Autonews Ibm Truck 2020 Webinar Presentation 11-13-2009
This document was uploaded by user and they confirmed that they have the permission to share it. If you are author or own the copyright of this book, please report to us by using this DMCA report form. Report DMCA
Overview
Download & View Autonews Ibm Truck 2020 Webinar Presentation 11-13-2009 as PDF for free.
More details
- Words: 2,652
- Pages: 50
Truck 2020: Transcending Turbulence Thank you for participating and completing the online survey… results and answers to webinar questions at:
http://truck2020.blogspot.com Also, keep following study related posts at http://twitter.com/kalgyimesi
Welcome
Peter Brown Associate Publisher And Editorial Director Automotive News
Sanjay Rishi Vice President and Global Automotive Industry Leader IBM Global Business Services
Sanjay Rishi / IBM Global Automotive Leader Calstart HTUF / October 28, 2009
Truck 2020: Transcending Turbulence
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Interviews included the entire trucking value chain, multi-modal operators, industry regulators and associations Truck OEMs
Truck Suppliers
Value Chain
Group Lenormand
Chongqing Heavy Vehicle Group
Fleets
Bus OEMs
Regulators
Associations
Others
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Our interviews were global and comprehensive
Interviews by Region EBRIC 16% Japan 20%
Interviews by Industry Segment Others 18%
US/Canada 39% Western Europe 25%
91 executive interviews completed 13 countries Emerging countries accounted for 16%: Eastern Europe, Brazil, Russia, India and China
Value Chain 13% Fleets 9%
OEMs 35%
Suppliers 25%
60% - OEMs and suppliers 8 of the top 10 OEMs, that includes over 85% of total volume Other interviews include; regulators, dealers/bodybuilders and multi-modal operators © 2009 IBM Corporation
By 2020, there will be radical changes in the pressures facing truck executives compared to the issues they are addressing today What are the most important external forces impacting the industry Today and in 2020? 71% Technology
70%
Progress
61% 54% Globalization
Sustainability
48% 45%
48% Concerns
36% Urban Development
“Our business will change drastically as the basics of our economics and ecology is radically altered” –European Truck OEM
32% 28% Economic Stability 25% Government Influences 22% Corporate Social
Responsibility 15%, 15% 12%
2009
9%
2020
Global Labor Force
Increasing Trends Decreasing Trends © 2009 IBM Corporation
The impact of the current economic crisis will subside, but could have longer implications for those who have failed to invest Economic Stability Truck production volume has seen the largest decreases on record over the last 8 months
70%
Executives largely agree that these events will abate over time and the industry will focus on growth for the future…
28% … but, there may be residual effect from the economy. Companies deferring investment leave themselves at risk when growth resumes 2009
2020
© 2009 IBM Corporation
The monumental changes facing the industry require truck producers to navigate the road ahead carefully
Globalization efforts will be a force through the decade… …as the vehicle’s Brand is increasingly commoditized… …but embracing technology will be a clear path forward… …while new markets, partnerships and focus to service offers growth
This transition requires a new enterprise and different workforce © 2009 IBM Corporation
While the surge toward globalization is building, the path and speed of that transformation is less certain What are the most important external forces impacting the industry Today and in 2020?
Globalization 55%
54%
48%
“Suppliers and Auto OEMs are successful because they embraced globalization. Truck OEMs need to do this urgently” –Japanese Truck OEM
31% Truck 2020
“There are too many differences regionally for globalization to work for this industry”
Automotive 2020
–US Supplier 2009
2020
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Purchasing decisions will be based on regulatory and value issues, rather than brand loyalty Rate the Change in Vehicle Buying Criteria 2008 2020 Fuel Efficiency Total Cost of Ownership
Fuel Efficiency, Total Cost of Ownership, and Eco-friendly criteria are
Eco-friendly Safety
increasing in importance
Reliability Traffic congestion Configurability Credit & Financing
Brand of the vehicle is becoming much
Price
less important
Values of Company Personalization Brand -1 Decreasing
0 Unchanged
1
2 Increasing
© 2009 IBM Corporation
The developed markets, with established brands, recognize the vehicle is being commoditized
Breakdown of BRAND by Market
Fuel Efficiency Total Cost of Ownership
The developed markets agree the
Eco-friendly
brand is losing importance
Safety Reliability Traffic congestion
Developed
–0.3, n=76
Emerging
1.2, n=15
Configurability Credit & Financing Price
-1
Values of Company
0
Unchanged
1
Personalization
Brand -1 Decreasing
0 Unchanged
1
2 Increasing
© 2009 IBM Corporation
There is broad agreement across markets and industry segments that the vehicle’s brand is diminishing in importance
Brand diminishment was validated in Europe, US, OEMs in developed countries, suppliers and fleets Breakdown by Market W. Europe
–0.7
US/Canada
–0.2
Breakdown by Segment OEMs:
1.25
–0.4
Developed/Emerging
Suppliers
–0.8
Dealer/Body Japan Fleets Emerging -1
–0.5
Others 0 Unchanged
1
-1
0 Unchanged
1
“Brand reduces in importance as more similar products enter the market” –Indian Truck OEM © 2009 IBM Corporation
Truck manufacturers must transition from a brand image centered on the vehicle to one that addresses the larger transportation solution Today vehicles are sold with
By 2020, the value will be in
non-integrated add-ons
integrated solutions
Navigation / Routing
Vehicle
+
+ Advanced Vehicles
Comprehensive Serviceability
Integrated Telematics
Bundled Services
Service Contracts
“The differentiation won’t be on products, but on services” –European Truck OEM © 2009 IBM Corporation
Innovation in the vehicle will remain important as investments center on connectivity, emissions and fuel economy Rate the Level of Innovation in various aspects of the vehicle by 2020 Electrical Systems/Electronics
4.4
Softw are
4.4
Engine & Auxiliary Systems
4.2
Pow ertrain
3.9
Braking Systems
3.1
Trailer/Load
2.8
Body Exterior
2.7
Chassis
2.6
Interior
2.6
Body Structure
2.5 1
Low
2
3
“The development of software is much more important than hardware” –Japanese Truck OEM
4
5 High
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Telematics will impact everything about the vehicle and its usage Service • Remote and faster diagnostics, reducing service time • Prognostics, managing PM cycles and proactive servicing
Safety • Navigation • Speed control approaching curves, exits and turns
Driver Assistance • Route navigation, geofencing, notice of rest, fuel or service areas • Electronic payments - toll, drive thru, parking, road charging
Regulatory Compliance • Determining what roads and boundaries that the vehicle can go • Auto identification and reporting of non-compliance
Sustainability • Managing fuel economy through navigation and driver information • Switching to different power modes based on regulations
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Technology is also critical in addressing the issues of oil…
Energy and Transportation Consumption in the US
Daily US Oil consumption represented as a lake… 100m long
Other Air 6% 13%
Trucks 30%
Light Vehicles 51%
100m wide 396m deep!
…81% of US oil imports could be eliminated if all cars and trucks were fully electric © 2009 IBM Corporation
Hybrid vehicles offer the best overall opportunity for more efficient energy usage
Efficiency of each source based on cumulative effects associated with producing, transporting, and using fuel… Energy Efficiency Ratio Comparison Light Vehicles Relative to Gasoline
2.3 3.0
Heavy Vehicles Relative to Diesel
1.0
Gasoline/diesel plus ethanol and biomass blends
1.0
Compressed and liquefied natural gas Hydrogen in a fuel cell Electricity in a battery or plug in hybrid electric
1.0 0.9 1.9 2.7
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Solutions will come from many places, but hybridization will make the biggest difference by 2020
Hybridization will be applied far and wide… Plug-in hybrid Hydraulic hybrid Some applications can be electric
Alternative fuel
Retrofitting
technologies develop as infrastructure is built out
existing fleets should be encouraged
CNG LNG Methane
With as much incentives as new production…
© 2009 IBM Corporation
The US is in an outstanding position to lead this transformation We have the
We have the
We have the
entrepreneurship
innovation
incentive
More small emerging suppliers Venture capital investment
Outstanding innovation culture Many hybrid solutions are being tested here
US is enabling stimulus explicitly for hybrid trucks State-based stimulus helps further
© 2009 IBM Corporation
The combination of technology, solutions and partnerships will lead to differentiating business models Enabling technology…
packaged into solutions…
…built through partnerships
© 2009 IBM Corporation
The combination of technology, solutions and partnerships will lead to differentiating business models Enabling technology…
• Fully electric • 60,000lb Load • Recharge in 30 min
packaged into solutions…
…built through partnerships
• Price as conventional vehicle
• Partner based on applications
• Deferred fuel annuity
• Establish preferred transport green routes
• Battery swap warranty
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Industry ecosystems must align to address environmental, regulatory and customer concerns Plug in Hybrid Recharging Government - Transportation - Energy - Safety
Energy / Utilities
Truck and Bus
Other Industries - Financial Services - Biotechnology - Retail / CP
Electronics Telecommunications
Automotive - Light Vehicle
- Software
Performance Optimization
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Cross industry partnerships will be instrumental to some of the biggest issues facing the industry Truck Mfg / Fleets
Urban Traffic Management:
Government
Retailers Utilities
Intermodal Optimization:
Transition to Plugin Hybrid Fleets:
Truck Mfg / Fleets Government
Rail Shipping / Barge
“The industry doesn't realize yet how much it needs to change” –US Industry Organization
Truck Mfg / Fleets Government
Utilities Finance © 2009 IBM Corporation
This transformation requires a new enterprise and a fundamentally different workforce Rate the most critical skills for the industry in 2020 Engineering
“Leadership is especially critical in a distributed workforce”
Marketing / Selling
–North American Integrator
Product Planning
“The truck enterprise of the future has to be positioned differently in the market”
Service Technician Leadership
–European Truck OEM Software Development Production Truck 2020
Procurement
Automotive 2020
Finance 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100% © 2009 IBM Corporation
The future will be exciting for the truck industry and the industry must seize the moment To globally integrate or regionally specialize? This is the dilemma for truck manufacturers
Brand of the vehicle is being commoditized, truck manufacturers will have to evolve their definition of brand and develop solutions
Telematics is your most important investment for the future Hybrid truck development is critical for the future, particularly given increased urbanization globally The US
is leading this innovation and must continue to invest to maintain this lead
Truck manufacturers must aggressively expand their thinking about partnerships beyond traditional industry boundaries The winners by 2020 will have significantly transformed
their workforce
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Bill Van Amburg Senior Vice President CALSTART
HTUF 2009
Hybrid Truck Users Forum (HTUF) User-driven process to commercialize medium- and heavy-duty hybrid trucks Joint CALSTART-U.S. Army program (RDECOM-TARDEC-NAC) Also supported by Hewlett Foundation, support from DOE, DOT
HTUF focuses on commercializing hybrid trucks with dual-use benefits Speed commercialization and reduce overall costs by creating common fleet requirements, joint purchase commitments, increasing volumes More than 80 National Fleets and All Major Truck Makers & System Suppliers involved (partial list)
Key Take-Aways From HTUF 2009 Hybrids are real – in first, low-volume production (but low volume means higher cost) The applications are expanding – big growth in chassis/body combinations Hybrids bring big energy security, economic and emissions benefits: reduced fuel use, lower emissions and US manufacturing and engineering jobs U.S. currently is the leader in this technology – though competition is growing Public partnership to speed this industry would be useful – helping fleets buy to increase production is biggest help
Regional Heavy & Line Haul Hybrid Trucks
Kenworth, Peterbilt, Navistar and Freightliner all have Class 8 regional haul tractors (up to 55,000 GVWR single axle) All developing next generation advanced Class 8 – including electric and hybrid configurations
Mack showcased advanced hybrid line haul Class 8(full 80,000 lb GVWR); next stages add more electrification
Hydraulic Hybrids Coming of Age Several preproduction and near production models shown: Eaton, Bosch Rexroth, Parker Parallel and Series architecture FCCC – Parker series parcel strip chassis showed impressive integration, potential fuel savings
Emergence of Serious Electric Platforms Freightliner Custom Chassis and Enova showcased Joins: Navistar/Modec (production Q1 2010) Ford/Azure (Transit Connect, 2010)
Hybrid Trucks Now Entering Market Hybrid introduction 10 years behind cars but industry is real, momentum growing
Development
TOOLS:
Test prototypes and systems R&D Support
Pre-Production Field pilot assessments (10-50 vehicles)
Production Intent Assembly line builds up to 100+
Early Production Initial commercial volumes – still high incremental cost
Purchase Incentives Pre-Production Deployment Support (HTUF)
Hybrid Truck Technology Critical to U.S. Hybridization provides significant immediate benefits ENERGY SECURITY: Reduced fuel consumption (30-50%) EMISSIONS/CLIMATE: Reduced criteria (NOx) and GHG emissions (1060%) One of few strategies to improve on 2010 emissions reductions ECONOMY: North American leadership Fuel consumption reduction from HTUF field testing data in technology, manufacturing Emissions/fuel reduction from HTUF dyno testing data performed at SwRI Reductions come just from hybrid system, no additional after-treatment CO2 reductions closely tracked fuel reduction percentages
Hybrid Trucks at “Tipping Point” Hybrid truck production volumes are still too low in early market to realize price reductions However: modest volumes can move prices to within business cases needs: Need 3,000 - 5,000 driveline units/year Industry Needs: Long term R&D – energy storage, efficient components, integration Pre-production funding (10-100 vehicles per application) Commercially-focused purchase incentives
Lessons from Hybrid Launch Truck world is changing rapidly – hybrids and advanced trucks are the first salvo Users needs and demands are changing rapidly – energy efficiency, emissions, sustainability rising Trucks of the future will require very different technologies for powertrains, components, vehicle management and operation Truck makers will need new skills, non-traditional suppliers and business models to address these changes – it is becoming a high-tech industry U.S. currently is the leader in some of these first technologies – though competition is growing A multi-year suite of US strategies, investments and policies to support truck industry change is needed
Michael Stark Senior Technical Sales Manager National Accounts Freightliner Custom Chassis Corporation
CleanDrive Technologies Globalization
Michael Stark Daimler Trucks North America
Daimler Commercial Vehicle Sustainable Mobility
1
Global Hybrid Center Asia Market
Light Duty Trucks
Hybrid Technology
Conclusion First steps done. Further success factors to be investigated in next year
Major levers
Material costs
Measures Modular components System platform with scalable components, e.g. derive Medium Power system using Light & High Power system Technology enhancements Technology improvements for material cost reductions Vehicle packaging Enlarge max. addressable vehicle volume Target costing Strong Involvement of suppliers for cost reduction
Fuel savings
HEV components Define optimal HEV components for max fuel saving potential (design to point) Operation strategy Develop optimal vehicle and application HEV operation strategy
Need for action
Investigations to be extended on - component specification High-power System - Packaging concept improvement - concept competitions with suppliers
A3
Two modular hybrid systems defined Medium and Heavy Duty Application s Input
Approach HD: (Cascadia)
MD: (M2)
• Route profiles Highway: RT Interurban: City cycle:
Atlanta-Memphis Sysco Foods Nestle/FedEx
• Load profiles
Empty: 0 % payload Semi loaded: 60 % payload Fully loaded: 100 % payload Example: MD Highway: Interurban: City cycle:
52 %* 26 %* 22 %*
Empty: 30 %* at 6t Semi loaded: 45 %* at 9,6t Fully loaded:100 %* at 12t
- Based on input data approach used to calculate optimal fuel saving potentials for each vehicle** - Fuel saving potentials used as basis for HEV systems definition
• Limiting factors for system are
High Power System
• Energy analysis Voltage [V]
nom. Capacity [kWh]
4,8
Number of cells
188
Medium Power System
• Reference Vehicles
Results
Voltage [V]
360
Battery Power [kW]
720 const.
45
peak
110
effect.
65 - 100
layout
- legislation (max. voltage 750V) - available technology for battery (cell output limited) - available technology for inverter
Battery Power [kW]
const.
23
peak
55
effect.
32 - 50
nom. Capacity [kWh]
2,4
Number of cells
94
Looking Forward Hydraulic Hybrid Advanced “Engine Off” Feature 50% - 70% increase in MPG
All-electric Plug-In Vehicles Zero emissions - $0.08 - $0.10 per mile energy cost vs. $0.25 - $0.48 per mile for comparable diesel or gas Vehiclen
DTNA Global Family
Thank You
Q&A
Visit this webinar on demand at www.autonews.com/webinars
Thank You
http://truck2020.blogspot.com Also, keep following study related posts at http://twitter.com/kalgyimesi
Welcome
Peter Brown Associate Publisher And Editorial Director Automotive News
Sanjay Rishi Vice President and Global Automotive Industry Leader IBM Global Business Services
Sanjay Rishi / IBM Global Automotive Leader Calstart HTUF / October 28, 2009
Truck 2020: Transcending Turbulence
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Interviews included the entire trucking value chain, multi-modal operators, industry regulators and associations Truck OEMs
Truck Suppliers
Value Chain
Group Lenormand
Chongqing Heavy Vehicle Group
Fleets
Bus OEMs
Regulators
Associations
Others
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Our interviews were global and comprehensive
Interviews by Region EBRIC 16% Japan 20%
Interviews by Industry Segment Others 18%
US/Canada 39% Western Europe 25%
91 executive interviews completed 13 countries Emerging countries accounted for 16%: Eastern Europe, Brazil, Russia, India and China
Value Chain 13% Fleets 9%
OEMs 35%
Suppliers 25%
60% - OEMs and suppliers 8 of the top 10 OEMs, that includes over 85% of total volume Other interviews include; regulators, dealers/bodybuilders and multi-modal operators © 2009 IBM Corporation
By 2020, there will be radical changes in the pressures facing truck executives compared to the issues they are addressing today What are the most important external forces impacting the industry Today and in 2020? 71% Technology
70%
Progress
61% 54% Globalization
Sustainability
48% 45%
48% Concerns
36% Urban Development
“Our business will change drastically as the basics of our economics and ecology is radically altered” –European Truck OEM
32% 28% Economic Stability 25% Government Influences 22% Corporate Social
Responsibility 15%, 15% 12%
2009
9%
2020
Global Labor Force
Increasing Trends Decreasing Trends © 2009 IBM Corporation
The impact of the current economic crisis will subside, but could have longer implications for those who have failed to invest Economic Stability Truck production volume has seen the largest decreases on record over the last 8 months
70%
Executives largely agree that these events will abate over time and the industry will focus on growth for the future…
28% … but, there may be residual effect from the economy. Companies deferring investment leave themselves at risk when growth resumes 2009
2020
© 2009 IBM Corporation
The monumental changes facing the industry require truck producers to navigate the road ahead carefully
Globalization efforts will be a force through the decade… …as the vehicle’s Brand is increasingly commoditized… …but embracing technology will be a clear path forward… …while new markets, partnerships and focus to service offers growth
This transition requires a new enterprise and different workforce © 2009 IBM Corporation
While the surge toward globalization is building, the path and speed of that transformation is less certain What are the most important external forces impacting the industry Today and in 2020?
Globalization 55%
54%
48%
“Suppliers and Auto OEMs are successful because they embraced globalization. Truck OEMs need to do this urgently” –Japanese Truck OEM
31% Truck 2020
“There are too many differences regionally for globalization to work for this industry”
Automotive 2020
–US Supplier 2009
2020
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Purchasing decisions will be based on regulatory and value issues, rather than brand loyalty Rate the Change in Vehicle Buying Criteria 2008 2020 Fuel Efficiency Total Cost of Ownership
Fuel Efficiency, Total Cost of Ownership, and Eco-friendly criteria are
Eco-friendly Safety
increasing in importance
Reliability Traffic congestion Configurability Credit & Financing
Brand of the vehicle is becoming much
Price
less important
Values of Company Personalization Brand -1 Decreasing
0 Unchanged
1
2 Increasing
© 2009 IBM Corporation
The developed markets, with established brands, recognize the vehicle is being commoditized
Breakdown of BRAND by Market
Fuel Efficiency Total Cost of Ownership
The developed markets agree the
Eco-friendly
brand is losing importance
Safety Reliability Traffic congestion
Developed
–0.3, n=76
Emerging
1.2, n=15
Configurability Credit & Financing Price
-1
Values of Company
0
Unchanged
1
Personalization
Brand -1 Decreasing
0 Unchanged
1
2 Increasing
© 2009 IBM Corporation
There is broad agreement across markets and industry segments that the vehicle’s brand is diminishing in importance
Brand diminishment was validated in Europe, US, OEMs in developed countries, suppliers and fleets Breakdown by Market W. Europe
–0.7
US/Canada
–0.2
Breakdown by Segment OEMs:
1.25
–0.4
Developed/Emerging
Suppliers
–0.8
Dealer/Body Japan Fleets Emerging -1
–0.5
Others 0 Unchanged
1
-1
0 Unchanged
1
“Brand reduces in importance as more similar products enter the market” –Indian Truck OEM © 2009 IBM Corporation
Truck manufacturers must transition from a brand image centered on the vehicle to one that addresses the larger transportation solution Today vehicles are sold with
By 2020, the value will be in
non-integrated add-ons
integrated solutions
Navigation / Routing
Vehicle
+
+ Advanced Vehicles
Comprehensive Serviceability
Integrated Telematics
Bundled Services
Service Contracts
“The differentiation won’t be on products, but on services” –European Truck OEM © 2009 IBM Corporation
Innovation in the vehicle will remain important as investments center on connectivity, emissions and fuel economy Rate the Level of Innovation in various aspects of the vehicle by 2020 Electrical Systems/Electronics
4.4
Softw are
4.4
Engine & Auxiliary Systems
4.2
Pow ertrain
3.9
Braking Systems
3.1
Trailer/Load
2.8
Body Exterior
2.7
Chassis
2.6
Interior
2.6
Body Structure
2.5 1
Low
2
3
“The development of software is much more important than hardware” –Japanese Truck OEM
4
5 High
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Telematics will impact everything about the vehicle and its usage Service • Remote and faster diagnostics, reducing service time • Prognostics, managing PM cycles and proactive servicing
Safety • Navigation • Speed control approaching curves, exits and turns
Driver Assistance • Route navigation, geofencing, notice of rest, fuel or service areas • Electronic payments - toll, drive thru, parking, road charging
Regulatory Compliance • Determining what roads and boundaries that the vehicle can go • Auto identification and reporting of non-compliance
Sustainability • Managing fuel economy through navigation and driver information • Switching to different power modes based on regulations
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Technology is also critical in addressing the issues of oil…
Energy and Transportation Consumption in the US
Daily US Oil consumption represented as a lake… 100m long
Other Air 6% 13%
Trucks 30%
Light Vehicles 51%
100m wide 396m deep!
…81% of US oil imports could be eliminated if all cars and trucks were fully electric © 2009 IBM Corporation
Hybrid vehicles offer the best overall opportunity for more efficient energy usage
Efficiency of each source based on cumulative effects associated with producing, transporting, and using fuel… Energy Efficiency Ratio Comparison Light Vehicles Relative to Gasoline
2.3 3.0
Heavy Vehicles Relative to Diesel
1.0
Gasoline/diesel plus ethanol and biomass blends
1.0
Compressed and liquefied natural gas Hydrogen in a fuel cell Electricity in a battery or plug in hybrid electric
1.0 0.9 1.9 2.7
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Solutions will come from many places, but hybridization will make the biggest difference by 2020
Hybridization will be applied far and wide… Plug-in hybrid Hydraulic hybrid Some applications can be electric
Alternative fuel
Retrofitting
technologies develop as infrastructure is built out
existing fleets should be encouraged
CNG LNG Methane
With as much incentives as new production…
© 2009 IBM Corporation
The US is in an outstanding position to lead this transformation We have the
We have the
We have the
entrepreneurship
innovation
incentive
More small emerging suppliers Venture capital investment
Outstanding innovation culture Many hybrid solutions are being tested here
US is enabling stimulus explicitly for hybrid trucks State-based stimulus helps further
© 2009 IBM Corporation
The combination of technology, solutions and partnerships will lead to differentiating business models Enabling technology…
packaged into solutions…
…built through partnerships
© 2009 IBM Corporation
The combination of technology, solutions and partnerships will lead to differentiating business models Enabling technology…
• Fully electric • 60,000lb Load • Recharge in 30 min
packaged into solutions…
…built through partnerships
• Price as conventional vehicle
• Partner based on applications
• Deferred fuel annuity
• Establish preferred transport green routes
• Battery swap warranty
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Industry ecosystems must align to address environmental, regulatory and customer concerns Plug in Hybrid Recharging Government - Transportation - Energy - Safety
Energy / Utilities
Truck and Bus
Other Industries - Financial Services - Biotechnology - Retail / CP
Electronics Telecommunications
Automotive - Light Vehicle
- Software
Performance Optimization
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Cross industry partnerships will be instrumental to some of the biggest issues facing the industry Truck Mfg / Fleets
Urban Traffic Management:
Government
Retailers Utilities
Intermodal Optimization:
Transition to Plugin Hybrid Fleets:
Truck Mfg / Fleets Government
Rail Shipping / Barge
“The industry doesn't realize yet how much it needs to change” –US Industry Organization
Truck Mfg / Fleets Government
Utilities Finance © 2009 IBM Corporation
This transformation requires a new enterprise and a fundamentally different workforce Rate the most critical skills for the industry in 2020 Engineering
“Leadership is especially critical in a distributed workforce”
Marketing / Selling
–North American Integrator
Product Planning
“The truck enterprise of the future has to be positioned differently in the market”
Service Technician Leadership
–European Truck OEM Software Development Production Truck 2020
Procurement
Automotive 2020
Finance 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100% © 2009 IBM Corporation
The future will be exciting for the truck industry and the industry must seize the moment To globally integrate or regionally specialize? This is the dilemma for truck manufacturers
Brand of the vehicle is being commoditized, truck manufacturers will have to evolve their definition of brand and develop solutions
Telematics is your most important investment for the future Hybrid truck development is critical for the future, particularly given increased urbanization globally The US
is leading this innovation and must continue to invest to maintain this lead
Truck manufacturers must aggressively expand their thinking about partnerships beyond traditional industry boundaries The winners by 2020 will have significantly transformed
their workforce
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Bill Van Amburg Senior Vice President CALSTART
HTUF 2009
Hybrid Truck Users Forum (HTUF) User-driven process to commercialize medium- and heavy-duty hybrid trucks Joint CALSTART-U.S. Army program (RDECOM-TARDEC-NAC) Also supported by Hewlett Foundation, support from DOE, DOT
HTUF focuses on commercializing hybrid trucks with dual-use benefits Speed commercialization and reduce overall costs by creating common fleet requirements, joint purchase commitments, increasing volumes More than 80 National Fleets and All Major Truck Makers & System Suppliers involved (partial list)
Key Take-Aways From HTUF 2009 Hybrids are real – in first, low-volume production (but low volume means higher cost) The applications are expanding – big growth in chassis/body combinations Hybrids bring big energy security, economic and emissions benefits: reduced fuel use, lower emissions and US manufacturing and engineering jobs U.S. currently is the leader in this technology – though competition is growing Public partnership to speed this industry would be useful – helping fleets buy to increase production is biggest help
Regional Heavy & Line Haul Hybrid Trucks
Kenworth, Peterbilt, Navistar and Freightliner all have Class 8 regional haul tractors (up to 55,000 GVWR single axle) All developing next generation advanced Class 8 – including electric and hybrid configurations
Mack showcased advanced hybrid line haul Class 8(full 80,000 lb GVWR); next stages add more electrification
Hydraulic Hybrids Coming of Age Several preproduction and near production models shown: Eaton, Bosch Rexroth, Parker Parallel and Series architecture FCCC – Parker series parcel strip chassis showed impressive integration, potential fuel savings
Emergence of Serious Electric Platforms Freightliner Custom Chassis and Enova showcased Joins: Navistar/Modec (production Q1 2010) Ford/Azure (Transit Connect, 2010)
Hybrid Trucks Now Entering Market Hybrid introduction 10 years behind cars but industry is real, momentum growing
Development
TOOLS:
Test prototypes and systems R&D Support
Pre-Production Field pilot assessments (10-50 vehicles)
Production Intent Assembly line builds up to 100+
Early Production Initial commercial volumes – still high incremental cost
Purchase Incentives Pre-Production Deployment Support (HTUF)
Hybrid Truck Technology Critical to U.S. Hybridization provides significant immediate benefits ENERGY SECURITY: Reduced fuel consumption (30-50%) EMISSIONS/CLIMATE: Reduced criteria (NOx) and GHG emissions (1060%) One of few strategies to improve on 2010 emissions reductions ECONOMY: North American leadership Fuel consumption reduction from HTUF field testing data in technology, manufacturing Emissions/fuel reduction from HTUF dyno testing data performed at SwRI Reductions come just from hybrid system, no additional after-treatment CO2 reductions closely tracked fuel reduction percentages
Hybrid Trucks at “Tipping Point” Hybrid truck production volumes are still too low in early market to realize price reductions However: modest volumes can move prices to within business cases needs: Need 3,000 - 5,000 driveline units/year Industry Needs: Long term R&D – energy storage, efficient components, integration Pre-production funding (10-100 vehicles per application) Commercially-focused purchase incentives
Lessons from Hybrid Launch Truck world is changing rapidly – hybrids and advanced trucks are the first salvo Users needs and demands are changing rapidly – energy efficiency, emissions, sustainability rising Trucks of the future will require very different technologies for powertrains, components, vehicle management and operation Truck makers will need new skills, non-traditional suppliers and business models to address these changes – it is becoming a high-tech industry U.S. currently is the leader in some of these first technologies – though competition is growing A multi-year suite of US strategies, investments and policies to support truck industry change is needed
Michael Stark Senior Technical Sales Manager National Accounts Freightliner Custom Chassis Corporation
CleanDrive Technologies Globalization
Michael Stark Daimler Trucks North America
Daimler Commercial Vehicle Sustainable Mobility
1
Global Hybrid Center Asia Market
Light Duty Trucks
Hybrid Technology
Conclusion First steps done. Further success factors to be investigated in next year
Major levers
Material costs
Measures Modular components System platform with scalable components, e.g. derive Medium Power system using Light & High Power system Technology enhancements Technology improvements for material cost reductions Vehicle packaging Enlarge max. addressable vehicle volume Target costing Strong Involvement of suppliers for cost reduction
Fuel savings
HEV components Define optimal HEV components for max fuel saving potential (design to point) Operation strategy Develop optimal vehicle and application HEV operation strategy
Need for action
Investigations to be extended on - component specification High-power System - Packaging concept improvement - concept competitions with suppliers
A3
Two modular hybrid systems defined Medium and Heavy Duty Application s Input
Approach HD: (Cascadia)
MD: (M2)
• Route profiles Highway: RT Interurban: City cycle:
Atlanta-Memphis Sysco Foods Nestle/FedEx
• Load profiles
Empty: 0 % payload Semi loaded: 60 % payload Fully loaded: 100 % payload Example: MD Highway: Interurban: City cycle:
52 %* 26 %* 22 %*
Empty: 30 %* at 6t Semi loaded: 45 %* at 9,6t Fully loaded:100 %* at 12t
- Based on input data approach used to calculate optimal fuel saving potentials for each vehicle** - Fuel saving potentials used as basis for HEV systems definition
• Limiting factors for system are
High Power System
• Energy analysis Voltage [V]
nom. Capacity [kWh]
4,8
Number of cells
188
Medium Power System
• Reference Vehicles
Results
Voltage [V]
360
Battery Power [kW]
720 const.
45
peak
110
effect.
65 - 100
layout
- legislation (max. voltage 750V) - available technology for battery (cell output limited) - available technology for inverter
Battery Power [kW]
const.
23
peak
55
effect.
32 - 50
nom. Capacity [kWh]
2,4
Number of cells
94
Looking Forward Hydraulic Hybrid Advanced “Engine Off” Feature 50% - 70% increase in MPG
All-electric Plug-In Vehicles Zero emissions - $0.08 - $0.10 per mile energy cost vs. $0.25 - $0.48 per mile for comparable diesel or gas Vehiclen
DTNA Global Family
Thank You
Q&A
Visit this webinar on demand at www.autonews.com/webinars
Thank You
Related Documents
Ibm Truck 2020 Transcending Turbulence
June 2020 3
Enabling Collaboration: Ibm Webinar Presentation
April 2020 13
Issues Presentation Guideline 2020
December 2019 5
2020 Olympic Bid Presentation
November 2019 2
Ibm Bangalore Presentation (1)
July 2020 7More Documents from "Elizabeth Reeves"
Ibm Truck 2020 Transcending Turbulence
June 2020 3
Derecho Comparado.docx
December 2019 14