How To Win Uttar Pradesh

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How to win Uttar Pradesh? This is a summary of the parliament elections held in UP from 1996 to 2004. Please take a note of the following before reading this article. -

Orange highlighted constituencies are those won by BJP or JD(U). A context is explained followed by an example of the data. The example constituency is chosen in a random manner and there may be one or more constituencies which may fit the criteria

Highlights (Based on data analyzed from elections 1996 to 2004) BJP will win majority of the seats in Uttar Pradesh, if the polling percentage crosses 75% mark. BJP has a strong presence among middle class voters and government employees. This is evident from the postal vote results of election 2004. BJP was ahead than other parties or equaled others in postal votes in 63 constituencies. There were extreme situations where BJP secured 4 times more postal votes than all other parties (e.g Mathura). Hence we should concentrate more on this section and encourage more people to come out and vote. Independents and smaller parties are eating in to the vote share of the national parties and majority of the time BJP is on the receiving end. E.g. Dr. M.M Joshi’s defeat in Allahabad last time is partly due to the presence of a large number of independents. BJP should investigate if any hidden hands are behind this many independents appearing for election. Lesser the number of candidates, advantage is for national parties and BJP has gained heavily in these situations (E.g. Gorakhpur, Maharajganj) In the changed scenario, after tie up with Ajith Singh’s RLD, the combined team can now easily win 6-7 seats. These seats are as below
BIJNOR (SC) - RLD WON, in 2004
AMROHA - BJP + RLD will cross 4 lakh votes twice the value of the winner of 2004 elections
BAGHPAT - RLD Won in 2004 with BJP + RLD the total votes will corss 4.5 lakh mark. BJP was in 3rd place
KAIRANA - RLD Won in 2004 with BJP +RLD the total votes will touch 6 lakh mark . BJP was in 3rd place
KHURJA- BJP won in 2004, but with RLD the majority will cross the 1lakh mark
BULANDSHAHR -BJP won in 2004 and Kalyan Singh was the winner. The RLD was the runner up here and Kalyan's majority was 16,600. Now with Kalyan in opposite camp, BJP + RLD need to work to cross this number. Here Akhil Bharatha Hindu Mahasabha got 3000 votes. th
MATHURA - BJP +RLD will cross 2.5 lakh votes almost 1.5 times the existing majority. Currently RLD is in 3rd position and BJP in 4 ABHM (Akhil Bharatheeya Hindu Mahasabha) scored 25000 votes across 9 constituencies. There should not be any division of Hindu votes in this election Apna Dal is another small party which can break the pot. They have presence in few constituencies and they tilted few victories away from runner ups and most of the times the affected party was BJP. Now having said all these here are the statistics for reinforcing our campaign strategy and make sure that we score the highest marks (read seats) in a scoring paper (read win majority of seats in UP)

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Year

STATE

Electors

TotalVoters

% Polled

Seats Contested By BJP

2004

UTTAR PRADESH (no of constituencies - 80 as 5 went to Uttarakhand) UTTAR PRADESH ( No of Constituencies - 85) UTTAR PRADESH ( No of Constituencies - 85) UTTAR PRADESH STATE

110624490

53278071

48.16%

102946404

55107957

101982480

1999 1998 1996 Year

2004

1999 1998 1996 Year 2004

1999 1998 1996

UTTAR PRADESH (no of constituencies - 80 as 5 went to Uttarakhand) UTTAR PRADESH ( No of Constituencies - 85) UTTAR PRADESH ( No of Constituencies - 85) UTTAR PRADESH STATE UTTAR PRADESH (no of constituencies - 80 as 5 went to Uttarakhand) UTTAR PRADESH ( No of Constituencies - 85) UTTAR PRADESH ( No of Constituencies - 85) UTTAR PRADESH

Seats Won By BJP

% of Votes Polled for BJP

77

10

22.17%

53.53%

77

29

27.64%

56593465

55.49%

82

57

36.49%

100826305 Electors

46885634 Total Voters

46.50% % Polled

83 Seats Contested By BSP

52 Seat Won By BSP

33.44% %of Votes Polled for BSP

110624490

53278071

48.16%

80

19

24.67%

102946404

55107957

53.53%

85

14

22.08%

101982480

56593465

55.49%

85

4

20.90%

100826305 Electors

46885634 Total Voters

46.50% % Polled

85 Seats Contested By SP

6 Seat Won By SP

110624490

53278071

48.16%

68

35

20.61% %of Votes Polled for SP 26.74%

102946404

55107957

53.53%

84

26

24.06%

101982480

56593465

55.49%

81

20

28.70%

100826305

46885634

46.50%

64

16

20.84%

Note how small percentage deviation in % of votes polled for BJP is and its impact on the number of seats won. Also watch the number of seats for SP and their % of votes polled.

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2004 Election Report Card for BJP No Of Seats Won By BJP (incl. 1 JD(U )seat) No Of Seats where BJP is runner up No of Seats where BJP is in 3rd place No of Seats where BJP is in 4th place No of Seats where BJP Is in 5th place BJP didn't contest 1 seat Salempur Total Seats

11 21 32 13 2 1 80

BJP’s Victory/Defeat Margin in Various Constituencies in UP and there position as per 2004 parliament election. E.g. Aonla constituency, Position 1 means we won the seat by a majority of 6871., Agra constituency,postion 2 means we were runner ups and we lost by a margin of 57361 Constituency AGRA AKBARPUR ALIGARH ALLAHABAD AMETHI AMROHA AONLA AZAMGARH BAGHPAT BAHRAICH BALLIA BALRAMPUR BANDA BANSGAON BARA BAREILLY BASTI BIJNOR (SC) BILHAUR

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BJP Position 2 3 2 2 3 4 1 5 3 3 3 1 3 4 3 1 2 3 3

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Victory/Defeat Margin 57361 264134 2876 28409 334736 157005 6871 223505 250859 45169 160620 52613 62710 53497 80394 59636 25380 200259 63513

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BUDAUN BULANDSHAHR CHAIL CHANDAULI DEORIA DOMARIAGANJ ETAH ETAWAH FAIZABAD FARRUKHABAD FATEHPUR FIROZABAD GHATAMPUR GHAZIPUR GHOSI GONDA GORAKHPUR HAMIRPUR HAPUR HARDOI HATHRAS JALAUN JALESAR JAUNPUR JHANSI KAIRANA KAISERGANJ KANNAUJ KANPUR KHALILABAD KHERI KHURJA LALGANJ LUCKNOW MACHHLISHAHR MAHARAJGANJ

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2 1 3 3 2 4 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 4 2 1 4 2 3 1 1 2 4 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 1 3 1 3 1

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51323 16630 96040 22829 52235 87441 51343 190157 33561 40029 62111 54796 37278 226811 147508 37011 142013 176502 42374 86974 22798 26773 106075 109470 32191 448067 12668 352022 5643 57297 28756 41137 121030 218329 66515 64795

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MAINPURI MATHURA MEERUT MIRZAPUR MISRIKH MOHANLALGANJ MORADABAD MUZAFFARNAGAR PADRAUNA PHULPUR PILIBHIT PRATAPGARH RAMPUR ROBERTSGANJ SAHARANPUR SAIDPUR SAMBHAL SHAHABAD SHAHJAHANPUR SITAPUR SULTANPUR UNNAO VARANASI RAEBARELI

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3 4 3 2 3 3 2 2 4 3 1 5 4 3 3 3 4 2 4 3 4 3 2 4

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349300 84587 85303 36418 131351 32600 35842 69014 90879 113938 102721 217300 167608 22326 122935 70800 282232 46378 117222 33914 170267 83676 57440 346817

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BJP Runner up Constituencies (Position no – 2) Margin < 10,000 Margin > 10,000 <50,000 Margin >50,000 < 100,000 Margin > 100,000 Constituency AGRA ALIGARH ALLAHABAD BASTI BUDAUN DEORIA ETAH ETAWAH FAIZABAD FIROZABAD GHAZIPUR GONDA HAPUR JALESAR KAISERGANJ KANPUR MIRZAPUR MORADABAD MUZAFFARNAGAR SHAHABAD VARANASI

2 seats 9 seats 7 seats 3 seats BJP Position 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

BJP No.3 Constituencies (Position no – 3) Margin < 50,000Margin > 50,000 < 100,000Margin > 100,000 < 200,000-

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9 seats, 11 seats, 5 seats,

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Total 57361 2876 28409 25380 51323 52235 51343 190157 33561 54796 226811 37011 42374 106075 12668 5643 36418 35842 69014 46378 57440

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Margin > 200,000 < 300,000Margin > 300,000Constituency AKBARPUR AMETHI BAGHPAT BAHRAICH BALLIA BANDA BARA BIJNOR (SC) BILHAUR CHAIL CHANDAULI FARRUKHABAD FATEHPUR GHATAMPUR HARDOI JHANSI KAIRANA KANNAUJ KHALILABAD KHERI LALGANJ MACHHLISHAHR MAINPURI MEERUT MISRIKH MOHANLALGANJ PHULPUR ROBERTSGANJ SAHARANPUR SAIDPUR SITAPUR UNNAO

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3 seats, 4 seats Defeat Margin 264,134 334,736 250,859 45,169 160,620 62,710 80,394 200,259 63,513 96,040 22,829 40,029 62,111 37,278 86,974 32,191 448,067 352,022 57,297 28,756 121,030 66,515 349,300 85,303 131,351 32,600 113,938 22,326 122,935 70,800 33,914 83,676

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Jaago Re – Target 100% polling

BJP Leads in 63 constituencies under postal vote category which is a clear indication of its dominance and preferred party among middle class/ government employees. We need to increase the general vote polling percentage in a similar manner. Consituency AGRA AKBARPUR ALIGARH ALLAHABAD AMETHI AMROHA AZAMGARH BAGHPAT BAHRAICH BALLIA BALRAMPUR BANDA BANSGAON BARA BAREILLY BASTI BIJNOR (SC) BILHAUR BUDAUN BULANDSHAHR CHAIL CHANDAULI DEORIA DOMARIAGANJ ETAH ETAWAH FAIZABAD FARRUKHABAD FATEHPUR FIROZABAD

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Party BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP

BJP Leads in Postal Vote Y Y Y Y N Y Y N N N N Y Y Y Y Y N N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

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Total Postal Votes 30 15 123 33 16 3 30 8 0 98 0 28 7 20 8 8 2 8 2 22 27 22 10 1 24 18 82 30 31 31

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GHATAMPUR GHAZIPUR GHOSI GONDA GORAKHPUR HAMIRPUR HAPUR HARDOI HATHRAS JALAUN JALESAR JAUNPUR JHANSI KAIRANA KAISERGANJ KANNAUJ KANPUR KHALILABAD KHERI KHURJA LALGANJ LUCKNOW MACHHLISHAHR MAHARAJGANJ MAINPURI MATHURA** MIRZAPUR MISRIKH MOHANLALGANJ MORADABAD MUZAFFARNAGAR PADRAUNA PHULPUR PILIBHIT PRATAPGARH

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BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP

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Y Y N Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N

19 75 47 22 28 14 27 18 39 20 22 9 7 7 9 22 10 2 7 13 51 48 17 5 45 218 8 3 17 2 13 6 27 4 8

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RAMPUR ROBERTSGANJ SAHARANPUR SAIDPUR SAMBHAL SHAHABAD SHAHJAHANPUR SITAPUR SULTANPUR UNNAO VARANASI RAEBARELI

BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP

Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y Y N

4 16 10 28 0 13 0 3 32 27 6 0

How Independents can spoil BJP’s prospects in UP? See the constituencies below. Constituency MATHURA**(Note here BJP received 4 times postal votes compared to other parties)

Constituency KANPUR

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. MANVENDRA CHOUDHARY DR.GYANVATI SINGH CHOUDHARY TEJVEER HARPAL OM RAJKUMAR SATISH BIJENDRA KUNVAR NARAYAN BALBIR VIDHYA PHAKKAR DEVKI AJAY

. M M F M

56 51 70 45

GEN GEN GEN GEN

M M M M M M M M F M M M

31 46 29 38 54 38 40 40 40 58 42 26

GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN SC GEN GEN GEN

. SHRIPRAKASH

. M

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59

GEN

Party INC BSP RLD BJP

Votes Polled 187376 149236 144314 102789

IND LP(S) NCP IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND TOTAL Party INC

4321 2414 2292 2226 1659 1179 1066 873 647 576 527 360 601855 Votes Polled 211104

Postal Votes 24 32 52 218 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 332 Postal Votes 5

Total 187400 149268 144366 103007 4321 2414 2294 2226 1659 1179 1066 874 647 577 529 360 602187 Total 211109

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Constituency JHANSI

Constituency ALLAHABAD

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SATYA HAJI ANUBHAV SUBHASHINI MOHD. CHANDRA SAROJ SUNIL RAVI JAGANNATH CHANDRAMANI RAM AJEET MANOHAR SANJEEV

M M M F M M F M M M M M M M M

CHANDRAPAL BABU RAJENDRA RAJENDRA HEERA HARIDAS ARVIND SUNU VINOD CHAMAN RAMJI PREM MATU KALOO ASHOK ARVIND

. M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M

47 65 65 50 44 29 31 55 28 68 36 37 39 64 38 32

GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN SC GEN SC SC SC GEN GEN SC SC SC GEN

KUNWAR

. M

60

GEN

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56 49 26 57 50 38 37 29 29 61 41 63 49 38 30

GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN SC GEN SC SC GEN SC GEN SC GEN

BJP SP BSP CPM IND ABHM IND AD IND IND IND RSBP IND IND BSDP TOTAL Party SP BSP BJP INC IND IND AD IND IND IND IND SMSP RSMD IND IND IND TOTAL Party SP

205461 159354 27961 4558 1975 1607 1070 957 945 822 721 644 615 477 427 618698 Votes Polled 238781 212483 206584 104582 15065 10033 8505 7578 3730 2352 1998 1909 1860 1489 1395 1292 819636 Votes Polled 234001

10 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 Postal Votes 1 0 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Postal Votes 7

205471 159361 27962 4558 1975 1607 1070 957 945 822 721 644 615 477 427 618721 Total 238782 212483 206591 104584 15065 10033 8505 7578 3730 2352 1998 1909 1860 1489 1395 1292 819646 Total 234008

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Constituency ROBERTSGANJ

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DR.M.M JOSHI R.K.SINGH SATYA RAJ SHYAM RAJENDRA SAMAR MANNI KAILASH MOHD HARI JAGDEESH RAM RAJU ARVIND AMARNATH BRIJ BALLABH

M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M

70 44 65 51 39 39 40 25 37 51 62 32 45 30 29 25 25 53

GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN SC GEN GEN SC SC GEN GEN GEN SC GEN GEN

LALCHANDRA PAKAURI RAM BRIJ RAM SHRAVAN PREM TEERATHRAJ ASHOK

. M M M M M M M M M

55 51 38 72 42 36 31 50 36

(SC) SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC

RAMJAG RAMESH DAYA AMRESH BHUPENDRA

M M M M M

44 26 50 28 30

SC SC SC SC SC

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BJP BSP INC AD IND IND IND IND IND IND IND BKRP SSD IND IND IND IJP SVSP TOTAL Party BSP SP BJP INC AD IND PMSP IND CPI(ML) (L) RSMD IND IND IND VP TOTAL

205592 111573 40541 25426 7755 4930 3820 2886 2700 2696 2664 2605 2458 2313 1253 1199 1099 939 656450 Votes Polled 189521 179152 167195 65914 41459 18949 15475 11746 11120 7291 5997 4730 3737 2511 724797

33 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 48 0 7 16 2 2 0 0 0 0

205625 111576 40545 25426 7755 4930 3820 2886 2700 2696 2664 2605 2459 2313 1253 1199 1099 939 656498 Total 189521 179159 167211 65916 41461 18949 15475 11746 11120

0 0 0 0 0 27

7291 5997 4730 3737 2511 724824

Postal Votes

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Constituency VARANASI

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. DR.RAJESH MISHRA SHANKAR ATAHAR AMIR ANJANA SHALENDRA KANHAYA DR.HEERA RAM SURESH NARENDRA DINESH RAJ RAMJI KAMAL KHAGENDRA GANESH LALJI

. M M M M F M M M M M M M M M M M M M

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44 66 50 42 48 37 31 46 28 27 37 38 30 42 35 41 40 45

GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN SC GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN SC

Party INC BJP AD BSP SP IND SBSP CPM IND IND IND PMSP IND IND GGP IND IND PTSS TOTAL

Votes Polled 206902 149462 93228 59518 59104 28532 7550 6379 5878 2733 2477 2110 2091 2006 1824 1297 1069 908 633068

Postal Votes 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9

Total 206904 149468 93228 59518 59104 28533 7550 6379 5878 2733 2477 2110 2091 2006 1824 1297 1069 908 633077

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Examples for how limited number of independents can help BJP win a constituency? Constituency

.

.

GORAKHPUR

ADITYA JAMUNA PRADEEP SHARDENDU MILAN CHANDRA GOPAL RAM MAHANTH

M M M M M M M M M

Constituency

.

.

MAHARAJGANJ

PANKAJ AKHILESH HARSH TALAT RAM OM PASHUPATI GAURI RANJEET AMAR

M M M F M M M M M M

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Party 30 50 38 59 31 42 31 30 59

GEN GEN GEN GEN SC GEN GEN GEN GEN

BJP SP BSP INC IND AD SBSP IND ABHM TOTAL Party

40 39 56 58 32 30 43 40 48 36

GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN SC

BJP SP INC BSP IND BEP IND AD IND IND TOTAL

Votes Polled 353619 211606 70448 33477 8785 3225 3081 2716 2260 689217 Votes Polled 228697 163902 161552 157438 11993 6217 5093 4328 4220 3174 746614

Postal Votes 28 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 31 Postal Votes 5 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8

Total 353647 211608 70449 33477 8785 3225 3081 2716 2260 689248 Total 228702 163903 161554 157438 11993 6217 5093 4328 4220 3174 746622

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Apna Dal Votes polled By Constituency - They tilted few victories away from runner ups and most of the times the affected party was BJP. Total Independent votes polled By Constituency - They tilted few victories away from runner ups and most of the times the affected party was BJP Consituency Party Total AGRA AD 546 IND 9637 AKBARPUR AD 29254 IND 14048 ALIGARH IND 10577 ALLAHABAD AD 25426 IND 32216 AMETHI AD 11280 IND 30144 AMROHA IND 303464 AONLA IND 32394 AZAMGARH AD 3438 IND 21943 BAGHPAT IND 9016 BAHRAICH AD 5034 IND 13181 BALLIA AD 1458 IND 12353 BALRAMPUR AD 3427 IND 26160 BANDA AD 5200 IND 20790 BANSGAON IND 17538 BARA AD 4673 IND 17896 BAREILLY AD 3005 IND 23850 BASTI AD 6513 IND 22714 BIJNOR (SC) IND 18837 BILHAUR AD 4777 IND 12923 BUDAUN IND 4532

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BULANDSHAHR CHAIL CHANDAULI DEORIA DOMARIAGANJ ETAH ETAWAH FAIZABAD FARRUKHABAD FATEHPUR FIROZABAD GHATAMPUR GHAZIPUR GHOSI GONDA GORAKHPUR HAMIRPUR HAPUR HARDOI HATHRAS JALAUN

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IND AD IND AD IND AD IND AD IND IND AD IND AD IND AD IND AD IND IND AD IND AD IND AD IND AD IND AD IND AD IND IND IND IND AD IND

18644 18237 15643 18520 12475 26161 17825 3531 28474 3735 1239 11253 19169 37021 4486 52351 10861 14202 9391 46022 7716 1264 18688 8336 29921 4460 28924 3225 11501 4058 39270 15693 20633 7835 9738 13113

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JALESAR JAUNPUR JHANSI KAIRANA KAISERGANJ KANNAUJ KANPUR KHALILABAD KHERI KHURJA LALGANJ LUCKNOW MACHHLISHAHR MAHARAJGANJ MAINPURI MATHURA MEERUT MIRZAPUR MISRIKH MOHANLALGANJ MORADABAD MUZAFFARNAGAR

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AD IND AD IND AD IND IND AD IND AD IND AD IND AD IND AD IND IND IND AD IND AD IND AD IND IND IND IND AD IND AD IND AD IND IND IND

513 8249 28971 11181 8505 44932 14370 2178 18411 3945 9539 957 6625 2548 30240 3227 28984 14149 17994 2804 77842 29746 24045 4328 24480 10531 13438 7368 17350 11633 4101 17982 5044 21035 51672 15922

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PADRAUNA PHULPUR PILIBHIT PRATAPGARH RAMPUR ROBERTSGANJ SAHARANPUR SAIDPUR SALEMPUR SAMBHAL SHAHABAD SHAHJAHANPUR SITAPUR SULTANPUR UNNAO VARANASI RAEBARELI

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AD IND AD IND AD IND AD IND AD IND AD IND IND AD IND AD IND IND AD IND AD IND AD IND AD IND AD IND AD IND AD IND

7743 16631 80388 34842 3194 22499 22115 36546 1748 30857 41461 45159 20391 10938 46389 2182 16509 15020 4570 17870 2224 24033 27881 18096 12207 25441 7072 17130 93228 46084 9969 33364

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