European Lumber Exports June 2003

Growing European Lumber Imports to the US: A Cause for Concern? Transportation and Marketing of Wood Products Conference June 19, 2003 Whistler, British Columbia

Håkan Ekström Wood Resources International

Wood Resources International

• US Softwood Lumber Demand Trend • US Softwood Lumber Imports • European Lumber Exports • Raw-material Cost Trends • The Future ….

Wood Resources International

Lumber Consumption, Trade and Production 60 50

Billion bf

40 30 20 10 0 1991

1992

1993

1994

Production Source: WWPA and FAS

1995

1996

Import

1997

Export

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Consumption Wood Resources International

Conifer Lumber Imports to the US 1200 1000

Index: 1998=100

800 600 400 200 0

1998

Canada Source: US Department of Commerce

1999

Europe

2000

Latin America

2001

Other

2002

Total Wood Resources International

Lumber Imports to the US 100%

80%

Other Latin America Europe Canada

60%

40%

20%

0%

1998

1999

Source: US Department of Commerce

2000

2001

2002

1q/03 Wood Resources International

Softwood Lumber Imports to the US in 2002 Non-Canadian Austria 8.7%

Lithuania 3.1%

Sweden 12.9%

Other Europe 3.5% Russia 2.1% New Zealand 11.9%

Germany 21.9% Other 6.0%

Source: US Department of Commerce

Brazil 14.0% Chile 16.0%

Wood Resources International

120

1.2

100

1.1

80

1

60

0.9

40

0.8

20

0.7

0

0.6 1q-01

2q

3q Germany

Source: US Department of Commerce

4q

1q-02

Austria

2q Sweden

3q

4q

Euro/US$

1000 mbf

Lumber Imports to the US from the EU

1q-03

Euro/US$ Wood Resources International

Conifer Sawlog Costs in 1q/2003 (Delivered in US$/m3ub) Index (BC Interior=100)

250 200 150 100 50

Source: Wood Resource Quarterly (WRI)

le C hi

Br az il

Ba lti cs N ew Ze al an d

er m an y G

tr ia A us

Sw ed en

BC ,I

nt er io r BC ,C oa st

0

Wood Resources International

Conifer Sawlog Price Index 1997-2003 140 120 100 80 60 40 20

BC, Interior

New Zealand

Source: Wood Resource Quarterly (WRI)

Chile

Germany

1q /0 3

3q

1q /0 2

3q

1q /0 1

3q

1q /0 0

3q

1q /9 9

3q

1q /9 8

3q

0

1q /9 7

1q/1997=100 (Based on local currency)

160

Sweden Wood Resources International

Conifer Sawlog Price Index 1997-2003 1q/1997=100 (Based on US dollars)

120 100 80 60 40 20

BC, Interior

New Zealand

Source: Wood Resource Quarterly (WRI)

Chile

Germany

1q /0 3

3q

1q /0 2

3q

1q /0 1

3q

1q /0 0

3q

1q /9 9

3q

1q /9 8

3q

1q /9 7

0

Sweden Wood Resources International

Forest Product Net Trade in the Pacific Rim Net Trade in 1998

Req Net Trade in 2010

Change in Net Trade

60 40

Million m3 (rwe)

20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80

Conifer

Non-conifer

-100 Source: Pacific Rim Trade Outlook Study, WRI

Wood Resources International

The Future …. • US Lumber Demand and Production Capacity? • US Imports from Europe? • Lumber Exports from Russia? • Latin America’s Exports of Wood Products? • Lumber vs. Value-Added Imports? Wood Resources International

Questions? Håkan Ekström Wood Resources International Phone: 1-425-402-8809 Email: [email protected] www.woodprices.com

Wood Resources International