India Development And Policy- Part-1

INDIA- Macro-economic Trends: 2000-2008 I T E MS 2000 POPULATION (Mn; as on Oct 1) GR Population %

[Update:30 December 2005] 2003 2004 2005

2001

2002

2006

2007

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

Est.

Proj.

Proj.

2008 Proj.

1019

1037

1055

1073

1091

1109

1127

1145

1162

1.80

1.77

1.74

1.71

1.68

1.65

1.61

1.58

1.55

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS (Rs.Bn;fy) GDP by industry (at const.1993/94 fc)

11986

12679

13184

14305

15294

16460

17687

19032

20489

Agriculture

2867

3047

2834

3106

3142

3205

3285

3383

3485

Industry

3264

3382

3604

3842

4138

4479

4836

5222

5639

Manufacturing

2062

2137

2276

2434

2657

2910

3157

3425

3716

Non-manufacturing

1202

1245

1328

1408

1480

1569

1679

1797

1922

5855

6251

6746

7357

8015

8776

9566

10427

11365

GDP at constant 1993/94 factor cost

Services

11986

12679

13184

14305

15294

16460

17687

19032

20489

Consumption of fixed capital

1361

1425

1486

1565

1682

1811

1946

2094

2254

NDP at factor cost

10625

11255

11698

12741

13612

14649

15741

16939

18235

-122

-103

-79

-81

-95

-100

-100

-120

-150

GNP at constant factor cost

11864

12576

13105

14225

15199

16360

17587

18912

20339

NNP at constant factor cost

10503

11152

11619

12660

13517

14549

15641

16819

18085

Indirect taxes less subsidies

1176

1158

1223

1341

1433

1543

1658

1784

1920

GDP at constant 1993/94 market prices

13162

13837

14406

15646

16727

18002

19344

20816

22409

GNP at constant 1993/94 market prices GDP (const.fc) sectoral shares

13040 100

13734 100

14327 100

15566 100

16632 100

17902 100

19244 100

20696 100

22259 100

Agriculture

23.9

24.0

21.5

21.7

20.5

19.5

18.6

17.8

17.0

Industry

27.2

26.7

27.3

26.9

27.1

27.2

27.3

27.4

27.5

Services

48.9

49.3

51.2

51.4

52.4

53.3

54.1

54.8

55.5

GNP growth rate at constant fc

4.3

6.0

4.2

8.5

6.8

7.6

7.5

7.5

7.5

GDP growth rate at constant mp GDP growth rate at constant fc

3.9 4.4

5.1 5.8

4.1 4.0

8.6 8.5

6.9 6.9

7.6 7.6

7.5 7.5

7.6 7.6

7.7 7.7

GR agriculture

-0.1

6.3

-7.0

9.6

1.1

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.0

GR industry

Net factor income from abroad

6.5

3.6

6.6

6.6

7.7

8.2

8.0

8.0

8.0

GR manufacturing

7.4

3.6

6.5

6.9

9.2

9.5

8.5

8.5

8.5

GR non-manufacturing

5.1

3.6

6.6

6.1

5.1

6.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

5.5

6.8

7.9

9.1

8.9

9.5

9.0

9.0

9.0

20895

22720

24633

27600

31337

35411

39764

44500

49822

-181

-156

-132

-141

-160

-181

-203

-227

-254

GNP at current mp (Rupees)

20714

22564

24502

27459

31177

35231

39561

44273

49568

NNP at current mp

18735

20387

22172

24923

28297

31977

35907

40184

44990

GDP at current mp (mn US$)

457377

476388

509001

600639

697464

795761

883639

988887

1107166

GNP at current mp (mn US$)

453413

473124

506280

597575

693907

791702

879132

983843

1101519

NNP at current mp (mn US$)

410095

427481

458145

542378

629812

718575

797928

892968

999774

GR services GDP at current mp (Rupees Bn;fy) Net factor income from abroad

Average Exchange Rate (Rupees/US$)

45.68

47.69

48.40

45.95

44.93

44.50

45.00

45.00

45.00

REER (1993-94=100, 5 country)

100.76

102.09

97.88

99.60

101.91

105.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

NEER (1993-94=100, 5 country)

73.77

73.18

68.78

67.36

66.09

65.43

64.77

64.13

63.49

159

164

171

176

187

197

206

214

222

Implicit GDP deflator (1993/94=100) GR GDP deflator Implicit GNP deflator (1993/94=100) GR GNP deflator

3.8

3.4

4.1

3.2

6.2

5.0

4.5

4.0

4.0

159

164

171

176

187

197

206

214

223

3.8

3.4

4.1

3.2

6.3

5.0

4.5

4.1

4.1

INDIA- Macro-economic Trends: 2000-2008 I T E MS 2000 CPI :Ind.Workers 1982=100 (Average) GR : Consumer Price Index

[Update:30 December 2005] 2003 2004 2005

2001

2002

2006

2007

2008

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

Est.

Proj.

Proj.

Proj.

444

463

482

500

520

543

565

587

611

3.8

4.3

4.0

3.9

3.8

4.5

4.0

4.0

4.0

WPI :1993/94=100 (52-week average)

155.7

161.3

166.8

175.9

187.3

196.7

205.5

213.7

222.3

GR : Wholesale Price Index Expend. on GDP;Current mp;Rs.Bn

7.2 20895

3.6 22720

3.4 24633

5.5 27600

6.2 31337

5.0 35411

4.5 39764

4.0

4.0

44500

49822

total consumption

16179

17690

18754

20739

23189

25319

28113

31372

34876

private consumption

13537

14857

15839

17618

19742

21424

23739

26477

29644

government consumption

2642

2834

2915

3121

3447

3895

4374

4895

5231

total investment

4982

5135

6109

7269

9063

10798

12852

14528

16392

gross fixed cap. formation

4592

5014

5480

6273

8973

10698

12742

14408

16267

increase in stocks

135

26

100

84

90

100

110

120

125

exports of goods and services

2781

2908

3800

4434

6404

7520

8950

10560

12493

less: imports of goods and services

2975

3111

3800

4434

6693

8226

10151

11961

13937

-72

97

-230

-407

-627

0

0

0

0

statistical discrepancy Investment: curr.mp;Rs.Bn gross domestic capital formation

4982

5135

6109

7269

9063

10798

12852

14528

16392

-- Private sector

3667

3734

4789

5728

6797

8099

9639

10896

12294

-- Public sector

1315

1401

1320

1541

2266

2700

3213

3632

4098

gross domestic saving

4900

5323

6423

7764

8774

10092

11651

13127

14947

-- Household sector

4523

5131

5747

6717

7678

8853

9941

11125

12456

-- Private corporate sector

861

811

943

1142

1316

1594

1988

2225

2491

-- Public sector

-484

-619

-267

-94

-219

-354

-278

-222

0

GR GDS

4.6

8.6

20.7

20.9

13.0

15.0

15.4

30.1

28.3

GR GDI

1.5

3.1

19.0

19.0

24.7

19.1

19.0

34.5

27.5

6.9 23.8

9.3 22.6

6.0 24.8

10.6 26.3

11.8 28.9

9.2 30.5

11.0 32.3

23.9 32.6

24.1 32.9

-- Private sector

17.5

16.4

19.4

20.8

21.7

22.9

24.2

24.5

24.7

-- Public sector GDS as % of GDP

6.3 23.5

6.2 23.4

5.4 26.1

5.6 28.1

7.2 28.0

7.6 28.5

8.1 29.3

8.2 29.5

8.2 30.0

-- Household sector

21.6

22.6

23.3

24.3

24.5

25.0

25.0

25.0

25.0

-- Private corporate sector

4.1

3.6

3.8

4.1

4.2

4.5

5.0

5.0

5.0

-- Public sector

-2.3

-2.7

-1.1

-0.3

-0.7

-1.0

-0.7

-0.5

0.0

Resource gap (GDS-GDI) GDI as % of GNP GDS as % of GNP

-0.4 24.1 23.7

0.8 22.8 23.6

1.3 24.9 26.2

1.8 26.5 28.3

-0.9 29.1 28.1

-2.0 30.7 28.6

-3.0 32.5 29.5

-3.1 32.8 29.7

-2.9 33.1 30.2

Resource gap (GDS-GDI)

-0.4

0.8

1.3

1.8

-0.9

-2.0

-3.0

-3.2

-2.9

Current market prices

20505

21909

23349

25723

28723

31930

35286

38875

42861

constant 1993/94 factor cost

11762

12227

12496

13332

14018

14841

15695

16626

17626

GR per capita GDP at constant fc

2.3

3.9

2.2

6.7

5.1

5.9

5.8

5.9

6.0

Per Capita NNP at constant 1993/94 fc

10308

10754

11013

11799

12389

13119

13880

14693

15558

2.3

4.3

2.4

7.1

5.0

5.9

5.8

5.9

5.9

Current market prices

20328

21759

23224

25591

28576

31767

35106

38677

42642

constant 1993/94 market prices

12797

13244

13580

14507

15245

16142

17077

18080

19149

GR per capita constant GNP

2.1

3.5

2.5

6.8

5.1

5.9

5.8

5.9

5.9

GR Total Consumption GDI as % of GDP

Per Capita GDP ( Rupees ):

GR per capita NNP at constant fc Per Capita GNP ( Rupees ):

INDIA- Macro-economic Trends: 2000-2008 I T E MS 2000

[Update:30 December 2005] 2003 2004 2005

2001

2002

2006

2007

2008

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

Est.

Proj.

Proj.

Proj.

45452

44703

53774

64723

80831

96997

116397

139676

167611

Balance of Payments (US$ Mn; fy) Merchandise exports, fob Merchandise imports, cif

57912

56277

64464

80177

118961

152865

191081

229297

271717

-12460

-11574

-10690

-15454

-38130

-55868

-74684

-89621

-104106

Gross invisible receipts

32267

36737

41925

52982

61699

72000

82500

95000

110000

Gross invisible payments

22473

21763

24890

26967

30000

32000

34500

36500

38000

9794

14974

17035

26015

31699

40000

48000

58500

72000

-2666

3400

6345

10561

-6431

-15868

-26684

-31121

-32106

merchandise exports

21.1

-1.6

20.3

20.4

24.9

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

merchandise imports

4.6

-2.8

14.5

24.4

48.4

28.5

25.0

20.0

18.5

invisibles receipts

6.4

13.9

14.1

26.4

16.5

16.7

14.6

15.2

15.8

invisibles payments

30.9

-3.2

14.4

8.3

11.2

6.7

7.8

5.8

4.1

-25.5 9420

52.9 10975

13.8 12843

52.7 20860

21.8 32590

26.2 29700

20.0 35500

21.9 35000

23.1 34000

Trade balance

Net invisibles Current account balance & off. transfer growth rates : Fiscal Year

net invisibles capital inflows (US$ million; fy) External assistance,net

410

1117

-2460

-2742

1922

1500

1000

1000

1000

External commercial borrowings,net

3737

-1576

-2344

-1526

5947

6000

5000

2500

-1000

Direct foreign investment

3272

4741

3611

3420

3037

4200

5000

5500

6000

Portfolio investment

2590

1951

944

11356

8907

12500

10000

11000

12500

Other capital inflows, of which

-589

4742

13092

10352

12777

5500

14500

15000

15500

IMF, net

-26

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

NRI deposits,net

2317

2754

2976

3642

-1067

-3500

2000

2500

3000

Other capital,net

12500

-2880

1988

10116

6710

13844

9000

12500

12500

Change of reserves [increase (-) ]

-6754

-14375

-19188

-31421

-26159

-13832

-8816

-3879

-1894

Foreign exchange reserves ($mn, end fy)

42281

54106

73294

104715

130874

144706

153522

157400

159294

Foreign Reserves (in months of imports)

8.8

11.5

13.6

15.7

13.2

11.4

9.6

8.2

7.0

5862

6692

4555

14776

11944

16700

15000

16500

18500

Narrow money supply (M1)

3795

4228

4736

5787

6463

7529

8783

10254

11973

Currency with the public

2096

2408

2716

3150

3558

4056

4624

5271

6009

Demand deposits

1663

1792

1988

2586

2840

3408

4090

4908

5889

36

29

32

51

65

65

70

75

75

Time deposits with banks

9338

10755

12444

14270

16077

18151

20492

23136

26120

Broad money supply (M3)

13132

14984

17180

20057

22539

25680

29275

33389

38093

Foreign assets (net)

2498

3110

3937

5266

6493

8440

10972

14264

18543

Domestic credit

11912

13492

15755

17591

20384

23703

27610

32215

37650

Claims on govt. sector

5120

5896

6765

7429

7579

8337

9171

10088

11097

Claims on private sector

6792

7596

8990

10162

12805

15366

18440

22128

26553

Foreign investment (US$ milion) Money Supply (Rs.Bn; end fy)

Other deposits with RBI

Govt's currency liabilities to the public

54

64

71

73

74

76

77

77

78

less, banking sector's non-monetary liabl.

1331

1683

2583

2873

4412

6540

9384

13167

18178

Broad money supply (M3)

13132

14984

17180

20057

22539

25680

29275

33389

38093

GR M1

11.0

11.4

12.0

22.2

11.7

16.5

16.7

16.7

16.8

GR M3

16.8

14.1

14.7

16.7

12.4

13.9

14.0

14.1

14.1

INDIA- Macro-economic Trends: 2000-2008 I T E MS 2000

[Update:30 December 2005] 2003 2004 2005

2001

2002

2006

2007

2008

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

Est.

Proj.

Proj.

Proj.

Central govt.finance(Rs.Bln.fy) Current revenue

1926

2013

2308

2639

3009

3512

4132

4838

5625

Taxes

1367

1335

1585

1870

2258

2735

3282

3938

4725

Non-taxes including external grants

559

678

723

769

751

777

850

900

900

2778

3015

3387

3621

3861

4465

4905

5442

6100

Current expenditure, of which

993

1075

1178

1241

1259

1339

1400

1460

1460

Current surplus(+)/deficit(-)

Interest payments

-852

-1002

-1079

-983

-852

-953

-773

-604

-475

Capital receipts, of which

1330

1610

1824

2075

2049

1631

1610

1600

1600

Recovery of loans

120

164

342

673

616

120

110

100

100

Disinvestment of govt.equity in PSUs

21

36

32

170

41

0

0

0

0

1188

1410

1451

1233

1392

1511

1500

1500

1500

Capital expenditure

478

608

745

1092

1197

678

837

996

1125

Capital a/c surplus(+)/deficit(-)

852

1002

1079

983

852

953

773

604

475

Budget deficit (-)/ Surplus (+)

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Gross Fiscal Deficit(-)/Surplus(+)

-1188

-1410

-1451

-1233

-1392

-1511

-1500

-1500

-1500

Primary deficit (-)

-195

-335

-273

8

-133

-172

-100

-40

-40

1125

1369

1567

1182

1275

1380

1375

1375

1375

100

100 25 1500

Govt. borrowings & other liabilities

Financing fiscal deficit (Rs.Bln): Domestic borrowing Others (use of cash balances)

-12

-15

19

-39

21

31

25

100 25

Note:Borrowing & other liabilities

1188

1410

1451

1233

1392

1511

1500

1500

Tax revenue

6.5

5.9

6.4

6.8

7.2

7.7

8.3

8.8

9.5

Total non-debt revenue

9.9

9.7

10.9

12.6

11.7

10.3

10.7

11.1

11.5

Current expenditure

13.3

13.3

13.8

13.1

12.3

12.6

12.3

12.2

12.2

Total expenditure & net lending

15.6

15.9

16.8

17.1

16.1

14.5

14.4

14.5

14.5

Gross fiscal balance

-5.7

-6.2

-5.9

-4.5

-4.4

-4.3

-3.8

-3.4

-3.0

Revenue balance

-4.1

-4.4

-4.4

-3.6

-2.7

-2.7

-1.9

-1.4

-1.0

Primary balance

-0.9

-1.5

-1.1

0.0

-0.4

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

-0.1

Fiscal deficit (-)

-895

-960

-1021

-1214

-1193

-1070

Primary deficit (-)

-378

-335

-320

-407

-321

-147

Budget deficit (-)

23

26

46

12

-60

26

-536

-592

-551

-612

-432

-245

Fiscal deficit (-)

-4.3

-4.2

-4.1

-4.4

-3.8

-3.0

Primary deficit (-)

-1.8

-1.5

-1.3

-1.5

-1.0

-0.4

Budget deficit (-)

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.0

-0.2

0.1

Revenue deficit (-)

-2.6

-2.6

-2.2

-2.2

-1.4

-0.7

Fiscal deficit (-)

-9.5

-9.9

-9.5

-8.4

-8.3

-7.3

Primary deficit (-)

-3.6

-3.7

-3.1

-2.0

-2.2

-0.9

Budget deficit (-)

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.0

-0.2

0.1

Revenue deficit (-)

-6.6

-7.0

-6.6

-5.8

-4.1

-3.4

Foreign borrowing and grants

75

56

-135

90

97

100

As % of GDP at current mp

States finance combined (Rs.Bln)

Revenue deficit (-) States finance comb. (% of GDP)

Centre & States comb. (% of GDP)

INDIA- Macro-economic Trends: 2000-2008 I T E MS 2000 Actual Ext.Debt (US$ Mn. End of fin. year) Total outstanding and disbursed

2001

2002

Actual

Actual

[Update:30 December 2005] 2003 2004 2005 Actual

Actual

Est.

2006

2007

2008

Proj.

Proj.

Proj.

Mar-2001 Mar-2002 Mar-2003 Mar-2004 Mar-2005 Mar-2006 Mar-2007 Mar-2008 Mar-2009 101326

98843

104958

111715

123310

125036

133286

131536

136536

Long-term, of which

97698

96098

100289

107284

115786

119786

127786

125786

130786

Government debt

42499

42707

41543

42717

44510

46010

47010

47010

48010

non-government debt

55199

53391

58746

64567

71276

73776

80776

78776

82776

3628

2745

4669

4431

7524

5250

5500

5750

5750

Short-term (all on non-govt account) Total debt servicing

12821

10863

14407

20949

17000

14000

14000

15500

15500

principal repayments

8359

6776

10843

16949

12500

9500

9000

9500

9500

interest payments (LT, ST)

4462

4087

3564

4000

4500

4500

5000

6000

6000

77719

81440

95699

117705

142530

168997

198897

234676

277611

Exports & gross invisibles (XGS) ExtDebt/ current receipt ratio (%)

130

121

110

95

87

74

67

56

49

Debt-service ratio (to XGS in per cent)

16.5

13.3

15.1

17.8

11.9

8.3

7.0

6.6

5.6

Debt-service to GDP ratio (per cent)

2.8

2.3

2.8

3.5

2.4

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.4

Debt/GDP ratio (in per cent)

22.2

20.7

20.6

18.6

17.7

15.7

15.1

13.3

12.3

Debt/exports ratio (in per cent)

223

221

195

173

153

129

115

94

81

Short term debt/ Total Debt ratio (%)

3.6

2.8

4.4

4.0

6.1

4.2

4.1

4.4

4.2

Govt external debt/ Total Debt ratio (%)

41.9

43.2

39.6

38.2

36.1

36.8

35.3

35.7

35.2

[Update:30 December 2005] 2003 2004 2005

INDIA- Macro-economic Trends: 2000-2008 I T E MS 2000 Actual

2001

2002

2006

2007

2008

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

Est.

Proj.

Proj.

Proj.

Memo Items: As per cent of GDP at current mp: Merchandise exports, fob

9.9

9.4

10.6

10.8

11.6

12.2

13.2

14.1

15.1

Merchandise imports, cif

12.7

11.8

12.7

13.3

17.1

19.2

21.6

23.2

24.5

-2.7

-2.4

-2.1

-2.6

-5.5

-7.0

-8.5

-9.1

-9.4

Gross invisible receipts

7.1

7.7

8.2

8.8

8.8

9.0

9.3

9.6

9.9

Gross invisible payments

4.9

4.6

4.9

4.5

4.3

4.0

3.9

3.7

3.4

2.1

3.1

3.3

4.3

4.5

5.0

5.4

5.9

6.5

Current account balance & official transfer

-0.6

0.7

1.2

1.8

-0.9

-2.0

-3.0

-3.1

-2.9

Total capital inflows, net

1.9

3.3

5.1

5.2

6.5

4.4

5.7

5.1

4.5

External assistance,net

0.1

0.2

-0.5

-0.5

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

External commercial borrowings,net

0.8

-0.3

-0.5

-0.3

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.3

-0.1

Direct foreign investment

0.7

1.0

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.5

Portfolio investment

0.6

0.4

0.2

1.9

1.3

1.6

1.1

1.1

1.1

Other capital inflows, of which

-0.1

1.0

2.6

1.7

1.8

0.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

IMF, net

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

NRI deposits,net

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

-0.2

-0.4

0.2

0.3

0.3

Other capital,net

Trade balance

Net invisibles

-0.6

0.4

2.0

1.1

2.0

1.1

1.4

1.3

1.1

Change in reserves [increase (-)]

-1.5

-3.0

-3.8

-5.2

-3.8

-1.7

-1.0

-0.4

-0.2

Foreign exchange reserves at end year

9.2

11.4

14.4

17.4

18.8

18.2

17.4

15.9

14.4

Total foreign investment

1.3

1.4

0.9

2.5

1.7

2.1

1.7

1.7

1.7

INDIA- Macro-economic Trends: 2000-2008 I T E MS 2000

[Update:30 December 2005] 2003 2004 2005

2001

2002

2006

2007

2008

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

Est.

Proj.

Proj.

Proj.

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

77.4

77.9

76.1

75.1

74.0

71.5

70.7

70.5

70.0

private consumption

64.8

65.4

64.3

63.8

63.0

60.5

59.7

59.5

59.5

government consumption

12.6

12.5

11.8

11.3

11.0

11.0

11.0

11.0

10.5

23.8

22.6

24.8

24.8

26.3

28.9

30.5

30.5

32.3

22.0

22.1

22.2

22.7

28.6

30.2

32.0

32.4

32.6

Memo Items: As per cent of GDP at current mp: Expenditure on GDP;Current mp;Rs.Bn total consumption

total investment gross fixed cap. formation

0.6

0.1

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

exports of goods and services

increase in stocks

13.3

12.8

15.4

16.1

20.4

21.2

22.5

23.7

25.1

less: imports of goods and services

14.2

13.7

15.4

16.1

21.4

23.2

25.5

26.9

28.0

statistical discrepancy

-0.3

0.4

-0.9

-1.5

-2.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

MONEY (As % of GDP at cur. mp): Narrow money supply (M1)

18.2

18.6

19.2

21.0

20.6

21.3

22.1

23.0

24.0

Currency in circulation

10.0

10.6

11.0

11.4

11.4

11.5

11.6

11.8

12.1

Demand deposits

8.0

7.9

8.1

9.4

9.1

9.6

10.3

11.0

11.8

Other deposits with RBI

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Time deposits with banks

44.7

47.3

50.5

51.7

51.3

51.3

51.5

52.0

52.4

Broad money supply (M3)

62.8

65.9

69.7

72.7

71.9

72.5

73.6

75.0

76.5

Foreign assets (net)

12.0

13.7

16.0

19.1

20.7

23.8

27.6

32.1

37.2

Domestic credit

57.0

59.4

64.0

63.7

65.0

66.9

69.4

72.4

75.6

Claims on govt. sector

24.5

25.9

27.5

26.9

24.2

23.5

23.1

22.7

22.3

Claims on private sector

32.5

33.4

36.5

36.8

40.9

43.4

46.4

49.7

53.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Govt's currency liabilities to the public less, banking sector's non-monetary liabl.

6.4

7.4

10.5

10.4

14.1

18.5

23.6

29.6

36.5

Broad money supply (M3)

62.8

65.9

69.7

72.7

71.9

72.5

73.6

75.0

76.5

9.2

8.9

9.4

9.6

9.6

9.9

10.4

10.9

11.3

6.5

5.9

6.4

6.8

7.2

7.7

8.3

8.8

9.5

Cent Govt.Fin (% of GDP at cur.mp) current revenue taxes non-taxes including external grants

2.7

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.4

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.8

13.3

13.3

13.8

13.1

12.3

12.6

12.3

12.2

12.2

-4.1

-4.4

-4.4

-3.6

-2.7

-2.7

-1.9

-1.4

-1.0

6.4

7.1

7.4

7.5

6.5

4.6

4.0

3.6

3.2

recovery of loans

0.6

0.7

1.4

2.4

2.0

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

disinvestment of govt.equity in PSUs

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.6

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

govt. borrowings & other liabilities

5.7

6.2

5.9

4.5

4.4

4.3

3.8

3.4

3.0

2.3

2.7

3.0

4.0

3.8

1.9

2.1

2.2

2.3

4.1

4.4

4.4

3.6

2.7

2.7

1.9

1.4

1.0

Total expenditure

15.6

15.9

16.8

17.1

16.1

14.5

14.4

14.5

14.5

Budget deficit (-)/ Surplus (+)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Fiscal Deficit(-)/Surplus(+)

-5.7

-6.2

-5.9

-4.5

-4.4

-4.3

-3.8

-3.4

-3.0

current expenditure current surplus(+)/deficit(-) capital receipts

capital expenditure capital a/c surplus(+)/deficit(-)

INDIA- Macro-economic Trends: 2000-2008 I T E MS

[Update:30 December 2005]

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

Est.

Proj.

Proj.

Proj.

5865

6534

7272

8453

9461

9920

1618

1767

2059

2450

2580

Education

657

687

748

860

915

Health

279

298

342

380

425

3025 990 495

Others

681

782

970

1210

1240

1540

28.1

28.8

29.5

30.6

30.2

28.0

7.7

7.8

8.4

8.9

8.2

8.5

Education

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.8

Health

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

Others

3.3

3.4

3.9

4.4

4.0

4.4

Finance of Centre & States(Rs.Bln) Total expenditure Expenditure on social sector

As percentage of GDP: Total expenditure Expenditure on social sector

As % of total expenditure: Expenditure on social sector

27.6

27.1

28.3

29.0

27.3

30.5

Education

11.2

10.5

10.3

10.2

9.7

10.0

Health

4.8

4.6

4.7

4.5

4.5

5.0

Others

11.6

12.0

13.3

14.3

13.1

15.5

Education

41

39

36

35

35

33

Health

17

17

17

16

16

16

Others

42

44

47

49

48

51

20895

22720

24633

27600

31337

35411

As % of expend. on social sector

Memo item: GDP at current mp (Rupees billion)

INDIA- Macro-economic Trends: 2000-2008 I T E MS 2000 Domestic debt combined (Rs.billion)

[Update:30 December 2005] 2003 2004 2005

2001

2002

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

Est.

16007

18815

21857

26004

29517

33029

Centre

11026

12949

14996

16906

19271

21687

State

4981

5867

6861

9098

10245

11342

2046 2046

2127 2127

2076 2076

1966 1966

2091 2091

2047

0

0

0

0

0

0

18053

20943

23933

27969

31608

35077

Centre

13072

15076

17072

18871

21362

23734

State

4981

5867

6861

9098

10245

11342

76.6

82.8

88.7

94.2

94.2

93.3

Centre

52.8

57.0

60.9

61.3

61.5

61.2

State

23.8

25.8

27.9

33.0

32.7

32.0

9.8

9.4

8.4

7.1

6.7

5.8

Centre

9.8

9.4

8.4

7.1

6.7

5.8

State

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

86.4

92.2

97.2

101.3

100.9

99.1

62.6

66.4

69.3

68.4

68.2

67.0

23.8 1510

25.8 1700

27.9 1920

33.0 2049

32.7 2130

32.0 2263

993 517

1075 625

1178 742

1241 808

1259 871

4306 1926 2380

4570 2013 2557

5248 2308 2940

5731 2639 3092

6780 3009 3771

4213

7.2

7.5

7.8

7.4

6.8

6.4

Centre

4.8

4.7

4.8

4.5

4.0

3.8

State

2.5 35.1 51.6 21.7

2.8 37.2 53.4 24.4

3.0 36.6 51.0 25.2

2.9 35.8 47.0 26.1

2.8 31.4 41.8 23.1

2.6 29.3 38.1 21.9

External debt combined (Rs.billion) Centre State Total govt. debt combined (Rs.billion)

Domestic debt as % of GDP (combined)

External debt as % of GDP (combined)

Total govt.debt as % of GDP (comb) Centre State Interest payments (Rs.billion) Centre State Revenue receipts combined (Rs.billion) Centre State Interest payment as % GDP

Interest payment as % revenue Centre State

2047

1339 924 7725 3512

2006

2007

2008

Proj.

Proj.

Proj.