Davao Presentation - March 20 Pm

Navigating Through A Sea of Crisis 26 March 2009 Jonathan L. Ravelas Chief Market Strategist

Navigating Through A Sea of Crisis

2009

1

the past

2

and beyond…

3

Vicious Cycle

3

4

5

6

4

depreciating PHILIPPINE PESO

5

Economic Picture

6 Strategy and Summary

volatile CRUDE OIL prices

bankruptcies, layoffs, RECESSION..

Series of Events Government Actions

BDO

EQUITY MARKETS down by more than 50%

2009

1

2

Risks and Challenges

WHAT’S HAPPENING??!

SNAPSHOT: World Stock Index Falling….. MSCI WORLD INDEX (713.850, 803.110, 688.638, 803.110, +52.2470) 1750 1700

1560.68 ii

1650

1750

16000

1700

15500

1650

1600

1600

1448.76

1550

I (5)

1500

3

1450 1400

i 1356.78

1085.80

1300 1250

4 1024.42 B

1150 1100

2

900

A 856.59

12500 12000 11500

1350

11000

11000

10500

10500

10000

10000

9500

9500

1200

9000

9000

1150

8500

8500

8000

8000 7500

7000

1000

6500

950

6000

600

750

3500

650

Near-Term Support at 700.00

600 550

500

500

5500 5000 4500 2746.65 (3)

450

450

( 2 ) 423.14 401.02

300 Relative Strength Index (20.4116)

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

3500 3000 2500

2000

995.14

1500 1000

381.17

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Source: Bloomberg LP and BDO

1018.00 (1)

III

2000 1500

(4) 1853.61

I

500

IV 573.20

II 41.22

-500

1000 500

(2) 736.80

0 -500

400

-1000

350

100

300

90

90

80

80

70

70

60

60

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2002

4000

3000

0

1989

6000

4500 4000

550

1988

6500 6594.44

2500

C ( A) 703.704

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

7000

(A) 7197.41

5500

800

700

650

350

13000

11500

900

834.35 iii

400

13500

1400

850

571.02 (1)

700

14000

12500

5000

(4) 908.07

750

15000

(I) V (5)

12000

1050

B 997.726

950

15500

14500 11780.28

7500

1000

800

13000

1100

1050

850

1500

1250

1200

16000 14198.10 (B)

14000 13500

1300

1

A

1142.95 ( 3 )

16500

(USA) Dow Jones Industrial Average (8,772.25, 9,088.06, 6,469.95, 7,400.80, -1,375.59)

15000 14500

1550

1450

1350

DJIA: Almost Bottom? 16500

1682.35 ( B ) C

-1000 Relative Strength Index (24.1395)

100

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20 1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Source: Bloomberg LP and BDO

Financial Sector Writedowns Bank Writedowns / Losses and Capital Raised, USDbn 1,750

Global Markets on a tailspin following collapse of US Housing Market in 2007

Asia Europe Americas Total Capital Raised

1,500 1,250 1,000

MOST OF YOU WILL ASK:

750 500

IS IT OVER?

250

IMF Est. (Jan.'09)

IMF Est. (Oct.'08)

IMF Est. (Apr.'08)

Q4.08

Q3.08

Q2.08

Q1.09* (to date)

S ource: Bloomberg, IMF and own calculations

Q1.08

Q4.07

Q3.07

Prior

0

HOW DID WE GET HERE? Influx of money to the U.S.A

1

Low interest rates promoted consumption and investment

Speculative demand required more funding

SERIES OF EVENTS

Easy credit encouraged investing in housing market

Housing Prices soared

Subprime exposure magnified defaults

REAL ECONOMY

HOW DID WE GET HERE? Investors forced to sell at lower prices to cut losses

Housing prices fell

Flood of assets lowered their values

Collapse and Bankruptcy; Stock market crash

Forced to raise capital

LOSS OF WEALTH = Economic Slowdown

Financial institutions reported write downs and record losses

ASSET PRICES GO DOWN

BAD LOANS SOARED

CREDIT MARKET TIGHTENS

CREDIT MARKETS AFFECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RISES

BUSINESS EXPANSION HALTS

LIQUIDITY SQUEEZE

REAL ECONOMY AFFECTED CONSUMER SPENDING AND INVESTMENT SLOWS

COMPANIES REPORT LOWER INCOME

RECESSION

EQUITY VALUATIONS FALL

THE VICIOUS CYCLE BANK WRITEDOWNS AND LOSSES

2

MORE DEBT DEFAULT

VICIOUS CYCLE

CREDIT CRUNCH

HEALTHY COMPANIES CANNOT SECURE FUNDING

FORECLOSURES / BANKRUPTCIES

LESS CONSUMPTION, LESS INVESTMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT

IDEAL SCENARIO TO SOLVE THE CRISIS:

3 GOVERNMENT ACTIONS

LOWER WRITEDOWNS

ASSET PRICES STABILIZE

ACTION

CREDIT MARKETS STABILIZE CREDIT MARKET LOOSENS

LENDING RESUMES

BORROWING NEEDS LESSEN

REAL ECONOMY STARTS TO PICK UP.. CONSUMER SPENDING AND INVESTMENT STARTS TO PICK-UP

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES

RECOVERY

HIGHER EQUITY VALUATIONS

LINES OF DEFENSE

AGGRESSIVE ACTION IS NECESSARY!

FIRST LINE OF DEFENSE Accommodative monetary policies SECOND LINE OF DEFENSE Fiscal stimulus THIRD LINE OF DEFENSE Direct interventions (i.e. takeover of institutions)

Measures to AID the US Economy

LIQUIDITY

SOLVENCY

ECONOMY

DEPOSIT INSURANCE

BAIL OUT / RESCUE PLANS

ACCOMODATIVE MONETARY POLICIES

CENTRAL BANK LIQUIDITY FACILITIES

ASSET PURCHASE SCHEMES

FISCAL STIMULUS

The key is limiting moral hazard while safeguarding financial stability RECOVERY

How will it affect the US Economy? GOVERNMENT ACTIONS …will help normalize the CREDIT MARKETS

Provide access to funds

…will stimulate the REAL ECONOMY

More consumption, more investments, more business activity

…will increase optimism in EQUITY MARKETS

Corporate profits to increase, stock prices to rise

WHY IS FEAR STILL HERE?
CHANGE comes SLOWLY
Negative news breeds and feeds FEAR

MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK To understand financial markets, these are the indicators to look at:

4

Market

Indicator

Economic Indicator

Gross Domestic Product

ECONOMIC PICTURE

Goods Market

Inflation Rate

Funding Market

Interest Rate

External Market

Foreign Exchange Rate

External Market (portfolio)

Stock Market

Philippines : Today POSITIVE Strong OFW Remittance Inflow Build-up of international reserves

NEGATIVE Limited stimulus

1600

60

1400

55

1200

50

1000

45

800

40

600

35

400

30

200

25

0

20

Weak fiscal revenue structure Weakening export performance

Au g

-9 De 7 c9 Ap 7 r-9 Au 8 g98 De c9 Ap 8 r-9 Au 9 g -9 De 9 c -9 Ap 9 r-0 Au 0 g -0 De 0 c0 Ap 0 r-0 Au 1 g01 De c0 Ap 1 r0 Au 2 g0 D 2 ec -0 Ap 2 r-0 Au 3 g -0 De 3 c -0 Ap 3 r-0 Au 4 g0 De 4 c0 Ap 4 r05 Au g0 D 5 ec -0 Ap 5 r-0 Au 6 g -0 De 6 c -0 Ap 6 r-0 Au 7 g0 De 7 c0 Ap 7 r-0 Au 8 g0 De 8 c08

Flexible Foreign Exchange Policies

OFW Remittances

Solid telecom infrastructure

Political / Social Tension OFW Remittances

USD/PhP

Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

Steady flow of remittances helps cushion the currency’s vulnerability 23

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Jonathan L. Ravelas

24

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Jonathan L. Ravelas

Philippines : Today POSITIVE Strong OFW Remittance Inflow Build-up of international reserves

Then and Now

NEGATIVE Limited stimulus Weak fiscal revenue structure

Flexible Foreign Exchange Policies

Weakening export performance

Solid telecom infrastructure

Political / Social Tension

1997

2007

2008

2009F

2010F

GDP (annual variation in %)

5.20

7.30

4.60

5.30

5.30

Unemployment (%)

7.90

7.30

8.10

7.80

7.77

Fiscal balance (% of GDP)

0.10

(0.20)

(1.00)

(2.00)

(1.10)

Interest Rate (benchmark in %, EOP)

17.70

3.70

5.80

5.02

4.95

Exchange Rate (vs. US$, EOP

39.98

41.25

47.52

48.50

45.74

Int. Reserves (months of imports)

2.90

7.00

7.20

7.61

8.04

External Debt (% of GDP)

52.20

38.10

34.50

31.48

30.70

Source: BSP, BDO

We are in BETTER SHAPE now than in 1997 during the Asian Crisis! 25

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Jonathan L. Ravelas |

Philippines : Today NEGATIVE

Strong OFW Remittance Inflow

Limited stimulus

Build-up of international reserves

Weak fiscal revenue structure

Solid telecom infrastructure

27

Philippine Economic Resiliency Plan

POSITIVE

Flexible Foreign Exchange Policies

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Jonathan L. Ravelas

Jonathan L. Ravelas

COST

SOURCE

PhP 160 billion

Increase in the budget

PhP 40 billion

Corporate and individual tax breaks

PhP 100 billion

GOCCs, GFIs, private sector

PhP 30 billion

Temporary additional benefits to GSIS / SSS/ PhilHealth members

Weakening export performance Political / Social Tension

PROJECTIONS

Crisis Four Economic Stimulus 2008 GDP Philippines

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

4.60

6.05

5.20

2.60

2009F GDP 4.00

3.80

0.80

0.40

US$ bn

7.0

6.0

17.0

4.0

% of GDP

Description

4.3

Infrastructure spending, tax breaks, education and other causes (PhP 330 bn)

1.3

9.0

1.8

Infrastructure projects and subsidies (IDR 17trn); Tax cuts and concessions (IDR 56.3trn) Fiscal spending, Guaranteed funds for corporates and SMEs, equity investments, tax breaks Cash handouts, training programmes, tax breaks and public works (THB 116.7bn)

2006

2007

2008

2009F

2010F

World Output

4.00

4.00

2.30

- 0.30

2.60

United States

2.80

2.00

1.30

- 1.60

2.10

Euro Zone

2.80

2.70

0.70

- 1.90

0.90

Latin America

5.40

5.60

4.40

1.10

2.90

Asia

6.00

6.90

4.00

1.80

4.70

Japan

2.00

2.40

- 0.70

- 2.80

0.90

Asia (ex-Japan)

8.80

9.60

6.70

4.70

6.70

China

11.60

13.00

9.00

7.20

8.40

India

9.60

9.00

7.10

5.70

7.00

ASEAN

6.00

6.40

4.50

1.80

4.20

Indonesia

5.50

6.30

6.05

3.80

5.00

Malaysia

5.90

6.30

5.20

0.80

3.90

Philippines

5.40

7.20

4.60

4.00

4.50

Thailand

5.20

4.90

2.60

0.40

3.20

Source: Consensus Forecast, IMF, BDO Forecast

Philippines : Today POSITIVE

Philippine Fiscal Program NEGATIVE Revenues (Php bn)

Strong OFW Remittance Inflow

Limited stimulus

Build-up of international reserves

Weak fiscal revenue structure

Expenditures (Php bn) Surplus/(deficit) Deficit (% of GDP)

Flexible Foreign Exchange Policies

Weakening export performance

Solid telecom infrastructure

Political / Social Tension

2007

2008

2009-E

2009-G

1,137

1,202

1,214

1,302

(1,149)

(1,270)

(1,384)

(1,479)

(12)

(68)

(170)

(177)

(0.2%)

(0.9%)

(2.0%)

(2.2%)

BDO

Gov’t

Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

 Government revises ’09 budget deficit to PhP 178 billion (or 2.2% of GDP) 31

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Jonathan L. Ravelas

PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS Philippine GDP (YOY)

Circular Flow

Headline vs. Core Inflation 14

15

12 10

Household

10 5

8 0

STABLE MACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS

Income

6

-5

Consumption

4

-10

Headline

2

-15 1982

Core

0

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Source: BSP, NSCB and BDO

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Source: BSP, NSCB and BDO

Philippine Trade Balance

Philippine Peso

60

1500

55

1000

Employment

50

Production

500 45

0

40

Production / Industrial Sector

35

-500

30

-1000 25

-1500 1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

20 1993

1994

1995

Source: BSP, NSCB and BDO

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

34

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Jonathan L. Ravelas

Source: BSP, NSCB and BDO

Effect of Crisis

Circular Flow

Household Income

Household Income

Consumption

Employment

Consumption

Employment Production

Production

Production / Industrial Sector 35

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Jonathan L. Ravelas

Production / Industrial Sector 36

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Jonathan L. Ravelas

STIMULUS PACKAGE

PHILIPPINE YIELD CURVE

Sector Watch List

13

LEAST AFFECTED

MOST AFFECTED

Power and energy

Electronics

7

Food and beverage

Automobile

5

Property

3

11 9

Healthcare Infrastructure

Mining

Business Process Outsourcing

6/13/2006

Tourism

Remains Stable 3M

6M

1YR

2YR

3YR

5YR

7YR

10YR

20YR

9.095

9.386

9.377

10.161

10.654

11.039

11.739

12.114

12.777

4/24/2006

4.620

5.340

6.030

6.166

6.221

6.439

6.722

6.882

8.622

12/31/2007

4.1885

4.9088

5.6654

5.7615

5.8569

6.0396

6.1385

6.5827

8.3288

12/24/2008

5.7523

6.0981

6.2142

6.4385

6.5962

6.8135

7.2038

7.4365

10.9673

3/20/2009

4.5554

4.6917

4.8004

5.2117

5.5825

6.3208

7.2421

8.0771

9.6688

WORLD CURRENCIES

SOVEREIGN YIELDS 20

1.81%

Dollar Index 18

-0.22%

British Pound

VENE 25, 17.50

-1.41%

Canadian Dollar

16

-1.57%

Australian Dollar 14

Competitive ROP Yields

12

Philippine peso

-1.57%

Thai Baht

-1.68%

INDON 35, 10.80

10

-1.96%

Euro

INDON 16, 9.91

-2.64%

Indian Rupee

COL 27, 8.41

VIET 16, 9.07

ROP25, 7.83 KOR 25, 7.33

ROP19, 7.29

-3.03%

New Zealand Dollar

ROP31, 7.77 8

-4.01%

Japanese Yen

ROP30, 7.87

ROP16, 6.48 6

MEX 26, 6.84 MALAY 11, 3.62

4

-4.51%

Swiss Franc

BRAZ 27, 7.29

-4.91%

Malaysian Ringgit

ROP11, 3.61 CHI 13, 3.76

-5.18%

Singapore Dollar

CHI 11, 2.73

10Y UST's, 2.56

-5.88%

Indonesian Rupiah

2

Korean Won

-10.81%

0 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

-13.00%

-11.00%

-9.00%

-7.00%

-5.00%

-3.00%

-1.00%

1.00%

3.00%

USD/PhP: Volatility remains

WORLD EQUITIES

ECONOMIC PICTURE 61.0 60.5 60.0 59.5 59.0 58.5 58.0 57.5 57.0 56.5 56.0 55.5 55.0 54.5 54.0 53.5 53.0 52.5 52.0 51.5 51.0 50.5 50.0 49.5 49.0 48.5 48.0 47.5 47.0 46.5 46.0 45.5 45.0 44.5 44.0 43.5 43.0 42.5 42.0 41.5 41.0 40.5 40.0 39.5 39.0 38.5 38.0 37.5 37.0 36.5

USD/PHP (48.9000, 49.1450, 48.9000, 49.0600, +0.26000)

Scenario 1

61.0 60.5 60.0 59.5 59.0 58.5 58.0 57.5 57.0 56.5 56.0 55.5 55.0 54.5 54.0 53.5 53.0 52.5 52.0 51.5 51.0 50.5 50.0 49.5 49.0 48.5 48.0 47.5 47.0 46.5 46.0 45.5 45.0 44.5 44.0 43.5 43.0 42.5 42.0 41.5 41.0 40.5 40.0 39.5 39.0 38.5 38.0 37.5 37.0 36.5

(I)

V 56.37

III 56.45 V

55.75

E

C

e

55.16

a

53.65 2 (0.51 %)

54.335 A

b D 53.83 51.88 50.17 iii

50.88 1

47.12 4

B 49.25

45.88 i

44.79

iv 46.45

IV 3 44.70

46.00

ii 43.76

40.25 5 A IV 37.52

8.07%

TWSE Index 4.13%

KOSPI Index Jakarta Composite Index

0.14% -2.08%

PSEi Index

-2.74%

Kuala Lumpur Composite Index

-4.91%

Stock Exchange of Thailand Index

-6.33%

Dubai Financial Market Index SENSEX Index

-7.67% -8.39%

Tadawul All Share Index

-9.84%

Straits Times Index

-10.31%

Nikkei 225

-10.85%

Hang Seng Index S&P 500 FTSE 100 Dow Jones Industrial Average DAX Index

100

Relative Strength Index (67.8106), Volume (0)

25.28%

Shanghai Composite Index

-13.20% -13.92% -15.67% -15.94%

15000

-30.00%

50

10000

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

5000 0 x1000000

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

PSEi: Volatility remains

Stocks to watch

ECONOMIC PICTURE

Investment Summary Philippines Holding Firms SM Utilities EDC FGEN FPH MER Financials BDO BPI MBT Food and Beverage JFC Property ALI MEG SMPH Telecoms TEL

Philippine Composite Index (1,818.57, 1,839.82, 1,745.39, 1,833.90, -22.2000) 4000

3820.55 ( 1 ) 5

3900

4000

B 3896.74

3900

3800

3800

3700

3700

3600

3600

3500

3500

2

3400

3400

3300

3300

3200

3200

3100

3100

3000

3000

2900

B 2632.60

2602.46

2700

2900

4

1

2800

2800

A 2874.99

3

ii

2700

2600

2600

2500

2500

2400

2400

2300

i

2300

3

2200

2200 iv

2100 2000

2100 2000

4 2034.49

1900

1900

1800

1800

1479.85 1

1700

1700 iii

1600

1600

C ? (2) 1684.75

1500 1400

1500 1400

1300

1300

1200

1200

1100

1100

1000 900

1000

A 1075.32

2 985.03

C II 978.19

800 700

900 800 700

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Volume (1,008,141,952), Relative Strength Index (33.6180) 15000 10000 5000 x1000000

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Source: BDO and Bloomberg 44

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Jonathan L. Ravelas

Price 3/20/2009 16:46

EPS 2009F

2009F

186.00

25.64

7.25

2.85 19.00 22.25 87.50

0.40 7.97 6.82 3.38

7.13 2.38 3.26 25.89

21.50 34.00 23.00

2.18 2.22 5.56

9.86 15.32 4.14

44.00

2.44

18.03

5.50 0.48 7.00

0.26 0.11 0.59

21.15 4.36 11.86

1,965.00

223.36

8.80

Market Cap (PhP mn) 113,649.72 42,750.00 15,390.57 13,092.35 97,537.13 49,493.65 91,949.60 41,567.21 44,658.68 71,690.30 9,907.99 87,047.03 370,854.45

Philippine Outlook Summary

Q4 2008

Q1 2009F

Q2 2009F

Q3 2009F

Q4 2009F

Consumer Prices (%, Y-O-Y)

8.00

7.20

6.50

6.30

6.20

Interest Rate (3M, EOP,%)

5.75

4.49

5.20

5.15

5.25

Interest Rate (5Y, EOP,%)

6.81

6.23

8.75

9.00

8.70

Exchange Rate (USD/PhP, EOP)

47.52 48.54 45.00 50.00 48.50

5 RISKS AND CHALLENGES

 Economy will stabilize in 1H09 as negative news are in the prices  Currency and economy will recover as economic expectations bottom out.

Risks and Challenges  Global recession is here!  The Philippines will escape a recession but will experience a marked slowdown.  Global and Local Markets remains Volatile  Once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunities usually arise during crisis years

6 STRATEGY AND SUMMARY

Investment Strategy Asset Class

CAN THE NEWS GET ANY WORSE?

Products

Fixed Income CASH

Fixed Income Peso Denominated

2009F

Cash Deposits Special Deposit Accounts(SDAs), Money Market Funds

Neutral

Fixed Income Treasury Notes, Local corporate bonds

Diversify and shift to floaters from fixed

ROPs, USTs Fixed Income

Trade US$ bond funds

USD$ Denominated

Yield Range: 7% - 12% (UITF, Mutual Funds) Common stocks, stock funds

Equities

Accumulate (UITF, Mutual Funds)

49

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Jonathan L. Ravelas

WHERE ARE WE NOW?

WISHFUL THINKING

POINT OF MAXIMUM FINANCIAL RISK Euphoria “Wow, I am Smart.”

One could only think of the following: “Temporary set back – I’m a long-term investor.”

Anxiety Thrill Denial

Prices are relatively “CHEAP”




Higher yields (interest rates)
Higher yields (interest rates)

Fear

Excitement Optimism




WE ARE HERE!

Desperation Panic

Optimism Relief




Better dollar value (slightly depreciated)

Hope “How could I have been so wrong?”

Capitulation Depression Despondency

POINT OF MAXIMUM FINANCIAL OPPORTUNITY

♦The BEST time to INVEST is when things are at its WORST.

Thank You for Listening SUMMARY The WORLD ECONOMY is robust enough to weather this global financial storm. The PHILIPPINES is in BETTER shape to face the challenges ahead. These adjustments are good opportunities to ENTER the market. But some RISKS remain.

``the race is not to the swift nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all." Ecclesiastes 9:11

FORECASTS

PROJECTIONS 2006

2007

2008

2009F

2010F

World Output

4.00

4.00

2.30

- 0.30

2.60

United States

2.80

2.00

1.30

- 1.60

2.10

Euro Zone

2.80

2.70

0.70

- 1.90

0.90

Latin America

5.40

5.60

4.40

1.10

2.90

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009F

99.00

117.60

144.10

168.60

175.34

4.90

5.40

7.30

4.60

4.14

4.50

4.80

5.50

5.80

4.50

4.00

4.40

(8.80)

5.00

11.20

4.20

3.80

7.96

Industrial Production (annual variation in %)

4.25

4.80

7.10

5.00

2.10

Unemployment (end-of-period, %)

8.10

7.80

7.40

8.10

7.79

7.77

(2.70)

(1.10)

(0.20)

(2.00)

(1.10)

GDP (US$ billion) GDP (annual variation in %) Private Consumption (annual variation in %) Gross Fixed Investment (annual variation in %)

Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)

(1.00)

2010F 183.23

3.83

Asia

6.00

6.90

4.00

1.80

4.70

Consumer Prices (end-of-period, annual variation in %)

7.60

6.30

2.80

9.30

6.74

6.80

Japan

2.00

2.40

- 0.70

- 2.80

0.90

Interest Rate (short-term benchmark, end-of-period, in %)

5.60

5.30

3.70

5.80

5.02

4.95

Interest Rate (long-term benchmark, end-of-period, in %)

9.57

5.99

6.04

6.81

8.70

7.24

Asia (ex-Japan)

8.80

9.60

6.70

4.70

6.70

Exchange Rate (against US$, end of period)

53.07

49.13

41.25

47.52

48.50

45.74

China

11.60

13.00

9.00

7.20

8.40

Exchange Rate (against US$, average)

India

9.60

9.00

7.10

5.70

7.00

ASEAN

6.00

6.40

4.50

1.80

4.20

Indonesia

5.50

6.30

6.05

3.80

5.00

Malaysia

5.90

6.30

5.20

0.80

3.90

Philippines

5.40

7.20

4.60

4.00

4.50

Thailand

5.20

4.90

2.60

0.40

3.20

55.09

51.31

46.19

44.48

47.63

44.59

Current Account Balance (US$ millions)

2.00

5.30

6.40

3.10

3.00

3.00

Current Account Balance (% of GDP)

2.00

4.50

4.40

1.80

1.71

1.64

Trade Balance (US$ millions)

(7.70)

(6.96)

(7.91)

(11.18)

(10.50)

(11.70)

Exports (US$ millions)

40.30

46.50

49.30

49.00

47.40

49.84

Imports (US$ millions)

48.00

53.30

57.60

62.20

57.90

61.54

Exports (annual variation in %)

3.80

15.60

6.00

(0.60)

(3.27)

Imports (annual variation in %)

8.00

10.90

8.10

8.10

(6.91)

18.40

23.00

33.80

37.10

36.70

International Reserves (US$ millions)

Source: Consensus Forecast, IMF, BDO Forecast

International Reserves (months of imports)

5.15 6.29 39.94

4.60

5.20

7.00

7.20

7.61

Total External Debt (US$ millions)

54.20

53.40

54.90

58.20

57.10

57.68

Total External Debt (% of GDP)

54.70

45.40

38.10

34.50

34.50

31.48

7.79