Future Proof
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Future Proof: Top Ten Trends 20102020
By Kurt Cagle
Kurt Cagle
Author of eighteen books on web technologies and systems analysis
Industry Analyst
Managing Editor, xmlToday.org
[email protected]
@kurt_cagle on Twitter
Top Ten Trends of the 2010s
Generations
The New Media
Petroleum OS Ends
Open Data/Open Govt
The Great DisIntegration
The Emergent Education Era
Smart Grid OS
Bioinformatics
Virtualization
HyperPresence
Generations
Each generation establishes an indelible footprint on a given era, A generation is both influenced by the preceding generations and influences the following generations The exact boundaries of generations are seldom clear cut – think of a generation as aggregate behaviors.
Baby Boomers (19441962)
Leading edge now retiring (65 in 2009)
Fixed income outflows – shrinking economy
Will place heavy demand on social services
Most heavily impacted by the Great Recession
Relocation into cities and nearsuburbs – smaller houses or condos, city services Will form bulk of the volunteer economy moving forward.
GenXers (19631981)
Becoming primary policy leaders, entrepreneurs and authorities Architects of the Web, technical/engineering oriented, focused on standards and code Independent – libertarians or civil libertarians, live agile methodologies Distrustful of large institutions Will have the biggest stamp on the technical foundation of the next decade
Millennials (19822000)
First social media generation
Nearly as large as Boomers (Echo Boomers)
Very entrepreneurial
More likely to be involved in communication/media
Concerned about transparency of gov't & business.
Mashup generation
Environmentally sensitive
Virtuals (20012019)
Smaller generation than GenXers The Google Generation – information is pervasive and immediately accessible
Hyperconnected – always communicating
First postcorporate generation
Systemic thinkers
NeoTribalists
The Petroleum Operating System
The Energy production and distribution system can be thought of as an economy's Operating System The Petroleum OS is now 150 years old, and dictates transportation, power generation, urban infrastructure development, financial systems, food production, political organization, education, marketing and media and nearly everything else. The Petroleum Operating System is crashing ...
Peak Oil – The End of Cheap Oil
Global Oil Peak 2007?
Demand Still Growing
Max Prod: 85 Mbls/d
Cost to produce energy exceeds energy value
Trough Oil: Everything from here gets harder
Energy Shocks
Energy Shock Cycle
Economy Improves, Increases Demand
Demand Increases Price, Fixed or Falling Supply
Price Reaches a Peak, Dragging on the Economy
Economy Crashes, Price Plummets
Cycles increasing in frequency, severity
Gluts Become Smaller, Shortages Longer
Average Price Through Cycle Increasing
Petroleum OS and Credit
Credit derives from energy/resource reserves, which cannot consistently meet demand Without guaranteed reserves, credit dries up. Without credit, businesses are forced into cash accrual model, with higher exposed risk. Most megacorporations are built with leveraged credit; as credit recedes, they disaggregate. 20102020 is the Great Disintegration.
The Smart Grid Era
Decade will mark transition to the Smart Grid era. Smart Grid – merging electrical production grid with societal information networks Smart Grid supports localized, sustainable energy production, with intelligent creation, transmission & storage of power. Consumers become prosumers, with those contributing to the grid gaining most benefit.
Smart Grid as Open OS? Petroleum OS
Smart Grid OS
Proprietary
Open Access
Centralized
Decentralized
Forces Segmentation
Enables Open Standards
Vendor Lockin
Competitive Cooperation
High Barrier to Entry
Low Barrier to Entry
Forced Upgrades
Allows for Versioning
Benefits Producers
Benefits Users, Prosumers
Smart Grid Economy
Smart Grid economy is emergent (bottom up)
Communities seek energy independence Those that don't face unreliable power (worse than no power, in many respects)
Smart Grid standardization insures that as a community comes online, it can connect to grid Smart Grids allow community participation, and community member renumeration
Smart Grid and the Internet
The Smart Grid is the next stage of the Internet, and will build out in much the same way the web did As such SG becomes an overlay of networks: Energy, Messaging, Data Abstraction, Application, Social Media, Financial Services, Resource Distribution, Governmental Services
Electrical standardization moves transportation onto the Smart Grid as well.
Adapting Transportation Grid
Electric cars (though car use declines, generally) High speed rail replaces air travel, save for light air craft
Light rail, ebusses, trolleys reemerge
Trucking remains but becomes more local
Shipping favors rail, winddriven ships
Most vehicles are hybrids – oil provides extra power, but is not prime motive power.
AltEnergy
Biofuels
Algae, Yeast, Hemp, Sawgrass, Biowastes
Requires Genetically Engineered Agents & Enzymes
Solar photoVoltaics 3rd Gen pVs, Flexible pV Membranes, Photosynthesis, Supercapacitors, Beamed Microwave Energy
Thermal Gradient Systems
Kinetic Systems High Altitude Kites, Water Snakes
SGOS & Society
SGOS fosters citystate hubs; power shifts away from national back towards municipal level. Physical manufacturing relocalizes, virtual manufacturing (software and services) globalizes Management & marketing lose influence, technical/creative gain influence. Corporations are either physical, local and persistant or virtual, distributed and transient (or both). In all cases, they're small.
Virtualization
The rendering of physical entities as software
Cloud the virtualization of hardware
Software as a Service the virtualization of standalone applications as sets of web service streams Next big wave is virtualization of data, with the web as collections of read/write databases This concept is intrinsic to RESTful Services
Virtualization and SGOS
Virtualization moves up the stack Virtualization of government occurs as governmental functions become exposed as services in the noosphere Virtualization of the media is already underway. Virtualization of education is happening as the POS educational system collapses. Each replaces topdown hierarchical systems with bottomup distributed systems.
Search, Services & Semantics
We are switching from process oriented applications to resource oriented (RESTful) ones Introduces a search/query oriented view of the web. Search services will retrieve collections of links to resources, packaged in various forms. Update services will activate messaging actions based upon publishing of content. Computational semantics will drive both search and publishing.
Social Media
Social Media makes all human experiences virtually participatory, before, during and after the fact. Social Media is absorbing gaming, conferencing, education, training and entertainment. Social Media platforms will continue to emerge, eclipsing older platforms and services. Social Media will also be foundation of Augmented Reality
NeoJournalism PaleoJournalism
NeoJournalism
News is scarce
News is ubiquitous
High barrier to entry
Low barrier to entry
Professional journalists
Editor provides gateway function
Domain expert as journalist Community provides filtering function
Branding is key
Search/Word of Mouth
Advertising driven
Ancillary services driven
Open Data / Open Gov't
Next Stage of Web – Web as Database Orgs will expose both public data services and data editors via REST, XML and JSON
Gov't Big Data Standards – NIEM Framework
Semantic Web Matures: RDF/OWL & Linked Data
Businesses improve transparency via XBRL
Everything becomes (somewhat) intelligent
Education's Failing Grade
Existing 19th/20th century education infrastructure disintegrates Funding collapses due to credit shock, fuel prices, reduced tax base and demographics
Educational systems fail to deliver competent graduates for information economy
Centralized curricula removes flexibility, targets generation of mediocrity.
Kids becoming idiot savants – knowledge at their fingertips, but with few tools to analyse it.
Rethinking Education
Online education webs may provide communities of learning
Distance learning decouples teaching from location
Education becomes life-long activity
Social education becomes biggest issue
2010s will see an explosion of alt-education forms Teachers, like journalists, will be the next professionals to face amateurization, to be replaced by guides, mentors and quisitors.
Hyper Awareness & Augmented Reality
Geoinformatics becomes pervasive
Wearable computing comes of age
Location/topicality channels create a where web
Financial transactions become transparent
Motion aware overlays enable inplace virtual worlds
People rent their lives vicariously. Percentage of people who live and/or work in virtual worlds exceeds 30% by 2020
BioInformatics
Electronic Health Records become Open Data
Standardization leads to bottom up revolution
Disintegration of private insurance monopolies in US XML Based EHRs create distributed web, another part of the Smart Grid Epidemiology, emergency response merge with Smart Grid (via US National Information Exchange Model, or NIEM)?
Summary
Institutional society will disintegrate over the next twenty years. What replaces it will be distributed, emergent, virtual, communal, highly participatory and metaphorical. Declining resources and overstressed ecosystems will increase conflict globally, but will also hasten the transition to sustainable models These changes will come from the bottom up.
By Kurt Cagle
Kurt Cagle
Author of eighteen books on web technologies and systems analysis
Industry Analyst
Managing Editor, xmlToday.org
[email protected]
@kurt_cagle on Twitter
Top Ten Trends of the 2010s
Generations
The New Media
Petroleum OS Ends
Open Data/Open Govt
The Great DisIntegration
The Emergent Education Era
Smart Grid OS
Bioinformatics
Virtualization
HyperPresence
Generations
Each generation establishes an indelible footprint on a given era, A generation is both influenced by the preceding generations and influences the following generations The exact boundaries of generations are seldom clear cut – think of a generation as aggregate behaviors.
Baby Boomers (19441962)
Leading edge now retiring (65 in 2009)
Fixed income outflows – shrinking economy
Will place heavy demand on social services
Most heavily impacted by the Great Recession
Relocation into cities and nearsuburbs – smaller houses or condos, city services Will form bulk of the volunteer economy moving forward.
GenXers (19631981)
Becoming primary policy leaders, entrepreneurs and authorities Architects of the Web, technical/engineering oriented, focused on standards and code Independent – libertarians or civil libertarians, live agile methodologies Distrustful of large institutions Will have the biggest stamp on the technical foundation of the next decade
Millennials (19822000)
First social media generation
Nearly as large as Boomers (Echo Boomers)
Very entrepreneurial
More likely to be involved in communication/media
Concerned about transparency of gov't & business.
Mashup generation
Environmentally sensitive
Virtuals (20012019)
Smaller generation than GenXers The Google Generation – information is pervasive and immediately accessible
Hyperconnected – always communicating
First postcorporate generation
Systemic thinkers
NeoTribalists
The Petroleum Operating System
The Energy production and distribution system can be thought of as an economy's Operating System The Petroleum OS is now 150 years old, and dictates transportation, power generation, urban infrastructure development, financial systems, food production, political organization, education, marketing and media and nearly everything else. The Petroleum Operating System is crashing ...
Peak Oil – The End of Cheap Oil
Global Oil Peak 2007?
Demand Still Growing
Max Prod: 85 Mbls/d
Cost to produce energy exceeds energy value
Trough Oil: Everything from here gets harder
Energy Shocks
Energy Shock Cycle
Economy Improves, Increases Demand
Demand Increases Price, Fixed or Falling Supply
Price Reaches a Peak, Dragging on the Economy
Economy Crashes, Price Plummets
Cycles increasing in frequency, severity
Gluts Become Smaller, Shortages Longer
Average Price Through Cycle Increasing
Petroleum OS and Credit
Credit derives from energy/resource reserves, which cannot consistently meet demand Without guaranteed reserves, credit dries up. Without credit, businesses are forced into cash accrual model, with higher exposed risk. Most megacorporations are built with leveraged credit; as credit recedes, they disaggregate. 20102020 is the Great Disintegration.
The Smart Grid Era
Decade will mark transition to the Smart Grid era. Smart Grid – merging electrical production grid with societal information networks Smart Grid supports localized, sustainable energy production, with intelligent creation, transmission & storage of power. Consumers become prosumers, with those contributing to the grid gaining most benefit.
Smart Grid as Open OS? Petroleum OS
Smart Grid OS
Proprietary
Open Access
Centralized
Decentralized
Forces Segmentation
Enables Open Standards
Vendor Lockin
Competitive Cooperation
High Barrier to Entry
Low Barrier to Entry
Forced Upgrades
Allows for Versioning
Benefits Producers
Benefits Users, Prosumers
Smart Grid Economy
Smart Grid economy is emergent (bottom up)
Communities seek energy independence Those that don't face unreliable power (worse than no power, in many respects)
Smart Grid standardization insures that as a community comes online, it can connect to grid Smart Grids allow community participation, and community member renumeration
Smart Grid and the Internet
The Smart Grid is the next stage of the Internet, and will build out in much the same way the web did As such SG becomes an overlay of networks: Energy, Messaging, Data Abstraction, Application, Social Media, Financial Services, Resource Distribution, Governmental Services
Electrical standardization moves transportation onto the Smart Grid as well.
Adapting Transportation Grid
Electric cars (though car use declines, generally) High speed rail replaces air travel, save for light air craft
Light rail, ebusses, trolleys reemerge
Trucking remains but becomes more local
Shipping favors rail, winddriven ships
Most vehicles are hybrids – oil provides extra power, but is not prime motive power.
AltEnergy
Biofuels
Algae, Yeast, Hemp, Sawgrass, Biowastes
Requires Genetically Engineered Agents & Enzymes
Solar photoVoltaics 3rd Gen pVs, Flexible pV Membranes, Photosynthesis, Supercapacitors, Beamed Microwave Energy
Thermal Gradient Systems
Kinetic Systems High Altitude Kites, Water Snakes
SGOS & Society
SGOS fosters citystate hubs; power shifts away from national back towards municipal level. Physical manufacturing relocalizes, virtual manufacturing (software and services) globalizes Management & marketing lose influence, technical/creative gain influence. Corporations are either physical, local and persistant or virtual, distributed and transient (or both). In all cases, they're small.
Virtualization
The rendering of physical entities as software
Cloud the virtualization of hardware
Software as a Service the virtualization of standalone applications as sets of web service streams Next big wave is virtualization of data, with the web as collections of read/write databases This concept is intrinsic to RESTful Services
Virtualization and SGOS
Virtualization moves up the stack Virtualization of government occurs as governmental functions become exposed as services in the noosphere Virtualization of the media is already underway. Virtualization of education is happening as the POS educational system collapses. Each replaces topdown hierarchical systems with bottomup distributed systems.
Search, Services & Semantics
We are switching from process oriented applications to resource oriented (RESTful) ones Introduces a search/query oriented view of the web. Search services will retrieve collections of links to resources, packaged in various forms. Update services will activate messaging actions based upon publishing of content. Computational semantics will drive both search and publishing.
Social Media
Social Media makes all human experiences virtually participatory, before, during and after the fact. Social Media is absorbing gaming, conferencing, education, training and entertainment. Social Media platforms will continue to emerge, eclipsing older platforms and services. Social Media will also be foundation of Augmented Reality
NeoJournalism PaleoJournalism
NeoJournalism
News is scarce
News is ubiquitous
High barrier to entry
Low barrier to entry
Professional journalists
Editor provides gateway function
Domain expert as journalist Community provides filtering function
Branding is key
Search/Word of Mouth
Advertising driven
Ancillary services driven
Open Data / Open Gov't
Next Stage of Web – Web as Database Orgs will expose both public data services and data editors via REST, XML and JSON
Gov't Big Data Standards – NIEM Framework
Semantic Web Matures: RDF/OWL & Linked Data
Businesses improve transparency via XBRL
Everything becomes (somewhat) intelligent
Education's Failing Grade
Existing 19th/20th century education infrastructure disintegrates Funding collapses due to credit shock, fuel prices, reduced tax base and demographics
Educational systems fail to deliver competent graduates for information economy
Centralized curricula removes flexibility, targets generation of mediocrity.
Kids becoming idiot savants – knowledge at their fingertips, but with few tools to analyse it.
Rethinking Education
Online education webs may provide communities of learning
Distance learning decouples teaching from location
Education becomes life-long activity
Social education becomes biggest issue
2010s will see an explosion of alt-education forms Teachers, like journalists, will be the next professionals to face amateurization, to be replaced by guides, mentors and quisitors.
Hyper Awareness & Augmented Reality
Geoinformatics becomes pervasive
Wearable computing comes of age
Location/topicality channels create a where web
Financial transactions become transparent
Motion aware overlays enable inplace virtual worlds
People rent their lives vicariously. Percentage of people who live and/or work in virtual worlds exceeds 30% by 2020
BioInformatics
Electronic Health Records become Open Data
Standardization leads to bottom up revolution
Disintegration of private insurance monopolies in US XML Based EHRs create distributed web, another part of the Smart Grid Epidemiology, emergency response merge with Smart Grid (via US National Information Exchange Model, or NIEM)?
Summary
Institutional society will disintegrate over the next twenty years. What replaces it will be distributed, emergent, virtual, communal, highly participatory and metaphorical. Declining resources and overstressed ecosystems will increase conflict globally, but will also hasten the transition to sustainable models These changes will come from the bottom up.
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