Bc3 Saic Adaptation Event 10-07-09

Climate Adaptation Steve Messner, SAIC Steve Goldbeck, BCDC 7th October 2009

Be a leader. Be informed. Be a part of BC3. The Business Council on Climate Change.

Agenda 1. 2. 3. 4.

Introduction (BC3 and SAIC) State Level Climate Adaptation Strategies (SAIC) Regional Case Study: San Diego (SAIC) Bay Area Climate Adaptation (BCDC)

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Introduction With climate change, there are two fundamental issues for cities to address… 1. Greenhouse gas emissions mitigation strategies 2. Climate change impacts adaptation strategies

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Importance of Adaptation • Climate Change Impacts are already occurring • Future climate impacts projected to be worse • Without adaptation, $2.5 trillion are at risk • Opportunity to reduce risks and build resilience • Adaptation is required under CEQA

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California Climate Adaptation •

Governor’s Executive Order S-13-08: • State Climate Adaptation Strategy (CAS) • California Sea Level Rise Assessment Report • Transportation systems vulnerability assessment

California historical and projected July temperature increase 1961-2099

Source: Dan Cayan et al. 2009

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California Climate Adaptation (cont.) •

Decreasing California Snowpack

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California Climate Adaptation Strategy (CAS) • First state-wide, multi-sector, regionspecific info-based adaptation strategy in the US • Led by CNRA under Climate Action Team • Six state agencies led 7 different working groups • Focused on “Science, Strategy, Action” • Strategies = What can be done by December 2010 • Beginning of conversation, not end 7

CAS Elements • Adaptation story • Synthesis of statewide impacts from latest research • Outline key recommendations • Describe potential impacts on sectors • Provide sector-based adaptation strategies

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CAS Key Recommendations • • • • • •

Avoid significant new development in high risk areas Sector agencies develop adaptation plans Develop Climate Adaptation Advisory Panel Implement CEQA = climate impacts to projects Adapt water management and use for climate change Identify most vulnerable communities and habitats (2010)

• • • • •

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Offer guidance/tools for local community planning Identify wildfire risk areas (June 2010) Increase renewable energy supply/efficiency Make synthesized research results easily accessible Provide guidance to local communities on assessing ways to maintain/improve public health under climate change

CAS Cross-Sector Strategies • • • • • •

Improve emergency preparedness and response Expand research and monitoring Develop a statewide climate vulnerability assessment Develop a coordinated public outreach effort Coordinate and centralize adaptation efforts Provide tools to effectively guide local land use decisions

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CAS Strategy Example – Water Management •

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Regional water management • Fully implement Integrated Regional Water Management (IRWM) • Aggressively increase water use efficiency Statewide water management • Flood management • Ecosystem stewardship • Surface and groundwater storage • Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Decision-making capacity Sustainable financing 11

CAS Strategy Example – Coastal Resources • State policy to avoid future sea level rise hazards • Decision guidance for dealing with existing infrastructure and development and planning new projects • Data and information support for local and state agencies • Continued state agency and local planning

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CAS Strategy – Coastal Resources) Replacement value of buildings and contents vulnerable to a 100 year coastal flood with 1.4 meters of sea level rise Source: Pacific Institute, 2009 http://www.pacinst.org/reports/sea_l evel_rise/maps/

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CAS Strategy Example – Forestry • Incorporate climate information into Resource Management and Fire Protection programs • Improve capacity for long term and real-time risk and vulnerability assessments • Support local actions to address vulnerability and manage for resilience • Monitor forest health and adaptive management

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CAS Strategy Example – Infrastructure •

Energy segment: • Increase Energy Efficiency in Climate Vulnerable Areas • Assess impacts from climate change in siting and re-licensing of new energy facilities • Develop hydropower decisionsupport tools to better manage climate change variability • Identify how state renewable energy goals could be impacted by climate impacts

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San Diego Climate & Adaptation Planning •

The San Diego Foundation’s Climate Initiative

“Work with government, business, and the community at large to advance regional efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions and reduce our vulnerability to some of the most harmful effects of climate change”

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San Diego Carbon Footprint

www.sandiego.edu/epic/ghginventory 17

San Diego GHG Mitigation Strategies

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San Diego uniquely at risk • Enviable mild climate • 70 miles of coastline • Exceptional combination of beaches, canyons, mountains, & deserts • Unique hot-spot for biodiversity, with many already threatened species • Severe existing wildfire conditions • International border with Tijuana • Reliance on imports for up to 95% of our water needs

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San Diego Focus 2050 Study Primary Question: What will our region look like in 2050 due to climate change, if current trends continue? (King County model) • To understand the unknown costs and risks associated with a changing climate • To build sense of urgency around agreed upon set of facts

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Approach • Disaggregate California Data & Trends to County Level Topics Addressed Climate change Electricity Sea level rise Land use & Transportation Water Wildfires Public health Biodiversity & Habitat Contributing Organizations Include UCSD, SDSU, USD, UCSB, UCR Scripps Institute for Oceanography Conservation Biology Institute SANDAG County of San Diego departments U.S. Geological Survey San Diego County Water Authority CA Center for Sustainable Energy SD Natural History Museum SAIC CA Center for Sustainable Energy Zoological Society of San Diego 21

Regional Climate Change • Average annual temperatures will be between 1.5 & 4.5oF higher by 2050 • Early November will “feel” like September currently does. • Our region will become even more vulnerable to drought. Projected  Annual Temperatures for San Diego County  until 2100 

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Sea Level Rise • Sea level is projected to rise by as much as 18 inches • This, combined with tidal and storm surges, will cause harm or loss of our sandy beach areas, wetlands, coastal commercial, municipal, & residential properties Projected sea level rise for San Diego County until 2050

in

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Water • Despite plans for water conservation, desalinization, and recycling, demand for fresh water will outstrip supply by 2050 • There will be growing potential for conflicts among multiple users

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Ecosystems • Plant and animal habitats in San Diego will be increasingly threatened due to • climate change too rapid for some species to adapt • increased wildfires & more intense droughts • habitat fragmentation and urban sprawl

The southern Sagebrush Lizard is found only at elevations above 5,000 ft.  With  already reduced populations, they may disappear from local mountains that “top  out” at 6,000 feet if temperatures continue to rise. 27

Electricity • Managing regional energy demand will be even more challenging by 2050 • Peak electricity demand will increase by over 70% with warmer temperatures causing about 7%. Projected change in summer daytime peak temperatures in San Diego County in the year 2050

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Adaptation Option Examples

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Adaptation Option Examples

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Thank You & Discussion Please contact:

Steve Messner Ph: 858.220.6079 E-mail: [email protected] Learn how SAIC’s energy and climate change team can help you.

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