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FIIIISS SSH N INDIA ON RSS O AR LA LL OL DO GD NG RIIN ER WE OW HO
Ghalla Bhansali Stock Brokers Pvt. Ltd. Mahesh Babaria
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Mittal Dharod
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22nd May, 2009
FDI growth up 85% in '08, highest globally India achieved a stunning 85.1% increase in foreign direct investment flows in 2008, the highest increase across all countries, even as global flows declined by 14.5%, says the findings of the Unctad study — Assessing the impact of the current financial and economic crisis on global FDI flows. The study, which updates the organisation’s January assessment, estimates that the FDI investments into India went up from $25.1 billion in 2007 to $ 46.5 billion in 2008 even as global flows declined from $1.9 trillion to $1.7 trillion during the period. It also cautions of a further decrease in FDI flows in 2009 as the full consequences of the crisis on transnational corporations’ (TNCs) investment expenditures continues to unfold Surprisingly FDI increased by a much slower 10% in China, pushing up the inflows from $83.5 billion in 2007 to $ 92.4 billion in 2008. What is, however, significant is that India’s FDI flows which was just a fraction of that of China just a few years back has now touched half the levels. More importantly that ratio of FDI to GDP in India would now exceed that of China, indicating its larger role in the Indian economy, as the size of the Chinese economy is around three times higher than that of India. India’s achievement in mobilising FDI is all the more significant because the inflows into the developed countries have declined by 25.3% in 2008. In contrast the overall FDI flows to developing countries increased by 7.2% in 2008. The report warns that though developing and transition economies were quite resilient in 2008, during the downturn in global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, they will be increasingly affected in 2009 as international investment continues to decline. However it also noted that some large emerging economies, such as Brazil, China and India, still remain favourable locations for FDI, particularly market‐seeking FDI. They maintained relatively high economic growth rates in 2008 compared with advanced economies. As prospects continue to deteriorate more markedly in developed countries, investors are likely to favour the relatively more profitable options available in the developing world.
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FIIIISS SSH N INDIA ON RSS O AR LA LL OL DO GD NG RIIN ER WE OW HO
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22nd May, 2009
FIIs Coming Back Indiaʹs exceptional growth story and its booming economy have made the country a favorite destination with foreign institutional investors (FIIs). It has continued to attract investment despite the Satyam non‐governance issue and the global economic contagion impact on Indian markets. The markets have given a resounding thumbs up to the strengthened mandate given to the Congress party and Dr Manmohan Singh. Equity markets were up 17 per cent on Monday and then kept their gains the following day, with record volumes driven by a billion dollars of FII buying. FIIs have been net sellers of equity since May 2008. In the seven months till November, they repatriated Rs.43,000 crores. There was a pause in December and it looked as if the FIIs were back in the market to buy. But a setback came with Satyam scam which prompted them to sell again. In the year 2008‐09 there was a net disinvestment of Rs.73,000 crores and FIIs’ share in market capitalization dropped to 12 per cent from 15 per cent at the end of March 2008. Since last March there has, however, been a change which signals that FIIs may once again come back to roost. There are reasons. The financial crisis in US and EU has eased. The stress test carried out by Federal Reserve of 19 major banks in the US surprisingly revealed that most banks had capital in excess of the regulatory requirements. That, along with encouraging balance sheets brought out by Goldman Sachs and Citibank, has revived public confidence in the banking system. Though the financial crisis has eased recession in US and EU continues and may even deepen further. It is unlikely; however, that recession will be prolonged, as in the 1990s in Japan, because of the instant action taken by the central banks and governments in US and EU. In any case, recession becomes a compulsion for investors to look for countries in which growth is positive. That is true only of a few countries like India and China. Surely, GDP growth in India has come down due to the exposure to world recession. But, when US GDP is shrinking at 3‐4 per cent, India’s GDP is rising at 5‐6 per cent. Besides, the P/E ratios for most of the companies in India are low which indicates vast scope for the market to climb up. Stock market is not the only investment target for the FIIs. They seem to be even more interested in debt mainly because of the immense opportunities for interest arbitrage. The interest on G‐secs in India is 6‐7 per cent when it is less than 1 per cent in the US. More than that, investment in corporate bonds with AAA rating is about 600 basis points higher than the interest on G‐secs. No wonder FII investment in corporate bonds is increasing faster than investment in equity. 2
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22nd May, 2009
Some Investment Highlights The Indian growth story has continued despite the Satyam non‐governance issue and the global economic slowdown. It has attracted global majors like CLSA, HSBC, Citigroup, Crown Capital, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, T Rowe Price International, Capital International and ABN Amro among others to enter the Indian financial market. Fidelity FID Funds Mauritius has bought a substantial stake in UTV Software in March 2009 for approx. US$ 2.34 million. Baring PE Fund has bought major stakes in Mphasis, a leading software company in India in March 2009 for approx US$ 25.55 million. Kotak Mahindraʹs investment banking business signed an exclusive alliance with GCA Savvian Group Corp., a medium‐sized Japanese bank run by bankers pooled from Goldman Sachs, KPMG, Credit Suisse and Merrill Lynch and Co. Inc., for international mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the so‐called India‐Japan corridor. Goldman Sachs picked up an 8.16 per cent stake in New Delhi Television Ltd (NDTV) and a minority stake in Sterling & Wilson Pvt. Ltd. Nomura Holdings, the largest Japanese securities firm, launched its equity sales, trading and investment banking operations in India though its subsidiary Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities. Nomura has integrated the franchises of failed US investment bank, Lehman Brothers units in India, which it had acquired in October 2008. Morgan Stanley is putting US$ 19.72 million into its Indian retail stock broking and portfolio management services firm Morgan Stanley India Financial Services (MSIFS). The firm recently launched private wealth management services, primarily for the high‐net worth individuals (HNI) and non‐resident Indians (NRI). Recent deals by Blackstone in Nuziveedu Seeds (US$ 50 million) and Morgan Stanley, through its Asia fund, for a minority stake in Biotor Industries (US$ 37.8 million) are instances of continued interest of FIIs in Indian markets. Private equity firm Blackstone has taken up a 26 per cent stake in MTAR Technologies for US$ 65 million. Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and BSMA have picked up a combined stake of over seven per cent in Gitanjali Gems at US$ 23.51 million. Fidelity Investments International has picked up close to seven per cent equity in Transport Corporation of India (TCI) for US$ 10.72 million.
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FIIIISS SSH N INDIA ON RSS O AR LA LL OL DO GD NG RIIN ER WE OW HO 22nd May, 2009
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Government Initiatives The Government of India has again reviewed the External Commercial Borrowing (ECB) policy and has increased the cumulative debt investment limit from US$ 6 billion to US$ 15 billion for FII investments in Corporate Debt. Allowed foreign individuals, corporates and other investors such as hedge funds to register directly as foreign institutional investors. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) will be one of the biggest gainers in the financial sector from the reduction in service tax announced in the Interim budget 2009‐10. As a result, FIIs will see their brokerage costs come down because of the lower service tax. According to PricewaterhouseCoopersʹ Prasad Paranjpe, ʺUnlike corporates registered here, FIIs do not have any output service tax liability in India against which service tax payments can be offset. So, the two‐ percentage‐point reduction will result in an equivalent cost saving.ʺ SEBI has FII investment limit in government securities being increased to US$ 5 billion from US$ 3.2 billion. Institutional investors—including FIIs and their sub‐accounts—have been allowed to undertake short‐selling, lending and borrowing of Indian securities from February 1, 2008. Significantly, it has allowed investment managers, advisors or institutional portfolio managers in the NRI category to be registered as FIIs. In October 2008, SEBI did away with the 70:30 ratio of FII investment in equity and debt, respectively. FIIs can now invest in equity and debt in any ration they seem fit. Reasons Why Investors Were Cautious on India Neighbours & Geo‐political risk: Of the bear arguments only Pakistan remains, as the electoral verdict has been far clearer than expected, and already Indian companies have regained access to global capital. Election Results: The second was the risk of a severely fractured electoral verdict leading to a compromise candidate for PM, and the Third Front led by the Left coming to power. The risk of weak governance threatened to derail the country’s long‐term outlook in the minds of investors. A weak government would not be able to tackle structural issues like the fiscal deficit or targeting of subsidies.
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22nd May, 2009
Indian Growth Story: the risks to the India growth story if global capital flows were to remain negative. The idea being, how will India fund its infrastructure deficit, given the limited local sources of long‐term capital? In the last 10 days alone Indian companies have raised almost $2 billion of equity. Strong inflows, both FII and FDI, will restart a positive feedback loop of rising investment driving strong earnings, leading back to investment. Investors now once again seem willing to place India along with China as one of the handful of countries which can get back to trend growth rates in 2010. Global players seem to be willing to re‐rate the country and have the confidence to look through the short‐term growth slowdown and focus once again on the long‐term picture. FII investment in this year has crosses $ 3 billion or Rs. 15491 crores as per the latest data available from SEBI`s website. The total investment of FIIs has crossed $ 58 billion. The total number of registered FIIs and sub‐accounts are 1655 and 5103 respectively. From the financial markets perspective, everything now depends on execution. The new government has the mandate, there is a huge opportunity to bring about structural change across sectors, and the policy road map is also clear. We need the new government to deliver.
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22nd May, 2009
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