Failed States

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4350

Why should we care about failed states? 2002 U.S. National Security Strategy: “America is now threatened less by conquering states than we are by failing ones.” Who are we worried about? Iraq, North Korea, Iran

What is a failed state anyway? Some obvious indicators: Government has lost control of its territory or of the monopoly on the legitimate use of force (Extra Credit? Which political theorist defined the state as the bearer of the monopoly on the legitimate use of violence? Think back to the beginning of the semester.) More subtle indicators: When regimes lack the authority or capacity to deliver public services. Population relies entirely on the black market, doesn’t pay taxes, general disrespect for the government  civil disobedience.

Why should we care about failed states? failed states are known as a source of dangerous exports: international terrorists, drug lords, weapons arsenals

How many? World Bank: 30 “low-income countries under stress.” Great Britain’s Department for International Development: 46 “fragile” states of concern.” CIA: 20

Foreign Policy and the Fund for Peace 12 indicators Ranks 60 states in order of their vulnerability to violent internal conflict. Index of the the new world disorder of the 21st century?

~2 billion people live in insecure states. Differing degrees of “instability:” Conflict, famine, disease outbreaks, refugee flows Elements just below surface, yet to manifest “Lawless” territory Ex: Cote d’Ivoire, Colombia Chechnya, Philippines Afghanistan, Somalia

Sometimes states collapse suddenly, but usually there is a slow and steady deterioration of social and political institutions leading to the decay of the state. Ex: Zimbabwe (#3) Robert Mugabe, in control since 1980. • Came to power as national hero • Initially promoted peace and national reconciliation. Increased education • But couldn’t improve the economy more educated population began to challenge his policies  more repression.

"This thing called democracy is a problem. It's a difficult proposition because always the opposition will want much more than what it deserves.“ --Robert Mugabe

Morgan Tsvangirai, Robert Mugabe and Arthur Mutambara

Power-sharing deal: enough to keep Zimbabwe from failing?

World Bank : within five years, half of all countries emerging from civil unrest fall back into conflict in a cycle of collapse. Ex: Haiti and Liberia.

While weak states are most prevalent in Africa, they also exist in Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East

Bolivia (#55): civil war?

President Evo Morales

Ukraine (#108): The image of stability?

Governing coalition between president Yushchenko and prime minister Tymoshenko fell apart this month

No easy answers. Elections often seen as indicator of stability But not always

EX: Ukraine Fraudulent elections  outrage. Potential collapse of state avoided by Supreme Court decision that gave Yushchenko his rightful place as president.

12 indicators. Two consistently rank near the top: Uneven development Inequality within states (not just poverty) that increases instability. Criminalization or delegitimization of the state State institutions regarded as corrupt, illegal, or ineffective shift in allegiances to other leaders (opposition parties, warlords, ethnic nationalists, clergy, or rebel forces.)

Other prominent indicators: Population pressures: refugees and internally displaced populations. Ex: Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Colombia. Severe environmental degradation.

Remember? Transition Consolidation