Election Results Analysis

November 9, 2006

2006 Election Results Analysis: A First Cut The people have spoken -- or at least the (according to AP) roughly 40% of voting age citizens who voted have spoken. The results of 435 elections for House seats and 33 elections for Senate seats have handed control of both chambers to the Democrats come January, for the first time since 1994. Democrats picked up 6 seats in the Senate, and more than 30 seats in the House (the exact number remaining unclear due to several close elections that remain undecided). Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) will be Speaker of the House, Harry Reid (D-NV) will be Majority Leader in the Senate. What does it all mean for the international development and humanitarian community? Let's start with a look at the committees. Tables at the end of this document list all foreign relations authorizing and appropriating committee members and their status. What follows is a summary review and discussion. Senator Foreign Relations Committee SFRC leadership has given no indication they're going anywhere. Barring unforeseen shifts (which do sometimes happen) Senator Lugar (R-IN) and Senator Biden (D-DE) are likely to stay on the committee, with Biden as Chair and Lugar as ranking minority member. The Committee loses three members: Senator Sarbanes to retirement, and Senator Chafee and Senator Allen to losses. The loss of Senators Sarbanes and Chafee, reliable allies of our community, will be particularly felt. Senate Appropriations State/Foreign Operations Subcommittee Appropriations subcommittee leadership on the Democratic side is unlikely to change: current ranking member Senator Leahy has given no indication that he would move anywhere else and is expected to assume the Chairmanship of the Subcommittee. On the Republican side, on the other hand, things may change, given current Chair Senator McConnell's expected ascent to the Senate Republican leader position (with current leader Senator Frist retiring). While we don't know for sure, certainly there is reason to expect that a Minority Leader McConnell might relinquish his subcommittee slot. Possible successors – next in line in the seniority rankings currently – are Senator Specter (R-PA) and Senator Gregg (R-NH). The Subcommittee loses Senator Mike DeWine (ROH), who lost his reelection bid. Senator DeWine was considered a key champion to many in our community. Senate Appropriations Full Committee Leadership of the full Appropriations Committee will likely remain unchanged aside from the transfer of the Chair's gavel: Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV) will assume the Chair, while Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS) will be ranking Republican.

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House International Relations Committee With the Democrats taking control, current ranking Democrat Tom Lantos (CA) is in line to assume the Chair of HIRC. Rep. Lantos's strong interest in the work of the committee gives no reason to suspect he could be lured elsewhere, so barring outside intervention – which seems unlikely, rumors to the contrary notwithstanding – he is expected to take the gavel. On the Republican side things will change, with current Chair Henry Hyde (IL) retiring, and second-ranking Republican on the committee Jim Leach (IA) going down to defeat. Next in line in seniority is Christopher Smith of NJ followed by Dan Burton of IN, but House Republicans don't used seniority alone to choose their leaders, so rank may not be decisive. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL), who will be 4th ranking in seniority, has contested the Republican committee leadership position in the past, and may try again. Who will end up as the Republican leader on HIRC will likely depend on the outcome of overall Republican leadership elections and on any subsequent committee shuffling that may occur. Those leadership elections have reportedly been pushed back to Dec. 4, so the picture for the 110th will remain unclear for some time. Hyde and Leach were two more strong allies for our community, as was Sherrod Brown (OH), who won a Senate seat, so their departure will be felt and their replacements of particular interest. Retiring members Katherine Harris (R-FL) and Mark Green (R-WI) will also leave vacant seats on the Committee. House Appropriations Foreign Operations Subcommittee Democrat Nita Lowey (NY) is in line to assume the subcommittee Chair in January, barring any moves elsewhere (such as the Labor–HHS subcommittee?), with Jesse Jackson Jr. (IL) (possibly considering a run for Chicago mayor) and Carolyn Kirkpatrick (MI) next in line on the Democratic side. Departures here at this point are all on the Republican side, with the most important being the retirement of Jim Kolbe. Kolbe is another champion of the poor who will be missed. Also absent on the Republican side will be Don Sherwood of PA and John Sweeney of NY. Joe Knollenberg (MI) and Mark Kirk (IL) are at the top of the seniority line for Republicans, although again, that alone may not determine the Republican leader. House Appropriations Full Committee As in the Senate, leadership of the full Appropriations Committee will likely remain the same, with the gavel moving from the current Chair, Jerry Lewis (R-CA) to the current ranking Democrat, David Obey (WI). Discussion What is the upshot? There is a temptation to assume that Democrats are more internationalist and therefore more willing to invest in humanitarian and development work overseas, and based on that assumption to celebrate the Democratic ascendance to power as a good thing for the InterAction community and the work we care about. Certainly the ascension to chairmanships of Senators Leahy and Biden and Represenatives Lowey and Lantos would seem to bode well. A couple of arguments can be made to temper that optimism, however. First, a number of key champions for investing in the world's poor were on the Republican side and have

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now been lost to retirement or defeat at the polls: Hyde, Kolbe, Leach, DeWine, and Santorum come to mind. Secondly, this election will bring into Congress a number of more moderate Democrats. Whether "moderate" will in these cases translate into "less internationalist" remains to be seen. The bottom line of these two arguments is that there is even less reason than ever to think that support for foreign assistance and development work will fall strictly along party lines. A third argument concerns the broader landscape. The new Congress will face a tough fiscal environment, with considerable domestic spending pressures and the continued drain of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Leadership will be looking for places to cut spending, and foreign assistance will provide a tempting target. Supportive leadership on our committees may make only so much difference in such an environment. Ultimately, then, perhaps only cautious optimism is in order. The final dispensation of the FY07 spending bills, along with the supplemental appropriations bill expected in February, will provide initial indicators of the priorities of the 110th Congress. As caucus leadership posts, committee leadership posts, and committee memberships are decided, we will keep you updated and provide further analysis. Stay tuned. Tables The following tables list current membership of foreign relations authorizing and appropriating committees on each side, in order of seniority, with their status postNovember 7. Changes are in bold italics.

Senate Appropriations Committee Thad Cochran (R-Mississippi), Chairman Robert Byrd (D-West Virginia), Ranking Member

Not up Won

Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Republicans Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Chairman Arlen Specter (Pennsylvania) Judd Gregg (New Hampshire) Richard Shelby (Alabama) Robert Bennett (Utah) Kit Bond (Missouri) R. Michael DeWine (Ohio) Ted Stevens (Alaska)

Not up Not up Not up Not up Not up Not up Lost Not up

Democrats Patrick Leahy (Vermont), Ranking Member

Not up

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Daniel Inouye (Hawaii) Tom Harkin (Iowa) Barbara Mikulski (Maryland) Richard Durbin (Illinois) Tim Johnson (South Dakota) Mary Landrieu (Louisiana) Robert Byrd (West Virginia)

Not up Not up Not up Not up Not up Not up Won

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Republicans Richard Lugar (Indiana), Chairman Chuck Hagel (Nebraska) Lincoln Chafee (Rhode Island) George Allen (Virginia) Norm Coleman (Minnesota) George Voinovich (Ohio) Lamar Alexander (Tennessee) John E. Sununu (New Hampshire) Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) Mel Martinez (Florida) Democrats Joseph R. Biden, Jr. (Delaware), Ranking Member Paul Sarbanes (Maryland) Christopher Dodd (Connecticut) John Kerry (Massachusetts) Russ Feingold (Wisconsin) Barbara Boxer (California) Bill Nelson (Florida) Barack Obama (Illinois)

Unopposed Not up Lost Loss Not up Not up Not up Not up Not up Not up Not up Retiring Not up Not up Not up Not up Won Not up

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House Appropriations Committee Jerry Lewis, California 41st (R - Chairman) David R. Obey, Wisconsin 7th (D - Ranking Member)

Won Won

House Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations, Export Financing and Related Programs Republicans Jim Kolbe, Arizona 8th (Chairman) Joe Knollenberg, Michigan 9th Mark Steven Kirk, Illinois 10th Ander Crenshaw, Florida 4th Don Sherwood, Pennsylvania 10th (Vice Chair) John Sweeney, New York 20th Dennis R. Rehberg, Montana At Large John Carter, Texas 31st Democrats Nita M. Lowey, New York 18th (Ranking Member) Jesse L. Jackson, Jr., Illinois 2nd Carolyn C. Kilpatrick, Michigan 13th Steven R. Rothman, New Jersey 9th Chaka Fattah, PA

Retiring Won Won Won Lost Lost Won Won Won Won Unopposed Won Won

House International Relations Committee Republicans Henry Hyde, Chairman Illinois 6th James Albert Smith Leach Iowa 2nd Christopher Smith, Vice Chair, New Jersey 4th Dan Burton Indiana5th Elton Gallegly California 24th Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Florida 18th Dana Rohrabacher California 46th Edward Royce California 40th Peter King New York 3rd Steve Chabot Ohio 1st Thomas Tancredo Colorado 6th

Retiring Lost Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won 5 of 6

Ron Paul Texas 14th Darrell Issa California 49th Jeff Flake Arizona 6th Jo Ann Davis Virginia 1st Mark Green Wisconsin 8th Jerry Weller Illinois 11th Mike Pence Indiana 6th Thaddeus McCotter Michigan 11th Katherine Harris Florida 13th Joe Wilson South Carolina 2nd John Boozman Arkansas 3rd J. Gresham Barrett South Carolina 3rd Connie Mack Florida 14th Jeff Fortenberry Nebraska 1st Mike McCaul Texas 10th Ted Poe Texas 2nd Democrats Tom Lantos, Ranking member California 27th Howard Berman California 28th Gary Ackerman New York 5th Eni Faleomavaega American Samoa, Not Voting Donald Payne New Jersey 20th Sherrod Brown Ohio 13th Brad Sherman California 27th Robert Wexler Florida19th Eliot Engel New York 17th William Delahunt Massachusetts 10th Gregory Meeks New York 6th Joseph Crowley New York 7th Earl Blumenauer Oregon 3rd Shelley Berkley Nevada 1st Grace Napolitano California 38th Adam Schiff California 29th Diane Watson California 33rd Adam Smith Washington 9th Betty McCollum Minnesota 4th Ben Chandler Kentucky 6th Dennis Cardoza California 18th Russ Carnahan Missouri 3rd

Won Won Won Won Retiring Won Won Won Retiring Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Unopposed Unopposed Unopposed Retiring (won Senate race) Won Unopposed Won Won Unopposed Won Won Won Won Won Unopposed Won Won Won Won Won

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