Global Trends In Culture, Infrastruture, And Values By Andy Hines

By Andy Hines

Global Trends in Culture, Infrastructure, and Values

Electrification and broadband communications are contributing to profound shifts in global values and cultures. EDGE69 / ISTOCKPHOTO.COM

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he futurists and analysts at Social Technologies have spent years analyzing global consumer trends for our clients. We grouped these trends into five categories: demography, rising wealth, culture, infrastructure, and values. In the last issue of THE FUTURIST, we described global trends related to rising global wealth and changing demographics. Now we turn to trends in culture, public infrastructure, and

values that will be shaping your world in the years to come. Cultural Trends Just a decade or so ago, sociologists and best-selling authors such as Benjamin Barber, author of Jihad vs. McWorld: How Globalism and Tribalism Are Reshaping the World (Ballantine 1996), were concerned about a homogenization of global culture

dominated by the United States and its powerful entertainment industry. It was feared that Hollywood and Baywatch were taking over the global culture. It turns out that local cultures are more robust than was thought. People are quite capable of taking the aspects of global culture they like, ignoring the rest, and holding tight to what they love about their native cultures. The following cluster of

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Consumer Trends in Three Different Worlds, Part 2 In my previous article for THE FUTURIST, I discussed 10 of the most important trends changing the face of business in three different “worlds.” Throughout the analysis, we referred to World 1 (W1), World 2 (W2), and World 3 (W3) as our three “worlds” based on an index that rates a country’s economic and social development and technological capability and groups them among peers. The United States, western Europe, Japan, Korea, and Australia were counted in W1, which consists of

trends explores how some of this will shake out in the coming decades. Trend 1: Cultural multipolarity . New centers of cultural excellence are arising across the globe. For instance, the world’s largest film industry is in India. Nokia, in Finland, has emerged as a leader in mobile DEVICEDESIGN!MAPOFCOMMUNICAtions flows a decade or two ago would have characterized information flows with one-way arrows from W1 to W2 to W3 — with the United 3TATESASTHEDOMINANTTRANSMITTER! map today, and into the future, will more likely be characterized by many two-way arrows, as W1 increasingly recognizes the value of ideas from across the globe. This trend raises an interesting issue about the emergence of cultural centers of excellence and their potential influence on the global division OF LABOR!S NATIONS INTEGRATE ECOnomically and culturally, our global civilization may become more sophisticated about this division of labor. If a certain region provides the best of a particular product or ser-

fewer than a billion people in the affluent countries. W2 is the large segment of 3 to 4 billion in the nations or regions that are relatively balanced in terms of needs and resources, such as fast-growing India and China and slower-growing Latin America and eastern Europe. W3 consists of the 1 to 2 billion people who are in dire straits, including most of Africa, Bangladesh, and Haiti. — Andy Hines

vice, is it likely that other regions (or nations) will readily adapt and move to other products and services? Some nations are already experimenting with this concept on a microscale. Japan’s Teletopia project seeks to link MUNICIPALITIESTOGETHERINANETwork, with each city specializing in information technology applications. Business implications: While this idea of a global division of labor is compelling from an efficiency point of view, there are challenges to this approach. First, it requires a high degree of trust that dominant centers of excellence will play fair. It would require appropriate checks and balances — and national security will be a concern. Second, there is the danger of too much efficiency creating fragile systems that lack resiliency (see Barry C. Lynn’s excellent treatment in End of the Line: The Rise and Coming Fall of the Global Corporation). For example, if all production is centered in a certain area, and a natural disaster, or even an unforeseen natural phenomenon, hits that area, a global ecoTHE FUTURIST

nomic crisis could arise. In China, for instance, allocating too much agricultural activity to the water-scarce north has already resulted in water shortages in that region. Third, rising energy costs may end up favoring more diversity at the local level, rather than global centralization and distribution schemes. Trend 2: Media spread. While media is spreading rapidly, there is still plenty of room for expansion. Just 19% of the global population is on the Internet, and half the world’s population has mobile phones. Obviously, penetration rates are much higher in W1 than W2 and W3. Even so, few places on the planet still lack access. Solar-powered wireless setups mean that even remote areas of THE!MAZONBASINCANLINKINTOTHE global communications grid. Some repressive governments such AS.ORTH+OREA -YANMAR"URMA and to some extent China have been able to limit access to media, but such countries are likely fighting a losing battle in the long run. Human ingenuity and the desire for unfettered access to information are strong allies. Business implications: Perhaps the more interesting longer-term question is this: How do we get around THE  DEMANDS ON ONES time? Perhaps communication-free zones, or even blocks of time, may emerge. Organizations may say that Sundays are off-limits except from TOPM There may also be money to be made actually selling freedom from communications. Remember the old television show Fantasy Island? Perhaps we’ll see a new Privacy Island. Whereas Internet access used to be a perk, inaccessibility could be a future perk. The concept is not entirely new. &RENCHSITUATIONIST'UY$EBORD AUthor of Society of the Spectacle, argued AS EARLY AS THE S THAT MODERN mass media had a toxic effect on PEOPLE $EBORD CALLED FOR PUBLIC spaces to be set aside as mass-mediafree zones, places where people could experience “a moment of life,” without the intrusion of any sort of media or any commercial message. The situationists in essence were the first group to perceive a market for September-October 2008 www.wfs.org

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QUIET BUT BEINGUNAPOLOGETIC-ARXists, they called that market by a different name. Today, “writer’s rooms” across the country in cities like New York, Chicago, and Boston do a brisk business in selling little more than a quiet SPACETOSITANDCONCENTRATE!NDPRIvate spas market themselves not only as spa-service providers, but as places cut off from the rest of the world. Of course, this may ultimately prove to be a generational issue, as the emerging Gen Y is not only more comfortable with around-the-clock connectivity, but demands it. Trend 3: Cultural flow. !DD CULtural multipolarity to media spread, and the result is cultural flow. In the coming years, expect to see new ideas, including products and services, coming from practically every CORNEROFTHEPLANET!NEARLYINDICAtor may be the growing numbers of teens and young adults who think of themselves as global or planetary citizens. With so many communications options open to Gen Y, youths of today are making online friends around the world. -Y COLLEAGUES AND ) DISCOVERED this to be true when we conducted a STUDYFOR-46ABOUTTHEh&UTUREOF (APPINESSv WITH THE !SSOCIATED 0RESS!0 7ECAMEACROSSANINTEResting quote from one of the five DOZEN TO YEAR OLDSWEINTERviewed, who said: “I’ve never met my best friend.” That is, the young Gen Yer had never met face-to-face with the person he has been communicating with for years by e-mail. !DDITIONALLY ASURVEYCONDUCTEDBY !0OF YOUTHSFOUNDTHATOF Gen Yers surveyed made no distinction between online friends and the ONESTHEYSAWEVERYDAY!LTHOUGH they reported that they do not see technology as a replacement for faceto-face contact, they certainly see the Internet as means to access a greater range of friends and ideas. We are confident that, as these youth move into the workforce, they will accelerate the rate of cultural flow through having been immersed in different cultures from a much younger age. Business implications: The flows will not just be from W1 to W2 and 7!NINTERESTINGEXAMPLECOMES 20

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The network is spreading — and not just in W1, but everywhere. Global broadband subscribers totaled 235 million by December 2007, an increase of 17.5% from 200 million subscribers in December 2006.

from Southampton in the United Kingdom, which is experimenting with the adoption of the three-wheel “tuk-tuks” commonly seen in crowded megacities in W2 and W3. Traffic planners noted how effective these vehicles were for navigating in extremely dense traffic situations, and they figured an adapted version would be a neat solution to dense traffic in their W1 city. This suggests that organizations will benefit from having eyes and ears trained to remote corners across the globe in order to stay on the leading edge of creative and innovative ideas. But “eyes and ears” doesn’t necessarily mean a physical presence; rather, it means partnerships and arrangements with those who are “on the ground” at the poles of cultural excellence. Infrastructure Trends The primary challenge in W1 is to maintain and repair infrastructures. This is often a politically unpopular or unsexy topic, so it suffers from neGLECT)N THE!MERICAN3OCIETY of Civil Engineers estimated that the cost of repairing U.S. infrastructure would equal $1.6 trillion over the next five years. In W2 and W3, however, the primary challenge is buildING INFRASTRUCTURE -ANY BUSINESS ventures stumble due to the lack of

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this support. Several organizations working together will be better able to tackle these issues systematically. Trend 4: Electrification. Global access to electricity has risen by a little more than 10% annually, up from INTOIN/RGANIzations like the International Energy !GENCY INITS7ORLD%NERGY/UTLOOK forecast that electrification will reach 83% by 2030 and view it as a fundamental piece of infrastructure because it opens up access to a wide range of products and services. It is a key to raising living standards, and emerging-market governments are seeking to bring electricity to rural communities to stimulate development. That said, some regions continue to have dismally low rates of electriFICATION 3UB 3AHARAN!FRICAS RATE was just 23% in 2000, and some countries do even worse — such as 5GANDAATAWOEFUL Business implications: Electrification brings about significant changes to daily life, making it easier for people to cook, do chores, work after dark, and access information and “entertainment.” It typically increases the pace of daily life. It is also a precursor to bringing nations into a consumer economy. Trend 5: Networked world. To state the obvious, the network is spreading — and not just in W1, but every-

where. Global broadband subscribERSTOTALEDMILLIONBY$ECEMBER  AN INCREASE OF  FROM  MILLIONSUBSCRIBERSIN$ECEMBER according to the Organisation for %CONOMIC#O /PERATIONAND$EVELopment. Interestingly, some small nations have made strategic choices to be leaders in “connecting up,” surpassing some bigger and richer nations. For instance, with broadband Internet penetration approaching 80%, you would think that South Korea would be the most-wired nation on earth. Certainly it markets itself as such. But according to some official STATISTICS $ENMARK THE.ETHERLANDS and Switzerland have already surpassed South Korea. Singapore has become a global trading and communications hub. The United States, by some measures, is not even in the top 10 in terms of per capita broadband penetration. The next level of connection is making “dumb” devices smart, through either chips, tags, or implants. The falling cost of IT, the growth of tagging approaches such AS2&)$ ANDTHESPREADOFSENSORS and wireless capability are enabling greater connectivity among information devices. In turn, this generates new connections between people and objects, increasing information flows. Business implications:!NINTERESTing experiment might be to think of the questions you would want to ask a device — because, eventually, it will be capable of answering. Forwardthinking ideas like this will be key strategies for IT and businesses in the years to come. For instance, the firm Powerset is working on a “conversational search engine” they hope to bring to market in the next decade, if Google doesn’t beat them to it. Trend 6. Rising mobility. When it comes to mobility, more people are upgrading, moving farther and faster than before. This trend is at work in all three Worlds, and per capita passenger-kilometers are increasing. In W1, high-speed mobility is on the rise, though congestion challenges remain a big issue. Tourism is an increasingly important component of life in W1, with more and more people becoming inclined to collect

travel “experiences” instead of simply more material goods. The World 4OURISM/RGANIZATIONCOUNTED million tourist excursions during  GENERATINGBILLIONFORTHE GLOBALECONOMYTHATYEAR4HATS million more tourist excursions than IN W2 is the scene of the fastest change, as rapid economic development is bringing advanced mobility options — such as subways, personal cars, and air travel — within reach for more people. In several regions, plans are in place to make personal transportation more affordable. For EXAMPLE )NDIAS 4ATA -OTORS REcently introduced a “people’s car” FORJUSTA )NTERESTINGLY THEY have made a play at the premium end as well, making a bid to acquire Jaguar and Land Rover from Ford. Increased mobility accelerates the changes in daily life, too, and tends to integrate people into the consumer SOCIETY!T ITS MOST BASIC LEVEL INcreased mobility allows consumers to expand the boundaries of their lives. They gain access to greater options for shopping, employment, and social interaction. Better transportation enables workers to travel farther to reach a workplace. But more time spent traveling reduces time available for chores at home, which in turn drives up demand for time-saving household appliances. Similarly, shopping patterns will be affected, for less time means less-frequent shopping trips, but larger volumes of purchases. Just as we’ve seen in W1, items bought in bulk at a modern hypermarket will become an option. Business implications:!NOTHERIMportant consequence of increased personal mobility will be impacts on THEENVIRONMENT6EHICLESCONTRIBUTE to pollution, so if W2 and W3 adopt the car ownership patterns of W1, without dramatic advances in pollution control, the environmental consequences will be enormous not only for the offending nations, but for the planet as a whole. Values Trends 6ALUESARETHEBELIEFSTHATPEOPLE have about what is right and wrong and what is most important in life. THE FUTURIST

Values in the Three Worlds The three sets of values identified by political scientist Ronald Inglehart associate well with Social Technologies’ Three Worlds concept: W3 emphasizes traditional values focused on survival needs, including respect for authority, religious faith, national pride, obedience, work ethic, large families with strong family ties, a clear sense of good and evil, and respect for parents. W2 emphasizes modern values focused on achievement, including high trust in science and technology; faith in the state (bureaucratization); rejection of outgroups; appreciation of money, hard work, and determination; and a belief that women need children and children need both parents. W1 emphasizes postmodern values focused on self-expression, including an emphasis on individual responsibility and decision making, imagination, tolerance, life balance and satisfaction, ecology, leisure, free choice, and good health. — Andy Hines

In turn, these beliefs guide their beHAVIORANDACTIONS6ALUESALSOSERVE as long-term drivers of change, for one’s present attitudes and behaviors are always rooted in the values and choices of the past. Thus, to understand attitudes and behaviors of the future, the values of the present are a great place to start. The good news on the values front is the yeoman’s work of Ronald September-October 2008 www.wfs.org

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Inglehart of the University OF -ICHIGAN AND HIS COLleagues with the World 6ALUES3URVEY4HEYBEGAN tracking values changes in MORETHANCOUNTRIESIN THE S AND NOW INclude more than 100 nations in the survey they publish about every five years. Inglehart has found that, as nations grow economically, existence becomes more secure and people have the freedom to focus on goals that were previously given a lower priority. These long-term values shifts underpin the values trends below.

ditional values is enabling women to shed their traditional roles. Today, women in W2 are increasingly able to enter the paid workforce. In fact, microlending agencies have found that the most successful approach to stimulating grassroots economic development is to loan money to women. In World 1, women still bump into the glass ceiling in many large organizations. Cultural flow. A survey conducted by AP of 1,280 youths found that 25% of !S A RESULT WOMEN Gen Yers made no distinction between online friends and the ones they in the United States, Trend 7. Ethical con- saw every day. Although they reported that they do not see technology as led by immigrant a replacement for face-to-face contact, they certainly see the Internet as sumption. This trend fowomen, are starting means to access a greater range of friends and ideas across the globe. cuses on expressing one’s the majority of small values through the goods BUSINESSES-ANYSOand services purchased. In ciologists contend other words, it’s about voting with s#ORPORATEPHILANTHROPY!NEM- that feminine values generally center dollars. phasis on charities or causes that on relationships and trust; these val-YRIADPRODUCTSANDSERVICESNOW qualify as ethical. ues tend to be better adapted to the target this trend: We see things las0OLITICS4HISWILLBEREFLECTEDIN network model prevalent in knowlbeled fair trade, free range, blood- an organization’s support for ethi- edge economy organizations than less, guilt-free, organic, natural, CALLYMINDEDCANDIDATES$ONATIONS are masculine values, which, some cruelty-free, socially responsible, car- to particular parties may also receive sociologists argue, tend to be better bon-neutral, green, and grass-fed, scrutiny, thanks to sites like open- suited to the hierarchies that domiAMONGOTHERS!CCORDINGTOONEESTI- source.org. nated the industrial era. MATE ABOUTOF53CONSUMERS s!DVERTISING7HEREANDHOWA Business implications: Organizations today fit the profile of an ethical con- corporation advertises; whether it need to recognize women’s growing SUMER!NOTHER ESTIMATE INDICATES targets kids, and if so, how young? power as a factor in business and two-thirds of U.S. consumers have $OES IT EXPLICITLY OR IMPLICITLY EN- market planning. In more and more boycotted a major goods producer dorse politically charged issues, such countries, women are not only makON SOME ETHICAL GROUND !NOTHER as gay marriage? ing more of the buying decisions, but manifestation of this trend in the Business implications:!DDINGFUR- they are also increasingly running past decade has been an explosion of ther ammunition to this trend will be the businesses that are providing the socially conscious mutual funds. an array of new tools to help deter- products and services. Trend 9. Social freedom. Social -OVINGFORWARD AWIDEARRAYOF mine an organization’s ethical pronew ethical criteria could emerge in file. These may include Web sites freedom is growing around the the following areas. Expect to see dif- that allow consumers to create their world. When Ronald Inglehart, ferent groups calling for lots of dif- own ethical profile, and then provide LEADEROFTHE7ORLD6ALUES3URVEY ferent things, including: them with appropriate product and was asked to suggest where he saw s#ORPORATEHIRINGPRACTICES$I- service recommendations. This could the omega point of values trends, he versity in executive offices, hiring extend to other devices — such as cell suggested it is a move toward greater only documented legals, no sweat- PHONES 2&)$TAGS ORBARCODEREAD- choice and autonomy. Postmodern values, which are inshops, limited outsourcing of jobs. ers — that allow consumers to make s2$.OANIMALTESTING NOANI- on-the-spot product comparisons creasingly prevalent in W1, focus on mal cruelty, no human testing, possi- based on ethics. This could also ex- the importance of individual choices, bly no stem-cell testing. tend to ethical search engines tilted identity construction, and selfs0RODUCT HISTORY /NLY ORGANIC to favor the user ’s personalized expression. People tend to feel disillusioned with accumulating more minimal carbon footprint, largely lo- ethics. Trend 8. Women’s power. This material goods as a route to happical, no sweatshop labor, component or ingredient tracing, no toxic chemi- trend is perhaps most powerful in ness — the approach characteristic of World 2, where the relaxation of tra- modernizing nations. Instead, they cals. 22

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tend to emphasize inner satisfaction and the spiritual dimension, which in essence is a quest to figure out “what does it all mean?” Thus, we see the increasing popularity of medITATIONANDTRIPSTOTHEDAYSPA!N interesting indicator here is the explosion of research into happiness. Consumers are trying to figure out what really makes them happy. !TTHESAMETIME MANYCONSUMers complain about too many choices, AND WHO CAN BLAME THEM ! TRIP down the cold-medicine aisle can be an overwhelming experience. The good news is the potential for “smart” tools to help us deal with this choice overload. While it is sensible to be skeptical of technological fixes (similar promises have been made before) it is also becoming increasingly possible to automate routine choices and shift some of the decision-making burden to information and software devices and programs. Business implications: Imagine a future in which you could create a profile of preferences that product and service providers could then access — with your permission, of course — and thus avoid the need to constantly provide the same information. The profiles could contain increasingly more personal information, say five levels or tiers, and access would be granted to certain levels according to the degree of trust or strength of the relationship. Of course, this profile would likely be embodied in a software avatar. Trend 10. Transparency. Consumers and businesses today all live, in

EFFECT INhGLASSHOUSESv$ATAABOUT each individual is everywhere, and secrets are very difficult to keep, whether from databases, tracking deVICES OR SURVEILLANCE!T THE SAME time, the explosion of social networkING7EBSITESSUCHAS-Y3PACEAND Facebook has contributed to a greater sharing of personal information. Just as people are becoming more transparent, exposing more of themselves, they’re putting pressure on organizations to do the same. For businesses, this increasingly means that they must assume that they are being watched and should act accordingly. We suggest to our clients that they take the “YouTube test” when considering courses of action — that is, if someone videorecorded their activity, and it showed up on YouTube the next day with potentially millions of viewers, would they still pursue the action? Business implications: This trend suggests that the barriers between “us and them” will recede. It also portends a greater partnership role WITH STAKEHOLDERS!SSUME THAT IF they are going to find out anyway, they should be included from the beginning. Using Trends This list of consumer trends is intended to provide a primer on the global trends in play today and how they might develop and evolve into the next decade. You can apply this knowledge to uncover new opportunities; detect threats; craft strategy; EVA SERRABASSA / ISTOCKPHOTO.COM

Data about each individual is everywhere, and secrets are very difficult to keep, whether from databases, tracking devices, or surveillance. Thanks to the Internet, the world is becoming a “glass house,” where every secret is visible to everyone else.

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Myriad products and services labeled fair trade, free range, bloodless, guilt-free, organic, natural, cruelty-free, socially responsible, carbon-neutral, green, and grass-fed, among others target the rising trend in ethical consumption.

guide policy; explore new markets, products, and services; and understand emerging customer needs. This is only a starting point for analysis; the next question is the implications for the nation, organization, or individual. Having access to this kind of content is important, for understanding established trends such as these provides us with a foundation for thinking in a productive way about the future. The next step is to apply the knowledge. Q About the Author Andy Hines is the director of Custom Projects at Social Technologies, 1776 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Suite 815, Washington, D.C. 20036. Web site www.socialtechnologies.com. He co-founded and is currently chair of the Association of Professional Futurists. Thinking About the Future, his third book (co-edited with Peter Bishop), was published by Social Technologies in 2006. Part one of this article, detailing trends in demogaphics and wealth, appeared in the July-August 2008 edition of THE FUTURIST. For more information, visit www.socialtechnologies.com.

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