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BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
A Proposal relating to
New Markets for Copper prepared for the
European Copper Institute by
Bloomsbury Minerals Economics September 28th 2009
1
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
Bloomsbury Minerals Economics Ltd., 5 Warren Mews London W1T 6AP England Telephone: Mobile: +44 (0)7825178614
Office:
+44(0)2075298910 Email:
[email protected]
Contact:
Paul Dewison
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
s
A Proposal relating to
New Markets for Copper prepared for the
European Copper Institute by
Bloomsbury Minerals Economics BACKGROUND The following is based on a request for a Proposal relating to emerging product markets for copper resulting from conversations between Colin Bennett of the ECI and Paul Dewison of Bloomsbury Minerals Economics during September 2009. The purpose of the research is to investigate the markets for copper that are at an early stage of development, identifying the size and potential growth of these markets and, more importantly, what will determine this growth and how can this be influenced by the ECI. The project would be funded out of the European budget of the ECI. As part of its regular programme of work, the ECI collects a great deal of information relating to the emerging product markets for copper. This material includes information concerning the regulatory and economic drivers relating to these markets, and technical and other information relating specifically to them. It is intended that this information and staff expertise within the ECI should be utilised in full during the course of this research exercise, drawing the existing information together with any new information that may be required in order to provide an appraisal of each of the emerging product markets under review in a consistent (and therefore comparable) framework.
OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE The objective of this research project is to investigate the markets for copper that are at an early stage of development, identifying the size and potential growth of these markets and, more importantly, what will determine this growth and how can this be influenced by the ECI. The market areas identified include: 1)
Transport (electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, trains and mass transit systems).
2)
Marine (subsea, desalination etc). 3
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
3)
Energy storage, distributive generation and renewable energy (residential heat pumps, batteries, mass storage by utilities, other storage, fuel cells, solar energy, wind power, other distributive generation, other renewable energy).
4)
Green buildings, residential and commercial (low energy homes, energy management, alternative fuel sources distributive generation and storage, metering, integrated communications, connected / smart appliances, digital homes).
While the scope of this project is global, the main area of focus will be Europe. Inference as to the size, growth and drivers of markets in other parts of the world will be based on common themes and identified differences between Europe and these markets with regard to regulations and other key issues. When assessing the size and growth of emerging markets, some account will be taken of existing market loss as a result of new market development. For example, it may be assumed that each new hybrid car replaces an existing petrol or diesel engine car. Forecasts will be taken out to 2020. While this research is not intended to create a technical paper, due account will be taken of the impact of alternative technical solutions and the impact on copper. This, for example, is a very important issue when considering the developing markets for batteries and energy storage. Coverage will be given to the drivers affecting technical choice, and the likely application range of each technical solution resulting. The “drivers” affecting the choice of technologies creating the emerging markets include the following: 1) regulations, 2) cost to the consumer, 3) manufacturers’ and designers’ preference, 4) macroeconomic and other underlying considerations affecting the size of the market area in which the emerging product market for copper may play a role. Due account will be given to the structure and impact of each of these drivers in each of the markets under consideration. The ECI is able to influence some drivers affecting technology choice, but not others. It may be influence regulations in particular, but obviously not the macroeconomic environment. Taking this into account, specific reference will be made the where are how the ECI may be able to influence emerging market development will be made. There will be a particular focus on the regulatory environment.
METHODOLOGY This project is based on a relatively limited budget, but does have the advantage of a wealth of published material and expertise accessible through the UK office of the ECI. These two facts largely determine the
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
nature of the research process proposed. It is intended that this should be primarily a desk research exercise involving the following: 1)
A review of documents in the hands of the ECI.
2)
Consultation with members of the members of the ECI team allocated to this project for each subject area.
3)
Accessing documents in the public domain that are not already in the hands of the ECI, especially as they relate to regulations affecting technology choice.
4) Telephone discussion with manufacturers and other key contacts to supplement the results of the paper-based investigation and to gain new insight. 5) Results analysis and report preparation. It is intended that the work as specified above should be carried out over a six to seven month period, and will not require the full time involvement of a Consultant. There will be a great deal of overlap between the research phases indicated above. Most of the work will be carried out at the BME office or other research locations of BME, but several on-site visits to the UK office of the ECI offices are also envisaged.
DELIVERABLES At the completion of the research project, the Consultant will deliver a report in MS Word containing the findings of the research and recommendations. The report will contain text together will relevant tables and graphs. It is likely to be 80-120 pages in length. Upon completion, the Consultant will also provide an MS Powerpoint presentation summarising and illustrating the main findings. This is likely to contain 25-50 slides. In addition, interview notes, Excel spreadsheets and any other relevant research material will be made available to the ECI.
STAFFING The project will be led and largely researched by Paul Dewison. During the project, the services of an experienced Research Consultant may also be employed in some or all of the main research tasks. More junior staff may also be employed, as appropriate.
STATEMENT OF EXPERTISE 5
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
BME is a specialised consultancy engaged in base metals market and price analysis, focussing in particular on copper. The single client consultancy arm of the company is led by Paul Dewison. Until September 2005, Paul was Managing Director of Metalica Ltd., a consultancy focussed mostly on copper fabricating business. Metalica always worked in close association with BME, both companies being part of the Metallicarum alliance of consulting and trading firms. Through Paul Dewison, the former consulting business of Metalica is incorporated within BME and as such brings to bear a wealth of experience relevant to the successful completion of this project. The staff chosen for this project will have similar relevant experience.
TIMING The total project research time is estimated at a minimum of 55 days. This is based on the entire project being undertaken by the Research Manager (Paul Dewison). If other, more junior staff, are involved, the research time will be increased accordingly. The research timeline is indicated in Appendix 2. The timeline is stated in terms of weeks, as there has been no agreement as to start or finish date. As can be seen, the estimated lead time between project commencement and completion is 30 weeks.
COST Based on project specifications as detailed in this Proposal, the fixed fee for completion of this research project is US$50,000 (fifty thousand US Dollars). The fee will cover all time costs relating to research, analysis and client communication, travel and subsistence costs within the UK, presentation of results in the UK, and incidental expenses.
TERMS OF PAYMENT The terms of payment are as follows: 1.
50% of the total agreed fee becomes due within one week of commencement of work on this project.
2.
50% of the total agreed fee becomes payable on the date of project completion and should be paid no later than four weeks after that date.
CONFIDENTIALITY The report(s) provided will not be published or transmitted to third parties. Confidentiality is similarly respected with regard to source materials owned by the ECI. The Consultant undertakes not to divulge the name of
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
the organisation that has commissioned this research if required not to do so or facts not available in the public domain relating to the client of which the Consultant is made aware during the course of this project, unless given specific permission by the client to do so. The Consultant retains the right to use the findings of its research that it could have achieved by non client-specific investigation in future publishing and consulting projects as long as the basic principles of confidentiality are not breached.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST There is no conflict of interest that material affects the ability of the Consultant to make this Proposal of work for the ECI.
PERIOD OF VALIDITY OF BID This bid shall remain valid until the end of 2009.
7
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
Appendix 1: Preliminary Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Importance of Small But Fast Growing Emerging Product Markets A Description of the Markets Under Review Drivers Determining Emerging Product Market Growth Market Forecasts: Europe and Elsewhere Points of Sensitivity Determining Market Growth: Regulations / Other Potential for Proactive Involvement by the ECI
1. TRANSPORT MARKETS Including coverage of electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, trains and mass transit systems An introduction will cover themes and comparisons applicable to all of these submarkets, then a review of each submarket under the following section headings. 1.1. 1.2.
1.3. 1.4. 1.5. 1.6.
Markets Description, Segmentation and Development to Date Drivers Creating the New Market (Regulation, Cost, Other) Alternative Technical Solutions and the Influence of Drivers on Technology Choice The Impact of Technology Choice on Incremental Copper Use Markets Forecast and Implied Incremental Copper Use Points of Sensitivity and Potential for Proactive Involvement of the ECI (on regulation, publicity on cost / other advantages of copper intensive solution etc.)
2. MARINE MARKETS Including coverage of subsea, desalination and other marine markets An introduction will cover themes and comparisons applicable to all of these submarkets, then a review of each submarket under the following section headings. 2.1. 2.2.
Markets Description, Segmentation and Development to Date Drivers Creating the New Market (Regulation, Cost, Other)
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
2.3. 2.4. 2.5. 2.6.
Alternative Technical Solutions and the Influence of Drivers on Technology Choice The Impact of Technology Choice on Incremental Copper Use Markets Forecast and Implied Incremental Copper Use Points of Sensitivity and Potential for Proactive Involvement of the ECI (on regulation, publicity on cost / other advantages of copper intensive solution etc.)
3. ENERGY STORAGE, DISTRIBUTIVE GENERATION AND RENEWABLE ENERGY Including coverage of residential heat pumps, batteries, mass storage by utilities, other storage, fuel cells, solar energy, wind power, other distributive generation, other renewable energy An introduction will cover themes and comparisons applicable to all of these submarkets, then a review of each submarket under the following section headings. 3.1. 3.2. 3.3. 3.4. 3.5. 3.6.
4.
Markets Description, Segmentation and Development to Date Drivers Creating the New Market (Regulation, Cost, Other) Alternative Technical Solutions and the Influence of Drivers on Technology Choice The Impact of Technology Choice on Incremental Copper Use Markets Forecast and Implied Incremental Copper Use Points of Sensitivity and Potential for Proactive Involvement of the ECI (on regulation, publicity on cost / other advantages of copper intensive solution etc.)
GREEN BUILDINGS, RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL Including coverage of low energy homes, energy management, alternative fuel sources distributive generation and storage, metering, integrated communications, connected / smart appliances, digital homes An introduction will cover themes and comparisons applicable to all of these submarkets, then a review of each submarket under the following section headings. 4.1. 4.2.
Markets Description, Segmentation and Development to Date Drivers Creating the New Market (Regulation, Cost, Other) 9
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
4.3. 4.4. 4.5. 4.6.
Alternative Technical Solutions and the Influence of Drivers on Technology Choice The Impact of Technology Choice on Incremental Copper Use Markets Forecast and Implied Incremental Copper Use Points of Sensitivity and Potential for Proactive Involvement of the ECI (on regulation, publicity on cost / other advantages of copper intensive solution etc.)
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
Appendix 2: Timeline The project timeline is stated in terms of weeks. Completion is envisaged 30 weeks after project start. The following is based on the Research Manager (Paul Dewison) undertaking all research. The amount of time spent will be greater if other, more junior, staff is engaged in this project.
Project timeline W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10W11 W12 W13W14W15W16W17 W18 W19W20 W21W22 W23 W24W25 W26W27 W28 W29 W30
RESEARCHMANAGER Review of ICA Documents All Work Consultation With ICA Staff All Work
Days=8
Days=5
AccessAdditional Published Info. Days=6 All Work Telephone and Email Research All Work
Days=8
Analysisand Reporting Results Analysis Report Writing Report Presentation
Days=28
Sporadic work Total Time on Project
Non intense work
Intense work
55 days ( Research Manager 55 days)
11
A Proposal relating to
New Markets for Copper prepared for the
European Copper Institute by
Bloomsbury Minerals Economics September 28th 2009
1
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
Bloomsbury Minerals Economics Ltd., 5 Warren Mews London W1T 6AP England Telephone: Mobile: +44 (0)7825178614
Office:
+44(0)2075298910 Email:
[email protected]
Contact:
Paul Dewison
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
s
A Proposal relating to
New Markets for Copper prepared for the
European Copper Institute by
Bloomsbury Minerals Economics BACKGROUND The following is based on a request for a Proposal relating to emerging product markets for copper resulting from conversations between Colin Bennett of the ECI and Paul Dewison of Bloomsbury Minerals Economics during September 2009. The purpose of the research is to investigate the markets for copper that are at an early stage of development, identifying the size and potential growth of these markets and, more importantly, what will determine this growth and how can this be influenced by the ECI. The project would be funded out of the European budget of the ECI. As part of its regular programme of work, the ECI collects a great deal of information relating to the emerging product markets for copper. This material includes information concerning the regulatory and economic drivers relating to these markets, and technical and other information relating specifically to them. It is intended that this information and staff expertise within the ECI should be utilised in full during the course of this research exercise, drawing the existing information together with any new information that may be required in order to provide an appraisal of each of the emerging product markets under review in a consistent (and therefore comparable) framework.
OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE The objective of this research project is to investigate the markets for copper that are at an early stage of development, identifying the size and potential growth of these markets and, more importantly, what will determine this growth and how can this be influenced by the ECI. The market areas identified include: 1)
Transport (electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, trains and mass transit systems).
2)
Marine (subsea, desalination etc). 3
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
3)
Energy storage, distributive generation and renewable energy (residential heat pumps, batteries, mass storage by utilities, other storage, fuel cells, solar energy, wind power, other distributive generation, other renewable energy).
4)
Green buildings, residential and commercial (low energy homes, energy management, alternative fuel sources distributive generation and storage, metering, integrated communications, connected / smart appliances, digital homes).
While the scope of this project is global, the main area of focus will be Europe. Inference as to the size, growth and drivers of markets in other parts of the world will be based on common themes and identified differences between Europe and these markets with regard to regulations and other key issues. When assessing the size and growth of emerging markets, some account will be taken of existing market loss as a result of new market development. For example, it may be assumed that each new hybrid car replaces an existing petrol or diesel engine car. Forecasts will be taken out to 2020. While this research is not intended to create a technical paper, due account will be taken of the impact of alternative technical solutions and the impact on copper. This, for example, is a very important issue when considering the developing markets for batteries and energy storage. Coverage will be given to the drivers affecting technical choice, and the likely application range of each technical solution resulting. The “drivers” affecting the choice of technologies creating the emerging markets include the following: 1) regulations, 2) cost to the consumer, 3) manufacturers’ and designers’ preference, 4) macroeconomic and other underlying considerations affecting the size of the market area in which the emerging product market for copper may play a role. Due account will be given to the structure and impact of each of these drivers in each of the markets under consideration. The ECI is able to influence some drivers affecting technology choice, but not others. It may be influence regulations in particular, but obviously not the macroeconomic environment. Taking this into account, specific reference will be made the where are how the ECI may be able to influence emerging market development will be made. There will be a particular focus on the regulatory environment.
METHODOLOGY This project is based on a relatively limited budget, but does have the advantage of a wealth of published material and expertise accessible through the UK office of the ECI. These two facts largely determine the
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
nature of the research process proposed. It is intended that this should be primarily a desk research exercise involving the following: 1)
A review of documents in the hands of the ECI.
2)
Consultation with members of the members of the ECI team allocated to this project for each subject area.
3)
Accessing documents in the public domain that are not already in the hands of the ECI, especially as they relate to regulations affecting technology choice.
4) Telephone discussion with manufacturers and other key contacts to supplement the results of the paper-based investigation and to gain new insight. 5) Results analysis and report preparation. It is intended that the work as specified above should be carried out over a six to seven month period, and will not require the full time involvement of a Consultant. There will be a great deal of overlap between the research phases indicated above. Most of the work will be carried out at the BME office or other research locations of BME, but several on-site visits to the UK office of the ECI offices are also envisaged.
DELIVERABLES At the completion of the research project, the Consultant will deliver a report in MS Word containing the findings of the research and recommendations. The report will contain text together will relevant tables and graphs. It is likely to be 80-120 pages in length. Upon completion, the Consultant will also provide an MS Powerpoint presentation summarising and illustrating the main findings. This is likely to contain 25-50 slides. In addition, interview notes, Excel spreadsheets and any other relevant research material will be made available to the ECI.
STAFFING The project will be led and largely researched by Paul Dewison. During the project, the services of an experienced Research Consultant may also be employed in some or all of the main research tasks. More junior staff may also be employed, as appropriate.
STATEMENT OF EXPERTISE 5
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
BME is a specialised consultancy engaged in base metals market and price analysis, focussing in particular on copper. The single client consultancy arm of the company is led by Paul Dewison. Until September 2005, Paul was Managing Director of Metalica Ltd., a consultancy focussed mostly on copper fabricating business. Metalica always worked in close association with BME, both companies being part of the Metallicarum alliance of consulting and trading firms. Through Paul Dewison, the former consulting business of Metalica is incorporated within BME and as such brings to bear a wealth of experience relevant to the successful completion of this project. The staff chosen for this project will have similar relevant experience.
TIMING The total project research time is estimated at a minimum of 55 days. This is based on the entire project being undertaken by the Research Manager (Paul Dewison). If other, more junior staff, are involved, the research time will be increased accordingly. The research timeline is indicated in Appendix 2. The timeline is stated in terms of weeks, as there has been no agreement as to start or finish date. As can be seen, the estimated lead time between project commencement and completion is 30 weeks.
COST Based on project specifications as detailed in this Proposal, the fixed fee for completion of this research project is US$50,000 (fifty thousand US Dollars). The fee will cover all time costs relating to research, analysis and client communication, travel and subsistence costs within the UK, presentation of results in the UK, and incidental expenses.
TERMS OF PAYMENT The terms of payment are as follows: 1.
50% of the total agreed fee becomes due within one week of commencement of work on this project.
2.
50% of the total agreed fee becomes payable on the date of project completion and should be paid no later than four weeks after that date.
CONFIDENTIALITY The report(s) provided will not be published or transmitted to third parties. Confidentiality is similarly respected with regard to source materials owned by the ECI. The Consultant undertakes not to divulge the name of
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
the organisation that has commissioned this research if required not to do so or facts not available in the public domain relating to the client of which the Consultant is made aware during the course of this project, unless given specific permission by the client to do so. The Consultant retains the right to use the findings of its research that it could have achieved by non client-specific investigation in future publishing and consulting projects as long as the basic principles of confidentiality are not breached.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST There is no conflict of interest that material affects the ability of the Consultant to make this Proposal of work for the ECI.
PERIOD OF VALIDITY OF BID This bid shall remain valid until the end of 2009.
7
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
Appendix 1: Preliminary Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Importance of Small But Fast Growing Emerging Product Markets A Description of the Markets Under Review Drivers Determining Emerging Product Market Growth Market Forecasts: Europe and Elsewhere Points of Sensitivity Determining Market Growth: Regulations / Other Potential for Proactive Involvement by the ECI
1. TRANSPORT MARKETS Including coverage of electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, trains and mass transit systems An introduction will cover themes and comparisons applicable to all of these submarkets, then a review of each submarket under the following section headings. 1.1. 1.2.
1.3. 1.4. 1.5. 1.6.
Markets Description, Segmentation and Development to Date Drivers Creating the New Market (Regulation, Cost, Other) Alternative Technical Solutions and the Influence of Drivers on Technology Choice The Impact of Technology Choice on Incremental Copper Use Markets Forecast and Implied Incremental Copper Use Points of Sensitivity and Potential for Proactive Involvement of the ECI (on regulation, publicity on cost / other advantages of copper intensive solution etc.)
2. MARINE MARKETS Including coverage of subsea, desalination and other marine markets An introduction will cover themes and comparisons applicable to all of these submarkets, then a review of each submarket under the following section headings. 2.1. 2.2.
Markets Description, Segmentation and Development to Date Drivers Creating the New Market (Regulation, Cost, Other)
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
2.3. 2.4. 2.5. 2.6.
Alternative Technical Solutions and the Influence of Drivers on Technology Choice The Impact of Technology Choice on Incremental Copper Use Markets Forecast and Implied Incremental Copper Use Points of Sensitivity and Potential for Proactive Involvement of the ECI (on regulation, publicity on cost / other advantages of copper intensive solution etc.)
3. ENERGY STORAGE, DISTRIBUTIVE GENERATION AND RENEWABLE ENERGY Including coverage of residential heat pumps, batteries, mass storage by utilities, other storage, fuel cells, solar energy, wind power, other distributive generation, other renewable energy An introduction will cover themes and comparisons applicable to all of these submarkets, then a review of each submarket under the following section headings. 3.1. 3.2. 3.3. 3.4. 3.5. 3.6.
4.
Markets Description, Segmentation and Development to Date Drivers Creating the New Market (Regulation, Cost, Other) Alternative Technical Solutions and the Influence of Drivers on Technology Choice The Impact of Technology Choice on Incremental Copper Use Markets Forecast and Implied Incremental Copper Use Points of Sensitivity and Potential for Proactive Involvement of the ECI (on regulation, publicity on cost / other advantages of copper intensive solution etc.)
GREEN BUILDINGS, RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL Including coverage of low energy homes, energy management, alternative fuel sources distributive generation and storage, metering, integrated communications, connected / smart appliances, digital homes An introduction will cover themes and comparisons applicable to all of these submarkets, then a review of each submarket under the following section headings. 4.1. 4.2.
Markets Description, Segmentation and Development to Date Drivers Creating the New Market (Regulation, Cost, Other) 9
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
4.3. 4.4. 4.5. 4.6.
Alternative Technical Solutions and the Influence of Drivers on Technology Choice The Impact of Technology Choice on Incremental Copper Use Markets Forecast and Implied Incremental Copper Use Points of Sensitivity and Potential for Proactive Involvement of the ECI (on regulation, publicity on cost / other advantages of copper intensive solution etc.)
BLOOMSBURY MINERALS ECONOMICS LTD
Appendix 2: Timeline The project timeline is stated in terms of weeks. Completion is envisaged 30 weeks after project start. The following is based on the Research Manager (Paul Dewison) undertaking all research. The amount of time spent will be greater if other, more junior, staff is engaged in this project.
Project timeline W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10W11 W12 W13W14W15W16W17 W18 W19W20 W21W22 W23 W24W25 W26W27 W28 W29 W30
RESEARCHMANAGER Review of ICA Documents All Work Consultation With ICA Staff All Work
Days=8
Days=5
AccessAdditional Published Info. Days=6 All Work Telephone and Email Research All Work
Days=8
Analysisand Reporting Results Analysis Report Writing Report Presentation
Days=28
Sporadic work Total Time on Project
Non intense work
Intense work
55 days ( Research Manager 55 days)
11
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