Food Production For Malaysia During A Collapsing World Economy (www.mohdpeterdavis.com)

Conference on Bio Industry: the Future of Malaysia

25 & 26 March 2002 Kuala Lumpur

FOOD PRODUCTION FOR MALAYSIA DURING A COLLAPSING WORLD ECONOMY Mohd Peter Davis & Makhdzir Mardan Universiti Putra Malaysia Serdang 43400, Selangor, D.E. Email: [email protected] [email protected] The Ancient Egyptians invented agriculture some 10,000 years ago as a systematic way of producing food. Agriculture was far superior to hunting and gathering, the stone-age way of obtaining food. Since that time and under different civilisations the only legitimate purpose of agriculture is to feed a country’s population. Agriculture is not about making money or dominating other countries through control of the food supply as advocated by Henry Kissinger in 1974 and adopted by the US Government in 1975. The historical and future role of agriculture is to feed people. This simple truth forms the essence of the proposed Emergency Agricultural Policy for Malaysia. Its aim is to provide every man women and child with the basic minimum food for survival under the worse possible scenario, namely the collapse of the world economy. Although not realized by Malaysians or indeed the vast majority of the world’s population this catastrophic event has been maturing over the last 30 years. The first author has been concerned with this theoretical possibility since being alerted by fellow academics that America’s abandonment of the Bretton Woods Gold Standard in 1971 spelt disaster for the world economy. American economist and US Presidential Pre-Candidate for 2004, Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr has been outstandingly accurate in forecasting the American and world economy for the last 35 years. His weekly journal, Executive Intelligence Review (see website www.larouchepub.com) provides the definitive historical, scientific, economic and political analysis of this rapidly maturing collapse of the world economy, which now threatens a new dark age for civilisation similar to 14th Century Europe. The economy of Argentina is now collapsing before our very eyes. The country is officially bankrupt with debts of US$141 billion and 22% unemployment. Half the population of Argentina, once amongst the wealthiest countries in the world, is now living below the poverty line. Patients are reported dying every day for lack of imported medical supplies (figure 1). This is not just a tragedy for Argentina but part of the collapse of the whole world economy. The Japanese economy, now facing impossible debts, is dangerously close to collapsing. Symptoms of Japan’s threatening economic collapse now flood the Internet. “Himalayas of debt

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crashing down on the economy” says Time Magazine, “Japan’s death Spiral?” poses Forbes Business Magazine (see figures 1 and 2.) Economic collapse These articles appearing in mainstream publications are a dramatic wake up call for Malaysians. Argentina provides a glimpse of what to expect in the early stages of collapse of a national economy. In the last few months, savings in banks have become all but frozen the cost of food and goods in Argentina has trebled and the Government is appealing for IMF funds to feed the poor. Argentina is in hopeless debt. But according to Forbes Business Magazine (5th and 18th February 2002) so too is Japan with USD30 trillion debt (some 6 years of Gross National Product) and America’s USD19 trillion debt (2 years of GNP). Each country’s debt is now part of the same economic bubble. Debt has been globalised. What happens to the economy of one country now affects every other country. The whole world must now pay for the recklessness of successive American government over the last 30 years. America has abandoned the Bretton Woods Gold Standard, the economic basis for the post war reconstruction of the world, and has frantically printed paper money to hide their country’s bankruptcy. This has undermined the world’s physical economy (food production, energy supply, transport systems, science based development etc), which is required for human survival. Instead, the world economy has been transformed into a consumer economy of shoddy goods and lifetime debts. Speculation, not production, now dominates all spheres of the world economy. The world economy has become a giant gambling casino. The American led assault on the world’s productive forces have bankrupted not only America but also the rest of the world; the debts cannot be repaid and the bubble is about to burst. Nothing it seems can save the Japanese economy. It can collapse at any time. If Japan recalls its enormous wealth held in American banks the fear is real that the American economy and along with it the World economy will collapse into chaos. In a recent radio talk program with Lyndon LaRouche the interviewer pointed out that the Japanese hold 35% of the notes on the American banks.

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“Should the Yen finally hit some serious devaluation problems, or crash, the first thing they are going to be doing is coming after the (American) dollar”. (see www.larouchepub.com).

Malaysia’s historical reliance on food imports As the giant economies start disintegrating where does this leave tiny Malaysia? Malaysia is still dangerously dependent on the rest of the world for food. In reality Malaysia has never in its history enjoyed food security. The history books show that Malaya has always been a trading nation not an agricultural nation like its Indonesian and Thai neighbours. Malaysia’s poor soil and humid tropical climate is unsuitable for food agriculture, which accounts for the historically small population in a large land mass compared to its densely populated neighbours in the wet/dry tropics. According to Jim Baker in “Crossroads, A Popular History of Malaysia and Singapore” the lack of indigenous food production was a reason for the fall of Meleka Empire. “One reason that Malaya’s greatest empire-Melaka- failed was that it could not feed itself” (1) “Melaka produced little of its own, especially food. It was dependent on the sale of its services to buy rice from others, such as the Jarvanese. If trade was interrupted it spelt doom for them. This is exactly what happened” (2) Likewise, British Malaya before the Second World War produced only half its food. The semi-starvation during the Japanese occupation was a result of the American domination of the sea routes, which effectively stopped nearly all food imports. The Malayan population was only barely able to survive from traditional self-subsistence kampung agriculture but heavily urbanised areas like Singapore suffered much greater food deprivation. “Life in the urban areas became miserable with tremendous food shortages. Singapore, being the most urban of the British territories, had the

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hardest time. People were growing food in their backyards, along the roadsides, anything, anywhere in order to survive. Trade was Singapore’s lifeblood, and it was virtually dead…(3) With the disruption of the economy by the war and invasion there was little revenue available to run the government. The Japanese answer was to print money (called ‘banana money’ by Malayans because of the pictures on the bills) but had nothing to back it. As prices rose, the Japanese merely printed more money…one egg, costing 3 cents in 1941, cost 28 cents in 1943, $1.25 in 1944 and $35 in1945. Similarly 500g rice cost 6 cents in 1941 and $75 by 1945… People were forced to sell possessions to survive, and those dependant on fixed incomes became destitute. No one was spared the economic dislocation caused by the worthless currency circulated” (4) Today the Malaysian population has grown from the wartime 5 million to 22 million. Even more worrying is that 60% now live in urban areas with virtually no access to agriculture or kampung survival skills. Even the rural areas (except the East Coast states) have become old peoples homes with only token agricultural production. The rural youth have not adopted agriculture as a career. Only 1% of farmers are under 50 years of age. Perhaps only a few percent of Malaysians still possess the energy and practical skills for traditional rural survival. The considerable skills developed by post-Independence Malaysians, acquired from the country’s high commitment to education, have not been utilised to make the country self-reliant in food. What percentage of its food does Malaysia produce? In the year 2000 Malaysia produced food valued RM5.4 billion (Malaysian Agricultural Directory & Index 2001/2002) and imported food valued at RM11.3 billion (Kementerian Pertanian Malaysia). Malaysia would therefore appear to import about two thirds of its food. However, this is a bit misleading since some of the Malaysian produced food, such as seafood, fruits and vegetables is exported. The imported food such as milk and cereals also has a higher nutritive value than the Malaysian produced food. Another complication is that Malaysia is self

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sufficient in chicken, pork and eggs and indeed supplies Singapore with these foods. However, these very efficient food industries depend absolutely on imported animal feeds, particularly maize grain (corn), which is difficult to grow in Malaysia, lacking as it does the long, dry and hot season required to ripen cereal crops. In a world economic collapse Malaysia may not be able to afford to import animal feeds or, just as bad, the producing countries may hoard these valuable feeds for their own food security. The total collapse of the chicken and pig industries therefore seems very probable. These considerations confuse the food supply situation. We have attempted instead to estimate the food shortage problem by assuming the worse possible scenario, namely the cessation of all imports and exports. This is similar to the historical example of Malaya under Japanese occupation. The authors caution from the outset that the following analysis of food self-sufficiency is quite crude. The subject deserves a thorough study by agricultural economists. In the meantime we have crudely estimated Malaysia’s food self-sufficiency assuming the worse case scenario (table 1). The food items fall into two groups. Malaysia without imports or exports would be 100% self-sufficient in fish, tea coffee and cocoa, 90% in fruits, 70% self sufficient in rice and 45% in vegetables. This food group comprises the traditional and meagre Malayan kampung diet of a few generations ago. The second group of food in table 2 comprises the import dependent milk, cereals and sugar and the eggs and meat (both the imported meat from i.e. India and Australia and chicken and pig grown locally from imported animal feed). All of this second group are high nutrient foods, which would virtually disappear from the Malaysian diet in our worse case scenario. However, survival depends not on food preferences but on adequate supply of nutrients. The production of proteins for human consumption has always been Malaysia’s most difficult food problem. Intensive chicken and pig production requires maize grain (corn), which has almost no prospect of being grown in significant quantities in Malaysia (S.L. Tan, MARDI, personal communication). Malaysia also lacks the grazing land for cattle, sheep and goat production. Despite repeated attempts, ruminant production under rubber and oil palm plantations has made very little contribution to national

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protein consumption. The Malaysian per capita consumption of Livestock Products is quite high by world standards at 57kg per year (table 2) yet the production using entirely local resources is very low at about 2kg per year (table 3) giving self-sufficiency for meat and eggs of less than 4% (table 4). The data for these 4 tables comes from ‘Malaysian Agricultural Directory &Index 2001/02’ (6) and ‘Green Fingers’ (7) and from Kementerian Pertanian Malaysia (8) However the problem is not as bad as it appears. Malaysia has always been selfsufficient in fish, which is the traditional protein source. Fish currently contributes half of Malaysians’ current protein consumption of 57g protein per person per day, close to the human requirement of 1g protein per kg body weight per day. Without access to imported meat and imported animal feeds the average protein consumption from meat, eggs and fish would drop to 32g/day. The estimated protein self-sufficiency for Malaysia under our worse case scenario is therefore 56% (table 5). Overall food supply in Malaysia Under our worse case scenario, which assumes an almost complete cessation of trade similar to the Japanese occupation, Malaysia currently produces from its own local resources about half of its consumption of proteins, vegetables and carbohydrates (table 6). Palm oil can supply the entire requirement for dietary fat. Without food imports Malaysia, even if it shares the food equitably, would therefore be like an army on half rations. This analysis is rather chilling. Under Japanese occupation type conditions and without government control food prices would probably skyrocket and the growing number of unemployed Malaysians, particularly those in urban areas without access to food growing, would face semi-starvation. This situation already exists in once wealthy Argentina with a far more substantial agricultural base where 50% of school children are now living below the poverty line. Indeed the main meal of the day for Argentine children has to be provided free at the

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schools. However, Argentina is bankrupt and to feed its poor it has to appeal to the International Monetary Fund, (figure 1). OVERCOMING THE SHORTAGE OF CARBOHYDRATES Malaysia currently produces 70% of its rice consumption. Of the 2.1 million tonnes of paddy produced in Malaysia in 1997, 1.5 million tonnes (71%) was grown in 8 granary areas each provided with irrigation, infrastructure, extension services and credit by a separate Statutory Body (ref MAD&I p129). The Government’s current aim is to increase yields through improved irrigation and water use and to increase the areas under cultivation. Several thousand hectares adjacent to the granary areas have been identified (Arifin Tawang, MARDI, personal communication). Under emergency conditions it therefore seems likely that rice production can be rapidly increased by 30% to achieve current levels of rice consumption. Overall, large-scale modern rice production has superseded kampung paddy production and the idle paddy fields can be drained and put to other agricultural use by smallholder farmers. Growing an alternative to Malaysia’s huge imports of cereals, valued at RM2.8 billion in 2000, is a much more difficult problem. Cereals (used for bread, capati, cakes etc.) currently provide half of Malaysia’s consumption of carbohydrates. We repeat, there is little prospect of ever growing significant quantities of wheat or maize grain in Malaysia (S. l. Tan, MARDI, personal communication). Other sources of carbohydrate are required to replace imported cereals and also as alternative in the event of rice disease. The Irish potato famine and mass starvation and emigration the Irish to America in the 19th century is a grim reminder of the consequences of relying on a sole carbohydrate source. Cassava Malaysians have traditionally planted Tapioca (Cassava) as an emergency source of carbohydrate. It is fast and easy to grow on any idle land and is every suitable for urban agriculture. Cassava was an important survival crop during the Japanese occupation. It can as a cooked in many different ways and the leaves

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are a high protein vegetable. Hungry Malaysians will undoubtedly grow cassava however and wherever they can.

Sweet Potato Sweet potato is also a traditional emergency food for Malaysians being easy to grow on a wide range of soil types. It and can be processed as flour and its leaves are edible and also high in protein. The new MARDI high yield variety, rich in vitamin A, is particularly important. It has been developed by S.L.Tan and coresearchers at MARDI as a possible animal feed for chicken and pigs to replace imported cereals. Sweat potato can grow on marginal soils such as acid sulphate (11,000 hectares available land) and sandy soils (165,00 hectares available land) as well as in oil palm and rubber land, especially using the new hedgerow technique (5) About 10% of the available sandy soil is currently being farmed for tobacco by 25,000 smallholders. MARDI has developed a commercial package for the sandy (bris) soils of Kelantan and Terengganu. This package includes improving the soil with chicken dung and/or waste materials from the oil palm industry, such as POME and empty fruit bunches and providing tube well water, tractors and other agricultural machinery for 100 hectare lot modern farming. Large-scale sweet potato farming can therefore be rapidly implemented for emergency food. The main limitation is planting material. However, one hectare can generate planting material for 30 hectares and with several crops per year this limitation can soon be overcome. The yield on sandy soil is very high at 26-30 tonnes/hectare but after 2 crops the land must be rotated to minimise pests. Rotation with high protein crops such as ground nuts, green soyabean or mung beans would be very suitable. Assuming a yield of 26-30 tonnes/hectare and 3 crops every 2 years and cultivating the 165,000 hectares of available waste land in Kelantan and Terengganu, the expected quantity of sweet potato is 7 million tonnes per year (figure 7) This is more than four times the production of paddy in Malaysia’ granary areas, which require double the land area. The sweet potato crop also comes with a

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plentiful supply of high protein leaf and high protein ground nuts and other rotation crops. Clearly, sweet potato grown on the waste sandy soil in the East Coast is the future crop for Malaysia! Sweet Potato, potentially worth RM8 billion per year, can become a new industry for Malaysia to add to the RM2 billion rubber and RM17 billion per year oil palm industries. This one piece of MARDI research alone is enough to justify all the Government investment in agricultural research over the last 50 years. Figure 7

Sweet Potato Malaysia’s future commercial crop MARDI’s high yield variety 28 tonnes/ha Grows on waste sandy soil 165,000 ha available- Kelantan & Terengganu Fertilize with oil palm waste Developed by Dr Swee Lian Tan, MARDI Potential Production: 7 million tonnes/year Compare: 1.5m tonnes/yr Paddy from 400,000 ha in Malaysia’s granary areas

During the Japanese occupation, sweet potato was grown and eaten as a substitute for rice. In a collapsing world economy the products of modern sweet potato industry can be processed into emergency food for humans containing all of the essential nutrients, minerals and vitamins. The high energy, sweet potato can be blended with the high protein leaf of sweet potato and with other co-crops (groundnut, green soyabean, mungbean etc.) together with any missing minerals and vitamins plus around 20% palm oil to produce a complete emergency food for human consumption. This is a challenge for Malaysia’s dieticians, food

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scientists and food manufacturers. Produced in different flavours and consistencies, a food packet per day could provide say half the daily nutrient requirements for school children and the hungry (Abdul Salam Babji and Zalifah Mohd. Kasim, UKM, personal communication). As the world rebuilds a more sustainable economic system and emergency food is no longer required, the huge quantities of sweet potato feed can be used as the indigenous feed for Malaysia’s chicken and pig industries, replacing imported maize grain as the MARDI researchers originally intended. OVERCOMING THE PROTEIN SHORTAGE Each person on average requires about 60g protein per day. However, without imports Malaysia can only supply enough for about 30g per day, from sea fish and freshwater fish. There is no technical way of achieving self-sufficiency in the short term. It is anticipated that the sweet potato protein meal described above will first be needed for human consumption. Importance of the chicken and pig industries Malaysia cannot grow maize grain, which provides much of the carbohydrate and protein for the Malaysian chicken and pig industries. These industries are highly efficient; they supply humans with 28g protein per person per day. By importing less than RM1 billion worth of animal feed last year, the chicken and pig industries therefore provided Malaysians with nearly half their daily protein consumption. If these industries were allowed to collapse as a consequence of the maturing world economic crisis, the great social tragedy of semi-starvation would again engulf Malaysia. The chicken and pig industries are so important in supplying dietary protein for the population that they must be defended during an economic collapse. Securing the RM1 billion per year animal feed imports is therefore of critical national importance. Barter trade with our Asian neighbours, China, India, New Zealand and Australia is perhaps the most effective short-term solution for protecting Malaysia’s chicken and pig industries. To barter Malaysia produces half the palm oil in the world and has some petroleum and plenty of natural gas. It also has a well-diversified industrial and construction base.

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Barter trading can help secure animal feed in the short term but for long-term self-reliance commercial sweet potato production offers the chicken and pig industries the most sensible solution. Locally produced Cattle, sheep and goats Malaysia is only 17% self-sufficient in beef and 4% in mutton (9) and is dependant on mainly India and Australia. Smaller-holder kampung production offers no hope either in the short term or the long term. Under plantation sheep and cattle production systems have not lived up to expectations, despite serious attempts over 20 years. Feedlot production using indigenous feeds such as cut grass or oil palm waste products offers much better prospects. Palm Kernel Cake (PKC) is an abundant waste material from the Palm Oil Industry with a remarkable property. Research at UPM and MARDI and commercial feedlots in Malaysia over the last 20 years have proved that PKC with only minor mineral supplementation can be fed as a 100% diet to cattle and sheep, giving good growth rates However, the hopes of developing large scale commercial ruminant industries were dashed by the export of almost the entire Malaysian PKC production to Europe at high prices which effectively priced local producers out of the market. The loss of the only really useful ruminant feed resource in Malaysia “left a bad aftertaste by those involved in livestock development planning” (10). The frustration is also felt by researchers at UPM and MARDI since the Malaysian production of PKC has been shown to be more than sufficient to make Malaysia completely self-sufficient in beef and mutton (11). Highly efficient sheep and cattle feedlot systems have been developed by researchers only to be rejected by IRPA at the prototype testing stage. Reviving these science driven projects based on feed-lotting cattle sheep and goats with 100% PKC will lay the basis for self-sufficiency in beef and mutton. National Goat Production scheme A new intensive goat production system developed over the last 10 years by a UPM trained businessman, N. Yogendran, shows particularly good potential for adoption as a national goat production scheme. The system uses extremely economical lightweight farm buildings to hold 100 or more African crossbred

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goats under feedlot conditions using cut grass and concentrates. Lower but acceptable growth rates of 150g per day can be achieved routinely for goats fed 100% PKC with less than 1% mortalities. The meat and milk fetch good prices and are acceptable to all races. (N. Yogendran, personal communication). The production system can be duplicated all over the country on family kampung land. However, the scarcity of breeding stock is the main limitation and largescale enterprises may be preferable, based on scientific breeding techniques. The management of these goat farms perhaps by graduates and diplomats from UPM and Agricultural Colleges will allow for national co-ordination of improved breeding programs and advanced husbandry techniques by MARDI and UPM animal scientists. National Cattle and Sheep Schemes Similar schemes can be established for sheep and cattle and indeed goats in large scale feedlots established by the Plantation companies on their own land. Exporting Palm Kernel Cake for Australian Beef This may be necessary as a short-term solution to Malaysian meat shortages in a collapsing world economy. Even if the present exports of PKC to Europe are prohibited by Government decree, as many have advocated over the years, Malaysia does not have anywhere near the numbers of ruminant animals to eat the PKC. Most of the PKC would simply go to waste. It is only useful to fibre digesting ruminants. To build up sufficient animal numbers to support selfsufficient ruminant industries may take10 to 15 years. The export of surplus PKC to Australia is therefore a sensible strategy. Even at current prices PKC is attractive to Perth cattlemen and will cut their feed bill in half (N.Yogendran, personal communication). The world price of PKC is expected to decline much further as Europe removes farm subsidies and may become almost worthless as economies collapse. It may therefore be in the commercial interests of the Oil Palm Companies to purchase giant feedlots in Perth, Darwin and Townsville and ship the frozen meat back to Malaysia. Managed by Australians with Malaysian trainees, these enterprises will lay the basis for gradually transfering the cattle

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production to Malaysia. This strategy overall will guarantee Malaysian beef imports in the short term and establish beef self-sufficiency in the long-term. Fish Farming Fish is Malaysia’s traditional protein source and currently provides about half the human protein consumption (table 5). Harvesting of marine fish is probably at its maximum to safeguard breeding stocks. Freshwater fish farming in ponds in Malaysia’s climate is relatively easy but has not lived up to its promise. “At present, marine fish production is about ten times that of aquaculture but both have stagnated at their present levels since 1995” (12). However, fish production (rather than harvesting) is forecast to triple by 2005 to supply an additional 23% to present fish quantities (13). Given the competency of fish researchers in Malaysia, there seems to be no technical constraint to increasing production much further, provided this knowledge is disseminated to the public. Since fishing rather than farming is far more in line with the culture of Malays, a large increase in fresh water fish farming will undoubtedly occur at all levels from large commercial enterprises to kampung ponds and even fish tanks in terrace houses. Jungle Fowl The Jungle Fowl is a completely novel protein source suggested by UPM lecturer Amin Babji (personal communication). Apparently the Malaysian jungle fowl has colonised oil palm estates where it feeds on the fallen oil palm fruit and insects. It is not uncommon for kampung men with torchlights to trap or catapult jungle fowl, which are considered a delicacy, especially as a curry. Up to 80 have been captured in a night by 4 men. However, the jungle fowl learn quickly to avoid the hunters who must then further develop their skills. Clearly, the jungle fowl has potential as an emergency source of protein, especially if the culling rate is strictly controlled to preserve breeding stocks. The intensive breeding of jungle fowl fed on oil palm fruit and suitable protein, perhaps groundnut, offers the prospect of a new poultry industry, which is not dependant on imported feed.

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URBAN AGRICULTURE In times of economic crisis and widespread hunger a population has no other choice except to try to produce its own food. However this is far, far easier said than done, particularly for urbanised populations without the land, the breeding materials or the rural skills of their ancestors. Since 1978 the city of Vancouver, Canada has been developing Urban Agriculture

using

the

low

capital

techniques

of

Green

Technology

(www.cityfarmer.org/urbagnotes1.html)..In many ways this community movement re-establishes peoples historical links with food production. Over the last 50 years in particular, the world has become far more urbanised and city dwellers have become divorced from nature. Indeed urban children think that milk comes from supermarkets in paper cartons and need to be taken on school trips to farms to convince them otherwise.

Urban agriculture with its concepts of

organically grown food and natural recycling instead of chemical fertilisers and pesticides has gone beyond the fetish and hobby gardening stages and points the way towards sustainable agriculture as part of the lifestyle of every citizen. Compared to kampung farming, urban agriculture using green technology is a lot more productive and easier than kampung farming. People enjoy doing it and given the right circumstances such as an economic depression will readily adopt urban agriculture. The Internet is a fantastic source of shared knowledge on urban agriculture. Just search ‘worm faming’ for instance to enter a new environment friendly, sustainable world! The main constraint is lack of public knowledge and indeed ignorance amongst Malaysian agriculturalists. In the last 50 years of Malaysia’s development it has not been necessary to develop these skills. Urban agriculture in the short-term however has little prospect of producing even a tiny fraction of the food requirements of Malaysia’s urban population, which has swelled from 20% to 60% since Independence. Its importance is more psychological. A population that has been forced to grow its food in the tiny compounds of terrace houses will hopefully never again swallow the suicidal myth of the ‘New Economy’ that agriculture is a ‘Sunset Industry’.

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THE LESSON OF HISTORY Malaysia, it its headlong struggle to develop has forgotten to look back to its past, to the fall of the once mighty Melaka Empire and to the semi-starvation during Japanese occupation. The lack of food security has always been Malaysia’s Achilles heel. The people have forgotten that the basic function of agriculture is to feed your own population, never to rely on others. England learnt this bitter lesson when Hitler blockaded the country with U-Boat submarines, ruthlessly sinking the Merchant Navy, which had safely carried food from the British Colonies for the previous 300 years. Almost overnight England was faced with the Herculean task of feeding a largely non-agricultural nation. The able bodied men were either overseas in the war or working overtime in the munitions factories. The agricultural burden fell on the women and children. They rose to the occasion magnificently. They migrated to the rural areas to grow food, they dug up their gardens in the towns and cities and grew potatoes and reared pigs and chickens; they rented allotments from the council and practiced urban agriculture; they recycled everything. ‘Waste-notwant-not’ became a second national anthem. Hitler could not starve England into submission. Nobody went hungry. Indeed, children during the war were collectively better fed than at any previous time in England’s long history. In the space of 5 years the country’s agricultural base, decayed though centuries of colonial dependence, was transformed into a modern self-sufficient cheap food industry. Women driving tractors became its symbol. This was achieved by the political mobilisation of the entire population for the war effort. But above all it was the British scientists who also rose to the occasion. Quietly, diligently and professionally they united and formed an innovative yet sensible and practical National agricultural master plan and a fair ration system based, not on making money, but on human need during England’s ‘darkest hour’. Can Malaysia, faced suddenly and unexpectedly with a collapsing world economy, likewise feed its population and reorganise its agricultural base to achieve self-sufficiency in food?

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ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURAL POLICY FOR MALAYSIA The agricultural issues raised in this paper come from the rather late realisation by the authors that the world economy, which has resorted to printing paper money for the last 30 years, is now entering the final and dangerous stage of disintegration and collapse (www.larouchepub.com.). The Argentine economy has collapsed under a heap of debt. Japan, the world’s second largest economy, may well be next, threatening to collapse the American economy and with it the entire world economy. The worse case scenario for Malaysia is that commercial imports and exports based on currency will cease, similar to the Japanese occupation of Malaya. Under these conditions Malaysia can only produce half its food. The authors in the present paper have suggested possible strategies for minimising food shortages. We have no monopoly of wisdom on these issues and wish only to open a serious and mutually beneficial debate with all sectors of society. Our suggestions include the simultaneous adoption of the following new policies:Proposal 1: Defend Malaysia’s Chicken and Pig Industries by guaranteeing supply of RM1 billion imports of animal feeds. Action: Barter trading with ASEAN neighbours, China, India, Australia and New Zealand by exchanging palm oil, petroleum, natural gas etc. Proposal 2: Secure Malaysia’s supply of frozen beef by feeding cattle in Australia with Malaysian palm kernel cake. Action: Oil Palm Companies to consider venturing into Australian cattle feedlots and shipping back the beef to Malaysia. Propoal 3: Expand rice production from the current 70% self-sufficiency level to 100%. Action: Improve irrigation and mechanisation and expand the 8 existing granary areas.

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Proposal 4: Establish sweet potato as a second source of carbohydrate for humans and as a replacement of maize grain for the chicken and pig industries. Action: MARDI to serve as main consultants for large-scale sweet potato industry established on waste sandy soil in Kelantan and Terengganu. Proposal 5: Free school meal packets, providing half the daily nutrient requirements, for school children and the needy. Action: Dieticians, food scientists and food manufacturers to devise and produce palatable biscuits from sweet potato, ground nuts and other high protein sources and palm oil and vitamin fortification. Distributed directly and freely to schools and communities using Government channels and finance. Proposal 6: Development of new agricultural systems for urban agriculture, small-holder farming and commercial farming. Action: Government and Industry to provide ample fast-track research funding for novel food producing systems, especially new food sources such as jungle fowl. CONCLUDING REMARKS The six main proposals in this paper are designed to safeguard and enhance Malaysia’s food supply in response to recent disturbing world events heralding the possible collapse of the world economy. They should be seen as an update of the comprehensive proposals from Universiti Putra Malaysia contained in the August 1999 paper entitled “The changing frontiers and prospects in Malaysian agriculture” by Makhdzir Mardan, Mohd Yusof Hussein and Mad Nasir Shamsuddin (14). These authors have emphasised the need for better coordination between the various agricultural agencies (research and institutions of higher learning) and the private sectors (plantation sector). “The agricultural institutions in the country have to be amalgamated or reconsolidated and

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reengineered to meet the realities of the coming decades”. This task now becomes an urgent necessity. Over the last year or so UPM has debated the amalgamation of MARDI, UPM and the Agricultural Institute and surrounding research organisations under the concept of the ‘Serdang Agropolis’ as the agricultural think tank, R&D centre and agricultural showcase for the Nation. The Serdang Agropolis, (agricultural research under one roof) will provide the necessary critical mass of scientists and researchers to guide agriculture through a collapsing world economy and achieve complete food security for the first time in Malaysia’s history. References (1) Jim Baker (1999) in “Crossroads. A Popular History of Malaysia and Singapore” p16, Published by Time Books International, Singapore (2) Ref 1 p50 (3) Ref 1 p226 (4) Ref 1 p227

(5) Tan,S.L.(2000) Can root crops be a viable substitute for grains in feeds? Proc 22nd MSAP Ann Conf. 29 May-I June 2000, Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia). (6) Malaysian Agricultural Directory &Index 2001/02, Published by Agriquest Sdn Bhd, Petasling Jaya, Selangor (7) ‘Green Fingers’ by N. Sahadevan. Published by Sahadevan Publications Malaysia (1987). (8) Ringkasan Perdagangan Luaaar Negeri. Makanan dan hasil Pertanian Terpilih. 2000 Januari- Disember. Kementerian Pertanian Malaysia. (9) Ref 6, p190 (10) Birner R, (1992) Report to DVS and GTZ Ruminant Development (11) Davis M.P. and Zainur A.S.(1995). A proposal to establish fully integrated prime beef and prime lamb feedlot industries in Malaysia using 100% PKC. (12) Ref 6 p197 (13) Ref 6 p197 (14) Makhdzir Mardan, Mohd Yusof Hussein and Mad Nasir Shamsuddin (1999). The changing frontiers and prospects in Malaysian agriculture. AGEX ’99 Proceedings, 26-28 August, Kuala Lumpur.

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