18 January 2009
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Asian Tiger Capital Partners
Weekly News Update
AT Capital Weekly Update
Key themes in this issue are: Bangladesh Overview: • Last week, Bangladesh Bank (BB) Governor Salehuddin Ahmed presented the Bank’s Monetary Policy Statement for the second half of FY 09 (Jan‐June 2009). • It was a relatively upbeat assessment of the major trends in the economy and underlined the continued resilience of the Bangladesh economy, despite the clear ongoing deterioration in the global macroeconomic backdrop. • We discuss some of the highlights inside but remain concerned that the risks to the Bangladesh growth picture in 2009 are greater than the BD authorities assume. • The evidence we have highlighted in recent weeklies of a worsening global economic backdrop has been re‐enforced but what appears to be a new wave of the banking crisis in the face of the USD 15bn Q4 loss from Merrill Lynch forcing a USD 123bn package for Bank of America. • Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammad al‐Sabah stated on Jan 16 that that about 60 percent of development projects "have either been postponed or cancelled" by the six‐nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states because of the global meltdown. It is difficult not to expect a slowdown in BD remittances given this backdrop. • Fazlul Hoque, president of Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters’ Association suggested that the government should immediately form a high‐profile taskforce to weigh and monitor impacts of global recession on Bangladesh’s export sector.
• The new government appears cognizant of the need to prepare for deterioration in economic conditions. The Coordination Council on Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate of the finance ministry is expected to meet at the end of this month to explore strategies for bringing stability in the country’s balance of payments to contain inflation and keep the exchange rate of taka “at a reasonable level” Special Focus: th On Saturday 17 January 2009 Asian Tiger Capital Partners hosted a pharma sector strategy • meeting on ‘Challenges and Opportunities for the Pharmaceutical Sector in Bangladesh’. • The meeting was attended and supported by the CEO and management team of the most EDITORS important pharmaceutical companies along with representatives of the Bangladesh Pharmaceutical Society, the Directorate of Drug Administration • Although Bangladeshi pharmaceutical exports have shown significant growth over the last few Ifty Islam years, the total sales (approximately USD 50mn) still fall short of the total import of raw materials Managing Partner (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API)) required to manufacture finished pharmaceutical ifty.islam@at‐capital.com products which is over USD 100mn. • The meeting discussed strategies to maximize opportunities for BD Pharma companies to globalize Syeed Khan and expand exports Partner syeed.khan@at‐capital.com Jisha Sarwar Senior Research Associate Global Banking Nerves Resurface jisha.sarwar@at‐capital.com Asian Tiger Capital Partners UTC Building, Level 16 8 Panthapath, Dhaka‐1215 Bangladesh Tel: 8155144, 8110345 Fax: 9118582 www.at‐capital.com
18 January 2009
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Contents
Page
Bangladesh Overview
3
Global economic backdrop continues to worsen BKMEA President argues for a financial taskforce Finance Coordination Council to meet
3 3 3
Highlight of the Bangladesh Bank Monetary Policy Statement
4
Special Focus Asian Tiger Capital Pharma Sector Strategy Meeting ‐ ‘Challenges and Opportunities for the Pharmaceutical Industry in 6 Bangladesh’
Stock Market Weekly
Weekly Stock Market Commentary Stock Market News
9 10
Economics Economics News Sector News
Food & Agriculture
15
Banking/ Aviation
16
Infrastructure & Energy
17
8
12 13 15
Real Estate/ Telecoms
19
Textiles
20
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18 January 2009
Bangladesh Overview Global economic backdrop continues to worsen Last week, Bangladesh Bank (BB) Governor Salehuddin Ahmed presented the Bank’s Monetary Policy Statement for the second half of FY 09 (Jan‐June 2009). It was a relatively upbeat assessment of the major trends in the economy and underlined the continued resilience of the Bangladesh economy, despite the clear ongoing deterioration in the global macroeconomic backdrop (We comment on the highlights of the BB’s statement below). One has to respect the ongoing strength of the economic data itself. However, we have been relatively more bearish on the economic outlook, arguing that the external impact of the slowdown in both RMG and especially remittances is likely to come through with a lag in the 2009 data. We still believe this to be the case. The evidence we have highlighted in recent weeklies has been re‐ enforced but what appears to be a new wave of the banking crisis in the face of the USD 15bn Q4 loss from Merrill Lynch forcing a USD 123bn package for Bank of America. Citigroup has been split in two as a result of USD 6 bn+ Q4 losses and whose stock price has fallen almost 40% in the past week or so. Perhaps more concerning was the 25% collapse in the last hour of Thursday’s trading in the stock price of Barclays Bank, the only UK bank not to accept any government funding. The UK Treasury and Bank of England are working flat out over the weekend to pull together a fresh capital injection into the UK banking system that may involve the “Bad Bank” model employed by the Swiss authorities to put UBS’s toxic assets in a new holding structure. But ITEM has forecast 2009 UK growth of ‐2.7% with 2010 also seeing a contraction in GDP The German economics minister suggested his country will likely see 2009 growth of ‐2.5% or worse. Arab leaders will hold their first ever economic summit on January 19‐20 will discuss the impact of the worldwide economic melt own on the 22 Arab countries. Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammad al‐Sabah stated on Jan 16 that "The Arab world has lost 2.5 trillion dollars in the past four months" as a result of the global financial crisis. He also said that about 60 percent of development projects "have either been postponed or cancelled" by the six‐nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states because of the global meltdown. It is difficult not to expect a slowdown in remittances given this backdrop. BKMEA President argues for a financial taskforce Fazlul Hoque, president of Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters’ Association. Earlier, the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters’ Association president, suggested that the government should immediately form a high‐profile taskforce to weigh and monitor impacts of global recession on Bangladesh’s export sector. In an interview with New Age on Saturday, the BKMEA head claimed that global recession had already started to bite Bangladesh’s export trades, though not by
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Ifty Islam, Managing Partner ifty.islam@at‐capital.com pushing down the export volumes but by cutting the prices. He stated that ‘Industry insiders are already counting the number of bites of global recession on Bangladesh’s exports. Importers are cutting further and further the prices and agreed orders are being deferred increasingly”. Referring to the seesaw growth in export earnings traced in October and November by the government, he said such fluctuations indicated unrest among the importers. Interestingly, when asked whether a devaluation of the local currency would bolster the exporters, Hoque suggested that might not be the right strategy saying he understands that a weaker currency could instigate rise in inflation again by making imported commodities costlier. He argued that ‘The government can provide incentives to exporters through funds like the Export Performance Scheme. Such funds will help exporters offset the price erosions and stay competitive,’ and pointed out that with the Turkish knitwear industry struggling hard in recent times due to increased cost of production, Bangladesh’s knitwear industry sees the opportunity to become second to China on the global market of imported knitwear within three years. Finance Coordination Council to meet The new government appears cognizant of the need to prepare for deterioration in economic conditions. The Coordination Council on Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate of the finance ministry is expected to meet at the end of this month to explore strategies for bringing stability in the country’s balance of payments to contain inflation and keep the exchange rate of taka “at a reasonable level”. A senior Finance ministry official was quoted as stating that ‘The council meeting will decide strategies for implementing the monetary policy recently announced by the central bank and harmonising it with government’s fiscal policy,’. The official said the meeting also would examine the country’s current balance of payments situation, budget deficit and inflation. . Finance minister Abul Maal Abdul Muhith will chair the council meeting at the ministry, with commerce minister Faruk Khan, planning minister AK Khandokar, Bangladesh Bank governor Salehuddin Ahmed, finance secretary Mohammed Tareq, National Board of Revenue chairman Abdul Mazid, and planning secretary Zafar Ahmed Chowdhury expected to be attending. Finance ministry sources said the ministry sent a letter last week to the central bank asking it to prepare three papers – one on the current BoP situation, one on inflation, and the last on exchange rate of taka – to be tabled at the meeting. The ministry also asked the Bangladesh Bank to send three experts on the above three subjects to the coordination council meeting. The last meeting of the council was held in June 2008 before announcing the national budget by the interim government. The renewed strengthening of the USD is recent weeks as illustrated in the chart below of the Dollar Index is likely to see a re‐newed consideration of whether a BDT depreciation makes sense. But appears from all the comments from Bangladesh Bank officials that any early move on the exchange rate is unlikely.
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18 January 2009
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Highlights of the Bangladesh Bank Monetary Policy Statement BB Optimistic that growth will remain resilient but we see risks on export demand and remittances in 2009 BB: “Attainment of the initially projected 6.5 percent FY09 real GDP growth therefore still remains a realistic possibility subject to export growth not weakening very substantially; and even in a more downbeat scenario of significant slowdown in export, FY09 real GDP growth can be expected to be above or around 6.0 percent. The overall growth outlook will be clearer in Q3 FY09, with information on post Christmas export trends to North American and European markets… Because of the limited openness and exposure to short term external capital flows, the Bangladesh economy has thus far remained well shielded from the financial turmoil and credit crunch in the global financial market.”
BB expects Inflation to decline but we see risks of it slowing faster than expected given commodity trends BB: “CPI inflation is expected to decline further, to around 8.5 percent by the end of FY09, against the initial projection of 9.0 percent in the MPS issued in July 08.”
ATC Comment: We are more pessimistic on Bangladesh’s growth prospects in calendar year 2009 given the downwards risks to remittances and the likely pressures on non-RMG sectors such as frozen food and jute. Even with RMG there is a risk significant margins squeeze from global clothing retailers as the global economic outlook turns more grim. Our central expectations are for GDP growth to be 5% 5.5% for calendar year 2009 versus the 6.5% forecast from BB.
BB does not plan any easing of monetary policy conditions BB: “The revised outlook for FY09 GDP growth and CPI inflation mentioned above warrant no major change in the monetary policy stance announced in the July 08 issue of MPS seeking to ensure adequate monetary accommodation for 6.5 percent real GDP growth in a scenario of 9.0 percent CPI inflation. Unlike economies facing heavy capital outflows and credit crunch in the current global turmoil, credit and liquidity conditions remain easy in the Bangladesh economy, with no need for any blanket, economy‐ wide monetary or fiscal stimulus. However, problems and weaknesses if any arising in specific sectors will be addressed with appropriate monetary and fiscal support.”
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18 January 2009
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Source: Bangladesh Bank
Source: Bangladesh Bank
BB remains concerned that strong credit growth is fuelling asset price bubbles, especially in housing BB: “The year‐on‐year growth of domestic credit has remained high (24.01 percent as of November 08, with 24.3 percent growth in credit to private sector) in H1 FY 09, well above what would be warranted for the initially projected 6.5 percent real GDP growth and 9.0 percent CPI inflation or for the revised projections made here. Apart from delaying pass through of declining international prices into domestic consumer prices, this high credit growth has created bubble‐like pressures on real estate prices, and is also causing high asset growth in non‐essential, even wasteful ‘lifestyle’ loans for such purposes as ostentatious wedding festivities, holidaying abroad, conspicuous consumption etc.”
BB will look to target credit growth towards Agriculture and SMEs and away from consumption BB: “BB will continue to support adequate credit growth for activities facilitating production and supply of goods and services, providing refinance against lending in the priority sectors (SME, agriculture, low cost housing etc.) under‐served by the market; while discouraging excessive expansion of non‐essential consumer credit and similar other demand‐side lending… BB policies accord priority to expansion of relative shares of supply side loans such as those for agriculture and SMEs, and not of non‐essential demand side consumer loans. This does not mean that consumer lending must necessarily decline or stagnate, but that it should grow no faster than the overall growth rate of bank lending.” BB focusing on increasing bank capital ratios and equity base to reduce excessive leverage BB: “BB has introduced Basel II capital adequacy assessment for banks from January 2009 (initially on a parallel run side by side with the requirements based on Basel I) to instill precise quantitative awareness in banks about all material risks associated with their operations vis‐à‐vis their capital bases. Further, to prevent the kind of gross risk management failure that brought many major global financial institutions down to their knees in the ongoing global financial turmoil, BB has initiated steps to get the core risk management guidelines issued in 2003 revised and updated by the local bankers associations, in line with subsequent developments in global best practices compiled and issued from time to time by the Basel Committee for effective Bank Supervision (BCBS). The tendency in Bangladesh of dependence on high borrowing instead of equity has strained the availability of lending resources for financing new growth supportive projects, especially large infrastructure or manufacturing projects. BB feels that it is high time for introducing mandatory safe limits of debt equity ratios in bank lending to projects, to prevent tendencies of excessive leveraging, a major factor deepening the financial distresses and economic slowdown in the current turmoil.”
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18 January 2009
Special Focus Asian Tiger Capital Pharma Sector Strategy Meeting ‘Challenges and Opportunities for the Pharmaceutical Industry in Bangladesh’ On Saturday 17th January 2009 Asian Tiger Capital Partners hosted the pharma sector strategy meeting ‘Challenges and Opportunities for the Pharmaceutical Sector in Bangladesh’ at their corporate offices in UTC Tower, Level 16 at 8 Panthapath, Dhaka. This was the start of an important initiative to explore how Bangladesh can take advantage of the globally changing pharmaceutical environment. The meeting was attended and supported by the CEO and management team of the most important pharmaceutical companies along with representatives of the Bangladesh Pharmaceutical Society, the Directorate of Drug Administration, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare and international representatives. It was widely covered on all the national news media. The participants discussed Global Market Trends following a presentation by Mr Aminur Rahman, Managing Director of IMS Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Mr Rahman highlighted seven challenges facing the global industry. Pharmaceutical growth in the top seven markets is waning. US and Europe reported sales growth of 4‐5% while in Japan the figure was 1‐2%. These are historic low figures for all these markets. In contrast many emerging and frontier markets have seen a reverse trend of increasing growth. China, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, India, Turkey and Russia all grew at 12‐13% in 2008 and has a collective market of $85‐90bn. India’s contribution to growth in 2011 is forecasted to increase from 16 to 21% making it the second highest growth contributor after China. Bangladesh has also maintained double‐digit growth and is expected to be a $1bn market by 2018 according to IMS trend analysis. Patent expiration of many blockbuster drugs is one reason for the downturn in growth. Approximately $13bn in annual sales was lost due to patent expiry in 2007 while in 2008 it was even higher at $20bn. It is forecast that by 2012 almost $60bn in lost revenue will be due to patent expiration. Undoubtedly this will result in a
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
new wave of generic drugs entering the marketplace and both the volume and market share of generic drugs will continue to increase. About 10% by sales of all pharmaceutical products is already generics and in many countries national and stakeholder pressure will only increase generic substitution. Bangladesh has a successful generic pharmaceutical manufacturing base with 12% average growth over the last 5 years. Pharmaceutical sales have crossed 4,000 crore (nearly $600m). There are 245 registered companies that are producing over 5000 brands in more than 8000 different dosage forms and strengths. Recent years has seen significant capital investment to upgrade and build new manufacturing facilities that are compliant with international standards. Square, Renata and Eskayef have facilities that are certified by overseas agencies. These new facilities will permit growth in the exportation of medicinal products to overseas markets. Although Bangladeshi pharmaceutical exports have shown significant growth over the last few years the total sales (approximately $50m) still fall short of the total importation of raw material (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API)) required to manufacture finished pharmaceutical products which is over $100m. This is in stark contrast to the $10bn export market captured by ready‐made garment sector. There is fierce competition in sourcing generic drugs in most countries, especially in the larger regulated and more mature markets. How can Bangladesh compete in this global arena and provide quality medicines at low prices overseas without neglecting the local market? Which markets should be targeted with which products? What are the regulatory requirements to enter these markets? These were all important challenges that were discussed at the meeting in order to find the opportunities that clearly exist for Bangladesh. Nazmul Hassan, Managing Director of Beximco and Secretary General of the Bangladesh Association of Pharmaceutical Industry asked at the meeting whether pharmaceuticals can become a major export sector for Bangladesh. Mr Hasan presented data that shows labor and white collar labor is both cheaper in Bangladesh. The 2008 IMF country report monthly wage for Bangladeshi labor in $56 compared to $324 for India. Non labor wage costs are also
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18 January 2009 higher in many countries in the region compared to Bangladesh. Pharmacists and engineers can be employed in Bangladesh at half the cost f neighboring India. Power is another major cost for the generic pharma manufacturing industry. Bangladeshi pharma uses gas which makes it one of the lowest power costs in the world. While this is all encouraging but Mr Ifty Islam asked My Nazmul Hassan to explain why cheaper manufacturing base and lower power and labor cost has not resulted in increasing market share overseas. Mr Hassan is confident that what we are seeing is a natural lag phase since the investment in overseas accredited manufacturing facilities and the drive to capture export orders is a recent phenomenon. Even with this lag phase some felt that Bangladesh faces challenges both in the medicines produced for the local market as well as securing pharmaceutical exports overseas. Bangladesh will need to ensure that the quality of the medicines produced for the local market meets local regulatory standards and similarly cGMP certification and overseas accreditation of new manufacturing facilities need to remain compliant with these standards. Even when good quality medicines are produced many regulated markets will require bioequivalence testing to ensure that the products are handled by the patient identically to the reference drug. Depending on the markets and volumes considered these tests may be prohibitively expensive and moreover there are no local accredited facilities to conduct Bioavailability and Bioequivalence (BABE) testing. There are about 450 generic compounds registered as medicinal products in Bangladesh. Many manufacturers produce their own brands of these compounds which is why there are over 5000 brands on the market. In many regulated markets the manufacturer is required to demonstrate that these brands are ‘Bioequivalent’ (BE) and that not only the same chemicals have been used in the manufacture but also that the human body handles the absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion of these brands identically. These BE studies are not required in some countries such as Bangladesh and therefore Bangladesh has not developed facilities to conduct these clinical BE studies locally. However, if Bangladesh wants to increase exports of drugs to regulated markets these studies have to be carried out. This requires investment in people, processes and equipment and over the longer term may add value to the pharmaceutical sector in Bangladesh. This is thus both a challenge and an opportunity.
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Mr Kaiser Kabir, Managing Director Renata made a passionate plea for the Government of Bangladesh to permit companies to make overseas acquisitions. With regards to the pharma sector this is particularly important since it takes a considerable period of time to prepare and submit regulatory dossiers fro drug approval and marketing authorizations for each drug. Acquisition of an overseas pharmaceutical company in a regulated market will allow almost immediate access to the regulated market. Mr Kabir gave examples of how India has in recent years invested in great brands overseas such as Landrover, Jaguar, Corus Steel and the German pharma company BetaPharm. He showed that over the last 10 years Indian and Chinese companies have been transformed from inward‐looking, rent‐seeking, low value‐added operations to world class entities shaking up the global corporate landscape. A significant proportion of the capital for these overseas investments are raised overseas and there would naturally be all the appropriate diligence to ensure that all local and international standards are adhered to. Asian Tiger Capital Senior Advisor, Dr Iqbal Hussain, responsible for the pharma and healthcare business and the moderator of the meeting, offered his support to parties that may be interested in engaging ATC in doing feasibility studies and formally exploring any of the opportunities that were discussed. Indeed Bangladesh has immense opportunities in the pharma sector both locally and overseas. Asian Tiger Capital, with its corporate HQ in Dhaka has a global reach to provide support of any number of pharma and healthcare projects. Mr Ifty Islam and Dr Hussain offered to meet with interested parties to discuss the framework by which these collaborations and cooperative alliances can be developed. Dr. Iqbal F Hussain BSc MBBS FRCS MSc(Urol) Senior Advisor Asian Tiger Capital Partners Ltd.
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18 January 2009
Stock Market Weekly
DSE performance: 52 weeks
Market news
• •
LankaBangla to open three more branches
•
Investor sentiment softens for Banks with concerns over 2009 earnings outlook
•
Bangladesh Bank announces further regulation for Banks
Market fall driven by banks falling 4%
• Retail speculation : Seven out of the top ten gainers were Z‐list stocks Regional stock market performance (last week)
DSE performance: 30 days
Market summary Index performance Opening of this week Closing of this week Change within a week (%) Change within a week (Point) Capitalization and turnover Number of Trading Days Market Capitalization (USD bn) Total Turnover (USD mn) Daily Avg. Turnover (USD mn) Total Volume (mn) Daily Avg. Volume (mn)
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Weighted avg. P/E Ratio*
This Week Last Week % Change
*Weighted on Market Cap.
17.34 17.83 -2.7%
Valuation snapshot
DSE General Index
DSE 20
2760.67 2695.58 -2.4% -65.1
2,271.2 2,199.3 -3.2% -71.9
This Week
Last Week
% Change
5 15.15 255 50.91 156
4 15.12 236 59.02 136
31
34
0.24% 7.8% -13.7% 14.6% -8.3%
Issues
Advanced Declined Unchanged
Not Traded
This Week 104 158 2 31
Last Week 155 102 4 31
Banks Cement Ceramic Engineering Food & Allied Fuel & Power Insurance Investment IT Jute Miscellaneous Paper & Printing Pharmaceuticals Service & Real Estate Tannery Textiles
Aug‐08 19.08 10.96 49.92 39.11 17.85 17.81 23.17 45.08 41.44 16.16 25.46 8.36 23.97 20.57 19.05 15.74
Sector P/E Sep‐08 Oct‐08 Nov‐08 18.24 15.62 15.62 10.34 10.32 8.91 43.93 41.76 32.17 41.36 40.8 31.94 19.44 17.09 14.77 20.2 19.14 16.29 24.77 23.12 17.69 55.48 28.93 21.42 45.64 47.89 33.96 16.16 14.18 14.18 33.95 32.2 23.32 8.08 9.97 7.32 28.45 30.25 26.26 22.87 23.55 18.74 19.89 18.44 14.87 15.45 14.55 12.43 Source: Dhaka Stock Exchange
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18 January 2009
Weekly Stock Market Commentary The market was down by 2.4% this week, following the 1.7% decline in the previous week. The daily average turnover of this week was USD 50.91mn, 13.7% lower than the previous week. Out of 295 issues, 104 advanced, 158 declined, 2 remain unchanged and 31 not traded. Banks and Non Bank Financial Institution stocks saw the largest falls down around 4% in the week. The weekly drop was largely driven by the fall in this sector as they collectively constitute 51% of listed stocks. We believe investor sentiment has softened due the following reasons: 1. Lower than expected full year 2008 earnings: With full year results season underway for Banks, we expect earnings will fall short of expectations in the second half of the year, as the sector was under pressure as a result of the global crisis, as banks faced liquidity pressure with difficulties opening LC’s as their international counterparties remain under pressure, and commodities derived trade finance revenues fallings, as commodities and fuel prices plummeted. That said 2008 has not been a bad year, with first half year profits up 48% from prior year amongst private commercial banks. However, there was likely an expectation of the second half to follow suit in the price. 2. In 2009 Trade Finance earnings are expected to remain under pressure: We expect a continuation of pressures felt in Q3 2008, with commodities prices remaining low. A large component of banking earnings is derived from the provision of Trade Finance for the import of materials into the country. To a lesser extent we expect remittance related banking revenues to also face pressures as the recession deepens in the global economy. 3. Bangladesh Bank Monetary Policy statement: In the policy statement Bangladesh Bank (‘BB’) discussed: a. Increased regulation and a move to increase equity component of lending may limit risk taking: BB has initiated steps to revise the core risk management guidelines issued in 2003, in line with subsequent developments in global best practices compiled and issued from time to time by the Basel Committee for
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
effective Bank Supervision (BCBS). The tendency in Bangladesh of dependence on high borrowing instead of equity has strained the availability of lending resources for financing new growth supportive projects, especially large infrastructure or manufacturing projects. BB feels that it is high time for introducing mandatory safe limits of debt equity ratios in bank lending to projects, to prevent excessive leveraging. b. Basel II compliance to come into force from January 2009: Basel II capital adequacy requirements and the consequent need to raise capital through either Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital will mean for those banks that have yet to meet the requirements, they are likely to issue equity.. While quality stocks fell, the rise of Z‐list stocks is indicative of the speculative and retail driven nature of the market. Z‐list stocks are categorised by virtue of their lack of compliance with SEC regulations (eg filing of accounts) or are unprofitable – so are largely constituted of companies lacking fundamental qualities – that said there are some ‘good’ stocks, such as Lafarge which is emerging from its green field investment stage. Among the top ten gainers of the last week seven companies were from ‘Z’ category shares. A few of the Z‐ list companies announced dividends which likely pulled up prices partially. Titas Gas was the turnover leader with shares worth BDT 1.76bn (USD 25.56mn) traded, accounting for about 10.2% of the week's total market turnover.
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18 January 2009
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Stock Market News LankaBangla to open three more branches The Daily Star, Monday January 12, 2009 LankaBangla Securities plans to open at least three more branches in and outside Dhaka this year. At present, LankaBangla has seven branches across the country ‐‐ three in Dhaka and Chittagong each and one in Sylhet. LankaBangla, an authorized brokerage house, also plans to organise road shows abroad to attract foreign investors to the Bangladesh stock market. The brokerage house said it would develop internal resources such as upgrading IT infrastructure and enlarging the capacity and quality of its research team through training. LankaBangla retained its position as the most active member for a third year on the Dhaka Stock Exchange and for a fourth year on the Chittagong Stock Exchange. LankaBangla accounted for 15% of the total trading on the DSE and 28% on the CSE in 2008. LankaBangla is a subsidiary of LankaBangla Finance, a joint venture financial institution established with multinational collaboration. Sampath Bank of Sri Lanka, First Gulf Asia Holdings, and local entities such as One Bank, SSC Holdings and Shanta Apparels own stakes in LankaBangla Finance. The other top nine brokers in terms of turnover in 2008 were ICB Securities Trading Company, AB Bank Foundation, IDLC Securities, Prime Finance and Investment Securities, Multi Securities and Services, NCC Bank, Dhaka Bank, CMSL Securities and Wifang Securities. There are 238 members on the DSE and 137 on the CSE. http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=70934
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18 January 2009
DGEN Performance YTD
DGEN Performance LTM
Turnover leaders (All figures in mn) BDT 1370 Titas Gas Shinepukur Ceramics 1291 Limited 1195 BEXIMCO 1154 Summit Power 759 Beximco Pharma 525 Grameen One: Scheme2 515 Aims 1st M.F. 446 ACI Formulation Ltd. 302 Summit Alliance Port Ltd. 286 Keya Cosmetics
Best performers* USD 19.9 18.8 17.4 16.8 11.0 7.6 7.5 6.5 4.4 4.2
Source: Dhaka Stock Exchange
Market cap. by sector* Banks Fuel & Power Pharmaceuticals Insurance Cement Miscellaneous Engineering Foods Textile Service & Real Estate Tannery Ceramics IT Paper & Printing Jute Total
51.0% 13.8% 11.6% 5.5% 5.1% 3.0% 2.4% 2.1% 1.9% 1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.03% 100%
Worst performers*
Al-Haj Textile Maq Paper Quasem Textile Quasem Silk M. Hossain Garments
% Change 61.7% 32.7% 31.4% 31.3% 30.2%
Beximco Synthetics Meghna PET Beach Hatchery Ltd. Sinobangla Industries Dynami Textile
28.4% 24.4% 23.3% 20.8% 19.1%
% Change -19.7% -16.8% -12.0% -11.0% -10.2%
Lexco Metalex Corporation Wata Chemicals ICB Islamic Bank Ltd. Golden Son National Housing Finance and Investment Ltd. Pharma Aid 2nd ICB M.F Apex Adelchi Footwear 1st Lease International
-9.7% -9.5% -9.3% -8.3% -7.6%
*By closing price Source: Dhaka Stock Exchange
Correlation with other indices*
S&P500
S&P500
1
Sensex
NIKKEI225
Hangseng
DSE
KSE100
Sensex
0.609533
1
NIKKEI225
0.479296
0.57751
1
KSE100
0.137983
0.245628
0.136849
1
SSECI
0.315464
0.411735
0.245613
0.09449
SSECI
FTSE100
1
FTSE100
0.843726
0.610483
0.494904
0.238387
0.431538
1
Hangseng
0.704434
0.677905
0.526227
0.110829
0.509843
0.786434
DSE
0.161589
0.193995
0.103366
1
‐0.05588 0.035032 0.131261 0.143725 * Based on the last 86 months’ USD returns Source: AT Capital Research
1
*As of November 30, 2008
Research Team Ifty Islam Managing Partner
Syeed Khan
Partner
ifty.islam@at‐capital.com
syeed.khan@at‐capital.com
Mohammad Emran Hasan Senior Associate
emran.hasan@at‐capital.com
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AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
18 January 2009
Economics Selected macroeconomic indicators
Market news
13‐Jan‐08
06‐Jan‐09
13‐Jan‐09
Forex reserves (USD mn)
5112.05
5349.17
5471.15
USD‐BDT average rate
68.5800
68.9500
68.9500
2.95
9.42
9.32
Call money rate
Dec‐07 Remittances (USD mn) Annual %age change
Dec‐08
635.34
765.79
7,914.78
14.46
20.53
32.39
P
Oct‐07 Imports (USD mn) Annual %age change
Oct‐08
Annual %age change
2007‐08
1,649.90
2,090.40
21,629.00
27.18
26.70
26.07
P
Nov ‐07 Exports (USD mn)
2007‐08
Nov ‐08
2007‐08
1144.47
1297.47
14,110.80
24.94
13.37
15.87
• •
BB decides to set a minimum credit target for agriculture BB fixes a target for private sector credit growth
•
Govt. sees 90pc ADP implementation: Six months' achievement only 24pc
•
Market lukewarm to price pledges
•
Exports post 13% rise
Latest treasury yields
Auction date P
Sep‐07 Current A/C Balance (USD mn)
Sep‐08
20.00
Tax revenue (USD mn) Annual %age change
Weighted average yield
2007‐08
46.00 P
Nov‐07
Tenor & security type
Nov‐08
672.00
2007‐08
Dec-08
91-day T-bill
7.91%
Dec-08
182-day T-bill
8.16%
Dec-08
364-day T-bill
8.58% 10.60%
506.24
551.57
6,868.43
Dec-08
5-year T-bond
26.59
8.96
27.06
Dec-08
10-year T-bond
11.72%
Source: Bangladesh Bank Source: Selected indicators by Bangladesh Bank, 14 January 2008
Exports went up by 13.37 % in November 2008 following negative growth in October
Latest Bangladesh Inflation Rates Sep‐08 General
Nov‐08
209.31
10.19
7.26
6.12
227.66
226.88
223.98
Inflation Food
Oct‐08
210.14
207.14
Inflation
12.07
8.08
6.68
Non‐food
187.10
186.13
184.95
5.95
5.25
Inflation
7.19
Source: Bangladesh Bank
Jisha Sarwar
Source: EPB
Senior Research Associate Jisha.sarwar@at‐capital.com
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18 January 2009
Economic News BB decides to set a minimum credit target for agriculture The Daily Star, Friday January 16th, 2009 The Bangladesh Bank (BB) has decided to set a minimum requirement for the amount that private local banks and foreign commercial banks should lend to farmers, in order to boost agricultural production. In FY 2008, 30 private commercial banks (PCBs) disbursed BDT 15.6bn (USD 0.23bn) in farm loans, while nine foreign commercial banks (FCBs) disbursed only BDT 8.5bn (USD 0.12bn). According to a central bank official, “The contribution of the private local and foreign banks in agricultural lending still remained poor compared to that of the state‐owned and specialized lenders”. Four state‐owned and five specialised banks, including Bangladesh Krishi Bank (BKB), disbursed BDT 61.67bn (USD 0.90bn) and BDT 52.93bn (USD 0.77bn) for agricultural purposes in FY 08 and FY 07 respectively. FCBs operating in Bangladesh did not disburse any agricultural loan before the last fiscal year ended in June 2008, according to BB statistics. Regarding the poor presence of some PCBs and FCBs in rural areas, the official said the central bank has asked the banks to collaborate with other banks and NGOs located in rural areas to disburse farm credit. http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=71508
BB fixes a target for private sector credit growth The Daily Star, Thursday January 15th, 2009 Bangladesh Bank (BB) yesterday fixed the target for private sector credit growth at 18.5 %, bringing it down by 6.44 percentage points. The BB in its monetary policy statement, which was released yesterday, said private sector credit growth, which was 24.94 % in FY 08, rose to 26.5 % in September 2008 and was brought down to 24.31 % in November. There is a plan to bring it down to 18.5 % by June. However, public sector credit growth including net government credit will be increased by 15.38 percentage points to 27.25% by June 2009, up from 11.87 % in FY 08. In November public sector credit growth increased to 23.02 %.
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The monetary policy also stated, "BB will continue to support adequate credit growth for activities facilitating production and supply of goods and services, providing refinance against lending in the priority sectors such as SME, agriculture and low‐cost housing under‐served by the market." The central bank will discourage excessive expansion of non‐ essential consumer credit. The BB said attaining the initially projected 6.5 % real GDP growth in FY09 still remains realistic, given that export growth will not slow substantially. http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news‐details.php?nid=71384
Govt. sees 90pc ADP implementation: Six months' achievement only 24pc The Daily Star, Wednesday January 14th, 2009 The new government expects to implement 90 % of the Annual Development Programme (ADP) by the end of the fiscal year, although only 24 % has been implemented during the first six months. Out of BDT 256.00bn (USD 3.72bn) allocated for the ADP, BDT 60.23bn (USD 0.87bn) was implemented during the July‐ December period. http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news‐details.php?nid=71237
Market lukewarm to price pledges The Daily Star, Tuesday January 13th, 2009 Prices of some basic commodities like rice and edible oil fell in the local market recently. The beginning of this year's Aman harvest and the fall in the price of soybean oil in the global market explain the decline in prices. Over the last two weeks, the price of coarse rice dropped by over 12 %, while the price of fine and medium quality rice has also declined.
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18 January 2009 According to traders the new government's pledges to reduce prices of essentials and an overall drop in global commodity prices have increased consumers' expectations about price cuts. The price of soybean oil, for both pre‐packed and open varieties, fell by 15 to 20 % since December 28, 2008, according to the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh data. On the other hand, prices of some other essentials like potato, onion and winter vegetables rose by as much as a 100 % during the last two weeks, due to a scarce supply. Traders said that the foggy weather is partly to blame for the shortage in supply of certain vegetables. The prices of onions, a bulk of which comes from India, also soared in local markets, following the jump in prices in the Indian market which was also caused due to unpredictable weather conditions. http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=71064 Exports post 13% rise The Daily Star, Monday January 12th, 2009 Exports went up by 13.37 % in November 2008 following negative export growth in October. In October 2008, the country's export earnings fell by 7.48 % from a year ago, standing at USD 867.69mn compared to USD 941.48mn in October 2007. Exports earnings stood at USD 6.6bn during July – Nov 2008, up by 26.8% from the same period a year ago. Chemical products earned USD 168.48mn posting a 120.38 % growth, tobacco USD 23.53mn growing by over 80 %, petroleum by‐products USD 79.69mn with 67.73 % growth and agro‐ processed food earned USD 23.20mn growing by over 50 %.
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But vegetables, camera parts, cut flower/foliage, raw jute, handicrafts, jute goods and electronics posted negative growth during the period. Talking about the export performance, President of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) Anwar‐Ul‐Alam Chowdhury Parvez said despite a fall in October, the overall export in December‐January period would be positive as the RMG sector received a good number of export orders for the time. http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news‐details.php?nid=70932
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18 January 2009
Sector News
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Food & Agriculture Grameen Danone Foods enters The Daily Star, Sunday, January 18, 2009 Grameen Danone Foods Ltd entered Dhaka’s market with its nutrient‐rich 'Shakti' brand food items. The company plans to sell its products at higher prices in Dhaka for the time being in order to compensate for selling at cheaper rates in rural areas. The company will sell its items at BDT 10 and BDT 12 in Dhaka compared to BDT 5 to BDT 7 charged in the northern part of the country. Grameen Danone, a joint venture between Grameen Group and global leader for food products Groupe Danone, entered Dhaka’s market as it was incurring losses due to selling products at lower prices in rural areas. http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=71797 Fertilizer prices halved: Markdown to give Boro major boost; govt. subsidy for non‐urea fertilizers will now stand at BDT 27bn (USD 394mn) The Daily Star, Thursday, January 15, 2009 The government cut prices of non‐urea fertilizers by almost half per kilogram to help farmers during the country's Boro crop season. The following graph reflects different price changes of different fertilizers. Farmers, however, will have to buy urea at the previous price of BDT 12 a kg. The move is meant to bring down the prices of essentials by cutting the farmers' production cost, which soared recently because of a rise in prices of diesel and fertilizer. The government cut prices of non‐urea fertilizers after reducing the price of diesel. Agriculture experts say the reduction in prices of non‐urea fertilizers and diesel would help farmers reduce production cost by BDT 1‐2.5 a kg. The subsidy for non‐urea fertilizers has been increased to 55% from 15% previously. This means total subsidy to bail out the existing stock of non‐urea fertilizers might stand at over BDT 27bn (USD 394mn) in fiscal year 2009. During the beginning of the current fiscal year the caretaker government allocated about BDT 43bn (USD 628mn) in subsidy for fertilizer, electricity and others, up from BDT 40bn (USD 584mn) in FY 07. Despite a gradual drop in non‐urea fertilizer prices on the global market since last August, the prices remained high on the local market, which discouraged farmers to use the inputs. This resulted in a huge amount of unsold non‐urea fertilizers at the dealers' level.
The demand for urea during January‐March, the peak season for Boro cultivation, has been forecast at over 1.2mn tonnes and the total demand for urea in the current fiscal year is projected at 2.85mn tonnes. The demand for non‐urea fertilizers for the January‐March period has been projected at about 0.3mn tonnes against a yearly projected demand of about 1.1mn tonnes for the current fiscal year. Presently about 4,900 dealers distribute fertilizers across the country. http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=71394
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18 January 2009
Aviation Best Air grounded for tax dodging The New Nation, Thursday January 15, 2009 The National Board of Revenue has sent a letter to the Civil Aviation Authority of Bangladesh requesting to cancel all Best Air flights as the private airlines failed to pay travel taxes. In its letter, sent to the CAAB on January 13, the NBR stated that Best Air had not paid travel taxes of around BDT 20mn for a long time. Best Air now operates flights to Singapore and Malaysia. Their Dubai, Bangkok, Colombo and Male routes are suspended. Best Air started operations in 1999 as a Helicopter operator and started its journey as a Freighter Airline in the beginning of 2000. Best Air obtained its License in 2006 from CAAB to operate passenger service in the international and domestic sectors and started flights with a Boeing 737 aircraft. The NBR also has due travel tax from Biman Bangladesh Airlines Limited and GMG Airlines. Biman in November paid BDT 150mn (USD 2.18mn) as travel tax while GMG paid BDT 5.5mn (USD 0.1mn). These two airlines also have unpaid travel taxes. The revenue board received BDT 2110mn (USD 30.65mn) in travel taxes from different airlines that operate flights in Bangladesh during the first six months of this fiscal year, compared to BDT 2295mn (USD 33.33mn) during the same period in FY 08. http://nation.ittefaq.com/issues/2009/01/15/news0702.htm
Banking Trade tops bank loan The Daily Star, Sunday January 18th, 2009 Central bank data shows that a majority of bank credit has been allocated for trade financing. In September 08 about 35.4 % of total bank credit was kept for trade financing, up significantly from 18.7 % in March. Up to September, bank advances for industrial purposes reached 21.1 % from 27.2 % six months ago. BB data show domestic credit increased by BDT 174.13bn (USD 2.53bn) or 7.0% during July‐October 2008 from BDT 100.08bn (USD 1.45bn) during the same period a year earlier. On the other
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hand, private sector credit grew by BDT 103.71bn (USD 1.51bn) or 5.45 % during July‐October 2008 compared to a 5.65 % rise in the same period a year earlier. Only 21.1 % of total bank advances were for industry, 35.4 % for trade, 2.3 % for transport and communication, 16.0 % for working capital, 6.8 % for agriculture and 18.4 % for other purposes. As per BB data on bank advances up to March 2008, 27.2 % was industrial, 24.7 % working capital and 18.7 % for trade on year‐on‐ year basis. http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news‐details.php?nid=71794
Rupali Bank seeks BDT 20bn for its recapitalisation The Financial Express, Sunday January 18th, 2009 Rupali Bank Limited, a largely state‐owned entity, has asked for about BDT 20bn from the government to improve its capital base. According to the MD of Rupali bank, the proposal for the much‐ needed fund for recapitalization has been sought in order to implement the bank’s five‐year plan. The plan that has already been submitted to the Bangladesh Bank (BB) was prepared as per a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the bank and the central bank last year. The BB has been assigned to look after the ongoing restructuring programme of state‐owned commercial banks (SCBs). The classified loan of the bank in which the government held more than 93 % stakes was about BDT 18.29bn (USD 0.27bn) until 2007. The classified loan representing 39% of the bank's total loan increased by 51% in 2007 as it was BDT 12.12bn (USD 0.18bn) in 2006, according to a BB report. The proposed recapitalization fund might be offered through a number of ways such as writing‐off the classified loans the bank has with the state‐owned enterprises by providing cash and issuance of bonds. The central bank is expected to consult with the finance ministry on Rupali's five‐year plan, which also includes other issues like recruitment of fresh manpower and time‐bound targets on loan disbursement and recovery. http://www.thefinancialexpress‐bd.info/2009/01/18/56294.html
BB hikes cash reserve ratio for banks The Daily Star, Wednesday January 14th, 2009 Bangladesh Bank yesterday increased the rate for daily cash reserve requirement (CRR) against deposits by 50 basis points to help banks manage liquidity better. In line with past rules, all banks had maintained a monthly CRR of 5 % on average. On a daily basis, the rate had been no less than 4% ‐‐ a ratio which was hiked to a minimum requirement of 4.5 % by the central bank yesterday. But the BB official would not see the latest move as a tight monetary policy.
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18 January 2009 The required reserve ratio is a bank regulation that sets the minimum reserves each bank must hold to customer deposits. The reserves are designed to satisfy withdrawal demands and would normally be in the form of fiat currency, or with a central bank. The reserve ratio is sometimes used as a tool in monetary policy, influencing the economy, borrowing and interest rates. http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news‐details.php?nid=71221
BB intensifies monitoring of bank lendings The Financial Express, Tuesday January 13th, 2009 The central bank has intensified its monitoring and supervision to help commercial banks avoid risks by making only quality lending. Under the move, the central bank is strictly monitoring the credit deposit ratio (CDR) of the banks, credit flow, particularly in nonproductive sectors, and implementation of credit risk grading manual (CRGM). The BB has asked about four commercial banks for taking initiatives to bring down their CDR to a rational level, as these banks have CDR of over 100 % instead of the standard 82 %. The central bank is also strictly monitoring the implementation of the CRGM for all exposures, other than those covered under consumer and small enterprises, agricultural and micro‐credit. Loans will be divided into eight categories ‐‐ superior, good, acceptable, marginal, special mention, sub‐standard, doubtful and bad. At the pre‐sanction stage, such credit grading helps the sanctioning authority to decide on lending, loan price, extent of exposure, appropriate credit facility, and various risk mitigation tools to put a cap on the risk level. At the post‐sanction stage, the bank can decide about the depth of the review or renewal, frequency of review, periodicity of the grading, and other precautionary measures. http://www.thefinancialexpress‐bd.info/2009/01/12/55656.html
BB spots suspicious transactions The Daily Star, Monday January 12th, 2009 Bangladesh Bank (BB) received 466 suspicious transaction reports (STR) in fiscal year 2008, an increase of 412% from 91 cases reported during the previous fiscal year. 102 STRs were filed with the BB in FY 06. About 25 commercial banks, mostly private, have
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been penalized for suspicious transactions as they violated the Money Laundering Prevention Act 2002. Seventeen banks were punished in FY 07, and 14 were punished in FY 06. The BB has fined most of the banks charged with suspicious transactions. Considering the gravity of the case, the central bank can also ask banks to suspend their officials responsible for the transactions. The central bank can also file cases against a bank. The BB is empowered to deal with the issue under the Money Laundering Prevention Act 2002 and Money Laundering Prevention Ordinance 2008. http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news‐details.php?nid=70933
Infrastructure & Energy
Govt seeks WB fund for gas exploration The Financial Express, Sunday January 18 2009 The government has sought funds from the World Bank (WB) to explore natural gas in the country's two prospective blocks aiming to increase supply sources. The state‐owned petroleum exploration and production company ‐‐BAPEX, could not start geological and geophysical surveys at those prospective blocks in the greater Mymensingh area due to fund shortages. As there is a gas shortage in Bangladesh, the government has decided to tap various sources of funds to discover new oil and gas reserves in different blocks in the country. BAPEX has planned to conduct a 2400km two‐dimensional (2D) seismic survey, geophysical and geological studies and delineation of drillable subsurface structure to identify potential reserves in the gas blocks. BAPEX has so far discovered gas at Semutang, Begumganj, Feni, Kamta, Beanibazar, Fenchuganj, Shahbazpur and Saldanadi fields. http://www.thefinancialexpress‐ bd.com/search_index.php?page=detail_news&news_id=56307
BERC to decide on power tariff hike in May The Daily Star, Friday January 16, 2009 The Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC) has accepted proposals for electricity‐price readjustments at the retail level but will announce its decision within May this year as to whether or not it will allow the power‐distribution companies to raise tariffs. Before the announcement, the BERC will hold a public hearing on the issue in February to gather opinions from retail customers and other stakeholders. From early this month, four power‐distribution companies‐DPDC, Desco, Westzone and REB‐have appealed to the BERC to raise their tariff rates by 11% to 15% for retail customers. Earlier on September 29, the BERC allowed Power Development Board (PDB), which is responsible for power generation, to raise the power price at the bulk‐customer level by 16%. http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=71524
Govt lifts duty on solar energy tools The Daily Star, Friday January 16, 2009
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18 January 2009 The government has decided to withdraw all duties from solar energy equipments to encourage use of solar energy, especially in remote and economically backward locations. With over 0.3mn households already using solar energy equivalent to 15MW, mainly in the coastal southwestern region, this withdrawal would reduce around BDT 1,500 per solar panel worth BDT 10,000. Currently, there is a 15% VAT on renewable energy equipments. This decision was made in line with the Renewable Energy Policy of Bangladesh, approved by the caretaker government on December 18 and made effective through a gazette notification. The policy follows the Vision and Policy Statement, 2000 that aims at providing power to all by 2020 in phases. The policy targets developing renewable energy resources to meet 5% of the total power demand by 2015 and 10% by 2020. It also says renewable energy project investors in public and private sectors will be exempted from corporate income tax for five years from the date of notification of the policy and it will be extended periodically following impact assessment of tax exemption on renewable energy. An institution ‐‐ Sustainable Energy Development Agency (SEDA) ‐‐ will be established under the Companies Act, 1994 as a focal point for sustainable energy development and promotion. The SEDA will coordinate sustainable energy planning, supporting new technologies and business models and establishment of small and medium renewable energy enterprises and providers. Under this policy, electricity generated from renewable energy projects, both in public and private sectors, may be purchased by power utilities or any consumers through a mutual agreement. http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=71531
Study finds BDT 500mn (USD 7.26mn) leakage in fuel subsidy last year The Financial Express, Friday January 16, 2009 In a workshop organized by the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) on diesel subsidy to the poor farmers, chaired by BIDS director general Dr. Quazi Shahabuddin, BIDS research director Dr. MA Asaduzzaman and World Bank's Delegator Ninno Carlo presented findings from a study on diesel subsidy. The report stated that around BDT 500mn, which was meant for subsidizing diesel for farmers, was misplaced last year. The last caretaker government disbursed a total of BDT 2.50bn (USD 36.31mn) as cash subsidy for diesel to the farmers. The study revealed that nearly 21% of the fund had not reached the farmers who were eligible to get the money. Some 26‐27% eligible farmers were not listed, 13% ineligible persons received subsidy and 18% eligible listed farmers did not get the payment, it added. http://www.thefinancialexpress‐ bd.com/search_index.php?page=detail_news&news_id=56087
WB to provide USD 100mn for renewable energy development The Financial Express, Thursday January 15, 2009 The World Bank (WB) has decided to provide USD 100mn by June this year to promote use of renewable energy, particularly solar
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power. A mission from the World Bank visited Bangladesh last week to explore the possibility of renewable energy development. Bangladesh's primary source of energy ‐ natural gas ‐ is depleting fast and the present recoverable gas reserve will meet demand only till 2012. Bangladesh now has over 250 million cubic feet of gas supply shortage per day (mmcfd) against the demand for over 2000mmcfd. The government has already formulated a "renewable energy policy" to encourage both the private and the public sectors to come forward for developing alternative sources of energy. http://www.thefinancialexpress‐ bd.com/search_index.php?page=detail_news&news_id=56001
GTCL in a quandary over awarding contracts The Financial Express, Wednesday January 14, 2008 The government may have to bear additional costs of over BDT 1.40bn (USD 20.33mn) if it decides to award work orders to the lowest bidders for supplying pipes under gas transmission line projects. The additional costs would be on account of the large gap in prices quoted in the bids and the existing market prices of transmission pipes in the international market. The state‐owned Gas Transmission Company Ltd (GTCL) has almost finalised the process of awarding all the three contracts for purchasing American Petroleum Institute (API) standard line pipes at prices which were very high when bids were submitted. The current international price of the project specific pipe is around USD 400 per metre, whereas the lowest quoted price for the same pipe under one bid was USD 540 a metre. The three gas transmission lines to be installed under the bids include ‐ Monohordi to Jamuna Bridge (east side), Jamuna Bridge (east side) to Bheramara and Bheramara to Khulna. The GTCL floated international tenders to purchase API standard line pipes in July, 2008 for these three projects when the prices of iron pipes were very high. In the bids accepted by the GTCL, there is a provision for making adjustments to fluctuations in prices in the international market. The company had earlier floated similar tenders in the early part of 2008, when prices were low, and subsequently received bids from a number of international bidders. But as international prices of pipes went up later, all the bidders refused to extend the validity of their offers, which forced the GTCL to scrap all the tenders. http://www.thefinancialexpress‐ bd.com/search_index.php?page=detail_news&news_id=55823
Diesel, kerosene prices lowered by BDT 2.0 (US 2.9 Cents) a litre The Financial Express, Tuesday January 13, 2009 The new government has reduced diesel and kerosene prices by BDT 2.0 (US 2.9 Cents) per litre, with effect from 13th January this year. Fuel oils are now selling at BDT 44 (USD 0.64) per litre following the reduction, down from the previous rate of BDT 46 (USD 0.67). This was a third cutback on fuel tariffs within three months in the wake of sharp declines in oil prices in the international market.
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18 January 2009 The past caretaker government had reduced the price by 4.3% in December 22, 2008. http://www.thefinancialexpress‐ bd.com/search_index.php?page=detail_news&news_id=55738
PDB claims USD 9mn from 3 rental power firms The Daily Star, Tuesday January 13, 2009 Power Development Board (PDB) has claimed nearly USD 9mn in liquidated damages from three rental power companies that failed to meet the project deadline or achieve the guaranteed power generation target. A top power ministry official said that PDB has already realised around USD 1mn from Energyprima of Hosaf Group, British company Aggreko and local GBB. Energyprima is facing a penalty of USD 7.33mn for delaying two 50MW three‐year rental projects. Aggreko is facing a penalty of USD 0.38mn for delaying its 40MW three‐year rental plant in Khulna and GBB is facing a penalty of BDT 43.5mn (USD 0.63mn) for delaying its 20MW Bogra 15‐year rental project.
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Landowners in the area said they received offers from land developers and businessmen to build high‐rise structures for commercial purposes. Mohammad Nizamuddin, who owns three kathas of land and a tin‐roofed building adjacent to the road in Tejkunipara, said the price of a katha of land in the area shot up to BDT 4mn (USD 58,000) from about BDT 1mn(USD 14,500) to BDT 1.5mn(USD 21,700) prior to the construction of the road. But the people, whose lands were acquired by the government for the road, received BDT 0.8mn (USD 11,600) for a katha in addition to 50% compensation on the total cost of the land. http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news‐ details.php?nid=71065
Telecoms Mobile subscription grows 30% in 2008 The Daily Star, Wednesday January 14, 2009
http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=71132
Dhaka‐Delhi talks on maritime boundary delimitation by March The Financial Express, Monday January 12, 2008 Bangladesh and India will hold bilateral talks over the maritime boundary delimitation and the dispute over the offshore oil and gas blocks in the Bay of Bengal by March. The foreign secretary initiated bilateral discussions with the two neighbouring countries after the strife with India over establishing oil and gas exploration rights in the Bay of Bengal. Three Indian vessels, one survey ship aided by two other support vessels, had entered into Bangladesh's deep‐sea block 14 on December 25, 2008, and left after the foreign ministry protested. Bangladesh had a similar dispute with Myanmar on November 2008, which was also mitigated through diplomatic efforts. Though sea boundary demarcation is the key to offshore oil and gas explorations, Bangladesh is yet to resolve the disputes with its maritime neighbours ‐ India and Myanmar. According to the UK‐ based prestigious global firm, Wood Mackenzie, neighbouring countries have wholly or partly licensed a total of 12 gas blocks out of 28 offshore Bangladesh blocks. http://www.thefinancialexpress‐ bd.com/search_index.php?page=detail_news&news_id=55667
Real Estate Bijoy Sarani‐Tejgaon link road drives land prices The Daily Star, Tuesday January 13, 2009 The newly constructed 60‐foot wide road stretching from Bijoy Sarani to Tejgaon has increased the prices of land adjacent to the area. The acceleration in prices began with landowners and businessmen eyeing the property and hoping to develop the area further. The 2400‐foot long link road connects the Old Airport Road at Bijoy Sarani with Tajuddin Ahmed Sarani at the Nabisco intersection in Tejgaon. The new road was part of the interim government’s efforts to ease gridlock in the capital.
The country's six mobile phone operators added 10.27 million customers in 2008, posting a 30% growth compared to a 62% growth recorded in 2007. According to operators, the slower growth in subscribers was due to the economic slowdown and increased connection fees. Bangladesh's total mobile subscribers reached 44.64 million by the end of December 2008, compared to 34.37 million at the end of 2007, according to Bangladesh Telecommunication and Regulatory Commission (BTRC) statistics. The subscriber acquisition growth was 103% and 62% in 2006 and 2007, respectively. According to statistics, Grameenphone still holds the first position, with 4.51 million customers in 2008. The company's total subscribers were 20.99 million as of December 2008, up from 16.48 million in December 2007. Banglalink added 3.25 million customers and AKTEL added 1.8 million in 2008. Banglalink has become the second market leader with 10.33 million customers, followed by AKTEL's 8.20 million by December 2008. Due to higher taxes on SIMs, operators were also reluctant to offer friendly packages targeting rural customers. Operator's marketing strategy in 2008 was mainly concentrated on activating unused old connection rather than offering new packages. The top operators hiked pre‐paid SIM card prices by nearly three folds to BDT 400 (USD 5.8) and post‐paid SIM card prices to BDT 1,000 from September 2008. http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news‐details.php?nid=71218
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18 January 2009
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Textiles Waste treatment plants to be set up in EPZs The Daily Star, Thursday, January 15, 2009 The government has decided to establish central waste treatment plants (ETPs) in all the export promotion zones (EPZs) to reduce environment pollution. Under the agreement, the Chittagong Waste Treatment Plants Ltd (CWTPL) will establish an ETP in the Chittagong EPZ (CEPZ), which will treat the waste output of 144 factories there. The ETP can be set up at a cost of USD 6.01mn in 18 months. The CEPZ will be the second EPZ to have an ETP. Presently, only the Dhaka EPZ has a central ETP.
http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=71356
Yarn makers demand stimulus package The Daily Star, Tuesday, January 13, 2009 Yarn makers requested a stimulus package from the government to protect the sub‐sector from adverse affects of the global financial recession. Producers complained that they had suspended 30% of production in their spinning mills due to a drop in sales in the local market and cheap imported yarn. Yarn manufacturers pressed for increasing cash incentives to 10% from the existing 5% and introducing a 5% research and development fund to maintain a vibrant textile sector. According to the former president of the BTMA, Indian yarn producers are in an advantageous position, compared to Bangladeshi producers as India has announced a stimulus package for the sector and is providing R&D funds to manufacturers. Moreover, India produces raw cotton and manufactures capital machinery. According to Bangladesh Bank data, L/Cs (letters of credit) worth USD 205.39mn were settled during July‐October 2008 compared to USD 142.70mn during the same period a year ago to import cotton yarn. In July‐October of 2008, fresh L/Cs worth USD 150.04mn were opened to import cotton yarn compared to USD 141.77mn during the same period in 2007. According to BTMA statistics, 43 new spinning mills were set up in 2008 (January‐ December) with 9,44,744 spindles, up from 28 mills installed with 4,42,848 spindles in 2007. The country has a total of 341 spinning mills with an annual production capacity of 1,600mn kg of yarn and the total investment in the sector is EUR 4bn, according to BTMA statistics. http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=71066
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18 January 2009
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