Election In Lebanon; Mandate For Obama

Om Prakash Yadav [email protected]

W

ill the theory of Clash of Civilisations propounded by Samuel P. Huntington be proved wrong? It largely depends on how does the Obama’s Policy towards Muslim world especially Middle-East, Far-East and West Asia work. If it is a fiasco then perhaps even the last hope of restoration of peace in these strife torn areas would fade for few centuries. The war ravaged Middle East country Lebanon went to poll after Obama’s famous Cairo University’s speech and defying the predictions of most of the opinion polls, 14 March alliance of Saad Hariri, son of late Rafik Hariri has won 71 seats in the just concluded elections. Hezbollah on the other hand could bag only 57 seats paving way for its role as an opposition. Many strategists elucidate this victory as success of ‘Obama doctrine’. The total number of seat in Lebanon Parliament, the Assemblee Nationale is 128 and by winning 71 seats, stage is all set for Saad Hariri to become the next Prime Minister of Lebanon within a couple of days from now. Saad Hariri is considered close to US and other western powers and is a moderate. His father Rafik Hariri was killed on 14 February, 2005 allegedly by Syrian govt. Many including his son, the PM in waiting Saad Hariri feel that Rafik’s murder plot was hatched in Syria and there was some sort of connivance of Syrian government in this assassination into which investigation is still going on. Both Syria and Iran wanted Hezbollah to win so that Israel can be haunted. From this angle, Hezbollah’s defeat is seen as lessening of impact of hardliner in the region. Many experts term this outcome as ‘surprise election result’ because the general perception prevailed on the eve of this election was that mandate would be a fractured one, and either it would be a hung Parliament or Hezbollah would get a thin majority. The apprehension in international community ran high because victory of Hezbollah which enjoys staunch support from Iran and Syria, would have stirred the direction of politics in the region in different direction. The peace process which got a fresh lease of life with Obama Netanyahu is perhaps the last hope of pressing the reset button. The region can longer afford hostilities as it has already taken heavy toll both economy and life. The result was taken by pleasant surprise in many parts of the world. The question that is coming to everyone’s mind is that whether this result is an endorsement of Obama’s Middle-East policy or it is simply a transient phase in political cycle of Lebanon? Obama’s speech is being considered as a milestone in Middle East politics and one cannot deny the possible role of this speech in the outcome of this result. Undoubtedly Cairo speech marks the beginning of a tectonic shift in America’s established stand on Middle East. Obama’s repeated utterance on the ‘Two State Solution’ has been taken in the Arab world as a major policy change of USA vis-avis Lebanon-Israel. Obama categorically stated in this speech that both Israel and Palestine has ‘right of peaceful co-existence’. He also disapproved of Israel’s settlement in Gaza and West Bank which actually sent a wave of applause. It has undoubtedly perturbed Benjamin Netanyahu because bibi Netanyahu is considered a hardliner and his accession was generally not liked by most of the Arab countries. Even the International community also went pessimist with 1

Netanyahu becoming PM of Israel. The drift from American stereotype stand on Israel-Palestine may therefore be a harbinger of peace in the region. Obama has dared to show that he cares and really wants peace process to succeed. His speech has generally taken by Arab world with applause mixed with a little bit of caution pluswait and watch. But, everyone thinks, beginning has been made. Lebanon has a history of incessant hostilities. It has seen as many wars as any normal country witness in entire history on its civilization. There was a time when people across the world called Beirut as a ‘ghost city’. Quiet recently Lebanon witnessed a fierce war with Israel known as ‘July war’ which continued from 12th July to 14 August, 2006 in which Hezbollah of Lebanon fought against Israeli forces. This war left hundreds of civilian dead and thousand injured. This war razed major part of Lebanon and this country suffered from unprecedented humanitarian crisis. The scars of this devastation are still unhealed and common people of this country, like any other citizen, do want peace and political stability and it seems that Obama has been successful to some extent in instilling some hopes in the state of despair. It is however premature to say that Obama’s one speech has defused the sense of Anti-Americanism in Arab world.Obama has miles to go before he could achieve success in his Middle-East venture. He has to face the hindrance of Jew’s lobby in Congress as well as in US administration. The business community is still dominated by Israelis and they have an indomitable presence in scientist community also. Nonetheless, a good being has been made and the results in Lebanon have definitely shown some sort of endorsement of Obama’s gesture. This election, though took place in a geographically tiny country, but its political significance would not be confined in its boundary. The ripples of hope would hopefully reach across the continent and avert the clash of civilisation which seems imminent. Thus this election though held in Lebanon, is a mandate of Obama. Within a couple of days from now, the results of Iranian Parliament would be also declared and if Mamoud Ahmadinejad is defeated and Mir Hussain Moussavi wins in this election would be another endorsement of Obama’s policy towards Muslim world especially West Asian, Near East and Middle-East. Later is by and large considered moderate and it is being considered that Moussavi can reset relations with America. In fact Obama’s prestige and America’s future foreign policy are at stake. If Obama fails in this experiment, his problems at home is likely to increase because he is already facing resistance and opposition at home

2