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CALAMITY: MARKETING YOUR WAY OUT OF THIS RECESSION
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Source: Conde Naste Portfolio, January 2009
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
RESULTS 1–10 OF ABOUT 22,200,000 FOR RECESSION AND MARKETING
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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
FUNDAMENTAL SOCIETAL SHIFT FROM A CREDIT TO A CONFIDENCE CRISIS SEA CHANGES IN CONSUMER BEHAVIORS COMPANIES MUST CHANGE HOW THEY CONNECT WITH CONSUMERS 4
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
MANAGING FOR AN UPTURN
SUSTAINABLE GROWTH ALIGN BRAND AND BUSINESS STRATEGY ACQUIRE TALENT AND QUALITY DO MORE WITH LESS SHARPEN MESSAGING AND ROI RETURN TO YOUR CORE FACE YOUR CUSTOMER
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Source: Y&R Strategy, HBR: Anthony T Jan, John Quelch
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
HALF OF ALL GLOBAL WEALTH HAS EVAPORATED
$36 TRILLION DOLLAR LOSS WORLDWIDE S&P 500 DECLINED 64.4% FROM 2000 45% OF AMERICAN WEALTH FROM LOSS OF EQUITY AND HOUSING VALUES AVERAGE RECESSION IS 6-12 MONTHS. THIS IS A MARATHON 6
Source: Bloomberg, Iconoculture March 2009
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
THE NEW FEAR ECONOMY
UNEMPLOYMENT
NATIONAL DEBT
HOUSING VALUES
DETROIT CURRENCY VALUATION ?
EQUITY MARKETS INTEREST RATES ? COMMODITY PRICES IN(STAG)FLATION ?
BANK LENDING FACTORY & HOUSING STARTS CREDIT CARD EXPOSURE
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BAILOUT ?
PROTECTIONISM ?
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 7
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: LOWEST SINCE 1967 (INCEPTION)
EXCLUDING 2003 / IRAQ WAR PERIOD
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Source: ABC News
THE LARGEST U.S. BUDGET DEFICIT POST WWII
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Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
VISUALIZING THE BAILOUT
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Source: The Atlantic
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
FRACTURED FAITH IN THE AMERICAN DREAM
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HOUSING VALUES CONTINUE TO DECLINE ACROSS THE U.S.
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Source: “Irrational Exuberance”, 2nd edition, 2006, by Robert J. Schiller
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
AMERICAN’S HOMES NO LONGER PERSONAL LINES OF CREDIT
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Source:Us Department of Housing and Labor, 2009
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
WHILE THE CREDIT CRISIS HAS HALTED HOUSING STARTS
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Source: www.calculatedriskblog.com
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
INTO THE GREAT WIDE OPEN
UNEMPLOYMENT 8.1%; HIGHEST IN TWENTY-FIVE YEARS THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH OF 600,000 JOBS LOST
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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
THIS PERIOD MARKED BY MOST JOB LOSSES, WEAKEST RECOVERY
16 Source: Change in Nonfarm Pay rolls, Reported Monthly, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S Dept of Labor
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY RECESSION
MILLIONAIRES HAVE LOST ONETHIRD OF THEIR NET WORTH.
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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
AFFLUENT MORTGAGE RATE DEFAULTS
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Source: LPS Applied Analytics
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
ONE STORY IN THE AMERICAN NIGHTMARE
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Source:New York Times
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
A GROWING REALITY: A MORTGAGE IS FOREVER
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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
MASLOW UPENDED: MARKETING MUST MOVE FROM PASSION TO COMPASSION
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Source: American Progress.org February 2009
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
YES WE CAN?
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Source: Pew Research Center
THE ONLY CERTAINTY IS UNCERTAINTY
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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
“WE HAVE A STRONG CAPITAL POSITION”
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TECTONIC SHIFTS IN CONSUMERISM: DECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE
TAXPAYERS ARE NOW SHAREHOLDERS
LACK OF PERMANENCE
TRUST
FAILURE OF REGULATORS EGREGIOUS AND CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR 25
LACK OF LEADERSHIP AND RESPONSIBILITY
SELFISHNESS AND COLLUSION
PROLONGED CONFLICTS AND PARTISANSHIP
LACK OF LEADERSHIP AND RESPONSIBILITY
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SELFISHNESS AND COLLUSION
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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
PROLONGED CONFLICTS AND PARTISANSHIP
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EGREGIOUS AND CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR
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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
FAILURE OF REGULATORS
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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
TAXPAYERS ARE NOW SHAREHOLDERS
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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
DECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE
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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
LACK OF PERMANENCE
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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
THE NEW CULTURAL FAULT LINE
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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
WE EXAMINED 15 YEARS OF DATA FROM BRANDASSET VALUATOR®
WORLD’S LARGEST 40,000 BRANDS QUARTERLY U.S. DATABASE OF PANEL OF BRANDS 215 STUDIES 15,000+ RESPONDENTS OVER 500,00 ACROSS 44 CONSUMERS COUNTRIES 72 DIFFERENT BRAND METRICS 36
BRANDS NOW ACCOUNT FOR 30% OF THE VALUE OF THE S&P 500
Source: Millward Brown Optimor 2007 30 37
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
THE 250 MOST VALUABLE GLOBAL BRANDS ARE $2.197 TRILLION DOLLARS WHICH EXCEEDS THE GDP OF FRANCE
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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
BRAND ESTEEM AND REGARD IS DOWN 12% BRAND AWARENESS HAS DECLINED BY 20% PERCEPTIONS OF BRAND QUALITY HAS ERODED 24% TRUST IN BRANDS HAS DECLINED BY 50%
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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
TRUST IS DESIRABLE, BUT IT HASN’T DIFFERENTIATED
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Source:BrandAsset Valuator 1993-2007
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
IN THE PAST QUARTER, A ‘TRUST VIRUS’ INFECTED MANY CATEGORIES
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Base: BAV USA Q4 2007, Q4 2008; All Adults
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
“I SCREWED UP” 42
Source: Barack Obama Press Conference, February 2009
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
CONSUMERS ARE BEGINNING TO OWN THEIR PROBLEMS
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Source: Time Magazine
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
THEY REALIZE THERE’S A LONG, HARD SLOG AHEAD
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Source: Reinhart and Rogoff, The Aftermath of Financial Crises, 2009
SAVINGS RATE HAS RISEN IN PAST FIVE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS
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Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
Q4 SPENDING FELL 3.7% FROM Q3 STEEPEST DECLINE IN 62 YEARS. $3 TRILLION IN SPENDING STOPPED IN Q4, WAS SUSTAINING US GDP
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Source: www.calculatedriskblog.com
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
MOST POPULAR TAG’S ABOUT CONSUMER BEHAVIOR
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Source: Del.icio.us
REATE COMPETITIVE DVANTAGE NOW
EVERY RECESSION ENDS...EVENTUALLY CONSUMERS MOVING FROM ANXIETY TO ACTION HOW YOU ACT NOW WILL SHAPE YOUR FUTURE PERFORMANCE 48 39
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
THE NEW RULES OF ‘POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM’
NEW CULTURAL VALUES NEW CONSUMER BEHAVIORS NEW MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES 49
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #1 CULTURAL VALUE
= INDESTRUCTIBLE SPIRIT
CONSUMER STRATEGY = DURABLE LIVING MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE
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=
BRAND THAT LASTS
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
DURABLE LIVING
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CULTURAL VALUE = INDESTRUCTIBLE SPIRIT CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DURABLE LIVING MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = BRAND THAT LASTS
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
BRAND THAT LASTS
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CULTURAL VALUE = INDESTRUCTIBLE SPIRIT CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DURABLE LIVING MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = BRAND THAT LASTS
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #2 CULTURAL VALUE
=
CONSUMER STRATEGY =
MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE
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=
ETHICS AND FAIR PLAY EMPATHY AND RESPECT VALUE AND VALUES
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
CULTURAL VALUE = ETHICS AND FAIR PLAY CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = R-E-S-P-E-C-T
EMPATHY AND RESPECT
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MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = VALUE AND VALUES
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
CULTURAL VALUE = ETHICS AND FAIR PLAY CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = R-E-S-P-E-C-T
VALUE AND VALUES
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MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = VALUE AND VALUES
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #3 CULTURAL VALUE
=
CONSUMER STRATEGY =
MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE
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=
LIQUID LIFE
DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTION DOLLARS AND SENSE
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTION
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CULTURAL VALUE=LIQUID LIFE CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTION MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= DOLLARS AND SENSE
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
DOLLARS AND SENSE
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CULTURAL VALUE=LIQUID LIFE CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTION MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= DOLLARS AND SENSE
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #4 CULTURAL VALUE
=
CONSUMER STRATEGY =
MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE
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=
RETURN TO THE FOLD COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISM COMMUNITY ORGANIZER
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISM
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CULTURAL VALUE = RETURN TO THE FOLD CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISM MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= COMMUNITY ORGANIZER
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
COMMUNITY ORGANIZER
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CULTURAL VALUE = RETURN TO THE FOLD CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISM MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= COMMUNITY ORGANIZER
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
THE CHINESE CHARACTER FOR CRISIS ALSO MEANS OPPORTUNITY
BAD COMPANIES ARE DESTROYED BY CRISIS. GOOD COMPANIES SURVIVE THEM. GREAT COMPANIES ARE IMPROVED BY THEM.” —ANDY GROVE 64
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
THE SEARCH ENGINE ISN’T YOU… T’S YOUR CONSUMER
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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
FROM SEARCH OPTIMIZATION TO BRAND OPTIMIZATION
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Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
RECESSION-PROOF YOUR BRAND JOIN THE CONVERSATION AT THEBRANDBUBBLE.COM ON FACEBOOK OR TWITTER @JOHNGERZEMA
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