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Index 1NC....................................................................................................................... ..........................3 Obama Wins ...................................................................................................................... .............6 Link Uniqueness ......................................................................................................... ....................7 Link U- McCain not Green .................................................................................................... ...........8 Bush Tied to McCain ............................................................................................................ ...........9 AT: Voters Won’t Switch .................................................................................................... ............10 Oil key issue................................................................................................................. .................11 Energy Key to Election .................................................................................. ...............................12 AT: Economy Key to Election ........................................................................................................13 A2 ELECTION TOO FAR OFF................................................................................. ..........................14 Renewables Popular .............................................................................................. .......................16 Renewables Popular- Specific States ............................................................................................17 Action on Climate Popular- religious Right ................................................................................ ....19 DA Turns the Case .................................................................................................. ......................20 ***AFF ANSWERS***.......................................................................................................... ............21 McCain Wins ...................................................................................................................... ...........21 AT: Public wants change ............................................................................................. ..................22 Energy Policies Now ......................................................................................... ............................23 Link Non Unique ......................................................................................................... ..................24 Energy not Key to Election ................................................................................. ..........................25 Climate not important in Election .............................................................................................. ...26 Climate Action Unpopular ........................................................................................................... ..27 Renewables not popular .................................................................................................... ...........28 Ethanol link Turn....................................................................................................................... .....29 Ethanol Link Turn- Farm Lobbies ........................................................................................ ...........30 AT: DA Turns Case ................................................................................................................. ........31 -1-

Elections ENDI Ext- AT: Disad Turns the Case .................................................................................... ...................32 ***Impact Section***.......................................................................................................... ...........33 Withdrawal Key to Middle East .................................................................................. ...................33 Withdrawal bad- General ......................................................................................................... .....34 Withdrawal Bad- Middle East.................................................................................................. .......35 AT: Withdrawal Impact ............................................................................................................. .....36 Obama Clinton Stop Trade .......................................................................................................... ..37 Trade Good ..................................................................................................................... ..............39 Trade Bad ................................................................................................................ .....................42 CHINA BASHING ........................................................................................... ................................46 Textiles ................................................................................................................... ......................47 A2: Appreciation Bad – Chinese Econ.............................................................................. ..............49 Reval Bad – Chinese Economy......................................................................................................50 Pressure Bad – US-China Relations................................................................................... .............52 Democrats bad- India Deal ................................................................................................... ........54 India Deal Relations................................................................................... ...................................55 Solves Prolif........................................................................................................................... ........56 A2: Deal Bad – Pakistan............................................................................................................. ....58 Deal Bad- Prolif........................................................................................................................... ...59 Deal bad Pakistan ....................................................................................................................... ..61 A2: Deal Good – US-India............................................................................. .................................62

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1NC Obama is leading McCain slightly but democrats don’t have a lock on the election Times Colonist 6-3-08 http://www.canada.com/victoriatimescolonist/news/story.html?id=523d78b1-d973-4134-944beb9ddd923f4e

Obama's campaign maintains the candidate's recent setbacks have not seriously damaged him as a general election candidate. He continues to raise enormous amounts of money, and polls show him leading McCain in traditional Democratic states like Pennsylvania. But the 2008 election campaign no longer looks an easy victory for Democrats, despite lingering public anger at outgoing President George W. Bush, a faltering economy and an unpopular war in Iraq. The most recent Gallup tracking poll showed Obama and McCain tied at 46 per cent in a general election matchup.

If Bush can change the political climate with a popular policy like the plan it will pull away moderate voters from the Democrats and win the election for the Republicans

Jonah Goldberg editor for the National Review, September 4, 2007 [ USA Today, "Political exit strategy for Bush; Targeted investments might be the best way to provide dividends for the USA -- and the GOP." accessed lexis 4/29/08] While the stakes are higher than normal, Bush's predicament isn't that unusual. Lame-duck presidents often place all of their chips on foreign policy. According to many observers, Clinton worked feverishly at the end of his administration to win an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal in order to burnish his legacy. The problem for Bush is that at this point, there's not a whole lot he can do to improve things in Iraq, save to hold off the Democratic pull-out chorus long enough for the surge to succeed, which is hardly an assured outcome. At home, Bush's options are far more constrained. But again, Clinton might be the model. The Democratic Congress is -- astonishingly -- even more unpopular than President Bush. If Bush can pick some wellchosen fights with Congress, ideally over spending, he might at least bring back disheartened members of his own political base. Bush might also borrow from Clinton's post-1994 playbook of proposing a lot of small, very popular (and mostly insipid) programs and initiatives. Clinton had his school uniforms and Vchips. Surely the authors of compassionate conservatism could conjure similar treacle. Ideally, such proposals would unite a majority of Americans but divide moderate Democrats from the party's left-wing base (spare me the rending of clothes and gnashing of teeth over the cruelty of "wedge issues"). A goal: Just change the climate. For example, paying inner-city students to get good grades -- a proposal backed by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former U.S. House speaker Newt Gingrich alike -- might be a good idea with the added benefit of possibly annoying teacher's unions. Such ideas are hard to come up with, never mind sell, particularly given Bush's liabilities and the media climate generally. But the president needn't get such ideas passed, he need only get them discussed in order to recalibrate the political climate more in his favor. It wouldn't be easy, but he still has the biggest megaphone in the country. He also holds the veto pen. Bush seemed to have lost it in the Oval Office couch cushions for much of his presidency, but the Democratic takeover inspired him to find it. Given the Democrats' need to placate their own base in order to prove all that effort in '06 was worth it, Bush could have some fat opportunities to rally the majority of Americans, or at least his own base, to the GOP side. Renewable energy massively popular Adam Browning is a co-founder of the Vote Solar Initiative, a non-profit organization dedicated to bringing solar energy into the mainstream. 3-28-07 http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/3/28/17117/2960 There has been an absolute sea-change in the popularity of renewable energy in this country. We recently polled voter attitudes towards solar in Tex. and Fla. -- and the results were nearly 20 points higher than a similar poll in Calif. in 2005. Politicians need to better understand this. When they do, good things happen. To wit, Tampa Tribune's recent article "A Changing Political Climate": State Sen. Lee Constantine, R-Altamonte Springs, is pushing for more solar investment in Florida. He says a recent Mason-Dixon poll found that 90 percent of Floridians think the Florida Legislature should encourage investment in solar energy, and 78 percent say they would be willing to pay up to $1 a month on their utility bills to pay for it.

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MCCAIN WOULD KEEP THE TROOPS IN IRAQ – OBAMA WOULD NOT. William Arkin, Homeland Security writer, Washington Post, February 11, 2008 http://blog.washingtonpost.com/earlywarning/2008/02/on_iraq_mccain_and_obama_have_1.html ?nav=rss_blog Victory and withdrawal, the two ends of the Iraq spectrum, are now likely to be the choices presented to the American public in November by Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama. McCain constantly speaks of "victory" in Iraq and defeat of the terrorists, pledging -- key the applause -- that America will never surrender. Obama favors a timely and complete withdrawal from Iraq, a position that has come to symbolize the absolute over Hillary Clinton's middle ground position of transitioning and narrowing the mission.

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1NC withdrawing is key to us-european relations

Odom 2k4

(William E., The National Interest, Summer, LN)

U.S. unilateral initiation of the war in Iraq has come close to breaking the Atlantic Alliance. Gaining an Iraq of any form is not worth losing Europe. If the United States is to maintain some kind of regional stability in the Middle East and Southwest Asia, it cannot do it alone. American power depends on collaborative efforts with the informal members of its empire. In total, it produces roughly 70 In the global context: The

percent of the world's gross product, and its collective military budgets are 66 percent of the world's total. President Bush's unilateralism has denied us the military support of almost half of the 66 percent, not to mention the political and moral support from most of America's allies. Moreover, this and previous administrations have maintained an overly large maritime military force structure and dangerously small land force structure. Aircraft carriers and submarines do not help in Iraq. At present, the U.S. Army is so over-stretched that its tactical vulnerabilities are worrisome. In the course of the next six months, they will become strategic vulnerabilities unless fresh units in twice the present number are deployed there. Since that is not possible in the time available, we

To regain international support and to have the resources of our allies available for a comprehensive strategy toward the region, the United States will have to produce a highly positive outcome in Iraq or withdraw. Since we are reasonably sure that a positive outcome is impossible, and certainly decades away in the best event, withdrawal is the most sensible course today. must address this reality openly, not hidden by sleight-of-hand rotation schemes for troops to Iraq or pretty much anywhere else.

US-EUROPEAN RELATIONS CHECK GLOBAL WAR

Kissinger 2k4 (Henry, former secretary of state, March 19, pg. http://www.cfr.org/publication/6885/press_briefing_renewing_the_transatlantic_partnership.html)

What if the United States believes that Europe has become irrelevant and is just another player with which we have relations of convenience? Then we will be living in a world very similar to the pre-World War I world in which regions and countries pursue their own national interests in combinations of shifting relationships, adjusted from time to time. [This would be] a relationship that, at the beginning, may seem very tempting, but is very difficult to maintain over an extended period, and in the case of Europe, wound up in an armaments race and in a huge conflict.

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Obama Wins Obama beating McCain USA Today Blog 5-28-08http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/05/gallup-clinton.html The same process shows Obama leading McCain 49%-41% in the six swing states won by Obama during the nomination battle and coming away with 54 Electoral College votes if the election were today. (It takes 270 Electoral votes to become president.)

Democratic Candidate wins The Press Enterprise 5-30-08 And if the election were held today, either Clinton or Obama would beat presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John

McCain, of Arizona, by 17 percentage points, according to the poll produced for The Press-Enterprise and other California media subscribers. The growing support for Illinois Sen. Obama reflects national trends, Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo said Thursday.

Either democrat crushes McCain San Jose Mercury News 5-30-08 Hillary Clinton might have won California's Democratic primary in February, but the state's Democrats now prefer rival Barack Obama by a huge margin. And both Obama and Clinton would crush Republican John McCain if the November election were held

today. Those are the results of a Field Poll released today that boosts the hopes of Democratic operatives who want to avoid spending tens of millions of dollars to make sure the Golden State's 55 electoral votes end up in the Democratic column in November.

Obama beats McCain Deseret Morning News 5-25-08 Meanwhile, a poll done for the Los Angeles Times newspaper and KTLA television shows that less than four months after

losing the California primary to Clinton, Obama appears to be the stronger of the two Democrats in facing McCain in November. Obama would defeat McCain by seven points if the election were held today, the poll found, while Clinton would eke out only a three-point victory. McCain has insisted that he will compete to win California in the fall, but most analysts think the state is too reliably Democratic and too expensive for a Republican to mount a serious challenge there. California has gone to the Democratic candidate in each of the last four presidential elections.

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Link Uniqueness So far energy issues have remained off the radar E&E News PM 4-15-08 As the three remaining presidential candidates head into the home stretch of primary season, energy and environment issues have yet to make a splash in stump speeches and debates, despite the fact that each candidate has vowed to make climate and energy top priorities. During today's E&ETV Event Coverage, the candidates' energy and environment advisers give their positions on the expansion of coal and nuclear, implementation and funding of alternative energy, and climate policy. Panelists include Jason Grumet, environmental adviser for Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), Todd Stern, adviser to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (DN.Y.), and James Woolsey, environmental adviser to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

Environment not being discussed in the election The Salt Lake Tribune 2-1-08 Becoming a mother sharpened Shelley Marshall's thinking about clean air, water and land. Now, as she now helps her young daughter Ava grow strong, Marshall is determined to make sure the toddler's future is healthy. To Marshall, the big issues of our time - the economy, health care and the energy - all come back to smart environmental policies. She's made a point of following the presidential primaries this year, but she's not hearing enough about environmental issues like energy and climate change. "I don't think it's being discussed as much as it should be," said the Salt Lake City mother. "And the answers I have heard have been pretty vague." No, the environment has not been a hot topic in the presidential races up to this point. That might appear puzzling after a year in which the issue of global warming exploded into the public consciousness and gas-pump prices have made sensible energy policies a pocketbook issue for Americans of all political stripes.

The link is unique- no energy policies coming in the pipe now Global Power Report 1-10-08 With a new energy law on the books and a national election around the corner, Congress appears unlikely to pass major energy and environmental laws in 2008, even with oil prices flirting at or near $100/barrel, Washington analysts say. Still, actions that lawmakers take this year could help set the tone for breakthroughs once voters choose a new president and Congress in November, the analysts add. "The first week of 2008 brought a taste of $100[/barrel] oil and the Iowa caucuses, leaving little doubt that would-be presidents and returning legislators will keep petroleum prices and the need for 'energy security' at the fore-front of debate," Kevin Book, an analyst with the investment firm Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, said in a report. "Does this mean another energy bill is on its way? Not so fast," Book added. Recent history shows how difficult it is for Congress to pass

energy laws, even when there are supply interruptions and a single party controls Capitol Hill and the White House, Book said. "This year, the odds are even worse," he said. "Democrats command a narrow margin in Congress; a wideopen presidential race could ignite a partisan brawl as soon as mid-February, if clear front-runners emerge from early state primary elections and Democrats appear determined to continue 'pay-as-you-go' fiscal strictures, pitting Big Oil against clean and green power in a battle for subsidy dollars." Moreover, Book said, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which Congress passed and President Bush signed in December, "encapsulated virtually all areas of energy policy consensus among Washington's warring factions."

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Link U- McCain not Green McCain not getting mileage out of climate action now E&E News PM 5-12-08 Democratic presidential candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton swung back at Republican rival John McCain's global warming plans today, saying the presumptive GOP nominee hasn't lived up to his own claims as an environmental champion and wouldn't do enough to curb heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. "It is truly

breathtaking for John McCain to talk about combating climate change while voting against virtually every recent effort to actually invest in clean energy," Obama, an Illinois senator, said in a press release. Obama criticized McCain for giving a major climate change speech in Portland, Ore., today at a Danish wind company when McCain has on several occasions opposed legislation -- or skipped votes -- that would promote domestic expansion of the wind industry.

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Bush Tied to McCain Bush’s endorsement of McCain ties his policies to McCains support Washington Post, March 5, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/blog/2008/03/05/BL2008030501742.html?hpid=topnews So for McCain, today's embrace with Bush is the classic double-edged sword. On the one hand, there is something undeniably compelling about the symbolism of one Republican standard-bearer handing the torch to another, surrounded by the pomp and power of the White House. It will also help McCain with Bush's core supporters. But on the other hand, Bush is damaged goods, deeply unpopular not just with Democrats but also independents, and the walking embodiment of what Americans evidently are eager to put behind them. Michael D. Shear and Peter Slevin write in The Washington Post that today's endorsement is "intended to cement the senator as the political heir of his former rival." But Mark Silva blogs for Tribune that "the public embrace of a president whose public approval has hovered at an average of 33 percent for the past year in the Gallup Poll will readily be taken by his Democratic opponent as a symbol that a vote for McCain is a vote for a continuation of the Bush White House." BUSH’S ACTIONS ARE TIED TO MCCAIN ABC News, March 5 http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/Story?id=4392520&page=3 McCain's decision to visit the White House the day after securing the GOP nomination is a dicey one. He needs Bush's help with the party's conservative base, but any ties to Bush could alienate moderate Republicans and independent voters who are key to a possible McCain victory in November. Today, McCain invited the president to join him on the campaign trail "both from raising money and the much-needed finances for the campaign and addressing the challenging issues that face this country."

BUSH’S ENDORSEMENT TIES HIS PRESIDENCY TO MCCAIN Reuters, March 5, http://www.reuters.com/article/vcCandidateFeed2/idUSWAT00907320080305?pageNumber=3& virtualBrandChannel=10112 But the endorsement will also give Democrats ammunition to use against McCain, since Bush is unpopular among many Americans because of the Iraq war and the ailing U.S. economy. McCain, an Arizona senator who is 71 and would be the oldest person ever elected to a first U.S. presidential term, said he has "great admiration, respect and affection" for Bush and wants him to campaign for him as much as possible. "I'll be pleased to have him with me, both from raising money and the much-needed finances for the campaign and addressing the challenging issues that face this country," McCain said.

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AT: Voters Won’t Switch Large number of undecideds means the election is still up for grabs Charleston Gazette (West Virginia) 5-10-08 There are three candidates still in the running, but not one of them seems to be a clear winner. This is leading to an election that has proven to be very unpredictable so far. In opinion polls taken by CBS and Fox News, pitting Republican John McCain first against Democrat Hillary Clinton and then against Democrat Barack Obama, the percentage of the vote stayed almost evenly divided with all three coming out on top in at least one poll. However, more than 10 percent of those polled voted for neither candidate, declaring themselves

undecided. The American people are not sure who to believe or vote for in this election.

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Oil key issue Democrats are politicizing oil in election The Australian 5-7-08 HILLARY Clinton has continued to raise the populist rhetoric in a pitch to blue-collar votes, vowing on the eve of crucial Democrat primaries in two states to smash the OPEC ``cartel''. Senator Clinton and rival Barack Obama hop-scotched

around North Carolina and Indiana yesterday as one of the US's most epic presidential nomination fights inches closer to conclusion.

Voters love even symbolic attempts to fight gas prices NBC News Transcripts 5-5-08 And now to where this intersects with the presidential campaign, which today was just about all about the price of gas, on the eve of the two big Democratic primaries, North Carolina and Indiana. NBC's Andrea Mitchell with us tonight from Indianapolis. Andrea, good evening. ANDREA MITCHELL reporting: Good evening, Brian. As the voters go to the polls tomorrow, the candidates are hopscotching between Indiana and North Carolina. And you're right, they're making their closing arguments all about the price of gas. Barack Obama fueling up for a final day of campaigning: Senator BARACK OBAMA: I'm going to have some of these hash browns. I might have a biscuit. MITCHELL: While Hillary Clinton focuses on a different kind of fuel. Senator HILLARY CLINTON: I want the oil companies to pay the gas tax this summer out of their record profits instead of you paying it. Unidentified Man: Time for a change. Sen. OBAMA: Good... MITCHELL: A proposed gas tax holiday Obama calls a stunt. Sen. OBAMA: There is not a single person who--out there who's studied the oil markets who believes that this is actually going to solve the problem. MITCHELL: The battle over her proposed gas tax break, believed dead on arrival on Capitol Hill, but still the overriding pocketbook issue on the stump and in dueling ads unleased today. (Clip from Clinton campaign advertisement) (Clip from Obama campaign advertisement) MITCHELL: As French toast came off the griddle in Indianapolis today, voters were divided. Barack Obama says it's pandering to the voters. What's your thought on it? Ms. NANCY TOMS: I kind of vacillate on that. I think it is kind of silly, but on the other hand, it's symbolic, and that would be a place to start.

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Energy Key to Election Energy is a key election issue PR Newswire 2-28-08 With crude oil, gasoline, and home heating oil prices near all-time highs, energy security in the US is one of the most common themes among the presidential candidates. While Democratic and Republican candidates alike agree that energy security should be high on the next president's agenda, their plans for achieving that goal vary widely. "For the new president, perhaps the most important first step in developing a policy for energy security will be to establish the right process for progress -- one that is fully inclusive and transparent," said Marcela Donadio, Ernst & Young's oil and gas leader for the Americas. "Oil and gas companies should have a seat at the table alongside environmental leaders, renewable energy developers and energy efficiency experts." "There are some thought-provoking ideas being raised through this presidential election cycle," said Charles Swanson, energy advisor and leader of Ernst & Young's Houston office. "That's the beauty of this process; it really gets people thinking big. But ultimately, the vision must be grounded in pragmatism, with short-term programs that can be implemented right away along with well-thought-out strategic goals and plans for a new energy future."

Energy will be the major election issue The Australian 5-8-08 WITH Wall Street suddenly abuzz with talk of crude oil prices reaching $US200 a barrel and the three remaining presidential candidates apparently vying with one another to present the most politically opportunistic (and economically absurd) energy ``plan'', it is becoming increasingly clear that America's addiction to cheap oil is likely to be a major issue this November.

Energy issues dominating the presidential election Pittsburgh Post Gazette, November 25, 2007 Oil prices flirting with $100 a barrel, warnings of climate change and holiday road trips fueled by gas topping $3 a gallon are combining to give energy issues unprecedented prominence in the presidential campaign.

Energy issues will drive the election David G. Victor is a professor at Stanford Law School and directs the Freeman Spogli Institute's Program on Energy & Sustainable Development; he is also adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, March 3, 2008, The Energy Trap, Why the United States is doomed to be an energy outlaw, http://www.newsweek.com/id/118087/output/print

Democrats voting in Ohio and Texas may well decide the shape of the U.S. presidential election. Regardless of who they choose to run against Sen. John McCain, the all but certain Republican candidate, it is likely that energy issues will figure more prominently in the election than at any time in the last generation. High prices are sapping economic growth, the No. 1 concern across most of the country. Gasoline is now approaching $4 a gallon; natural gas and electricity are also more costly than a few years ago. Global warming has become a bipartisan worry, and solving that problem will require radical new energy technologies as well. All this is good news in the rest of the world, which is hoping that a new regime in Washington will put the United States on a more sustainable energy path.

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AT: Economy Key to Election Oil is closely connected to economics- makes it an election issue Chinadaily.com.cn 5-13-08 US President George W. Bush will likely receive little more than a smile and handshake when he asks Saudi Arabia to help lower oil prices during a visit to Riyadh this week to commemorate 75 years of a relationship that has developed fissures in the last decade. Oil prices keep climbing to record highs, threatening to push the US economy into recession, and economic issues are a top concern for American voters during this presidential election year when they will choose a successor to Bush.

People see oil connected to the economy Daily News (South Africa) 1-17-08 Oil prices extended losses yesterday, falling sharply as US President George W Bush pressured Opec to inc-rease crude output to help cut the cost of energy. Responding to Bush's remarks, Opec Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri said high oil prices were not caused by a shortage of oil supplies. Stressing that the body saw no shortage, he said Opec was prepared to hike production if it saw evidence supply and demand was unbalanced. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency kept its 2008 forecast for oil

demand unchanged despite growing expectations of a recession in the United States, which would be expected to curb demand. New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in February, fell $1.14 to $90.76 a barrel ahead of the latest weekly snapshot of US energy inventories. "It is looking more likely that the US is sliding into recession," Sucden oil analyst Nimit Khamar said. The US is facing recession fears at home as the collapse of the housing market combines with high oil prices to

make the economy a key issue in the campaign for the November presidential election. Oil prices hit record highs above $100 at the start of the year and despite a reverse since then, the cost of energy remains a major concern, as it helps drive up inflation.

Oil connected intimately to the economy The New York Times 1-16-08 President Bush on Tuesday urged Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC to consider the strain the high cost of oil was having on the American economy, addressing an issue that has begun to color the last year of his presidency and dominate the presidential election campaign. (continued) ''Presidents and kings have every right, every privilege, to comment or ask or say whatever they want,'' Mr. Naimi said in a news conference after Mr. Bush's remarks. ''The concern for the U.S. economy is valid,

but what affects the U.S. economy is more than the price of oil.'' Mr. Bush's remarks on oil, made as voters went to the polls in Michigan, underscored a growing worry inside the White House that the economy could sour in his final year in office.

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A2 ELECTION TOO FAR OFF 1. Fundraising – A) Early lead in the polls is key to it Adkins and Dowdle ’02, Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol. 32, Issue 2, p. 256-375 June Second, changes in viability as measured by differences in national polling results from the third quarter of the year prior to the election to the beginning of the primary and caucus season also impact pre-primary fundraising. Although measured differently, the results are generally consistent with previous research assessing the influence of the candidate viability on presidential nomination outcomes (Gurian and Haynes 1993; Guerrant and Gurian 1996; Damore 1997; Haynes, Gurian, and Nichols 1997). More specifically, the results of the combined model demonstrate that overall changes in viability significantly affect the outcome of the money primary. As expected, increases in candidate poll standings positively affect fundraising receipts. However, the results of the partisan models demonstrate that changes in viability significantly affect the fundraising of leading Democrats, but not that of Republicans, who coalesce behind their front-runner much sooner. Again, these findings confirm Newport's (1999) analysis of pre-primary polling data and are generally consistent with Mayer's (1996b) discovery that Democrats in general are much more divided than Republicans. Thus, for Democrats, the strategic choices made by campaign contributors in early months of the presidential campaign are linked to polling volatility created by changing assessments of viability in public opinion, the media, and party elites. B) Fundraising is vital to maintaining the Dems edge in the general election Rubin ’07 http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=21408 As all the presidential candidates proved this week, money matters. Even better than polls --which provoke endless arguments about methodology and bias -- campaign fundraising totals and debt, number of donors and spending figures can be objectively tallied. Cold hard cash provides a story line in an endless campaign and confirmation of pundits’ subjective hunches about how candidates are faring and where the race is headed. For Obama the sheer size of the haul and the number of donors is staggering. 258,000 donors for Obama confirm that the Democrats have an interesting dilemma. One candidate “wins” debates, leads polls, commands an impressive campaign machine but another has captured the excitement and hearts of the base (and perhaps expanded the base) and has not yet turned off half the voters. Just when pundits were ready to pronounce Hillary Clinton unbeatable, Obama and his legions of supporters beg to differ. Perhaps the accountants found something the pundits didn’t: proof that the Democratic Party is not ready for a coronation just yet and the “change the page” message of Obama is penetrating. If he uses his millions wisely, defines himself and develops credibly policy prescriptions the pundits will need a new storyline. It also should serve as a warning sign to the GOP as a whole. No candidate on the Republican side approaches either Obama or Clinton’s money total or remotely approaches the number of Obama donors. The Democrats are well funded, enthusiastic and internet savvy. Republicans should be concerned and focus relentless on the issues like the economy, immigration and national security which offer the opportunity to unify and expand their base of support. 2. Vital internal link won’t change --- Bush’s popularity ratings are likely to stay low – hurting the GOP in the general election Oxford Analytica, The Hill, 5-22-07 The president’s approval ratings have been unusually poor for almost two years. Since mid-2005, they have moved within a comparatively narrow 29-36 percent band in mainstream surveys. There are few parallels for such an abysmal rating during a second presidential term, when (with the obvious exception of former President Richard Nixon) the occupant of the White House tends to become more personally popular at the same time that he becomes less politically effective. Furthermore, even Bush’s personal

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pollsters seem to expect that his ratings will remain at this low ebb for the rest of the year and into 2008. If he cannot achieve at least a 45 percent approval rating by next year, then the president will remain a liability for his party’s electoral prospects.

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Renewables Popular Renewable energy massively popular Adam Browning is a co-founder of the Vote Solar Initiative, a non-profit organization dedicated to bringing solar energy into the mainstream. 3-28-07 http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/3/28/17117/2960 There has been an absolute sea-change in the popularity of renewable energy in this country. We recently polled voter attitudes towards solar in Tex. and Fla. -- and the results were nearly 20 points higher than a similar poll in Calif. in 2005. Politicians need to better understand this. When they do, good things happen. To wit, Tampa Tribune's recent article "A Changing Political Climate": State Sen. Lee Constantine, R-Altamonte Springs, is pushing for more solar investment in Florida. He says a recent Mason-Dixon poll found that 90 percent of Floridians think the Florida Legislature should encourage investment in solar energy, and 78 percent say they would be willing to pay up to $1 a month on their utility bills to pay for it.

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Renewables Popular- Specific States Popular in Arizona VSI no date http://www.votesolar.org/polls.html (vote solar initiative, compiles poll results from other sources) Arizona--87% of the voters think the state should choose renewable energy sources like solar and wind over more coal, and 78% would pay at least $5 a month to make that happen. Details here (pdf). Behavior Reseach Center says environment near top of issues worrying Arizonans (pdf).

Popular in Florida VSI no date http://www.votesolar.org/polls.html (vote solar initiative, compiles poll results from other sources) Florida--90% of Floridians think the Legislature should encourage investement in solar energy in the state, and 78%

would pay up to a dollar a month on their utility bill to make it happen. See the details here (pdf).

Popular in Texas VSI no date http://www.votesolar.org/polls.html (vote solar initiative, compiles poll results from other sources) Texas--84% of Texans think that the Texas Legislature should encourage investment in solar power in Texas. And 81% would pay up to a dollar a month to make it happen. Details here (pdf).

RPS popular in Ohio VSI no date http://www.votesolar.org/polls.html (vote solar initiative, compiles poll results from other sources) Ohio--New poll from Public Opinion Strategies (pdf), September 2007, says 80% of the state’s voters say they support

“setting a standard for renewable energy in Ohio, which would require utilities to obtain twenty percent of our electricity from renewable sources like wind and solar by the year 2025.” Also, Powepoint from the Ohio Department of Development, Office of Energy Efficiency here.

Action on global warming popular VSI no date http://www.votesolar.org/polls.html (vote solar initiative, compiles poll results from other sources) Global Warming--the Yale Center for Environmental Law an Policy did a survey (March 2007) on Americans' attitudes

towards global warming. 83% say it is a serious problem, up from 70% in 2004. Website with poll results here.

People support wind-polls prove Pollingreport .com May 2008 http://www.pollingreport.com/energy.htm "Would you be willing or not willing to pay higher taxes on gasoline and other fuels if the money was used for research into renewable sources like solar and wind energy?" Willing Not Willing % 4/20-24/07

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People overwhelmingly support renewables Pollingreport .com May 2008 http://www.pollingreport.com/energy.htm "Some people say using renewable energy sources, like solar and wind power, to generate electricity is a good idea because they are readily available and better for the environment. Other people say using renewable energy sources are a bad idea because they are

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too expensive and can be unreliable. What do you think -- is using renewable energy sources to generate electricity mostly a good idea or mostly a bad idea?"

Good

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%

%

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People overwhelmingly support corn ethanol Pollingreport .com May 2008 http://www.pollingreport.com/energy.htm "Some people say that using ethanol, which is manufactured from corn, is a good idea because it is an American-made substitute for foreign oil that causes less air pollution. Other people say ethanol is a bad idea because it drives up food prices and has less energy. What do you think -- is using ethanol mostly a good idea or mostly a bad idea?"

Good

Bad

Unsure

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%

%

70

23

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Action on Climate Popular- religious Right Religious right supports action to stop climate change Anthony Leiserowitz, Yale University, May 2008, Global Climate Change National Security Implications http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB862.pdf

Within the religious right, a large number of evangelical leaders have recently broken with their peers to argue that global warming is indeed happening, that humans are at least partly responsible, and that this is a moral issue that Christians are called to confront. These leaders justify this new position by arguing that in the book of Genesis, God commanded human beings to till and tend his garden, and that the environment is part of our stewardship responsibilities on the earth, to care for God’s creation. Thus global warming is a moral imperative. Secondly, many argue that action on global warming flows directly from their longstanding missions to help the poor and needy, such as famine and poverty relief around the world. To paraphrase, “How can Christians devoted to these acts of mercy in good conscience ignore a problem that is going to push millions of people into the same kind of circumstances that we are there to help them with?” Importantly, these are arguments that resonate within the religious right’s own strongly-held value system. Yet these specifically Christian arguments may not resonate with other audiences. There are, however, many roads to Damascus. Different people, starting from very different moral and ethical standpoints, can at times reach the same conclusions and work together in common action, albeit sometimes for different reasons.

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DA Turns the Case Obama turns the case China Dialogue 5-23-08 How will a change of president shape the politics that affect the global environment? Barack Obama, the leading candidate for the Democratic Party nomination, set out his plan in a speech in late 2007. chinadialogue republishes his address in full. Barack Obama, a senator from Illinois, edged closer this week to the Democratic Party's nomination for president of the United States in the November 2008 election. If Obama wins the primary round and secures his party's nomination at its convention in August, he will face the Republicans' presumptive nominee, John McCain, whose recent speech on climate change chinadialogue has published in full. So, what would an Obama presidency mean for the global environment? And how do his ideas differ from those of McCain? In a policy address delivered in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, in October 2007 -- shortly after president George W Bush hosted a Washington conference on energy security and climate change -- Obama set out his plan. It included a strong focus

on energy efficiency and the use of a "cap-and-trade" system. Obama also emphasised his commitment to investing in clean technology, saying that new technology from the United States can help countries like China to fight climate change.

ONLY OBAMA CAN GET PEOPLE INVOLVED TO ACHIEVE TRUE CLIMATE CHANGE LEGISLATION Paul Loeb, Social Movement author and Environmental Activist, Huffington Post, March 3 2008 http://news.yahoo.com/s/huffpost/20080303/cm_huffpost/089406 If I look at both Obama's record and his campaign, I see someone who understands the critical role of citizen movements and works to build them as a force capable of creating major change. That's what we've needed to address the major challenges of the past. It's what we'll need to address this ultimate crisis we've created through the combination of technological inventiveness and short-focus blindness. The Clintons may have spoken out against the Vietnam War when they were young, but they've been hedging their bets and distancing themselves from citizen movements ever since. We need a movement-building approach for global climate change -- and for all the other crises America's next president will inherit from Bush's disastrous reign.

OBAMA CAN RALLY MOVEMENTS TO GET WARMING LEGISLATION Paul Loeb, Social Movement author and Environmental Activist, Huffington Post, March 3 2008 http://news.yahoo.com/s/huffpost/20080303/cm_huffpost/089406 This will take independent efforts like the 1Sky Coalition, the nation-wide StepItUp rallies that preceded it, and the campus organizing that produced the 6,000-student PowerShift conference last November. Whoever wins, we'll need to mobilize more, not less, to see the changes we need. But on an issue this overwhelming and potentially terrifying, we'll need leaders who can help inspire people to take the leap of faith of acting whether or not they know their actions will succeed. Because as Jim Wallis of the religious social justice magazine Sojourners has said, "Hope is believing in spite of the evidence, and then watching the evidence change."

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McCain Wins Obama would lose to McCain Berkshire 6-3-08 http://www.berkshireeagle.com/ci_9462019 Looking at the more than 20 states with a margin of less than 10 percent between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry in 2004, Talty

said current polling shows McCain defeating Obama by six electoral college votes, compared with a 17-point win for Clinton. Clinton would win close contests in Missouri and Nevada that Obama would lose if the election were held today, according to recent polling.

Clinton contest damaged obama- will lose The Frontrunner 6-2-08 The Christian Science Monitor (6/2, Feldmann, 56K) reports under "compromise solutions adopted by the Democratic Party's Rules and Bylaws Committee on Saturday, both states will send delegates to the August convention in Denver after all, albeit with half votes each instead of full. But supporters of presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton are particularly angry that the Michigan deal gave her rival, Barack Obama, delegates they believe he did not earn." If "significant numbers of Clinton supporters remain angry and unwilling to vote for Senator Obama, the likely nominee, Obama's prospects for election in November could be damaged." If all goes according to plan for Obama, he will declare the nomination his after winning the final two primaries, Montana and South Dakota, on Tuesday. The remaining superdelegates, party leaders and elected officials who can back whomever they want, are under pressure to state their preferences as soon as the primaries are over, and Obama has been busy lining up their support in time for a victory announcement Tuesday."

McCain wins in only meaningful study Conspiracy Squirrels 5-29-08 John McCain, however, still does not appear organized to take advantage of Democratic disarray. His biggest problem may be failure to realize that the Republican coalition is not fully united behind him. The most recent defectors are lobbyists expelled from his campaign who are not happy about their treatment. We continue to hear complaints from evangelicals, economic conservatives, and other critics of McCain. The refrain continues from conservatives that maybe the country and the GOP need four years of Obama....While national polls garner attention, they have no direct bearing on choosing our next President. A state-bystate count of electoral votes is the key to analyzing the presidential race.For the first time this year, we run through all

50 states plus the District of Columbia in order to handicap the presidential race. Outlook: If the election were held today, we see a McCain victory by the narrowest of margins.The electoral map looks nearly identical to 2004, with Iowa and Colorado swinging into the Democratic camp. Beneath the surface, however, we see Michigan and Pennsylvania becoming more competitive for Republicans.The election will hinge on two regions: Lake Erie and the Mountain West. An Obama win in New Mexico or Nevada would be enough to tip the scales, but a McCain win in Pennsylvania could put the race out of reach. In the end, as always, it comes down to Ohio, where Obama's weakness among rural whites could send McCain to the White House. McCain 270, Obama 268.It's a long time until election day, and the Democrats haven't even settled on a candidate yet. I'd note that the Electoral College calculations are a best-case scenario for the Democrats, anticipating no mass defections of their base. I'm not sure that's going to be the case. If Hillary pulls a fast one, she'll lose most of the black vote. If Obama wins, he'll lose a good part of the traditional white (especially female) Democratic vote. In either case, the possibility of a big win for McCain looms large - unless the Democratic Party does a lot of healing between now and election day. On the other side, McCain's still having problems with conservatives, for good reason. But I think Novak's dreaming if he thinks that most conservatives will sit out this election, even though that does have some appeal. Novak's been against the war since the beginning and hates Bush, and there's nothing that he'd like better than to see Bush saddled with a huge loss in the Middle East that would hurt the US and Israel. But that's not the view of most conservatives, at least other than the "paleo" variety. The war, and McCain's vow to continue winning it, might be the thing that causes most other brands of conservative to hold their noses and vote Republican for President, even if he's not an ideal choice. Unlike Novak, they'd put love of country over love of winning an argument. Newstex ID: SQUI-0001-25627714

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AT: Public wants change GOP co-opting ‘change’ message The Washington Times 5-12-08 House Republican leaders, facing a potentially disastrous election this fall, will introduce a campaign message today in which they promise voters "the change you deserve" while arguing that Democrats in Congress have dropped the ball, according to a leadership strategy memo to rank-and-file members. "It starts with this: Washington is broken, the American people want it fixed, and Democrats in Washington have proven unable or unwilling to get the job done. Republicans will," says the memorandum, a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Times.

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Energy Policies Now Non Unique- CSA Gannett News Service 5-20-08 Landmark legislation to reduce global warming is set to spark an intense Senate debate in early June. While it is unlikely to become law this year, the Climate Security Act is seen by both supporters and opponents as evidence of how far Congress has moved on the issue and how quickly a bill is likely to pass after a new president moves into the White House in January and a new Congress takes office.

Non unique- congress will expand incentives now Global Power Report 1-10-08 Still, some analysts say Congress likely will at least enact bills extending production tax credits for renewable energy production, which are scheduled to expire at the end of 2008, and the Senate and the House may give more attention to climate change legislation, although probably will not pass such bills.

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Link Non Unique McCain trying to appear more green now Carbon Control News 5-19-08 In an attempt to polish his environmentalist credentials with an eye toward the November election, presumptive Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (AZ) detailed his new plan to mitigate the effects of global warming at a campaign stop May 12, announcing a proposal to establish a carbon cap-and-trade program with a goal of cutting emissions to 60 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. But while he called for Congress "to send the special interests on their way -- without their favors and subsides," his proposal itself includes funding for the coal and nuclear industries in the form of research funding for carbon capture and sequestration technology and the transportation and storage of radioactive waste.

McCain already broken ranks on climate change The Australian 5-14-08 Republican White House candidate John McCain yesterday veered sharply away from President George W. Bush on climate change, saying he would not ``shirk'' from the need for US global leadership. The Arizona senator proposed a mandatory cap-and-trade system to cut greenhouse gas emissions, and rebuked Mr Bush for his scepticism on anti-climate change efforts. The initiative signalled that Senator McCain planned to challenge Democrat Barack Obama for

independent voters, should he face him in November's presidential election, on an issue of rising importance in US politics. ``I will not shirk the mantle of leadership that the United States bears,'' Senator McCain said in a speech at a wind-power plant in the western state of Oregon. ``I will not permit eight long years to pass without serious action on serious challenges,'' he said, in a clear rebuke to the Bush administration. His comments coincided yesterday with a new report from the US Department of Energy, which found wind energy could provide 20 per cent of the country's electricity by 2030, the same share of electricity now generated by nuclear power plants. Senator McCain pledged to play a lead role in negotiations for a new agreement on

greenhouse gas reductions to follow the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012 and which the US refused to ratify. ``I will not accept the same dead-end of failed diplomacy that claimed Kyoto,'' he said. ``The US will lead ... with a different approach -- an approach that speaks to the interests and obligations of every nation.'' Mr Bush objected to Kyoto because it did not apply binding greenhouse gas targets on fast-growing China and India.

McCain will be tough on climate change Los Angeles Times 5-13-08 Distancing himself from President Bush, John McCain pledged a new era of environmental stewardship Monday as he outlined his plan to address global warming, a cause he has embraced since activists hounded him during his 2000 run for president. At a wind turbine manufacturer here, McCain called for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 60% by mid-century and pledged to take the lead in pressing rising economic powers India and China to cut emissions. "I will not shirk the mantle of leadership that the United States bears," McCain said, alluding to Bush, who withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol, the international agreement to curtail emissions. "I will not permit eight long years to pass without serious action on serious challenges."

McCain is already using climate to woo voters Orlando Sentinel (Florida) 5-13-08 Wooing independent voters, Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain called Monday for reductions in carbon emissions and criticized the Bush administration for failing to lead the fight against climate change. "We have many advantages in the fight against global warming, but time is not one of them. . . . We stand warned by serious and credible scientists across the world that time is short and the dangers are great," McCain said in a speech delivered at a wind-energy facility in Portland, Ore. "The most relevant question is whether our own government is equal to the challenge." McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, proposed a "cap-and-trade" system to reduce greenhouse gases and allow the sale of rights to excess emissions by firms that reduce their own emissions. He also said he'd support auctioning off permits for excessive emissions, using the revenue to "help build the infrastructure of the post-carbon economy." Such a system would "change the dynamic of our energy economy" by giving companies incentives to invest in alternative energy sources such as wind, solar, nuclear, clean-coal, biomass and biofuels, McCain said, providing the United States with an energy supply "that is safe, secure, diverse and domestic." McCain set a goal of returning to 2005 levels of carbon emissions by 2012, and to 1990 levels by 2020, until the United States achieves at least a 60 percent reduction below 1990 levels by 2050. McCain's proposal falls short of that of his Democratic rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. They both called for reducing emissions by 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050, in line with what's recommended by most scientists, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

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Energy not Key to Election Energy not an issue Chicago Sun Times 11-16-07 Since oil prices have flirted with the $100-per-barrel price milestone, you'd think that energy policy would be an urgent political issue in the presidential campaigns. Yet, it is easily eclipsed by the Iraq war, health care, Social Security and whether Hillary Clinton plants questions at her campaign stops. Candidates mention gas prices in their stump speeches, and several have offered detailed energy proposals, but other concerns appear more pressing to voters.

Election not about energy Greenwire 5-20-08 At the same conference yesterday, the nation's top electricity regulator and a prominent utility official both predicted that U.S. climate change legislation will not be a reality anytime soon. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chairman Joseph Kelliher said the presidential election is not shaping up as a referendum on climate change. If that remains the case, he said, the new president may steer clear of pushing domestic legislation right out of the gate, especially if his or her mandate is about the economy and other issues. A quick focus on domestic climate change legislation could be seen as a distraction, he said. Kelliher predicted a new president may focus climate change efforts on negotiating a new post-Kyoto agreement and then turn later toward a U.S. climate bill. "It is possible a new president might decide, 'My first focus in this area will be to re-engage the international community in pursuit of a new treaty, and I just will not propose domestic legislation, I will pursue an international approach,'" he said. The Senate plans to debate the Lieberman-Warner climate bill, which seeks a 70 percent emissions cut by the middle of the century, in early June. But Jeff Sterba, chief executive of PNM Resources, called final domestic legislation this year unlikely. He said this view is shared by many other CEOs participating in the U.S. Climate Action Partnership, a coalition of businesses and environmental groups that is calling for a mandatory cap on U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. "I would say that most of us feel that the likelihood of anything happening this year is pretty remote, and I would have to say that is unfortunate," said Sterba. "We need to have this happen sooner rather than later." He predicted that a domestic plan is more likely to be completed about a year into the new administration, in perhaps late 2009 or early 2010. Sterba is also chairman of the Edison Electric Institute, a trade group for investor-owned utilities.

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Climate not important in Election Climate won’t be an election issue Financial Times, December 24, 2007 The US administration's position on climate change was in the spotlight last weekend as its delegation was booed in the closing hours of the marathon United Nations meeting in Bali. Nevertheless, the issue is unlikely to be high on the presidential election agenda. Michael Bloomberg, mayor of New York, said in Bali: "It won't have much effect and I'm probably overstating it. It won't be (on the agenda) at the next election but it will be on the political agenda as we go forward. Every other place I've been in the last two years is talking about it in a more advanced way. It's not really discussed by the presidential candidates."

Climate an irrelevant election issue AFP, March 1, 2008 Former US vice president and renowned climate change fighter Al Gore said Saturday that the global warming crisis is getting short shrift in this year's presidential race. Gore used the stage at a prestigious Technology, Entertainment and Design conference in Monterey, California, to call for activism to push climate change to the top of the candidates' political agendas.

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Climate Action Unpopular The public does not support government action on climate change Financial Times, December 24, 2007 However, four in 10 Americans think that tackling greenhouse gas emissions will damage the economy. Most also tend to see it as an issue that can be tackled by businesses, rather than consumers: 77 per cent were in favour of limiting the amount of greenhouse gas produced by companies but fewer than half wanted to raise taxes to cut consumption of fossil fuels, while three-quarters of people surveyed said less wealthy countries should limit their greenhouse gas output.

Passing a climate bill will alienate voters Dow Jones International News, 1-22-08 "It might send mixed messages," says API's Hayden. "On the one hand you're trying to stimulate the economy, but on the other, you're introducing a bill that would add cost to the new economy." The EIA's report on the Lieberman-Warner bill, which should include a price tag for the bill, may weigh on voters' minds as they examine presidential candidates and

senators undecided on their support of Boxer's climate change bill.

Public doesn’t care about climate change Australian Broadcasting Corporation Transcripts, March 10,2008 CATHY ZOI, CEO, ALLIANCE FOR CLIMATE PROTECTION,We have a very high level of awareness in the United States now, largely because of people like Al Gore and Arnold Schwarzenegger. That awareness, though, hasn't translated into it being a voting priority issue for Americans. Recent polling over the last month out of 22 public policy issues that Americans were asked about, global warming, climate change came in 21st, nearly at the bottom.

Public doesn’t think action on climate should be a priority Carolyn Pumphrey, Triangle Institute for Security Studies, May 2008, Global Climate Change National Security Implications http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB862.pdf If the polls can be trusted, the American public is gradually beginning to believe that climate change is not simply the figment of imagination of overexcited environmentalists. A 2006 Pew study found that about 41 percent of Americans think

that global warming is a very serious threat. However, they rank it well below other issues as a national priority, and they are not willing to dip into their pockets to find a remedy.

Relative to other issues, global warming action is a low priority for Americans Anthony Leiserowitz, Yale University, May 2008, Global Climate Change National Security Implications http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB862.pdf In 2004, in another nationally representative survey, I asked Americans which issues they thought should be the top priority for Congress and the President. I found—and this is consistent with many other surveys—that global warming was a relatively low priority, just as the environment as a broader issue is almost always at the bottom of these kinds of priority rankings. Global warming was well below terrorism, the economy, healthcare, education, the budget deficit, etc. Today we would see the Iraq War, of course, as a leading national priority as well.

Americans do not think global warming is a pressing issue Anthony Leiserowitz, Yale University, May 2008, Global Climate Change National Security Implications http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB862.pdf

They believe that global warming is a greater threat to nonhuman nature than to human beings. They believe that water shortages, increased disease rates, and lower living standards, are only moderately likely. Importantly, they believe that each of these impacts is more likely to occur globally than at the local level. Americans tend to think of climate change as a distant problem, something that is going to affect other people far away—small island countries, poor people in the tropics, etc.— not Americans—and distant in time—not for another 50 to 100 years, if ever. Thus it is not a particularly salient issue to most people.

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Renewables not popular Polls are BS- results show people are unwilling to pay more for renewables Taylor, director of natural resource studies, and Van Doren, editor of Regulation magazine, 2002 (Jerry and Peter, Evaluating the Case for Renewable Energy, Policy Analysis No. 422, 1/10) http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa422.pdf While renewable energy is more expensive than conventionally generated energy, public opinion polls continue to suggest that consumers are willing to pay higher energy costs if doing so will improve environmental quality.25 Accordingly, a number of independent power marketers in seven states have pack-aged "green power" electricity plans (made up almost entirely of windfired electricity) and marketed those plans to ratepayers in states that give consumers the right to choose their power suppliers.26 Eighty utilities in 28 states also offer special packages of renewable energy to ratepayers at a premium.27 "Green power” costs from 0.4 cents to 20 cents per kWh more than conventional power in these plans, with a median premium of 25 cents per kWh.28 Because of higher costs, no more than 5 percent of the retail customers in any state have signed up for

such independently marketed programs, and participation in utility-sponsored programs is generally around 1 percent or less29 clearly, there is a difference between what people tell pollsters about their "willingness to pay" for environmental quality and their actual willingness to pay in the marketplace. While consumer preferences may change, even advocates of renewable energy concede that, until renewable-fired electricity costs become comparable to those of conventional energy, green marketing programs are unlikely to attract many customers.30

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Ethanol link Turn Ethanol key to pander to Midwestern voters Technology Review (Cambridge, Mass.) 1-1-08 When the New York Mercantile Exchange closed the day before Thanksgiving, a barrel of crude oil cost over $97, roughly matching the inflation-adjusted record high set in 1980.

As the baleful effects of soaring oil prices ripple through the economy, the quest for an oil substitute becomes political, especially when presidential candidates stumping in Iowa before the caucuses have to pledge to preserve or expand subsidies to the corn-based U.S. ethanol industry. It is a time-honored campaign strategy: if energy prices are scaring the electorate, promise to develop alternative fuels. In the summer of 1979, President Jimmy Carter promised that with his energy plan,the United States would "never use more foreign oil than we did in 1977." A year later, he signed the Biomass Energy and Alcohol Fuels Act into law, allocating $600 million to the production of fuels from agricultural crops, agricultural wastes and residues, wood and wood wastes and residues, animal wastes, municipal wastes, and aquatic plants. Much of the money was devoted to research on cellulosic ethanol, currently the most promising biofuel in development (see "The Price ofBiofu-els," p. 4.2).

Agricultural lobbies protect corn ethanol subsidies Fred Krupp, Environmental Defense Fund, 2008, Earth: The Sequel The Race to Reinvent Energy and Stop Global Warming, p. 11 Though America's representatives have been aware of global warming since 1988, when Senator Al Gore held the first congressional hearings on the data then beginning to emerge, only in recent months has the U.S. Congress displayed real interest in addressing climate change. Some of the legislative proposals are hollow grandstanding; others would ensure meaningful action. There are many bad ways of moving forward from here, including continuing to give taxpayers' money to the

businesses with the best lobbyists. The huge federal subsidies for corn ethanol, for instance, are chiefly testament to the power of the agribusiness giant Archer Daniels Midland and other agricultural interests.

Political interests protect corn ethanol Fred Krupp, Environmental Defense Fund, 2008, Earth: The Sequel The Race to Reinvent Energy and Stop Global Warming, p. 77 Perversely, the current state of affairs not only- fails to reward landowners for sequestering carbon but also subsidizes

"solutioi4s" that create more problems than they solve. Corn-based ethanol has proved particularly problematic on this count. For political reasons, it has captured the lion's share of federal subsidies in the United States and comprises more than 90 percent of the nation's biofuels production. But it has distinct drawbacks. It puts two vital human needs —energy and food—in competition with each other. And it is a relatively poor energy producer. To fill one 25-gallon tank with corn ethanol requires enough grain to feed one person for an entire year.

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Ethanol Link Turn- Farm Lobbies Farm lobbies block ethanol subsidy reductions Irwin M. Stelzer is a contributing editor to THE WEEKLY STANDARD, director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute, Weekly Standard, May 26, 2008, http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/114gmbqx.asp And the farm and ethanol lobbies are prepared to crush the groups calling for an end to the food-for-fuel mandate that requires motorists to use nine billion gallons of ethanol (auto fuel made from corn) this year.

Farm lobbies more powerful than those attempting to cut ethanol subsidies Irwin M. Stelzer is a contributing editor to THE WEEKLY STANDARD, director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute, Weekly Standard, May 26, 2008, http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/114gmbqx.asp So what are the right questions? First, have any of the programs now in place proved counterproductive? Yes, several have

costs that exceed their benefits. Best example: the attempt to grow our way out of the energy problem. Admit that we have erred, and wind down the subsidies that are denuding forests and contributing to food shortages without significantly adding to fuel supplies. That's what a coalition of environmentalists, livestock producers, and consumer groups last week called on Congress to do. They are unlikely to overcome the powerful farmer-ethanol lobby.

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AT: DA Turns Case Doesn’t turn the case- prez irrelevant to climate policy Xinhua General News Service 1-31-08 This year's U.S. presidential election is unlikey to have a great impact on the consistency of the country's climate policy, Andy Karsner, U.S. assistant secretary of energy, told Xinhua Wednesday. Speaking at a press briefing on the sidelines of the ongoing major economies meeting on energy security and climate change held here Jan. 30-31, he said that the groundwork of U.S. climate policy is actually laid down by mid-level officials who are bipartisan. "We are building a continuity in the civil service," he said, referring to the fact that although there will be a new administration next year, those career civil service officials will be still making policies by then. Karsner also argued that whoever becomes the new president, whether Republican or Democrat, he or she must make climate policy decisions based on broad bipartisan support. He noted that the energy bill President George W. Bush signed last year has already demonstrated that kind of bipartisan consensus.

On the prospect that a new president will probably not resist the mandatory pollution reduction targets like Bush, Karsner argued that may not be the case. He said the United States has its own understanding of the issue. If it is

mandatory, Karsner said, it shall be a law which will need bipartisan support before the president's signing. Also, the U.S. government has some mandatory regulation in place in other areas, including the energy effi-ciency standard. However, in fact, most major presidential candidates are actually embracing for the idea of mandatory cuts in greenhouse gas emission. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, the two frontrunners in the race for the Democratic presidential nomi-nation, have all pledged to cut U.S. emissions by 80 percent from 1990 levels by the year 2050, and both of them accept that this can only be achieved by legal caps on emissions. The leading Republican candidate, John McCain, makes the same promises, except that he is only aiming for a 65percent cut by 2050.

Case o/w disads-energy related to every impact-president key Oil & Gas Journal December 24, 2007 The winner of the 2008 presidential election will need to take bold steps to address energy and climate change problems despite the absence of substantive discussions from the current campaigns, said US Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.) on Dec. 18. "I would state unequivocally that energy security and the economic and environmental issues closely associated with it should be the most important topics of the 2008 presidential election," said Lugar, the Foreign Relations Committee's ranking minority member, in a speech at the Brookings Institution. He said that three factors led him to this conclusion: Energy is the issue with the widest gulf between what is re-quired to make the nation secure and what is likely to be achieved under existing programs and congressional proposals. Transformational energy policies probably will be needed to achieve US social and economic aspirations. And energy exacerbates almost every foreign policy issue. "Only the president has the visibility to elevate a cause

to national status, and only the president can leverage the buying power, regulatory authority, and legislative leadership of an administration behind solving a problem that is highly conducive to political procrastination and partisanship," Lugar said.

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Ext- AT: Disad Turns the Case Any new prez will boost alternatives- da doesn’t turn the case Citywire 5-20-08 The coming US presidential election will ensure that the new energy sector is a good bet this year, according to investment management firm BlackRock. Robin Batchelor and Sandy Christie, managers of BlackRock's New Energy Investment trust, said new energy investments were set to win whatever the outcome of November's elections. 'This week, John McCain set out ambitious carbon reduction targets for the US were he to be elected, and with the two Democratic candidates also proposing to move renewable

energy up a gear in the US, the presidential election makes the new energy sector a very exciting investment proposition in 2008,' said Batchelor. He added that $120 barrels of oil had shifted the economics of the energy industry. 'Surging traditional energy prices such as oil, gas and coal have focused governments' attention on energy security and have also improved the economics of renewable alternatives,' he said. Furthermore, governments were responding to the findings of the Stern Review, which concluded that the cost of acting on climate change was less than the cost of not acting on it. 'More expensive technologies such as solar power are also proving successful as governments enact solar subsidy schemes to pave the way towards costcompetitiveness in the future,' he said. He added that wind power was the favoured technology in the BlackRock New Energy Investment trust, making up about 40% of the portfolio. Wind farms accounted for the largest share of new power plants built in both the US and EU last year, while the EU's renewable energy targets are based on wind power, said Batchelor. According to theAssociation of Investment Companies, theenvironmental investment company sector is currently trading at an average premium of +3%, compared to an overall industry average discount of 9.2%. The asssociation said the figures were a testament to how far the sector had come and how appetite towards alternative energy investment had increased. Ian Simm, chief executive of Impax Asset Management, said it was a rapidly developing area of the global economy with 'spectacular growth prospects'. 'Environmental investment is the most compelling secular growth story of the 21st century and has moved firmly into the mainstream over the past few years.'

Climate change policies will change with any prez- no case turn International Oil Daily 4-24-08 As Hillary Clinton kept her White House hopes alive Tuesday with a convincing win in Pennsylvania over her Democratic rival, Barack Obama , the race for the US presidency is still wide open. But one thing is already clear: Whoever wins the elections on Nov. 4 -Obama , Clinton or presumptive Republican nominee John McCain -- will steer the energy policy of the world's largest oil consumer in a very different direction from George W. Bush. The next US president will support a cap-and-trade program to cut greenhouse gas emissions and reject the oil industry's push for greater access to drilling offshore and in Alaska . He or she will also attempt to use efficiency measures and promote alternative fuel technology to move the economy decisively away from its dependence on oil. Environmentalists say all three candidates are committed to fighting climate change,

noting their willingness to join global pacts with mandatory caps on greenhouse gas emissions -- something the Bush administration adamantly opposes. Most observers expect some form of climate legislation to become law in the US in the next two years. Finding major differences between the three candidates' energy policies is more difficult than identifying common ground. This can be largely attributed to McCain's maverick positions and willingness to break with his party and president on energy policy.

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Withdrawal Key to Middle East () withdrawing is key to peacekeeping forces that stabilize iraq

The Nation 9/6/07 (pg. http://www.thenation.com/doc/20070924/editors) a commitment to a complete US withdrawal would open the way for international mediation and peacekeeping efforts, under the auspices of the United Nations, the Arab League or the Organization of the Islamic Conference. Indeed, it may be the only way to develop a regional concert of powers that can work with Iraqis to stabilize the country and control the conflict. Only by removing US forces and ending all claims to permanent bases can Washington increase the possibility that other countries will assist Iraq. The best way to prevent More important,

regional destabilization is to refocus our regional efforts and help Iraq and its neighbors cope with the humanitarian crisis we helped create. We can begin by helping to organize assistance for Syria, Jordan and Lebanon to resettle their Iraqi refugees. We can press Gulf countries like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia not to buy US weapons and host US troops but to open their doors to their Iraqi neighbors. And we can talk with Syria and Iran about our common interest in an Al Qaeda-free region instead of threatening to overthrow their governments.

() a new round of iraqi instability leads to world war 3

Corsi 2k7

(Jerome, January 8, pg. http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53669)

If a broader war breaks out in Iraq, Olmert will certainly face pressure to send the Israel military into the Gaza after Hamas and into Lebanon after Hezbollah. If that happens, it will only be a matter of time before Israel and the U.S. have no choice but to invade Syria. The Iraq war could quickly spin into a regional war, with Israel waiting on the sidelines ready to launch an air and missile strike on Iran that could include tactical nuclear weapons. With Russia ready to deliver the $1 billion TOR M-1 surface-to-air missile defense system to Iran, military leaders are unwilling to wait too long to attack Iran. Now that Russia and China have invited Iran to join their Shanghai Cooperation Pact, will Russia and China sit by idly should the U.S. look like we are winning a wider regional war in the Middle East? If we get more deeply involved in Iraq, China may have their moment to go after Taiwan once and for all. A broader regional war could easily lead into a third world war, much as World Wars I and II began.

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Withdrawal bad- General () withdrawing from iraq leads to extinction Yaphe 2K6

(Judith S., distinguished research fellow @ the Institute for National Strategic Studies @ the National Defense U, was also a political analyst @ the CIA in Mid East Affairs for more than 20 years, August 6, “Iraq War is Now About Survival- for all”, pg. http://159.54.226.83/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060806/OPINION/60801019/1049) American pundits and politicians have sketched out simple exit strategies: partition Iraq into a Sunni-Shiite-Kurd confederation and withdraw our troops; let the Iraqis experience their civil war without us; send in more troops to ferret out terrorists and win the battle for Baghdad. The problem with these strategies is the same: They focus on our needs, our politics, our standards of democracy, our casualties, our potential loss of regional influence and our dependence on oil. But the struggle is no longer just about achieving U.S. goals; it’s all about Iraq, and it is all about survival. Latest estimates indicate that 50 Iraqi civilians are killed for every U.S. casualty. Still, I believe that it is in the U.S. interest to see Iraq survive as a united country or we will face chronic instability and Iraq-based terrorists coming to our shores. The truth is, we have few options: — Withdrawal: Pundits and politicians see chaos and want out. I respect those questioning American unilateralist pre-emption strategies. But I worry about the consequences for U.S. interests if we abandon an Iraq we helped create and friends who would be set up for failure in a neighborhood we gas guzzlers love. A bad option. — Send in more troops to “win the war”: We need to define what winning means and assess the probable costs. Army Gen. John Abizaid, the senior U.S. commander in the Middle East, warned last week that more troops are needed if the battle for Baghdad — and thereby Iraq — is to be won. President Bush promised Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in their meeting Tuesday that U.S. troops would be redeployed from other parts of Iraq, but it is not clear that additional forces won’t be needed as well. How long will we be needed in Iraq? No one can say. But it seems to me we still have responsibility for helping Iraq survive what we set in motion three years ago. Surely, we can maintain our security presence, prepare military and police forces to take over security duties, provide training and protection, and help fragile political institutions take root. Sending more troops would be a politically unpopular move, but if U.S. commanders need them to maintain the pressure on terrorists and provide more security, they should have them. — Partition Iraq: This would almost certainly spawn civil war. Iraq’s Kurdish, Sunni Arab and Shiite communities are not monoliths; each has its secularists and Islamists, rich and poor, oligarchs and peasants. None will be satisfied with a “Sunnistan-Kurdistan-Shiastan” divide. Some say Iraq is already a failed state or was never meant to be a state at all. Others see Lebanon as a warning about what could happen in Iraq. Consider Lebanon — unable to control extremist forces, plagued by a long history of civil unrest and an easy target for intervention by stronger neighbors who play on inbred political weaknesses. Is this a vision of Iraq? The ingredients are there, including stronger neighbors meddling, a deepening social chasm and divided communal loyalties encouraged by foreign occupiers and warlords. Partition is playing with fire. Washing our hands of Iraq may sound appealing, but the truth is, we will care very much if extremists enriched by Iraq’s wealth have a place to prepare for their next terrorist campaign. Will it be New York or Washington or Los Angeles? In the 1980s, Iraqi Shiites cooperated with Lebanese Hezbollah’s No. 1 terrorist, Imad Mughniyah, in a series of bombings, hijackings and assassination attempts in the Persian Gulf. Do we want a return to these good old days? I think not. Staying the course in Iraq will not solve all of Iraq’s problems, and it will, sadly, mean more casualties in the short term. But withdrawal will not end the violence, ensure that Iraqis live happily ever after in their enclaves or end anti-American terrorism. We will still be targets, as will pro-American friends and U.S. interests in the region. The war and occupation have wedded American and Iraqi national interests. Iraq’s fate will affect our own. Leaving the Iraqis to civil war will only condemn them, the region and probably the United States to more wars to come.

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Withdrawal Bad- Middle East () pullout causes iraqi army dissolution- leads to instability

Carafano and Phillips 2k7 (James Jay, and James, James Jay Carafano, Ph.D., is Assistant Director of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies and Senior Research Fellow for National Security and Homeland Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, and James Phillips is Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Allison Center, at The Heritage Foundation. July 17, pg. http://www.heritage.org/Research/MiddleEast/wm1558.cfm)

A sudden U.S. withdrawal would increase the likelihood of a full-fledged civil war and the disintegration of the Iraqi army into factions. The defection of soldiers (along with their heavy equipment) to various militias would bolster the militias' firepower and capacity to seize and hold terrain. The result would be a bloody and protracted civil war, similar to the conflict in Bosnia following the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s.

() a new round of iraqi instability leads to world war 3

Corsi 2k7

(Jerome, January 8, pg. http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53669)

If a broader war breaks out in Iraq, Olmert will certainly face pressure to send the Israel military into the Gaza after Hamas and into Lebanon after Hezbollah. If that happens, it will only be a matter of time before Israel and the U.S. have no choice but to invade Syria. The Iraq war could quickly spin into a regional war, with Israel waiting on the sidelines ready to launch an air and missile strike on Iran that could include tactical nuclear weapons. With Russia ready to deliver the $1 billion TOR M-1 surface-to-air missile defense system to Iran, military leaders are unwilling to wait too long to attack Iran. Now that Russia and China have invited Iran to join their Shanghai Cooperation Pact, will Russia and China sit by idly should the U.S. look like we are winning a wider regional war in the Middle East? If we get more deeply involved in Iraq, China may have their moment to go after Taiwan once and for all. A broader regional war could easily lead into a third world war, much as World Wars I and II began.

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AT: Withdrawal Impact Democrats won’t actually insta- withdrawal David Ignatius Daily Star 3-13-08 http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=5&article_id=89841 Democrats have been yelping that this agreement is dangerous because it could bind the next administration to a continuation of Bush's policies. But that view is shortsighted. Even by Obama's and Clinton's most optimistic calculations, it will take at

least a year to withdraw most US combat troops - and both Democrats have wisely talked about the likely need for a "residual force" in Iraq to hunt down Al-Qaeda terrorists. But without an agreement like what Bush is trying to negotiate, US forces could have no legal authority to operate - or even protect themselves effectively during a withdrawal.

Election will have no affect on Iraq policy Australian 3-18-08 Even as approval ratings for Bush continue to languish at historic lows, it is not at all clear that future US policy is going to deviate radically from the goals he has laid down. Neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton is likely, despite the rhetoric, to effect an early departure of US troops and the relapse of Iraqi politics into tyrannical stability. And John McCain, the near-certain Republican nominee, is a fervent supporter of neoconservative objectives in foreign policy. He was a prime mover behind the Iraq surge.

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Obama Clinton Stop Trade Clinton/Obama will collapse trade with “time out” Peter Baker, Washington Post, 3-12-08 http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thetrail/2008/03/12/bush_bashes_clinton_and_obama_1.html?hpid=topnews President Bush waded further into the presidential race today, slamming Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama for "empty, hollow political rhetoric" on trade and warning that they would make "a reckless mistake" by retreating from agreements to lower barriers with other countries. Although he did not name Clinton or Obama, he left little doubt whom he was talking about, at one point even mocking Clinton's promise to take a "timeout" from free trade agreements if she becomes president. "You know, some have called for a 'timeout' from trade," he told the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce shortly after Clinton addressed the group. "I guess that's probably popular with the focus group. You know, they toss out the word 'timeout' from trade -- it's got this kind of catchy little title to it. In the 21st century, a timeout from trade would be a timeout from growth, a timeout from jobs and a timeout from good results." Bush, who used his speech to push Congress to pass a pending free trade agreement with Colombia, noted pointedly that Clinton's husband, Bill Clinton, was a strong supporter of opening markets when he was president and quoted from his predecessor's remarks when signing legislation to implement the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) 14 years ago. Hillary Clinton, seconded by Obama, has abandoned NAFTA, saying she would threaten to opt out of the pact if Mexico and Canada did not agree to renegotiate it. "Listen, NAFTA has worked," Bush said. "People shouldn't back away from NAFTA. It's been a positive development for a lot of people."

Democrats will jack trade- rhetoric can’t be reversed Latin Business Chronicle 3-10-08 http://www.latinbusinesschronicle.com/app/article.aspx?id=2149 Jim Kolbe, Senior Advisor for Global Strategies at McLarty Associates and a former Republican member of Congress from Arizona: On trade, as on Iraq, clear differences have emerged between the likely Republican presidential candidate and the two leading Democrats. Senator John McCain has consistently said through the preceding 12 months that trade is a

cornerstone of our economic and national security policy, and that he would aggressively pursue a wide range of trade agreements that would liberalize the trading regime and open access in both US and foreign markets. The trade debate remained relatively benign on the Democrat side until the primaries reached the final crescendo in Ohio. There, because of real and significant job loss, the two remaining Democrat candidates have adopted harsh anti-trade rhetoric, each trying to outdo the other in denouncing trade agreements, particularly NAFTA. Senator Obama has accused Senator Clinton of being an architect of the NAFTA agreement, the final touches having been added by President Clinton who then worked hard for its adoption. Meanwhile, the senator from New York has promised to stop trade agreements that result in job losses. NAFTA has become the convenient whipping boy for an inevitable process of globalization. Still, it is hard to see how in either an

Obama or Clinton administration such rhetoric could be ignored or turned off easily and their administration return to a policy of actively pursuing trade agreements—a policy that heretofore has crossed party lines and been a consistent theme of presidents from both parties.

Anti trade rhetoric will make new deals impossible if democrat is elected Latin Business Chronicle 3-10-08 http://www.latinbusinesschronicle.com/app/article.aspx?id=2149 Peter Hakim, President of the Inter-American Dialogue: The campaign rhetoric on trade from the Democratic candidates is disappointing—although not surprising. Nearly every serious study of NAFTA concludes that it has benefited the economies of both the US and Mexico, and both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama know that. Their attacks on NAFTA are understandable given the constituencies they are trying to appeal to in Ohio and Pennsylvania, where free trade, globalization, and NAFTA are all anathema to most Democratic voters. Obama and Clinton say they are not opposed to free

trade, but only to the specific deals that have been negotiated; but they provide no sense of what kind of deals they would support—and both absented themselves from the vote on the Peru FTA. I fear that their discourse now will make it more difficult for them to shape and support sensible trade policies if either of them makes it to the White House. NAFTA is probably not in any particular danger; there may be a review and some fiddling at the edges, but the US-Mexico-Canada agreement is far too entrenched—and too much has been invested in it—to introduce drastic changes. And I am still optimistic, regardless of who wins the presidency, that a way will be found to approve the Colombia agreement, given that it is a signed deal with an important US ally, but its prospects are not helped by the NAFTA bashing of the candidates. What worries me most is that a Democratic president will abandon US leadership of free trade efforts—in the Hemisphere and worldwide—which will make new agreements virtually impossible. Instead of railing against free trade and globalization, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton would far better serve the workers of this country (and of Latin America) by focusing on how to expand and improve assistance for those who are left jobless or underemployed because of trade or technological change. In light of a spreading antiglobalization sentiment in the US (even among Republicans), John McCain may also find it difficult, particularly with a Democratic Congress, to lead on trade issues, just the way his leadership of immigration failed to produce decent legislation.

McCain best for trade Latin Business Chronicle 3-10-08 http://www.latinbusinesschronicle.com/app/article.aspx?id=2149

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Cresencio Arcos, Counselor for Government Affairs at K&L Gates in Washington, DC, and a former US Ambassador to Honduras: US trade policy in the next administration will face close scrutiny regardless of who is the president. Obama will tend to be most critical and seek more guarantees for US workers and small businesses, as well as environmental conditioning. The blue-green issues will be avidly considered. Obama will not roll back existing trade agreements, but new trade agreements will not prosper under him. Clinton will be less dismissive of trade, but be attentive to existing US arrangements. However, she would be most amenable to including labor and environmental considerations. McCain would be more inclined to consider completing or getting the Colombia, Panama, and South Korea agreements approved. He will also be circumspect in initiating new trade agreements. Trade in the next administration will not be a high priority. The national and global conditions are not conducive to trade expansion.

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Trade Good A new wave of protectionism would erupt into nuclear conflict Spicer, The Challenge from the East and the Rebirth of the West, 1996, p. 121 The choice facing the West today is much the same as that which faced the Soviet bloc after World War II: between meeting head-on the challenge of world trade with the adjustments and the benefits that it will bring, or of attempting to shut out markets that are growing and where a dynamic new pace is being set for innovative production. The problem about the second approach is not simply that it won't hold: satellite technology alone will ensure that he consumers will begin to demand those goods that the East is able to provide most cheaply. More fundamentally, it will guarantee the emergence of a fragmented world in which natural fears will be fanned and inflamed. A world divided into rigid trade blocs will be a deeply troubled and unstable place in which suspicion and ultimately envy will possibly erupt into a major war. I do not say that the converse will necessarily be true, that in a free trading world there will be an absence of all strife. Such a proposition would manifestly be absurd. But to trade is to become interdependent, and that is a good step in the direction of world stability. With nuclear weapons at two a penny, stability will be at a premium in the years ahead.

Trade is the number one factor that contributes to peace Gerald P O’ driscoll jr is senior fellow at the Cato Institute. Sara Fitzgerald is a trade policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation.

Orange County Register, Feb. 11, 2003 A report by the World Bank says that 2 billion people -- most of them in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and the former Soviet Union -- "live in countries that are being left behind." These countries have failed to integrate with the world economy, failed to knock down barriers to trade and investment flows, failed to establish property rights and, as a result, failed to grow into modern economies.And, according to research by Edward Mansfield of the University of Pennsylvania and Jon Pevehouse of the University of Wisconsin, that's a recipe for trouble. Mansfield and Pevehouse have demonstrated that

trade between nations makes them less likely to wage war on each other -- and keeps internecine spats from spiraling out of control. They also found these trends are more pronounced among democratic countries with a strong tradition of respect for the rule of law.Countries that trade with each other are far less likely to confront each other on the battlefield than are countries with no trade relationship. And the size of the economies involved doesn't affect this relationship, which means small, weak countries can enhance their defense capabilities simply by increasing trade with the world's economic giants.Experts, including Mansfield and Pevehouse, say intensive trade integration, perhaps more than any other factor, has led to an unprecedented five decades of peace in Western Europe. Lack of economic interdependence eliminates monetary diplomacy from a countries arsenal forcing them to rely on force- the Suez canal emp proves our argument AScribe Newswire 12-7-01 A country on the verge of hostilities with another country already knows the monetary value of its trade with that other country. Therefore, the researchers say, the risk factor in terms of trade is not an unknown. However, what each country doesn't know is how strongly the other country is willing to fight over some other issue beside trade: a slice of territory coveted by both countries, a military build-up perceived as a threat, the exposure of a spy network or the mistreatment of an ethnic or religious minority, they note. "Interdependent countries are in a better position to test the resolve of economic partners because

they can more effectively exert non-violent [i.e.economic] pressure, and then observe the consequences," Li notes. "By taking commercial measures that represent both a clear and credible threat, a state can signal to economic partners that it is prepared to make considerable sacrifices. If, however, these sacrifices are too critical, the country could lose bargaining power in future conflicts. " "In the event of a serious dispute, countries that are autarkic or economically isolated are most at risk of war, because they have no financial bargaining chips. All they can do is fall back on bluff and 'cheap talk.' Should that fail, their only option is to fight," says Li. The Suez crisis of 1956 is an example of how economic interdependence allows countries to compete financially rather than through force. On July 26 of that year, Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal, prompting protests from Great Britain and France. When negotiations failed to resolve the crisis, British and French forces invaded Egypt on Oct. 31. Despite a U.N. General Assembly resolution ordering a cease-fire and vocal opposition from the United States, Britain and France persisted in their attempts to occupy the canal and overthrow Nasser.

Best studies prove liberalization best promotes 3rd world growth Jonathan Carlson, Professor of Law, University of Iowa College of Law, Transnational Law & Contemporary Problems Spring, 2002 Furthermore, as an empirical matter, the greatest advances in social welfare during the post-WWII period occurred predominantly in those countries that followed the free-trade economic prescription. In their study of development in the 1970s and 1980s, Harvard economists Sachs and Werner found that developing nations with open economies grew at a 4.5% annual rate, while those with closed economies barely grew at all: a 0.7% rate. <=39> n38 The annual Economic Freedom of the World Report ranks countries on several measures, including openness to international trade. One consistent result is that the more open an economy ranks, the higher its GDP. <=40> n39

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Trade Good Reversing Globalization Causes State Failure David A. Atwood U.S.A.I.D. Faculty Research Advisor , Cutting Hunger and Poverty in Half: Interest Groups and a Renewed U.S. Commitment in the Post-Cold War World, 7-28-00 http://www.afr-sd.org/publications/cuthunger.pdf Poverty and hunger are one central element of state failure in some developing countries. In poor countries in Africa and elsewhere, it is possible that the social disruption caused by high mortality from HIV/AIDS can also contribute to this effect. An additional factor for the future is likely to be the extent to which poor countries and poorer members of society in those countries are seen to benefit from global trade, information technology, and biotechnology. According to the broad literature, and most recently confirmed by the State Failure Task Force, state stability is associated with higher incomes, better health, and less hunger;51 state stability also is likely to be associated in the future with the ability to ensure that the new

global economy, information, and biological revolutions are meeting some of the needs of poor people and countries. Failure on either of these fronts increases the likelihood and incidence of state failure substantially. As the recent United Nations Development Program’s Human Development Report states,52 “The voices and concerns of people already living in human poverty – lacking incomes, education, and access to public institutions – are being increasingly marginalized. Determined efforts are needed to bring developing countries – and poor people everywhere – into the global conversation.”

State Failure Kills Global Stability, causes Proliferation and collapses leadership David A. Atwood U.S.A.I.D. Faculty Research Advisor , Cutting Hunger and Poverty in Half: Interest Groups and a Renewed U.S. Commitment in the Post-Cold War World, 7-28-00 http://www.afr-sd.org/publications/cuthunger.pdf In this new, more measured and analytical literature, three major reasons are advanced as to why state failure in the developing world poses a threat to U.S. security39. First, state failure has often had spillover or contagion effects, creating instability in neighboring states where we may have vital interests40. Probably the starkest examples would be possible effects of continued crisis in the Balkans affecting stability in Greece and Turkey; the impact of the Rwandan crisis of the early 1990s on stability in all neighboring countries, several of which are of significant concern to the U.S., and the potential of instability in Zimbabwe to destabilize much of Southern Africa. Second, state failure can provide a breeding ground for the acquisition and use of weapons of mass destruction and other terrorist activities by marginal and angry insurgent groups. This is a concern brought out by both the bipartisan Hart-Rudman commission studying U.S. national security needs in the 21st century, as well as former Chief of Staff of the Army, General Gordon Sullivan. This concern received attention in an Army War College symposium on the topic of ethnic conflict.41 Finally, state failure

could have significant impact on the readiness of U.S. forces to defend U.S. allies or interests in the face of an attack. This is probably the security threat with the greatest potential to disrupt Western interests. Both humanitarian interests and the "CNN effect" are likely to influence continued U.S. involvement in humanitarian crises arising out of state failure. Even if Tucker, Snow, and the Tofflers are right that state failure is not in and of itself a U.S. national security concern, it nevertheless becomes a matter of national security to try to prevent such situations if we know that for other reasons U.S. forces are likely to get drawn into them. This is because continued U.S. military deployments for such purposes weakens the ability of

U.S. forces to defend U.S. national security interests in a more traditional attack and war scenario. Trade Key to Hegemony ROBERT D. HORMATS , VICE CHAIRMAN Goldman Sachs 2-27-01 February 27, 2001 TESTIMONY OF ROBERT D. HORMATS Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs (international) Mr. Chairman and members of the Finance Committee, I appreciate the opportunity to appear before you again to discuss American trade policy and to share some thoughts on the key issues before this Congress and this country in the period ahead. The most urgent next step in American trade policy is to develop the critical mass of support necessary for the US to advance its international economic interests in the decade ahead. Expanded global trade and investment over the last 50 years have provided enormous benefits for American workers, consumers and, businesses. We tend to take it for granted today, but this experience is in sharp contrast to the horrible economic mess the US and world got themselves into after World War I - when American leadership faltered. Protectionist measures and international financial instability were among the major factors that led to the depression. We should not forget the lessons of this period - or let our leadership of the global economy be derailed by internal divisions or complacency that the world economy will work just fine whether the US is an effective leader or not! Access to growing foreign markets was a vital factor in America's economic growth in the 1990s, especially for its most productive sectors such as high technology, agriculture,

competitive imports have reinforced the dynamism of our economy and broadened consumer choice, holding down the prices of many products to the benefit of millions of households. America's leadership in promoting trade liberalization and a robust global economic system have been essential to secure these benefits for the American people and to this country's ability to remain a strong and effective leader on global political and security matters for the last 50 plus years. entertainment and financial services. And

A DECLINE IN US MILITARY AND FOREIGN POLICY LEADERSHIP WOULD CAUSE A GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR Zalmay Khalilzad, RAND Defense Analyst WASHINGTON QUARTERLY, Spring 1995, p.84 U.S leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival, enabling the United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers, including a global nuclear

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exchange. U.S. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system.

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Trade Bad Trade interdependence causes war George Friedman, founder and chairman of Stratfor, and Meredith Friedman, The Future of War, 1996, p. 7-9 The argument that interdependence gives rise to peace is flawed in theory as well as in practice. Conflicts arise from friction, particularly friction involving the fundamental interests of different nations. The less interdependence there is, the fewer the areas of serious friction. The more interdependence there is, the greater the areas of friction, and, therefore, the greater the potential for conflict. Two widely separated nations that trade little with each other are unlikely to go to war—Brazil is unlikely to fight Madagascar precisely because they have so little to do with each other. France and Germany, on the other hand, which have engaged in extensive trade and transnational finance, have fought three wars with each other over about seventy years. Interdependence was the root of the conflicts, not the deterrent. There are, of course, cases of interdependence in which one country effectively absorbs the other or in which their interests match so precisely that the two countries simply merge. In other cases, interdependence remains peaceful because the economic, military, and political power of one country is overwhelming and inevitable. In relations between advanced industrialized countries and third-world countries, for example, this sort of asymmetrical relationship can frequently be seen. All such relationships have a quality of unease built into them, particularly when the level of interdependence is great. When one or both nations attempt, intentionally or unintentionally, to shift the balance of power, the result is often tremendous anxiety and, sometimes, real pain. Each side sees the other’s actions as an attempt to gain advantage and becomes frightened. In the end, precisely because the level of interdependence is so great, the relationship can, and frequently does, spiral out of control. Consider the seemingly miraculous ability of the United States and Soviet Union to be rivals and yet avoid open warfare. These two powers could forgo extreme measures because they were not interdependent. Neither relied on the other for its economic well-being, and therefore, its social stability. This provided considerable room for maneuvering. Because there were few economic linkages, neither nation felt irresistible pressure to bring the relationship under control; neither felt any time constraint. Had one country been dependent on the other for something as important as oil or long-term investment, there would have been enormous fear of being held hostage economically. Each would have sought to dominate the relationship, and the result would have been catastrophic. In the years before World War I, as a result of European interdependence, control of key national issues fell into the hands of foreign governments. Thus, decisions made in Paris had tremendous impact on Austria, and decisions made in London determined growth rates in the Ruhr. Each government sought to take charge of its own destiny by shifting the pattern of interdependence in its favor. Where economic means proved insufficient, political and military strategies were tried.

Free trade causes water marketing increasing destabilizing water conflicts Maude Barlow chairs the Council of Canadians and was the founding co-chair of Action Canada Network Blue Gold, 2001 http://www.wellnessgoods.com/bluegold.asp Proponents say that such a system is the only way to distribute water to the world's thirsty. But, in fact, experience shows that selling water on the open market does not address the needs of poor, thirsty people. On the contrary, privatized water is delivered to those who can pay for it, such as wealthy cities and individuals and water-intensive industries, like agriculture and high-tech. As one resident of the high desert in New Mexico observed after his community's water had been diverted for use by the high-tech industry: "Water flows uphill to money." The push to commodify water comes at a time when the social, political and economic impacts of water scarcity are rapidly becoming a destabilizing force, with water-related conflicts springing up around the globe. For example, Malaysia, which supplies about half of Singapore's water, threatened to cut off that supply in 1997 after Singapore criticized its government policies. In Africa, relations between Botswana and Namibia have been severely strained by Namibian plans to construct a pipeline to divert water from the shared Okavango River to eastern Namibia. The Mayor of Mexico city has predicted a war in the Mexican Valley in the foreseeable future if a solution to his city's water crisis is not found soon. Much has been written about the potential for water wars in the Middle East, where water resources are severely limited. The late King Hussein of Jordan once said the only thing he would go to war with Israel over was water because Israel controls Jordan's water supply. Meanwhile, the future of one of the earth's most vital resources is being determined by those who profit from its overuse and abuse. A handful of transnational corporations, backed by the World Bank, are aggressively taking over the management of public water services in developing countries, dramatically raising the price of water to the local residents and profiting from the Third World's desperate search for solutions to the water crisis. The agenda is clear: water should be treated like any other tradable good, with its use determined by market principles. At the same time, governments are signing away their control over domestic water supplies by participating in trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA); its successor, the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA); and the World Trade Organization (WTO). These global trade institutions effectively give transnational corporations unprecedented access to the water of signatory countries.

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Already, corporations have started to sue governments in order to gain access to domestic water sources. For example, Sun Belt, a California company, is suing the government of Canada under NAFTA because British Columbia (B.C.) banned water exports several years ago. The company claims that B.C.'s law violates several NAFTA-based investor rights and therefore is claiming US$10 billion in compensation for lost profits. With the protection of these international trade agreements, companies are setting their sights on the mass transport of bulk water by diversion and by supertanker. Several companies are developing technology whereby large quantities of fresh water would be loaded into huge sealed bags and towed across the ocean for sale. Selling water to the highest bidder will only exacerbate the worst impacts of the world water crisis.

Water Wars unleash 60,000 Nukes Weiner, Prof. At Princeton, The Next 100 Years p. 270 1990

If we do not destroy ourselves with the A-bomb and the H-bomb, then we may destroy ourselves with the C-bomb, the Change Bomb. And in a world as interlinked as ours, one explosion may lead to the other. Already in the Middle East, from North Africa to the Persian Gulf and from the Nile to the Euphrates, tensions over dwindling water supplies and rising populations are reaching what many experts describe as a flashpoint. A climate shift in that single battle-scarred nexus might trigger international tensions that will unleash some of the 60,000 nuclear warheads the world has stockpiled since Trinity.

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Trade Bad Free trade creates export driven economies which makes growth unsustainable and makes the global economy more susceptible to shocks Tom Palley, AFL CIO, Director of the Open Society Institutes Globalization Reform Project May 23 2002 http://www.union-network.org/UNIsite/In_Depth/Interna_Relations/GATS/AFLCIO%20domestic%20demand%20-%20amend.pdf Accessed 7-13-02 A fourth pathology concerns issues of autonomy, the quality of development, and dependency. Here, the argument is that export-led growth, especially when associated with export-processing zones, leads to shallow development with weak linkages into the rest of the economy. In effect, export-led growth replicates patterns of development associated with the earlier “plantation” model of development. This includes exploitation of workers and failure to generate widely shared rising incomes, which makes it difficult to develop domestic markets and autonomously sustainable growth. Instead, growth becomes dependent on growth of export demand, making developing countries vulnerable to slow-downs originating in their export markets. Moreover, this may also make the global economy more volatile as a whole. The logic is that of portfolio theory. When there are many autonomous centers of growth, the likelihood of a global growth slowdown is reduced as such an outcome depends on a slow-down hitting all centers of growth simultaneously. However, if growth of a large segment of the global economy (the developing country bloc) is dependent on growth in another segment (the developed country bloc), all that is needed for a global slow-down is for the leader bloc to slow. Looking to the future, the systemic contradictions of export-led growth stand to become sharper. Such growth can work for first-comers, but it falls apart once all try to clamber on board the export-led bandwagon. Particularly ominous is China’s advent on to the world trading scene. Export-led growth operates via a hierarchical process, with less developed newcomers replacing maturing export economies in which surplus labor supplies have been exhausted and wages are rising. With China’s advent, this system may be unworkable. China has huge supplies of labor at rock bottom wages, and population growth ensures that this will hold into the future. It is not clear that any developing country can now enter the system with production costs below those of China, making it impossible for new-comers to enter the hierarchy of export-led growth. If true, the export-led growth paradigm will find itself checkmated. There will be insufficient demand, while new supplier countries will be unable to compete with China.

Trade allows MNC’s to consolodate power spurring global holocaust Ken Reiner Founding Member of the Alliance for Democracy, 2002 http://www.thealliancefordemocracy.org/html/eng/1933-AA.shtml I view the continuing growth of corporate power and its despotic control of governments throughout the world, including our own, as a socio-economic disease. While Mussolini and others named it "Fascism," I call it "Corporism" because that name better reveals its underlying institutional structure. I would define Corporism as the domination of government and society by the emergence and power of the giant publicly-traded multinational corporations and financial institutions, organized in totalitarian hierarchies, which singly and in combinations buy or destroy their competitors, corrupt the politics of nations, and seize, hoard, and wield for themselves most of the wealth of the human race.We must recognize that we do have this cancerous disease, what it is doing to us and the world we live in, how it came about historically, and how and why it continues to be generated and sustained now in our society. Just as computer viruses find their ways into the software of our computers and destroy their operation, Corporism, promulgating itself by financial, legal, and technological means, has infected society in ways that lead to the hoarding of human resources, increasing

insecurity and misery for the bulk of the world's population, perhaps even to worldwide holocaust. We must conquer this disease if we are to survive.

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AT: Trade Impact

No matter who gets elected we will pursue trade deals Latin Business Chronicle 3-10-08 http://www.latinbusinesschronicle.com/app/article.aspx?id=2149 Abraham Lowenthal, Professor of International Relations at the University of Southern California: The competitive scramble for votes in the Ohio primary has created the impression that, if elected, either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would scuttle NAFTA and abandon longstanding US efforts to expand international trade, particularly with the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. What is most important about this attack on 'free trade' is that it responds to intensifying

concerns among US workers, both blue and white collar, about the increasingly evident combination of recession and inflation. People are very worried about the subprime mortgage crisis, the accelerating decline in real estate values, the shrinking consumption rate, increasing healthcare costs, uncertain pension rights, and the weakening dollar. The gathering anxiety leads easily to the search for scapegoats, whether trade agreements, unauthorized immigrants, or greedy corporations. The next US president and Congress will have to tackle the challenge of rebalancing and restimulating the US economy as an urgent priority. As they focus on this crucial task, my guess is that the pros and cons of free trade agreements will be nowhere near the center of debate. Decisions about fiscal and monetary policy, taxes, budgets, entitlements, investment, safety nets, retraining, infrastructure, energy, and the environment will be the heart of the matter. If and when a new national strategy for economic recovery and growth can be fashioned, renewed emphasis on expanding trade is more likely than not, no matter who is elected in November. In that context, the 2007 agreement between the Bush administration and the Democratic leaders in Congress, and then with the government of Peru, is a likely model, and substantial programs for worker retraining and adjustment in the United States are probable.

Anti Trade rhetoric is a sham N. Gregory Mankiw is a professor of economics at Harvard, NYT 3-16-08 With the two political parties apparently divided on trade policy, you might expect those free-trade-loving economists to be predominantly Republicans. But that’s not the case. One reason is that economists are not single-issue voters. Like everyone else, they are divided over contentious issues like health policy, the Bush tax cuts and the war in Iraq. BUT another reason is that many economists don’t really believe the populist rhetoric coming from the Clinton and Obama campaigns. They expect that once in office, either candidate would pursue a policy more like that of Mr. Clinton, who relied heavily on the advice of economic moderates like Mr. Summers and Robert E. Rubin, another former Treasury secretary. When reports surfaced recently of an Obama economic adviser telling the Canadian government to ignore his candidate’s anti-Nafta rhetoric, some people were appalled, but many Democratic economists I know were secretly relieved.

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CHINA BASHING Clinton and Obama support China bashing legislation

China Post August 15, 2007 HEADLINE: TIME FOR UNITED STATES TO LEAD, NOT FOLLOW ON CHINA With their fingers raised to detect the shifting political winds, those vying to control Washington seem to have little interest in reversing this trend. While the Republican field for 2008 stays mostly silent on China’s economic rise, the two leading Democratic candidates for president, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, have joined the ranks of China-bashers. Both support the Senate’s latest efforts to punish China for unfairly manipulating the yuan -- which they directly tie to stagnant wages and lost jobs in America.

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Textiles pressure spurs Chinese appreciation Wermuth ’05 (Dieter, Chief European Economist – United Financial of Japan Bank, The Case for Gradualism, THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY, Spring, http://www.internationaleconomy.com/TIE_SP05_Wermuth.pdf) It is therefore not the Chinese who want to untie the dollar bond, it is rather the Americans who are pushing for a realignment—more precisely, for an appreciation of the renminbi. The Chinese would prefer to argue that something that ain’t broke needs no fixing. They are dragging their feet and will only allow some upward adjustment of their exchange rate if the likely political repercussions of sitting tight outweigh the benefits. There is no theoretical limit to the amount of dollars they are able to buy. If the renminbi were weak, the situation would be quite different because China might run out of foreign exchange reserves at some point, but this is obviously not an issue today. The country will never run out of renminbi. [Continues…] If the PPP calculations are worth anything—and my gut feeling suggests that they are—a revaluation of the renminbi by 5 percent or even 10 percent will not make a big difference. After further prodding and arm-twisting, the Chinese may agree to such a step, well aware that the little improvement in their terms of trade is nice to have while international competitiveness is not seriously damaged. If the renminbi would be valued according to PPP terms, it would take 1.52 of them to buy one dollar, rather than 8.28 today. Think of the upheavals this would cause for the world economy. Revaluation stops Chinese domination of global textiles Terazawa ’03 (Tatsuya, Director, Japan External Trade Organization, The International Economy, 3-22, Lexis) The Chinese RMB in my view is clearly undervalued. China runs the highest trade surplus with the United States and continues to record a high level of current account surplus. China's foreign reserve is piling up at an astonishing speed. Since 1994, its foreign reserve has increased by more than five times. The current dollar peg was introduced in January 1994. In spite of the dramatic enhancement of the competitiveness of the Chinese economy and industry during the period since then, the currency level has been remained basically unchanged for nine years. The change in the currency regime or the level is long overdue. The arbitrarily low level of the RMB is a serious problem for the global economy. In addition to being the cause of exporting deflation to the world and a drag on the dollar, it can well wipe out or seriously affect the hope for economic development of many developing countries. Already new foreign direct investment (FDI) to Southeast Asia, which has been the engine for growth of the region, is dropping substantially. Although currency level is only one of the causes, the arbitrarily low RMB is certainly accelerating the shift of FDI from Southeast Asia to China. The damage can be more devastating for less developed economies. In January 2005, import quotas on textile trade will be abolished. With quotas gone, Chinese textile exports are expected to dominate the global textile market. The losers will be the developing countries depending upon textile exports for their growth. Pakistan depends upon textiles for 73 percent of their total exports. For India, Indonesia, and the Philippines, the figure are 23 percent, 15 percent, and 8 percent respectively. For these countries, competition with Chinese textile exports coupled with an arbitrarily low RMB will most likely lead to the devastation of their textile industries which is so important for them. From the development policy perspective, such an outcome should definitely be avoided. The most market-consistent way to deal with this problem is to appreciate the RMB or to shift the RMB to a float system before the damage is done. Otherwise, a huge amount of economic aid may be necessary to offset the negative impact. We also need to be fully reminded that the most vulnerable countries are the countries with much more importance after September 11 for security and anti-terrorism reasons. Specifically, causes collapse in Egypt, Indonesia and Turkey Business Line, 9/30/04 They cited the letter from 13 Senate Republicans and 16 Democrats, including the US Presidential candidate, Senator John Kerry, of Massachusetts, where they alleged that China's undisputed sway over the global textile and clothing trade would shake the economic and political stability of dozens of struggling allies such as Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia, the Philippines, Haiti, Mexico, the countries of sub-Saharan Africa, Central and South America. Egyptian instability causes nuclear war St. Louis Post Dispatch ’92 (11-19, Lexis) The government cannot provide the kind of services - health care, food, transportation and even education - that the fundamentalists have provided to Egypt's poor. The renegade actions of the fundamentalists matter because Egypt is the largest Arab nation, with a great following in the Arab and Muslim worlds. Were its government to fall in a coup and the National Democratic Party deposed after 40 years of one-party rule, the Middle East would tremble in a way not felt since the fall of the shah of Iran. Egypt's treaty with Israel would be swept aside, and a brutal, possibly nuclear war

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could be the outcome. The Middle East would be thrown into great upheaval, as states, rulers and people absorb the shocks and react accordingly. Fundamentalists in moderate Arab countries such as Jordan would be inspired to revolt too. The impact would be devastating for stability in the short and long run. World leaders can help to prevent these events by focusing on Egypt and helping it with its grave problems of overpopulation, underemployment and poverty. It is too glib to say that relative prosperity will keep Egypt out of the coup makers' reach.

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A2: Appreciation Bad – Chinese Econ Turn –-- overheat: A) Rapid growth will cause a hard landing – slowdown key Putzger ‘05 (Ian, Staff, Air Cargo World 6-5, Lexis) Investment and operators keep pouring into China but there is growing unease among those already in the country that the high-flying economy may presage a hard landing. Cargo operators are nervously trying to sort out whether there really are danger signals even as they keep their feet on the accelerator for fear of being left behind. The pull of China's economic growth is seemingly irresistible. For the first quarter, the central government reported 9.5 percent growth, but many observers believe the actual pace was closer to 11 percent. And China is attracting ever more overseas investors. According to some reports, foreign firms' investment averages about $1 billion a week. In their wake, logistics firms are relentlessly expanding their footprint in China. U.S. carriers have snapped up traffic rights to China as soon as they've become available, and operators such as Qantas and Singapore Airlines are taking advantage of fifth freedom rights to move freighters through China to North America and Europe. "In the first quarter, China exceeded all our expectations," said Ed Hernandez, senior vice president of sales and marketing for Polar Air Cargo, which entered the market late last year. The integrators have set a particularly aggressive expansion pace. DHL recently signed deals with Northwest Airlines and Cathay Pacific for flights from Shanghai to the U.S. and between Beijing and Hong Kong, respectively. DHL, which claims to control about 40 percent of the country's express market through its joint venture with Sinotrans, has embarked on a $273 million expansion program in China over the next five years. UPS, which had 20 logistics centers in China at the end of last year, is adding 10 in 2005 and 10 more in 2006. Having recently launched direct service to Guangzhou, it plans to boost its Shanghai flights from currently 12 to 14 a week next year. UPS has designated Shanghai to become a hub in 2007, when that option becomes available under the China-U.S. bilateral. David Abney, UPS president international, says the focus will be on building up international links but he didn't rule out a push into the domestic express market from the Shanghai base. "The size of that market is interesting, but we haven't made a decision yet," he said. However, some concern is creeping into the picture. "If there was a hiccup, it probably wouldn't surprise anybody. There is concern about a hard landing," said Steve Dearnley, president for the Asia-Pacific region at BAX Global. For one thing, Beijing's attempts to slow down the rampant growth to avoid an overheating of the economy has fallen short of its goals. The central government had aimed for 8 percent growth in the first quarter, well below the 9.5 percent clip it reported. Moreover, the rapid expansion is taking its toll on energy and human resources. Factories in the Pearl River Delta suffer frequent power shortages, contributing to China's soaring oil bills, as manufacturers run their production lines on generators when the power grid fails them. More worrying for many is an acute shortage of workers, an odd predicament in light of China's seemingly inexhaustible supply of labor. According to Mark Ting, deputy managing director of DHL China, southern China is experiencing a labor shortage of at least five million people. This is pushing up wages from Guangdong to Shanghai, said Abney. Inevitably, costs in the industrialized areas have risen sharply and are expected to continue their upward trajectory. Nowhere is this more pronounced than in Shanghai, which ranks eighth among the world's airports in terms of landing fees for 747-400 aircraft, according to the Air Transport Research Society. "Shanghai is not cheap. Pudong is more expensive than Tokyo," said Northwest Airlines Cargo President Jim Friedel. B) Revaluation slows Chinese growth – but won’t cause collapse Goldstein ’04 (Morris, Senior Fellow – Institute for International Economics, ADJUSTING CHINA’S EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES, 526, http://www.iie.com/publications/wp/wp04-1.pdf) Second, the experience of the 1990s does not suggest that real appreciation of the RMB will cause China’s growth performance to fall unduly. Between 1994 and early 2002, the real trade-weighted exchange rate of the RMB rose by 29 percent; see figure 16. Yet the average growth rate of the Chinese economy from 1985 through 2001 was 8½ percent, and in no single year did the growth rate fall below 7½ percent. At present, the overheated Chinese economy is probably growing at 10 percent, with bottlenecks increasingly appearing in a number of industries. The sustainable growth rate is clearly less than that. It is hard to imagine that a 15 to 25 real appreciation of the RMB would propel China’s growth much below the desired rate. It should also be kept in mind that the exchange rate is hardly the only policy variable affecting aggregate demand in China. Even if Chinese growth did slow down somewhat more than desired in the aftermath of an RMB revaluation, fiscal policy and monetary policy would be available to help support growth, much as they have done when necessary during the past decade.

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Reval Bad – Chinese Economy Revaluation collapses Chinese growth though internal financial destabilization and deflation Times, Online, February 16, 2004, http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8210-1003187,00.html A substantial revaluation could also be hugely damaging for the Chinese economy — especially if it were accompanied by the complete abandonment of exchange rate controls. A freely floating exchange rate may be the right long-term goal for China, but the country’s financial and legal infrastructure is not yet sufficiently mature to cope with the volatility of world markets. But even if China maintained a dollar peg, a sizeable revaluation would hurt export growth and could trigger deflation — with important knock-on consequences elsewhere. China is an increasingly important engine of growth in the global economy. It is the world’s biggest importer of copper, tin, zinc and many other commodities. It is a key market for the rest of Asia, with exports from Korea, Singapore and Malaysia all rising by more than 50 per cent in 2003, according to Standard Chartered. If it is true that, when the US sneezes, Britain catches a cold, then ex-Japan Asia might find itself with a nasty case of economic flu were the Chinese boom to slow. It is not only growth that would be at risk from a substantial yuan revaluation. By exporting cheap goods across the West, China is helping to keep down inflation in the industrialised world. Estimates from Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein suggest that cheap goods from China have knocked 0.25 to 0.4 per cent from eurozone inflation. Were Chinese import prices to surge, then this would inevitably put upward pressure on short-term interest rates in the eurozone, the US and the UK. For America, a jump in the Chinese currency would bring with it another set of problems. China, along with Japan, has boosted demand for dollars and pushed down its own currency with heavy purchases of US Treasury bonds. Were Beijing to let the currency rise, then its appetite for US bonds would inevitably diminish, and bond prices would fall as a result. Falling US bond prices mean higher long-term interest rates. This, in turn, could knock the American economic recovery off course. Blaming the undervalued Chinese currency is an easy get-out for the world’s industrialised nations. But those who think that a yuan revaluation would be a cure-all should think again. A surge in the Chinese currency would bring with it a whole new set of economic ills. By comparison, the world’s current financial problems would look like nothing more than a minor sniffle. Chinese economic collapse causes nuclear wars in all Asian hotspots Chen ’01 (Shuxen, RAND Corp, China the United States and The Global Economy) Indeed, U.S.-Chinese relations have been consistently driven by strong common interests in preventing mutually damaging wars in Asia that could involve nuclear weapons; in ensuring that Taiwan’s relations with the mainland remain peaceful; in sustaining the growth of the U.S., China, and other Asian-Pacific economies; and, in preserving natural environments that sustain healthy and productive lives. What happens in China matters to Americans. It affects America’s prosperity. China’s growing economy is a valuable market to many workers, farmers, and businesses across America, not just to large multinational firms like Boeing, Microsoft, and Motorola, and it could become much more valuable by opening its markets further. China also affects America’s security. It could either help to stabilize or destabilize currently peaceful but sometimes tense and dangerous situations in Korea, where U.S. troops are on the front line; in the Taiwan Straits, where U.S. democratic values and strategic credibility may be at stake; and in nuclear-armed South Asia, where renewed warfare could lead to terrible consequences. It also affects America’s environment. Indeed, how China meets its rising energy needs and protects its dwindling habitats will affect the global atmosphere and currently endangered species. Yet, China’s leadership, preoccupied with preserving its own power, lacks a convincing vision of China’s future. While we do not know whether China will rise to the challenge and prosper, or stagnate and falter, Americans have a great stake in China’s successful reform. That is why they have an interest in China’s acceding to the WTO, opening it to the global economy, and strengthening its compliance with international rules and norms. Cont.... Great common interests and risks of serious conflicts between the United States and China will keep raising difficult new challenges. They will require new initiatives for mutually beneficial cooperation and continuous efforts to avoid potentially critical misunderstandings over unforeseeable events in Taiwan, Korea, Japan, the Persian Gulf, Yugoslavia, or elsewhere. Without doubt, sustaining China’s economic growth and reinforcing its institutional reforms though greater openness is a winning prescription for both the United States and China. To pursue this course amid unexpected

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difficulties, both countries will need to pay close attention to many issues, conduct frank dialogues, and participate in constructive statesmanship. Ups and downs in U.S.-Chinese relations will likely recur, but they need not be as volatile as they have been in recent years. Assuming that the future will mirror the past, substantial changes in our situations and needs vis-à-vis each other will be unpredictable, inevitable, and hard to fathom. This puts a large premium on ensuring that there are clear communications between Chinese and Americans who are willing and able to keep the relationship on an even keel.

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Pressure Bad – US-China Relations Pressure collapses U.S.-China relations Hathaway ‘02 (Robert M., Dir – Asia Program, Wilson International Center for Scholars, Promoting Human Rights in China, National Bureau of Asia Research, Vol 13, No 1) The U.S.-China relationship is likely to be Washington’s most difficult bilateral relationship for the foreseeable future. It will not be a close or cordial relationship, for both countries have too many differences on issues of fundamental importance, including human rights. But neither are the two countries destined or preordained to be adversaries, let alone enemies. To the contrary, both countries share an interest in finding ways to surmount their very substantial disagreements. The task for the leadership of the two nations is to devise methods of working together when interests and values permit, while containing the very real and serious differences that will inevitably arise so that they do not sour the entire relationship. As the U.S. Congress, the Bush administration, and the American people seek to manage what will surely be a trying relationship for many years to come, it may be useful to keep a few general propositions in mind. First, Americans should employ a strategic vision as they look at U.S.-China relations. This relationship is a complex, multifaceted, and in many ways contradictory relationship. Too few Americans make an effort to view it in a comprehensive manner and to consider the totality of U.S. relations with Beijing. Many Americans tend to think about this relationship in terms of a single issue. For some it is human rights, for others trade or Taiwan, for still others abortion or Tibet or religious freedom. These are all important issues. They deserve to be part of the overall equation. But not any one of them is so important that it should be permitted to dominate or drive the entire bilateral relationship. Should the United States succumb to this temptation, not only will it jeopardize the U.S. ability to achieve other crucial American objectives, but it will also decrease the likelihood of succeeding even in the areas of most concern to Americans. Rather than allow single-issue politics to determine the future of this relationship, U.S. leaders must instead ask what is the range of American interests at stake, and how can they best advance the totality of those interests. Second, exercising strategic vision also means establishing priorities. At the moment the Bush administration sees China through the lens of the war against terrorism, and other important issues, including human rights, have been relegated to the back burner. At other times, nonproliferation or trade or Taiwan-related concerns have governed U.S. management of Sino-American relations. In truth, the United States has numerous items on its China agenda, and efforts to achieve these objectives in one area may impede Washington’s ability to realize other goals. So policymakers need to ask, to give one example, how a decision to sell arms to Taiwan could affect U.S. efforts to block North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, or its ability to promote better human rights conditions in China. Strategic vision, in other words, requires the United States to balance competing policy objectives in such a manner as to maximize the prospects of promoting our most vital interests. [Continues… ] The United States is also likely to encounter a prickly, nationalistic China that will take offense at perceived slights or signs of foreign, especially American, dictation or bullying. Nationalism is on the rise in China today—in part because the regime, having lost its ideological moorings, has deliberately beat the nationalism drum in order to sustain popular support. Feelings of fierce nationalism will place constraints on even an autocratic government. Officials well-disposed toward the United States will find reason to be firm in the face of perceived U.S. pressure. Nuclear war Conable and Lampton ‘93 (Barber B., President Emeritus – World Bank and David, President – National Committee, China: The Coming Power, Foreign Affairs, Dec/Jan, Lexis) Regionally American interests are both numerous and important. The two most protracted, economically distracting and politically explosive American military commitments in the post-World War II era were Korea and Vietnam. In both cases China figured prominently. The lesson is that regional stability requires workable U.S.-China relations. Competition between Beijing and Washington takes the form of exploiting indigenous regional conflicts by both powers, resulting in local problems that expand to suck both countries into a self-defeating vortex. The most serious threats to American security and economic interests in Asia include armed conflict with nuclear potential between the two Koreas and between India and Pakistan; a deterioration of relations between Beijing and Taipei that could lead to economic or military conflict; a re-ignition of the Cambodian conflict; and a botched transition to Beijing's sovereignty in Hong Kong in 1997. None of these problems can be handled effectively without substantial SinoAmerican cooperation. Constructive relations with Beijing will not assure P.R.C. cooperation in all cases; needlessly bad relations will nearly ensure conflict. The Republic of Korea's formal diplomatic recognition of Beijing last August, at

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the expense of Taipei, is just one indication of the increasing importance the region attaches to building positive ties to the P.R.C.

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Democrats bad- India Deal Democrats would wreck the India Deal Pranay Sharma is a senior journalist and a commentator on foreign policy issues in both print and audio-visual media. 3-12-08 http://sify.com/news/columns/fullstory.php?id=14617163 The government and supporters of the deal firmly believe that it is the best agreement that India could get. They argue that it would not only break the "nuclear apartheid" India had been facing for decades, but also elevate its status as a nuclear weapons state and allow it access to sophisticated and dual-use technologies. The growing urgency in the government to push through the deal has much to do with developments in the US as well as within India. The possibility of a Democrat President coming into office in

the US in January next year, has raised concerns about the future of the nuke deal. Irrespective of the love that Barack Obama or Hilary Clinton has among people in India, few would deny that the non-proliferation lobbies in America and elsewhere would come back as major players if either of them becomes President. This creates the possibility of new areas and conditions being attached to a re-worked 123 Agreement between India and the new US government. It could even give the opportunity to many other members in the Nuclear Suppliers' Group to come up with their set of conditions to support India on the nuclear deal. What exactly has changed for the government in New Delhi to become confident to think it could now push the deal through? For most part of its tenure, the Manmohan Singh government had been grappling for a plank that could fire the imagination of the people and convey the message that it cared for the millions of deprived Indians. The lack of confidence in the ruling Congress showed when under pressure from the Left, it made it clear that it was not willing to go through with the deal by sacrificing the government.

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India Deal Relations Impact --- Deal key to U.S.-Indian relations Schaffer ‘07 (Teresita, Dir South Asia Program – CSIS, “Nuclear Friends in Need”, Yale Global, 7-12, http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=9386) Since the early 1990s, the center of gravity in US foreign and security policy shifted from Europe to Asia, especially with the rise of Chinese power. The values-based partnership between India and the US is derived from the increasing importance of Asia and a convergence of interests that took shape in the decade after the collapse of the Soviet Union. India’s world-view after it became independent in 1947 was shaped by its anti-colonial history, nonalignment between the world’s two major blocs, determination to remain preeminent in its immediate neighborhood, and poverty, which in practice limited India’s international impact. India today sees itself as a major regional power on its way to becoming a major world power and the US as the key external friend who can help it realize its global ambitions. Economics – expanding India’s trade and investment and securing its energy supplies – has become a major driver of its foreign policy. Over the past 15 years, the change in both tone and substance of US-India relations has been revolutionary. Once India and the US internalized the significance of the end of the Cold War, both sides set about building a bilateral infrastructure for a working partnership in a changed world, largely built on the economic foundations of trade and foreign direct investment: Two-way trade rose from $11.6 billion in 2001 to $27 billion in 2005. Foreign direct investment rose from $1.7 billion in 2000 to $6.6 billion in 2005. With such common interests, it is a priority for both the US and India that Asia develop in peace and that no single power dominate the continent. Though this argument is seldom articulated by either government, India and the US have quietly worked to integrate Asia politically and economically. Both obviously think of China in this context, but neither is interested in creating an anti-Chinese alliance: For both, the objective is to encourage peaceful relations between China and the rest of the region. Historically, the US and India had radically different perspectives on security. The US opposed India’s nuclear policy, especially after the 1998 test of an explicitly military nuclear device. India saw the Indian Ocean as its own “security space,” and looked with a jaundiced eye on other powers, including the US, maintaining a regular military presence there. Ironically, the nuclear test provided the occasion for India and the US to have their first serious discussion about respective strategic perspectives and what would make the world a safer place. This dialogue ultimately did not change either country’s fundamental approach to nuclear proliferation. But it did lead the US to accept that it must deal with India as a nuclear power. It also led both countries to recognize a common interest in preventing the spread of nuclear-weapons technology. The test set the stage for changes during the 21st century: the simplification of US procedures for exports of non-nuclear high technology that India wanted to buy

-US civil-nuclear cooperation, which had been off limits for nearly 30 years. The US Congress passed legislation authorizing the agreement, and the understanding now makes its way through a multi-layered implementation process. This agreement has caused heartburn both in the US and India and, if implemented, will lead to major adjustments in the nonproliferation institutions that the US painstakingly built over the last 40 years. Still, the agreement should be supported for two reasons: First, removing India from the list of “nuclear outlaws” is an essential step in securing India’s energetic participation in preventing the spread of nuclear-weapons technology. Second, the US could not have developed a real partnership with India – one that could stabilize Asia and strengthen the region’s democratic orientation – without breaking the nuclear taboo. and the agreement making possible India

That causes nuclear war in South Asia NYT ‘02(6-10, Lexis) Military cooperation between India and the United States has remarkably quickened since Sept. 11, with a burst of navy, air force and army joint exercises, the revival of American military sales to India and a blur of high-level visits by generals and admirals. The fledgling relationship between American and Indian military leaders will be important to Mr. Rumsfeld in talks intended to put to rest fears of war between India and Pakistan. "We can hope this translates into some influence and trust, though I don't want to overstate it," a senior American defense official said in an interview on Thursday. "I don't want to predict this guarantees success." The American diplomatic efforts yielded their first real gains on Saturday when India welcomed a pledge by Pakistan's military ruler to stop permanently the infiltration of militants into Kashmir. India indicated that it would soon take steps to reduce tensions, but a million troops are still fully mobilized along the border -- a situation likely to persist for months -and the process of resolving the crisis has just begun. India has linked the killing of civilians in Kashmir to a Pakistan-backed insurgency there and has presented its confrontation with Pakistan as part of the global campaign against terrorism. India itself made an unstinting offer of support to the United States after Sept. 11, and Washington responded by ending the sanctions placed on India after its 1998 nuclear tests. With that, the estrangement that prevailed between the world's two largest democracies during the cold war, when India drew close to the Soviet Union and the United States allied with Pakistan, has eased. India, for decades a champion of nonalignment, seeks warmer ties with the United States in hopes of gaining access to sophisticated military technology and help in dealing with Pakistan. From the start of President Bush's term, some influential officials in his administration saw India as a potential counterweight to that other Asian behemoth, China, whose growing power was seen as a potential strategic threat. But since Sept. 11, the priority has been terrorism. The United States is hoping

its deeper military and political ties with India will give it some measure of leverage to prevent a war between India and Pakistan that could lead to a nuclear holocaust and would play havoc with the hunt for Al Qaeda in Pakistan. Extinction Fai ‘01(Ghulam Nabi, Executive Director, Kashmiri American Council, Washington Times, 7-8)

The foreign policy of the United States in South Asia should move from the lackadaisical and distant (with India crowned with a unilateral veto power) to aggressive involvement at the vortex. The most dangerous place on the planet is Kashmir, a disputed territory convulsed and illegally occupied for more than 53 years and sandwiched between nuclear-capable India and Pakistan. It has ignited two wars between the estranged South Asian rivals in 1948 and 1965, and a third could trigger nuclear volleys and a nuclear winter threatening the entire globe. The United States would enjoy no sanctuary.

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Solves Prolif Turns prolif --- India deal key to global non-proliferation Tellis ‘05 (Ashley, The Statesman, 11-16, Lexis) Contrary to these gloomy prognostications, the President's new agreement with India is a bold step that will have the effect of strengthening the nonproliferation order for many decades to come. Far from being a freebie for New Delhi, it represents a considered American strategy for integrating India into the nonproliferation regime, which India has not been part of since the nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was signed in 1968. The NPT was intended to prevent global proliferation by compelling all non-nuclear weapon states to give up their nuclear weapons ambitions as the price for enjoying access to civilian nuclear technology. This trade-off worked for most countries and represents a profound diplomatic accomplishment for which succeeding Republican and Democratic administrations should be credited. For a variety of political and philosophical reasons, however, India chose not to sign the NPT and went on to build both a large civilian nuclear infrastructure and a nuclear weapons stockpile based mainly on indigenous expertise. Thus, the restrictions on nuclear commerce that the USA orchestrated since 1974 progressively lost their relevance as far as India was concerned. In effect, India became an exceptional case regarding nuclear weapons and nonproliferation. Nevertheless, New Delhi established through this entire period an exemplary record of controlling onward proliferation. India's commendable nonproliferation history, however, owes entirely to sovereign decisions made by its government, not to its adherence to international agreements. As a result, any unilateral change in the Indian government's policy of strict nonproliferation could pose serious problems for American security. This concern has acquired particular urgency in the post-9/11 era because of the incredibly sophisticated capabilities present in India today and because India remains at the cutting edge of research and development activities in new fuel cycle technologies. Bringing New Delhi into the global nonproliferation regime through a lasting bilateral agreement that defines clearly enforceable benefits and obligations, not only strengthens American efforts to stem further proliferation but also enhances US national security. The President's accord with India advances these objectives in a fair and direct way. It recognises that it is unreasonable to continue to ask India to bear the burdens of enforcing the global nonproliferation regime in perpetuity, while it suffers stiff and encompassing sanctions from that same regime. So the President proposes to give India access to nuclear fuel, technology, and knowledge in exchange for New Delhi institutionalising rigorous export controls, placing its civilian reactors under international safeguards, and actively assisting the USA in reducing proliferation worldwide. In other words, he offers India the benefits of peaceful nuclear cooperation in exchange for transforming what is currently a unilateral Indian commitment to nonproliferation into a formally verifiable and permanent international responsibility. This deal, obviously, does not imply a lessened US commitment to maintain through intense diplomacy in the months and years ahead the vitality of the NPT regime, which remains critical to American national interests. But, it does indicate that extraordinary problems justify extraordinary solutions. The international community has long recognised India's anomalous position in the NPT framework. Consequently, three of the five legitimate, nuclear-weapon states have welcomed the Bush-Singh agreement and even the exception thus far - China - has been silent rather than opposed. Despite this fact, many fear that the agreement could undercut the basic bargain of the NPT and lead several current, non-nuclear weapon states to seek those same benefits now offered to India. This concern must be taken seriously, but it is on balance exaggerated. For starters, there is no international pressure to re-negotiate the NPT from either its nuclear or its nonnuclear signatories. Further, those non-nuclear weapon states that joined the regime and continue to remain members in good standing did so because the treaty emphatically serves their national interests. If anything, these countries should join IAEA Director-General Mohammed El Baradei in applauding the Bush-Singh initiative, because an India that undertakes binding international nonproliferation obligations promotes the security of non-nuclear weapons states as much as it does that of the USA. Not surprisingly, then, many non-nuclear weapon states such as Canada and Australia have endorsed the agreement. Finally, with regard to worries about other NPT non-signatories demanding similar deals to the one that Bush and Singh have just brokered, it is worth noting that India currently remains the only outlier worthy of such unique treatment. Although India, Pakistan, and Israel have not violated any NPT obligations by developing their nuclear deterrents, New Delhi alone meets the following criteria that justify international cooperation: It has proven mastery over various nuclear fuel cycles, which must now be safeguarded in the global interest. It has an exceptional nonproliferation record, despite having been a target of the international nonproliferation regime. Most

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importantly, it has enormous energy needs that cannot be satisfied without access to nuclear fuel (and to nuclear power more generally), if it is simultaneously expected to help mitigate the problems of climate change and environmental degradation.

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A2: Deal Bad – Pakistan Musharraf is indifferent on the deal The Nation ‘05 (7-26, Lexis)

If you label everyone enemy who will be your friend? Who will trust you, your credibility and reliability. President Musharraf has not even protested or reacted to the US- India Nuclear deal, Condoleezza Rice is reported to have spoken to Musharraf on the issue. According to her, his reaction was "constructive" and "not overly problematic". I can't make out what it really means! But what is more frustrating is the news that the US is not willing to provide nuclear power plants to Pakistan despite intense diplomatic efforts by Islamabad. Pakistan required these plants to meet its growing energy requirements. What alternatives are available to the government and what is the feasibility is the question.

Pakistan doesn’t view the deal as a threat Sifi News ‘05 (7-26, Lexis) Playing down the significance of the India-US nuclear pact, President Pervez Musharraf said the United States had assured him that the co-operation with New Delhi was confined to atomic energy and not related to weapons programme. "The US has assured me that the agreement it has signed with India is energy-related. It is not weaponrelated," he said, at an Editors' conference in Lahore on Monday.

The deal boosts India’s leverage with Pakistan Bose ‘05 (8-1, The Pioneer) Paradoxically, the real gain of Mr Singh's Washington visit may turn out to be better relations with other countries. With the world's only superpower going out of its way to pat India's back, the country does get undoubted leverage with Europe, Latin America and Africa as well as key players in the neighbourhood like China and Pakistan.

Favoring Pakistan Fosters Terrorists Deccan Herald ‘05 (7-18, Lexis) During his trip to Pakistan, Dr Debat found that there was a great deal of integration among many strata of political and jehadi Islam in Pakistan. He saw three types of militant groups. “The Kashmir-related groups are very sectarian, very anti-Shiite, and they have deep links to the Taliban.” These and other category of extremist groups

threatened to create a new Taliban in Pakistan, Dr Debat said. The US also faces a few dilemmas. The first dilemma is, if the US supports Pakistan it runs the risk of being perceived of a benefactor to supporters of terrorism which, in turn, will be seen by leaders in other lawless areas such as Yemen, Somalia and Niger.

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Deal Bad- Prolif Nuclear deal destroys the NPT causing fast global proliferation and inevitable nuclear winter Johann Hari, award-winning journalist, columnist for The Independent, July 30, 2005, Hamilton Spectator (Ontario, Canada), “From Hot Spots to Cold Wars,” p. F04 The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (may it rest in peace) is pretty basic. It was written in the aftermath of the Cuban Missile Crisis, when pale and shaken world leaders were slowly realizing how close they had come to committing "rational suicide" by launching a nuclear war. A consensus emerged that the number of nuclear weapons in the world needed to be drastically reduced, and that no new nuclear powers should be allowed to emerge to increase the risk even further. Almost every country in the world signed. The non-nuclear countries agreed not to tool up, in exchange for the already-nuclear countries agreeing to slowly dismantle their arsenals and to never, under any circumstances, share their nuclear technologies. The treaty has been in intensive care for years. Since it was signed in 1968, at least six other countries have acquired nukes, and only one country (South Africa) has disarmed. During Bush junior's presidency, the United States has ramped up its arsenal of WMD, working on "mini-nukes" and "more useable" bunkerbusting nuclear weapons. The North Korean tyranny has spent billions on nuclear weapons while its people starve and the Iranian mullahs are inching close behind. The recent UN meeting to discuss the future of the treaty was a shambles, since it was plain that nobody intended to abide by its terms. And then this week, President Bush unplugged the life support and held a pillow over the patient's face. After feting Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (above) at the White House, Bush unilaterally ended the sanctions imposed against India since it went nuclear in 1998, and privately welcomed her role as a nuclear bulwark against China. He announced a deal to begin sharing U.S. nuclear technology with India, making a mockery of one of the key ideas of the treaty. It would be more honest to give the treaty a public burial and admit that, for now, we are living in a world where nukes are proliferating across the globe with no international restraints. This might just jolt us awake. But should it? Is there really any danger of a nuclear weapon actually being used this century? Sadly, you can only dismiss nuclear weapons as 1980s nightmares if you are very short-sighted or if you have a very bad memory. Let's look at the subcontinent Bush has just begun to share his nuclear technologies with. Twice in the past six years, India and Pakistan have stood at the brink of nuclear war. In the 1999 Kargil crisis, the countries exchanged nuclear threats 13 times -- with no hotline between the two leaders to calm them down. Just three summers ago, Britain advised her citizens to evacuate cities like Delhi and Karachi because there was a "real and imminent" risk of them being evaporated in a mushroom cloud. The judgment call was right: Indian Defence Minister George Fernandes was bragging: "India can take a nuclear hit and hit back," while Pakistan's General Mirza Aslam Beg announced: "We can make a first strike, a second strike and even a third. Look -- you can die crossing the street, or you can die in a nuclear war. You've got to die some day anyway." We are entering a world of rapidly multiplying nuclear standoffs like this. India vs. Pakistan. Iran vs. Israel. America vs. China. Within decades, North Korea vs. Japan and South Korea. Not one Cold War, but many -- and the risk is doubled each time. True, since the election of the Congress Party last year, India's relations with Pakistan have (very slightly) relaxed. But the construction of a nuclear bunker underneath the prime minister's office has continued, and nobody has forgotten that the two countries have been at war four times in the past 60 years. The bombs have now fused with the fierce nationalism of the countries, with some Indian leaders still talking proudly of the "Hindu bomb" -- presumably followed by Hindu fallout and Hindu radioactive poisoning. (There is a horrible irony in this, since Robert Oppenheimer -- the father of the bomb -- responded to seeing the first ever nuclear explosion by quoting the god Vishnu from Hindu scripture: "I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds.") It is wildly naive to think that all these standoffs between highly volatile countries can continue until -- when? forever? -- without, sooner or later, a bomb being used. Even the minimal protections of the Cold War -- like hotlines between leaders -- are not yet in place in most of these countries. How many reruns of the Cuban Missile Crisis should we risk over the next century? It is not only the Usual Suspects who are warning about this. Even Margaret Thatcher -- one of the most militant defenders of nuclear weapons in the world -- has predicted that a "battlefield nuclear weapon will be used in the next 20 years". So where are all the old ban-the-bomb luvies, now the issue has become more complex, more "foreign" and less sexy? At the height of the last India-Pakistan standoff, I asked novelist Martin Amis what he thought about nuclear weapons now, and he mumbled something about a "regional nuclear war" being "less frightening." This is based on a dumb and flawed premise. All nuclear bombs in existence today are 20 times more powerful than the weapons dropped on Japan, and there are currently over 9,000 of them ready to fire within 45 minutes. But if just a handful of these weapons is exploded anywhere, there will be disastrous ecological and economic consequences everywhere. They will not be confined to the region where they are detonated. It is not clear how many weapons have to be exploded to trigger a nuclear winter and On The Beach-style universal death, but some scientists believe the use of India and Pakistan's

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joint arsenals would be sufficient. These are ludicrous risks when there is a solution out there -- even if it is pretty retro. One day we will have to disinter the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, wipe off the soil Bush just tossed on its coffin, and try to start a process of gradual, multilateral disarmament, removing a major threat to human life one radioactive step at a time. But do we have to wait for Hiroshima Redux to actually happen before we start on this long, slow work?

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Deal bad Pakistan Deal destroys US-Pakistan relations – they’re key to the war on terror Financial Times (London, England), March 20, 2006, “Pakistan seeks same nuclear deal as India,” p. Lexis Pakistan's failure to secure US nuclear technology for civilian use has triggered the most difficult challenge for the two countries since the terrorist attacks on the US in 2001, Pakistani officials warned yesterday. Amid growing criticism in Pakistan of the US agreement to supply civil nuclear technology to India, Pakistan's ambassador to Washington called for the two south Asian countries to be treated equally. "Instead of a country-specific deal on a subject as critical as nuclear technology, there should be a package for both India and Pakistan," said Jehangir Karamat, Pakistan's former army chief, in Dawn, the country's English-language newspaper. Islamabad officials said Pakistan, which is the closest US ally in the war on terror, was pressing Washington for concessions similar to those offered to Delhi during this month's visit to south Asia by President George W. Bush. "India and Pakistan are both de facto nuclear powers, we have both carriedout nuclear tests and weare both non-signatories to the NPT (nonproliferation treaty)" said one. "The US should not discriminate between us."

Terrorism causes global nuclear conflict – the ultimate impact is extinction Louis Rene Beres, professor of political science and international law at Purdue University, 1987, Terrorism and Global Security, Second Edition, p. 42-3 Nuclear terrorism could even spark full-scale war between states. Such war could involve the entire spectrum of nuclear-conflict possibilities, ranging from a nuclear attack upon a non-nuclear state to systemwide nuclear war. How might such far-reaching consequences of nuclear terrorism come about? Perhaps the most likely way would involve a terrorist nuclear assault against a state by terrorists hosted in another state. For example, consider the following scenario: Early in the 1990s, Israel and its Arab-state neighbors finally stand ready to conclude a comprehensive, multilateral peace settlement. With a bilateral treaty between Israel and Egypt already many years old, only the interests of the Palestinians—as defined by the PLO—seem to have been left out. On the eve of the proposed signing of the peace agreement, half a dozen crude nuclear explosives in the one-kiloton range detonate in as many Israeli cities. Public grief in Israel over the many thousands dead and maimed is matched only by the outcry for revenge. In response to the public mood, the government of Israel initiates selected strikes against terrorist strongholds in Lebanon, whereupon Lebanese Shiite forces and Syria retaliate against Israel. Before long, the entire region is ablaze, conflict has escalated to nuclear forms, and all countries in the area have suffered unprecedented destruction. Of course, such a scenario is fraught with the makings of even wider destruction. How would the United States react to the situation in the Middle East? What would be the Soviet response? It is certainly conceivable that a chain reaction of interstate nuclear conflict could ensue, one that would ultimately involve the superpowers or even every nuclear-weapons state on the planet. What, exactly, would this mean? Whether the terms of assessment be statistical or human, the consequences of nuclear war require an entirely new paradigm of death. Only such a paradigm would allow us a proper framework for absorbing the vision of near-total obliteration and the outer limits of human destructiveness. Any nuclear war would have effectively permanent and irreversible consequences. Whatever the actual extent of injuries and fatalities, such a war would entomb the spirit of the entire species in a planetary casket strewn with shorn bodies and imbecile imaginations.

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A2: Deal Good – US-India US-Indian relations will be strong regardless of the nuclear deal Markey ‘06 (Rep. Ed, D-MA, Giving Away The Farm: Bush Caves To India On Nuke Deal, 3-3, http://news.yahoo.com/s/huffpost/20060303/cm_huffpost/016718;_ylt=A86.I1NwP) The President argued that the India nuclear deal will strengthen the security and the economies of both nations. He is wrong. We do not need to grant India special exemptions from nuclear nonproliferation rules in order to have a strong security relationship with India and assist India in further developing and expanding its economy. India already has a strong geopolitical basis for developing close bilateral ties with the United States. Both countries are democracies, both already are major markets for one another's goods and services, and both share common security interests.

US-Indian relations high—the deal is pointless. Michael Krepon, President Emeritus of the Henry L. Stimson Center and Director of its South Asia Project, August 31, 2005, Stimson Center, http://www.stimson.org/pub.cfm?id=249

One question worth asking is whether the Bush administration believes that relaxing the rules of nuclear commerce is essential to improve Indo-U.S. relations. There is bipartisan support to improve ties, which began in a serious way at the end of Bill Clinton’s presidency, and has picked up considerable speed during the Bush administration. President Bush has greatly increased military cooperation with New Delhi, including the offer of advanced combat aircraft and their co-production in India. The United States has long been ready to increase trade and investment in India. The Bush administration has also relaxed restrictions on space cooperation, and is working more closely than ever with New Delhi on regional security problems. In other words, significantly improved ties are being forged without having to relax existing rules to prevent proliferation. So why has the administration proposed to weaken these rules? Does it honestly believe that foreign nuclear suppliers will agree only to make an exception for India, and not for other nations? At a time when Washington is pushing hard to toughen requirements for nuclear commerce to states that have pledged not to acquire nuclear weapons or appear to be seeking them, does it make sense to relax requirements on states that have nuclear weapons?

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