11 January 2009
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Weekly News Update
AT Capital Weekly Update
Asian Tiger Capital Partners
Key themes in this issue are: Global Overview: • The fallout from the USD 1bn+ fraud at Satyam, India’s Enron, continues to reverberate around not only within the stockmarket but corporate India more broadly. Our sense is that the impact on confidence will be more prolonged as foreign investors continue to question the reliability of accounts.
•
Another possible impact could be on the trend of outsourcing to India, since India's IT firms handle sensitive financial information for some of the world's largest enterprises.
•
For months, Wal‐Mart shone like a beacon in the storm lashing retailers, offering hope to the industry and investors alike that there must be at least one business model that could withstand the recession: international discounters. Last Thursday, we learned otherwise. Mighty Wal‐Mart's sales fell at the height of the traditional holiday spending spree.
•
US Nonfarm payroll employment declined sharply in December, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.8 to 7.2 %. Payroll employment fell by 524,000 over the month. The total number of unemployed lost in 2008 was the highest since 1945, right after the end of World War 2.
•
China's exports and imports both fell for the second consecutive month in December, with an accelerated contraction in trade offering a bleak outlook for the world's third‐largest economy.
Bangladesh Overview: • With an overwhelming mandate from the people, new AL PM Sheikh Hasina has surprised the nation with a bold series of selections for her Cabinet that was certainly in keeping with her electoral platform, namely one of change. We outline some of her key Cabinet Appointments.
•
The Awami League‐led grand alliance government is starting off on a favorable base as food prices and overall inflation in the country have started to come down since November 2008 due to dramatic declines in global commodity prices in the backdrop of the global economic crisis.
•
The new government is already being proactive in attaining its goal of reducing prices of essentials. During a meeting held last week, the council of Ministers decided to cut diesel prices and raise the level of subsidy for fertilizers with the objective of boosting Boro crop production.
•
We discuss some short‐term and longer‐term policy measures the new AL Government should follow in order to bring Food prices down in a sustained manner. In particular we focus on increasing Agri‐sector R & D as well as increasing distributional efficiencies.
EDITORS Ifty Islam Managing Partner ifty.islam@at‐capital.com Syeed Khan Partner syeed.khan@at‐capital.com Jisha Sarwar Senior Research Associate jisha.sarwar@at‐capital.com Asian Tiger Capital Partners UTC Building, Level 16 8 Panthapath, Dhaka‐1215 Bangladesh Tel: 8155144, 8110345 Fax: 9118582 www.at‐capital.com
Satyam crisis risks rapid reversal of Indian FDI miracle
11 January 2009
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Contents
Page
Global Markets Overview
3
Satyam scandal set to be a drag on Indian markets/EM investment sentiment US December unemployment rate jumps to 7.2%; Walmart sales disappoint Chinese and global trade slowdown worsening
3 3 4
Bangladesh Overview
6
AL’s pledge to reduce prices of essentials
6
Increasing inflation in the developing world, caused by increasing food prices
7
Impact of high food prices
7
Ensuring Sustainability of Price Reductions
8
Short‐term measures Long‐term measures Sub‐sectors of agriculture where research could be useful Appendix 1
9 9 9 10
Appendix 2
11
Stock Market Weekly
12
Stock Market News
13
Economics Economics News Sector News
15 16 18
Agriculture/ Aviation
18
Banking/ Infrastructure & energy
19
Pharmaceuticals/Real Estate/ Telecoms
20
Textiles/ Tourism
21
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11 January 2009
Global Markets Overview Satyam scandal set to be a drag on Indian markets/EM investment sentiment When terrorists attacked Mumbai last November, the media called it "India's 9/11." That tragedy has been succeeded by another that has been dubbed "India's Enron."The fallout from the USD 1bn+ fraud at Satyam continues to reverberate around not only within the stockmarket but corporate India more broadly. Our sense is that the impact on confidence will be more prolonged as foreign investors continue to question the reliability of accounts in EM countries more broadly, especially those that through impressive self‐promotion have benefited from a significant influx of capital. The near 50% decline in the Sensex in 2008 reflected primarily the withdrawal of international capital rather than the speed of economic slowdown. But this is likely to get worse in 2009. Satyam’s CEO now admits that some reported assets at the company simply did not exist, including considerable amounts of cash. Cash was reported to exceed USD 1bn but apparently stands at just USD 78mn! Ordinarily, the audit work required to verify the existence of cash is among the easiest of all auditing exercises. One wonders how auditors could have failed to identify such false assertions. It is likewise the case that the integrity of systems of internal controls governing cash are among the easiest to establish, maintain and audit. Satyam’s auditors gave opinions attesting to the veracity not only of management’s assertions about cash balances but also about the effectiveness of the company’s internal controls. So one also wonders how auditors could have given a clean bill of health to a system of internal control that enabled reporting large amounts of fictitious cash. From a systemic regulatory standpoint, what is particularly troubling is that Satyam, whose shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange (in the form of American Depository Receipts, or ADRs). In addition that billion‐dollar fraud that went undetected by the firm’s outside auditors, an India affiliate of PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC). The Satyam fraud presents serious questions about systemic regulatory efficacy, particularly concerning auditing and audit firm oversight. Pending additional information from the newly‐ revealed fraud, of course, a couple of preliminary issues may prove to be lessons of the Satyam fraud. First, if foreign companies list securities in the United States, their financial statements need to be audited by a firm whose activities are subject to regulatory oversight in the United States. As one leading US regulatory lawyer, Lawrence Cunningham, of concurringoipinions.com has noted “ The problem may grow more serious, however, as the four largest US auditing firms appears increasingly interested in outsourcing much of their auditing work to foreign affiliates, including to firms in India. Investors should be
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Ifty Islam, Managing Partner ifty.islam@at‐capital.com concerned about these developments, especially if the SEC were to continue to pursue its program of mutual recognition and if the US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board( PCAOB) mirrored that policy by relying upon foreign auditing oversight authorities to conduct inspections of auditing firms based abroad.” This will undoubtedly have implications for the Indian Outsourcing Industry to generate the same degree of trust from its overseas corporate clients. As Knowledge at Wharton notes, the Satyam debacle will have an enormous impact on India's business scene over the coming months. The possible disappearance of a top IT services and outsourcing giant will reshape India's IT landscape. Satyam could possibly be sold ‐‐ in fact, it had engaged Merrill Lynch to explore "strategic options," but the investment bank has withdrawn following the disclosure about the fraud. It is widely believed that rivals such as HCL, Wipro and TCS could cherry pick the best clients and employees, effectively hollowing out Satyam. Another possible impact could be on the trend of outsourcing to India, since India's IT firms handle sensitive financial information for some of the world's largest enterprises. The most significant questions, however, will be asked about corporate governance in India, and whether other companies could follow Satyam's Raju in revealing skeletons in their own closets. US December unemployment rate jumps to 7.2%; Walmart sales disappoint Stockmarkets ended the week under the twin negative influence of the Satyam scandal we highlighted above along with weak December US labour market data. Nonfarm payroll employment declined sharply in December, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.8 to 7.2 %. Payroll employment fell by 524,000 over the month and by 1.9 million over the last 4 months of 2008. In December, job losses were large and widespread across most major industry sectors and the total number of unemployed lost in 2008 was the highest since 1945, right after the end of World War 2.
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11 January 2009 Also of concern was the disappointing earnings results from the crucial holiday season from Walmart. For months, Wal‐Mart shone like a beacon in the storm lashing retailers, offering hope to the industry and investors alike that there must be at least one business model that could withstand the recession: international discounters. Last Thursday, we learned otherwise. Mighty Wal‐ Mart's sales fell at the height of the traditional holiday spending spree. For the five weeks ended Jan. 2, the world's biggest retailer reported net sales 0.1% less than a year ago, forcing it to cut its fourth‐quarter earnings outlook. Investors who clung to Wal‐Mart as the world plunged into recession had seen enough. After famously surviving 2008 as one of only two stocks in the Dow 30 to post a gain (the other was hamburger giant McDonald's). That tells us a few things about the holiday season and what it means for 2009. It tells us that all the tales of Wal‐Mart parking lots clogged with BMWs forgot to mention that cars with rusted out fenders were nowhere to be seen. While throngs of middle class Americans discovered the virtues of living within their means, much of Wal‐Mart's traditional clientele was at home rigging up space heaters. Or rigging up space heaters at the in‐laws, where they now live. That's what happens when unemployment and foreclosures approach levels not seen in decades. The downturn is not only felt at home. Wal‐Mart's discount empire spans the globe now. So those slumping December sales, down 10% at the retailer's overseas stores, give us a glimpse of the weakened power of the consumer far beyond our own borders.
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As Marketwatch.com noted: “Wal‐Mart didn't save the holiday season and it certainly can't save the global economy. While consumer spending drives growth, it can also drive dangerous trade imbalances and unacceptable credit risk. So when the world's biggest retailer warns things are looking rough, it merely offers fresh evidence of the depth and breadth of a recession unlikely to ease its grip any time soon. It also reminds us that we're all in this together ‐‐ China, Bentonville, Ark., and Wall Street ‐‐ and that climbing out of this hole requires an international effort, whether we like it or not.” Chinese and global trade slowdown worsening The WSJ reported that China's exports and imports both fell for the second consecutive month in December, with an accelerated contraction in trade offering a bleak outlook for the world's third‐largest economy. The weak trade data, especially that of imports, showed China isn't just suffering from a global economic slowdown but also from a deterioration in local demand, further throwing into doubt expectations that increasing domestic Chinese spending can compensate for the slowdown in the US, Europe and Japan. China's exports in December fell 2.8% from a year earlier to $111.16 billion, while imports in the month fell 21.3% to $72.18 billion; China's trade surplus in December totaled $38.98 billion, the person said. That was down from a record $40.09 billion in November. While the falling value of imports in December partly reflects declining international commodity prices, it also indicates a sharp deceleration of economic growth in the fourth quarter and poor growth momentum in the first quarter. Another WSJ report underlines the extent of the Chinese slowdown. In Sichuan and other interior provinces, municipal officials are desperately searching for ways to provide jobs for millions of out‐of‐work migrant laborers whose families no longer need them for farming. American retailers, after suffering a dismal holiday shopping season, are delaying payment for Chinese goods 90 or even 120 days after shipping, in contrast to the usual 30 to 45 days, forcing their suppliers to try to borrow more money to cover the difference. Some Chinese suppliers who cannot raise the money — many already operate on thin margins — are going out of business. At the same time, retailers are demanding that exporters show that they have strong balance sheets and will not go bankrupt before completing orders. Exporters, worried the retailers will fail before paying for their purchases, are reluctant to let goods be loaded on ships. And banks, for the same reason, have cut back on guaranteeing retailers’ payments to exporters.
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11 January 2009
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Victor K. Fung, the chairman of the Li & Fung Group, the giant supply chain management company that connects factories in China with retailers in the United States and Europe, estimates that 10,000 of the 60,000 factories in China owned by Hong Kong interests have closed or will close in the coming months. Other business leaders say the toll may be even higher and that factory closings are an even bigger problem among mainland Chinese businesses because these tend to be smaller and more poorly capitalized than those owned by Hong Kong businesses. Evidence from Taiwanese and Korea trade data underlines the speed of the Chinese slowdown. Taiwan’s December exports are down over 40% y/y — largely because of a huge fall in exports of electronic components to China. The fall topped expectations. It adds to the mounting evidence that the current global deceleration is quite sharp and quite deep. Taiwan’s imports are also down by around 45%. Thank the big fall in commodity prices. Taiwan managed to post a trade surplus in December even with the enormous fall in its exports. Korea’s exports were also down in December — though the 17.4% y/y fall in December wasn’t quite as large at the 19% fall in November. Imports though fell by more — over 21%. And Korea also posted a (small) trade surplus.
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11 January 2009
Bangladesh Overview
AL announces surprise Cabinet “She promised to surprise us with her choice of the cabinet, and she did. Though the media was able to get some predictions right but generally speaking she outwitted us all. Not only in choosing the individuals but equally in giving them portfolios, Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina showed a boldness and a spirit of moving away from the trodden path that is rare in our politics. However, in her 'thinking out of the box' she has also taken some very serious risks that can make or break her government's prospect for success.” (Mahfuz Anam, Editor, Daily Star, Jan 10, 2009) With an overwhelming mandate from the people, new AL PM Sheikh Hasina has surprised the nation with a bold series of selections for her Cabinet that was certainly in keeping with her electoral platform, namely one of change. The selection of Mr MA Muhit as Finance Minister, will give some re‐assurance to financial investors that one of the key ministries of government is in the hands of one of Bangladesh’s policy veterans. Although it has been almost 20 years since Mr Muhit was last at the helm of the finance ministry, having someone with stature and tenure within the Awami League was important given the likely pivotal role of the Finance Ministry. Planning Minister Retd Vice Marshall AK Khandaker is also well respected within the party and new Commerce Minister Retd. Col Faruq Khan also has extensive ties within the business community and also likely valuable perspectives on the energy sector. (we list the full list o ministers in the new cabinet in the appendix) But expectations for the new government will also be high given the scale of the mandate and they need to deliver in two key areas very quickly. Firstly in energy given the AL manifesto commitment to deliver 5000MW by 2011 and 7000MW by 2013, they need to take decisions fast. The fact that Sheikh Hasina retains the energy portfolio personally underlines its importance. But there will be a great deal of focus on which key advisors she appointments to help her to take decisive action on coal policy, gas exploration and rental power plants. We discussed some of the energy issues in last week’s ATC weekly as well as in the Daily Star Column Jan 8 that can be found in the link below http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news‐details.php?nid=70432
We also plan to publish a 60 page report on the energy sector later this month. In the balance of this article, we discuss the other key manifesto commitment of the AL, namely reducing the price of essential goods.
AL’s pledge to reduce prices of essentials One of the major electoral promises made by the ruling Awami League party was to bring down essential commodity prices to a tolerable level. The first point on the priority list of AL’s manifesto states:
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“Measures will be taken to reduce the unbearable burden of price hike and keep it in tune with the purchasing power of the people. After giving the highest priority to the production of domestic commodities, arrangements will be made for timely import to ensure food security. A multi‐prong drive will be made to control prices along with monitoring the market. Hoarding and profiteering syndicates will be eliminated. Extortion will be stopped. An institution for commodity price control and consumer protection will be set up. Above all, price reduction and stability will be achieved by bringing equilibrium between demand and supply of commodities.” Indeed, inflation has been a major concern in the country throughout 2007 and 2008. Inflation, driven mainly by high prices of food items, impedes economic growth and overall poverty reduction measures in the country. A recent survey conducted by IFC BICF (Bangladesh Investment Climate Fund) on concerns on the economy and consents for business reforms, shows that high prices is a leading concern for both opinion leaders (83%) and the general population (84%), followed by jobs and unemployment, corruption, electricity, etc. During the same survey, when asked about the two most important areas that need reform, 56% of the general population and 31% of opinion leaders included agriculture as one of the most important areas that need reform (Figure 1). Figure 1: Most Important Reforms (Survey conducted in Sept. 08) Source: IFC BICF In fact, keeping prices of essentials down was also emphasized as a priority during the care taker government’s regime. In the proposed budget for the fiscal year 2008‐09, the Finance Adviser identified “maintaining price level of essentials within a tolerable limit” as one of the eight priorities. A number of measures, both market‐based and non‐market‐based, were proposed to keep prices of essential commodities at a tolerable limit. These measures ranged from fiscal measures (e.g. continuation of zero or reduced import tariff on certain commodities) to direct market interventions (e.g. continuing open market sales (OMS) outlets of daily essentials). To mitigate the negative impact of high price on the food security of the poor segment of the society, the budget proposed to broaden allocation and coverage of the ‘safety net’ program. Furthermore, an allocation in terms of food worth BDT 1,5780mn was proposed under the Food for Work Program, which is expected to generate other 144mn man‐days of employment.
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11 January 2009 The budget also proposed measures to stimulate agricultural production. These are related to subsidy for agriculture and reduction in duties on import of agricultural inputs and machineries.
Increasing inflation in the developing world, caused by increasing food prices In recent years inflation has not only been rising in Bangladesh, but also in the rest of the developing world, mainly due to rising food prices in the international market. Needless to say, rising food prices has been intensifying food insecurity in the developing countries. There was a 181% increase in global wheat prices over the 36 months leading up to February 2008, and an 83% increase in overall global food prices over the same period (World Bank 2008). Moreover, the price of rice in the international market rose by 165% between April 2007 and April 2008 (ADB 2008). The primary reasons for rising food prices in the international market include factors such as higher food demand in emerging economies such as China and India that have led to reductions in food exports from these countries; rising oil prices and, more importantly, increased demand for bio‐fuel raw materials such as wheat, soybean, maize, and palm oil which reduced the area of cropland for using food production for human consumption. Figure 2 Source: FAO In recent years, Bangladesh has experienced persistent price increases, especially of food items, corresponding with increasing food prices globally. A significant increase in the price of rice was seen in the domestic market from November 2006 to March 2007. However, since January 2008, the rise in prices has been steeper. From April 2007 to April 2008, the price of rice increased by 61 %, while the price of wheat increased by 56 % (ADB 2008). This was mainly due to the two floods and cyclone Sidr which caused a short term supply shock. In addition, adverse price developments in the international market, low prices of food commodities at the production stage leading to reduced production incentives, rising global prices of oil since 2005 causing problems in transportation of food grains, movements in the exchange rate, political and market uncertainty, strong domestic demand (resulting from economic growth and flow of remittances) and other economic
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and non‐economic factors contributed to the recent price increase in Bangladesh (Dawe 2008 and UNESCAP 2008). As a result, overall inflation in Bangladesh rose dramatically in recent years. The Bangladesh economy experienced a moderate rate of inflation, 5.2 % on average in the first half of 1990s, mainly contributed by higher prices in non‐food items. However, in the second half of the 1990s, average inflation increased to 5.6 % driven by higher food prices, though food inflation started to decline after FY98, the year of the devastating flood, along with similar movement of overall inflation. Since then, Bangladesh experienced a low rate of inflation, at an average rate of less than 2.5 % during FY01‐FY02; when a relatively low price of food at that time played the key role in overall price developments. However, in the following two years, the inflation rate jumped to 5.1 %, followed by an average of 7.0 % during FY05‐FY07. In July 2008, overall inflation in Bangladesh rose to 10.82 % (point‐to‐point‐ basis) with a dominant role of food inflation (13.92 %). One general characteristic of the recent inflation is that food inflation is higher than non‐food inflation, and the gap has been increasing for a while. Though the role of food inflation in overall inflation was insignificant during FY01‐FY03, food inflation started to soar since FY04 which, in turn, led to rising overall inflation. However, it is important to note that inflation is heavily weighted by food; although energy prices are volatile, it does not really have a significant impact on overall inflation as the local energy (diesel and petroleum) prices are not set by the market, but rather fixed by the government through a pricing mechanism. Figure 3: Trends in inflation rate in Bangladesh Inflation Rate (Point to Point) (1995-96=100) 2008 Oct Nov CPI ClassificationFY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 Sep 6.48 7.17 7.22 9.93 10.19 7.26 6.12 General 7.91 7.76 8.12 12.28 12.07 8.08 6.68 Food 4.33 6.40 5.90 6.32 7.19 5.95 5.25 Non-Food Source: BBS A Bangladesh Bank report on inflation in Bangladesh states, “Data analysis reveals that inflation in Bangladesh is dominated by food inflation and, in particular, prices of rice, wheat, and edible oil significantly affect overall food inflation. Interestingly, among all food items, import payments for these three items are highest. Though the import‐consumption ratio of rice is very low, it is significantly higher for wheat and edible oil. However, since these are relatively high‐weighted food items, even low import ratios of these commodities play a greater role in overall inflation in the country. Thus it is important for Bangladesh to maintain stable prices of these three food items at the import stage to mitigate their adverse effect on the domestic prices.”
Impact of high food prices Increased food prices is one of the primary reason for food insecurity in Bangladesh. In a country where 49% of the population live below the poverty line, and 42% of the total population survives on less than a dollar a day, the extreme poor simply do not have enough money for food, let alone enough to eat nutritiously. Other adverse effects of high food prices include reduced household income of the households in real terms and
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11 January 2009 thus increase in poverty incidence, higher effective inflation for the poor households than average inflation due to higher share of total expenditure devoted to food by the poor households. Hence, the welfare of the poor consumers and farmers in Bangladesh and other developing countries are more vulnerable to food price hikes. Poverty is the major factor effecting food security in Bangladesh. Despite the impressive increases in food grain, around half of Bangladeshis remain below the established food based poverty line. And, as many as one third are living in extreme poverty and severely undernourished. Recent food price increases, regular natural disasters, and strains on the global economic market have caused additional destabilization.
Ensuring Sustainability of Price Reductions The Awami League‐led grand alliance government is starting off a favourable base as food prices and overall inflation in the country have started to come down since November 2008 due to dramatic declines in global commodity prices in the backdrop of the global economic crisis. In November, inflation on a point‐to‐point basis th came down to 6.12%. In January 6 this year the food stock stood at 1.26mn metric tons, while in Bangladesh's present context a stock of 0.8mn to 1mn metric tons is considered a safe reserve; In July‐Nov 2008 the food stock in the country increased by 82% from the same period in 2007. However, there is reason for concern as rice prices are expected to rise again – according to the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) rice prices are likely to rise sharply for the second year in 2009. Although a drop in oil and fertilizer costs has significantly lowered the price of rice ‐ a staple for almost 700 million of Asia's poorest – rice prices could increase again this year as farmers struggle to secure loans amid the credit crunch. According to Samarendu Mohanty, head of social sciences at the rice institute, he ongoing credit crisis makes it hard to secure loans for purchasing seeds and fertilizer, and farmers may plant less or switch to less expensive staples. At the same time, he added, the economic downturn may increase demand for rice in developing nations as falling income forces poor people to switch back to less expensive staples. Therefore, production uncertainty due to tight credit and declining rice prices combined with strong demand growth points to another rise in rice prices in the coming months. The new government is already being proactive in attaining its goal of reducing prices of essentials. During a meeting held last week, the council of Ministers decided to cut diesel prices and raise the level of subsidy for fertilizers with the objective of boosting Boro crop production. The government needs to make sure that the cost of production of rice is below the market price of rice, in order to maintain the farmers’ interest in rice cultivation. The price of rice has started to fall across the country owing to a decline in global commodity and food prices, and a high level of domestic food stock. Although this is a welcome development, it is still a concern at the farmers’ level, as the market price of rice has gone down below its cost of production because of higher costs of inputs, including fertilizers. Therefore, the government needs to roughly determine the minimum level of the price of rice, and then calculate the amount of subsidy needed for inputs.
P
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According to a study on inflation conducted by the Bangladesh Bank, “[In 2007 and 2008] The effect of higher international prices of three major food products (rice, wheat, and edible oil) on their domestic prices was partly neutralized by an exchange rate policy that maintained a relatively stable value of BDT/ USD. This suggests an active role of exchange rate policies in mitigating the pass‐through problem at the import stage. Second, commodity specific trade policies such as reduction of tariffs and taxes on food items have contributed to ensuring more stable domestic prices in Bangladesh relative to world prices and keeping the pass‐ through elasticity at less than unity. Third, reducing import tariff on food commodities certainly is favorable to the domestic consumers and may help to ease domestic prices. However, this should be weighed against its adverse effect on domestic revenue earnings at the import stage. This could be substantial in specific cases, especially when the tariff is reduced on the large volume of imports. If it happens, then the tax authority should review the existing tax measures to help recover the revenue loss.” Along with exchange rate and trade policies aimed at reducing price volatility, the new government also needs to maintain a good Boro rice and Aman rice production, and should ensure that the food gets to the poor people through different government channels. Agronomic practices should also be changed to lower consumptive need of water and thus lower irrigation and production costs. The importance of giving highest priority to increasing domestic production of important food commodities such as rice cannot be overemphasized, as the key to food security is availability of affordable food. Figure 4 shows that in the short run even small decreases in supply can cause large increases in price. To maintain a stable food supply at reasonable prices, the government can directly buy or stock food commodities from the producers at reasonable prices and distribute through effective channels. Moreover, it is likely to serve a dual purpose ‐ first, it can ensure an increased flow of supply from domestic sources; secondly, it can encourage the agricultural producers to continue with their efforts to increasing agricultural production in a sustained manner. Figure 4: In Bangladesh the demand for staple food items (such as rice and wheat) and the short run supply of these food items are highly inelastic. In the short run, small increases in demand or small decreases in supply can cause large increases in price. Elastic Supply Inelastic Supply P S S • • • • • • • • Demand Increases Demand Increases Q Q In the short term measures the government needs to undertake for ensuring a steady supply of rice at affordable prices should include the adoption of hybrid rice, use of quality seeds, reducing yield gaps through better crop management, and an efficient operation of input markets. In the long term, R&D investments should be increased so that more productive and cost efficient rice varieties can be produced.
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11 January 2009 between public research institutions and the private Short‐term measures In Bangladesh, traditional varieties still cover about half of the rice area in the Aman season, while High Yielding Varieties (HYV) dominates in the Boro season. High value rice accounts for only about 5% of the total annual rice production of Bangladesh. The most serious constraints to increased production and sales of high‐value rice involve problems with post harvest processing and milling, threshing, drying etc. large‐scale exports of long‐grained rice (such as basmati) from Bangladesh are feasible, in principle, if the post harvest problems that particularly plague long‐grained rice can be overcome. Some short term policies that the government needs to take should include: Formulation, distribution, and enforcement of grades and standards: • A national committee may be formed in collaboration with BSTI as the lead organization, to research and establish grades for fine and high value rice. • The committee should include members from BRRI, BD rice exporters association, the ministry of agriculture, and other institutions related to rice trade. • BRRI should continue to develop improved varieties of traditional fine rice and concentrate on developing a slender, long grained high yielding variety suited to local conditions in production, postharvest management, and processing.
sector would yield mutual benefits.
•
The high‐value rice industry, where closer coordination between plant breeders and those involved in trade, especially the rice milling industry, is needed to develop improved varieties of traditional fine rice with such characteristics as palatability, aroma, higher milling out‐ turn, and lower cost of production.
Long‐term measures Between 1997/98 and 2004/05, expenditure for agricultural research as a share of total agricultural GDP ranged from 0.2% to 0.34%. This level of expenditure is considerably lower than it is in other developing countries as a whole, which averaged 0.62% of agricultural GDP, and significantly lower than expenditure on agricultural research in developed countries, which averaged 2.8% of agricultural GDP. Research for high‐value agro commodities like horticultural crops, fisheries and livestock should be given greater attention in the long run. Sub‐sectors of agriculture where research could be useful: • Fruits and vegetables processing, where research is needed to assist with processing techniques, equipment application and manufacture, and new product development. • Aquaculture, where research is needed to reduce genetic degradation in carp stocks. The DOF and BFRI have extensive facilities; the universities (including BAU) and BFRI have strengths in genetics and technical know‐ how; and the private sector would bring an element of commercial drive to the program and possibly partial financing. • The poultry industry, where there is demand for more research on production methods and technologies, nutrition, processing and bio‐security. A partnership
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11 January 2009 Appendix 1: Cabinet Members
Name Sheikh Hasina
Abul Maal Abdul Muhit Motia Chowdhury Abdul Latif Siddiqui Barrister Shafiq Ahmed AK Khandaker Raziuddin Razu Advocate Sahara Khatun Syed Ashraful Islam Khandker Musharraf Hossain Rezaul Karim Hira Abul Kalam Azad Enamul Haq Mostafa Shahid Dilip Barua Ramesh Chandra Sen GM Quader Faruq Khan Syed Abul Hossain Dr Abdur Razzaq Dr Afsarul Amin Dr AFM Ruhul Haq Dr Dipu Moni Nurul Islam Nahid ‐ Abdul Latif Biswash ‐
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Ministry Establishment, energy and power, religious affairs, housing and public works, women affairs and defence ministries Finance Agriculture Textile and Jute industry Law, justice and parliamentary affairs Planning Post and Telecommunication Home Local government and rural development Labour and employment, Expatriates' welfare and Overseas employment Land Information and Cultural affairs Social welfare Industries Water Resources Civil aviation and Tourism Commerce Communication Food and Disaster management Shipping and Inland water transport Health and Family welfare Foreign affairs Education and primary and mass education Fisheries and livestock
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11 January 2009
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Appendix 2:
Foodgrain Production and Requirement (Figures in Thousand metric tons) Year
Domestic Production
Food grain Requirement
Rice
1989-90
18029.60
1990-91
18377.28
1991-92 1992-93
Import/Donation
Imoprt as a % of total food grain
Total domestic production as a % of total food grain
Wheat
Maize
Total
(Rice+Wheat)
17710.00
890.00
3.30
18603.30
1533.00
8%
92%
17785.00
1004.00
3.00
18792.00
1577.00
8%
92%
18708.40
18255.00
1065.00
3.00
19323.00
1564.00
7%
93%
19039.52
18341.00
1176.00
7.00
19524.00
1183.00
6%
94%
1993-94
19370.65
18041.60
1131.00
15.00
19187.60
966.00
5%
95%
1994-95
19701.77
16832.70
1245.00
29.10
18106.80
2566.00
12%
88%
1995-96
20215.01
17687.00
1369.00
32.00
19088.00
2427.00
11%
89%
1996-97
20579.24
18880.00
1454.00
40.70
20374.70
967.00
5%
95%
1997-98
20943.48
18861.71
1802.80
65.30
20729.81
1951.00
9%
91%
1998-99
21208.37
19904.58
1908.40
84.50
21897.48
5491.00
20%
80%
1999-00
21489.83
23067.00
1840.00 120.70
25027.70
2104.00
8%
92%
2000-01
21771.28
25085.00
1673.00 149.20
26907.20
1554.00
5%
95%
2001-02
22094.13
24300.00
1606.00 172.40
26078.40
1799.00
6%
94%
2002-03
22350.75
25189.85
1596.70 117.30
26903.85
3221.00
11%
89%
2003-04
22549.42
26189.40
1253.30 241.00
27683.70
2799.00
9%
91%
2004-05
22855.71
25156.00
976.00 356.00
26488.00
3375.00
11%
89%
2005-06
23029.55
26530.00
735.00 522.00
27787.00
2562.00
8%
92%
Source : Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) and Ministry of Food (MOF)
Note: (i) Foodgrain Requirement is calculated @ 16 Ounce (453.66 gm) per day per head from 1971-72 to 2020 (ii) Net Total Production is calculated by deducting 11.58 % of total Production for seed, feed & wastage as per study on 'Seed, Feed and Post Harvest losses' Ministry of Food (MOF) (iii) Population as per Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) estimation (iv) Projected Production of Rice, Wheat, Maize as per Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) estimation (v) Figures for 2005-06 as per Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) estimation
_______________________________________________________________________________________ AT Capital Weekly Update
11
11 January 2009
Stock Market Weekly
DSE performance: 52 weeks
Market news
Weighted avg. P/E Ratio*
This Week Last Week % Change
*Weighted on Market Cap.
17.83 18.1 ‐1.5%
• •
DSE body okays listing of BSRM Institute of capital market by March
Regional stock market performance (last week)
DSE performance: 30 days
Market summary Index performance Opening of this week Closing of this week Change within a week (%) Change within a week (Point) Capitalization and turnover Number of Trading Days Market Capitalization (USD bn) Total Turnover (USD mn) Daily Avg. Turnover (USD mn) Total Volume (mn) Daily Avg. Volume (mn)
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Valuation snapshot
DSE General Index
DSE 20
2807.61 2760.67 ‐1.7% ‐46.9
2,316.5 2,271.2 ‐2.0% ‐45.3
This Week
Last Week
% Change
4 14.85 232 57.99 83 21
3 15.30 168 56.11 67 22
‐2.92% 37.8% 3.4% 23.9% ‐7.1%
Issues
Advanced Declined Unchanged
Not Traded
This Week 155 102 4 34
Last Week 196 39 8 52
Banks Cement Ceramic Engineering Food & Allied Fuel & Power Insurance Investment IT Jute Miscellaneous Paper & Printing Pharmaceuticals Service & Real Estate Tannery Textiles
Aug‐08 19.08 10.96 49.92 39.11 17.85 17.81 23.17 45.08 41.44 16.16 25.46 8.36 23.97 20.57 19.05 15.74
Sector P/E Sep‐08 Oct‐08 Nov‐08 18.24 15.62 15.62 10.34 10.32 8.91 43.93 41.76 32.17 41.36 40.8 31.94 19.44 17.09 14.77 20.2 19.14 16.29 24.77 23.12 17.69 55.48 28.93 21.42 45.64 47.89 33.96 16.16 14.18 14.18 33.95 32.2 23.32 8.08 9.97 7.32 28.45 30.25 26.26 22.87 23.55 18.74 19.89 18.44 14.87 15.45 14.55 12.43 Source: Dhaka Stock Exchange
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12
11 January 2009
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Stock Market News DSE body okays listing of BSRM The Financial Express, Wednesday January 7, 2008 The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) listing sub‐committee has recommended listing BSRM Steels Limited, the country's largest steel company. The BSRM floated two million ordinary shares at a face value of BDT 100 (USD 1.45) each to raise BDT 200mn (USD 2.9mn) from the markets. The after‐IPO (initial public offering) paid up capital of the company is BDT 1.45bn (21.06mn). The fund raised from the initial public offering will be used for financing working capital (partial) of the company. Subscription for ordinary shares allotment of BSRM started on November 9th, 2008 and closed on November 13th, 2008 for resident Bangladeshis and on November 22, 2008 for non‐resident Bangladeshis. http://www.thefinancialexpress‐ bd.com/search_index.php?page=detail_news&news_id=55308 Institute of capital market by March The Daily Star, Wednesday, January 7, 2009 An educational institute concentrating on capital market studies will open from March this year; the institution will provide training pertaining to the country's stock market. There is a significant shortage people who have a good knowledge about the country’s capital market. The institution named 'Bangladesh Institute of Capital Market' (BICM) will initially offer short‐term training courses on capital markets to anyone who is interested, including people already working in the industry. Long term plans include the introduction of PhD and MPhil courses. http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=70355
_______________________________________________________________________________________ AT Capital Weekly Update
13
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
11 January 2009
DGEN Performance YTD
DGEN Performance LTM
Turnover leaders (All figures in mn) Beximco Pharma Summit Power Titas Gas Shinepukur Ceramics Limited BEXIMCO ACI Formulation Limited Grameen One: Scheme2 Aims 1st M.F. Uttara Bank NBL
Best performers* BDT 1370 1291 1195 1154 759 525 515 446 302 286
USD 19.9 18.8 17.4 16.8 11.0 7.6 7.5 6.5 4.4 4.2
Maksons Spinning Mills Limited Fine Foods Limited Orion Infusion Bd. Welding Electrodes
% Change
% Change
28.8% 26.4% 24.5% 24.4%
Beximco Synthetics 1st Lease International Shaympur Sugar Delta Spinners Standard Ceramic Legacy Footwear
Source: Dhaka Stock Exchange
Worst performers*
23.2% 22.3% 21.2% 20.8% 19.7% 19.4%
Wata Chemicals Meghna Life Insurance Monno Stafllers Prime Islami Life National Housing Finance and Investment Limited Northern Jute Pragati Life Insurance MIDAS Financing Ltd. Reliance Insurance Sandhani Life Insurance
‐16.7% ‐10.4% ‐10.2% ‐10.0% ‐9.1% ‐8.8% ‐7.9% ‐7.8% ‐7.8% ‐7.8% *By closing price
Market cap. by sector* Banks Fuel & Power Pharmaceuticals Insurance Cement Miscellaneous Engineering Foods Textile Service & Real Estate Tannery Ceramics IT Paper & Printing Jute Total
51.0% 13.8% 11.6% 5.5% 5.1% 3.0% 2.4% 2.1% 1.9% 1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.03% 100%
Correlation with other indices*
S&P500
S&P500
1
Sensex
NIKKEI225
Hangseng
DSE
KSE100
Sensex
0.609533
1
NIKKEI225
0.479296
0.57751
1
KSE100
0.137983
0.245628
0.136849
1
SSECI
0.315464
0.411735
0.245613
0.09449
SSECI
FTSE100
1
FTSE100
0.843726
0.610483
0.494904
0.238387
0.431538
1
Hangseng
0.704434
0.677905
0.526227
0.110829
0.509843
0.786434
DSE
0.161589
0.193995
0.103366
1
‐0.05588 0.035032 0.131261 0.143725 * Based on the last 86 months’ USD returns Source: AT Capital Research
1
*As of November 30, 2008
Research Team Ifty Islam Managing Partner
Syeed Khan
Partner
ifty.islam@at‐capital.com
syeed.khan@at‐capital.com
Mohammad Emran Hasan Senior Associate
emran.hasan@at‐capital.com
_______________________________________________________________________________________ AT Capital Weekly Update
14
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
11 January 2009
Economics Selected macroeconomic indicators
Market news
06‐Jan‐08
30‐Dec‐08
06‐Jan‐09
Forex reserves (USD mn)
5062.22
5787.80
5349.17
USD‐BDT average rate
68.5800
68.9349
68.9500
6.57
13.39
9.42
Call money rate
• •
Dec‐07 Remittances (USD mn) Annual %age change
Dec‐08
635.34
765.79
7,914.78
14.46
20.53
32.39
P
Oct‐07 Imports (USD mn) Annual %age change
Oct‐08
Annual %age change
2,090.40
21,629.00
27.18
26.70
26.07
Current A/C Balance (USD mn)
867.69
14,110.80
8.12
‐7.84
15.87
P
Sep‐08
Tax revenue (USD mn) Annual %age change
2007‐08
46.00 P
Nov‐07
Remittance sets benchmark. USD10b expected this year
2007‐08
941.48
20.00
•
Latest treasury yields
P
Oct ‐08
Sep‐07
2007‐08
1,649.90
Oct ‐07 Exports (USD mn)
2007‐08
Import expenses up by 19.3% in first six months of FY 09 BDT maintains impressive stability
Nov‐08
672.00
2007‐08
506.24
551.57
6,868.43
26.59
8.96
27.06
Auction date
Tenor & security type
Weighted average yield
Dec-08
91-day T-bill
7.91%
Dec-08
182-day T-bill
8.16%
Dec-08
364-day T-bill
8.58%
Dec-08
5-year T-bond
10.60%
Dec-08
10-year T-bond
11.72%
Source: Bangladesh Bank
Source: Selected indicators by Bangladesh Bank, 17 December 2008
Import expenses up by 19.3% in first six months of FY09
Latest Bangladesh Inflation Rates Sep‐08 General
Nov‐08
209.31
10.19
7.26
6.12
227.66
226.88
223.98
Inflation Food
Oct‐08
210.14
207.14
Inflation
12.07
8.08
6.68
Non‐food
187.10
186.13
184.95
5.95
5.25
Inflation
7.19
Source: Bangladesh Bank
Jisha Sarwar Senior Research Associate Jisha.sarwar@at‐capital.com
_______________________________________________________________________________________ AT Capital Weekly Update
15
11 January 2009
Economic News Import expenses up by 19.3% in first six months of FY 09 The Financial Express, Sunday January 11th, 2009 Fuel oils and commodities worth USD 10.8bn were imported during the first six months of FY 09. The value of imports was 19.3% higher compared to the first six months of FY 08. During the first six months of FY 08 and FY 07, the value of imports was USD 9.1bn and USD 7.7bn, respectively. However, the number of LCs opened dropped by 30% in December 2008 from a year ago. According to the Bangladesh bank chief economist MK Mujeri, “The lower import payment has eased pressure on the country’s balance of payments.” In FY 08 record high prices of commodity items such as fuel, edible oil, rice, wheat, and baby food, pushed up average monthly import payments to around USD 2bn. However, prices of fuel oils and other commodities started to decline significantly in recent months due to the global economic crisis. According to Mr. Mujeri, lower import payments have helped in easing inflationary pressures – inflation in October and November stood at 7.3% and 6.1%, respectively. http://www.thefinancialexpress‐bd.info/2009/01/11/55621.html BDT maintains impressive stability The Financial Express, Wednesday January 7th, 2009 The Bangladesh Taka (BDT) remained stable throughout 2008, while globally currencies were extremely volatile due to the global economic crisis, noted the Standard Chartered bank in its 'Financial Markets Round‐up 2008’ report. Throughout 2008 the Taka remained fairly steady between 68.5 ‐ 69.5 per USD. Though import growth outpaced export, record high remittance inflows eased the pressure causing the rate to move within a limited range, the roundup noted. The report further stated that while the Taka remained stable against the dollar throughout 2008, currencies in neighboring regions, such as Pakistan and India, lost ground against the greenback. At the end of the year, the Indian Rupee was 48.8 per USD, down by 24% since the beginning of the year, while the Pakistan Rupee declined by 28% to 78.8 per USD over the same period. The BDT, however, was extremely volatile against other major currencies, such as the Euro and the Pound, corresponding with their volatility against the US currency. The Euro went up to BDT 111 in July and fell to BDT 88 in November, before bouncing back to BDT 100 at the end of the year. Similarly, the Pound went up to BDT 141 in March but fell to BDT103 in November. The report noted that the local money market experienced some volatility in 2008. The market remained stable in 2007, owing to surplus liquidity in the system. However, call money rates started to increase from January 2008. Consequently, the Central Bank injected liquidity into the system, which helped in making the
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
market stable. Call rates hovered between 7% and 15% in 2008 compared to 6.5% and 9.5% in 2007. The central bank used Repo tools allowing banks to borrow taka against government approved securities, and also bought back government bills and bonds that were sold earlier. The continuous liquidity support allowed banks to manage funding and help credit growth in the economy. Disclosing its observations on secondary market the roundup said the central bank's initiatives to activate a deep secondary market for government bills and bonds started to see results in 2008 with significant rise in secondary trading led by primary dealer (PD) banks and some other non‐PD banks. There is now a widespread understanding of bond trading dynamics and settlement processes among the banks. http://www.thefinancialexpress‐bd.info/2009/01/07/55315.html Remittance sets benchmark. USD10b expected this year The Daily Star, Monday January 5th, 2009 Remittance inflows set a new record in 2008 crossing an 8bn‐ dollar mark, owing to an increase in the number of people going abroad for employment. According to Bangladesh Bank (BB) statistics, in 2008 remittance inflow into the country grew by 25.4% to USD 8.2bn, up from USD 6.55bn in 2007. The average monthly remittance earnings during the past 11 months was more than USD 700mn. The central bank is optimistic that over USD10bn in remittances will come into the country in 2009, although there is some concern that the global recession might affect inflow. In 2008 around 875,000 workers went abroad to work, compared to 832,000 in 2007, and 381,000 in 2006. According to the World Bank and local think tanks, if the global recession prolongs, labor market growth in prime manpower exporting countries can slow down, affecting remittance inflow.
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16
11 January 2009 According to a report titled 'State of the Bangladesh Economy in the run‐up to the National Election 2008' released by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) in December, Saudi Arabia continued to rank as a major remittance source for Bangladesh. Remittance inflow from Saudi Arabia grew by 46.3% in Q1 FY09 from a year ago, and accounted for 29.9 % of the quarter’s total remittance earnings. Remittance inflow from Malaysia also grew significantly in recent years – in Q1 FY09 USD 53.83mn in remittances came in from Malaysia, up from only USD 5.89mn in Q1 FY08. The US is Bangladesh's second largest source of remittance, contributing to around 17.4 % of total earnings till now in FY09. According to the CPD report, the financial crisis is not likely to affect the Middle Eastern (ME) economies as badly as the Western economies. Hence, remittance inflow from the Middle East is unlikely to decline much. http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=70065
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
_______________________________________________________________________________________ AT Capital Weekly Update
17
11 January 2009
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Sector News
Agriculture
http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=70668
Government needs additional BDT 17bn (USD 248mn) as subsidy for non‐urea fertilizer marketing The Financial Express, Sunday, January 11, 2009 The government needs an additional amount of BDT 17bn (USD 248mn) this year as subsidy for marketing non‐urea fertilizers at lower‐than‐the‐purchasing prices by importers. The government spent BDT 7.33bn (USD 106.5mn) for supplying different types of non‐urea fertilizers to farmers at subsidized prices in FY 08. Officials and trading sources said the importers are facing huge financial losses following a drastic fall in the prices of non‐urea fertilizers in the global market. Nearly 80% of the imported non‐ urea fertilizers remained unsold in the domestic market.
Mustard cultivation benefiting farmers of Faridpur The Financial Express, Wednesday, January 7, 2009 Mustard cultivation has proven to be very profitable to farmers in the Faridpur district because of its low cost of production. According to farmers, prices of fertilizers and other agricultural inputs have shot up, increasing the cost of production of all crops. However, mustard requires much less fertilizers than other crops, keeping its production cost lower. The DAE officials said farmers cultivated mustard seeds on 7500 hectares of land this season, up from only 1900 hectares during the previous years. http://www.thefinancialexpress‐bd.com/2009/01/07/55302.html
http://www.thefinancialexpress‐bd.com/2009/01/11/55633.html
Aviation
Rice prices may surge again this year: Experts The Daily Star, Saturday, January 10, 2009 Rice prices are likely to rise sharply for the second year in 2009 as the global economic slowdown hits both farmers and consumers, the International Rice Research Institute warned. The worldwide credit crunch will make it hard for farmers to secure cash to purchase essentials such as seeds and fertilizer, the Philippines‐ based research institute stated in the latest edition of its quarterly journal "Rice Today". At the same time, the economic downturn may increase demand for rice in developing nations as falling income forces poor people to switch to less expensive staples. The price of rice ‐‐ a staple food for half the world including nearly 700mn poor Asians‐ spiked to USD 1,080 a tonne last April. The institute warned that price volatility will remain high. The only solution for the government is to boost rice yield growth through higher investment in research, and developing agricultural infrastructure to allow rice farmers to put new scientific breakthroughs to work.
GMG to expand routes, expects growth in passengers in future The New Nation, Monday January 5, 2009 The country’s aviation industry remains strong in the face of recent abnormally high fuel prices in the global market. Shahab Sattar, Managing Director of GMG Airlines, stated that the annual growth rate of passengers in Bangladesh is 12 to 14% while the global growth rate stands at around 6%. GMG airlines recently acquired an MD‐83 aircraft priced at around USD 80mn from US‐based General Electric Capital Aviation Service, with a seating capacity for 150 passengers. The new aircraft will take passengers to Bangkok and Hong Kong from mid January. Two more aircrafts will be added to the existing GMG fleet of six by the end of this year as the leading private operator eyes new routes. The airline will go for expansion from the second quarter of the current calendar year. GMG operates flights in all domestic routes except Rajshahi and Syedpur. Their international destinations include Kolkata, Dubai, and Kathmandu. Currently the airline flies to 18 international destinations each week. According to the GMG MD, the airline incurred a total loss of around BDT 50mn (USD 0.73mn) in 2008 when fuel price peaked to an all‐time high of USD147 per barrel; in 2007 they made a profit of BDT 100mn (USD 1.45mn). GMG wants to increase its number or passengers from currently 500,000 to 1mn by the end of this year. http://nation.ittefaq.com/issues/2009/01/05/news0991.htm
http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=70643
Supply fertilizers at low price for bumper “Boro yield”: Experts urge government The Daily Star, Saturday, January 10, 2009 Experts said the new government should immediately supply fertilizers at low price by providing subsidy so that farmers can produce bumper “Boro” paddy in the next season. They also suggested forming a citizens' committee in every region to find out irregularities in the distribution of fertilizers as well as ways to stop them. The prices of rice and other essentials cannot be reduced without decreasing the production costs. For this reason, the government will have to ensure sufficient power supply for irrigation. According to the experts, it is very difficult to eliminate syndicates who are responsible for skyrocketing prices of commodities and the government should form a farmers' committee and set up a commodity exchange market in every region.
_______________________________________________________________________________________ AT Capital Weekly Update
18
11 January 2009
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Banking SCB gets $10m OD for import bill settlement The Financial Express, Thursday January 8th, 2009 The central bank provided overdraft (OD) facilities worth USD 10mn to a state‐owned commercial bank (SCB) on Wednesday for settlement of oil import payment. Import of petroleum products rose sharply by 36.3% to USD 1.03bn during the July‐November period of FY 09 compared to USD 755.7mn during the same period in FY 08. On January 5th, the BB offered OD facilities worth USD 12mn to another SCB for settlement of Petrobangla's outstanding gas bills with an international oil company.
Private sector credit down by 2% in October The Financial Express, Monday January 5th, 2009 Private sector credit growth declined to 24.7% in October 08 from 26.6% in September, because of a base year effect and fall in commodity prices in the global market. Credit flow into the private sector increased by 24.7% to BDT 397.4bn (USD 5.77bn) in October 2008 from BDT 223.99bn (USD 3.25bn) in October 2007. The Bangladesh Bank (BB) forecasts private sector credit growth to increase by 18‐20% in FY 09. The use of credit for purchasing consumer goods increased by 93.3% in FY 08. During the period, marriage loans went up by 60.7%, and loans for purchasing apartments increased by 44.1%. http://www.thefinancialexpress‐bd.info/2009/01/05/55176.html
http://www.thefinancialexpress‐ bd.info/search_index.php?page=detail_news&news_id=55410
Islamic banking shines, Deposits grow by 21pc in the year to June 2008 The Daily Star, Tuesday January 6th, 2009 Deposits of the Islamic banking industry grew by 21 % in FY 08, compared to 15% growth in deposits of the conventional banking industry, according to Bangladesh Bank data. In FY 08 BDT 608bn (USD 8.82bn) was deposited in the country’s Islamic banks. In June 2008, BDT 347.3bn (USD 5.04bn) was deposited to Islamic banks, up from BDT 286.5bn (USD 4.16bn) in June 2007. Out of 48 banks in Bangladesh, six private commercial banks are operating as full‐fledged Islamic banks and 21 branches of 10 conventional banks are involved in the Islamic banking business. Total investment of Islamic banks increased to 349.1bn (USD 5.06bn) in June 2008, from BDT 265.4bn (USD 3.85bn) in June 2007. Bangladesh introduced the Islamic banking system in 1983. Popularity of this banking system is spreading worldwide, especially among Muslims, for its interest‐free nature. According to Qatar Islamic Bank (QIB), the Islamic banking system is expected to become a USD 4tn global business within the next five years.
Diesel price to be cut this month The New Nation, Sunday January 11, 2009 The government is likely to reduce diesel prices within this month, according to a senior official from the Energy Ministry. The government in its first Cabinet meeting on January 7 decided to reduce the price of diesel in the current Boro irrigation season. Following the Cabinet decision, the Energy Division asked the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) to readjust the diesel price in line with the recent trend in the international market. The caretaker government reduced the price of fuel twice. After the latest price adjustment, diesel and kerosene prices came down to BDT 46 per litre in the local market. http://nation.ittefaq.com/issues/2009/01/11/news0339.htm New power policy to attract local investors
http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news‐details.php?nid=70217
Infrastructure & Energy
The Daily Star, Tuesday January 6, 2008
The caretaker government last month approved a policy welcoming greater participation of local private entrepreneurs in the power sector and their wider involvement in selling electricity to consumers. The Policy Guidelines for Enhancement of Private Participation in the Power Sector, 2008 welcomes foreign private investors as before. But for the first time, it offers local investors the same financial incentives offered to foreign investors. These incentives include exemption of corporate income tax for 15 years, 12 years duty‐free spare parts import worth maximum 10% of the original value of the plant, freedom for investors to buy insurance of their choice, tax exemption on royalties, technical know‐how, tax exemption on interest on foreign loans, capital gains from transfer of shares, among others. The commercial power plants will be given preference in developing coalmines and purchasing coal from existing coalmines as per a provision of the coal policy. The amended policy is also in favor of developing new power plants and rehabilitating some of the old and inefficient ones through public‐private partnerships under Rehabilitate, Own and Operate (ROO) and Rehabilitate, Operate and Transfer (ROT) models.
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19
11 January 2009 The policy also says that private commercial power plants will find their own buyers to sell electricity and will be able to negotiate the applicable tariffs with consumers. The Power Grid Company of Bangladesh and other distribution licensees will provide non‐ discriminatory open access to their transmission and distribution system for use by any generation licensees. http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=70239 Tamim suggests coal, offshore bidding in six months The Daily Star, Tuesday January 6, 2008
The outgoing chief adviser's special assistant for power and energy has suggested the new government to reach a decision on coal and offshore bidding within the next six months. Tamim also pointed out that the generation of a few hundred megawatt of electricity by the outgoing caretaker government (CG) will make it easier for the new government for at least one year. He disclosed that a renewable energy policy will be implemented soon. http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=70223
Pharmaceuticals
Pharma sector posts double‐digit growth The Daily Star, Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Overall sales of Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical sector, comprising of 258 companies, crossed BDT 40bn (USD 584mn) in 2008 for the first time, registering a record double‐digit growth. According to Intercontinental Marketing Services (IMS), a global pharmaceutical market intelligence agency, Bangladesh medicine sales reached BDT 37bn (USD 540mn) in 2007 and BDT 35.42bn (USD 517mn) in 2006. According to Industry insiders, more public health awareness, aggressive marketing by local companies and increased investments in the sector have contributed to the surge in sales. The industry welcomed over 50 new factories in the last three years, out of which about two dozen started marketing with aggressive sales and promotion strategies during 2008. The market is becoming more and more competitive in terms of both price and quality as many factories have introduced state of art technologies to capture a greater market share.
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Real Estate Nina ventures into BDT 1500mn project The Daily Star, Sunday January 11, 2009 Nina Holdings Ltd, a sister concern of export‐oriented Epyllion Group that has been engaged in manufacturing and exporting of knit fabrics and apparels since 1994, has entered the real estate market – the company is constructing a 14‐storey commercial building in Tejgaon Industrial Area in Dhaka at an estimated cost of around BDT 1500mn (USD 21.7mn). Of the total cost, BDT 472mn (USD 6,85mn) will be financed by five local banks. The real estate company sealed a syndicated term loan agreement on January 4th with Bank Asia, and four other banks ‐ AB Bank, IFIC Bank, Premier Bank and United Commercial Bank. Around 25‐30% space in the commercial building will be dedicated for Epyllion and its subsidiary companies, while the rest of the space will be rented to other corporate or business houses. The building is being constructed on an area of 21,000 square foot land, while each floor will have 14,000 square foot space. Epyllion has 10 subsidiaries comprising of six garment units, two textile units and two garment accessory units. The group, which exported goods worth USD70mn in FY 08 mainly to the European and US markets, targets exports this fiscal year also. http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=70782 Prices of most construction materials fall in local markets The Financial Express, Sunday, January 11, 2009 Prices of most of the construction materials have declined in the local market recently following lower import costs of raw materials and the slow pace of development work in the country. Prices of mild steel (MS) rod, cement, bricks, sand and stone declined significantly in recent days due to lower local demand as public development work was minimal in the last two years followed by a slowdown in private construction work. http://www.thefinancialexpress‐bd.com/2009/01/11/55627.html
Telecoms
NTTN license first step to build Digital Bangladesh by 2021: The New Nation, Thursday January 8, 2009 The first license of Nationwide Telecommunication Transmission Network (NTTN) was handed over to Fiber@Home Limited on Jan 7th. According to the BTRC chairman, with the completion of NTTN, rural people will be connected with telecommunication and internet network, and internet penetration will increase. BTRC sources said, Fibre @ Home Limited will set up and run optical fibre‐based NTTN which will help telecom service providers to give service up to 'end users'. As per the NTTN guideline, a licensee is required to submit a bank guarantee as security deposit worth BDT 100mn (USD 1.45mn) within 15 days of issuance of the licence with a minimum validity of five years.
http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=70219
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20
11 January 2009
Textiles Apparel exporters seek cash incentives The Financial Express, Saturday, January 10, 2009 According to apparel exporters, the government should introduce financial incentives for export‐oriented industries as export orders are declining as a result of the global financial meltdown. They said the government should immediately meet with the export earning sectors to formulate ways to make local exports competitive. They also added that the government could re‐ introduce export performance benefits which existed during the 80's, or some kind of bailout packages. The country's export earnings in October 2008 declined by 8% from October 2007. Exporters said China, a major RMG exporting country, recently withdrew 17% value added tax and slashed its interest rates for the sector. This is why China has again become competitive in the ongoing financial crisis. India, Vietnam and Pakistan also slashed different taxes imposed on raw materials and export of goods. India has devalued its currency by 25.8% over the past few months to make export goods competitive in the world market. Pakistan has also devalued its currency by 22.2% over the last few months while Vietnam has devalued its currency by 10.58% and offered different packages to its exporters. Local exporters suggested that the government could introduce a bailout package. Recently, the caretaker government suggested raising the cash incentive to 7.5% for those factories which have backward linkage facilities, although the exporters asked for a 10% cash incentive for the overall sector. The government in its budget for the current fiscal has kept aside BDT 10.40bn (USD 152mn) for providing cash subsidies to the country's export oriented industries. http://www.thefinancialexpress‐bd.com/2009/01/10/55503.html
Yarn sales decline The Daily Star, Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Yarn sales in the local market dropped significantly mainly due to a depreciation of the Indian currency against the US dollar by more than 20% and a slump in demand for apparel items in the international market. The spinning mill owners in Dhaka said that yarn kept piling up for four months up to December, as buyers now have the cheaper alternative of purchasing yarn from India. According to Bangladesh Bank (BB) data, L/Cs (letters of credit) worth USD 205.4mn for importing cotton yarn were settled in Q1 FY 08 compared to USD 142.7mn in the same period of 2007. The added advantage in yarn business for India is that it is one of the major cotton producing countries, whereas Bangladesh is a net importer of cotton mainly from Uzbekistan and other CIS (Commonwealth Independent States) countries. As a result, India can easily dump yarn on the Bangladesh market. Bangladesh can sell yarn at USD 2.55 per kg produced in their factories, but the same kind of Indian yarn sells at USD 2.15 per kg. It takes at least three months for Bangladesh to enjoy any benefit from price declines, as the country is a net importer of cotton and recently the prices of raw cotton declined significantly in the international market.
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
According to BTMA (Bangladesh Textiles Manufacturers Association) statistics, a total of 43 new spinning mills were set up in 2008 (January‐December) with 9,44,744 spindles and in 2007 a total of 28 mills were installed with 4,42,848 spindles. At present the country has a total of 341 spinning mills with an annual production capacity of 1600 million kg of yarn and the total investment in this sector is 4bn euros, BTMA statistics said. As per BKMEA data, Bangladesh consumed 789.6mn kg yarn in 2007‐08 fiscal year against 658.5mn kg in FY2006‐07, while the average consumption growth of yarn in the country is more than 21% per year. The BTMA chief said local yarn manufacturers now supply up to 90 % raw materials to the knitwear sub‐sector and 40 % to woven. http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=70353
Tourism Tourism booms on quiet politics The Daily Star, Sunday January 11, 2009 International Tourists In Bangladesh('000,000) 4 3.5 2.71 2.65 3 2.44 2.07 2 2 1 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(till Oct) Source: Bangladesh Parjatan Coorporation According to statistics from the civil aviation and tourism ministry, a total of 0.35mn foreign tourists visited Bangladesh until October 2008, increasing significantly from 0.27mn in 2007, 0.2mn in 2006 and 021mn in 2005. Apart from business tourists, the flow of regular tourists was also higher than the previous years. A big number of foreign tourists were garments and telecom investors who came to Bangladesh for business purposes. Better infrastructure including accommodation facilities and a developed aviation sector that is operating regular flights to major local tourist spots, such as Cox's Bazar, also contributed to the growth of the industry. http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news‐details.php?nid=70780
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AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
11 January 2009
AT Capital Team – Dhaka Ifty Islam Syeed Khan Akther Ahmed Masud Khan Jisha Sarwar Mohammad Emran Hasan Adeeb Shams Ahmad Sajid Abdullah‐Al‐Farooq M. Emrul Hasan Md. Zahidur Rahman Sohana Alam Seraj
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AT Capital Team – North America/Asia Zarif Munir Professor Jahangir Sultan, Ph.D. M. Nasim Ali Iqbal Hussain Robert Kraybill
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