Da Aff Elections 17

WNDI 2008

1 Elections DA Aff

Elections DA Aff Elections DA Aff.........................................................................................................................................................1

Elections DA Aff.............................................................................................................................1 2AC AT: Elections......................................................................................................................................................3

2AC AT: Elections.........................................................................................................................3 Yes McCain.................................................................................................................................................................4

Yes McCain.....................................................................................................................................4 Yes McCain – Ohio.....................................................................................................................................................5

Yes McCain – Ohio.........................................................................................................................5 Yes McCain – Virginia................................................................................................................................................6

Yes McCain – Virginia...................................................................................................................6 Yes McCain – NV ......................................................................................................................................................7

Yes McCain – NV ..........................................................................................................................7 AT: Deep South..........................................................................................................................................................8

AT: Deep South..............................................................................................................................8 AT: Link – Nuclear Power.........................................................................................................................................9

AT: Link – Nuclear Power............................................................................................................9 AT: Link – Cap and Trade........................................................................................................................................10

AT: Link – Cap and Trade.........................................................................................................10 AT: Link-Uniqueness ..............................................................................................................................................11

AT: Link-Uniqueness .................................................................................................................11 Economy Key............................................................................................................................................................12

Economy Key................................................................................................................................12 AT: Bush/Issues Key................................................................................................................................................13

AT: Bush/Issues Key...................................................................................................................13 AT: Bush Key...........................................................................................................................................................14

AT: Bush Key...............................................................................................................................14 McCain Solves PHEVs.............................................................................................................................................15

McCain Solves PHEVs................................................................................................................15 McCain Solves Warming..........................................................................................................................................16

McCain Solves Warming.............................................................................................................16 McCain Solves Nuclear............................................................................................................................................17

McCain Solves Nuclear................................................................................................................17 AT: Universal Health Care.......................................................................................................................................18

AT: Universal Health Care.........................................................................................................18

WNDI 2008

2 Elections DA Aff

WNDI 2008

3 Elections DA Aff

2AC AT: Elections ( ) Obama won’t necessarily win and issues aren’t key Steven Stark, culture commentator for NPR, 6-12-2008, “Will the Election Be All About Obama?” RealClearPolitics, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/going_dutch.html Sure, he'll occasionally get the spotlight, and there are things he can do to improve his chances marginally. But in the end, this election is about Barack Obama. The country wants a significant change in direction and Obama and the Democrats are the only ones who can credibly promise to deliver it. Thus, the results in November are going to come down to one question: can a significant portion of the electorate abide Barack Obama as its next president? Right now, it's an open question. And for Obama to get the answer he wants, he's going to have to be another Ronald Reagan or another Franklin Delano Roosevelt. There is always a threshold over which nominees must pass when the electorate decides whether a candidate can be trusted with the most powerful job in the world. For some, like General Dwight Eisenhower in 1952, doing so is a cakewalk. For upstarts and more ideological purists, it's harder. Obama, of course, is the upstart of upstarts. The good news for Obama is that most nominees do, in fact, successfully make the transition, especially when there is an overriding desire for change. John F. Kennedy in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Reagan in 1980, and Bill Clinton in 1992 all faced an initially skeptical electorate and, through favorable debate performances and constant exposure in the general-election campaign, gradually reassured the public that it had less to fear from the unknown than from the known. Upon closer examination, however, the Kennedy, Carter, and Clinton comparisons may not offer much of a precedent for Obama. After all, each of the three was a centrist who ran at his challenger from the right as well as the left. Clinton and Carter came from the Southern GOP base and founded their appeal, in part, on their willingness to deviate sharply from party orthodoxy. JFK, too, was a hawk on military policy, running against Nixon from the right on the basis of a purported missile gap. In contrast, as his Senate voting record and positions demonstrate, Obama is as liberal as they come, without any public record of straying from his party's left-leaning causes and constituencies. That means to win, he'll have to replicate the Reagan experience and basically lead an ideological revolution that will redraw the electoral map. Risk assessment It's a highly risky strategy, to say the least. It's risky, in part, because Americans -- even when they say they want change -- often don't endorse a sharp turn in direction. Yes, FDR's election in 1932 signaled a transformation, but the nation was in the midst of its worst depression. Reagan fomented a shift in the other direction, but the economy was in tatters and another nation held our citizens hostage. Are the Iraq War and current economic situation commensurate woes? If precedent is any guide, for the Democrats to win, the voters will have to think so. Then there's Obama himself. FDR and Reagan were wellknown figures on the national scene for years before they finally made it to the Oval Office; they each had a track record as governor of the nation's then-largest state (New York and California, respectively) that, in the end, reassured voters they could be trusted with the nation's highest office. Obama, by comparison, has a short résumé. Yes, experience can be overrated (as Hillary Clinton discovered) but if you're promising to drastically refashion our politics, it may be more of a prerequisite than usual. Obama's uphill battle is made even trickier by the opponent he faces. Both FDR and Reagan won the office against damaged incumbents who, to a large number of Americans, had virtually disqualified themselves for a second term. McCain may not be a particularly vibrant candidate (especially if his Louisiana speech of this past week is any indication), but he's not the incumbent. Those focusing on Obama's challenges so far have tended to dwell on the issue of race. But race isn't really the main issue. Anybody would find it difficult to do what Obama is trying to do. He has a hard sell ahead of him, and there have been far more instances when such "revolutionary" candidates (think William Jennings Bryan, Barry Goldwater, or George McGovern) have found the general-election mountain far too steep to climb. Support him or not, give Obama credit for this: he thinks big, which is why the upcoming campaign will focus almost exclusively on his ideas and his persona. If only by doing that, he's already changed our politics.

WNDI 2008

4 Elections DA Aff

Yes McCain ( ) McCain will win – Electoral College heavily tilted towards GOP Robert Novak, Syndicated Political Columnist, 5-28-2008, “Electoral College Outlook: McCain 270, Obama 268,” Human Events, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=26723 Electoral College: While national polls garner attention, they have no direct bearing on choosing our next President. A state-by-state count of electoral votes is the key to analyzing the presidential race. For the first time this year, we run through all 50 states plus the District of Columbia in order to handicap the presidential race. Outlook: If the election were held today, we see a McCain victory by the narrowest of margins.

WNDI 2008

5 Elections DA Aff

Yes McCain – Ohio ( ) McCain will carry Ohio Robert Novak, Syndicated Political Columnist, 7-16-2008, “New Electoral College Analysis: Obama 273, McCain 265,” http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=27570&s=rcme Ohio (20): No matter what, Ohio can't escape its role as battleground. This year, however, McCain seems to be slightly stronger here than Bush was in 2000 and 2004. Central to McCain's success is Obama's reputation among "bitter" gun owners and religious voters—Hillary's Democrats. Much of Obama's campaign will be an outreach to bitter Ohio Democrats, but for now, the Buckeye State tilts Republican. Leaning McCain.

WNDI 2008

6 Elections DA Aff

Yes McCain – Virginia ( ) McCain will carry Virginia Robert Novak, Syndicated Political Columnist, 7-16-2008, “New Electoral College Analysis: Obama 273, McCain 265,” http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=27570&s=rcme Virginia: Virginia is possibly the most talked-about Red state to be making a pilgrimage to Blue. Given the Democratic takeover of the governorship, a Senate seat, and probably the other Senate seat, it seems fitting that Obama should have a strong play for Virginia's 13 electoral votes. But given the Southern nature of much of this state, and the high portion of undecideds, McCain should still feel confident about the commonwealth. Leaning McCain.

WNDI 2008

7 Elections DA Aff

Yes McCain – NV ( ) Obama not leading in Nevada Don Frederick, LAT Political Blogger, 7-7-2008, “In Nevada, the numbers game tilts Democratic,” LA Times Blog, http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/07/in-nevada-the-n.html As heartening as all this may be to Barack Obama's presidential campaign -- which included Nevada as one of the 18 states where his opening general election ads have aired -- few analysts will yet make [Obama] the favorite to capture it. Two polls in June showed the race for Nevada's five electoral votes very close, but with John McCain holding a slight lead. The Republican White House contender benefits from residing in a neighboring state. And, as underscored by a McCain radio ad unveiled late last week on Spanish-speaking stations in Nevada and New Mexico, he will aggressively court the Latino vote in the Southwest.

WNDI 2008

8 Elections DA Aff

AT: Deep South ( ) Obama won’t break solid south Dahleen Glanton, correspondent, 7-13-2008, Chicago Tribune, “In Deep South, Obama sees new shades of blue,” http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-obama-southjul13,0,1063903.story Obama recently began running television ads in 18 states, including Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia. While political observers say there is a chance he could succeed in Virginia and North Carolina, it is less likely that he can break the Republican stranglehold in Deep South states. .

WNDI 2008

9 Elections DA Aff

AT: Link – Nuclear Power ( ) Nuclear power isn’t popular enough Alex Kaplun, E&ENews PM reporter, 3-10-2008, “ENERGY POLICY: Poll shows voters united on alternatives, split on nuclear, oil industry incentives,” E&E News, nexis About 59 percent of Republicans say they support increased use of nuclear power, compared to 34 percent of Democrats and 46 percent of independents. Fifty-two percent of Republicans also favored tax cuts for oil exploration, compar

WNDI 2008

10 Elections DA Aff

AT: Link – Cap and Trade ( ) McCain won’t support cap and trade – won’t take credit Matthew Yglesias, Political Blogger for the Atlantic Monthly, 7-12-2008, “McCain and Climate,” Matthew Yglesias Blog, http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/07/mccain_and_climate.php I have to agree that it's incredibly unhelpful to have Bill Clinton and Al Gore praising John McCain on climate change. It's true, in a sense, that McCain is better than your average Republican on this issue. But that was much more true a couple of years ago when he was cosponsoring the McCain-Lieberman climate change half-measures bill. These days, though, that bill, inadequate as it is, has become the LiebermanWarner bill because McCain dropped his support for it. If McCain's not even going to support the most conservative cap-and-trade bill in the mix, then what is his nominal support for cap-and-trade worth, exactly? It's hard to construct an appropriate analogy here, but if Barack Obama claimed to be "for" something, and yet opposed every concrete effort to make it happen, I doubt GOP eminences grises would be leaping forward to praise him.

WNDI 2008

11 Elections DA Aff

AT: Link-Uniqueness ( ) McCain benefits from energy debate now James Pethokoukis, Capital Commerce Correspondent, 7-15-2008, “4 Reasons the Weak Economy Is Now Helping McCain,” US News World Report, http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2008/7/15/4-reasonsthe-weak-economy-is-now-helping-mccain.html 1) Gas prices. Polls show the public wants lower gas prices and thinks oil drilling can help get them. And McCain and the Republicans have positioned themselves as the party of more energy and lower prices. They want to drill, and they want to build more nuclear plants. But instead of opening up new areas to drilling, Democrats want to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. And who can forget Obama's response when asked what he thought of higher gas prices: "I would have preferred a gradual adjustment." One problem may be that Obama fashioned his energy plan when oil was a mere $60 a barrel. McCain seems to be smartly tweaking his policies on the fly—drilling, the gas tax moratorium—to appeal to voters furious about higher prices at the pump.

WNDI 2008

12 Elections DA Aff

Economy Key ( ) Economy is key to the election Megan Thee, Staff Writer, 7-16-2008, More Poll Findings: The Economy Trumps the War, by Far, New York Times, http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/16/more-poll-findings-the-economy-trumps-the-war-by-far/ With the campaign now in full swing and a two-man race under way, voters say they worry most about the economy and far less about the war in Iraq, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll. In an environment where gas prices now top $4 a gallon, mortgage companies are failing, and the financial markets prove consistently shaky, more than half of those polled cited an economic issue as the most important problem facing the country. The war in Iraq fell into the background, with only 13 percent of those polled citing it as most important. Before the 2006 midterm elections when the Democrats won control of Congress, only 7 percent of Americans said the economy was of paramount concern to them. Fifty-one percent of those polled said the Democratic party is more likely than the Republican party to ensure a strong economy, suggesting a liability for John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee. Voters closely associate Mr. McCain with Mr. Bush. Six in 10 voters said they expect that if elected, Mr. McCain would generally continue his predecessor’s economic policies.

WNDI 2008

13 Elections DA Aff

AT: Bush/Issues Key ( ) Public perception of Obama is the most important question for the election – issues aren’t key Myron Pitts, political columnist, 7-24-2008, “General Election Really a Referendum on Obama,” FayObserver.comhttp://www.fayobserver.com/blog/comments?bid=7&eid=6969 The more I think about it, the more I think the general election is all about Obama. This is not an original thought. MSNBC's Pat Buchanan and others have been saying the same thing. I think that you could have taken any Republican from the primary, except perhaps the radical Ron Paul, and the poll numbers would be roughly the same -- Obama with a slight edge or about even. I frankly think the GOP side could be blank -- no nominee yet -- and the poll numbers would be the same. I don't doubt that McCain is probably the best of a weak field on the other side, but really, the general election to date is not about him or his ideas. (He should be thankful for the latter, considering that on the two major issues, the war and the economy, his ideas are similar to Bush's.) The entire election is whether or not people will vote for the dramatic change that Obama represents, or whether they won't. It all comes down to whether they see that change as potentially good or potentially bad. This makes the GOP strategy fairly simple and conventional: Bring him down. (Another Buchanan notion.)

WNDI 2008

14 Elections DA Aff

AT: Bush Key ( ) McCain needs the environment to distance himself from Bush Lester Feder, staff writer, 6-20-2008, Huffington Post, “McCain’s Incoherent Environmentalism Is a Sign of Larger Problems,”AlterNet, http://www.alternet.org/environment/88885/?ses=8376171a6d7c9bae0dcb1e63ae0b3b59 Distancing himself from President Bush, John McCain pledged a new era of environmental stewardship Monday as he outlined his plan to address global warming, a cause he has embraced since activists hounded him during his 2000 run for president. This week, however, McCain infuriated environmental groups by reversing his opposition to off-shore oil drilling and tying himself to President Bush, who promptly called on Congress to lift the drilling ban. The McCain campaign has expended tremendous resources on the global warming issue; it organized a "green" tour in May, and has just released a new ad highlighting the candidate's position on the issue. From his campaign's perspective, the issue is a way to show McCain's independence from President Bush while simultaneously signaling sympathy for Americans who are struggling to fill their gas tanks. McCain's wholesale abandonment of a month-long environmental PR strategy is more than a knee-jerk response to a new peak in oil prices. It is a sign that the McCain campaign's efforts to define the 2008 election narrative are in disarray. Oddly, the political press -which has a Midas touch for turning policy disputes into process stories -- seems to have missed the full political significance of this policy shift.

WNDI 2008

15 Elections DA Aff

McCain Solves PHEVs ( ) McCain solves the case Lorraine Wollert and Jeff Green, staff writers, 7-18-2008, “GM’s Volt Becomes Centerpiece in Presidential Debate on Energy,” http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aVV3eMUSiMgQ&refer=politics McCain, 71, and Obama, 46, come at the issue from different directions. McCain wants to boost innovation by offering purchasers of zero carbon-emission cars a $5,000 tax credit. A graduated tax credit would apply to purchases of lower emission cars such as the Volt. He would establish a $300 million prize for development of new battery technology for vehicles. He also wants to encourage construction of 100 new nuclear plants and invest government money in development of clean-burning coal.

WNDI 2008

16 Elections DA Aff

McCain Solves Warming ( ) McCain supports CO2 emission reductions Scott Horsley, NPR Correspondent, 5-13-2008, “McCain Backs Limits on Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90394736 Republican presidential candidate John McCain is touting his plan to combat global warming as he stumps for votes this week in the Pacific Northwest. McCain travels to Washington state Tuesday for an environmental forum outside Seattle. On Monday, he was in Portland, Ore., where he visited the offices of a windmill company. McCain hopes his conservative approach to global warming will appeal to moderate Democrats as well as Republicans. It relies on the same market forces that he says helped create the problem. "For all of the last century, the profit motive basically led in one direction — toward machines, methods and industries that used oil and gas," McCain said. "Enormous good came from that industrial growth, and we are all the beneficiaries of the national prosperity it built. But there were costs we weren't counting." Those costs, in the form of greenhouse gases, can no longer be ignored, McCain said. He hopes to create a profit motive that works in the opposite direction — encouraging polluters to cut their carbon emissions. As president, McCain would cap overall production of greenhouse gases. Companies that produce more pollution would then have to buy carbon credits from those who find a cleaner way of doing business. "Instantly, automakers, coal companies, power plants and every other enterprise in America would have an incentive to reduce carbon emissions, because when they go under those limits, they can sell the balance of permitted emissions for cash," McCain said.

WNDI 2008

17 Elections DA Aff

McCain Solves Nuclear ( ) McCain supports nuclear plants Michael Mccord, Political Correspondent, 12-4-2007, “McCain: nuclear has role in energy mix,” Seacoastonline, http://www.seacoastonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071204/NEWS/712040393 PORTSMOUTH — Republican presidential hopeful John McCain wants America to get serious about nuclear power. "How can you possibly talk about alternative energy sources without nuclear power?" said McCain, who will take part in a candidate forum Thursday hosted by Seacoast Media Group, the parent company of the Portsmouth Herald. "It can have a real impact on decreasing greenhouse gases." At the forum, the Arizona senator will talk to voters about his energy security and global climate change policies. He said that facilities such as Seabrook Station nuclear power plant will be a vital component of his energy proposals, which he believes will enhance the country's long-term energy security and help reverse the effects of global warming. "We can do storage or reprocessing," McCain said about the issue of disposing of spent nuclear fuel rods. Look at what the French and other industrialized countries are doing. It's not a matter of technology, but leadership, and the American people can be convinced this is one of the smart routes to take."

WNDI 2008

18 Elections DA Aff

AT: Universal Health Care ( ) No health care bill – regardless of president Perry Pacon, Washington Post Campaign Blogger, 7-8-2008, “Democrats Gear Up New Push for Universal Health Care,” The Washington Post, http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thetrail/2008/07/08/democrats_gear_up_new_push_for.html McCain has also said he would make health care a major issue if he wins the presidency, but Democrats and labor groups oppose many of his proposals, as the Arizona senator is trying to transform the health care system into one in which individuals buy their own health care in a less-regulated market, which means they could have lower costs but also would assume more risk. The new coalition, while not outlining a specific health care plan, has goals that resembled what Obama and the Democratic candidates proposed in the primaries, offering subsidies to people so health insurance is affordable to the 47 million Americans who currently don't have it, creating new regulations that would prevent insurance companies from charging high prices or not offering insurance to people who already have chronic illnesses and allowing people to either buy insurance from a private company like Kaiser or enroll in a government-managed health care plan that would be run like but separate from Medicare. But, even if Obama were elected, there's no broad agreement on exactly how a universal health care bill would work, which is the problem Democrats faced in 1993 when the Clintons pushed the issue. Insurance companies, who drove much of the opposition in 1993, have signaled they would not support an approach like Obama's, which add regulations for them but does not require all people to purchase health insurance. Democratic Senate aides are pointing to the legislation passed in Massachusetts in 2006 as a model. That legislation included increased subsidies for low-income people but also a mandate that all people in the state purchase insurance, something Obama has railed against on the campaign trail.