Fff.xls
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Ejercicios de proyeccion de la demanda Año 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
PBI Agropec. S/13,503,340.00 S/13,059,090.00 S/13,501,061.00 S/15,748,256.00 S/16,616,277.00 S/16,861,769.00 S/17,757,947.00 S/17,138,548.00 S/17,010,449.00 S/18,001,057.00 S/18,118,075.00 S/19,185,328.00 S/19,806,388.00 S/21,269,785.00 S/22,652,210.00
Tarea: Realizar las proyecciones hasta el ano 2022 utilizando modelos, lineal, cuadratica(polinomial), logaritmica,potencia
Estimar el deficit de agua en un horizonte Poblacion 2015 tasa crec. Pob factor de consu Horizonte Poblacion Demanda Oferta Deficit HORIZONTE POBLACION
DEMANDA OFERTA DEFICIT
59,275 0.04 0.2 12 años
e 12 años
4%
5000 m3/a
0
1
2
3
4
5
59275 59275 59275 11855.00
61646 61646 61646 12329.20
64112 64112 64112 12822.37
66676 66676 66676 13335.26
69343 69343 69343 13868.67
72117 72117 72117 14423.42
5000.00
5000.00
5000.00
5000.00
5000.00
5000.00
6855
7329
7822
8335
8869
9423
omial), logaritmica,potencial y exponencial
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
75002 75002 75002 15000.36
78002 78002 78002 15600.37
81122 81122 81122 16224.39
84367 84367 84367 16873.36
87741 87741 87741 17548.30
91251 91251 91251 18250.23
94901 94901 94901 18980.24
5000.00
5000.00
5000.00
5000.00
5000.00
5000.00
5000.00
10000
10600
11224
11873
12548
13250
13980
x -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
y 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
y estimado 1 2 3 5 7 9 12 15 18 22 27 ? ?
-1.73 0.82 3.36 5.91 8.45 11.00 13.55 16.09 18.64 21.18 23.73 26.27 28.82
11+2.55X -1.75 0.80 3.35 5.90 8.45 11.00 13.55 16.10 18.65 21.20 23.75 26.30 28.85
30 25 20
f(x) = 2.5454545455x - 4.27272727 R² = 0.9579667644
15
12
10 5
3
5
7
9
2 1 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
27 f(x) = 2.5454545455x - 4.2727272727 R² = 0.9579667644
22 18 15
12
1
2
3
5
7
9
999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Column D Linear (Column D)
PBI Agropec. S/13,503,340.00 S/13,059,090.00 S/13,501,061.00 S/15,748,256.00 S/16,616,277.00 S/16,861,769.00 S/17,757,947.00 S/17,138,548.00 S/17,010,449.00 S/18,001,057.00 S/18,118,075.00 S/19,185,328.00 S/19,806,388.00 S/21,269,785.00 S/22,652,210.00
Tarea: Realizar las proyecciones hasta el ano 2022 utilizando modelos, lineal, cuadratica(polinomial), logaritmica,potencia
Estimar el deficit de agua en un horizonte Poblacion 2015 tasa crec. Pob factor de consu Horizonte Poblacion Demanda Oferta Deficit HORIZONTE POBLACION
DEMANDA OFERTA DEFICIT
59,275 0.04 0.2 12 años
e 12 años
4%
5000 m3/a
0
1
2
3
4
5
59275 59275 59275 11855.00
61646 61646 61646 12329.20
64112 64112 64112 12822.37
66676 66676 66676 13335.26
69343 69343 69343 13868.67
72117 72117 72117 14423.42
5000.00
5000.00
5000.00
5000.00
5000.00
5000.00
6855
7329
7822
8335
8869
9423
omial), logaritmica,potencial y exponencial
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
75002 75002 75002 15000.36
78002 78002 78002 15600.37
81122 81122 81122 16224.39
84367 84367 84367 16873.36
87741 87741 87741 17548.30
91251 91251 91251 18250.23
94901 94901 94901 18980.24
5000.00
5000.00
5000.00
5000.00
5000.00
5000.00
5000.00
10000
10600
11224
11873
12548
13250
13980
x -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
y 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
y estimado 1 2 3 5 7 9 12 15 18 22 27 ? ?
-1.73 0.82 3.36 5.91 8.45 11.00 13.55 16.09 18.64 21.18 23.73 26.27 28.82
11+2.55X -1.75 0.80 3.35 5.90 8.45 11.00 13.55 16.10 18.65 21.20 23.75 26.30 28.85
30 25 20
f(x) = 2.5454545455x - 4.27272727 R² = 0.9579667644
15
12
10 5
3
5
7
9
2 1 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
27 f(x) = 2.5454545455x - 4.2727272727 R² = 0.9579667644
22 18 15
12
1
2
3
5
7
9
999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Column D Linear (Column D)
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