Farm Input Workshop
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Farm Input Workshop
Fertilizer Prices Background and Outlook
3 July 2008
Population & Agricultural Area
World Cereal Stocks Stock-to-Use Ratio 35%
FAO
USDA
30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 95/96
97/98
99/00
01/02
03/04
05/06
07/08
Source: FAO + USDA
Key Drivers of World Agriculture and Fertilizer Demand  Continued world population growth: More food and fiber  Income growth: More meat, fish, fruits, vegetables, sugar and veg oils; less cereals and pulses per capita
 High oil prices: Strong incentives for bioenergy production; ag commodity prices higher and more volatile
 Limited immediately available additional arable land: No alternative to increasing yields; increased cultivated area in South America and SE Asia
 Growing environmental concerns: Increased recycling of organic nutrient sources; optimization of nutrient use efficiency
 Improved technologies: Higher resource use efficiency
World Fertilizer Use By Region
AIR
AMMONIA (NH3)
METHANE DAP/MAP SULPHUR
ROCK
SULPHURIC ACID
PHOSPHORIC ACID
World Sulphur Supply/Demand Balance 2006 to 2009 Mt S 60
Supply 57.3
58 56
53.1
54
Demand
52 50
54.4
49.6 48.1
52.1
48 46
48.6 47.7
44 42
- 0.4
-0.9
+1.0
+ 2.9
Balance
40 2006
2007 e
2008 f
2009 Source: IFA
Sulphur Prices
Phosphorus Reserves
World Phosphoric Acid Supply/Demand Balance: 2007 to 2011 Mt P2O5 Supply : + 4.2 % p.a.
43,3 41,1
39,7
40
38,5 36,8
41.5 40,2
38,9
37,5 36,0
Demand : + 3.6 % p.a.
30
20 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: IFA
World DAP Prices
Gas Reserves - Nitrogen raw material
The Market 20 June 2008
Ammonia Prices 20 June 2008
World Urea Supply/Demand Balance 2006 to 2008
Source: IFA
World Urea Supply/Demand Balance 2007 to 2011 Mt urea 20
Mt urea Supply / Demand 200
Balance
Supply : + 5.2 % p.a.
18
180
16
160
14
140 15.1
Demand : + 3.4 % p.a.
12 10
120 12.3
100
8
80 8.4
6
60
4
40 4.5
2 0
20
1.9 0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 Source: IFA
World Urea Production and Trade Mt urea 160 140
143.1 : + 5.7 %
135.3
129.5
120 100 80 60 40
29.6
31.4
35.1 : + 11.6 %
20 0 2004
2005
2006
Production
Exports
2007 e Source: IFA
Chinese Fertilizer Export Tariffs
2007
2008
DAP
MAP
P-Rock TSP/SSP
Before June 1
0
0
10%
0
June 1- Sep 30
20%
0
20%
0
Oct 1-Dec 31
10%
0
20%
0
Jan 1-Feb 15
20%
20%
20%
0
Feb 15-Apr 20
35%
35%
20%
0
Apr 1 - 20
35%
35%
20%
30%
Apr 20-Sep 30
135%
135%
120%
130%
World Urea Prices
Potash Reserves
World Potash Supply/Demand Balance 2006 to 2008 Mt K2O 40 37.4 - Supply
38.9 : + 4 %
39.2 : + 1 %
35 34.4 : + 4 % 32.9 : + 7 % 30
30.8 - Demand
25
20 2006
2007 e
2008 f
Source: IFA
World Potash Supply/Demand Balance 2007 to 2011 Mt K2O 50 Supply : 3.2 % p.a. 40
43.2
38.4
36.4 30
32.4 Demand : 3.0 % p.a.
20
10 6.0
Balance
6.8
5.0
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 Source: IFA
World Potash Prices GRANULAR KCl 900 US$/t spot 800 700 600
East Coast Latin America cfr
500 400 300 200 100 0
West Europe fob export 93 9495 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
FMB 20 June
In Short Supply is very tight
Fertilizer Prices Background and Outlook
3 July 2008
Population & Agricultural Area
World Cereal Stocks Stock-to-Use Ratio 35%
FAO
USDA
30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 95/96
97/98
99/00
01/02
03/04
05/06
07/08
Source: FAO + USDA
Key Drivers of World Agriculture and Fertilizer Demand  Continued world population growth: More food and fiber  Income growth: More meat, fish, fruits, vegetables, sugar and veg oils; less cereals and pulses per capita
 High oil prices: Strong incentives for bioenergy production; ag commodity prices higher and more volatile
 Limited immediately available additional arable land: No alternative to increasing yields; increased cultivated area in South America and SE Asia
 Growing environmental concerns: Increased recycling of organic nutrient sources; optimization of nutrient use efficiency
 Improved technologies: Higher resource use efficiency
World Fertilizer Use By Region
AIR
AMMONIA (NH3)
METHANE DAP/MAP SULPHUR
ROCK
SULPHURIC ACID
PHOSPHORIC ACID
World Sulphur Supply/Demand Balance 2006 to 2009 Mt S 60
Supply 57.3
58 56
53.1
54
Demand
52 50
54.4
49.6 48.1
52.1
48 46
48.6 47.7
44 42
- 0.4
-0.9
+1.0
+ 2.9
Balance
40 2006
2007 e
2008 f
2009 Source: IFA
Sulphur Prices
Phosphorus Reserves
World Phosphoric Acid Supply/Demand Balance: 2007 to 2011 Mt P2O5 Supply : + 4.2 % p.a.
43,3 41,1
39,7
40
38,5 36,8
41.5 40,2
38,9
37,5 36,0
Demand : + 3.6 % p.a.
30
20 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: IFA
World DAP Prices
Gas Reserves - Nitrogen raw material
The Market 20 June 2008
Ammonia Prices 20 June 2008
World Urea Supply/Demand Balance 2006 to 2008
Source: IFA
World Urea Supply/Demand Balance 2007 to 2011 Mt urea 20
Mt urea Supply / Demand 200
Balance
Supply : + 5.2 % p.a.
18
180
16
160
14
140 15.1
Demand : + 3.4 % p.a.
12 10
120 12.3
100
8
80 8.4
6
60
4
40 4.5
2 0
20
1.9 0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 Source: IFA
World Urea Production and Trade Mt urea 160 140
143.1 : + 5.7 %
135.3
129.5
120 100 80 60 40
29.6
31.4
35.1 : + 11.6 %
20 0 2004
2005
2006
Production
Exports
2007 e Source: IFA
Chinese Fertilizer Export Tariffs
2007
2008
DAP
MAP
P-Rock TSP/SSP
Before June 1
0
0
10%
0
June 1- Sep 30
20%
0
20%
0
Oct 1-Dec 31
10%
0
20%
0
Jan 1-Feb 15
20%
20%
20%
0
Feb 15-Apr 20
35%
35%
20%
0
Apr 1 - 20
35%
35%
20%
30%
Apr 20-Sep 30
135%
135%
120%
130%
World Urea Prices
Potash Reserves
World Potash Supply/Demand Balance 2006 to 2008 Mt K2O 40 37.4 - Supply
38.9 : + 4 %
39.2 : + 1 %
35 34.4 : + 4 % 32.9 : + 7 % 30
30.8 - Demand
25
20 2006
2007 e
2008 f
Source: IFA
World Potash Supply/Demand Balance 2007 to 2011 Mt K2O 50 Supply : 3.2 % p.a. 40
43.2
38.4
36.4 30
32.4 Demand : 3.0 % p.a.
20
10 6.0
Balance
6.8
5.0
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 Source: IFA
World Potash Prices GRANULAR KCl 900 US$/t spot 800 700 600
East Coast Latin America cfr
500 400 300 200 100 0
West Europe fob export 93 9495 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
FMB 20 June
In Short Supply is very tight
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