How To Win Uttar Pradesh In 12 Days

Jaago Re – Target 100% polling How to win Uttar Pradesh? This is a summary of the parliament elections held in UP from 1996 to 2004. Please take a note of the following before reading this article. -

Orange highlighted constituencies are those won by BJP or JD(U). A context is explained followed by an example of the data. The example constituency is chosen in a random manner and there may be one or more constituencies which may fit the criteria

Highlights (Based on data analyzed from elections 1996 to 2004) • • • • •

• •

BJP will win majority of the seats in Uttar Pradesh, if the polling percentage crosses 75% mark. BJP has a strong presence among middle class voters and government employees. This is evident from the postal vote results of election 2004. BJP was ahead than other parties or equaled others in postal votes in 63 constituencies. There were extreme situations where BJP secured 4 times more postal votes than all other parties (e.g Mathura) Independents and smaller parties are eating in to the vote share of the national parties and majority of the time BJP is on the receiving end. E.g. Dr. M.M Joshi’s defeat in Allahabad last time is partly due to the presence of a large number of independents. BJP should investigate if any hidden hands are behind this many independents appearing for election. Lesser the number of candidates, advantage is for national parties and BJP has gained heavily in these situations (E.g Gorakhpur, Maharajganj) In the changed scenario, after tie up with Ajith Singh’s RLD , the combined team can now easily win 6-7 seats. These seats are as below  BIJNOR (SC) - RLD WON, in 2004  AMROHA - BJP + RLD will cross 4 lakh votes twice the value of the winner of 2004 elections  BAGHPAT - RLD Won in 2004 with BJP + RLD the total votes will corss 4.5 lakh mark. BJP was in 3rd place  KAIRANA - RLD Won in 2004 with BJP +RLD the total votes will touch 6 lakh mark . BJP was in 3rd place  KHURJA- BJP won in 2004, but with RLD the majority will cross the 1lakh mark  BULANDSHAHR -BJP won in 2004 and Kalyan Singh was the winner. The RLD was the runner up here and Kalyan's majority was 16,600 . Now with Kalyan in opposite camp, BJP + RLD need to work to cross this number. Here Akhil Bharatha Hindu Mahasabha got 3000 votes.  MATHURA - BJP +RLD will cross 2.5 lakh votes almost 1.5 times the existing majority ..Currently RLD is in 3rd postion and BJP in 4th ABHM (Akhil Bharatheeya Hindu Mahasabha) scored 25000 votes across 9 constituencies. There should not be any divison of hindu votes in this election Apna Dal is another small party which can break the pot. They have presence in few constituencies and they tilted few victories away from runner ups and most of the times the affected party was BJP.

Now having said all these here are the statistics for reinforcing our campaign strategy and make sure that we score the highest marks (read seats) in a scoring paper (read win majority of seats in UP)

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Jaago Re – Target 100% polling

Year

STATE

Electors

TotalVoters

% Polled

Seats Contested By BJP

Seats Won By BJP

% of Votes Polled for BJP

2004

UTTAR PRADESH (no of constituencies - 80 as 5 went to Uttarakhand) UTTAR PRADESH ( No of Constituencies - 85) UTTAR PRADESH ( No of Constituencies - 85) UTTAR PRADESH STATE

110624490

53278071

48.16%

77

10

22.17%

102946404

55107957

53.53%

77

29

27.64%

101982480

56593465

55.49%

82

57

36.49%

100826305 Electors

46885634 Total Voters

46.50% % Polled

83 Seats Contested By BSP

52 Seat Won By BSP

33.44% %of Votes Polled for BSP

UTTAR PRADESH (no of constituencies - 80 as 5 went to Uttarakhand) UTTAR PRADESH ( No of Constituencies - 85) UTTAR PRADESH ( No of Constituencies - 85) UTTAR PRADESH

110624490

53278071

48.16%

80

19

24.67%

102946404

55107957

53.53%

85

14

22.08%

101982480

56593465

55.49%

85

4

20.90%

100826305

46885634

46.50%

85

6

20.61%

1999 1998 1996 Year

2004 1999 1998 1996

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Jaago Re – Target 100% polling

Year

STATE

Electors

Total Voters

% Polled

Seats Contested By SP

Seat Won By SP

2004

UTTAR PRADESH (no of constituencies - 80 as 5 went to Uttarakhand) UTTAR PRADESH ( No of Constituencies - 85) UTTAR PRADESH ( No of Constituencies - 85) UTTAR PRADESH

110624490

53278071

48.16%

68

35

%of Votes Polled for SP 26.74%

102946404

55107957

53.53%

84

26

24.06%

101982480

56593465

55.49%

81

20

28.70%

100826305

46885634

46.50%

64

16

20.84%

1999 1998 1996

2004 Election Report Card For BJP No Of Seats Won By BJP (incl 1 seat of JD(U)

11

No Of Seats where BJP is runner up

21

No of Seats where BJP is in 3rd place

32

No of Seats where BJP is in 4th place

13

No of Seats where BJP Is in 5th place

2

BJP didn't contest 1 seat Salempur

1

Total Seats

80

Consituency AGRA AKBARPUR ALIGARH ALLAHABAD AMETHI AMROHA

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BJP Position

Total 2 3 2 2 3 4

Our Symbol Lotus

57361 264134 2876 28409 334736 157005

Jaago Re – Target 100% polling

AONLA AZAMGARH BAGHPAT BAHRAICH BALLIA BALRAMPUR BANDA BANSGAON BARA BAREILLY BASTI BIJNOR (SC) BILHAUR BUDAUN BULANDSHAHR CHAIL CHANDAULI DEORIA DOMARIAGANJ ETAH ETAWAH FAIZABAD FARRUKHABAD FATEHPUR FIROZABAD GHATAMPUR GHAZIPUR GHOSI GONDA GORAKHPUR HAMIRPUR HAPUR HARDOI HATHRAS JALAUN

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1 5 3 3 3 1 3 4 3 1 2 3 3 2 1 3 3 2 4 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 4 2 1 4 2 3 1 1

Our Symbol Lotus

6871 223505 250859 45169 160620 52613 62710 53497 80394 59636 25380 200259 63513 51323 16630 96040 22829 52235 87441 51343 190157 33561 40029 62111 54796 37278 226811 147508 37011 142013 176502 42374 86974 22798 26773

Jaago Re – Target 100% polling

JALESAR JAUNPUR JHANSI KAIRANA KAISERGANJ KANNAUJ KANPUR KHALILABAD KHERI KHURJA LALGANJ LUCKNOW MACHHLISHAHR MAHARAJGANJ MAINPURI MATHURA MEERUT MIRZAPUR MISRIKH MOHANLALGANJ MORADABAD MUZAFFARNAGAR PADRAUNA PHULPUR PILIBHIT PRATAPGARH RAE RAMPUR ROBERTSGANJ SAHARANPUR SAIDPUR SALEMPUR SAMBHAL SHAHABAD SHAHJAHANPUR

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2 4 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 4 3 2 3 3 2 2 4 3 1 5 4 4 3 3 3

106075 109470 32191 448067 12668 352022 5643 57297 28756 41137 121030 218329 66515 64795 349300 84587 85303 36418 131351 32600 35842 69014 90879 113938 102721 217300 346817 167608 22326 122935 70800

4 2 4

282232 46378 117222

(blank)

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Jaago Re – Target 100% polling

SITAPUR SULTANPUR UNNAO VARANASI Grand Total

3 4 3 2

33914 170267 83676 57440 8368947

BJP Runner Up Seats & Defeat Margin Constituency AGRA ALIGARH ALLAHABAD BASTI BUDAUN DEORIA ETAH ETAWAH FAIZABAD FIROZABAD GHAZIPUR GONDA HAPUR JALESAR KAISERGANJ KANPUR MIRZAPUR MORADABAD MUZAFFARNAGAR SHAHABAD

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Defeat Margin 57,361 2,876 28,409 25,380 51,323 52,235 51,343 190,157 33,561 54,796 226,811 37,011 42,374 106,075 12,668 5,643 36,418 35,842 69,014 46,378

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Margin < 10,000 Margin > 10,000 <50,000 Margin >50,000 < 100,000 Margin > 100,000

2 seats 9 seats 7 seats 3 seats

Jaago Re – Target 100% polling

VARANASI

57,440

BJP No.3 Seats and Defeat Margin Constituency AKBARPUR AMETHI BAGHPAT BAHRAICH BALLIA BANDA BARA BIJNOR (SC) BILHAUR CHAIL CHANDAULI FARRUKHABAD FATEHPUR GHATAMPUR HARDOI JHANSI KAIRANA KANNAUJ KHALILABAD KHERI LALGANJ MACHHLISHAHR

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Defeat Margin 264,134 334,736 250,859 45,169 160,620 62,710 80,394 200,259 63,513 96,040 22,829 40,029 62,111 37,278 86,974 32,191 448,067 352,022 57,297 28,756 121,030 66,515

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Margin < 50,000 Margin > 50,000 < 100,000 Margin > 100,000 < 200,000 Margin > 200,000 < 300,000 Margin > 300,000

Jaago Re – Target 100% polling

MAINPURI MEERUT MISRIKH MOHANLALGANJ PHULPUR ROBERTSGANJ

349,300 85,303 131,351 32,600 113,938 22,326

SAHARANPUR SAIDPUR SITAPUR BJP Leads in Postal Votes in 63 constituencies or equalled in number of postal votes with other parites

122,935 70,800 33,914

Constituency

BJP Postion (1 is winner, 2 is runner up etc)

Did BJP got a lead in Postal Votes

No of Postal Votes BJP secured

AGRA AKBARPUR ALIGARH ALLAHABAD AMROHA AONLA AZAMGARH BANDA BANSGAON BARA BAREILLY BASTI BUDAUN BULANDSHAHR CHAIL CHANDAULI DEORIA DOMARIAGANJ ETAH

2 3 2 2 4 1 5 3 4 3 1 2 2 1 3 3 2 4 2

Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

30 15 123 33 3 0 30 28 7 20 8 8 2 22 27 22 10 1 24

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Jaago Re – Target 100% polling

ETAWAH FAIZABAD FARRUKHABAD FATEHPUR FIROZABAD GHATAMPUR GHAZIPUR GONDA GORAKHPUR HAPUR HARDOI HATHRAS JALAUN JALESAR JAUNPUR JHANSI KAISERGANJ KANNAUJ KANPUR KHALILABAD KHERI KHURJA LALGANJ LUCKNOW MACHHLISHAHR MAHARAJGANJ MATHURA* MEERUT MIRZAPUR MISRIKH MOHANLALGANJ MORADABAD MUZAFFARNAGAR PADRAUNA PHULPUR RAMPUR ROBERTSGANJ

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2 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 2 4 3 2 3 2 3 3 1 3 1 3 1 4 3 2 3 3 2 2 4 3 4 3

Our Symbol Lotus

Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

18 82 30 31 31 19 75 22 28 27 18 39 20 22 9 7 9 22 10 2 7 13 51 48 17 5 218* 6 8 3 17 2 13 6 27 4 16

Jaago Re – Target 100% polling

SAHARANPUR 3 Y SAIDPUR 3 Y SHAHABAD 2 Y SITAPUR 3 Y SULTANPUR 4 Y UNNAO 3 Y VARANASI 2 Y Example of Mathura* Constituency Where BJP secured 4 times more postal votes than any other party MANVENDRA M 56 GEN INC CHOUDHARY M 51 GEN BSP . DR.GYANVATI SINGH F 70 GEN RLD MATHURA CHOUDHARY TEJVEER M 45 GEN BJP . HARPAL M 31 GEN IND . OM M 46 GEN LP(S) . RAJKUMAR M 29 GEN NCP . SATISH M 38 GEN IND . BIJENDRA M 54 GEN IND . KUNVAR M 38 GEN IND . NARAYAN M 40 GEN IND . BALBIR M 40 GEN IND . VIDHYA F 40 SC IND . PHAKKAR M 58 GEN IND . DEVKI M 42 GEN IND . AJAY M 26 GEN IND TOTA L Examples for . How Independents eat in to BJP candidae's vote share KUNWAR M ALLAHABAD DR.M.M JOSHI M . R.K.SINGH M . SATYA M . RAJ M . SHYAM M . RAJENDRA M

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10 28 13 3 32 27 6 187376 149236 144314 102789 4321 2414 2292 2226 1659 1179 1066 873 647 576 527 360 601855

60 70 44 65 51 39 39

24 32 52 218 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 332

GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN

187400 149268 144366 103007 4321 2414 2294 2226 1659 1179 1066 874 647 577 529 360 602187

SP BJP BSP INC AD IND IND

84,587

234001 205592 111573 40541 25426 7755 4930

7 33 3 4 0 0 0

234008 205625 111576 40545 25426 7755 4930

Jaago Re – Target 100% polling

. . . . . . . . . . . .

SAMAR MANNI KAILASH MOHD HARI JAGDEESH RAM RAJU ARVIND AMARNATH BRIJ BALLABH

M M M M M M M M M M M M

40 25 37 51 62 32 45 30 29 25 25 53

GEN SC GEN GEN SC SC GEN GEN GEN SC GEN GEN

IND IND IND IND IND BKRP SSD IND IND IND IJP SVSP TOTAL

3820 2886 2700 2696 2664 2605 2458 2313 1253 1199 1099 939 656450

0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 48

3820 2886 2700 2696 2664 2605 2459 2313 1253 1199 1099 939 656498

ROBERTSGANJ . . . . . .

LALCHANDRA PAKAURI RAM BRIJ RAM SHRAVAN PREM TEERATHRAJ ASHOK

M M M M M M M M M

55 51 38 72 42 36 31 50 36

SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC

189521 179152 167195 65914 41459 18949 15475 11746 11120

0 7 16 2 2 0 0 0 0

189521 179159 167211 65916 41461 18949 15475 11746 11120

. . . . .

RAMJAG RAMESH DAYA AMRESH BHUPENDRA

M M M M M

44 26 50 28 30

SC SC SC SC SC

BSP SP BJP INC AD IND PMSP IND CPI(ML)(L ) RSMD IND IND IND VP TOTAL

7291 5997 4730 3737 2511 724797

0 0 0 0 0 27

7291 5997 4730 3737 2511 724824

VARANASI . . .

DR.RAJESH MISHRA SHANKAR ATAHAR AMIR ANJANA

M M M M F

44 66 50 42 48

GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN

INC BJP AD BSP SP

206902 149462 93228 59518 59104

2 6 0 0 0

206904 149468 93228 59518 59104

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Jaago Re – Target 100% polling

. . . . . . . . . . . .

JHANSI

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SHALENDRA KANHAYA DR.HEERA RAM SURESH NARENDRA DINESH RAJ RAMJI KAMAL KHAGENDRA GANESH LALJI

M M M M M M M M M M M M M

37 31 46 28 27 37 38 30 42 35 41 40 45

GEN GEN GEN SC GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN SC

IND SBSP CPM IND IND IND PMSP IND IND GGP IND IND PTSS TOTAL

28532 7550 6379 5878 2733 2477 2110 2091 2006 1824 1297 1069 908 633068

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9

28533 7550 6379 5878 2733 2477 2110 2091 2006 1824 1297 1069 908 633077

CHANDRAPAL BABU RAJENDRA RAJENDRA HEERA HARIDAS ARVIND SUNU VINOD CHAMAN RAMJI PREM MATU KALOO ASHOK ARVIND

M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M

47 65 65 50 44 29 31 55 28 68 36 37 39 64 38 32

GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN SC GEN SC SC SC GEN GEN SC SC SC GEN

SP BSP BJP INC IND IND AD IND IND IND IND SMSP RSMD IND IND IND TOTAL

238781 212483 206584 104582 15065 10033 8505 7578 3730 2352 1998 1909 1860 1489 1395 1292 819636

1 0 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10

238782 212483 206591 104584 15065 10033 8505 7578 3730 2352 1998 1909 1860 1489 1395 1292 819646

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Jaago Re – Target 100% polling

Examples for How limited number of independents can help BJP win a constituency Constituency GORAKHPUR

. ADITYA JAMUNA PRADEEP SHARDENDU MILAN CHANDRA GOPAL RAM MAHANTH

. M M M M M M M M M

30 50 38 59 31 42 31 30 59

GEN GEN GEN GEN SC GEN GEN GEN GEN

BJP SP BSP INC IND AD SBSP IND ABHM TOTAL

353619 211606 70448 33477 8785 3225 3081 2716 2260 .

28 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 31

353647 211608 70449 33477 8785 3225 3081 2716 2260 689248

Constituency MAHARAJGANJ

. PANKAJ AKHILESH HARSH TALAT RAM OM PASHUPATI GAURI RANJEET AMAR

. M M M F M M M M M M

40 39 56 58 32 30 43 40 48 36

GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN GEN SC

BJP SP INC BSP IND BEP IND AD IND IND TOTAL

228697 163902 161552 157438 11993 6217 5093 4328 4220 3174 746614

5 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8

228702 163903 161554 157438 11993 6217 5093 4328 4220 3174 746622

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Jaago Re – Target 100% polling

Apna Dal Votes polled By Constituency - They tilted few victories away from runner ups and most of the times the affected party was BJP AGRA AD 546 AKBARPUR AD 29254 ALLAHABAD AD 25426 AMETHI AD 11280 AZAMGARH AD 3438 BAHRAICH AD 5034 BALLIA AD 1458 BALRAMPUR AD 3427 BANDA AD 5200 BARA AD 4673 BAREILLY AD 3005 BASTI AD 6513 BILHAUR AD 4777 CHAIL AD 18237 CHANDAULI AD 18520 DEORIA AD 26161 DOMARIAGANJ AD 3531 ETAWAH AD 1239 FAIZABAD AD 19169 FARRUKHABAD AD 4486 FATEHPUR AD 10861 GHATAMPUR AD 46022 GHAZIPUR AD 1264 GHOSI AD 8336 GONDA AD 4460 GORAKHPUR AD 3225 HAMIRPUR AD 4058 JALAUN AD 9738 JALESAR AD 513 JAUNPUR AD 28971 JHANSI AD 8505 KAISERGANJ AD 2178 KANNAUJ AD 3945

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Jaago Re – Target 100% polling

KANPUR KHALILABAD KHERI LUCKNOW MACHHLISHAHR MAHARAJGANJ MIRZAPUR MISRIKH MOHANLALGANJ PADRAUNA PHULPUR PILIBHIT PRATAPGARH RAMPUR ROBERTSGANJ SAIDPUR SALEMPUR SHAHABAD SHAHJAHANPUR SITAPUR SULTANPUR UNNAO VARANASI RAEBARELI

AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD AD

957 2548 3227 2804 29746 4328 17350 4101 5044 7743 80388 3194 22115 1748 41461 10938 2182 4570 2224 27881 12207 7072 93228 9969

Total Independent votes polled By Constituency - They tilted few victories away from runner ups and most of the times the

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Jaago Re – Target 100% polling

affected party was BJP AGRA AKBARPUR ALIGARH ALLAHABAD AMETHI AMROHA AONLA AZAMGARH BAGHPAT BAHRAICH BALLIA BALRAMPUR BANDA BANSGAON BARA BAREILLY BASTI BIJNOR (SC) BILHAUR BUDAUN BULANDSHAHR CHAIL CHANDAULI DEORIA DOMARIAGANJ ETAH ETAWAH FAIZABAD FARRUKHABAD FATEHPUR FIROZABAD GHATAMPUR GHAZIPUR GHOSI GONDA

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IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND

Our Symbol Lotus

9637 14048 10577 32216 30144 303464 32394 21943 9016 13181 12353 26160 20790 17538 17896 23850 22714 18837 12923 4532 18644 15643 12475 17825 28474 3735 11253 37021 52351 14202 9391 7716 18688 29921 28924

Jaago Re – Target 100% polling

GORAKHPUR HAMIRPUR HAPUR HARDOI HATHRAS JALAUN JALESAR JAUNPUR JHANSI KAIRANA KAISERGANJ KANNAUJ KANPUR KHALILABAD KHERI KHURJA LALGANJ LUCKNOW MACHHLISHAHR MAHARAJGANJ MAINPURI MATHURA MEERUT MIRZAPUR MISRIKH MOHANLALGANJ MORADABAD MUZAFFARNAGAR PADRAUNA PHULPUR PILIBHIT PRATAPGARH RAMPUR ROBERTSGANJ SAHARANPUR SAIDPUR

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IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND

Our Symbol Lotus

11501 39270 15693 20633 7835 13113 8249 11181 44932 14370 18411 9539 6625 30240 28984 14149 17994 77842 24045 24480 10531 13438 7368 11633 17982 21035 51672 15922 16631 34842 22499 36546 30857 45159 20391 46389

Jaago Re – Target 100% polling

SALEMPUR SAMBHAL SHAHABAD SHAHJAHANPUR SITAPUR SULTANPUR UNNAO VARANASI RAEBARELI

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IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND

Our Symbol Lotus

16509 15020 17870 24033 18096 25441 17130 46084 33364