Eyefortravel - Online Travel Agent Focus North America 2009
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North American Online Travel Report 2009
- Online Travel Agent Focus -
EyeforTravel Research 7-9 Fashion Street London E1 6PX UK For queries contact: [email protected] www.eyefortravelresearch.com EyeforTravel Ltd, April 2009
2
© EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
Table of Contents
North America Online Travel Report 2009
Table of Contents List of Figures Methodology Executive Summary
4 7 11
Chapter 1: North American Travel Market Analysis
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North American Travel Market Overview US vs. Canada Travel Market Analysis US Travel Market Analysis Canadian Travel Market Analysis Chapter 2: North American Online Travel Agent Market Analysis North American Online Travel Agent Market Overview US Online Travel Agent Market Analysis Canadian Online Travel Agent Market Analysis
© EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
15 35 43 52 61 61 67 78
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List of Figures
List of Figures Figure 1.1: Figure 1.2: Figure 1.3: Figure 1.4: Figure 1.5: Figure 1.6: Figure 1.7: Figure 1.8: Figure 1.9: Figure 1.10: Figure 1.11: Figure 1.12: Figure 1.13: Figure 1.14: Figure 1.15: Figure 1.16: Figure 1.17: Figure 1.18: Figure 1.19: Figure 1.20: Figure 1.21: Figure 1.22: Figure 1.23: Figure 1.24: Figure 1.25: Figure 1.26: Figure 1.27: Figure 1.28: Figure 1.29: Figure 1.30: Figure 1.31: Figure 1.32: Figure 1.33: Figure 1.34: Figure 1.35: Figure 1.36: Figure 1.37: Figure 1.38: Figure 1.39: Figure 1.40: Figure 1.41: Figure 1.42: Figure 1.43: Figure 1.44: Figure 1.45: Figure 1.46: Figure 1.47: Figure 1.48: Figure 1.49: Figure 1.50: Figure 1.51:
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North America Total Volume of Travel, 2002-2012F North America Volume of Travel - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F North America Volume of Domestic Travel, 2002-2012F North America Volume of Outbound Travel, 2002-2012F North America Travel Market Gross Value, 2002-2012F Spend per Trip in US$ (North America), 2002-2012F North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F North American Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F North American Travel Market - CAGR by Sector, 2002-2007 and 2008-2012F Online Penetration of the North American Travel Market, 2002-2012F Value of North American Travel Market - Online vs. Offline, 2002-2012F Sector Breakdown of North American Online Travel Market (%), 2008 Sector Breakdown of North American Online Travel Market (%), 2002-2012F North American Online Travel Market - CAGR by Sector, 2002-2007 and 2008-2012F Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Airline Market, 2002-2012F Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Hotel Market, 2002-2012F Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Car Rental Market, 2002-2012 Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Bus Market, 2002-2012F Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Cruise Market, 2002-2012F Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Railway Market, 2002-2012F Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Package Market, 2002-2012F Value of the North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2008 North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F North American Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Spend per Trip (North America Averages) - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2008 Value of the North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F North American Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown Values (US$), 2002-2012F North American Outbound Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F North American Outbound Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 North American Outbound Online Travel Market Value - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F US vs. Canada Total Volume of Travel, 2002-2012F US vs. Canada Total Volume of Travel (%), 2002-2012F US Volume of Domestic Trips, 2002-2012F US Volume of Outbound Trips, 2002-2012F Canada Volume of Domestic Trips, 2002-2012F Canada Volume of Outbound Trips, 2002-2012F Value of the North American Travel Market - US vs. Canada, 2002-2012F North American Travel Market - US vs. Canada (%), 2002-2012F Average Spend per Person per Trip - US and Canada, 2002-2012F North American Online Travel Market - US vs.Canada (%), 2002-2012F Value of the North American Online Travel Market, US vs. Canada, 2002-2012F Online Penetration Comparison of the US and Canadian Gross Travel Markets, 2002-2012F Online Penetration of the US Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F
© EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
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Figure 1.52: Figure 1.53: Figure 1.54: Figure 1.55: Figure 1.56: Figure 1.57: Figure 1.58: Figure 1.59: Figure 1.60: Figure 1.61: Figure 1.62: Figure 1.63: Figure 1.64: Figure 1.65: Figure 1.66: Figure 1.67: Figure 1.68: Figure 1.69: Figure 1.70: Figure 1.71: Figure 1.72: Figure 1.73: Figure 1.74: Figure 1.75: Figure 1.76: Figure 1.77: Figure 1.78: Figure 1.79: Figure 1.80: Figure 1.81: Figure 1.82: Figure 1.83: Figure 1.84: Figure 1.85: Figure 2.1: Figure 2.2: Figure 2.3: Figure 2.4: Figure 2.5: Figure 2.6: Figure 2.7: Figure 2.8: Figure 2.9: Figure 2.10: Figure 2.11: Figure 2.12: Figure 2.13: Figure 2.14:
Online Penetration of the Canadian Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F Value of the US Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F Value of the US Online Travel Market, 2002-2012F US Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of US Gross Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F Outbound Travel Destination Trends, 2002-2012F Value of US Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F US Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Online Penetration Comparison of US Domestic and Outbound Travel Markets, 2002-2012F US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F US Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F US Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F Sector Online Penetration, 2002-2012F Value of the Canadian Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F Canadian Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Canadian Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market, 2002-2012F Canadian Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Online Penetration Comparison of Domestic and Outbound Canadian Travel Market, 2002-2012F Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market – Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (CAD $), 2002-2012F Canadian Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 Sector Online Penetration, 2002-2012F Canadian Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (CAD $), 2002-2012F North American Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%), 2002-2012F Value of the North American Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 2002-2012F Value of the North American Online Travel Market Sector Breakdown (US$ million) - Direct vs. Indirect, 2008 North American Online Travel Agent Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F Value of the North American Online Travel Agent Market - Sector Breakdown, 2002-2012F US Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F Canadian Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F North American Online Airline Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002-2012F North American Online Hotel Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002-2012F North American Online Car Rental Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002-2012F North American Online Bus Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002-2012F North American Online Cruise Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 20022012F North American Online Rail Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002-2012F North American Online Package Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 20022012F
© EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
List of Figures
North America Online Travel Report 2009
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List of Figures
Figure 2.15: Figure 2.16: Figure 2.17: Figure 2.18: Figure 2.19: Figure 2.20: Figure 2.21: Figure 2.22: Figure 2.23: Figure 2.24: Figure 2.25: Figure 2.26: Figure 2.27: Figure 2.28: Figure 2.29: Figure 2.30: Figure 2.31: Figure 2.32: Figure 2.33: Figure 2.34: Figure 2.35: Figure 2.36: Figure 2.37: Figure 2.38: Figure 2.39: Figure 2.40: Figure 2.41: Figure 2.42: Figure 2.43: Figure 2.44: Figure 2.45: Figure 2.46: Figure 2.47: Figure 2.48:
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Value of the US Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 2002-2012F Value of the US Online Travel Market Sector Breakdown (US$ million) Direct vs. Indirect, 2008 US Online Travel Agent Market Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 US Domestic Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect (%), 2002-2012F Value of the US Domestic Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F US Outbound Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect (%), 2002-2012F Value of the US Outbound Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F Indirect US Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Indirect US Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 20022012F Indirect US Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Indirect US Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F Indirect US Online Car Rental Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Indirect US Online Car Rental Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 20022012F Indirect US Online Cruise Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Indirect US Online Cruise Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F Indirect US Online Package Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Indirect US Online Package Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 20022012F Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 20022012F Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market Sector Breakdown (US$ million) - Direct vs. Indirect, 2008 Canadian Online Travel Agent Market Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 Canadian Domestic Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect (%), 2002-2012F Canadian Domestic Online Travel Market Y-o-Y Growth, Direct vs. Indirect, 20022012F Canadian Outbound Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect (%), 2002-2012F Canadian Domestic Online Travel Market Y-o-Y Growth - Direct vs. Indirect, 20022012F Indirect Canadian Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 20022012F Indirect Canadian Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 20022012F Indirect Canadian Online Car Rental Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 20022012F Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Car Rental Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F Indirect Canadian Online Cruise Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Cruise Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 20022012F Indirect Canadian Online Package Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Package Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F
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68 69 69 71 71 72 72 73 73 74 74 75 75 76 76 77 77 78 79 79 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 85 85 86 87 87 88 88
Executive Summary
North America Online Travel Report 2009
Executive Summary > North American Travel Market Overview 2009 to be the first year this decade that a decline in travel expenditure is expected in the region The value of the North American travel market reached an estimated US$389,376 million in 2008 and a further 16% increase in volume is expect by 2012, but growth has slowed. 2009 is expected to be the first year this decade for a decline in the total value of travel expenditure and we forecast a recovery in 2010. Fastest growth in Hotel and Cruise sectors Airlines continue to account for the largest proportion of travel spend, followed by Hotels. In 2008 these sectors accounted for 35% and 25% of the total market respectively. Fastest growth has been in the Hotel and Cruise sectors. Online penetration of North American travel market reaches 35% Distribution trends within the North American market reveal some particularly interesting patterns. Whilst offline channels continue to account for the majority of travel spend online channel have been rapidly gaining share. In 2008 the online penetration of the North American travel market reached about 35% of the value. By 2012 we are expecting almost half of travel expenditure to be online. Growth rates of the online channel are expected to be lower than previous years but between 2008 and 2012 a total growth in value of almost 50% is forecast. The online travel market by 2012 is predicted to reach a value of US$201,382 million. That is an additional US$57,498 million annually to be circulated online by the end of 2012. All growth is online While the gross travel market experiences a relatively stagnant period, amongst this, the online travel market is showing very healthy growth and continuing to erode offline share. This illustrates the growing importance of online channels and the resilience to the economic downturn. The Airline sector dominates the online travel market (56%) and online expenditure on Airline products reached US$75,964 million in 2008. The value of the online travel market is forecast to grow in value by 44% between 2008 and 2012. The Hotel sector accounts for 32% of the total online travel market and US$42,831 million in 2008. Growth by 2012 is forecast to be up by a value of over 50%. The Car Rental sector is the next largest sector accounting for 7.7% and a value of US$10,389 million (2008).
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Executive Summary
Growth in the value of the outbound travel market has been higher than the domestic travel market, but in 2009 a decline of 4.8% is expected in the outbound market for the first time. Good recovery is forecast for 2010. Domestic travel accounts for around 64% of the total online travel market and outbound 36%. Outbound travel products for North American consumers have performed well online and increased in share from 28% in 2002. From 2010 we expect grow in both domestic and outbound online markets to hit double digit figures again. Canada increases it significance in the North American travel market but US spend more per trip Canadian travellers accounted for 9.4% of total North American travel trips in 2002 and by 2012 we expect this to increase to 11.3%. Canada has out performed the US from a volume growth perspective. Canada is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2009, while the US experiences a decline of around 1%. In value terms, the US contributes 90% to the North American market and this is expected to remain relatively consistent during the review period in this report. US travellers have a higher spend per trip than Canadian travellers. US online travel market valued at US$123,346 million in 2008 The US accounts for 91% of the total North American online travel market. The US online travel market reached an estimated value of US$123,346 million in 2008 and Canada US$12,252 million (CAD $12,869 million). The US online market is slightly more advanced than Canada but penetration is relatively similar. 35.2% of US travel expenditure was online in 2008 against a 31.5% penetration for Canada. By 2012 we forecast 44.8% of all US travel expenditure to be online and 42% of Canadian. A continuously changing travel distribution landscape The contrast between the performances of online and offline channels is enormous. Online channels have been remarkably productive and growth rates have remained in double digit figures for every year reviewed in the report – with the exception of 2009 when annual growth is expected to fall to a level of 6.3% (still well above growth levels for the offline market for the entire period). Put alongside offline productivity, the 5.2% decline in the offline market for 2009 makes a very strong statement. The online channels certainly now seem strong despite times of instability. US outbound travel market is growing Just under 70% of US travel expenditure is currently on domestic travel. Outbound travel is growing well and at higher rates than the more mature domestic market. 2009 is however expected to result in an estimated 4.8% decline. Mexico and Canada are receiving the most outbound travellers, followed by the UK. Growth has been strongest in Germany
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Executive Summary
North America Online Travel Report 2009
and Japan. A slightly higher proportion of domestic travel is bought online in comparison to outbound travel, but only marginally. Canadian travel market reaches US$38,869 million (CAD $40,825 million) in 2008 By 2012 the Canadian travel market is expected to be 73% larger in size than it was in 2002. The Canadian market is very different from the US in that outbound travel accounts for the majority of the Canadian travel market. In 2008 outbound travel contributed around 67% to the total Canadian travel market. Annual growth has generally been higher for outbound travel and a 5.5% CAGR is expected for the 2007-2012 review period. Canadian online travel market valued at US$1,986 million (2008) Online channels are also becoming increasingly significant for the Canadian travel market. Online penetration has jumped from 11% in 2002 to around 32% in 2008. Growth is expected to slow but continue to expand and penetrate around 42% of the market by 2012. The online travel market is divided fairly evenly between domestic and outbound markets, despite the domination of the outbound segment in the gross market. The domestic market has a higher online penetration and when in 2012 we forecast that 60% of domestic travel will be purchased online, 33% of the outbound segment will be online. Growth online for both has been remarkable though. Airline products make up a significant 61% of the Canadian online travel market and the data reveals that there is a lot of room for growth for some of the travel sectors.
> Online Travel Agents Landscape Revenue from Direct distribution to the North American market growing in most sectors Increasing Direct distribution has become the trend for most travel sectors in the North American market. OTAs have as a result gradually lost their share of the online market. In 2002 OTAs generated around 47% of online revenue from North American travel consumers and in 2008 this reduced to 35%. By 2012 this is expected to reduce further to 31%. In value terms, the Indirect market has grown in size alongside growing online markets in general and a 17.5% CAGR was calculated for the 2002-2007 review period. In 2008 the value of the Indirect market reached US$47,841 million. So growth has been healthy for the OTA sector but we do forecast the biggest dip for the market in 2009; 1.9% growth is expected for the Indirect market and 8.4% growth for Direct channels. In 2010 we expect to see good growth return and forecast a 9% growth for that year. Airline products dominate OTA revenue Airline products make up the majority of OTA revenue and accounted for around 52% in 2008. This is largely accounted for the sheer size of the online Airline market. Hotel products are also very dominant. Expenditure on Bus, Rail and Package products is mainly
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13
Executive Summary
channelled direct to suppliers. Nevertheless, these sectors have edged up their share in OTA revenues marginally and have as a consequence eroded some of the Airline share. The share of OTAs in the Canadian market is more pronounced that in the US. In 2008 25% of the Canadian online market was Indirect and 36% of the US market.
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- Online Travel Agent Focus -
EyeforTravel Research 7-9 Fashion Street London E1 6PX UK For queries contact: [email protected] www.eyefortravelresearch.com EyeforTravel Ltd, April 2009
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© EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
Table of Contents
North America Online Travel Report 2009
Table of Contents List of Figures Methodology Executive Summary
4 7 11
Chapter 1: North American Travel Market Analysis
15
North American Travel Market Overview US vs. Canada Travel Market Analysis US Travel Market Analysis Canadian Travel Market Analysis Chapter 2: North American Online Travel Agent Market Analysis North American Online Travel Agent Market Overview US Online Travel Agent Market Analysis Canadian Online Travel Agent Market Analysis
© EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
15 35 43 52 61 61 67 78
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List of Figures
List of Figures Figure 1.1: Figure 1.2: Figure 1.3: Figure 1.4: Figure 1.5: Figure 1.6: Figure 1.7: Figure 1.8: Figure 1.9: Figure 1.10: Figure 1.11: Figure 1.12: Figure 1.13: Figure 1.14: Figure 1.15: Figure 1.16: Figure 1.17: Figure 1.18: Figure 1.19: Figure 1.20: Figure 1.21: Figure 1.22: Figure 1.23: Figure 1.24: Figure 1.25: Figure 1.26: Figure 1.27: Figure 1.28: Figure 1.29: Figure 1.30: Figure 1.31: Figure 1.32: Figure 1.33: Figure 1.34: Figure 1.35: Figure 1.36: Figure 1.37: Figure 1.38: Figure 1.39: Figure 1.40: Figure 1.41: Figure 1.42: Figure 1.43: Figure 1.44: Figure 1.45: Figure 1.46: Figure 1.47: Figure 1.48: Figure 1.49: Figure 1.50: Figure 1.51:
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North America Total Volume of Travel, 2002-2012F North America Volume of Travel - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F North America Volume of Domestic Travel, 2002-2012F North America Volume of Outbound Travel, 2002-2012F North America Travel Market Gross Value, 2002-2012F Spend per Trip in US$ (North America), 2002-2012F North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F North American Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F North American Travel Market - CAGR by Sector, 2002-2007 and 2008-2012F Online Penetration of the North American Travel Market, 2002-2012F Value of North American Travel Market - Online vs. Offline, 2002-2012F Sector Breakdown of North American Online Travel Market (%), 2008 Sector Breakdown of North American Online Travel Market (%), 2002-2012F North American Online Travel Market - CAGR by Sector, 2002-2007 and 2008-2012F Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Airline Market, 2002-2012F Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Hotel Market, 2002-2012F Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Car Rental Market, 2002-2012 Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Bus Market, 2002-2012F Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Cruise Market, 2002-2012F Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Railway Market, 2002-2012F Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Package Market, 2002-2012F Value of the North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2008 North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F North American Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Spend per Trip (North America Averages) - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2008 Value of the North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F North American Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown Values (US$), 2002-2012F North American Outbound Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F North American Outbound Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 North American Outbound Online Travel Market Value - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F US vs. Canada Total Volume of Travel, 2002-2012F US vs. Canada Total Volume of Travel (%), 2002-2012F US Volume of Domestic Trips, 2002-2012F US Volume of Outbound Trips, 2002-2012F Canada Volume of Domestic Trips, 2002-2012F Canada Volume of Outbound Trips, 2002-2012F Value of the North American Travel Market - US vs. Canada, 2002-2012F North American Travel Market - US vs. Canada (%), 2002-2012F Average Spend per Person per Trip - US and Canada, 2002-2012F North American Online Travel Market - US vs.Canada (%), 2002-2012F Value of the North American Online Travel Market, US vs. Canada, 2002-2012F Online Penetration Comparison of the US and Canadian Gross Travel Markets, 2002-2012F Online Penetration of the US Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F
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Figure 1.52: Figure 1.53: Figure 1.54: Figure 1.55: Figure 1.56: Figure 1.57: Figure 1.58: Figure 1.59: Figure 1.60: Figure 1.61: Figure 1.62: Figure 1.63: Figure 1.64: Figure 1.65: Figure 1.66: Figure 1.67: Figure 1.68: Figure 1.69: Figure 1.70: Figure 1.71: Figure 1.72: Figure 1.73: Figure 1.74: Figure 1.75: Figure 1.76: Figure 1.77: Figure 1.78: Figure 1.79: Figure 1.80: Figure 1.81: Figure 1.82: Figure 1.83: Figure 1.84: Figure 1.85: Figure 2.1: Figure 2.2: Figure 2.3: Figure 2.4: Figure 2.5: Figure 2.6: Figure 2.7: Figure 2.8: Figure 2.9: Figure 2.10: Figure 2.11: Figure 2.12: Figure 2.13: Figure 2.14:
Online Penetration of the Canadian Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F Value of the US Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F Value of the US Online Travel Market, 2002-2012F US Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of US Gross Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F Outbound Travel Destination Trends, 2002-2012F Value of US Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F US Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Online Penetration Comparison of US Domestic and Outbound Travel Markets, 2002-2012F US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F US Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F US Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F Sector Online Penetration, 2002-2012F Value of the Canadian Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F Canadian Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Canadian Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market, 2002-2012F Canadian Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Online Penetration Comparison of Domestic and Outbound Canadian Travel Market, 2002-2012F Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market – Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (CAD $), 2002-2012F Canadian Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 Sector Online Penetration, 2002-2012F Canadian Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (CAD $), 2002-2012F North American Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%), 2002-2012F Value of the North American Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 2002-2012F Value of the North American Online Travel Market Sector Breakdown (US$ million) - Direct vs. Indirect, 2008 North American Online Travel Agent Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F Value of the North American Online Travel Agent Market - Sector Breakdown, 2002-2012F US Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F Canadian Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F North American Online Airline Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002-2012F North American Online Hotel Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002-2012F North American Online Car Rental Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002-2012F North American Online Bus Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002-2012F North American Online Cruise Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 20022012F North American Online Rail Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002-2012F North American Online Package Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 20022012F
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List of Figures
North America Online Travel Report 2009
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List of Figures
Figure 2.15: Figure 2.16: Figure 2.17: Figure 2.18: Figure 2.19: Figure 2.20: Figure 2.21: Figure 2.22: Figure 2.23: Figure 2.24: Figure 2.25: Figure 2.26: Figure 2.27: Figure 2.28: Figure 2.29: Figure 2.30: Figure 2.31: Figure 2.32: Figure 2.33: Figure 2.34: Figure 2.35: Figure 2.36: Figure 2.37: Figure 2.38: Figure 2.39: Figure 2.40: Figure 2.41: Figure 2.42: Figure 2.43: Figure 2.44: Figure 2.45: Figure 2.46: Figure 2.47: Figure 2.48:
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Value of the US Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 2002-2012F Value of the US Online Travel Market Sector Breakdown (US$ million) Direct vs. Indirect, 2008 US Online Travel Agent Market Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 US Domestic Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect (%), 2002-2012F Value of the US Domestic Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F US Outbound Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect (%), 2002-2012F Value of the US Outbound Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F Indirect US Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Indirect US Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 20022012F Indirect US Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Indirect US Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F Indirect US Online Car Rental Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Indirect US Online Car Rental Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 20022012F Indirect US Online Cruise Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Indirect US Online Cruise Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F Indirect US Online Package Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Indirect US Online Package Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 20022012F Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 20022012F Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market Sector Breakdown (US$ million) - Direct vs. Indirect, 2008 Canadian Online Travel Agent Market Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 Canadian Domestic Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect (%), 2002-2012F Canadian Domestic Online Travel Market Y-o-Y Growth, Direct vs. Indirect, 20022012F Canadian Outbound Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect (%), 2002-2012F Canadian Domestic Online Travel Market Y-o-Y Growth - Direct vs. Indirect, 20022012F Indirect Canadian Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 20022012F Indirect Canadian Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 20022012F Indirect Canadian Online Car Rental Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 20022012F Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Car Rental Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F Indirect Canadian Online Cruise Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Cruise Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 20022012F Indirect Canadian Online Package Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Package Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F
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Executive Summary
North America Online Travel Report 2009
Executive Summary > North American Travel Market Overview 2009 to be the first year this decade that a decline in travel expenditure is expected in the region The value of the North American travel market reached an estimated US$389,376 million in 2008 and a further 16% increase in volume is expect by 2012, but growth has slowed. 2009 is expected to be the first year this decade for a decline in the total value of travel expenditure and we forecast a recovery in 2010. Fastest growth in Hotel and Cruise sectors Airlines continue to account for the largest proportion of travel spend, followed by Hotels. In 2008 these sectors accounted for 35% and 25% of the total market respectively. Fastest growth has been in the Hotel and Cruise sectors. Online penetration of North American travel market reaches 35% Distribution trends within the North American market reveal some particularly interesting patterns. Whilst offline channels continue to account for the majority of travel spend online channel have been rapidly gaining share. In 2008 the online penetration of the North American travel market reached about 35% of the value. By 2012 we are expecting almost half of travel expenditure to be online. Growth rates of the online channel are expected to be lower than previous years but between 2008 and 2012 a total growth in value of almost 50% is forecast. The online travel market by 2012 is predicted to reach a value of US$201,382 million. That is an additional US$57,498 million annually to be circulated online by the end of 2012. All growth is online While the gross travel market experiences a relatively stagnant period, amongst this, the online travel market is showing very healthy growth and continuing to erode offline share. This illustrates the growing importance of online channels and the resilience to the economic downturn. The Airline sector dominates the online travel market (56%) and online expenditure on Airline products reached US$75,964 million in 2008. The value of the online travel market is forecast to grow in value by 44% between 2008 and 2012. The Hotel sector accounts for 32% of the total online travel market and US$42,831 million in 2008. Growth by 2012 is forecast to be up by a value of over 50%. The Car Rental sector is the next largest sector accounting for 7.7% and a value of US$10,389 million (2008).
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Executive Summary
Growth in the value of the outbound travel market has been higher than the domestic travel market, but in 2009 a decline of 4.8% is expected in the outbound market for the first time. Good recovery is forecast for 2010. Domestic travel accounts for around 64% of the total online travel market and outbound 36%. Outbound travel products for North American consumers have performed well online and increased in share from 28% in 2002. From 2010 we expect grow in both domestic and outbound online markets to hit double digit figures again. Canada increases it significance in the North American travel market but US spend more per trip Canadian travellers accounted for 9.4% of total North American travel trips in 2002 and by 2012 we expect this to increase to 11.3%. Canada has out performed the US from a volume growth perspective. Canada is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2009, while the US experiences a decline of around 1%. In value terms, the US contributes 90% to the North American market and this is expected to remain relatively consistent during the review period in this report. US travellers have a higher spend per trip than Canadian travellers. US online travel market valued at US$123,346 million in 2008 The US accounts for 91% of the total North American online travel market. The US online travel market reached an estimated value of US$123,346 million in 2008 and Canada US$12,252 million (CAD $12,869 million). The US online market is slightly more advanced than Canada but penetration is relatively similar. 35.2% of US travel expenditure was online in 2008 against a 31.5% penetration for Canada. By 2012 we forecast 44.8% of all US travel expenditure to be online and 42% of Canadian. A continuously changing travel distribution landscape The contrast between the performances of online and offline channels is enormous. Online channels have been remarkably productive and growth rates have remained in double digit figures for every year reviewed in the report – with the exception of 2009 when annual growth is expected to fall to a level of 6.3% (still well above growth levels for the offline market for the entire period). Put alongside offline productivity, the 5.2% decline in the offline market for 2009 makes a very strong statement. The online channels certainly now seem strong despite times of instability. US outbound travel market is growing Just under 70% of US travel expenditure is currently on domestic travel. Outbound travel is growing well and at higher rates than the more mature domestic market. 2009 is however expected to result in an estimated 4.8% decline. Mexico and Canada are receiving the most outbound travellers, followed by the UK. Growth has been strongest in Germany
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Executive Summary
North America Online Travel Report 2009
and Japan. A slightly higher proportion of domestic travel is bought online in comparison to outbound travel, but only marginally. Canadian travel market reaches US$38,869 million (CAD $40,825 million) in 2008 By 2012 the Canadian travel market is expected to be 73% larger in size than it was in 2002. The Canadian market is very different from the US in that outbound travel accounts for the majority of the Canadian travel market. In 2008 outbound travel contributed around 67% to the total Canadian travel market. Annual growth has generally been higher for outbound travel and a 5.5% CAGR is expected for the 2007-2012 review period. Canadian online travel market valued at US$1,986 million (2008) Online channels are also becoming increasingly significant for the Canadian travel market. Online penetration has jumped from 11% in 2002 to around 32% in 2008. Growth is expected to slow but continue to expand and penetrate around 42% of the market by 2012. The online travel market is divided fairly evenly between domestic and outbound markets, despite the domination of the outbound segment in the gross market. The domestic market has a higher online penetration and when in 2012 we forecast that 60% of domestic travel will be purchased online, 33% of the outbound segment will be online. Growth online for both has been remarkable though. Airline products make up a significant 61% of the Canadian online travel market and the data reveals that there is a lot of room for growth for some of the travel sectors.
> Online Travel Agents Landscape Revenue from Direct distribution to the North American market growing in most sectors Increasing Direct distribution has become the trend for most travel sectors in the North American market. OTAs have as a result gradually lost their share of the online market. In 2002 OTAs generated around 47% of online revenue from North American travel consumers and in 2008 this reduced to 35%. By 2012 this is expected to reduce further to 31%. In value terms, the Indirect market has grown in size alongside growing online markets in general and a 17.5% CAGR was calculated for the 2002-2007 review period. In 2008 the value of the Indirect market reached US$47,841 million. So growth has been healthy for the OTA sector but we do forecast the biggest dip for the market in 2009; 1.9% growth is expected for the Indirect market and 8.4% growth for Direct channels. In 2010 we expect to see good growth return and forecast a 9% growth for that year. Airline products dominate OTA revenue Airline products make up the majority of OTA revenue and accounted for around 52% in 2008. This is largely accounted for the sheer size of the online Airline market. Hotel products are also very dominant. Expenditure on Bus, Rail and Package products is mainly
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Executive Summary
channelled direct to suppliers. Nevertheless, these sectors have edged up their share in OTA revenues marginally and have as a consequence eroded some of the Airline share. The share of OTAs in the Canadian market is more pronounced that in the US. In 2008 25% of the Canadian online market was Indirect and 36% of the US market.
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