India Vision 2050
This document was uploaded by user and they confirmed that they have the permission to share it. If you are author or own the copyright of this book, please report to us by using this DMCA report form. Report DMCA
Overview
Download & View India Vision 2050 as PDF for free.
More details
- Words: 1,727
- Pages: 7
Sustainable Development for a Low-Carbon Society Analysis for India P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India Presented By: Vaibhav Chaturvedi Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India Presentation at ICSS 2009 Tokyo, February 5-7, 2009
Sustainable Development and Climate Change •Development paths underpin the baseline and stabilization scenarios •Three aspects of Sustainable Development •Economic: includes cost and overall welfare across various sectors •Environmental: includes linkages with the local issues like air, water, land and biodiversity •Social: includes issues like gender, equity, governance, education and health
•Climate change through sustainable development lens “For a development path to be sustainable over a long period, wealth, resources, and opportunity must be shared so that all citizens have access to minimum standards of security, human rights, and social benefits, such as food, health, education, shelter, and opportunity for self-development “ (Reed, 1996 as quoted in the IV Assessment Report, IPCC, 2007)
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Analytical Framework Integrated Modelling Framework DATABASES Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints
India Base Case: 2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
ANSWER-MARKAL Model
AIM SNAPSHOT Model
AIM Strategic Database (SDB)
End Use Demand Model
AIM CGE Model
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
1
Base Scenario Assumptions
India: Demographic Transition Population (Million) 1600
1449 1183
1950
Age
Growth Rate
2.22%
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
80 80
40 40
20 20
0
20 20
4040
6060
8080
Labor Force (Million)
Year: 2050
5 0
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2005-50: 7.3% Annual Growth Rate 2005-32: 8%
915
800
Female
Male
0.70%
M ale
2.54%
Growth Rate 2.74%
18-62 Yrs
Age
Age
15 - 60 years
360 210
Female
1.46%
595 600
400
Base Year 2005=1
795
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Per Capita Income
12000
25
1000
200
Pop: 1593 Million
32
24.6
10
4. 4.7 W/m2 Radiative Forcing
Po p u la t io n ( millio n) Population (Million)
22.8
15
3. 650 ppmv CO2e Concentration Stabilization (or 550 CO2) 60 60
20.6
20
• 2000: 1021 Million • 2050: 1593 Million
Female
M ale
Age
2.15%
25
37
33.0
30
2. Population
10000
20
US $/person
0
555 358
Female
Male
35.0
35
• Ann. Growth Rate: 7.2% from 2005-50 • 2050 Economy: 23 times larger than 2005
0.47%
15 - 60 years
800
1593
1.67%
??
40
18-62 Yrs
849
Savings Rate
Base Scenario
Pop: 1021 Million
1. GDP
1.02%
1200
400
Year: 2000
15
10
8000 6000 4000
133 2.30%
0 1950
2000
5 80 80
1970
1990
2010
2030
60 60
40 40
20 20
00
20 20
40 40
60 60
8080
Population (Million)
2050
P opul at i on (m il li on)
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
0 2005
0 2020
2035
2050
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Energy and Carbon: Base Case Assumptions From 2005-2050: Annual Economic Growth: 7.2% Annual Population Growth: 0.9%
M toe
2,500 2,000
Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Coal Commercial Biomass Non Com Biomass
8,000
Energy
7,000
1,500 1,000 500 0 2005
Carbon Emissions
6,000
Million Ton CO2
3,500 3,000
Increase in 2050 over 2005 Economy 23 times Population 1.56 times
5,000 4,000
Modeling Alternate Visions of Sustainable Low Carbon Society
3,000 2,000 1,000
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Results: Energy and Carbon Intensity Annual Improvement From 2005-2050: Energy Intensity: 3.14 (%) Carbon Intensity: 3.07 (%) Decarbonization of Energy: -0.07 (%) Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Direct Investment in Energy Projects: 2010-30: US$ 1.2 Trillion 2030-50: US$ 2.3 Trillion Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
2
Alternate Development Visions
Vision I: Managing Climate via Conventional Path
Stabilization Target and Visions
1. Top-down/Supply-side actions
1. Global Stabilization Target Assumption:
2. High Carbon Price as main instrument
• 550 ppmv CO2e Concentration
3. Climate Focused Technology Push
• 3.4 W/m2 • @ 3o C temperature increase (50:50)
7,000 Others
Cumulative Mitigation:62.6 Billion Ton CO2
2. Two Development Pathways for India: Million Ton CO2
(with same total CO2 emissions from 2005 to 2050)
1. Conventional Vision: Climate Actions at Margin of Conventional Development path 2. ‘Sustainability’ Vision: Aligning Climate Actions with Mainstream Development Actions
Vision II: 1. 2. 3. 4.
Renewable Energy
5,000
CCS
4,000 Electricity Fuel Switch
3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000
What path shall best deliver national development goals while fulfilling Climate Commitments? Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Device Efficiency
6,000
Carbon Tax $/tCO2
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
7
22
40
67
100
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Managing Climate via Sustainable Path
Energy Technology Mix in 2050
Low Carbon Price Bottom-up/Demand-side Actions Behavioural Change Diverse Technology Portfolio
1,200 Base Case Conventional Dev. + Tax
1,000
Sustainability
800
Total Energy Demand
Share of Renewable
Base
3004 Mtoe
Base
24 %
C+T Sust.
2945 Mtoe 2004 Mtoe
C+T Sust.
34 % 47 %
200
e ab l
as s
ew en R
Bi
1,000
om
ar le uc N
H yd ro
G as
Electricity (Fuel Switch)
C
2,000
400
O il
3,000
600
l
5,000
4,000
Urban Planning Consumption Recycling Material Substitutions Appliance Efficiency Renewable Energy Building
oa
Million Ton CO2
6,000
Others CCS Transport Mode
Mtoe
7,000
0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
3
Energy and Carbon Intensities
CO2 Mitigation: Global and India
Energy and Carbon Intensities 50
CO2 Emissions: Global and India 50
7
Base CI CT CI
6
LCS CI 40
Carbon Intensities (CI)
30
30
20
20
10
10
Energy Intensities (EI) 0 2000
2010
Index 2000 =1
5 CI (tCO2/Million INR)
EI (toe/Million INR)
Base Case assumes global 650 ppmv CO2e stabilization
40
India Base Case 4 India Carbon Tax (550 ppmv CO2e)
3
2
Global Base Case
1
550 ppmv CO2e
0
2020
2030
0 2050
2040
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
CO2 Emissions & Price Trajectories CO2 Price 120
Modeling for Sustainability Vision:
Price CO2 (US $/tCO2)
100
80
• Restructure Private and Public Choices and Behavior • Focus on Long-term Drivers for Bifurcation • Aligning long-term market signals for co-benefits • Multiple Instruments
Conventional Society
60
40 Sustainable Society 20 Base Case 0 2010
2020
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
2030
2040
2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
4
Urban Choices
Choice of Automobiles Rush Hour Traffic in India
Rising Incomes and Small Cars
• Land-use Planning
• Infrastructures
• Building Choices
• Service Networks
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Tata Nano: $2500
QQ: $4000
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Choice of Transport modes
Dematerialization
Bus Rapid Transport System 700
1000
Steel
Cement
Steel
Technologies for Train Corridors
600
400
Demand (Million Ton)
Demand (Million (Million Ton) Ton) Demand
800 500 Conventional Development 300 200 Sustainable 100 0 2000 2000
Society 2010 2010
40
2020 2020
2030 2030
2040 2040
600
Development
400 Sustainable Society
200
0 2000
2050 2050
Conventional
2010
2020
Conventional Development
15 10 Sustainable 0 2000
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Demand (Trillion Lumen hrs)
Demand (Million Ton)
25
5
Society 2010
2020
2030
2050
Lighting
30
20
2040
3000
Paper
35
Public Transport: Metro Rail
2030
2040
2050
2000 Conventional Development Sustainable
1000
Society
0 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
5
Co-benefits of Alternate Choices Co-benefits: SO2 Emissions 14 Base Case 12
Conventional Path + High Carbon Price
10
Million tSO2
Co-benefits of LCS Transition through Sustainable Development
8
6
Sustainable Development + Low Carbon Tax
4
2 0 2000
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Co-benefits of Regional Co-operation MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability
CoCo-benefits of SouthSouth-Asia Integrated EnergyEnergy-Water Market Benefit (Saving)
$ Billion
% GDP
Cumulative from 2010 to 2030 Energy
60 Exa Joule
321
0.87
CO2 Equiv.
5.1 Billion Ton
28
0.08
SO2
50 Million Ton
10
0.03
359
0.98
Total Uzbekistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan
!.
Afghanistan !.
Iran
China
Delaram !.
Kandhar
!.
Quetta
Pakistan !.
South-Pars !.
Bandar-e-Abbas
!.
Iranshahar
!.
!.
Nangal Ludhiana BathindaSangrurAmbala Multan Sonipat Delhi Faridabad
Bareilly
Khuzdar
!.
United Arab Emirates
Saudi Arabia Oman
Legend Yemen
Somalia
¨
• More Water for Food Production (MDG1)
Nepal
Shahjahanpur Gwalior
Bahrain Qatar
Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits
Herat
Kota VijaypurGuna
Karachi
Mahesana Ujjain Kalol Nadiad AnandJhabua Rajkot Chotila Bharuch OlpadSurat
Dispur Patna Gaya
• 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7)
Bangladesh India
Ñ ºÑ º Dadra
Kolkata
Myanmar (Burma)
Valsad
Laos
Panvel Pune
Vishakhapattnam Important Places Solapur ChiptunGuhagar Ratnagiri Kokinada Ñ Existing Gas Pipelines Vijaywada ¨ º Gas Pipelines under construction Gadag Nellore Proposed Gas Pipelines Palmaner Chennai MangaloreHassan Existing LNG terminals Chittoor F Bangalore Proposed LNG terminals Coimbatore Tiruchchirappalli Existing Gas Basin Kochi FKayankulamTutikorin Proposed Gas Basin
Thailand
• Flood control (MDG1&7) • Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries (MDG1)
Sri Lanka Maldives
An Alternate Scenario Storyline and Modeling Framework
Bhutan
Auraiya Kanpur Jagdishpuri
Jhansi
Conclusions:
Indonesia
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Malaysia
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
6
Sustainable Low Carbon Development
Conclusions: Modeling LCS with Sustainability • Changing Behavior and Technology RD&D/ Transfer are key to LCS transition
Aim
Interventions
Drivers
Targets
• Moving from Margin to Mainstream – Development vision matters to LCS transition
Technological Innovations
Social/Institutional Management
Low Carbon Society
National Socio-economic Objectives and Targets
Win/Win Options Shared Costs/Risks Long-term Vision Avoid Lock-ins
Sustainability
Modify Preferences
Back-casting Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
• ‘Paradigm Shift towards ‘Co-benefits’ and ‘Co-operation’: – Modeling policy myopia, coordination failures, information asymmetry with focus on moving to efficient frontier and pushing the frontier
Aligning Markets Co-benefits
– Managing climate change at the margin is costly, risky, and unsustainable
Global Climate Change Objectives and Targets
– Modeling to gain co-benefits as a positive-sum game (shift modeling focus to cooperation rather than competition) – Focus on Drivers of Long-term Energy and Environment Future
• Even under LCS transition through sustainability, exclusive climate-centric actions for stabilization and adaptation will be needed, but their costs and risks shall be much lower
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
COMMENTS !
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
7
Sustainable Development and Climate Change •Development paths underpin the baseline and stabilization scenarios •Three aspects of Sustainable Development •Economic: includes cost and overall welfare across various sectors •Environmental: includes linkages with the local issues like air, water, land and biodiversity •Social: includes issues like gender, equity, governance, education and health
•Climate change through sustainable development lens “For a development path to be sustainable over a long period, wealth, resources, and opportunity must be shared so that all citizens have access to minimum standards of security, human rights, and social benefits, such as food, health, education, shelter, and opportunity for self-development “ (Reed, 1996 as quoted in the IV Assessment Report, IPCC, 2007)
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Analytical Framework Integrated Modelling Framework DATABASES Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints
India Base Case: 2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
ANSWER-MARKAL Model
AIM SNAPSHOT Model
AIM Strategic Database (SDB)
End Use Demand Model
AIM CGE Model
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
1
Base Scenario Assumptions
India: Demographic Transition Population (Million) 1600
1449 1183
1950
Age
Growth Rate
2.22%
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
80 80
40 40
20 20
0
20 20
4040
6060
8080
Labor Force (Million)
Year: 2050
5 0
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2005-50: 7.3% Annual Growth Rate 2005-32: 8%
915
800
Female
Male
0.70%
M ale
2.54%
Growth Rate 2.74%
18-62 Yrs
Age
Age
15 - 60 years
360 210
Female
1.46%
595 600
400
Base Year 2005=1
795
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Per Capita Income
12000
25
1000
200
Pop: 1593 Million
32
24.6
10
4. 4.7 W/m2 Radiative Forcing
Po p u la t io n ( millio n) Population (Million)
22.8
15
3. 650 ppmv CO2e Concentration Stabilization (or 550 CO2) 60 60
20.6
20
• 2000: 1021 Million • 2050: 1593 Million
Female
M ale
Age
2.15%
25
37
33.0
30
2. Population
10000
20
US $/person
0
555 358
Female
Male
35.0
35
• Ann. Growth Rate: 7.2% from 2005-50 • 2050 Economy: 23 times larger than 2005
0.47%
15 - 60 years
800
1593
1.67%
??
40
18-62 Yrs
849
Savings Rate
Base Scenario
Pop: 1021 Million
1. GDP
1.02%
1200
400
Year: 2000
15
10
8000 6000 4000
133 2.30%
0 1950
2000
5 80 80
1970
1990
2010
2030
60 60
40 40
20 20
00
20 20
40 40
60 60
8080
Population (Million)
2050
P opul at i on (m il li on)
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
0 2005
0 2020
2035
2050
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Energy and Carbon: Base Case Assumptions From 2005-2050: Annual Economic Growth: 7.2% Annual Population Growth: 0.9%
M toe
2,500 2,000
Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Coal Commercial Biomass Non Com Biomass
8,000
Energy
7,000
1,500 1,000 500 0 2005
Carbon Emissions
6,000
Million Ton CO2
3,500 3,000
Increase in 2050 over 2005 Economy 23 times Population 1.56 times
5,000 4,000
Modeling Alternate Visions of Sustainable Low Carbon Society
3,000 2,000 1,000
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Results: Energy and Carbon Intensity Annual Improvement From 2005-2050: Energy Intensity: 3.14 (%) Carbon Intensity: 3.07 (%) Decarbonization of Energy: -0.07 (%) Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Direct Investment in Energy Projects: 2010-30: US$ 1.2 Trillion 2030-50: US$ 2.3 Trillion Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
2
Alternate Development Visions
Vision I: Managing Climate via Conventional Path
Stabilization Target and Visions
1. Top-down/Supply-side actions
1. Global Stabilization Target Assumption:
2. High Carbon Price as main instrument
• 550 ppmv CO2e Concentration
3. Climate Focused Technology Push
• 3.4 W/m2 • @ 3o C temperature increase (50:50)
7,000 Others
Cumulative Mitigation:62.6 Billion Ton CO2
2. Two Development Pathways for India: Million Ton CO2
(with same total CO2 emissions from 2005 to 2050)
1. Conventional Vision: Climate Actions at Margin of Conventional Development path 2. ‘Sustainability’ Vision: Aligning Climate Actions with Mainstream Development Actions
Vision II: 1. 2. 3. 4.
Renewable Energy
5,000
CCS
4,000 Electricity Fuel Switch
3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000
What path shall best deliver national development goals while fulfilling Climate Commitments? Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Device Efficiency
6,000
Carbon Tax $/tCO2
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
7
22
40
67
100
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Managing Climate via Sustainable Path
Energy Technology Mix in 2050
Low Carbon Price Bottom-up/Demand-side Actions Behavioural Change Diverse Technology Portfolio
1,200 Base Case Conventional Dev. + Tax
1,000
Sustainability
800
Total Energy Demand
Share of Renewable
Base
3004 Mtoe
Base
24 %
C+T Sust.
2945 Mtoe 2004 Mtoe
C+T Sust.
34 % 47 %
200
e ab l
as s
ew en R
Bi
1,000
om
ar le uc N
H yd ro
G as
Electricity (Fuel Switch)
C
2,000
400
O il
3,000
600
l
5,000
4,000
Urban Planning Consumption Recycling Material Substitutions Appliance Efficiency Renewable Energy Building
oa
Million Ton CO2
6,000
Others CCS Transport Mode
Mtoe
7,000
0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
3
Energy and Carbon Intensities
CO2 Mitigation: Global and India
Energy and Carbon Intensities 50
CO2 Emissions: Global and India 50
7
Base CI CT CI
6
LCS CI 40
Carbon Intensities (CI)
30
30
20
20
10
10
Energy Intensities (EI) 0 2000
2010
Index 2000 =1
5 CI (tCO2/Million INR)
EI (toe/Million INR)
Base Case assumes global 650 ppmv CO2e stabilization
40
India Base Case 4 India Carbon Tax (550 ppmv CO2e)
3
2
Global Base Case
1
550 ppmv CO2e
0
2020
2030
0 2050
2040
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
CO2 Emissions & Price Trajectories CO2 Price 120
Modeling for Sustainability Vision:
Price CO2 (US $/tCO2)
100
80
• Restructure Private and Public Choices and Behavior • Focus on Long-term Drivers for Bifurcation • Aligning long-term market signals for co-benefits • Multiple Instruments
Conventional Society
60
40 Sustainable Society 20 Base Case 0 2010
2020
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
2030
2040
2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
4
Urban Choices
Choice of Automobiles Rush Hour Traffic in India
Rising Incomes and Small Cars
• Land-use Planning
• Infrastructures
• Building Choices
• Service Networks
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Tata Nano: $2500
QQ: $4000
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Choice of Transport modes
Dematerialization
Bus Rapid Transport System 700
1000
Steel
Cement
Steel
Technologies for Train Corridors
600
400
Demand (Million Ton)
Demand (Million (Million Ton) Ton) Demand
800 500 Conventional Development 300 200 Sustainable 100 0 2000 2000
Society 2010 2010
40
2020 2020
2030 2030
2040 2040
600
Development
400 Sustainable Society
200
0 2000
2050 2050
Conventional
2010
2020
Conventional Development
15 10 Sustainable 0 2000
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Demand (Trillion Lumen hrs)
Demand (Million Ton)
25
5
Society 2010
2020
2030
2050
Lighting
30
20
2040
3000
Paper
35
Public Transport: Metro Rail
2030
2040
2050
2000 Conventional Development Sustainable
1000
Society
0 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
5
Co-benefits of Alternate Choices Co-benefits: SO2 Emissions 14 Base Case 12
Conventional Path + High Carbon Price
10
Million tSO2
Co-benefits of LCS Transition through Sustainable Development
8
6
Sustainable Development + Low Carbon Tax
4
2 0 2000
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Co-benefits of Regional Co-operation MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability
CoCo-benefits of SouthSouth-Asia Integrated EnergyEnergy-Water Market Benefit (Saving)
$ Billion
% GDP
Cumulative from 2010 to 2030 Energy
60 Exa Joule
321
0.87
CO2 Equiv.
5.1 Billion Ton
28
0.08
SO2
50 Million Ton
10
0.03
359
0.98
Total Uzbekistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan
!.
Afghanistan !.
Iran
China
Delaram !.
Kandhar
!.
Quetta
Pakistan !.
South-Pars !.
Bandar-e-Abbas
!.
Iranshahar
!.
!.
Nangal Ludhiana BathindaSangrurAmbala Multan Sonipat Delhi Faridabad
Bareilly
Khuzdar
!.
United Arab Emirates
Saudi Arabia Oman
Legend Yemen
Somalia
¨
• More Water for Food Production (MDG1)
Nepal
Shahjahanpur Gwalior
Bahrain Qatar
Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits
Herat
Kota VijaypurGuna
Karachi
Mahesana Ujjain Kalol Nadiad AnandJhabua Rajkot Chotila Bharuch OlpadSurat
Dispur Patna Gaya
• 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7)
Bangladesh India
Ñ ºÑ º Dadra
Kolkata
Myanmar (Burma)
Valsad
Laos
Panvel Pune
Vishakhapattnam Important Places Solapur ChiptunGuhagar Ratnagiri Kokinada Ñ Existing Gas Pipelines Vijaywada ¨ º Gas Pipelines under construction Gadag Nellore Proposed Gas Pipelines Palmaner Chennai MangaloreHassan Existing LNG terminals Chittoor F Bangalore Proposed LNG terminals Coimbatore Tiruchchirappalli Existing Gas Basin Kochi FKayankulamTutikorin Proposed Gas Basin
Thailand
• Flood control (MDG1&7) • Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries (MDG1)
Sri Lanka Maldives
An Alternate Scenario Storyline and Modeling Framework
Bhutan
Auraiya Kanpur Jagdishpuri
Jhansi
Conclusions:
Indonesia
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Malaysia
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
6
Sustainable Low Carbon Development
Conclusions: Modeling LCS with Sustainability • Changing Behavior and Technology RD&D/ Transfer are key to LCS transition
Aim
Interventions
Drivers
Targets
• Moving from Margin to Mainstream – Development vision matters to LCS transition
Technological Innovations
Social/Institutional Management
Low Carbon Society
National Socio-economic Objectives and Targets
Win/Win Options Shared Costs/Risks Long-term Vision Avoid Lock-ins
Sustainability
Modify Preferences
Back-casting Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
• ‘Paradigm Shift towards ‘Co-benefits’ and ‘Co-operation’: – Modeling policy myopia, coordination failures, information asymmetry with focus on moving to efficient frontier and pushing the frontier
Aligning Markets Co-benefits
– Managing climate change at the margin is costly, risky, and unsustainable
Global Climate Change Objectives and Targets
– Modeling to gain co-benefits as a positive-sum game (shift modeling focus to cooperation rather than competition) – Focus on Drivers of Long-term Energy and Environment Future
• Even under LCS transition through sustainability, exclusive climate-centric actions for stabilization and adaptation will be needed, but their costs and risks shall be much lower
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
COMMENTS !
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
7
Related Documents
India Vision 2050
June 2020 3
2050
May 2020 10
Ntc 2050
November 2019 18
Governance In India Vision 2020
November 2019 8
Vision India-possibilities And Challenges
April 2020 6