a red shirt” Besides bravery, Phil Bennett’s quote captures the other side of JPR’s character – determination to win at all costs and not just in rugby matches as Bennett remembered: “I once saw JPR and Gareth Edwards play a doubles match in Japan against two very talented members of a well-to-do tennis club in Tokyo in 1975…Gareth was playing because he thought it might be fun. The rest of us went to watch for the same reason. But JPR went there to win…There were forwards sipping beer on the club balcony overlooking the court who thought JPR was insane...” The JPR-Gareth Edwards axis was more complex than just two world class players on the same side as Phil Bennett explained. “Gareth and JPR were two enormous talents with big egos to match… If JPR Williams felt that Gareth was trying to do too much on his own, then a voice would come booming from behind the back line, ‘Tell Edwards there are 14 other players on this field and we might find it easier if he used them.’ In the play running up to Phil Bennett collecting Bryan William’s kick, JPR catches All Black scrum-half Sid Going’s kick and is tackled illegally round the neck. Seconds later, after taking Phil Bennett’s pass, the same thing happens again – this time the culprit is Bryan Williams. Gareth Edwards: “Immediately after Phil’s dancing sidesteps, I remember JPR’s head almost being taken off in a tackle.” John Dawes: …thank goodness the referee let the high tackle on JPR Williams go, or else it (the move) would have been halted way too soon. Nowadays, Bryan Williams would have been sin-binned, no doubt about it.” JPR remembered: “…after Phil’s magical sidesteps, I recall taking a high tackle from my namesake Brian (sic) Williams and then watching as the try unfolded in front of my eyes.” With Bryan Williams’ arms round his neck, JPR unloads the ball one-handed:

Pullin… John Pullin, the hooker, is the only non-Welsh Barbarian to touch the ball during the whole of move. Pullin had played in all four of the Lions’ tests against the All Blacks in 1971. Having played his

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club rugby at Bristol, he is remembered on the club’s website as “one of the greatest of all Bristol players” and: “He was immensely strong, having the natural strength which comes of being a livestock farmer.  Such was the power of his grip that his props regularly came off the field with bruises to their ribs where Pullin had bound so tightly. A quiet and conscientious man, Pullin was very fit through work on the family farm in the shadow of the Severn Bridge, and he supplemented his club training by running to Wales and back over the bridge.” The last comment is notable. We now have Cardiff Arms Park, Phil Bennett, JPR Williams, John Dawes, Tom David, Derek Quinnell, Gareth Edwards, Carwyn James, Cliff Morgan, Bryan Williams’ surname and even John Pullin has a Welsh connection! John Dawes said he asked John Pullin afterwards what he was thinking as he carried the ball. Pullin replied: “I was thinking that if I’d been playing for England I would have kicked it.” As Pullin’s short pass to John Dawes takes out an approaching All Black, you can see Gareth Edwards returning from up field and almost colliding with Pullin. Gareth Edwards, who had shouted to Phil Bennett to kick the ball into touch was bemused by the way the move was unfolding at this point: “…when John Pullin got the ball, I had to make some effort to let those guys come past me. By this time, I was quietly cursing, thinking to myself, ‘What are they doing now?’ But the noise level of the stadium was rising and was lifting the whole stadium, players and spectators. Normally when you play in a major match, you are not aware of the noise down on the ground but I was this time.”

John Dawes…great dummy! Watching the TV coverage, you notice that the standpoint of the viewer suddenly changes from high above pitch level to a camera down on the touch line half way through John Dawes’ run with the ball. On reflection, I think this has both a positive and negative impact for the viewer. The negative aspect is that it makes it harder to appreciate the “great dummy” described by Cliff Morgan. However, it does allow us to sense, albeit briefly, just how fast the move is unfolding. John Dawes was at various times the captain of London Welsh, captain of Wales, captain of the British Lions and, on 27 January 1973, captain of the Barbarians. After just a few games for Bridgend, JPR Williams was chosen for the Welsh squad on a tour of Argentina. I was not surprised to read JPR’s first impressions of Dawes: “…the initial impression he made on a lad barely out of school was of an individual who could command instant respect…That Summer, John helped me immensely and our fireside chats at the

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country club near Buenos Aires proved invaluable in developing my skills and planning my future in rugby…” It was John Dawes who persuaded JPR to switch to London Welsh in club rugby. The strength of John Dawes’ game seems have been his leadership and passing. Cliff Morgan: “Dawes himself in the centre, a marvellous distributor of passes, a real ring-master.” This was JPR William’s balanced assessment of his abilities: “Although he himself did not have great pace or strength he kept the forwards and backs running because of his ability to give and take a pass at speed. In fact, I have never seen a better passer of the ball in that key position.” It was only when John Dawes was sprinting towards the halfway line that Gareth Edwards decided that, being the scrum-half, he really ought to catch up with the play: “By the time I’d turned and was facing downfield, three or four passes had occurred in the movement and play had gone from our line to thirty or forty yards downfield. I knew I had better run hard to catch it up, although there was no thought whatever in my mind that we would score…I suspected the ball would go to ground soon and as I was scrum-half, it was my responsibility to be there close to it…”

David, Tom David…the halfway line… John Dawes passes the ball inside to Tom David in the instant before an All Black, it looks like scrum-half, Sid Going, takes him to ground. Tom David picked the ball up about four metres before the half way line and had carried it 7-8 metres beyond when he’s faced by four All Black defenders. The move could have very easily come to an abrupt end at this point, but for two factors. Firstly, the supporting play of the Barbarians was so impressive. As Tom David prepared to pass the ball there were no fewer than six Barbarians close behind, including Derek Quinell, John Bevan, Fergus Slattery and Willie John McBride. This group didn’t even include Gareth Edwards who was still sprinting hard to catch them up. Secondly, David’s superb one-handed pass as he was brought down. Nigel Starmer-Smith on Tom David’s contribution: “As David was tackled, the Llanelli player’s power and good sense made him a vital link in the chain. He rode the tackle, and, using one arm to push down the defender, clenched the ball in his other large hand and passed around the would-be tackler to Derek Quinnell…” In club rugby, it was Carwyn James who had brought Tom David to Llanelli from Pontypridd using Phil Bennett as the “go-between”. To persuade David to sign for Llanelli, James instructed Phil Bennett to give him an invite to a match at Llanelli. As Bennett explained:

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“Tommy was given the best seat in the house and the full VIP treatment, with a succession of people instructed to shake his hand before kick-off and tell him what a good player he was.” Shortly after the final whistle, with Llanelli the victors, Bennett recalled that: “Carwyn shook Tommy’s hand and told him, ‘We’re (Llanelli) going to beat the All Blacks. Would you like to be part of it?’ Needless to say, Tom was sold”. Back to the move, Gareth Edwards was getting closer to the play: “As Tom David took the ball on following John Dawes’s short burst, I found I was really having to turn up the speed to get near to the movement. This was probably the key to my eventual movement because by the time I was just getting close to where the play was, I was sprinting flat out.”

Brilliant by Quinnell! Derek Quinnell had to stoop in order to catch Tom David’s pass, but what I really like about Quinnell’s contribution is his lack of selfishness. Having kept up with the move, Quinnell only has the ball in his possession for about five strides before passing it. While he was in no immediate risk of being tackled, he surely recognised that the ball was better off in the hands of a faster runner. When Derek Quinell was ready to pass the ball outside, there were two alternatives - wing John Bevan, and Gareth Edwards. The interesting question is which one of them was the intended recipient of his pass? In John Dawes’ view: “Indeed, the final pass – from Derek Quinell – was not intended for Gareth Edwards…”

This is Gareth Edwards! A dramatic start…What a score… Gareth Edwards describes taking Quinnell’s pass as “almost like an intereception” and it was fitting that he was calling for the ball off Quinnell in Welsh: “When I caught the ball, it was almost like an interception because I knew John Bevan was waiting outside me and Joe Karam was sizing him up. So I shouted to Derek Quinnell in Welsh ‘Throw it here’. I still remember the thrill, the surge of adrenalin as I took the pass and hit the gain line before sweeping around Karam.” In JPR Williams’ view, whoever the Barbarians would not have scored if Gareth Edwards had not caught the pass: “Gareth was behind me when it all started but he soon sped past like a train…If Derek Quinnell had given the ball to John Bevan on the wing, then we would not have scored because we needed Gareth’s momentum.”

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JPR is correct, it was Edwards’ momentum which took him clear of the three remaining All Black defenders – the full-back Joe Karam missed the tackle, centre Bruce Robertson was out sprinted and wing Grant Batty, who came diagonally across the field, was just too late as Edwards dived over the line. Gareth Edwards on the dive: “Whether there was time for me to run the last few yards to the line, I wouldn’t know even now. The reason I dived was that I remembered something Bill Samuel had taught me at school, years earlier. See what I mean about strange, unexpected thoughts going through your mind at such moments? Bill said that when you dive for the line, it makes it more difficult for the defending side to stop you.” And on watching the try replayed: “Even after all these years, I’m never quite sure whether I’m going to get there each time!” Nigel Starmer-Smith captured the crowd’s reaction: “The crescendo of noise that had built up from Bennett’s inspired counter-attack finally broke into thunderous and uninhibited applause and ecstatic shouts…”

Oh that fellow Edwards! There is gap of fully ten seconds between Gareth Edwards touching the ball down for the try and Cliff Morgan’s next comment above. It’s as if Morgan is so stunned by what’s happened that he can’t think of the words at first. The TV pictures cut from Edwards picking himself up and jogging back towards the half way line, to thousands of cheering supporters and back to Edwards, who gets a remarkably low-key handshake from his captain John Dawes. Dawes joked: “I’ve always told Gareth he should have gone under the posts, though.” Years later, Cliff Morgan gave his opinion of “that fellow Edwards”: “I’ve always said that of all the players I’ve known during the fiftyodd years of involvement with the game, regardless of where they came from or where they played on the field, Edwards stood out head and shoulders above the rest.” Despite their occasional clash of egos, JPR Williams backed this up: “Gareth Edwards – simply the best of all time.” In 2003, Gareth Edwards was voted the greatest rugby union player of all time in a poll of its readers by Rugby World magazine. Cliff Morgan soon recovered his composure and was able to find the words to put what had just happened into some kind of context.

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If the greatest writer of the written word had written that story, no one would have believed it. Unlike the commentator, the players still didn’t appreciate the enormity of what had taken place as Gareth Edwards explained: “All I could take on board at that stage was that we had scored a try from one end of the field to the other in the first four minutes.” JPR Williams feelings were similar: “It was certainly a good try and we were pleased with it at the time, but we had no idea how we would all dine out on it for years afterwards!”

Still 76 minutes to go! Incredible as it might seem, the remaining 76 minutes of the game were not an anti-climax. John Dawes: “Fans, young and old, will always remember that match for that try, but there were 76 minutes of classic rugby to come in a game that was the best I ever played in.” Recalling Gareth Edwards comments about the disastrous preparations before the game and “dropped passes all over the place”, it was amazing how well it came together on the day. Dawes again: “…I was part of a threequarter line which never dropped a pass all afternoon. No fumbles, no stray passes, no knock-ons.” The Barbarians scored two more tries in the first half and led 17-0 at the half. One of the tries was scored by an Irishman, Fergus Slattery, before normal service resumed and Welsh wing, John Bevan, who was on the end of a move which saw Derek Quinell link with John Dawes. Nigel Starmer-Smith: “Such a miracle beginning only served to inspire and give confidence to the Barbarians, who produced a first half of unqualified magnificence.” Any Barbarians fan expecting the All Blacks to be annihilated in the second half was disappointed as they came back strongly. A penalty after the restart was followed by two tries from Grant Batty and the score was 17-11. All of a sudden, the All Blacks were back in it and one more converted try (6 points back then) would have seen them draw level. John Dawes: “They could have won it, too, had Kirkpatrick, of all people, not dropped the ball over the line with it finely poised at 17-11.” When the momentum of the game looked like it had turned against the Barbarians they came back with a try that might even have a claim to being the second best of all time. This one, scored by JPR Williams, even had something which Gareth Edwards’ miracle try didn’t – in the ninety seconds leading up to JPR touching down for

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the try, every man on the Barbarians team handled the ball. You can see the JPR Williams’ try here. This try saw the counter-attack launched by English winger, David Duckham, who side-stepped (or generally avoided!) about five All Black opponents, before he was tackled. Quinell picked up the ball and fed John Dawes who passed to JPR Williams, then Irish centre Mike Gibson, followed by his fellow countryman Fergus Slattery who made the final pass to JPR. The latter remembered: “At the end, we found ourselves needing one last try and I was fortunate to be the man who scored it. Once again, a New Zealand winger, this time Grant Batty, tried to take my head off physically and mentally.” Phil Bennett added the two points for what was a very difficult conversion and the game finished with the Barbarians the victors by 23-11. Nigel Starmer-Smith: “A kick worthy of the try that brought it was the dream-like ending to an unforgettable game of rugby. The crowd, still singing and applauding, enveloped the pitch and continued to hail their heroes long after the last of them had fought their way through to the dressing-rooms.” JPR again: “…what struck me most about the game was how the players obviously relished being there. They were playing rugby in the way that they wanted to and, despite there being a great deal of honour and pride at stake, this did not have any negative impact on the style of play.” John Dawes reflected on an amazing match: “It was a tremendously enjoyable game to play in with both sides playing quality, not carefree rugby. The All Blacks’ contribution was excellent and their pressure at the start of the second half needed the sternest defence…there was the ability of the side to “hang-on” in the period immediately after half time when we were subjected to a great deal of pressure. Although the game will be remembered for the unrelenting sequence of attack and counterattack, one of the most significant factors in the match, and one which was similarly a cornerstone in building the success of the 1971 Lions, was the team’s ability to withstand remorseless All Black pressure, absorb it and then fight back.” The final word from Gareth Edwards: “I have to admit I remain astonished by the level of interest in the game. In March 1999, twenty six years after that game of rugby, I stood up to speak at a function in Leicester, having been introduced to warm and generous applause as ‘The man who scored that fabulous try for the Barbarians’. A few weeks earlier, I had attended a business conference in Hampshire and had no

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sooner walked into the room than complete strangers were coming up to me and saying ‘Gareth, tell us about that try’. They didn’t mean the kick and chase effort against Scotland at the Arms Park when I ended up covered in the red shale…They weren’t referring to the one I scored against against Ireland at Cardiff in 1973, when we needed a score to squeeze home by 16 points to 12; nor where they asking about any I managed for the British Lions in 1968, 1971 or 1974. It was just that try, and that match.”

Sources: BB Barry John, The Barry John Story – An Autobiography, 1974 BB BBC TV Commentary BB Cliff Morgan, The Autobiography – Beyond the Fields of Play, 1996 BB Gareth Edwards, The Autobiography, 1999 BB John Dawes (Editor), Thinking Rugby, 1979 BB JPR Williams, JPR – Given the Breaks – My Life in Rugby, 2006 BB Nigel Starmer-Smith, The Barbarians, 1977 BB Phil Bennett, The Autobiography, 2003 BB The Independent, Why has rugby shortchanged the Barbarian legends of ’73?, Chris Hewett, 2004 BB Willie John McBride, Willie John, 1976

Author: I started work the month before the stock market crash in 1987. I’ve worked mainly as an analyst covering the Metals & Mining, Oil & Gas and Chemicals industries for a number of brokers and banks including S.G. Warburg (now UBS), Credit Lyonnais, JP Morgan Chase, Schroders (became Citibank) and, latterly, at the soon to be mighty Redburn Partners. Charts: Thanks to barchart.com, LME, timingcharts.com, kitco. com, kitcometals.com. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this report are my own and are for information only. It is not intended as an offer, invitation or soliciation to buy or sell any of the securities or assets described herein. I do not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document or its contents. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investments. The information in this report is believed to be reliable, but I do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness. I have long positions in gold and silver and network infrastructure stocks, including EZchip Semiconductor, mentioned in this report.

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