Bc3 Bcdc Climate Adaptation 10-7-08
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Responding to Rising Tides: San Francisco Bay
Steve Goldbeck Deputy Director San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission
Projected Sea Level Rise Three Emissions Scenarios: A1fi – High A2 – Medium High B1 - Low
Source: California Climate Action Team Report 2009
Vulnerability Analysis
Identify Planning Areas and Systems
Existing Challenges
Projected Impacts
Sensitivity Analysis
Adaptive Capacity
Scenarios SLR • 16 inches (40 cm) of sea level rise at 50 years • 55 inches (140 cm) at 100 years • Prepared by USGS (Knowles)
Potential Inundation • About180,000 acres (281 square miles) of shoreline vulnerable to flooding with 16 inches of sea level rise • Approximately 213,000 acres (332 square miles) vulnerable at 55 inches
South Bay Central
16” SLR 55” SLR
Residential Inundation • About 66,000 acres (103 square miles) of shoreline vulnerable to flooding with 16 inches of sea level rise • Approximately 82,000 acres (128 square miles) vulnerable at 55 inches
Consequences • Approximately 270,000 residents vulnerable to flooding • Approximately 81 schools • 11 fire stations • 9 police stations • 42 healthcare facilities
a
San Francisco International Airport
Sixteen Inch and Fifty-five Inch Sea Level Rise
Sixteen Inch Sea Level Rise and Fifty-five Inch Sea Level Rise
Oakland International Airport Sixteen Inch and Fifty-five Inch Sea Level Rise
Sixteen Inch Sea Level Rise and Fifty-five Inch Sea Level Rise
Silicon Valley Sixteen Inch and Fifty-five Inch Sea Level Rise
Sixteen Inch Sea Level Rise and Fifty-five Inch Sea Level Rise
Costs • $62 Billion replacement value SF Bay Area • $32 Billion for the rest of Ca shoreline
Central Bay North Low-income Communities
16” SLR 55” SLR PDAs
Major Highways Adjacent to the Bay
Transportation Vulnerability • Approximately 99 to 106 miles of roadways are vulnerable to flooding • Approximately 70 to 105 miles of rail are vulnerable at 55 inches (140 cm).
Wastewater Treatment Approximately 22 treatment plants are vulnerable to flooding at 55 inches.
1849
2100
North Bay Marsh Habitats Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise
Source: Baylands (EcoAtlas 2009), Hillshade (USGS NED)
Today’s Flood is Tomorrow’s High Tide
Area subject to high tide with 16 inches of sea level rise Current 100year flood plain
Joint Policy Committee • • • •
Association of Bay Area Governments Bay Area Air Quality Management District BCDC Metropolitan Transportation Commission
Wetlands & Flood Control
Climate Ready Estuaries Pilot
The Dutch
Design Competition
Local Government Assistance • Workshops • Provide Tools • NOAA Fellow
Planning Considerations • Regional level • Sustainability • Plan now/Build later
Bay Area Climate Compact • • • • • • •
City of Oakland City of San Jose City of San Francisco Saratoga Santa Clara County Mountain View Joint Policy Committee
Bay Area Climate Compact • • • • • • •
Environmental Defense Fund Bay Area Council Joint Venture Silicon Valley Sustainable Silicon Valley Silicon Valley Leadership Group Bank of America Pacific Gas & Electric
Steve Goldbeck Deputy Director San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission
Projected Sea Level Rise Three Emissions Scenarios: A1fi – High A2 – Medium High B1 - Low
Source: California Climate Action Team Report 2009
Vulnerability Analysis
Identify Planning Areas and Systems
Existing Challenges
Projected Impacts
Sensitivity Analysis
Adaptive Capacity
Scenarios SLR • 16 inches (40 cm) of sea level rise at 50 years • 55 inches (140 cm) at 100 years • Prepared by USGS (Knowles)
Potential Inundation • About180,000 acres (281 square miles) of shoreline vulnerable to flooding with 16 inches of sea level rise • Approximately 213,000 acres (332 square miles) vulnerable at 55 inches
South Bay Central
16” SLR 55” SLR
Residential Inundation • About 66,000 acres (103 square miles) of shoreline vulnerable to flooding with 16 inches of sea level rise • Approximately 82,000 acres (128 square miles) vulnerable at 55 inches
Consequences • Approximately 270,000 residents vulnerable to flooding • Approximately 81 schools • 11 fire stations • 9 police stations • 42 healthcare facilities
a
San Francisco International Airport
Sixteen Inch and Fifty-five Inch Sea Level Rise
Sixteen Inch Sea Level Rise and Fifty-five Inch Sea Level Rise
Oakland International Airport Sixteen Inch and Fifty-five Inch Sea Level Rise
Sixteen Inch Sea Level Rise and Fifty-five Inch Sea Level Rise
Silicon Valley Sixteen Inch and Fifty-five Inch Sea Level Rise
Sixteen Inch Sea Level Rise and Fifty-five Inch Sea Level Rise
Costs • $62 Billion replacement value SF Bay Area • $32 Billion for the rest of Ca shoreline
Central Bay North Low-income Communities
16” SLR 55” SLR PDAs
Major Highways Adjacent to the Bay
Transportation Vulnerability • Approximately 99 to 106 miles of roadways are vulnerable to flooding • Approximately 70 to 105 miles of rail are vulnerable at 55 inches (140 cm).
Wastewater Treatment Approximately 22 treatment plants are vulnerable to flooding at 55 inches.
1849
2100
North Bay Marsh Habitats Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise
Source: Baylands (EcoAtlas 2009), Hillshade (USGS NED)
Today’s Flood is Tomorrow’s High Tide
Area subject to high tide with 16 inches of sea level rise Current 100year flood plain
Joint Policy Committee • • • •
Association of Bay Area Governments Bay Area Air Quality Management District BCDC Metropolitan Transportation Commission
Wetlands & Flood Control
Climate Ready Estuaries Pilot
The Dutch
Design Competition
Local Government Assistance • Workshops • Provide Tools • NOAA Fellow
Planning Considerations • Regional level • Sustainability • Plan now/Build later
Bay Area Climate Compact • • • • • • •
City of Oakland City of San Jose City of San Francisco Saratoga Santa Clara County Mountain View Joint Policy Committee
Bay Area Climate Compact • • • • • • •
Environmental Defense Fund Bay Area Council Joint Venture Silicon Valley Sustainable Silicon Valley Silicon Valley Leadership Group Bank of America Pacific Gas & Electric
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