Arthur Orlandoclimate08

The Science of Climate Change A Bahá'í Perspective Arthur Lyon Dahl Ph.D. International Environment Forum (IEF) http://www.bcca.org/ief Bahá'í Conference on Social and Economic Development Orlando, Florida, 20 December 2008 International Environment Forum

Why are we worried? • If climate change goes unchecked, its effects will be catastrophic “on the level of nuclear war”. • ‘The security dimension will come increasingly to the forefront as countries begin to see falls in available resources and economic vitality, increased stress on their armed forces, greater instability in regions of strategic import, increases in ethnic rivalries, and a widening gap between rich and poor’. International Institute for Strategic Studies, Strategic Survey 2007 (September 2007)

Greenhouse Effect

Carbon Dioxide, a Greenhouse Gas • We are interfering with the carbon cycle, releasing carbon from long-term storage by burning fossil fuels (oil, coal, natural gas) and adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere

Greenhouse gases and climate change • More heat in the atmosphere and oceans changes air and water circulation and climate • Local effects will be highly variable, and are not easily predictable • Various computer models are used to predict the effect of rising greenhouse gas levels on the climate • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change confirms a significant human climate impact

Past and Future CO2 Concentrations

Changes in greenhouse gas concentrations CO2

Methane

Nitrous oxides IPCC 2007

Carbon dioxide and temperature

We are all responsible for climate change • Everyone benefiting from the burning of fossil fuels is responsible • Everyone involved in land clearing or benefiting from land use changes is a contributor • How much we are responsible depends on our country of residence, lifestyle and consumption patterns, with the rich most responsible • The poor will be the greatest victims of climate change, while contributing the least to the problem • This is an ethical dilemma

National Carbon Dioxide Emissions Per Capita

Country Share of Global CO2 Emissions 2004 Highly concentrated (UNDP HDR 2007-2008)

Energy-related CO2 Emissions (UNDP HDR 2007-2008)

Cumulative CO2 Emissions by rich countries (UNDP HDR 2007-2008)

GHG Emissions by Sector (UNDP HDR 2007-2008)

Climate Change will be stronger and sooner • Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel have accelerated since 2000 • Rise in 1990s 0.7%/yr; 2.9% since 2000 • Three causes: growth in world economy, rise of coal use in China, weakening of natural carbon sinks (forests, seas, soils) • Growth in atmospheric CO2 about 35% higher than expected a few years ago

Temperature Trends

Temperature increase last 50 years

Climate Change Science • No science is perfect, and there are always different interpretations of the available data • Powerful interests have tried to discredit climate change science despite the overwhelming consensus of climate scientists on the human impact on global warming • The counter-arguments have been disproved one after the other • Even the latest IPCC report (2007) represents a very cautious compromise position reflecting what is certain, not probable

Signs of Climate Change











Many species are changing their latitudinal and altitudinal distributions in response to rising temperatures Coral reefs have suffered bleaching and mortality from unusually high temperatures The number of category 5 cyclones (hurricanes) has increased in all oceans over the last 30 years The last 12 years have seen 11 of the warmest years ever recorded

What the models say IPCC 2007

Ocean thermohaline circulation

Polar areas are changing fastest











Half of the permafrost in the Arctic is expected to melt by 2050 and 90% before 2100, releasing methane 14% of the permanent ice in the Arctic Ocean melted in 2005; 23% more in 2007(worst melting ever); almost as much in 2008; opening the North-West Passage; permanent ice in the Arctic Ocean may be gone by 2015-30 Greenland glaciers have doubled their rate of flow in the last few years, raising sea level 0.6 mm per year Similar melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet could add another 4 mm per year

Did 'Abdu'l-Bahá know about global warming? “Should the fire of the love of God be kindled in Greenland, all of the ice of that country will be melted, and its cold weather become temperate...” 'Abdu'l-Bahá (1916), Tablets of the Divine Plan, 5, p. 28

(He is also reported to have said that palm trees would grow in Chicago and Montreal.)

Arctic Temperature Scenario 2090

Predicted decrease in Arctic Ocean ice cover

Arctic Ocean permanent ice cover

Glacier retreat - Argentina (BBC News)

Retreat of the Rhone Glacier, Valais, Switzerland (BBC News)

Reduction in Snow 20802100

There is little time left to act














Global temperatures have already risen 0.6°C and wi ll probably rise a further 3°, or even up to 4.5-5°by 2100 Ocean temperatures have risen at least 3 km deep Glaciers and snow cover have decreased; cold days, nights and frost have become rarer; hot days, nights and heat-waves more frequent Sea level rise has doubled in 150 years to 2 mm/year, and recent polar melting may add another 4 mm/year Recent surge in CO2 levels from less uptake by plants

We may soon be approaching a tipping point where runaway climate change would be catastrophic

Agricultural Productivity 2080

Predicted changes in precipitation

December-February

June-August

Percent change 1900-1999 to 2000-2099 IPCC 2007

Biodiversity 2050

Biodiversity Impacts

Changing Biomes in South Africa

Coral reefs protect tropical coasts and provide fish but global warming could bleach and kill them

Climate change and coral reefs

Coral reefs will grow more slowly Carbon dioxide makes the water more acid

Ocean Acidification to 2100

The most vulnerable areas risking catastrophic collapse this century • • • •

Arctic Ocean and Greenland ice sheet Amazon rain forest Northern boreal forests El Nino affecting weather in North America, South-East Asia and Africa (3°C rise) • Collapse of West African monsoon • Erratic Indian summer monsoon

Human Impacts of Climate Change • Increased damage from extreme weather events: floods, droughts, cyclones • Less winter snowfall, melting glaciers, water shortages • Changing conditions for agriculture and forestry, shifting fish stocks, disease vectors • Sea level rise, flooding low-lying areas and islands • Millions of environmental refugees (500m-1b) • High costs of mitigation and adaptation • Greatest impact on the poor

Spread of Malaria 2050

Food Insecurity

Sea Level Rise 1870-2006

Projected sea(IPCC level rise to 2100 2007)

Effects of 1m Sea Level Rise

Rising sea levels will create millions of refugees

If you lived on a coral island What would you do if the sea level rose?

Carrie Bow Cay, Belize, Research Station of the Smithsonian Institution

Atoll: Butaritari, Kiribati

Tuvalu is already being flooded (BBC News)

Predicted Climate Refugees 2010 (IAASTD 2008)

Economic impact of natural disasters linked to global warming

Record $112 billion in 1998 Unprecedented $204 billion in 2005, reflecting the high number of disasters affecting built-up areas

Effect on the economy








The Stern Report estimated the annual cost of uncontrolled climate change at more than $660 billion (5 to 20% of global GDP, as compared to 1% for control measures for greenhouse gases). Climate change represents the greatest market failure in human history IPCC 4 says stabilizing greenhouse gases by 2030 will slow global growth 0.12%/yr or 3% total global GDP

Global warming is driven by our addiction to fossil fuels • Industrial economy depends on cheap energy, 80% from fossil fuels • Transportation, communications, trade, agriculture, urbanization, consumer lifestyle all depend on abundant energy • Energy needs +50% by 2030, half in China and India; coal +73%; CO2 emissions +57% (2/3 from US, China, India, Russia) • Adaptation will be expensive and the struggle for diminishing resources globally destabilizing

The double economic challenge “On current trends, ...humanity will need twice as much energy as it uses today within 35 years.... Produce too little energy, say the economists, and there will be price hikes and a financial crash unlike any the world has ever known, with possible resource wars, depression and famine. Produce the wrong sort of energy, say the climate scientists, and we will have more droughts, floods, rising seas and worldwide economic disaster with runaway global warming. John Vidal in The Guardian Weekly, 9-15 February 2007, Energy supplement, p. 3

Present institutions have failed to address such global challenges • No politician will sacrifice short-term economic welfare, even while agreeing that sustainability is essential in the long term • Deep social divisions within societies and between countries prevent united action in the common interest • Climate change is just one symptom of the fundamental imbalances in our world • Our present economic system is driving us in the wrong direction

The values underlying the economic system are threatened fundamentally - Economic thinking is challenged by the environmental crisis (including climate change) - The belief that there is no limit to nature's capacity to fulfil any demand made on it is false - A culture which attaches absolute value to expansion, to acquisition, and to the satisfaction of people's wants must recognise that such goals are not, by themselves, realistic guides to policy (based on The Prosperity of Humankind, Bahá'í International Community, 1995)

Climate change is driven by our consumer culture

- Materialism's gospel of human betterment produced today's consumer culture pursuing ephemeral goals - For the small minority of people who can afford them, the benefits it offers are immediate, and the rationale unapologetic - The breakdown of traditional morality has led to the triumph of animal impulse, as instinctive and blind as appetite - Selfishness becomes a prized commercial resource; falsehood reinvents itself as public information; greed, lust, indolence, pride - even violence - acquire not merely broad acceptance but social and economic value - Yet material comforts and acquisitions have been drained of meaning (based on Baha'i International Community, One Common Faith, 2005)

Ways forward Harness all available sources of energy on the surface of the planet (UN estimated investment required $20 trillion over 2 decades) Reduce environmental impact to sustainable limits Accelerate the transition to reduce the shock Create global governance mechanisms to manage this global challenge Share the cost, effort and benefits globally with equity and justice

A Global Approach is Necessary • Climate change cannot be separated from the challenges of economic globalization, energy and resource depletion, poverty reduction, social imbalances and security • Each problem interacts with the others in complex ways • Partial solutions will not solve the problems that threaten future sustainability

Moral and ethical challenge Mitigation of climate change... asks profound moral and ethical questions of our generation. In the face of clear evidence that inaction will hurt millions of people and consign them to lives of poverty and vulnerability, can we justify inaction? No civilized community adhering to even the most rudimentary ethical standards would answer that question in the affirmative, especially one that lacked neither the technology nor the financial resources to act decisively. UNDP Human Development Report 2007/2008, p. 68

Sustainability – an ethical concept As trustees or stewards of the planet's resources and biodiversity, we must: - ensure sustainability and equity of resource use into distant future - consider the environmental consequences of development activities - temper our actions with moderation and humility - understand the natural world and its role in humanity's collective development both material and spiritual (based on Bahá'í International Community, Valuing Spirituality in Development. 1998)


Sustainability is a fundamental responsibility

Sustainable environmental management must come to be seen... as a fundamental responsibility that must be shouldered, a pre-requisite for spiritual development as well as the individual's physical survival. (based on Bahá'í International Community, Valuing Spirituality in Development. 1998)


Moderation in Material Civilization The civilization, so often vaunted by the learned exponents of arts and sciences, will, if allowed to overleap the bounds of moderation, bring great evil upon men.... Bahá'u'lláh (1817-1892)

JUSTICE AND EQUITY It is unjust to sacrifice the well-being of most people -- and even of the planet itself -- to the advantages which technological breakthroughs can make available to privileged minorities (based on Baha'i International Community, Prosperity of Humankind)

Climate change may be the common threat that forces governments to work together in their collective interest

An ethical approach will be essential to convince all of us to act