Intermarket Analysis
This document was uploaded by user and they confirmed that they have the permission to share it. If you are author or own the copyright of this book, please report to us by using this DMCA report form. Report DMCA
Overview
Download & View Intermarket Analysis as PDF for free.
More details
- Words: 1,125
- Pages: 21
Intermarket Analysis – 22nd September ‘09
Agenda Intermarket Analysis Currency markets US credit Markets Commodity markets Equity Markets
2
Currency Markets
USD downtrend nears termination
USD Index is in the final leg of the current downtrend Although index is still in a downtrend, we believe last weeks price move is pointing to a reversal if the index trades above 78.5 and 81.4 subsequently for a move to levels of 88 - 90
Three push divergence US DOLLAR INDEX CONTINUOUS [FINEX] (76.7500, 77.3350, 76.7000, 77.0000, +0.33000)
91 90 89 88 87 86 85 84 83 82 81 80 79 78 77 76
Three push divergence shifts focus to possibility of a reversal
75 74 73 72 71
Relative Strength Index (41.0042) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Stochastic Oscillator (14.3077)
50
July
August
September
October
November
December
2009
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
EURUSD USDEUR - EURODOLLAR (1.46880, 1.47130, 1.46060, 1.46740, -0.00330) 1.60
1.55
Euro is expected to weaken from current levels of 1.4730
1.50
1.45
1.40
1.35
1.30
1.25
Relative Strength Index (66.7185)
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2009
February
80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
GBP at crucial support USDGBP - UK POUND STERLING (1.62160, 1.62640, 1.61320, 1.62100, -0.00600)
1.90 1.89 1.88 1.87 1.86 1.85 1.84 1.83 1.82 1.81 1.80 1.79 1.78 1.77 1.76 1.75 1.74 1.73 1.72 1.71 1.70 1.69 1.68 1.67 1.66 1.65 1.64 1.63 1.62 1.61 1.60 1.59 1.58 1.57 1.56 1.55 1.54 1.53 1.52 1.51 1.50 1.49 1.48 1.47 1.46 1.45 1.44 1.43 1.42 1.41 1.40 1.39 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.34 1.33 1.32 1.31
GBP below 1.60 will make USD reversal case even stronger
27
3 10 17 November
24
1 8 15 December
22
29
5 12 2009
19
26
2 9 16 February
23
2 9 March
16
23
30 6 April
13
20
27
4 11 May
18
25
1 8 June
15
22
29 6 July
13
20
27
3 10 August
17
24
31 7 14 September
21
28
5 October
Commodity Markets
September Gold Breakouts GOLD [CASH] (1,004.45, 1,006.60, 995.500, 1,002.55, -3.60004)
1150 1100 1050 1000
Gold remains bullish as it has broken out of consolidation
950 900
September breakouts have played out well in gold
2009
850 800 750 700 650
2007
600 550
500
450
400
2005 350
300
2002 250
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Gold – Bullish against 970 1060 1050 1040 1030 1020 1010 1000 990 980 970 960 950 940 930 920
GOLD [CASH] (1,004.45, 1,006.60, 995.500, 1,002.55, -3.60004)
Support @$970
910 900 890 880 870 860 850 840 830 820 810 800 790 780 770 760 750 740 730 720 710 700 690 680 670 660 July
August
September
October
November
December
2009
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
Crude oil: consolidation to give way to a trend LIGHT CRUDE CONTINUOUS 1000 BARRELS [NYMEX] (71.7800, 72.2000, 68.9600, 69.7100, -2.33000) 150
100.0%
140
Crude oil has traced out an ascending triangle For itself, probability of a breakdown looks higher
130
120
A break below $68 and then below $65 will confirm a downtrend to $50
110
61.8% 100
50.0%
90
80
38.2% 70
23.6%
60
50
40
0.0% 30
March
April
May
June
July
August
September October
November December
2009
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September October
Natural gas turns in September again 19 18 17
NATURAL GAS CONTINUOUS 10000 MMBTU [NYMEX] (3.72200, 3.79700, 3.53200, 3.57600, -0.20200)
16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7
6
5
4
September turn in natural gas shifts focus to a possible reversal developing
3
Natgas might already have formed a bottom for 2009 2
2000 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Copper uptrend nears completion HG COPPER CONTINUOUS 25000 LBS [COMEX] (2.78350, 2.83150, 2.75050, 2.80550, +0.02050) 4.5
100.0% 4.0
3.5
5?
61.8%
3.0
50.0%
2.5
38.2%
3 4
23.6%
2.0
1
Copper prices might form termination of current upmove
1.5
Look for confirmation and a fall to 2.20 if price trades below 2.70 for Commex active month contract
2
0.0%
2007
November
2008
February
April
May
June
July
August
September
November
2009
February
April
May
June
July
August
September
US Credit Markets
US 30 YR about to breakout US TREASURY BONDS 30YRS - CONTINOUS [CBT] (120.844, 121.250, 120.562, 120.969, +0.28100)
145 144 143 142 141 140 139 138 137 136 135 134 133 132 131 130 129 128 127 126 125 124 123 122 121 120 119 118 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110
August
September
October
November
December
2009
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
High Yields undeperforms the risk appetite
Bond markets are not confirming the new highs being formed in US equity markets
Equity Markets
DJIA – Support @ 9200 DOW JONES INDL AVG (DJIA) (9,818.61, 9,818.69, 9,725.88, 9,778.86, -41.3398)
14500 14000
2
13500 13000 12500
ii
12000
1
11500 11000
i 10500
B or 2
9794
j
10000
iv 9500
4 A
9000
8500
B
8000
iii v
7500
3
7000
6500
5
A or 1 November
2008
February March
April
May
June
July
August
September
November
2009
February March
April
May
June
July
August
September
S&P 500 approaches major turn date S&P 500 INDEX (1,067.14, 1,067.28, 1,057.46, 1,064.66, -3.64001) 1600 1550 1500 1450 1400 1350 1300
22 September 09 nd
1250 1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 950
900
850
800
750
700
650
November
2008
February March
April
May
June
July
August
September
November
2009
February March
April
May
June
July
August
September
Nikkei 225 NIKKEI 225 INDEX (10,379.20, 10,399 .40, 10,292.50, 10,370.50, -73.2998) 14000
13500
13000
12500
12000
11500
11000
10500
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
7000
6500 July
Augu st
September
October
November
Decem ber
2009
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
Septem ber
October
In Summary USD index is in a process of forming a bottom. Last week price action points to the possibility of a bottom if the index trades above 78.5 Commodity prices are not confirming the rise in risk appetite as industrial metals continue to remain at brink of important support levels Gold might give a major breakout trade if it continues to trade above $1000 this week, we remain bullish against $970 in the short term Bond markets are consolidating before a major move. US 30 year bond price is expected to rise to 124 although long term trend in still down A strong blowout rally can be expected if USD turns down to support levels of 74 and below which might lead to marginal new highs in equity and some commodity markets
Agenda Intermarket Analysis Currency markets US credit Markets Commodity markets Equity Markets
2
Currency Markets
USD downtrend nears termination
USD Index is in the final leg of the current downtrend Although index is still in a downtrend, we believe last weeks price move is pointing to a reversal if the index trades above 78.5 and 81.4 subsequently for a move to levels of 88 - 90
Three push divergence US DOLLAR INDEX CONTINUOUS [FINEX] (76.7500, 77.3350, 76.7000, 77.0000, +0.33000)
91 90 89 88 87 86 85 84 83 82 81 80 79 78 77 76
Three push divergence shifts focus to possibility of a reversal
75 74 73 72 71
Relative Strength Index (41.0042) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Stochastic Oscillator (14.3077)
50
July
August
September
October
November
December
2009
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
EURUSD USDEUR - EURODOLLAR (1.46880, 1.47130, 1.46060, 1.46740, -0.00330) 1.60
1.55
Euro is expected to weaken from current levels of 1.4730
1.50
1.45
1.40
1.35
1.30
1.25
Relative Strength Index (66.7185)
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2009
February
80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
GBP at crucial support USDGBP - UK POUND STERLING (1.62160, 1.62640, 1.61320, 1.62100, -0.00600)
1.90 1.89 1.88 1.87 1.86 1.85 1.84 1.83 1.82 1.81 1.80 1.79 1.78 1.77 1.76 1.75 1.74 1.73 1.72 1.71 1.70 1.69 1.68 1.67 1.66 1.65 1.64 1.63 1.62 1.61 1.60 1.59 1.58 1.57 1.56 1.55 1.54 1.53 1.52 1.51 1.50 1.49 1.48 1.47 1.46 1.45 1.44 1.43 1.42 1.41 1.40 1.39 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.34 1.33 1.32 1.31
GBP below 1.60 will make USD reversal case even stronger
27
3 10 17 November
24
1 8 15 December
22
29
5 12 2009
19
26
2 9 16 February
23
2 9 March
16
23
30 6 April
13
20
27
4 11 May
18
25
1 8 June
15
22
29 6 July
13
20
27
3 10 August
17
24
31 7 14 September
21
28
5 October
Commodity Markets
September Gold Breakouts GOLD [CASH] (1,004.45, 1,006.60, 995.500, 1,002.55, -3.60004)
1150 1100 1050 1000
Gold remains bullish as it has broken out of consolidation
950 900
September breakouts have played out well in gold
2009
850 800 750 700 650
2007
600 550
500
450
400
2005 350
300
2002 250
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Gold – Bullish against 970 1060 1050 1040 1030 1020 1010 1000 990 980 970 960 950 940 930 920
GOLD [CASH] (1,004.45, 1,006.60, 995.500, 1,002.55, -3.60004)
Support @$970
910 900 890 880 870 860 850 840 830 820 810 800 790 780 770 760 750 740 730 720 710 700 690 680 670 660 July
August
September
October
November
December
2009
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
Crude oil: consolidation to give way to a trend LIGHT CRUDE CONTINUOUS 1000 BARRELS [NYMEX] (71.7800, 72.2000, 68.9600, 69.7100, -2.33000) 150
100.0%
140
Crude oil has traced out an ascending triangle For itself, probability of a breakdown looks higher
130
120
A break below $68 and then below $65 will confirm a downtrend to $50
110
61.8% 100
50.0%
90
80
38.2% 70
23.6%
60
50
40
0.0% 30
March
April
May
June
July
August
September October
November December
2009
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September October
Natural gas turns in September again 19 18 17
NATURAL GAS CONTINUOUS 10000 MMBTU [NYMEX] (3.72200, 3.79700, 3.53200, 3.57600, -0.20200)
16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7
6
5
4
September turn in natural gas shifts focus to a possible reversal developing
3
Natgas might already have formed a bottom for 2009 2
2000 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Copper uptrend nears completion HG COPPER CONTINUOUS 25000 LBS [COMEX] (2.78350, 2.83150, 2.75050, 2.80550, +0.02050) 4.5
100.0% 4.0
3.5
5?
61.8%
3.0
50.0%
2.5
38.2%
3 4
23.6%
2.0
1
Copper prices might form termination of current upmove
1.5
Look for confirmation and a fall to 2.20 if price trades below 2.70 for Commex active month contract
2
0.0%
2007
November
2008
February
April
May
June
July
August
September
November
2009
February
April
May
June
July
August
September
US Credit Markets
US 30 YR about to breakout US TREASURY BONDS 30YRS - CONTINOUS [CBT] (120.844, 121.250, 120.562, 120.969, +0.28100)
145 144 143 142 141 140 139 138 137 136 135 134 133 132 131 130 129 128 127 126 125 124 123 122 121 120 119 118 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110
August
September
October
November
December
2009
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
High Yields undeperforms the risk appetite
Bond markets are not confirming the new highs being formed in US equity markets
Equity Markets
DJIA – Support @ 9200 DOW JONES INDL AVG (DJIA) (9,818.61, 9,818.69, 9,725.88, 9,778.86, -41.3398)
14500 14000
2
13500 13000 12500
ii
12000
1
11500 11000
i 10500
B or 2
9794
j
10000
iv 9500
4 A
9000
8500
B
8000
iii v
7500
3
7000
6500
5
A or 1 November
2008
February March
April
May
June
July
August
September
November
2009
February March
April
May
June
July
August
September
S&P 500 approaches major turn date S&P 500 INDEX (1,067.14, 1,067.28, 1,057.46, 1,064.66, -3.64001) 1600 1550 1500 1450 1400 1350 1300
22 September 09 nd
1250 1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 950
900
850
800
750
700
650
November
2008
February March
April
May
June
July
August
September
November
2009
February March
April
May
June
July
August
September
Nikkei 225 NIKKEI 225 INDEX (10,379.20, 10,399 .40, 10,292.50, 10,370.50, -73.2998) 14000
13500
13000
12500
12000
11500
11000
10500
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
7000
6500 July
Augu st
September
October
November
Decem ber
2009
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
Septem ber
October
In Summary USD index is in a process of forming a bottom. Last week price action points to the possibility of a bottom if the index trades above 78.5 Commodity prices are not confirming the rise in risk appetite as industrial metals continue to remain at brink of important support levels Gold might give a major breakout trade if it continues to trade above $1000 this week, we remain bullish against $970 in the short term Bond markets are consolidating before a major move. US 30 year bond price is expected to rise to 124 although long term trend in still down A strong blowout rally can be expected if USD turns down to support levels of 74 and below which might lead to marginal new highs in equity and some commodity markets
Related Documents
Intermarket Analysis
June 2020 0
Analysis
November 2019 36
Analysis
June 2020 31
Analysis
October 2019 38
Analysis
October 2019 30More Documents from ""