Global Trend Of 2020

Global Trend of 2020

Agenda  New

Global Player (Introduction)  The Globalization  Rising Powers (Asia)  Rising Powers (Others)  New Challenges to Governance  Pervasive Insecurity  Policy Implications

Methodology 

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Workshops  CIA Headquarters (September 2003)  Africa NIC 2020 Workshop—Johannesburg, South Africa (March 2004)  Russia and Eurasia NIC 2020 Workshop—Budapest, Hungary (April 2004)  Asia NIC 2020 Workshop—Singapore (May 2004)  Consultation on Preliminary NIC 2020 Draft with UK experts and the International Institute of Strategic Studies—London, England (October 2004) Created an interactive, web site to serve as a repository for discussion papers and workshop summaries.  link to massive quantities of basic data for reference and analysis.  Interactive tools to created “hands-on” computer simulations to develop their own scenarios

New Global Player I 

21 st century may be seen as the time when Asia, led by China and India, economic growth, expanding military capabilities, and large populations  

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 

Germany in the 19 th century United States in the 20 th century

2020 China’s gross national product (GNP) will exceed that of individual Western economic powers except for the United States. ( 將會取代日本成為第 二大經濟體 ) India’s GNP will have overtaken or be on the threshold of overtaking European economies Brazil, Indonesia, ..

New Global Player II  European

and Japan face a similar aging

crisis 

The crisis over North Korea is likely to come to a head sometime over the next 15 years

 Russia

has the potential to enhance its international role with others due to its position as a major oil and gas exporter 

low birth rates, poor medical care, and a potentially explosive AIDS situation

New Global Player III 

World economy is likely to continue growing impressively: by 2020, it is projected to be about 80 percent larger than it was in 2000, and average per capita income will be roughly 50 percent higher 



The expected next revolution in high technology involving the convergence of nano-, bio-, information and materials technology

Total energy consumed probably will rise by about 50 percent in the next two decades 

Overall energy supplies will be sufficient to meet global demands

New Global Player IV  Pervasive 

 

Insecurity

The likelihood of great power conflict escalating into total war in the next 15 years is lower than before. Additional countries to develop nuclear weapons Terrorists might acquire biological agents or nuclear device, either of which could cause mass casualties.

The Globalization I Globalization is likely to take on much more of a ‘non-Western’ face ”  Asia will continue to reshape globalization   



Establishing an Asian monetary fund Accumulate large currency reserves ( 外匯存底 ) Interest-rate decisions taken by Asian central bankers will impact other global financial markets China becoming educational magnets

The Globalization II India and China probably will be among the economic heavyweights.  China’s gross national product (GNP) may be the second largest in the world by 2020.  India’s output could match that of a large European country

The Globalization III The greatest benefits of globalization will accrue to countries and groups that can access and adopt new technologies  Medical breakthroughs 

cure some diseases and stretch lifespans

 improve

food and potable water production  expansion of wireless communications  language translation technologies

The Globalization IV Biotechnology: Panacea and Weapon  Begin to revolutionize life itself by 2015.   

Increased quantity and quality of human life. Eugenics and cloning. ( 優生學和複製 ) Medical breakthroughs

The Globalization V  Issues  



  



in Biotechnology

Eugenics Cloning of humans, including concerns over morality, errors, induced medical problems The safety and ethics of genetically modified organisms The use of stem cells Privacy of genetic profiles The danger of environmental havoc from genetically modified organisms An increased risk of engineered biological weapons

The Globalization VI  討論了許多主題

, 但沒有一個有系統或有邏

輯的整理  或許只是想表達 , 全球化帶來了經濟及科技的 快速進步 , 也改善了人類的生活 , 但同時也造 成了不少負面的作用  Regionalisation or Globalisation?

Rising Powers  Rising 

Powers: The Changing

Geopolitical Landscape 

The likely emergence of China and India as new major global players 中國、印度將成全球要角 





almost all population growth will occur in developing nations that until recently have occupied places on the fringes of the global economy 未來幾乎所有的人口成長將在發展中的國家 The “arriviste” powers 中國，印度，或許還有巴西和印尼，可能建起新的國際強權 ，打破二戰後的結構 Only an abrupt reversal of the process of globalization or a major upheaval in these countries would prevent their rise. 除非全球化的發展改變或者國家內部發生動亂將遏止他們的 崛起 .

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sustained high economic growth+ expanding military capabilities+active promotion of high technologies+ large populations 持續的經濟成長＋軍備能力擴張＋積 極提升高科技技術＋龐大的人口數量是這兩個國家在經 濟和政治權力崛起的因素

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其他可能的地緣政治體：巴西、南非、印尼、俄羅斯。 但也不能輕忽也許歐盟將更趨團結，日本將更活躍的可 能性。 國與國彼此間的能源的需求亦將促進全球化，歐洲和俄 羅斯間的依賴互存將增強



 Rising 

Asia

China  



中國希望建立其大國地位將反映在藉由和鄰近國家的經 濟槓桿作用＆持續強化軍備這兩者上 東亞各國面對此一趨勢也將密切與北京保持經貿往來和 政治聯繫，可能也會顧及到中國的喜好，特別處理敏感 的台灣議題 而日本、台灣、和南亞各國可能會彼此互助或求助於美 國來抗衡中國的影響力量

 Economic

setbacks and crises of confidence could slow China’s emergence as a full-scale great power…. 然而經濟衰退＆信心危機可能減 緩中國的崛起 ..

 Economic

setbacks and crises of confidence could slow China’s emergence as a full-scale great power…. 然而經濟衰退＆信心危機可能減 緩中國的崛起 ..  



就業機會不足導致動亂 2020 年代將開始邁入老年化社會，中國將面臨無法 處理一連串的社會政策問題 如果中國經濟下滑，將引發區域安全削弱、政局不穩 、毒品犯罪率攀升等問題

India I  India

will be an economic magnet for the region 

Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and other countries may move closer to India to help build a potential geopolitical counterweight to China ( 制 衡中國 )

 Pressure

on resources—land, water, and energy supplies.

India II  Working-age

population will continue to increase well into the 2020s  Democratic institutions vs. authoritarian political system ( 民主體制 和 極權體制 )  

bureaucracy still remains ( 官僚體制 ) caste-based political parties ( 種姓制度 )

 Larger

proportion of population in poverty  According to recent UN data, India has overtaken South Africa as the country with the largest number of HIV-infected people

Asia Conference (05/May/2004)

Agenda  Summary  Identity

and Ideology ( 身份 及意識型態 )  ICT Revolution  Governability  Demographics  The Future of Force

Demographics 

Realize that social welfare is an important part of growth   

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Migration and Border Controls 



median age of citizens, medical care Pensions ( 退休金 )  retirement is not an normal concept in Asia Asian countries have traditionally been less tolerant of immigration than the West.

Gender Demographics 

women will have gained more rights and freedoms

Governance  Democracy  



A 

development of liberal, democratic states in much of Asia is by no means certain the development of democratic processes could be offset by the perceived need for strong government. The two longest standing democracies in Asia— the Philippines and India are example.

New China Model Fifth Generation have been trained in Westernstyle universities and have a good understanding of international standards of governance

Future of Force 

Nuclear Development 

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China’s “Peaceful Rise”  

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The most likely outcome is North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons by 2020, which could raise questions for Japan and South Korea China’s military spending will triple or quadruple  surpassing Japan but less than U.S. spending. Dispute with Taiwan, unlikely to change significantly over the next few decades.

Japan  

China is interested in seeing Japan develop a greater independence from the United States. Little chance that Japan would abandon its strong relationship with the U.S

Scenario One Fragmentation and Intrastate Conflict  Southeast Asia  

Multireligious ( 多宗教的 ) Multiethnic ( 多人種的 )

 Including

Thailand.

Indonesia, the Philippines, and

Scenario Two Regional Cooperation  Association of Southeast Asian Nations 東南亞國 家聯盟  





Similar to NATO? ( 北大西洋公約組織 ) Centralized authorities of nation states might devolve to a greater extent to localities Diminish U.S. influence over economic and security Main Key: Growth of global economy and China

 http://www.aseansec.org/

Scenario Three Competitive States  Resulting in accelerated levels of economic

Scenario Four China – Japan Conflict  Diaoyu Island ( 釣魚島 ) 



Both governments agree that the islands are part of Taiwan province. Discovery of greater oil reserves

 Nationalism

and energy needs are the main

key 

Consider best interests lay in avoiding military conflict, it would be improbable.

Backup Slide

Agenda  Summary  Identity

and Ideology ( 身份 及意識型態 )  ICT Revolution  Governability  Demographics  The Future of Force

Asian Choices & Challenges Revolution of Information Communication Technologies (ICT)  Raises productivity growth and falling prices  Faces complex challenges in the choice technologies it should adopt    

monopolised the telecommunication ( 壟斷 ) invested heavily in the old wired networks A poor district could jump to the latest technology New ICT facilities can be installed by the private sector, more efficient rather than by state organizations.

Broadband  Impact 



of Broadband

Opening up new opportunities for interactive applications, online games, virtual reality, digital broadcasting E-Government, including education, health and other government services 

Singapore provides a good example

 Problem 

of Boardband

owners of Intellectual Property Rights 

music industry alone claims a loss of 7% of its income in 2002, due to illegal downloading of music.

Agenda  Summary  Identity

and Ideology ( 身份 及意識型態 )  ICT Revolution  Governability  Demographics  The Future of Force