Clase 12 Oct.xlsx
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Hoja1 SEMANA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
DEMANDA 17 132 43 40 127 17 96 138 64 56 122 143 57 70 79 115 108 48 67 85 66 48 22 91 61 74 82 115 19 132 30 93 41 64 77 26 37 39
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2
-0.22
Página 1
Hoja1
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Página 2
2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38
3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37
Hoja1
2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38
3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36
Página 3
Hoja2 SEMANA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 TOTAL
DEMANDA 17 132 43 40 127 17 96 138 64 56 122 143 57 70 79 115 108 48 67 85 66 48 22 91 61 74 82 115 19 132 30 93 41 64 77 26 37 39 2741
PRONOSTICO
ERROR
81.20 79.47 75.88 69.73 72.16 70.88 71.24 72.47 77.32 70.67 77.66 72.23 74.60 70.76 69.99 70.79 65.68 62.41
-15.20 -31.47 -53.88 21.27 -11.16 3.12 10.76 42.53 -58.32 61.33 -47.66 20.77 -33.60 -6.76 7.01 -44.79 -28.68 -23.41
ERROR ABS ERROR CUADR
Página 4
15.20 31.47 53.88 21.27 11.16 3.12 10.76 42.53 58.32 61.33 47.66 20.77 33.60 6.76 7.01 44.79 28.68 23.41 28.98 MAD
231.04 990.10 2902.61 452.45 124.46 9.71 115.80 1809.10 3401.13 3761.92 2271.78 431.59 1128.66 45.73 49.13 2006.21 822.57 547.95 1172.33 ECM
APE
0.23 0.66 2.45 0.23 0.18 0.04 0.13 0.37 3.07 0.46 1.59 0.22 0.82 0.11 0.09 1.72 0.78 0.60 76.42% MAPE
Hoja2 APE' ALPHA
0.11409013
0.19 0.40 0.71 0.31 0.15 0.04 0.15 0.59 0.75 0.87 0.61 0.29 0.45 0.10 0.10 0.63 0.44 0.38 39.72% MAPE'
Página 5
Hoja2_2 SEMANA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 TOTAL
DEMANDA 17 132 43 40 127 17 96 138 64 56 122 143 57 70 79 115 108 48 67 85 66 48 22 91 61 74 82 115 19 132 30 93 41 64 77 26 37 39 2741
PRONOSTICO
ERROR
77.00 66.50 66.50 55.25 56.75 55.50 62.00 77.00 83.00 72.50 87.00 74.00 68.50 74.00 57.00 68.75 52.00 51.00
-11.00 -18.50 -44.50 35.75 4.25 18.50 20.00 38.00 -64.00 59.50 -57.00 19.00 -27.50 -10.00 20.00 -42.75 -15.00 -12.00
ERROR ABS ERROR CUADR
Página 6
11.00 18.50 44.50 35.75 4.25 18.50 20.00 38.00 64.00 59.50 57.00 19.00 27.50 10.00 20.00 42.75 15.00 12.00 28.74 MAD
121.00 342.25 1980.25 1278.06 18.06 342.25 400.00 1444.00 4096.00 3540.25 3249.00 361.00 756.25 100.00 400.00 1827.56 225.00 144.00 1145.83 ECM
APE
0.17 0.39 2.02 0.39 0.07 0.25 0.24 0.33 3.37 0.45 1.90 0.20 0.67 0.16 0.26 1.64 0.41 0.31 73.50% MAPE
Hoja2_2 APE'
0.14 0.28 0.67 0.65 0.07 0.33 0.32 0.49 0.77 0.82 0.66 0.26 0.40 0.14 0.35 0.62 0.29 0.24 41.66% MAPE'
ALPHA
0.11409013
N 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
ECM 1269.81 1321.38 1145.83 1203.58 1227.91 1239.84 1195.26 1219.98 1227.33 1230.60 1237.89 1205.81 1206.66 1204.62 1165.38 1182.03 1182.29 1156.71 1159.14
MIN
1145.83
Página 7
COMBINATION SEMANA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 TOTAL
DEMANDA 17 132 43 40 127 17 96 138 64 56 122 143 57 70 79 115 108 48 67 85 66 48 22 91 61 74 82 115 19 132 30 93 41 64 77 26 37 39 2741
PRONOSTICO
ERROR
79.10 72.98 71.19 62.49 64.45 63.19 66.62 74.73 80.16 71.58 82.33 73.11 71.55 72.38 63.50 69.77 58.84 56.70
-13.10 -24.98 -49.19 28.51 -3.45 10.81 15.38 40.27 -61.16 60.42 -52.33 19.89 -30.55 -8.38 13.50 -43.77 -21.84 -17.70
ERROR ABS ERROR CUADR
Página 8
13.10 24.98 49.19 28.51 3.45 10.81 15.38 40.27 61.16 60.42 52.33 19.89 30.55 8.38 13.50 43.77 21.84 17.70 28.62 MAD
171.61 624.15 2419.45 812.84 11.92 116.82 236.56 1621.41 3740.50 3650.24 2738.60 395.51 933.16 70.25 182.37 1915.84 477.00 313.44 1135.09 ECM
APE
0.20 0.52 2.24 0.31 0.06 0.15 0.19 0.35 3.22 0.46 1.74 0.21 0.75 0.13 0.18 1.68 0.59 0.45 74.57% MAPE
COMBINATION APE' ALPHA
0.11409013
0.17 0.34 0.69 0.46 0.05 0.17 0.23 0.54 0.76 0.84 0.64 0.27 0.43 0.12 0.21 0.63 0.37 0.31 40.17% MAPE'
Página 9
COMBINATION_2 SEMANA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 TOTAL
DEMANDA 17 132 43 40 127 17 96 138 64 56 122 143 57 70 79 115 108 48 67 85 66 48 22 91 61 74 82 115 19 132 30 93 41 64 77 26 37 39 2741
PRONOSTICO
ERROR
79.10 72.98 71.19 62.49 64.45 63.19 66.62 74.73 80.16 71.58 82.33 73.11 71.55 72.38 63.50 69.77 58.84 56.70
-13.10 -24.98 -49.19 28.51 -3.45 10.81 15.38 40.27 -61.16 60.42 -52.33 19.89 -30.55 -8.38 13.50 -43.77 -21.84 -17.70
ERROR ABS ERROR CUADR
Página 10
13.10 24.98 49.19 28.51 3.45 10.81 15.38 40.27 61.16 60.42 52.33 19.89 30.55 8.38 13.50 43.77 21.84 17.70 28.62 MAD
171.61 624.15 2419.45 812.84 11.92 116.82 236.56 1621.41 3740.50 3650.24 2738.60 395.51 933.16 70.25 182.37 1915.84 477.00 313.44 1135.09 ECM
APE
0.20 0.52 2.24 0.31 0.06 0.15 0.19 0.35 3.22 0.46 1.74 0.21 0.75 0.13 0.18 1.68 0.59 0.45 74.57% MAPE
COMBINATION_2 APE' ALPHA
0.11409013
a1 a2 Total
0.5 0.5 1
0.17 0.34 0.69 0.46 0.05 0.17 0.23 0.54 0.76 0.84 0.64 0.27 0.43 0.12 0.21 0.63 0.37 0.31 40.17% MAPE'
Página 11
DEMANDA 17 132 43 40 127 17 96 138 64 56 122 143 57 70 79 115 108 48 67 85 66 48 22 91 61 74 82 115 19 132 30 93 41 64 77 26 37 39
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2
-0.22
Página 1
Hoja1
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Página 2
2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38
3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37
Hoja1
2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38
3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36
Página 3
Hoja2 SEMANA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 TOTAL
DEMANDA 17 132 43 40 127 17 96 138 64 56 122 143 57 70 79 115 108 48 67 85 66 48 22 91 61 74 82 115 19 132 30 93 41 64 77 26 37 39 2741
PRONOSTICO
ERROR
81.20 79.47 75.88 69.73 72.16 70.88 71.24 72.47 77.32 70.67 77.66 72.23 74.60 70.76 69.99 70.79 65.68 62.41
-15.20 -31.47 -53.88 21.27 -11.16 3.12 10.76 42.53 -58.32 61.33 -47.66 20.77 -33.60 -6.76 7.01 -44.79 -28.68 -23.41
ERROR ABS ERROR CUADR
Página 4
15.20 31.47 53.88 21.27 11.16 3.12 10.76 42.53 58.32 61.33 47.66 20.77 33.60 6.76 7.01 44.79 28.68 23.41 28.98 MAD
231.04 990.10 2902.61 452.45 124.46 9.71 115.80 1809.10 3401.13 3761.92 2271.78 431.59 1128.66 45.73 49.13 2006.21 822.57 547.95 1172.33 ECM
APE
0.23 0.66 2.45 0.23 0.18 0.04 0.13 0.37 3.07 0.46 1.59 0.22 0.82 0.11 0.09 1.72 0.78 0.60 76.42% MAPE
Hoja2 APE' ALPHA
0.11409013
0.19 0.40 0.71 0.31 0.15 0.04 0.15 0.59 0.75 0.87 0.61 0.29 0.45 0.10 0.10 0.63 0.44 0.38 39.72% MAPE'
Página 5
Hoja2_2 SEMANA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 TOTAL
DEMANDA 17 132 43 40 127 17 96 138 64 56 122 143 57 70 79 115 108 48 67 85 66 48 22 91 61 74 82 115 19 132 30 93 41 64 77 26 37 39 2741
PRONOSTICO
ERROR
77.00 66.50 66.50 55.25 56.75 55.50 62.00 77.00 83.00 72.50 87.00 74.00 68.50 74.00 57.00 68.75 52.00 51.00
-11.00 -18.50 -44.50 35.75 4.25 18.50 20.00 38.00 -64.00 59.50 -57.00 19.00 -27.50 -10.00 20.00 -42.75 -15.00 -12.00
ERROR ABS ERROR CUADR
Página 6
11.00 18.50 44.50 35.75 4.25 18.50 20.00 38.00 64.00 59.50 57.00 19.00 27.50 10.00 20.00 42.75 15.00 12.00 28.74 MAD
121.00 342.25 1980.25 1278.06 18.06 342.25 400.00 1444.00 4096.00 3540.25 3249.00 361.00 756.25 100.00 400.00 1827.56 225.00 144.00 1145.83 ECM
APE
0.17 0.39 2.02 0.39 0.07 0.25 0.24 0.33 3.37 0.45 1.90 0.20 0.67 0.16 0.26 1.64 0.41 0.31 73.50% MAPE
Hoja2_2 APE'
0.14 0.28 0.67 0.65 0.07 0.33 0.32 0.49 0.77 0.82 0.66 0.26 0.40 0.14 0.35 0.62 0.29 0.24 41.66% MAPE'
ALPHA
0.11409013
N 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
ECM 1269.81 1321.38 1145.83 1203.58 1227.91 1239.84 1195.26 1219.98 1227.33 1230.60 1237.89 1205.81 1206.66 1204.62 1165.38 1182.03 1182.29 1156.71 1159.14
MIN
1145.83
Página 7
COMBINATION SEMANA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 TOTAL
DEMANDA 17 132 43 40 127 17 96 138 64 56 122 143 57 70 79 115 108 48 67 85 66 48 22 91 61 74 82 115 19 132 30 93 41 64 77 26 37 39 2741
PRONOSTICO
ERROR
79.10 72.98 71.19 62.49 64.45 63.19 66.62 74.73 80.16 71.58 82.33 73.11 71.55 72.38 63.50 69.77 58.84 56.70
-13.10 -24.98 -49.19 28.51 -3.45 10.81 15.38 40.27 -61.16 60.42 -52.33 19.89 -30.55 -8.38 13.50 -43.77 -21.84 -17.70
ERROR ABS ERROR CUADR
Página 8
13.10 24.98 49.19 28.51 3.45 10.81 15.38 40.27 61.16 60.42 52.33 19.89 30.55 8.38 13.50 43.77 21.84 17.70 28.62 MAD
171.61 624.15 2419.45 812.84 11.92 116.82 236.56 1621.41 3740.50 3650.24 2738.60 395.51 933.16 70.25 182.37 1915.84 477.00 313.44 1135.09 ECM
APE
0.20 0.52 2.24 0.31 0.06 0.15 0.19 0.35 3.22 0.46 1.74 0.21 0.75 0.13 0.18 1.68 0.59 0.45 74.57% MAPE
COMBINATION APE' ALPHA
0.11409013
0.17 0.34 0.69 0.46 0.05 0.17 0.23 0.54 0.76 0.84 0.64 0.27 0.43 0.12 0.21 0.63 0.37 0.31 40.17% MAPE'
Página 9
COMBINATION_2 SEMANA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 TOTAL
DEMANDA 17 132 43 40 127 17 96 138 64 56 122 143 57 70 79 115 108 48 67 85 66 48 22 91 61 74 82 115 19 132 30 93 41 64 77 26 37 39 2741
PRONOSTICO
ERROR
79.10 72.98 71.19 62.49 64.45 63.19 66.62 74.73 80.16 71.58 82.33 73.11 71.55 72.38 63.50 69.77 58.84 56.70
-13.10 -24.98 -49.19 28.51 -3.45 10.81 15.38 40.27 -61.16 60.42 -52.33 19.89 -30.55 -8.38 13.50 -43.77 -21.84 -17.70
ERROR ABS ERROR CUADR
Página 10
13.10 24.98 49.19 28.51 3.45 10.81 15.38 40.27 61.16 60.42 52.33 19.89 30.55 8.38 13.50 43.77 21.84 17.70 28.62 MAD
171.61 624.15 2419.45 812.84 11.92 116.82 236.56 1621.41 3740.50 3650.24 2738.60 395.51 933.16 70.25 182.37 1915.84 477.00 313.44 1135.09 ECM
APE
0.20 0.52 2.24 0.31 0.06 0.15 0.19 0.35 3.22 0.46 1.74 0.21 0.75 0.13 0.18 1.68 0.59 0.45 74.57% MAPE
COMBINATION_2 APE' ALPHA
0.11409013
a1 a2 Total
0.5 0.5 1
0.17 0.34 0.69 0.46 0.05 0.17 0.23 0.54 0.76 0.84 0.64 0.27 0.43 0.12 0.21 0.63 0.37 0.31 40.17% MAPE'
Página 11
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