Cmhc Update June 2009

Ottawa’s tight Labour Market moderating in 2009 Employment (‘000s) SA

Unemployment Rate (%) SA

520

10

Unemployment Rate SA Employment SA

500

Average YTD 2009*

9

Employment

400

4

380

3

360

2 9 Ju n0

Ju n0

Ju n0

Ju n0

Ju n0

Ju n0

Ju n0

Ju n0

1 Ju n0

Ju n0

Ju n9

Ju n9

Ju n9

Source: Statistics Canada Seasonally Adjusted 2009* YTD average January to June

8

Unemployment Rate

7

5

6

420

5

=

4

6

3

440

2

Labour Force

0

7

9

460

8

8

7

480

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

0.7%

+ 0.1%

5.3%

with the Public Administration sector hiring the most Average Employment per cent Growth by Sector, SA*** Y/Y % Change 30%

2009* vs 2008*

25%

2009Q2 vs 2009Q1

20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20%

5.4%

4.8%

5.8%

22.0%

47.2%

11.4%

2.9%

Trade

Transportation

-25% Construction

FIRE*

Manufacturing

Source: Statistics Canada * FIRE: Finance, Insurance, Real Estate ** Excludes Health, Trade, and Transportation 200X * YTD average, January to June *** Seasonally adjusted by CMHC

Public Adm inistration

Services**

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

YTD Share of Total

Ottawa’s workforce receives Canada’s highest salaries Annual Average Weekly Earnings, Major CMAs

37%

$1,000

$1,000

$900 $900 $800 $800 $700 $700

$600

$600

2000

$500

2001

Source: Statistics Canada 2009* YTD, to June

2002

2003

2004

Calgary

Edmonton

Ottawa

Montreal

2005

2006 Toronto

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

2007

2008 Vancouver

2009*

MLS® Sales moving closer to long-run trend 15,000

Total MLS Sales 15-Year Average

12,500 10,000

7,967

5,000

8,013

13,200

12,500

13,908

14,003

13,300

7,500

14,739

0.6%

13,457

Annual MLS® Sales

-10%

2,500

Source: OREB (F) Forecast by CMHC YTD to June

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

TD Y 20 09

TD Y 20 08

F 20 10

F 20 09

20 08

20 07

20 06

20 05

20 04

0

As Supply stabilizes and Demand picks up… 2,200

2,200

2,000

2,000

1,800

1,800

New Listings SA* 1,600

1,600

1,400

1,400

Sales SA*

1,200

1,200

1,000

1,000

800

2004

800

2005

2006

2007

2008

Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board 2009* - to June * Trend and seasonal adjustment by CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

2009*

…the Resale Market temperature recovers MLS® Average Price, SA*

MLS® Sales-to-New Listings (SNL) Ratio, SA*

1.00

$310,000

Sales-to-New Listings (SNL) Ratio SA*, Ottawa

Average MLS© Price, SA*

$280,000

0.80 Seller’s Market

“HOT” Balanced Market “WARM”

$250,000

0.60 $220,000

0.40 $190,000

Buyer’s Market

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

09 * 20

08 20

07 20

06 20

05 20

04 20

03 20

20

01 20

20

19

19

Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board * Seasonally Adjusted by CMHC 2009* YTD to June

02

$130,000 00

0.00 99

$160,000

98

“COOL” 0.20

lifting up the speed of inventory turnover… MLS® Sales-to-Active (SAL)SA* Ratio, SA* Sales-to-Active ListingsListings (SAL) Ratio

40% Seller’s Market

30%

20%

Balanced Market

10%

Buyer’s Market

2 20 004 04 M 20 05 04 M 09 2 20 005 05 M 20 05 05 M 09 2 20 006 06 M 20 05 06 M 09 2 20 007 07 M 20 05 07 M 09 2 20 008 08 M 20 05 08 M 09 20 20 09* 09 M 20 05 09 M 09

0%

Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board * Seasonally Adjusted by CMHC 2009* YTD to June CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Balanced Market will Moderate Price Growth Annual MLS® Price ($) - Ottawa

Annual Average Sales/New Listings

$290,483

$300,000

0.8

$273,058

$275,000

0.7

$257,481 $248,358

$250,000 $225,000

$289,000

$238,152

0.6

$219,713 0.5

$200,000

Avg MLS® Price

Sales/New Listings

Source: OREB (F) Forecast by CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

20 09 F

20 08

20 07

20 06

0.3 20 05

$150,000 20 04

0.4

20 03

$175,000

ANNUAL SUMMARY: MLS® Sales and Average Price Growth

2008

% Change (07-08)

OTTAWA MLS® Sales

2006

2007

$307

$326

6.2%

Single-Detached

8,113

Bungalow

$266

$283

6.4%

Bungalow

Two-Storey

$346

$367

6.1%

Two-Storey

Row

$244

$259

6.1%

Row

Semi-detached

$269

$284

5.6%

Semi-detached

Condo Apartment

$219

$237

8.0%

Condo Row

$176

$189

7.5%

$273

$290

6.4%

OTTAWA MLS® Average Price

2007

Single-Detached

2008

% Change (07-08)

% Change (06-08)

8,456

7,986

-5.6%

-1.6%

2,352

2,502

2,341

-6.4%

-0.5%

3,942

4,085

3,932

-3.7%

-0.3%

1,934

2,107

1,955

-7.2%

1.1%

843

907

845

-6.8%

0.2%

Condo Apartment 1,350

1,515

1,392

-8.1%

3.1%

Condo Row

1,558

1,526

-2.1%

1.7%

14,003 14,739 13,908

-5.6%

-0.7%

1,501

Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board

TOTAL

TOTAL

Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board Average price in thousands, rounded CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

YTD SUMMARY: MLS® Sales and Average Price Growth

2008*

2009*

% Change (08*-09*)

$361,248

$364,248

0.8%

Bungalow

$296,907

$296,904

4.7%

Two-Storey

$374,342

$374,342

1.7%

Row

$260,912

$270,120

3.5%

Row

Semi-detached

$280,624

$292,032

4.1%

Condo Apartment

$241,883

$244,676

Condo Row

$187,729 $302,789

OTTAWA ® MLS Average Price

Single-Detached

TOTAL

Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board * Year-to-Date, to June

OTTAWA MLS® Sales

2008*

2009*

% Change (08*-09*)

Single-Detached

4,625

4,469

-3.4%

Bungalow

1,331

1,281

-3.8%

Two-Storey

2,347

2,279

-2.9%

1,123

1,306

16.3%

Semi-detached

473

531

12.3%

1.2%

Condo Apartment

775

761

-1.8%

$198,888

5.9%

Condo Row

839

663

-21.0%

$310,646

2.6%

7,849

7,750

-1.3%

TOTAL

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

REGIONAL RESALE SUB-MARKETS

Downtown West End

Nepean

East End

Orléans

Southeast

Barrhaven

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

ANNUAL SUMMARY: MLS® Sales and Average Price Growth MLS® Price by sub-market RANKING

2007

2008

% Chg.

1. Orleans

$263

$283

7.9%

2. East End

$227

$245

7.7%

3. Downtown

$382

4. Southeast

$285

$411 $305

MLS® Sales by Sub-market RANKING

2006

2007

2008

% Chg. (07-08)

% Chg. (06-08)

1. Stittsville

432

484

467

-3.5%

8.1%

2. Orleans

1,839

1,884

1,898

0.7%

3.2%

3. Barrhaven

918

1,020

941

-7.7%

2.5%

4. West End

1,278

1,406

1,295

-7.9%

1.3%

5. Kanata

1,135

1,187

1,129

-4.9%

-0.5%

6. Southeast

1,834

1,947

1,779

-8.6%

-3.0%

7. Nepean

1,017

1,099

959

-12.7%

-5.7%

7.6% 7.1%

5. West End

$302

$323

7.0%

6. Stittsville

$312

$334

6.9%

7. Barrhaven

$275

$292

6.4%

8. Kanata

$274

$289

5.6%

8. Downtown

996

1,054

929

-11.9%

-6.7%

9. Nepean

$272

$279

2.8%

9. East End

1,000

1,012

900

-11.1%

-10.0%

URBAN TOTAL

$285

$304

6.5%

URBAN TOTAL

10,449

11,093

10,297

-7.2%

-1.4%

Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board Average price in thousands, rounded

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

YTD SUMMARY: MLS® Sales and Average Price Growth MLS® Price by sub-market

MLS® Sales by sub-market

RANKING

2008 YTD

2009 YTD

% Chg. (08-09)

RANKING

2008 YTD

2009 YTD

% Chg. (08-09)

1. East End

$241,687

$265,752

10.0%

1. Barrhaven

540

683

26.5%

2. Nepean

$281,849

$296,502

5.2%

2. East End

500

570

14.0%

3. West End

$324,344

$337,813

4.2%

3. Stittsville

288

324

12.5%

4. Kanata

$288,985

$293,803

1.7%

4. West End

726

793

9.2%

5. Southeast

$309,130

$311,648

0.8%

5. Kanata

654

663

1.4%

6. Downtown

$410,911

$413,912

0.7%

6. Orleans

1,151

1,163

1.0%

7. Barrhaven

$298,314

$298,690

0.1%

7. Nepean

533

531

-0.4%

8. Orleans

$289,680

$288,260

-0.5%

8. Southeast

1,012

994

-1.8%

9. Stittsville

$334,529

$325,986

-2.6%

9. Downtown

555

514

-7.4%

URBAN TOTAL

$306,644

$310,986

1.4%

URBAN TOTAL

5,959

6,235

4.6%

Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board YTD – to June

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Share of Multiple Starts expected to increase as New Home Market moderates Number of Housing Starts by Type

9,000 8,000

Singles

7,000

Multiples

6,000

3,500 2,000 3,250 2,125 4,042 2,956 3,533 2,973

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000

19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 F 20 10 F

19 88

0

Source: CMHC (F) Forecast by CMHC

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Apartment Vacancy Rate will decrease further in 2009 and 2010 Vacancy Rate and 7-Year Average (%)

Average Rent, 2-Bdr Apartments

4

$1,065

3.5

$1,050

$1,025 $995

3

$1,000

$961 $941

2.5 2

2.3

$1,100

$950 $900 2.3

1.5

$850

1

$800

1.4

0.5

1.0

0.8

0

$750 $700

2000

2001

2002

2003

Vacancy Rate

Source: CMHC (f) Forecast by CMHC

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009f

Average Rent, 2-Bdr Apt

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

2010f

FORECAST SUMMARY

2006

2007

2008

2009F

483

488

500

500

6.66%

7.07%

7.06%

5.64%

14,003

14,739

13,908

12,500

$257,481

$273,058

$290,483

$289,000

Single-Family Starts

2,479

2,973

2,956

2,125

Multi-Family Starts

3,395

3,533

4,042

3,250

$385,729

$396,762

$408,991

$411,000

Economy Employed (‘000) Mortgage Rate 5 years

Resale Market Total Sales Average Price all units

New Home Market

Single Average Price

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION