Decision Making By Ahsan Hussain

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Ahsan Hussain

ID : 4583

Decision Trees

Planning Tool

Decision Trees Enable a business to quantify decision

making Useful when the outcomes are uncertain Places a numerical value on likely or potential outcomes Allows comparison of different possible decisions to be made

Decision Trees Limitations: How accurate is the data used

in the construction of the tree? How reliable are the estimates of the probabilities? Data may be historical – does this data relate to real time? Necessity of factoring in the qualitative factors – human resources, motivation, reaction, relations with suppliers and other stakeholders

Process

Economic growth rises 0.7

Expected outcome £300,000

Expand by opening new outlet Economic growth declines 0.3

Expected outcome -£500,000

Maintain current status £0 The circle denotes the point where different outcomes could occur. The estimates of the probability and the knowledge of the expected outcome allow the firm to make a calculation of the likely return. In this A square example it is: denotes the point where a decision is made, In this example, a business is contemplating There is also the outlet. option The to douncertainty nothing and current status– quo! wouldcontinues have an outcome opening a new is maintain the state the of the economy if theThis economy to grow of £0. Economic growth rises: is 0.7estimated x £300,000 = £210,000 healthily the option to yield profits of £300,000. However, if the economy fails to grow as expected, the potential loss is estimated at £500,000. Economic growth declines: 0.3 x £500,000 = -£150,000 The calculation would suggest it is wise to go ahead with the decision ( a net ‘benefit’ figure of +£60,000)

The Process Economic growth rises 0.5

Expected outcome £300,000

Expand by opening new outlet Economic growth declines 0.5

Expected outcome -£500,000

Maintain current status £0

Look what happens however if the probabilities change. If the firm is unsure of the potential for growth, it might estimate it at 50:50. In this case the outcomes will be: Economic growth rises: 0.5 x £300,000 = £150,000 Economic growth declines: 0.5 x -£500,000 = -£250,000 In this instance, the net benefit is -£100,000 – the decision looks less favourable!

Advantages

Disadvantages

“ QUOTES “

If you really want something, you can figure out how to make it happen. Cher You are here for a purpose. There is no duplicate of you in the whole wide world. There never has been, there never will be. You were brought here now to fill a certain need. Take time to think that over.“ !!!!! 