090417pse2

Navigating Through A Sea of Crisis

2009 the past

1

2

and beyond…

3

Vicious Cycle

4

5

Economic Picture

6 Strategy and Summary

Series of Events Government Actions

Risks and Challenges

2009

1

2

3

4

5

6

BDO

EQUITY MARKETS down by more than 50% depreciating PHILIPPINE PESO volatile CRUDE OIL prices

bankruptcies, layoffs, RECESSION..

WHAT’S HAPPENING??!

SNAPSHOT: World Stock Index Falling….. MSCI WORLD INDEX (713.850, 803.110, 688.638, 803.110, +52.2470)

1682.35 ( B ) C

1750 1700

1750 1700

1560.68 ii

1650

1650

1600

1600

1448.76

1550

I (5)

1550

1500

1500

3

1450

1450

1400

1400

i 1356.78

1350

1085.80

1300 1250

1300

1

A

1142.95 ( 3 )

1350

1250

4

1200

1200

1024.42 B

1150 1100

1150 1100

2

1050

1050

1000

1000

B 997.726

950 900

(4) 908.07

850 800 750

900 850

A 856.59

571.02 (1)

700

950

800 750

834.35 iii

700

C ( A) 703.704

650 600

650

Near-Term Support at 700.00

600

550

550

500

500

450

450

400 350

400

( 2 ) 423.14 401.02

350

300

300 Relative Strength Index (20.4116)

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

Source: Bloomberg LP and BDO

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

DJIA: Almost Bottom? 16500

16500

(USA) Dow Jones Industrial Average (8,772.25, 9,088.06, 6,469.95, 7,400.80, -1,375.59)

16000

16000 14198.10 (B)

15500 15000

15500 15000

14500

14500

14000

11780.28

13500 13000

14000

(I) V (5)

13500 13000

12500

12500

12000

12000

11500

11500

11000

11000

10500

10500

10000

10000

9500

9500

9000

9000

8500

8500

8000

8000

7500

7500

7000

7000

(A) 7197.41

6500 6000

6500 6000

6594.44

5500

5500

5000

5000

4500

4500 2746.65 (3)

4000 3500

4000 3500

3000

3000

2500

2500

2000

995.14

1500 1000

381.17

1018.00 (1)

III

2000 1500 (4) 1853.61

I

500

IV 573.20

0

1000 500

(2) 736.80

0

II 41.22

-500

-500

-1000

-1000 Relative Strength Index (24.1395)

100

100

90

90

80

80

70

70

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20 1920

1930

1940

Source: Bloomberg LP and BDO

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Financial Sector Writedowns Bank Writedowns / Losses and Capital Raised, USDbn 1,750 Asia Europe Americas Total Capital Raised

1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250

IMF Est. (Jan.'09)

IMF Est. (Oct.'08)

IMF Est. (Apr.'08)

Q4.08

Q3.08

Q2.08

Q1.09* (to date)

Source: Bloomberg, IMF and own calculations

Q1.08

Q4.07

Q3.07

Prior

0

Global Markets on a tailspin following collapse of US Housing Market in 2007

MOST OF YOU WILL ASK:

IS IT OVER?

1 SERIES OF EVENTS

HOW DID WE GET HERE? Influx of money to the U.S.A Low interest rates promoted consumption and investment

Speculative demand required more funding

Subprime exposure magnified defaults

Easy credit encouraged investing in housing market

Housing Prices soared

HOW DID WE GET HERE? Investors forced to sell at lower prices to cut losses

Housing prices fell

Flood of assets lowered their values

Collapse and Bankruptcy; Stock market crash

Forced to raise capital

LOSS OF WEALTH = Economic Slowdown

Financial institutions reported write downs and record losses

REAL ECONOMY ASSET PRICES GO DOWN

BAD LOANS SOARED

CREDIT MARKET TIGHTENS

CREDIT MARKETS AFFECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RISES

BUSINESS EXPANSION HALTS

LIQUIDITY SQUEEZE

REAL ECONOMY AFFECTED CONSUMER SPENDING AND INVESTMENT SLOWS

COMPANIES REPORT LOWER INCOME

RECESSION

EQUITY VALUATIONS FALL

2 VICIOUS CYCLE

THE VICIOUS CYCLE BANK WRITEDOWNS AND LOSSES MORE DEBT DEFAULT

CREDIT CRUNCH

FORECLOSURES / BANKRUPTCIES

HEALTHY COMPANIES CANNOT SECURE FUNDING

LESS CONSUMPTION, LESS INVESTMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT

3 GOVERNMENT ACTIONS

IDEAL SCENARIO TO SOLVE THE CRISIS: LOWER WRITEDOWNS

ASSET PRICES STABILIZE

ACTION

CREDIT MARKETS STABILIZE CREDIT MARKET LOOSENS

LENDING RESUMES

BORROWING NEEDS LESSEN

REAL ECONOMY STARTS TO PICK UP.. CONSUMER SPENDING AND INVESTMENT STARTS TO PICK-UP

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES

RECOVERY

HIGHER EQUITY VALUATIONS

LINES OF DEFENSE FIRST LINE OF DEFENSE Accommodative monetary policies SECOND LINE OF DEFENSE Fiscal stimulus THIRD LINE OF DEFENSE Direct interventions (i.e. takeover of institutions) The key is limiting moral hazard while safeguarding financial stability

AGGRESSIVE ACTION IS NECESSARY! Measures to AID the US Economy

LIQUIDITY

SOLVENCY

ECONOMY

DEPOSIT INSURANCE

BAIL OUT / RESCUE PLANS

ACCOMODATIVE MONETARY POLICIES

CENTRAL BANK LIQUIDITY FACILITIES

ASSET PURCHASE SCHEMES

FISCAL STIMULUS

RECOVERY

How will it affect the US Economy? GOVERNMENT ACTIONS …will help normalize the CREDIT MARKETS

Provide access to funds

…will stimulate the REAL ECONOMY

More consumption, more investments, more business activity

…will increase optimism in EQUITY MARKETS

Corporate profits to increase, stock prices to rise

WHY IS FEAR STILL HERE?
CHANGE comes SLOWLY
Negative news breeds and feeds FEAR

4 ECONOMIC PICTURE

MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK To understand financial markets, these are the indicators to look at:

Market

Indicator

Economic Indicator

Gross Domestic Product

Goods Market

Inflation Rate

Funding Market

Interest Rate

External Market

Foreign Exchange Rate

External Market (portfolio)

Stock Market

Philippines : Today POSITIVE

NEGATIVE

Strong OFW Remittance Inflow

Limited stimulus

Build-up of international reserves

Weak fiscal revenue structure

Flexible Foreign Exchange Policies

Weakening export performance

Solid telecom infrastructure

Political / Social Tension

22 | Jonathan L. Ravelas

g9 De 7 c9 Ap 7 r-9 Au 8 g9 De 8 c9 Ap 8 r-9 Au 9 g9 De 9 c9 Ap 9 r-0 Au 0 g0 De 0 c0 Ap 0 r-0 Au 1 g0 De 1 c0 Ap 1 r-0 Au 2 g0 De 2 c0 Ap 2 r-0 Au 3 g0 De 3 c0 Ap 3 r-0 Au 4 g0 De 4 c0 Ap 4 r-0 Au 5 g0 De 5 c0 Ap 5 r-0 Au 6 g0 De 6 c0 Ap 6 r-0 Au 7 g0 De 7 c0 Ap 7 r-0 Au 8 g0 De 8 c08

Au

OFW Remittances 1600 60

1400 55

1200 50

1000 45

800 40

600 35

400 30

200 25

0 20

OFW Remittances

23 | Jonathan L. Ravelas USD/PhP

Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

Steady flow of remittances helps cushion the currency’s vulnerability

Philippines : Today POSITIVE

NEGATIVE

Strong OFW Remittance Inflow

Limited stimulus

Build-up of international reserves

Weak fiscal revenue structure

Flexible Foreign Exchange Policies

Weakening export performance

Solid telecom infrastructure

Political / Social Tension

24 | Jonathan L. Ravelas

Then and Now 1997

2007

2008

2009F

2010F

GDP (annual variation in %)

5.20

7.30

4.60

5.30

5.30

Unemployment (%)

7.90

7.30

8.10

7.80

7.77

Fiscal balance (% of GDP)

0.10

(0.20)

(1.00)

(2.00)

(1.10)

Interest Rate (benchmark in %, EOP)

17.70

3.70

5.80

5.02

4.95

Exchange Rate (vs. US$, EOP

39.98

41.25

47.52

48.50

45.74

Int. Reserves (months of imports)

2.90

7.00

7.20

7.61

8.04

External Debt (% of GDP)

52.20

38.10

34.50

31.48

30.70

Source: BSP, BDO

We are in BETTER SHAPE now than in 1997 during the Asian Crisis! | Jonathan L. Ravelas

Philippines : Today POSITIVE

NEGATIVE

Strong OFW Remittance Inflow

Limited stimulus

Build-up of international reserves

Weak fiscal revenue structure

Flexible Foreign Exchange Policies

Weakening export performance

Solid telecom infrastructure

Political / Social Tension

26 | Jonathan L. Ravelas

Philippine Economic Resiliency Plan COST

SOURCE

PhP 160 billion

Increase in the budget

PhP 40 billion

Corporate and individual tax breaks

PhP 100 billion

GOCCs, GFIs, private sector

PhP 30 billion

Temporary additional benefits to GSIS / SSS/ PhilHealth members

Crisis Four Economic Stimulus 2008 GDP Philippines

Indonesia

4.60

6.05

2009F GDP 4.00

3.80

US$ bn

7.0

6.0

% of GDP

Description

4.3

Infrastructure spending, tax breaks, education and other causes (PhP 330 bn)

1.3

Malaysia

5.20

0.80

17.0

9.0

Thailand

2.60

0.40

4.0

1.8

Infrastructure projects and subsidies (IDR 17trn); Tax cuts and concessions (IDR 56.3trn) Fiscal spending, Guaranteed funds for corporates and SMEs, equity investments, tax breaks Cash handouts, training programmes, tax breaks and public works (THB 116.7bn)

PROJECTIONS 2006

2007

2008

2009F

2010F

World Output

4.00

4.00

2.30

- 0.30

2.60

United States

2.80

2.00

1.30

- 1.60

2.10

Euro Zone

2.80

2.70

0.70

- 1.90

0.90

Latin America

5.40

5.60

4.40

1.10

2.90

Asia

6.00

6.90

4.00

1.80

4.70

Japan

2.00

2.40

- 0.70

- 2.80

0.90

Asia (ex-Japan)

8.80

9.60

6.70

4.70

6.70

China

11.60

13.00

9.00

7.20

8.40

India

9.60

9.00

7.10

5.70

7.00

ASEAN

6.00

6.40

4.50

1.80

4.20

Indonesia

5.50

6.30

6.05

3.80

5.00

Malaysia

5.90

6.30

5.20

0.80

3.90

Philippines

5.40

7.20

4.60

4.00

4.50

Thailand

5.20

4.90

2.60

0.40

3.20

Source: Consensus Forecast, IMF, BDO Forecast

Philippines : Today POSITIVE

NEGATIVE

Strong OFW Remittance Inflow

Limited stimulus

Build-up of international reserves

Weak fiscal revenue structure

Flexible Foreign Exchange Policies

Weakening export performance

Solid telecom infrastructure

Political / Social Tension

30 | Jonathan L. Ravelas

Philippine Fiscal Program

Revenues (Php bn) Expenditures (Php bn) Surplus/(deficit) Deficit (% of GDP)

2007

2008

2009-E

2009-G

1,137

1,202

1,214

1,302

(1,149)

(1,270)

(1,384)

(1,479)

(12)

(68)

(170)

(177)

(0.2%)

(0.9%)

(2.0%)

(2.2%)

BDO

Gov’t

Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

 Government revises ’09 budget deficit to PhP 178 billion (or 2.2% of GDP)

PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS Philippine GDP (YOY)

Headline vs. Core Inflation 14

15

12 10

10 5

8 0

STABLE MACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS 6

-5

4

-10

Headline

2

-15 1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

0 Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Core

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Source: BSP, NSCB and BDO

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Source: BSP, NSCB and BDO

Philippine Trade Balance

Philippine Peso

60

1500

55

1000 50

500 45

0

40

35

-500

30

-1000 25

-1500 1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Source: BSP, NSCB and BDO

20 1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Source: BSP, NSCB and BDO

Circular Flow

Household Income

Consumption

Employment Production Production / Industrial Sector 33 | Jonathan L. Ravelas

Effect of Crisis

Household Income

Consumption

Employment Production Production / Industrial Sector 34 | Jonathan L. Ravelas

Circular Flow

Household Income

Consumption

Employment Production Production / Industrial Sector 35 | Jonathan L. Ravelas

STIMULUS PACKAGE

Sector Watch List

LEAST AFFECTED

MOST AFFECTED

Power and energy

Electronics

Food and beverage

Automobile

Healthcare

Property

Infrastructure

Mining

Business Process Outsourcing

Tourism

PHILIPPINE YIELD CURVE 13 11 9

Remains Stable

7 5 3 3M

6M

1YR

2YR

3YR

5YR

7YR

10YR

20YR

6/13/2006

9.095

9.386

9.377

10.161

10.654

11.039

11.739

12.114

12.777

4/24/2006

4.620

5.340

6.030

6.166

6.221

6.439

6.722

6.882

8.622

12/31/2007

4.1885

4.9088

5.6654

5.7615

5.8569

6.0396

6.1385

6.5827

8.3288

12/24/2008

5.7523

6.0981

6.2142

6.4385

6.5962

6.8135

7.2038

7.4365

10.9673

3/20/2009

4.5554

4.6917

4.8004

5.2117

5.5825

6.3208

7.2421

8.0771

9.6688

SOVEREIGN YIELDS 20

18 VENE 25, 17.50 16

14

12

Competitive ROP Yields

INDON 35, 10.80

10

INDON 16, 9.91

COL 27, 8.41

VIET 16, 9.07

ROP31, 7.77 8

ROP25, 7.83 KOR 25, 7.33

ROP19, 7.29

ROP30, 7.87

ROP16, 6.48 6

MEX 26, 6.84 MALAY 11, 3.62

4

BRAZ 27, 7.29

ROP11, 3.61 CHI 13, 3.76

CHI 11, 2.73

10Y UST's, 2.56

2

0 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

WORLD CURRENCIES 1.81%

Dollar Index -0.22%

British Pound -1.41%

Canadian Dollar

-1.57%

Australian Dollar Philippine peso

-1.57%

Thai Baht

-1.68% -1.96%

Euro

-2.64%

Indian Rupee

-3.03%

New Zealand Dollar -4.01%

Japanese Yen

-4.51%

Swiss Franc

-4.91%

Malaysian Ringgit

-5.18%

Singapore Dollar

-5.88%

Indonesian Rupiah Korean Won -13.00%

-10.81% -11.00%

-9.00%

-7.00%

-5.00%

-3.00%

-1.00%

1.00%

3.00%

USD/PhP: Volatility remains ECONOMIC PICTURE 61.0 60.5 60.0 59.5 59.0 58.5 58.0 57.5 57.0 56.5 56.0 55.5 55.0 54.5 54.0 53.5 53.0 52.5 52.0 51.5 51.0 50.5 50.0 49.5 49.0 48.5 48.0 47.5 47.0 46.5 46.0 45.5 45.0 44.5 44.0 43.5 43.0 42.5 42.0 41.5 41.0 40.5 40.0 39.5 39.0 38.5 38.0 37.5 37.0 36.5

USD/PHP (48.9000, 49.1450, 48.9000, 49.0600, +0.26000)

Scenario 1

(I)

V 56.37

III 56.45 V

55.75

E

C

e

55.16

a

53.65 2 (0.51 %)

54.335 A

b D 53.83 51.88 50.17 iii

50.88 1

47.12 4

B 49.25

45.88 i

44.79

iv 46.45

IV 3 44.70

46.00

ii 43.76

40.25 5 A IV 37.52

61.0 60.5 60.0 59.5 59.0 58.5 58.0 57.5 57.0 56.5 56.0 55.5 55.0 54.5 54.0 53.5 53.0 52.5 52.0 51.5 51.0 50.5 50.0 49.5 49.0 48.5 48.0 47.5 47.0 46.5 46.0 45.5 45.0 44.5 44.0 43.5 43.0 42.5 42.0 41.5 41.0 40.5 40.0 39.5 39.0 38.5 38.0 37.5 37.0 36.5 100

Relative Strength Index (67.8106), Volume (0) 15000

50

10000 5000

0 x1000000

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

WORLD EQUITIES 25.28%

Shanghai Composite Index 8.07%

TWSE Index 4.13%

KOSPI Index Jakarta Composite Index

0.14% -2.08%

PSEi Index

-2.74%

Kuala Lumpur Composite Index

-4.91%

Stock Exchange of Thailand Index

-6.33%

Dubai Financial Market Index SENSEX Index

-7.67% -8.39%

Tadawul All Share Index Straits Times Index

-9.84%

Nikkei 225

-10.31%

Hang Seng Index

-10.85%

S&P 500 FTSE 100 Dow Jones Industrial Average DAX Index -30.00%

-13.20% -13.92% -15.67% -15.94% -20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

PSEi: Volatility remains ECONOMIC PICTURE

Philippine Composite Index (1,818.57, 1,839.82, 1,745.39, 1,833.90, -22.2000) 4000

3820.55 ( 1 ) 5

3900

4000

B 3896.74

3900

3800

3800

3700

3700

3600

3600

3500

3500

2

3400

3400

3300

3300

3200

3200

3100

3100

3000

3000

2900

4

1

2800

B 2632.60

2602.46

2700

2900 2800

A 2874.99

3

ii

2700

2600

2600

2500

2500

2400

2400

2300

i

2300

3

2200

2200 iv

2100 2000

2100 2000

4 2034.49

1900

1900

1800

1800

1479.85 1

1700

1700 iii

1600

1600

C ? (2) 1684.75

1500 1400

1500 1400

1300

1300

1200

1200

1100 1000 900

1100 1000

A 1075.32

2 985.03

C II 978.19

800 700

900 800 700

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Volume (1,008,141,952), Relative Strength Index (33.6180) 15000 10000 5000 x1000000

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Sana wala na yung 1,521, Sana correction lang ito at 2,500 na!

Stocks to watch Investment Summary Philippines Holding Firms SM Utilities EDC FGEN FPH MER Financials BDO BPI MBT Food and Beverage JFC Property ALI MEG SMPH Telecoms TEL

Source: BDO and Bloomberg 44 | Jonathan L. Ravelas

Price 3/20/2009 16:46

EPS 2009F

2009F

186.00

25.64

7.25

2.85 19.00 22.25 87.50

0.40 7.97 6.82 3.38

7.13 2.38 3.26 25.89

21.50 34.00 23.00

2.18 2.22 5.56

9.86 15.32 4.14

44.00

2.44

18.03

5.50 0.48 7.00

0.26 0.11 0.59

21.15 4.36 11.86

1,965.00

223.36

8.80

Market Cap (PhP mn) 113,649.72 42,750.00 15,390.57 13,092.35 97,537.13 49,493.65 91,949.60 41,567.21 44,658.68 71,690.30 9,907.99 87,047.03 370,854.45

Philippine Outlook Summary

Q4 2008

Q1 2009F

Q2 2009F

Q3 2009F

Q4 2009F

Consumer Prices (%, Y-O-Y)

8.00

7.20

6.50

6.30

6.20

Interest Rate (3M, EOP,%)

5.75

4.49

5.20

5.15

5.25

Interest Rate (5Y, EOP,%)

6.81

6.23

8.75

9.00

8.70

Exchange Rate (USD/PhP, EOP)

47.52 48.54 45.00 50.00 48.50

 Economy will stabilize in 1H09 as negative news are in the prices  Currency and economy will recover as economic expectations bottom out.

5 RISKS AND CHALLENGES

Risks and Challenges  Global recession is here!  The Philippines will escape a recession but will experience a marked slowdown.  Global and Local Markets remains Volatile  Once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunities usually arise during crisis years

6 STRATEGY AND SUMMARY

Investment Strategy Asset Class Fixed Income CASH

Fixed Income Peso Denominated

Products

2009F

Cash Deposits Special Deposit Accounts(SDAs), Money Market Funds

Neutral

Fixed Income Treasury Notes, Local corporate bonds

Diversify and shift to floaters from fixed

ROPs, USTs Fixed Income

Trade US$ bond funds

USD$ Denominated

Yield Range: 7% - 12% (UITF, Mutual Funds) Common stocks, stock funds

Equities

Accumulate (UITF, Mutual Funds)

49 | Jonathan L. Ravelas

CAN THE NEWS GET ANY WORSE?

WHERE ARE WE NOW? POINT OF MAXIMUM FINANCIAL RISK Euphoria “Wow, I am Smart.”

“Temporary set back – I’m a long-term investor.”

Anxiety Thrill Denial Fear

Excitement Optimism

WE ARE HERE!

Desperation Panic

Optimism Relief Hope

“How could I have been so wrong?”

Capitulation Depression Despondency

POINT OF MAXIMUM FINANCIAL OPPORTUNITY

WISHFUL THINKING One could only think of the following:


Prices are relatively “CHEAP”


Higher yields (interest rates)
Higher yields (interest rates)


Better dollar value (slightly depreciated)

♦The BEST time to INVEST is when things are at its WORST.

SUMMARY The WORLD ECONOMY is robust enough to weather this global financial storm. The PHILIPPINES is in BETTER shape to face the challenges ahead. These adjustments are good opportunities to ENTER the market. But some RISKS remain.

Thank You for Listening

``the race is not to the swift nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all." Ecclesiastes 9:11

PROJECTIONS 2006

2007

2008

2009F

2010F

World Output

4.00

4.00

2.30

- 0.30

2.60

United States

2.80

2.00

1.30

- 1.60

2.10

Euro Zone

2.80

2.70

0.70

- 1.90

0.90

Latin America

5.40

5.60

4.40

1.10

2.90

Asia

6.00

6.90

4.00

1.80

4.70

Japan

2.00

2.40

- 0.70

- 2.80

0.90

Asia (ex-Japan)

8.80

9.60

6.70

4.70

6.70

China

11.60

13.00

9.00

7.20

8.40

India

9.60

9.00

7.10

5.70

7.00

ASEAN

6.00

6.40

4.50

1.80

4.20

Indonesia

5.50

6.30

6.05

3.80

5.00

Malaysia

5.90

6.30

5.20

0.80

3.90

Philippines

5.40

7.20

4.60

4.00

4.50

Thailand

5.20

4.90

2.60

0.40

3.20

Source: Consensus Forecast, IMF, BDO Forecast

FORECASTS 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009F

99.00

117.60

144.10

168.60

175.34

4.90

5.40

7.30

4.60

4.14

4.50

4.80

5.50

5.80

4.50

4.00

4.40

(8.80)

5.00

11.20

4.20

3.80

7.96

Industrial Production (annual variation in %)

4.25

4.80

7.10

5.00

2.10

3.83

Unemployment (end-of-period, %)

8.10

7.80

7.40

8.10

7.79

7.77

(2.70)

(1.10)

(0.20)

(2.00)

(1.10)

Consumer Prices (end-of-period, annual variation in %)

7.60

6.30

2.80

9.30

6.74

6.80

Interest Rate (short-term benchmark, end-of-period, in %)

5.60

5.30

3.70

5.80

5.02

4.95

Interest Rate (long-term benchmark, end-of-period, in %)

9.57

5.99

6.04

6.81

8.70

7.24

Exchange Rate (against US$, end of period)

53.07

49.13

41.25

47.52

48.50

45.74

Exchange Rate (against US$, average)

55.09

51.31

46.19

44.48

47.63

44.59

Current Account Balance (US$ millions)

2.00

5.30

6.40

3.10

3.00

3.00

Current Account Balance (% of GDP)

2.00

4.50

4.40

1.80

1.71

1.64

Trade Balance (US$ millions)

(7.70)

(6.96)

(7.91)

(11.18)

(10.50)

(11.70)

Exports (US$ millions)

40.30

46.50

49.30

49.00

47.40

49.84

Imports (US$ millions)

48.00

53.30

57.60

62.20

57.90

61.54

Exports (annual variation in %)

3.80

15.60

6.00

(0.60)

(3.27)

5.15

Imports (annual variation in %)

8.00

10.90

8.10

8.10

(6.91)

6.29

18.40

23.00

33.80

37.10

36.70

4.60

5.20

7.00

7.20

7.61

Total External Debt (US$ millions)

54.20

53.40

54.90

58.20

57.10

57.68

Total External Debt (% of GDP)

54.70

45.40

38.10

34.50

34.50

31.48

GDP (US$ billion) GDP (annual variation in %) Private Consumption (annual variation in %) Gross Fixed Investment (annual variation in %)

Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)

International Reserves (US$ millions) International Reserves (months of imports)

(1.00)

2010F 183.23

39.94 7.79