Aff Avgas

SDI Fifth Week -- 2008 --Avgas – Aff ***Note: A three page-long index*** 1AC Modular Sections 

Inherency

p.4



Possible Plan texts

p. 5



Solvency contention

p. 6-9



China Modular Advantage

p. 10-14



Montreal Protocol Modular Advantage

p. 15-21



Agriculture Modular Advantages

p. 22-29



Terrorism Modular Advantage

p. 30-33

 Air Monitoring Modular Advantage

p. 34-38

Important T Blocks

 A-to Topicality – “Must be a Direct Incentive”

p. 39-40

 A-to Topicality – “Lifting a Barrier not Topical, Plan must be a Cash Flow”

p. 41-44

A-to States-Lopez Cplans 



A-to pure States Cplan o

2AC Frontline

p. 45-48

o

1AR extensions – Cplan gets Rolledback

p. 49-50

A-to Lopez Cplan (when Fed Lands are not delegated)

o

2AC Frontline

o

A-to “The Cplan functionally delegates authority to the States over Federal Lands” p. 55-56

p. 51-54

 A-to Lopez Cplan (when Fed Lands are delegated in the cplan text) o

2AC frontline

p. 57-60

o

1AR extension off of Federal AIP grants

p. 61

A-to Agent Cplans

 **Great general answers -- Supreme Court will Strike-Down any agent Cplan

p. 62

 FAA ignores & Delays external orders (note: impact to delay is in “A-to Threats Cplan)

p. 63-64

1

 A-to EPA Cplan

p. 65-66

 A-to Executive Order

p. 67

A-to Business-Related Cplans 

A-to “Cplan – Threaten the plan”



A-to Reg Neg Cplan

p. 68-70

o

2AC Frontline

p. 71-78

o

Backlines -- Ethanol Reg Negs Fail/Link to disad

p. 79-81

SDI Fifth Week -- 2008 --Avgas – Aff – Index continued—page two ***Note: A three page-long index*** A-to Consult Cplans 

A-to Consult Japan o

2AC Answers

p. 82-84

o

Toyota Powerful/Important to Japan’s Decision

p. 85

o

Keidanren key to Japan’s Decision

p. 86

o

Japan will side with Keidanren over the US

p. 87



A-to Consult EU

p. 88



A-to Consult NATO

p. 89



A-to Consult Russia

p. 90-93

Politics Section 



Agenda Disads – Plan Popular o

Plan Popular -- AOPA

p. 94

o

Plan Popular – Ethanol

p. 95

o

Plan Popular – Delegation

p. 96

o

Link Defense



Oil & Manufacturers w/n be angered by the plan

p. 97



GA downstream users w/n be angered by the plan

p. 98

Elections Disad – Plan Popular

2



o

Plan = Popular with the Public

p. 99

o

Plan = popular with Environmentalists

p. 100

Agenda Disads – Plan Unpopular o



Plan unpopular – AOPA 

2AC

p. 101



1AR – AOPA Opposes

p. 102



1AR – GA = key to the agenda

p. 103

o

Plan Unpopular – PAC’s

p. 104

o

Plan = Unpopular – Inhofe

p. 105

Link Items

o

President gets credit/blame for FAA Action

p. 106

o

Aff ersu selections -- No Link, Media will ignore plan

p. 107

A-to Economic-Related Disads

 A-to Aircraft Performance Disads

p. 108-109

 Specific A-to “Plan hurts General Aviation Economy – Engine Modification”

p. 110



A-to Oil Disads

p. 111-114



A-to Backstopping, Flood the US market with cheap avgas

p. 115

 A-to Business Confidence Disad

p. 116-117

 Specific A-to Bus Con -- A-to “Engine Manufacturers would backlash”

p. 118

 A-to Econ disad that says “Plan kills US General Aviation Sector”

p. 119

 A-to the Spending/Economy Disad

p. 120

A-to Ethanol Disad

 A-to Ethanol Bad Disad (b/c it Increases Fossil Fuel Consumption)

p. 121-22

 A-to “Plan causes increase in Corn-Based Ethanol”

p. 123

3

SDI Fifth Week -- 2008 --Avgas – Aff – Index continued—page three

Defending the Case

 Useful Info Cards





o

Distinction between General Aviation and Commercial Airlines

p. 124

o

Definition of General Aviation

p. 125

Inherency/Aff premise-style cards

o

Avgas consumption increasing

p. 126

o

Avgas Consumption Significant, despite Jet Fuel Distinction

p. 127

o

General Aviation growing now/Consumption Up

p. 128

o

Inherency – A-to “Ethanol = Certified Now”

p. 129

o

Certification = the barrier

p. 130

Defending the Agent (FAA)

o 





FAA Key/Certification Key

p. 131-133

o

A-to “Infrastructure Concerns make Fuel Transition Difficult”

p. 134

o

A-to “Ethanol Cannot compete”

p. 135

o

AGE-85 ready to replace Avgas now

p. 136-137

Solvency

Defending the China Advantage o

General Aviation = key to PRC regional economies

p. 138

o

A-to “China c/n produce enough ethanol for its GA sector”

p. 139

o

Uneven Chinese Growth = Internal Migration/HIV Transmission

p. 140

Defending the Montreal Protocol Advantage o

Ozone/immuno-deficiency Add-on

p. 141

o

A-to “Alt Cause Methyl Bromide”

p. 142

o

Avgas = Only Lead emitter in the USA

p. 143

o

US violations are key

p. 144

4



o

Maximum Compliance is key to Montreal Protocol

p. 145

o

Ozone impacts – Extinction

p. 146

o

Protocol Solves/small violations cause extinction

p. 147

o

A-to “Its all environmental Doomsdaying”

p. 148

o

Montreal Protocol Solves – will fix ozone hole now

p. 149

Defending the Agriculture Advantage o

Fuel Prices = key to High Food Prices

p. 150

o

Ag Aircrafts = Key

p. 151

o

A-to “Post-Plan, the market will transition to Diesel instead of Ethanol”

p. 152

o

US food prices key to global food prices & world econ

p. 153

o

US key to Global Food Production

p. 154

 Developed late and needs more work – but has some potential o

Health harms (lead)

p. 155

o

Global Warming Advantage (currently minus terminal impacts)

p. 156

o

Air Monitoring Advantage – Global Warming Impact Module

p. 157-8

5

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Inherency

Observation One -- Inherency

The FAA maintains a ban on ethanol use in general aviation US Fed News ‘8

(May 30th – lexis)

The Clean Air Act requires that cities with high levels of ozone pollution (non-attainment areas) use reformulated gasoline because it is 15 to 17 percent less polluting than conventional gasoline. With the approach of summer, marinas in Region 3 are required to use reformulated gasoline, and to follow the special precautions in its use. Airfields

are being reminded that since the Federal Aviation Administration has not yet cleared ethanol-containing blends for use in aircraft, they must use conventional, non-ethanol-based gasoline at this time. Information on the use of reformulated gasoline can be found at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/rfg.htm.

6

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Plan Options Plan Option # 1: The Federal Aviation Administration should fully legalize the use of ethanol (for commercial purposes) in general aviation. More specifically, the Federal Aviation Administration certification and permitting process should clarify that general aviation engine equipment and general aviation airframes are now fully eligible to operate on so-called “new aviation fuels”, interpreting that phrase to be inclusive of ethanol-blended aviation gasoline and denatured ethanol.

Plan Option # 2

(If you want to be able to permute extreme Lopez-style Cplans):

The Federal Aviation Administration should end its opposition to certifying ethanol as a fuel eligible for use in general aviation engine & airframes equipment.

Plan Option # 3

(if you want to avoid a PIC about one of the ethanol fuels)

The Federal Aviation Administration should legalize the use of ethanol-blended fuels (for commercial purposes) in general aviation. More specifically, the Federal Aviation Administration certification and permitting process should clarify that general aviation engine equipment and general aviation airframes are now eligible to operate on so-called “new aviation fuels”, interpreting that phrase to be inclusive of ethanol-blended aviation gasoline.

Plan Option # 4

(if you want to only run the Air Monitoring and China Advantages, but with a smaller plan)

The Federal Aviation Administration will fully certify Cessna 172s that are equipped with advanced, miniaturized air pollution monitoring equipment to use ethanol and ETBE.

7

Avgas Aff – 1AC -- Solvency Observation Two -- Solvency Lifting Certification obstacles levels the playing field. Once it’s leveled, ethanol will functionally eliminate avgas – it’s cheaper and better for the environment. Zanin ‘7

(Grazia Zanin is the Director of Research at the Baylor Institute for Air Science. She holds degrees in Earth Sciences and Environmental Sciences. She has been working in the areas research and development of renewable aviation fuels for the last 20 years. She was a pilot on the first transatlantic flight on ethanol fuel. -- I.M.E.S., The Baylor Institute of Air Science, Baylor University -- The Green Airport Concept and the International Flight Academy on Biofuels – December -- https://beardocs.baylor.edu/bitstream/2104/5133/1/Grazia_Zanin_Masters.pdf)

Seeing as there are no insurmountable technical obstacles and aviation is in urgent need of a clean alternative fuel, one may ask: “What has prevented this from happening?” Over the last three decades, the Renewable Aviation Fuels Development Center (RAFDC) and the Baylor Institute for Air Science (BIAS) at Baylor University have led the world in advancing biofuels in aviation. Much progress and development has occurred since the inception of the programs, but much more is needed. During these years, the author and BIAS colleagues have attempted numerous strategies to find the right formula to spark the interest of the aviation community in alternative fuels and the adoption of sustainable practices. The “Green Airport” and the implementation of the Green Airport International Flight Academy (GAIFA) in the Dominican Republic (DR) represent the latest effort to provide a simple model that can demonstrate the feasibility and the advantages of biofuels and renewable energy in aviation; a model that can eventually be reproduced anywhere in the world. The research, development and testing performed at the RAFDC/BIAS have proven the feasibility and the environmental compatibility of biofuels in aviation for both the piston and the turbine engine aviation fleets. Biofuels are the most rapidly growing transportation fuels in the world and their adoption makes great sense in general aviation. Blends of Biodiesel up to 20% have been tested in flight in turbine engines since the late 1990’s. The first flight on 100% Biodiesel took place (October 2007) in Nevada in a L-29 military jet aircraft. The aircraft is currently being prepared to make a first cross country flight from Nevada to Florida on 100% Biodiesel. Other types of biofuels are being tested for the turbine engine fleet that would satisfy the chemical and physical characteristics required by the commercial and military jet fuel specifications. Worldwide crop availability and production costs, in addition to technical suitability, will be considered to assess the viability of these new biofuels. Ethanol and other biofuels are truly the transition fuels for spark and compression ignition engines. Ethanol can be produced locally from renewable resources. It augments starch and sugar feedstocks, including waste streams, with cellulosic biomass. Ethanol is the best currently available candidate fuel to replace Avgas for the following reasons: 1. Ethanol is now considerably cheaper than 100 octane low-lead aviation gasoline 2. Ethanol can be produced locally from renewable resources 3. Ethanol is a superior aviation fuel for piston engines possessing higher detonation resistance and other technical advantages over aviation gasoline 4. There is considerable market potential for ethanol in aviation in the US and the world 5. EPA is seeking ways to phase out lead in Avgas 6. The threat of climate change is altering the interrelationships between national energy security, economics and environment. Transitioning from fossil to biofuels in aviation scores on all these issues embracing the concept of advanced cleaner technologies to handle climate change issues. Rigorous certification procedures for engines and aircraft, administered by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), were successfully completed utilizing 100% denatured ethanol. One aircraft series certified on ethanol is the Cessna 152, the most popular training aircraft in the world. This aircraft type has been chosen to form the first fleet of training aircraft at the GAIFA in the DR. The motivation to implement this program has been provided by the urgency to demonstrate the feasibility of biofuels on a noticeably large scale commercial operation where the economic benefits and the technical advantages of biofuels will be tangible and irrefutable. The DR was chosen as the site of the first Green Airport due its ideal conditions that include: • Abundant biomass and renewable energy resources • Developed tourism and aviation infrastructures • Opportunity to benefit the environmental, social, economic and political circumstances of both countries, the DR and Haiti, by the establishment of a biofuel and renewable energy industry • Easy access for tourists from North, Central, South America and Europe through regularly scheduled flights The use of ethanol at the GAIFA will provide several benefits • Savings in fuel costs and maintenance of aircraft • Cleaner emissions • Reduction of CO2 emitted in the atmosphere • Increase in engine power developed—with a slight reduction in range as the only drawback The GAIFA will support the objectives of a national strategic energy program to gradually meet energy demands by adopting sustainable energy practices. It will promote: • Improved economic conditions and quality of life in the countryside where the crops are planted and the fuel produced • Creation of new jobs at the airport and through secondary services • Educational and demonstration programs, both at the local, regional and global level • Implementation of renewable energy systems and improved environmental practices • Opportunities to utilize aviation to expand the eco-tourism concept and activities • Sustainable agricultural practices and education in this field supported by agricultural spray aircraft powered by biofuels • On going research, certification and further implementation of biofuels in aviation, ground equipment and ground transportation • The implementation of a business model that will promote equitable and sustainable development through opportunities for agricultural growth and incentives that would establish enterprises in rural areas (such as biofuel production) resulting in the development of social infrastructures in the countryside The scope of the GAIFA in the DR is to demonstrate the reliability of highperformance, clean burning, renewable fuels for aircraft engines by training pilots and scientist/pilots with aircraft powered by biofuels. Educational programs and renewable energy systems will be gradually integrated and added to provide further learning opportunities and demonstration programs in a highly cost effective and sustainable manner. The end result, the Green Airport and the Renewable Energy Theme Park, will be showcased locally, regionally and internationally to provide a unique educational experience and a model to be replicated regionally and eventually worldwide. The threat to the environment, as a result of fossil fuel use, coupled with the threat to national security as a result of the nations’ increasing energy dependence, can no longer be ignored. The potential of biofuels to benefit energy and national security, to improve the quality of the environment, and to provide quality jobs and sustainability to local communities alleviating emigration to the cities or to other countries is enormous. We have only begun to realize the benefits that could accrue from the adoption of renewable, clean-burning, domestically produced aviation fuels.

Recommendations Before embarking on the implementation of this project it

is vital to objectively review the lessons learned and the roadblocks encountered in nearly three decades of intensive work in this field. Following are a few recommendations to consider in the implementation of this new concept: 1. Sufficient resources In order to implement effective programs adequate resources are critical. The accomplishments and successes of past programs were results of enormous expenditure of personal time and physical effort coupled with unlimited enthusiasm and dedication. Limited human and financial resources can only result in limited outcomes. Adequate resources are essential to promote the implementation of biofuels in aviation on a significant scale. Resources are needed to: a. Promote educational programs. Lack of information on biofuels and renewable energy resources among the general public is a major obstacle to implementation. The misinformation disseminated by those interested in keeping the world captive to fossil fuels is preventing the general public from learning basic information about the technical economical and environmental

Proceed with certification programs. Certification of engines and airframe on biofuels can be carried forward on a continuing basis while implementation and pilot projects are spreading. c. Further research into improving the efficiency of engines. This research can also be pursued in parallel benefits derived from biofuels. Education about biofuels would bring about a major change in the attitude of the consumers. b.

to educational and certification activities. Emission testing of aviation engines is critical; new aviation fuels will have to be clean, renewable, and domestically produced. d. Implement an adequate large-scale, high visibility project. Sufficient initial resources are critical to implement a program on a scale adequate to maximize its visibility and its potential to showcase technologies and educate a large audience in order to make a substantial impact.

8

The main problem in the past has been sporadic support to advance biofuels and sustainability in aviation due to changing administrations and shifts in priorities of federal agencies and organizations. A concerted effort could considerably support and expedite the implementation phase of biofuels in aviation. Commitment to implement biofuel programs is critical from: a. State and federal agencies, governmental and non –governmental national and international 2. Concerted effort and commitment

organizations. These organizations should have a high interest and consequently a more active role in supporting the establishment of decentralized biofuel industries, especially those being proposed in developing countries. Solid commitments from these agencies, brought together in a coordinated manner to implement an effective biofuel program, would expedite the adoption of biofuels in aviation providing opportunities to establish biofuel distribution networks that would benefit the economy and the environment b. National agricultural agencies, organizations and private agri-business sector. The benefits that would accrue to the farming community if biofuels were to be widely adopted are obvious. Coordination among national and state agricultural advantageous for the creation of decentralized production facilities, refueling infrastructures and distribution systems for biofuels including airports. Improvement of life quality in rural communities worldwide would alleviate the problem of immigration to the cities or to other countries while contributing to improve energy and national securities. c. Biofuel producers, distributors and related industries. The ethanol industry, now in a strong position, has until recently been mostly concerned with its own survival and has been, at best, inconsistent in its commercialization strategies and plans for the future. Some might perceive ethanol as an aviation fuel as an exotic idea. Consistent support, commitment and trust from the industry are critical to move the implementation of this program forward. Logistical problems can be easily resolved with the support of the existing industry, especially with greater fuel availability worldwide. 3.

Inherent in the nature of aviation is an understandably high degree of safety awareness and risk aversion. This has been the cause of often extremely conservative attitudes in the commercial aviation industry, particularly when it comes to adopting new technologies. Obviously, an element of risk is always introduced in the testing phase of a new technology in aviation, particularly a new fuel. However, the risk phase of ethanol development has long since ended. Ethanol has been subjected to intense scrutiny by the FAA, aviation industry, and, in particular, the petroleum industry, mainly because it is a new fuel competing with a well established one. The same is true for bio-based fuels for the turbine engine fleet. Although more research and testing needs to be conducted Overcome aviation industry conservatism and power of the petroleum industry

in order to identify the best feedstocks and technologies to produce cleaner and economically efficient fuels, the degree of risk is minuscule, especially when compared to the impending threat of

A de facto alliance between many sectors of the aviation industry, federal agencies, politicians and the petroleum industry has taken place over time. has led to a situation and power structure that favors the use of established technologies that would otherwise not be able to compete in the current circumstances. More specifically, if aviation gasoline and ethanol were both new fuels, given no preference on either side due to power alliances, political and commercial contributions and the myriad of other entanglements, there would be no contest between the two fuels; ethanol would easily prevail. Ethanol outperforms aviation gasoline, is more economical, far better for the environment, especially if produced in a sustainable manner, and is renewable and domestically produced. a global climate change.

While this is to be expected, given the requirements of close cooperation between these groups, it

9

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Solvency cont’

Transition would be simply – economics favor the move, and there’s already excess ethanol waiting to be consumed.

Alvarez ‘5

(Sergio Alvarez, The Baylor Institute of Air Science, Baylor University -- FROM CONCEPT TO REALITY: A SMALL AIR QUALITY SAMPLING AIRCRAFT POWERED BY ETHANOL -http://www3.baylor.edu/bias/publications/FromConcepttoRealit.pdf)

The fuel: The current bulk cost of ethanol in the U. S. is approximately $1.00 per gallon while the bulk cost of Avgas is approximately $1.80 per gallon. While these figures vary widely throughout the country, ethanol is substantially less expensive than Avgas. Even factoring in the lower energy density of ethanol when compared with Avgas, the economics are still in favor of ethanol. Extensive testing has shown that in the worst-case scenario of range loss, occurring in low compression engines, 20% more ethanol is required when compared with Avgas. Thus with a 42% decrease in the cost of fuel, combined with a 20% loss of range there is still approximately a 20% decrease in the cost per mile when using ethanol rather than Avgas. Engineers involved in the certification testing of ethanol have estimated conservatively that the time between overhaul could easily double, providing another substantial decrease in operating costs for ethanol powered aircraft. Additional savings in the cost of operation of ethanol powered aircraft will be realized when the use of technologies to produce ethanol from cellulose results in a further decrease in the cost of ethanol. In the U.S. the current production of ethanol is approximately 6 times the consumption of Avgas. Thus, there is no concern about adequate supply for aviation. On the other hand, this is a high visibility market that represents a substantial percentage of the entire ethanol production and, as such, should be very attractive to the ethanol industry.

10

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Solvency cont’ Certification is the key incentive – it empirically provides a direct boost to alternative energy in the aviation sector. Zanin ‘7

(Grazia Zanin is the Director of Research at the Baylor Institute for Air Science. She holds degrees in Earth Sciences and Environmental Sciences. She has been working in the areas research and development of renewable aviation fuels for the last 20 years. She was a pilot on the first transatlantic flight on ethanol fuel. -I.M.E.S., The Baylor Institute of Air Science, Baylor University -- The Green Airport Concept and the International Flight Academy on Biofuels – December -https://beardocs.baylor.edu/bitstream/2104/5133/1/Grazia_Zanin_Masters.pdf)

Ethanol, or ethyl alcohol, is a renewable fuel produced from feedstocks containing starch or sugar. In the United States, ethanol is made mainly from corn and other types of grain or, in smaller quantities, from waste products. In South America ethanol is made from sugar cane, while in Europe it is produced mainly from sugar beets and from agricultural surpluses. Ethanol can also be made from cellulosic biomass and various types of waste products (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2007). The current production of ethanol in the U.S. is approximately 6 billion gallons a year (Renewable Fuels Association, 2007). Most of this ethanol is used as an octane enhancer, blended with gasoline at 10% and, to a lesser extent, in an 85% blend available at selected locations all around the country. Ethanol used as an oxygenate improves combustion reducing CO emissions and also some of the emissions which contribute to ozone formation. While providing octane, ethanol reduces or replaces other environmentally harmful components in gasoline such as benzene, toluene, and xylene— since ethanol does not contain aromatics. These substances are known human carcinogens. The fuel currently used in the research and development program at Baylor University is 200 proof denatured ethanol. Modifications of engines and airframes to utilize ethanol have undergone continuous improvement and have proven successful and reliable in engine certification tests designed and monitored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Throughout the course of the research, development, flight testing,

ethanol has proven to be a high performance, and economically competitive replacement for 100 octane aviation gasoline. Several aircraft modified by Dr. Shauck to run on pure ethanol have logged over 6,000 hours of flight time during and certification,

testing, cross country flights and demonstrations (World Biofuels Symposium - China, 2006). To prove the reliability of ethanol as a fuel for aviation, a number of long distance flights resulting in National Aeronautic Association records were completed (National Aeronautic Association, 2007). Ethanol powered aircraft have flown aerobatic demonstrations at major shows in the United States, Brazil, Australia, Italy and France.

Certification is necessary for an aircraft to engage in commercial operations. Dr. Shauck and the author received the first non-petroleum certification for an aircraft/engine combination from the FAA (Shauck & Zanin, 1991). Two series of aircraft engines and two airframes have received FAA supplemental type certificates (STC). These engines and airframes were carefully selected in order to rapidly spread the use of ethanol in the general aviation market. Two areas of aviations were initially identified by Dr. Shauck and this author: the flight training market and the agricultural flying market. In both cases the activities depend almost entirely on centralized fueling facilities thereby avoiding an initial distribution problem.

The aviation gasoline market represents an ideal niche for pure ethanol fuel (called E95 since it contains up to 5% denaturant). At today’s prices, ethanol ($ 2.00- 2.50 per gallon) is already economically competitive with Avgas ($ 4.00 – 5.00 per gallon). In the future, the economic advantage of ethanol over Avgas can only increase: the price of ethanol is more likely to decrease as new production technologies develop and feedstock bases are expanding, while the price of Avgas can only increase in the future. The size of the Avgas market is ideal when related to the current production of ethanol in this country, particularly considering the significant expansion of the ethanol industry that guarantees the availability of ethanol for this market. Beside its economic advantage and superior performance, the adoption of ethanol as an aviation fuel will have many positive impacts in creating rural employment, increasing use of agricultural crops or woody biomass crops, reducing dependence on imported, non-renewable petroleum products, reducing emissions from internal combustion engines, and reducing federal crop subsidies. Ethanol is a high octane fuel which does not require any additives to perform in existing aircraft engines. It has been proven superior to aviation gasoline in almost every aspect of performance. Ethanol produces more power, extends engine life and has a lower cost per mile. The only drawback is a reduction in range. Given the current dependence from imported petroleum, the increasing cost of fuel and the fact that lead must be removed from aviation gasoline, the arguments in favor of ethanol are very strong. Certification of the First Training Aircraft on Ethanol Fuel

In order to be used in commercial operations aircraft must be certified by the FAA. In order to certify a new fuel, both engine and airframe must satisfy FAA requirements.

11

Avgas Aff – 1AC – China Advantage Advantage # ___

China

The limited availability of avgas hampers balanced economic growth within China – it specifically jacks growth in the underdeveloped Northeast. Flight International ‘4

(October 26, 2004 -http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2004/10/26/189325/taking-flight.html)

"General aviation in China can act like commercial aviation in China to contribute its value to the fastgrowing economy," says Cao. But regulatory changes alone will not be enough to unlock the huge potential of the Chinese market. Other barriers to GA growth -- including high user fees, limited airport access, inadequate supply of fuel and lack of aviation charts -- also must be overcome.To address the charts problem, the CAAC last year enlisted the help of the US Federal Aviation Administration to begin creating the visual flight rules (VFR) charts that are required for GA to spread across China. The joint charting programme began in December 2003 and is expected to result in the drafting of 30 to 40 sectional charts by the end of 2008. The first chart, covering north-east China, is now being prepared.

"North-east China needs more economic development and GA should help the economy develop there," says the FAA's chief representative in Beijing, Joe Tymczyszyn. He points out the CAAC is paying the FAA "to make this VFR charting work" and this demonstrates the Chinese government's commitment to developing general aviation.Tymczyszyn says the FAA is also meeting this year to discuss flight standards and is helping the CAAC to develop regulatory oversight of general aviation. The idea is for the CAAC to learn from the FAA's system of field offices, inspectors, aircraft certification and pilot licensing. In February FAA administrator Marion Blakey visited Beijing and identified eight areas of future co-operation -- including flight standards, air traffic control, aircraft certification and airports -- that will help the CAAC create a system similar to the FAA and the International Civil Aviation Organisation.In April a group of CAAC officials visited Washington DC to examine some of the GA services provided by the FAA. As well as visiting several FAA offices, they toured a number of GA airports and met leaders of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, General Aviation Manufacturers Association and National Business Aviation Association."For general aviation to get started, they need more than just charts," Tymczyszyn told the forum. "But the people at CAAC didn't know what else was needed. I am very enthusiastic about general aviation growing in China."Development of GA airports will require a major effort because there are a mere 40 GA-only facilities in China. Operators at these airports have unrestricted access to only a small chunk of airspace, typically about 10km (5nm) in diameter, and need special permission to fly outside this zone. Access to the airspace needed to fly to another GA airport is difficult, and sometimes impossible, to secure. For example, in Beijing and Shanghai there are small GA airports with sightseeing and flying club operations, but typically they are surrounded by prohibited chunks of airspace, which makes it impossible to leave the area. Unrestricted flying Operators say China's air force is looking at opening up the airspace to permit unrestricted GA flying in most airspace up to 6,000ft (1,830m). The military now controls all China's airspace and historically has been reluctant to cede control. The lack of low-altitude radar outside major population areas means it cannot always keep track of GA aircraft. Automatic dependent surveillance -broadcast (ADS-B) is being marketed as a potential low-cost solution to provide radar-like coverage in rural areas. The military must also decide on GPS navigation availability for civilian operators and generally needs to approve all proposed reforms to the current system to enable the CAAC to make GA procedures simpler. "The Chinese military needs to make some decisions," says Tymczyszyn. Wang Xia of the China GA Research Centre says: "Airspace restrictions really slow general aviation growth down. We have a chicken-and-egg issue with airspace. There is no airspace, so general aviation is not ready to open." The China GA Research Centre -- a subsidiary of the China Civil Aviation Academy -- also forecasts a market of 10,000 general aviation aircraft by 2020, but Wang warns: "The policy and regulations are not yet ready for GA to move forward."

Operators also complain that the low availability of 100-octane low-lead (100LL) avgas is hampering potential growth, especially in rural areas, where the complete lack of fuel supply means GA aircraft cannot access large areas of the country. Manufacturers say this is restricting sales of piston-powered aircraft because prospective buyers would be able to operate such aircraft only in major cities. Fuel production Chinese oil companies say they are prepared to support the development of GA and hope eventually to produce fuel for piston aircraft, although there is not enough demand for them to justify such production.

There is only one refinery in China producing jet fuel and 100 low-lead has to be imported.

"This is a chicken-and-egg question," says China Aviation Oil Supply deputy director Zhang Lianxi. "We don't have general aviation in China, so we don't have supply. General aviation in China is not there yet, but it's not something we can't overcome."

Government officials say China is concerned that solutions to supply 100LL avgas at a reasonable cost.

fuel issues could restrict GA growth and is working on possible

Avgas Aff – 1AC – China Advantage cont’ 12

The growth of General Aviation is important for rural economic growth in China. The Economist ’4

(December 4, 2004 – lexis)

That is changing as China's leaders begin to see general aviation as a way to unlock the potential of the country's vast interior. When Beijing hosts the 2008 Olympics, hundreds of guests are expected to fly in on their private planes and dock at the airport's new VIP terminal. By then it is scheduled to have the world's largest facility for servicing private planes.

Far inland, new airports have been commissioned in Gansu, Qinghai, Sichuan and Xinjiang. And in the south-western province of Yunnan a cluster of ten airstrips are intended to open up the region to tourism. Although all Chinese pilots today are graduates of just one flying school, four more schools are being set up. Most importantly, some 40 flying clubs have been founded around the country in an effort to foster the spirit and enthusiasm that general aviation generates in America.

China’s Overall Economy and its Urban Economy are surging now – but lagging rural growth is creating tension. The Standard ’5

(The Standard: China’s Business Paper – March 5th -http://www.thestandard.com.hk/stdn/std/China/GC05Ad01.html)

China's per-capita disposable incomes in towns and cities rose 7.7 percent last year to 9,422 yuan (HK$8,881), outpacing a 6.8 percent increase in rural incomes to 2,936 yuan. The

gap between urban and rural incomes has widened to 3.2 times, from 1.9 times in 1978 when the country began its transition to a market economy, according to Xinhua. The congress will consider proposals to encourage plantings and raise spending on irrigation and farm equipment, the China National Grains and Oils Information Center said in a March 3 report. The government will scrap taxes on livestock breeding and eliminate agricultural levies in 592 of the nation's poorest counties, Finance Minister Jin Renqing said Thursday.

China saw almost a dozen mass protests in the last three months of 2003, fueled by increasing inequality, allegations of government corruption and police abuses, The New York Times reported on December 31. Almost 60,000 public protests occurred in 2003, up almost 15 percent from 2002 and eight times the number in 1994, the Times reported, citing police statistics. ``I'm concerned and would focus more on policies to dispel the income disparity in different Chinese regions,'' Prudential Asset Management (Hong Kong) investment manager David Cheung said. ``The government may consider reallocating tax privileges granted to different regions to alleviate poverty.'' Wen vowed to step up a crackdown on corruption in a February 27 speech, Xinhua reported, the latest in a series of state media reports on the subject in the run-up to the congress attended by 3,000 delegates from across China. The government last year told banks to restrict loans to industries such as steel and real estate to help ease transport bottlenecks and damp inflation.

Economic growth accelerated to an eight-year high of 9.5 percent last year, more than the premier's target of 7 percent. Still, consumer prices rose 1.9 percent from a year earlier in January, the slowest pace in more than a year, while fixed-asset investment growth eased to 21 percent in December from 43 percent in the first quarter.

Avgas Aff – 1AC – China Advantage cont’ Uneven Chinese growth causes implosion – Beijing won’t be able to peacefully resolve this.

13

Bi ’03

(Bi Jianhi has recently completed his doctorate at the University of Canterbury's Department of Political Science. New Zealand International Review March 1, 2003)

Unparalleled challenges

The new Chinese leadership faces unparalleled challenges, mainly on the domestic front. China has faced pressing economic problems--a slowdown in economic growth, banks' non-performing loans, loss-making state enterprises, and growing unemployment. How to resolve these thorny problems will be a severe test for these technocrats. A central lesson that they have drawn from the fall of Soviet communism is that the Communist Party's legitimacy could be called into question by economic failure. In order to maintain the survival of the regime, they have to sustain the nation's rapid economic development and deliver prosperity to the Chinese people. Thereby they will follow Jiang's line on economic reform and opening-up to build an advanced market economy. Their top priority will be the economy rather than political liberation in the next few years. However, it is questionable whether they will be able to overcome the structural shortcomings that underlie China's weakening and unsatisfactory political performance and the serious social problems that prevail while maintaining economic development. Jiang's statecraft was to blend communism in politics and capitalism in the economy. With two different hands, economic liberalisation and political stability could be reconciled, keeping the Communist Party in power. Nevertheless, Jiang only suppressed rather than solved problems and even accumulated more. For the new leaders, this model will probably no longer work in the long term. All problems find their roots in political dysfunction, resulting in mounting pressure on the new leaders to reform the political system. Extremely serious corruption has shaken the foundations of the communist regime. The old anti-corruption way no longer works because of the lack of political checks on power.

The rich-

poor gap between eastern and western China, urban and rural areas, is widening. Without political reconstruction, the rich-poor gap will deepen, leading to greater social instability. Continued repression of sharply rising protests will be impossible because of problematic communist legitimacy and the weakened tools of coercion. The new leaders need innovative approaches, in particular democratic means, to calm down more frequent and intensive demonstrations. Under the poorly functioning legal system, environmental pollution has been exacerbated and public order has weakened, bringing rising crime. Overcoming these problems demands the rule of law and a clear and accountable government. Under such circumstances, the new leaders have no choice but political reform. Hu promised that he would pursue political reform, whilst Zeng considered adopting some measures to reform politics and administration. (2) However, this presents the gravest challenge for them--how to modernise and democratise the polity while keeping the Party in control of the country? There are indications that Jiang's hard line on politics is less likely to succeed in the future, but real political liberation will probably not proceed until the 17th Party Congress in 2007, when the new leadership is consolidated and Jiang really leaves the power centre. In particular, the fourth leadership generation faces more perplexing and serious problems but is likely to be less popular and authoritative than the third generation. The domestic political circumstances have become more complicated, with increasing destabilising factors. It is very difficult to predict whether the fourth generation of leadership will have the ability and resources to resolve the thorny and mountainous problems facing the country, especially in controlling a potentially unstable political situation.

If the Chinese leaders do not adopt appropriate and effective measures to deal with the potentially exacerbated social and economic problems and a deepening crisis of governance, the communists will lose their power and the country could even collapse. It appears that some scholars have made such sensational predictions just to raise alarm. However, their predictions could come true if the new Chinese leaders drag their feet on instituting necessary reforms, mainly in the political arena.

14

Avgas Aff – 1AC – China Advantage cont’ Both scenarios escalate to nuclear wars involving India, the US, Britain, and China. Given population counts, this is the greatest security risk on Earth. Klintworth ’94

(Gary – former Senior Researcher at the Northeast Asia Project – Australian Journal of International Affairs – November – page 219 – not obtained electronically)

15

Avgas Aff – 1AC – China Advantage cont’ Post-plan – China will change from avgas to ethanol for two reasons: First – plan gets modeled globally. Our warrants are uniquely true in rural China. Shauck ’98

(et al -- Max – Renewable Aviation Fuel Development Center – Dept of Aviation Sciences @ Baylor – Transitioning to Biomass Fuels in General Aviation -http://www3.baylor.edu/bias/publications/transitiontobiomass.pdf)

The demise of lead in the aviation gasoline in the United States will have a ripple effect in the rest of the world as well. General aviation in every country will be forced to find an alternative fuel for its piston engine fleet. Ethanol will undoubtedly be considered as a prime candidate to replace aviation gasoline because of its availability, ease of production, environmental friendliness, technical characteristics and cost effectiveness with the most important benefit being that it can be produced domestically anywhere in the world -- freeing general aviation from the threat of supply interruptions and unwarranted price climbs.

Second -- China will specifically model US General Aviation policies – the FAA’s exchange program confirms. Flight International ’4

(October 26, 2004)

The Chinese government formed an expert committee in 2000 to discuss the opening of the GA market, involving several high-ranking officials including Meng. Committee member Cao Jing Nan says it is working with the government and operators to make sure proper regulations are introduced and enforced. The committee has also asked air traffic control authorities to develop a strategic policy for GA. "General aviation in China can act like commercial aviation in China to contribute its value to the fast-growing economy," says Cao. But regulatory changes alone will not be enough to unlock the huge potential of the Chinese market. Other

barriers to GA growth -- including high user fees, limited airport access, inadequate supply of fuel and lack of aviation charts -- also must be overcome. To address the charts problem, the CAAC last year enlisted the help of the US Federal Aviation Administration to begin creating the visual flight rules (VFR) charts that are required for GA to spread across China. The joint charting programme began in December 2003 and is expected to result in the drafting of 30 to 40 sectional charts by the end of 2008. The first chart, covering north-east China, is now being prepared. "North-east

China needs more economic development and GA should

help the economy develop there," says the FAA's chief representative in Beijing, Joe Tymczyszyn. He points out the CAAC is paying the FAA "to make this VFR charting work" and this demonstrates the Chinese government's commitment to developing general aviation. Tymczyszyn says the FAA is also meeting this year to discuss flight standards and is helping the CAAC to develop regulatory oversight of general aviation. The idea is for the CAAC to learn from the FAA's system of field offices, inspectors, aircraft certification and pilot licensing. In February FAA administrator Marion Blakey visited Beijing and identified eight areas of future co-operation -- including flight standards, air traffic control, aircraft certification and airports -- that will help the CAAC create a system similar to the FAA and the International Civil Aviation Organisation. In April a group of CAAC officials visited Washington DC to examine some of the GA services provided by the FAA. As well as visiting several FAA offices, they toured a number of GA airports and met leaders of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, General Aviation Manufacturers Association and National Business Aviation Association. "For general aviation to get started, they need more than just charts," Tymczyszyn told the forum. "But the people at CAAC didn't know what else was needed. I am very enthusiastic about general aviation growing in China." (Note: CAAC = The Civil Aviation Administration of China)

16

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Montreal Protocol Advantage

Advantage # ___

Montreal Protocol Compliance

The Montreal Protocol is successful, but violations by the US can cause it to unravel. Houder ’03

(VANESSA HOULDER – London-Based enviro correspondent for FT – Financial Times – November 18th)

David Doniger of the Natural Resources Defense Council, a US environment group, says this kind of special pleading marks "the biggest backwards step of the Montreal Protocol". He fears Washington's

position could undermine developing countries' willingness to phase out ozone-depleting chemicals. At worst, it could cause the protocol to unravel. A recent analysis of more than 300 environmental treaties by Scott Barrett, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, found the protocol was the "great exception" to the rule that such agreements fail to alter how states behave. Its success lies in its skilful manipulation of incentives, stimulating co-operation between states that generally care only about their own interests.

Its reputation was reinforced recently when scientists reported a slowing in the rate of destruction of ozone. The subsequent discovery of an unusually large ozone hole this September - explained by exceptional weather - did not detract from these findings. Most researchers expect recovery to start in a decade. That would be a remarkable victory for the protocol's original negotiators who worked hard to overcome doubts about its scientific basis, technical solutions and costs.

US non-compliance exemptions threaten to unravel the whole Protocol by discouraging compliance of developing nations. ECES ’3

(Earth Crash Earth Spirit – an environmental thinktank website -- July 20th -http://eces.org/articles/000135.php)

The U.S. demands will go to an international conference in Nairobi in the fall. Experts fear that if

the U.S. demands are approved, the treaty will begin to fall apart, not least because developing countries - which are following the rich nations in phasing out ozone-depleting chemicals - could cease their efforts. "The U.S. is reneging on the agreement, and working very, very hard to get other countries to agree," said David Doniger, a former senior US government official dealing with ozone issues, who now works for the Natural Resources Defense Council. "If it succeeds, it threatens to unravel the whole fabric of the treaty."

17

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Montreal Protocol Advantage cont’ The next two years are key – that marks the end of the developing nations’ compliance period Khastagir ‘6

(Anup Khastagir, Climate Change Media Partnership and Senior Reporter for Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha News -- The New Nation, Jan 11th – available via: http://www.cirdap.org/product.asp?pid=189)

The area of the ozone hole varied between 20 and 29 million sq. km in the early 1990s. The hole-area was 29 million sq. km in September 2000, 27 million sq. km in September 2003, and 24 million sq. km in 2004. The highest depletion was found over the North Pole up to 30 % while the depletion over Europe and other high latitudes varied between 5% and 30%. Without

Montreal Protocol, the ozone depletion would have risen to at least 50 % in the northern hemisphere's mid latitude and 70% in the southern mid latitude, about 10 times worse than the current level. 2010 is the most crucial time for protection of the ozone layer as, according to Montreal Protocol the Article-5 countries (Developing countries which have ratified the protocol and level of consumption is less than 0.3kg per capita) have to phase out all consumption and production of the major ozone depleting substances (ODSs), except those for essential uses.

18

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Montreal Protocol Advantage cont’ Except for avgas, Lead has been phased-out. This leaves the US in violation of the Montreal Protocol. Ethanol is the alternative Shauck & Zanin ’98

(M. Schauck & M.G. Zanin – Baylor Institute for Air Science – Implementation of Alternative Bio-Based Fuels in Aviation: The Clean Airports Program – October -http://www3.baylor.edu/bias/publications/cleanairportsprogram.pdf)

The phase-out of tetraethyl lead from motor fuel in the U.S., as mandated by the Clean Air Act, is a cause of great concern to the aviation industry. The industry

Since the phase out of lead from the rest of the motor fuel, Avgas is the only remaining leaded fuel in the United States. Although a temporary informal waiver has been granted by the standard is a 100 octane, leaded fuel known as 100 LL (low lead).

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to general aviation, EPA and the California Air Resources Board have considered regulating the use of this fuel in order to eliminate hazardous air pollutants. The Federal Aviation Administration, aircraft manufacturers, engine manufacturers, professional aviation organization and the oil industry are attempting to develop

Following are some of the economic and regulatory reasons urging the development of an unleaded aviation fuel: an alternative to the leaded aviation gasoline (AVGAS) used in today’s piston engine aircraft

. To avoid lead contamination, fuel suppliers are not able to transport leaded fuels in either pipelines or tankers used to carry unleaded fuels. . In the future, used oil from engines using leaded gas will likely be classified as toxic waste. . The

Montreal Protocol requires elimination of all use of ethyl-di-bromide by 1998. This lead scavenger is necessary in any engine using lead additives. . According to the most cunent public information, existing alternate octane boosters cannot achieve the standard 100 octane. A substandard octane fuel, now under consideration, could not be used in certain aircraft engines which consume almost 1/2 of the fuel used today. . Increased use of alkylates in the new reformulated gasolines for automobiles will cause the price to increase and could result in supply shortages for their use in Avgas production. . Piston aviation engines emissions are not yet regulated Volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides are being investigated by the EPA. Many attempts have been made to develop an acceptable gasoline-based replacement fuel. Difficulties in producing such a fuel that satisfies both technical and economic guidelines are due to the high octane requirements, high costs of its constituents and environmental considerations.

A program at the Renewable Aviation Fuels Development Center (RAFDC) at Baylor University has proven, in the course of seventeen years of research arid development, that 100%

denatured ethanol has all the desired technical characteristics to replace 100 LL Avgas (Shauck and Zanin, 1992). Ethanol is a high octane alternative fuel that can be easily adopted for use in small aircraft. Engines can be modified to use ethanol with relatively minor adjustments. Not only are there numerous performance advantages with ethanol, including smoother operation, increased power, and superior resistance to knocking, but it also enjoys a relative cost advantage compared to Avgas. In addition, since ethanol burns cleaner than petroleum-based fuels, there are also significant environmental benefits.

19

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Montreal Protocol Advantage cont’ All of the alt cause arguments are wrong – human-produced substances are responsible for ozone depletion. WMO ’98

(World Meterological Organization/National Oceanic and Atoms Admin Scientific Panel – Assessment of Ozone Depletion, Report # 44 -http://www.al.noaa.gov/WWWHD/pubdocs/assessment98/ExecSum98.pdf)

Most of the chlorine in the stratosphere is there as a result of human activities, as the figure below illustrates. Many compounds containing chlorine are released at the ground. Those that dissolve in water cannot reach stratospheric altitudes in significant amounts because they are “washed out” of the atmosphere in rain or snow. For example, large

quantities of

chlorine are released from evaporated ocean spray as sea salt (sodium chloride) particles. However, because sea salt dissolves in water, this chlorine is taken up quickly in clouds or in ice, snow, or rain droplets and does not reach the stratosphere. Another ground-level source of chlorine is from its use in swimming pools and as household bleach. When released, this chlorine is rapidly converted to forms that dissolve in water and therefore are removed from the lower atmosphere. Such chlorine never reaches the stratosphere in significant amounts. Volcanoes

can emit large quantities of hydrogen chloride, but this gas is rapidly converted to hydrochloric acid, which dissolves in rain water, ice, and snow and does not reach the stratosphere. Even in explosive volcanic plumes that rise high in the atmosphere, nearly all of the hydrogen chloride is removed by precipitation before reaching stratospheric altitudes. Finally, although the exhaust from the Space Shuttle and from some rockets does inject some chlorine directly into the stratosphere, the quantities are very small (less than 1% of the annual input from halocarbons in the present stratosphere). In contrast, the major ozonedepleting human-produced halocarbons — such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) — do not disolve in water, do not react with snow or other natural surfaces, and are not broken down chemically in the lower atmosphere. Therefore, these and other human-produced substances containing chlorine do reach the stratosphere. Several pieces of evidence combine to establish human produced halocarbons as the primary source of stratospheric chlorine. First, measurements have shown that the chlorinated species that rise to the stratosphere are primarily manufactured compounds [mainly CFCs, carbon tetrachloride, methyl chloroform, and the hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) substitutes for CFCs], together with small amounts of hydrochloric acid (HCl) and methyl chloride (CH3Cl), which are partly natural in origin. Second, researchers have measured nearly all known gases containing chlorine in the stratosphere. They have found that the emissions of the human-produced halocarbons, plus the much smaller contribution from natural sources, could account for all of the stratospheric chlorine. Third, the increase in total stratospheric chlorine measured between 1980 and 1998 corresponds to the known increases in concentrations of human-produced halocarbons during that time. Although there are natural forces that cause

there is no evidence that natural changes are contributing significantly to the observed long-term trend of decreasing ozone. The formation of stratospheric ozone is initiated by ultraviolet (UV) fluctuations in ozone amounts,

light coming from the Sun. As a result, the Sun’s output affects the rate at which ozone is produced. The Sun’s energy release (both as UV light and as charged particles such as electrons and protons) does vary, especially over the well-known 11-year sunspot cycle. Observations over several solar cycles (since the 1960s) show that total global ozone levels vary by 1-2% from the maximum to the minimum of a typical cycle. However, changes

in the Sun’s output cannot be responsible for the

observed long-term changes in ozone, because the ozone downward trends are much larger than 1-2%. As the figure below shows, since 1978 the Sun’s energy output has gone through maximum values in about 1980 and 1991 and minimum values in about 1985 and 1996. It is now increasing again toward its next maximum around the year 2002. However, the trend in ozone was downward throughout that time. The ozone trends presented in this and previous international scientific assessments have been obtained by evaluating the long-term changes in ozone after accounting for the solar influence (as has been done in the figure below). Major, explosive volcanic eruptions can inject material directly into the ozone layer. Observations and model calculations show that volcanic particles cannot on their own deplete ozone.

It is only the interaction of human produced chlorine with particle surfaces that enhances ozone depletion in today’s atmosphere.

20

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Montreal Protocol Advantage cont’ ( ) Illegal CFC’s aren’t a big concern – the market is dying, enforcement is working, and the Protocol is solving it. Trio ’3

(A publication of the North American Commission on Environmental Cooperation -- Spring -http://www.cec.org/trio/stories/index.cfm?ed=9&ID=109&varlan=english)

However, the

Montreal Protocol set two schedules for the phase out of ODS—1996 for developed countries and 2010 for developing countries—and unwittingly created a black market in the process. Automobile refrigerants like chlorofluorocarbon 12 (CFC12), also known as R-12, went from a legal price of $4 per pound to a black market price of $30 a pound in the US. Auto manufacturers in the US stopped using R-12 in 1994, but the cost of retrofitting an older vehicle to newer standards continues to be higher than simply recharging the vehicle illegally. Thus, incentives to smuggle

expected to continue for at least two more seasons—particularly in the southern United States where a steady demand for R-12 in pre-1994 vehicles still exists,” says Bruce Pasfield, assistant chief of the Environmental Crimes Section at the US Department of Justice. A study from the US Environmental Protection Agency shows that some 27 million cars using R-12 were still on the road in 2002; In 2005 that number will shrink to seven million. However, the southern Mexico-US border remains an entry point for ODS continue despite the fact that an alternative exists.

“This smuggling of R-12 is

smugglers. “ODS smugglers are exploiting the ozone layer, and impacting human and ecosystem health for profits,” says González. “And while some smuggling occurs fromthe Bahamas into Florida, the Mexican-US border is the focus of law enforcement activities.” A nationwide CFC anti-smuggling initiative by the US Justice Department, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Customs Service, most recently helped convict ten individuals in January. They were ordered to pay fines of US$3 million for illegally importing and selling more than one million pounds of CFCs between 1996 and 1998. It was the second-largest prosecution involving ozone-depleting substances in US history. “As these defendants learned the hard way, CFC smugglers get caught, prosecuted, fined and sent to federal prison,” said John Peter Suarez, the EPA’s assistant administrator for Enforcement and Compliance Assurance. “This settlement sends a clear message that pollution

more than 114 individuals have been convicted in the US for illegal CFC import schemes and courts have imposed significant prison terms and several millions of dollars in fines. US Customs has seized approximately 1125 metric tons of ODS since 1992. “We will not doesn’t pay. We will take all actions necessary to enforce our laws against those who put the public at risk.” To date,

tolerate criminal conduct that is detrimental to our environment,” says Tom Sansonetti, assistant attorney general for the US Justice Department’s Environment and Natural Resources Division. “The Environment Division will continue its strong enforcement efforts against anyone who tries to gain an unfair advantage at the expense of the environment.” Mexico is also experiencing illegal trade in its territory. “One hundred and fifty tons of contraband CFC-12 was smuggled through the southern border of Mexico,” says Víctor Barrerra, national commercial manager for Quimobasicos, a legal producer of ODS. “This contraband was believed to be a Quimobasicos product that had been sold to Guatemala and El Salvador for $4 per pound, and then smuggled back into Mexico and sold for $10 per pound.” Barrera also says that additional illegal CFCs are entering the Mexican black market through the port city of Veracruz, via China and Europe. India and Russia are also thought be sources of illegal ODS. “Education and awareness are instrumental to combating illegal trade in ODS,” affirms González. “Canada, Mexico and the US all have

The signatories of the Montreal Protocol have also sought to keep pace with these new developments. In an effort to combat the illegal trade, an amendment to the Protocol was passed in 1997 that required the parties to establish import and export licensing regimes for ODS. Both the United States and Canada have ODS licensing systems in place, but Mexico is still in the process training programs to educate refrigeration technicians and government officials.”

of adopting the requisite legislation.

21

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Montreal Protocol Advantage cont’ Ozone depletion causes complete extinction – scientific consensus is on our side. Full of Holes ’95 (Full of Holes: Montreal Protocol and the Continuing Destruction of the Ozone Layer -- A GREENPEACE REPORT with contributions from OZONE ACTION -http://archive.greenpeace.org/ozone/holes/holebg.html)

When chemists Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina first postulated a link between chlorofluorocarbons and ozone layer depletion in 1974, the news was greeted with scepticism, but taken seriously nonetheless. The vast majority of credible scientists have since confirmed this hypothesis. The ozone layer around the Earth shields us all from harmful ultraviolet radiation from the sun. Without the ozone layer, life on earth would not exist. Exposure to increased levels of ultraviolet radiation can cause cataracts, skin cancer, and immune system suppression in humans as well as innumerable effects on other living systems. This is why Rowland's and Molina's theory was taken so seriously, so quickly - the stakes are literally the continuation of life on earth.

Independently, ozone depletion shatters DNA – making survival impossible. Earth & Society ’98

(A Project out of the University of Michigan -- THE OZONE LAYER: IMPORTANT COMPONENTS OF OZONE EDUCATION – http://www.umich.edu/~gs265/society/ozone.htm)

The ozone layer is essential for human life. It is able to absorb much harmful ultraviolet radiation, preventing penetration to the earth’s surface. Ultraviolet radiation (UV) is defined as radiation with wavelengths between 290320 nanometers, which are harmful to life because this radiation can enter cells and destroy the deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) of many life forms on planet earth. In a sense, the ozone layer can be thought of as a “UV filter” or our planet’s “built in sunscreen” (Geocities.com, 1998). Without the ozone layer, UV radiation would not be filtered as it reached the surface of the earth. If this happened, “cancer would break out and all of the living civilizations, and all species on earth would be in jeopardy” (Geocities.com, 1998). Thus, the ozone layer essentially allows life, as we know it, to exist.

22

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Montreal Protocol Advantage cont’ And, Ozone depletion kills plankton – creating a domino effect that shatters ocean life. The Green Community ’1 (An Environmental NGO -- http://www.thegreencommunity.org/mission.html)

As mentioned abouve, ozone naturally forms a layer in the earth's stratosphere (7-15 miles above the planet's surface). It functions to shield earth from the sun's dangerous UV (Ultra-Violet) rays. Ozone also contributes to the well being of life here as part of the greenhouse effect (keeping heat near the earth's surface by preventing it from radiating out into space). Ozone, however, at surface level is a pollutant. The main culprit in ozone depletion are CFC's. The CFCs rise up into the

there is a huge hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica and as a result an increased level of harmful UV rays are hitting the earth. The adverse effects on all of life because of this is well-known. In humans, there have been more cases of cancer, cataracts and immune system depression. However, one of the most disturbing findings is that UV seriously affects the photosynthesis and metabolism of plankton - the BASE of the ocean food chain. Without plankton, most (if not all) life in the ocean would perish as in a domino effect. atmosphere where they break into atoms that destroy ozone. This is a problem because

Extinction inevitable without strong ocean ecosystems. Craig ‘3

(Robin – Ass Prof of Law @ Indiana – McGeorge Law Rev – lexis)

The world's oceans contain many resources and provide many services that humans consider valuable. "Occupy[ing] more than [seventy percent] of the earth's surface and [ninety-five percent] of the biosphere," 17 oceans provide food; marketable goods such as shells, aquarium fish, and pharmaceuticals; life support processes, including carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling, and weather mechanics; and quality of life, both aesthetic and economic, for

millions of people worldwide. 18 Indeed, it is difficult to overstate the importance of the ocean to humanity's well-being: "The ocean is the cradle of life on our planet, and it remains the axis of existence, the locus of planetary biodiversity, and the engine of the chemical and hydrological cycles that create and maintain our atmosphere and climate." 19 Ocean and coastal ecosystem services have been calculated to be worth over twenty billion dollars per year, worldwide. 20 In addition, many people assign heritage and existence value to the ocean and its creatures, viewing the world's seas as a common legacy to be passed on relatively intact to future generations. 21 Continues: We may not know much about the sea, but we

do know this much: if we kill the ocean we kill ourselves, and we will take most of the biosphere with us. The Black Sea is almost dead, 863 its once-complex and productive ecosystem almost entirely replaced by a monoculture of comb jellies, "starving out fish and dolphins, emptying fishermen's nets, and converting the web of life into brainless, wraith-like blobs of jelly." 864 More importantly, the Black Sea is not necessarily unique.

23

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Agriculture Advantage Advantage # ___ Agriculture Scenario # 1

Food Prices

Fuel Costs in the Ag Sector multiply food prices and create chaos throughout the global farming community. Dahlberg ’97

(Kenneth A. – editor of Agriculture & Human Values – MLT Newsletter – originally published in The Neighborhood Works – and in Food Flight – Feb/March -- page 14 – obtained via http://www.michiganlandtrust.org/newslet2.htm)

What restructuring? Current

agriculture (national and international) is unsustainable. Not only does it impose extremely high highly fossil-fuel dependent. In the US it takes roughly ten energy calories to deliver one food calorie on our plates. As fossil fuel prices rise, there will be a huge multiplier effect on food prices with resulting chaos throughout the food system if this happens quickly. As we move into the posthealth, social, and environmental costs, but it is

fossil-fuel era, we can either wait until things collapse or start the necessary restructuring now. This restructuring will greatly affect towns and cities as well as rural regions. What food systems? And what are they anyway? It is not surprising that people raise these questions since most are aware only of production agriculture. Most city dwellers, not to mention city planners, are otherwise illiterate when it comes to their local food system. Few citizens or officials are aware of how dependent their city is upon distant national and international systems (public and private) for food and how vulnerable those systems are. Neither are they aware of the extent and complexity of their local food systems, much less their potential, and the need to develop that potential. This is reflected in the fact that no US city (or state) has a Department of Food. Equally, few people are aware that the value of the produce from all US gardens (urban and rural) is roughly equivalent to that of the corn crop (Approximately $18 billion a year!). Also, there is little awareness that agricultural, horticultural, and food-related activities constitute roughly 20-25% of a local economy (at least in those few regions where studies have been done).

Prices are rising quickly now, and this is the vital internal link to US consumer confidence. Spencer ‘8

(Naomi – quoting economic data gathered by the Boston Globe and the Argus Research Corporation – World Socialist Website – March 12th -http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/mar2008/food-m12.shtml.)

In the US, rising prices have compounded problems created by the collapse of the housing market, rising energy costs and stagnating wages for the majority of the population. Retail prices on staple American foods rose by double-digit percentages in the last year, according to new data from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The cost of milk rose 26 percent, and egg prices grew by 40 percent. A report Sunday in the Boston Globe suggested that food

inflation could pose a more serious threat to consumers in the US than soaring oil prices. This is because food accounts for 13 percent of spending for average households, compared to about 4 percent for gasoline. “Rising food prices can be particularly corrosive to consumer confidence because people are so frequently exposed to the cost increases,” the paper commented. “It’s the biggest risk we face economically, and it might be the thing that does us in,” Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research Corporation, told the Globe. “There’s nothing really worse than having a job, making money, and forking most of it over just so you can have the same amount of food. You’re running in place, and it really weighs on you,” he said. Rising food prices will have a broader economic impact, as consumers are forced to cut back their spending on other products.

24

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Agriculture Advantage cont’

And, the fuel costs associated with ag-planes are particularly significant. McCoy ’04

(not Jack of Law & Order fame -- Casey McCoy, director of all fire activities for the Kansas Forest Service. Kansas Canopy -- Summer http://www.kansasforests.org/pubs/kscanopy/2004summer.pdf)

In addition, fuel

for turbine powered aircraft currently costs about $2.45 per gallon (and you thought automotive gasoline was expensive!). Considering that a turbine powered ag plane can consume 42 to 95 gallons per hour, fuel costs alone can range from $103 to $233 per hour. Add to that other related “indirect” costs, such as maintaining the aircraft and annual inspections, and it’s easy to see that the owners of these aircraft are willing to up front a sizeable sum to show their commitment to the success of the program. And if that isn’t enough, consider this from a taxpayer standpoint. SEATs are a “call when needed” resource. State or local government isn’t required to pay for housing and security of the aircraft when not in use during fire suppression.

US Consumer confidence is key to the global economy. Fund Strategy ‘8

(April 14, 2008 – lexis)

The US credit crunch is having an impact around the world, but that does not mean we are set for a global recession. There will be a slowdown, but the outlook is not all gloom and doom The conventional view of the global economy is still America-centric. Certainly, America is by far the world's biggest economy, accounting for 27-28% of global GDP at market prices. Moreover, American consumer spending absorbs 19% of the world's output, and is consequently seen by many as the most important single driver of global economic activity.

25

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Agriculture Advantage cont’ The impact is extinction

26

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Agriculture Advantage cont’ Independently, US prices drive up global food prices Reuter’s ‘8

(June 28th -- available via Javno website -- http://www.javno.com/en/world/clanak.php?id=159941.)

Corn prices at the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday traded at a record $8.25 per bushel, more than double the 40-year average. Stockpiles of corn in the United States -- which normally ships more than half of all world corn exports -- had already been projected at 13-year lows next year. So the effect on global food prices as U.S. prices soar has alarmed everyone from central bankers to food aid groups.

And, High food prices kill billions. Power ’96

(Paul Power Jr. – quoting Pinstrup-Anderson; Director of the International Food policy Research Institute in Washington DC – Power is on the Staff of the Tampa Tribune – Tampa Tribune – Jan 20th)

27

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Agriculture Advantage cont’ Scenario # 2

Ag Planes.

Ag Planes are crucial to the prosperity of US and global agriculture. Aerospace America ’3

(July, 2003 – lexis)

The United States and most developed countries in the world depend on a plentiful and reliable source of food to provide a stable environment for prosperity. A key element to ensure that this food source is protected from insects and fertilized for growth is the Agriculture Application Aircraft (crop duster). Most crop duster aircraft today are modifications of very old designs and don't reflect the integration of technology advances to improve performance and reduce costs. The objective of this request for proposals is to design an innovative solution to the Agriculture Applications Aircraft that achieves significant improvements in performance and safety over present aircraft at reduced costs.

Transitioning away Avgas to Ethanol is vital for Ag Planes and stable farming in the US. Shauck ‘94

(et al, Max Shauck is the head of the Baylor Institute for Aviation Sciences -- Certification of an Agricultural Spray Aircraft on Ethanol Fuel,” Proceedings of The Sixth National Bioenergy Conference, Reno/Sparks, Nevada, October 2-6, 1994. -- http://www3.baylor.edu/bias/publications/agriculturalsprayaircraft.pdf)

Since ethanol is for the most part in this country produced from corn, it is a natural choice to include agricultural aircraft in the first group of aircraft to be certified to use ethanol as a fuel. Our increased dependence on imported oil is especially dangerous in the area of agriculture. Without a reliable supply of a liquid fuel to power the farm machinery needed to produce our crops we are in a precarious situation. The use of ethanol, a domestically produced fuel, in agricultural aircraft is a start on the road to energy independence. As an aviation fuel, ethanol provides a less expensive and better performing alternative to avgas.

28

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Agriculture Advantage cont’ Prosperous US Ag is key to feeding the globe. NASULGC ‘99

(National Association of State Universities and Land-Grant Colleges, “Global Food Issues”, http://www.nasulgc.org/foodsociety/Global401.PDF)

The food sector accounts for approximately 16% of all employment in the U.S. We export about 20% of our food production, worth more than $60 billion dollars each year. The exported portion of our food production accounts for between 3 and 4% of U.S. employment, representing hundreds of thousands of jobs for U.S. citizens. Guaranteeing the growth of this cornerstone of our economy, including the positive factor it is in our balance of trade, is of great importance to the U.S. The U.S. food system must overcome a number of challenges as it faces a global ladder of rising food expectations. At the lowest rungs on the ladder are those who need to increase per capita food supplies to reach adequate caloric intake while protecting the environment and relieving stress on water resources. On intermediate rungs of this ladder are those whose rising per capita incomes are driving demand for greater dietary diversity, including more meat, milk, eggs, fruits and vegetables. On the top rungs are consumers seeking highly customized diets, with emphasis on nutrition, healthfulness, convenience and sensitivity to how foods are produced, prepared and served. The U.S. food system has an important role to play in serving all these expectations: supplying basic foodstuffs in an efficient, environmentally sound manner; providing a more diverse diet to more affluent consumers; and offering high-value food products to the most affluent consumers.

29

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Agriculture Advantage cont’

Global food shortages make resource wars inevitable and tech shortcuts won’t solve them. Rosenberger ’97 (Dr. Leif Roderick Rosenberger has been the professor of economics at the US Army War College since 1989. He is currently on sabbatical leave and is a visiting scholar on the economics faculty at Harvard University. Parameters – Spring -- http://carlislewww.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/97spring/rosenbe.htm)

Even if a world food crisis is not imminent, we should ask ourselves whether trends have indeed invalidated Malthus's thesis, or whether they have merely transformed or deferred it. One

thing is certain. Given that the population in 2035 could be about twice what it is today, there will have to be a lot more grain available to meet the demand. Most of the ways to grow more grain result from greater farm output, which can be increased either by developing new farmland or by making existing farmland more productive. The world food supply also benefits from reducing the demand for feed grain (e.g., reducing population growth) and by developing new sources of food. At the same time, there are many seemingly marginal changes in how the world manages farming that could substantially affect chronic regional shortages. Efforts to make better use of existing cropland, to reverse deforestation, to vest women with rights they now lack in some agricultural communities, to modify traditional farming practices, to reduce losses of each harvest to pests and decay--each and all could increase the amount of grain that is available each season for consumption by humans and animals.

Profound systemic

change, such as was prompted by the principles of the Green Revolution, is more problematic. Biotechnology, once the hope of many agricultural specialists, may never rival the Green Revolution's legacy, but it is also probably too soon to write it off.

Unanticipated breakthroughs, new theories, proof that genetically altered foodstuffs do no harm to humans when consumed directly or through animal protein--all have the potential to stimulate quantum shifts in the global supply of food. Yet we've seen enough constraints to question anyone's forecast of a food cornucopia. In the near term, strategists need to avoid the twin pitfalls of complacency about a world full of food and doomsday alarms about a global food crisis. What is needed from world leaders is an unprecedented level of cooperation in the formulation of a long-term international food strategy. One consequence of failure could be resource-driven conflicts that might have been avoided had policymakers understood the nature and extent of the world food supply problem and taken appropriate steps to deal with it. What is needed to avert that outcome is a comprehensive strategy that synthesizes diverse approaches to improving the growth, harvesting, storing, and distribution of the annual crop of grains, while prioritizing resources for the most promising areas of improvement. Thus, biotechnology, the sensible expansion of cropland, the responsible extension of the Green Revolution technology in neglected arable land, continued basic research into plant genetics, and smarter public policies all are important in this holistic approach. Curbing population growth and other demand reduction programs are also essential parts of any plan to stabilize the world food supply for the long term. None of these objectives will be easy to define or carry out; they all have the potential to affect profoundly the values, cultures, societies, and beliefs of the affected peoples. When Norman Borlaug received the Nobel Prize in 1970 for his research leading to the Green Revolution, he warned that the new methods would provide only a limited respite, 30 years at most, in which governments could develop and carry out supply and demand policies for dealing with the world food supply challenge.[71] As we approach the end of Borlaug's window of opportunity, the world is still groping for that strategy. Until we

The real danger is to relegate the world food supply to the backwater of strategic studies. Strategists need to understand that the world food supply is a global challenge that bears most heavily on the peace and prosperity of the international system. World leaders have an unprecedented opportunity to move this global issue to the top of their agendas. develop one, there will continue to be those who yearn for simple solutions to the complex problems of world food supply and demand.

If they fail, their successors may have to deal with the problem "when it comes to visit" as a major and enduring crisis in the early decades of the next century.

30

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Agriculture Advantage cont’

This “famine-resource war combo” would kill hundreds of millions and cause multiple nuclear wars. Pfeiffer ’4

(Dale Allen Pfeiffer -- not Damien Pfister -- Contributing Editor for Energy for From the Wilderness Publications, and a published author – including titles such as The End of the Oil Age -Global Climate Change and Peak Oil http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/041304_climate_change_pt1.html)

From such a shift, the report claims, utterly appalling ecological consequences would follow. Europe and Eastern North America would plunge into a mini-ice age, with weather patterns resembling present day Siberia. Violent storms could wreak havoc around the globe. Coastal areas such as The Netherlands, New York, and the West coast of North America could become uninhabitable, while most island nations could be completely submerged. Lowlands like Bangladesh could be permanently swamped. While flooding would become the rule along coastlines, mega-droughts could destroy the world's breadbaskets. The dust bowl could return to America's Midwest. Famine and drought would

result in a major drop in the planet's ability to sustain the present human population. Access to water could become a major battleground – hundreds of millions could die as a result of famine and resource wars. More than 400 million people in subtropical regions will be put at grave risk. There would be mass migrations of climate refugees, particularly to southern Europe and North America. Nuclear arms proliferation in conjunction with resource wars could very well lead to nuclear wars.8 And none of this takes into account the effects of global peak oil and the North American natural gas cliff. Not pretty.

31

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Terrorism Advantage

Advantage # __

Terrorism

Another terrorist episode involving a small plane is coming right now – qualified studies confirm. Schaler ‘4

(Karen Schaler, Globe Correspondent -- she is quoting data gathered from CSIS -Boston Globe -- August 26, 2004 -http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/08/26/analysts_warn_of_small_plane_t errorism_threat/)

The threat of terrorists using small planes to attack American targets does exist and requires immediate action by the government, according to a Washington think tank that is nearing completion of a study of general aviation's vulnerabilities.

''It's a threat that can't be ignored any longer," said David Heyman, the director of the homeland security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Heyman said the

nonpartisan research group has been working with the federal government on the study this evaluate intelligence out of Pakistan that presents specific scenarios in which Al Qaeda has looked at using small planes and helicopters for attacks on American soil. He said this intelligence was actually year to

discovered ''several years ago" but is now beginning to get attention.

''We've also heard threat warnings from [Homeland Security Secretary Tom] Ridge and the intelligence community about the interest of Al Qaeda to use general aviation assets for an attack," said Heyman. ''We need to consider the use of smaller aircraft in our threat analysis. There are legitimate scenarios which we need to be concerned about." Phil Anderson, a senior associate at the center who specializes in homeland security issues, said the

possible scenarios

include situations in which Al Qaeda members could use a small aircraft, such as a single-engine, four-seat Cessna 172, to cause catastrophe. One potential target could be a stadium packed with tens of thousands of people. ''The no-fly zones over these stadiums are loosely enforced," said Anderson.

32

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Terrorism Advantage cont’ And, the kind of jet fuel matters -- Avgas was the fuel used to maximize burnings for World Trade Center bombings. America’s Debate ’4

(Fake Terror -- May 2nd -http://www.americasdebate.com/forums/simple/index.php/t6274.html

(2)considering the history of states and countries (including ours) of using fake terrorism to get what they want, why not? Our society is too open for this to happen nowdays. There are too many people looking at things in too many different ways. And, there is a natural suspicion towards the government dating back to the Watergate days. Let's look at your 9-11 "theory". The WTC collapse was studied extensively not so much by a government agency, although they looked at it as well, but rather by experts in structural design, mechanical engineers and architects independantly. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) brought together the top experts in the world to evaluate exactly what happened to the towers and why. If there had been some demolition charges placed at the base of the towers, they would have discovered evidence of that. There was none, and they put together a pretty definitive report about exactly what

Basically, the towers collapsed the way they did (straight down) because the structural design of the towers transported the loads from the outside in. Once the heat from the fire caused by the avgas caused the structural members to begin failing, the towers folded in on themselves. happened based on the science. It makes for an interesting read if you're an engineer like I am and their analysis methodology is first rate.

33

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Terrorism Advantage cont’

And, Terrorists specifically target aviation fuels based on its combustible nature. Wright ’4

(Bernard R Wright – M.S. and contributor to Forensic Examiner Magazine -- The Forensic Examiner, Summer 2004 v13 i2 p14(6) – obtained via infotrac)

Hydrocarbon fuels have been used for many years to provide heat and power. We take this power for granted, and in most cases are unaware of the hazards presented by these fuels. Fuel spills and leaks have historically caused major accidents, but only recently have we seen the deliberate use err energy sources to interrupt our

Terrorists have realized that the intense fire following a fuel explosion can compound the damage and destruction they seek to achieve. The following article discusses the utilization of various fuels in our normal lifestyle, along with some of the potential hazards presented by their availability. When one considers that in 1999 over 470 million pounds of jet fuel were consumed per day in North America, and that each pound of jet fuel has 10 times the potential destructive energy of an equal weight of TNT or other explosives, the potential for misuse should not be underestimated (Clodfelter, 1997). lifestyle.

The solution rests with developing alternatives to avgas – this also explains how 9-11 could have been avoided if alternative fuels powered the aviation sector. Wright ’4

(Bernard R Wright – M.S. and contributor to Forensic Examiner Magazine -- The Forensic Examiner, Summer 2004 v13 i2 p14(6) – obtained via infotrac)

If a large airliner is loaded with 50,000 to 60,000 gallons of jet fuel, with an energy content equal to millions of pounds of TNT, the potential damage to life and

This does not include the impact energy of the plane and the contained fuel. It is difficult to calculate the amount of explosive energy relative to the heat energy, but the majority of damage would probably be inflicted by the burning fuel. It is thought that the Twin Towers could have withstood the aircraft impact, but the structure was primarily affected by the burning fuel impinging on the steel structure, which softened the framework. property merits using any means available to prevent an explosion.

What Can Be Done To Reduce This Threat? Developing fuels with reduced vulnerability that perform properly in the engine system is somewhat of a contradiction. A fuel that burns but doesn't burn? The difference is the ignition energy and the state of the fuel, either liquid or mist/vapor. Fuel in the vapor state (or small droplets) can be ignited with a very low level of energy, a fraction of a millijoule. For example, we have all walked across the carpet in our house and then turned on the light switch and saw or felt a small spark. If there were a natural gas leak in the house at that time, the small spark would ignite the fuel vapor with catastrophic results. The theory behind the development of a firesafe fuel additive is to prevent fuel from vaporizing or atomizing, thus greatly increasing the required ignition energy, such as that present in an engine combustor.

34

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Terrorism Advantage cont’ This is specifically true of ethanol – it burns cooler, and has less detonation, than avgas. Farm Futures ‘5 (“Ethanol takes to the Skies” – December 1st -- http://www.ethanolmt.org/php/novdec05.php)

Ethanol is becoming the most likely choice to replace conventional avgas. "It's the only future piston aircraft have now. Leaded gas is not a viable situation," said Dr. Max Shauck, chairman of the Institute of Air Science at Baylor University, who has researched Ethanol's use in airplanes for more than 25 years. Ethanol has been tested in small prop-driven airplanes with a great degree of success, leading some to believe that general aviation (i.e., small aircraft) may join the automotive industry in turning to Ethanol as a major fuel source. "I've been working at it for nine years, so if I wasn't excited about it, I wouldn't have put in the time," said Dennis Helder, director of engineering research at South Dakota State University (SDSU). "This has a big potential of being an alternative to avgas." "For corn growers and the Ethanol industry, the news is good," Shauck said. "In the last few months, our e-mails are overflowing with requests for information. People want to work with us. I believe this will be an economic boom. It will obviously help farmers."

The benefits of Ethanol-blended gas are numerous: · The wholesale price of conventional avgas is 70 to 80 per-cent more than wholesale Ethanol in most parts of the nation. · Ethanol burns cleaner than avgas. As a result, the time between overhauls (TBO) is extended. In some cases, the TBO for engines burning Ethanol-based fuel is twice as long as the TBO for engines burning avgas.

· Ethanol burns cooler, resulting in lower cylinder head temperatures. ·Ethanol-based aviation fuel resists detonation at high compression values and in higher-powered engines. · Tests revealed Ethanol provides an average of 10 percent more horsepower in most engines. · Engines burning Ethanol-based aviation fuel will not experience vapor lock.

35

Avgas Aff – 1AC – Terrorism Advantage cont’ And, the next episode will occur via general aviation – not commercial aviation. The death toll will surpass 9-11. Muller ’2

(Richard – Technology Review online – March 11th -- http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/950263/posts)

Atta knew that September 11 would be the last day on which an airplane could be hijacked with ease. After September 11, sky marshals are hardly necessary. No pilot ever again will willingly hand over the controls to a terrorist. Even if a hijacker kills the pilots, the courage and the fury of the passengers and crew will be unleashed.

An Air Tractor 502 Crop Duster airplane is far smaller than a 767, but it is also a flying tanker. It has fertilizer containers that hold roughly 1,200 liters of liquid, plus a 500-liter fuel tank. It flies close to the ground, where it cannot be seen by most radar technologies. Fill 'er up with 1,700 liters of gasoline, and you are carrying roughly 2.1 to 2.4 tons, the energy equivalent of 32 to 36 tons of TNT. What could a single suicide pilot do with a full crop duster? Crash into Yankee Stadium during the World Series, or into the Superbowl, or the Olympics opening ceremony. The deaths, including trampling, might exceed those at the World Trade Center, with everything broadcast live on international TV. (I virtually held my breath during these recent events.) Or the pilot might target a petrochemical plant, or a nuclear waste facility near a large city. (Can we please move those radioactive wastes to the relative safety of Yucca Mountain in Nevada?)

Nuclear Armageddon is avoidable, but another event that reminds the US public of 9-11 will cause full-scale nuclear retaliation. Hanson ‘4

(Victor Davis Hanson is a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. Private Papers -- Response to Readership -- June 20th http://victorhanson.com/articles/Private%20Papers/Question%20Log/June_20.html)

Can Islam coexist with the West and its modernity or will events result in a war that may, in the end, provoke a nuclear retaliation and a third world war, a war more terrible and destructive than has ever been known? I surely hope not. And in fact I don’t think it will happen that way. Many of the Gulf States live with and thrive on modernism, and seem to have accommodated Islam with it, albeit with a strong dose of anti-Semitism and convenient antiWestern parlor talk.

The danger, as I see it, is that the terrorists still do not fully comprehend their peril or the strong visceral hatred of them that they have earned in the West. Thus countries like Syria, Lebanon, and Iran that think this is all a funny game discount the real peril that they are in. If there is another 9-11 and if the terrorists are shown to have originated from a Middle East country that knowingly harbored them, then the American reaction really would be terrible. It would have to be— if we were to continue our civilization. Ask yourself what we would have done had the Soviets sent a one-kiloton cruise missile into the World Trade Center. As I gauge US public opinion, it is in a holding pattern, watching events in Iraq. It simmers over the beheadings; it is tired of seeing the Arab Street; it has no patience with the Arab talking heads who assure us that we are to blame, but for the moment it is not ready to unleash its full power. So let

us hope that nuts like the mullahs, Mr. Assad, the Pakistani border al Qaedists, or Hezbollah do not do something stupid—because this time there is no real restraint on American counter-responses.

36

Avgas – Aff – Air Monitoring Advantage Advantage # ___ Air Monitoring

Global air monitoring does not happen now and is vital to check pollution – the major barrier is cost. Full certification is key to get this up-and-running. Shauck 2000

(et al -- Maxwell Shauck, Department of Aviation Sciences Renewable Aviation Fuels Development Center -- ALCOHOL, AVIATION AND AIR QUALITY: THE IMPLEMENTATION OF AN INTERNATIONAL PROJECT – July -http://www3.baylor.edu/bias/publications/alcoholandairquality.pdf)

Air pollution monitoring from instrumented aircraft has typically been a very expensive procedure for studying air mass pollutants concentrations, dynamics and movements. This type of monitoring is performed routinely only in few states in the USA. Monitoring from aircraft is mostly used for case studies to help resolve critical air pollution problems in some of the most polluted urban areas of the country. The reason these critical investigations are not routinely performed is mainly the high cost of instrumenting and operating an aircraft and the need for specialized scientific support to collect and interpret the data. To assess the extent of air pollution in a given area and to find solutions to ameliorate it, reliable technical data and information is needed. Even in the United States, with an established ground based air pollution monitoring network in most areas there are huge gaps in the information needed to establish effective policies to control air quality. Developing

countries in all continents are struggling with worsening air pollution problems. Monitoring systems are either non-existent or those in place are not properly maintained and are quickly deteriorating. This situation is best described by the Global Environmental Outlook (GEO) 2000 reporting “Environmental progress and policy effectiveness can be assessed only if quality data are routinely collected through monitoring systems. However, environmental monitoring infrastructure is poorly developed in most countries, making regular production of policy-relevant environmental data and indicators impossible. The

situation is being exacerbated by the decline of some existing monitoring systems due to shrinking resources”. In the United States, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has stated that “presently there is no national air quality monitoring network designed to perform routine measurements of air toxics levels” (Rep. Waxman Report, March 1 1999). The

use of an airborne sampling platform will permit monitoring of air pollutants at essentially an infinite number of locations and altitudes. Using aircraft, it is possible to track a plume of pollution and determine the fate of the pollutants under different climatic conditions and in the presence or absence of interacting chemical species. The Project

The goal of this program is to fully FAA certify a Cessna 172 on both ethanol and ETBE and then fit this aircraft with advanced, miniaturized air pollution monitoring equipment. This equipment is currently being developed at a number of institutions and organizations around the world. The “clean burning” aircraft would have the dual advantages of being highly cost effective while minimizing contribution to the air pollution problem that it is seeking to monitor besides serving as a particularly effective educational tool.

37

Avgas – Aff – Air Monitoring Advantage cont’ Post US certification, aircraft monitoring would get modeled overseas. Shauck 2000

(et al -- Maxwell Shauck, Department of Aviation Sciences Renewable Aviation Fuels Development Center -- ALCOHOL, AVIATION AND AIR QUALITY: THE IMPLEMENTATION OF AN INTERNATIONAL PROJECT – July -http://www3.baylor.edu/bias/publications/alcoholandairquality.pdf)

The ethanol powered/air quality monitoring Cessna 172 will be a model that will be easy to replicate around the world. The modifications to run it on ethanol/ETBE are simple and inexpensive. A STC kit will be developed and distributed to assist in the conversion . procedure. The air pollution instruments will be arranged to maximize the space available, and they will be grouped in an instrument package, easy to handle to be either installed or removed in or from the aircraft. Fuel

Ethanol is less expensive today per hour as an aviation fuel, and it is a higher performance fuel that reduces the exhaust pollution. The reason ethanol is not yet the fuel of choice for the piston engine fleet, is mainly lack of public awareness about biomass fuels in general and ethanol as an aviation fuel in particular. What could be a more convincing demonstration than the use of ethanol by a large fleet of aircraft performing pollution investigations caused in a large part by the use of fossil fuels? The “visibility” of the project will further underline the advantages of ethanol based aviation fuels; moreover, this enhanced profile will clearly demonstrate to private industry the viability of operating a wide array of commercial aircraft on renewable fuels, including . aircraft used for commuter airlines, agricultural aircraft and private aircraft. Superior

economics and performance will insure rapid acceptance and deployment into the piston engine fleet in general aviation, particularly in light of the quite precarious future of leaded aviation gasoline.

38

Avgas – Aff – Air Monitoring Advantage cont’ Ethanol-based aircrafts in the US sparks a global transition to air monitoring in the countries with the greatest air pollution. Alvarez ‘5

(Sergio Alvarez, The Baylor Institute of Air Science, Baylor University -- FROM CONCEPT TO REALITY: A SMALL AIR QUALITY SAMPLING AIRCRAFT POWERED BY ETHANOL -http://www3.baylor.edu/bias/publications/FromConcepttoRealit.pdf)

The utilization of municipal waste, industrial waste, agricultural waste and dedicated energy crops, has the potential to expand domestic fuel supplies for a large percentage of countries currently importing costly fossil fuels. Many of these countries face serious problems of air pollution. There

is a critical need in these countries to obtain air quality data in order to determine sources and understand the dynamics of their regional air pollution. The most cost effective way to obtain this type of information necessary to develop a successful pollution abatement program is an instrumented aircraft. The use of a small air sampling aircraft using ethanol as its fuel provides a cost effective solution to the excessive cost of operation normally associated with the standard size air sampling aircraft. Additionally, the use of this aircraft would promote the technology transfer of the use of ethanol as an aviation fuel and would serve as a demonstration/educational tool to accelerate adoption of ethanol as a fuel in any country with problems of fuel availability and air pollution.

39

Avgas – Aff – Air Monitoring Advantage cont’ Low-cost Air monitoring aircraft crucial to checking global air particulates. Plan makes this affordable for developing nations. Alvarez ‘5

(Sergio Alvarez, The Baylor Institute of Air Science, Baylor University -- FROM CONCEPT TO REALITY: A SMALL AIR QUALITY SAMPLING AIRCRAFT POWERED BY ETHANOL -http://www3.baylor.edu/bias/publications/FromConcepttoRealit.pdf)

The low cost ethanol powered aircraft, specifically designed to monitor air quality, provides great potential for wide implementation in countries around the world not able to afford these type of investigations while helping to promote programs involving both air quality and the advancement of alcohols as alternative fuels.

The small sampling aircraft will be invaluable in promoting programs with potential of achieving national energy security, strong rural economies and ultimately clean air for all people.

The terminal impact to air pollution is extinction. Driesen ‘3

(David, Professor of Law, Syracuse, Buffalo Environmental Law Journal, Fall, 2002 / Spring, 2003, p. LN)

Air pollution can make life unsustainable by harming the ecosystem upon which all life depends and harming the health of both future and present generations. The Rio Declaration articulates six key principles that are relevant to air pollution. These principles can also be understood as goals, because they describe a state of affairs [*27] that is worth achieving. Agenda 21, in turn, states a program of action for realizing those goals. Between them, they aid understanding The first principle is that "human beings. . . are entitled to a healthy and productive life in harmony with nature", because they are "at the center of concerns for sustainable of sustainable development's meaning for air quality.

development." n3 While the Rio Declaration refers to human health, its reference to life "in harmony with nature" also reflects a concern about the natural environment. n4 Since

air pollution damages both human health and the environment, air quality implicates both of these concerns. n5

40

Avgas Aff -- A-to Topicality – “Must be a Direct Incentive” ( ) We meet – the plan directly incentivizes a renewable fuel. The non-topical version of the plan would be to certify fuel efficient engines or ban conventional aviation gas. We are topical – they plan ONLY acts directly upon alt energy.

( ) Counter-definition – Equipment Certifications and Renewable Access laws are incentives Diehl ‘7

(Rustin P. Diehl -- Staff Member, Journal of Land, Resources & Environmental Law – lexis)

Some of the policy incentives encouraging the use of renewable energies include: construction and design policies, contractor licensing, equipment certifications, generation disclosure rules, net metering rules, renewables portfolio set asides, required utility green power option, and solar and wind access laws. 57 In addition to these policy incentives, many states have adopted portfolio mandates or portfolio standards, which require certain percentages of energy come from renewable sources. 58

( ) Reasons to Prefer:

a) We meet the vacuum test – the plan makes no sense in a world with renewable fuels b) We provide the most direct Affs – legalizing on face has the fewest steps and allows the Aff no wiggle room to duck-back to fuel efficiency.

c) Limits – We are a smaller number of mechanisms – a finite number of alternative energies are legally precluded.

( ) Reasonability – T should not be about “competing interpretations” – that incentives procedurals at the expense of topicspecific clash and education.

41

Avgas Aff -- A-to Topicality – “Must be a Direct Incentive” cont’

( ) Predictability checks – the EPA expressly defines broader fuel standards as an “incentive” EPA ’98

(Jane Armstrong, EPA Director of Vehicles Programs and Compliance Division, Office of Mobile Sources -- Certification to Clean-Fuel Vehicle Standards – Feb 3rd -http://www.epa.gov/OMS/cert/dearmfr/vpcd9802.pdf)

A clean alternative fuel is defined as “any fuel ... used in a clean-fuel vehicle that complies with the standards and requirements applicable to such vehicle under this title when using such fuel1.” These requirements mean that fleet owners will only get credit under a CFFP if they purchase and use a vehicle which will Section 246 calls for fleet operators to operate their clean-fuel vehicles on “clean alternative fuels” in the covered nonattainment areas.

operate on a clean alternative fuel for that vehicle. Based on limited vehicle choice for fleet owners, due in part to the limited availability of fuels that qualify as clean alternative fuels, EPA has announced a one year delay of the start date for the CFFP to the 1999 model year. The CAA prohibits EPA from mandating that manufacturers certify and produce clean-fuel vehicles for the

manufacturers and fleet operators have requested guidance on whether commercially available gasoline, including conventional and reformulated gasoline, would be considered a “clean alternative fuel” for a CFV certified using the federal certification procedures, including the federal test fuel specifications. A review of EPA’s current certification and compliance procedures is helpful in responding to this issue. CFFP. Vehicle

EPA’s certification procedures require demonstration of the mechanical and exhaust emission deterioration characteristic of each engine family. Manufacturers, when certifying vehicles to meet federal emission standards, use commercially-available federal fuels when accumulating mileage and federal test fuel when performing emissions testing. The deterioration demonstration is shown by testing 3 at least one vehicle per engine family at multiple intervals for the useful life of the vehicle (100,000 miles for light-duty vehicles). Manufacturers then mathematically combine the results of these tests to determine the exhaust emission deterioration factor for each pollutant. If a manufacturer were to use commercially available federal fuel during the 100,000 mile accumulation , the absolute emission levels at each test point would likely be higher than if commercially available California fuel were used. However, the slope of the deterioration would be very similar because a standardized test fuel is used, not a commercial fuel. EPA recognizes that some manufacturers wishing to certify 1999 vehicles according to the provisions in this guidance document have already begun or completed their emissions deterioration testing using commercially available California fuels. Therefore, EPA will allow the deterioration factors generated by each vehicle subject to the 1 42

of 40 CFR 86.11394. 2 3 2 provisions in this document to be used without having to demonstrate a new exhaust deterioration on a second fuel based on previous EPA policy regarding durability carryover of California data. The provisions of 40 CFR 86.096-24(f), Advisory Circular 17F, and the January 10, 1994, “Dear Manufacturer Letter” 94-01 provide the basis for EPA to accept the carryover and/or carryacross of data from California only engine families. In the “Dear Manufacturer Letter,” 94-01, EPA identifies three specific considerations for the carryover and carryacross of California durability data. These considerations are: 1. 2. 3. Effects on exhaust emission levels of the California fuel and test procedures. Effects on the deterioration of mileage and accumulation using Phase 2 fuel, and The possibility of linecrossing using EPA test fuel and test procedures. For the purpose of CFV’s, each request to carryover California LEV duability data must address items 2) and 3) when the durability service accumulation mileage was completed using Phase 2 fuel. EPA believes durability carryover can be approved without significant risk to emissions performance if a manufacturer can demonstrate that thermal degradation of the catalyst does not increase when using non-Phase 2 fuel. One method for showing this is provided in the appendix of A/C 17F. The manufacturer must also provide a technical rationale for concluding that the linecrossing criteria of §86.094-(28) (a) (4) (B) would have been satisfied if the vehicle had operated on non-Phase 2 fuel during mileage accumulation and the actual emission testing been conducted using a fuel meeting the criteria of §86.113-94(a). For vehicles that completed all service accumulation mileage on non-phase 2 fuel the criteria of item 2) will have already been satisfied. For item 3), however, the actual emission testing would have been conducted using Phase 2 fuel. Therefore, the manufacturer must provide the technical rationale for concluding that the linecrossing criteria would have been satisfied if the emission testing had been conducted using the fuel meeting the criteria of §86.113USC § 7581 (1) Clean Fuel Implementation MEMORANDUM, from Margo Oge to Region Directors, May 22, 1997 Each exhaust emission test is conducted using a standardized fuel meeting the requirements

94(a). Confirmatory compliance testing conducted by both EPA and CARB uses gasoline meeting the various fuel parameters for different components, like RVP and lead, that are specified in the certification test fuel regulations. A comparison of the regulatory specifications for test fuel for the two programs shows that California fuel has generally more stringent specifications than federal test fuel. Federal RVP and sulfur specifications are not as restrictive or stringent as CARB’s specifications, with federal test fuel allowing up to 1000 3 ppm sulfur and 8.7-9.2 psi RVP, while CARB limits these two specifications to 30-40 ppm sulfur and 6.7-7.0 psi RVP. Both the compliance testing conducted by EPA and emissions testing conducted during the certification process by the manufacturers use a test fuel meeting EPA’s test fuel specifications. Although the specifications cover a wide variety of fuels, EPA’s test fuels have generally had a consistent composition over time, mainly for purposes of testing consistency and correlation with other test facilities. Manufacturers use similar fuels in their certification testing as well. Federal test fuel has

perform certification testing, even though both agencies have the discretion in their regulations to perform compliance and certification testing on any fuels that meet the specifications for test fuels. EPA has historically considered that a light-duty vehicle is in compliance with the in-use emissions standards that it is certified to if it is tested after in-use operation on commercially available fuels and it meets the emissions standard test when tested using Federal test fuel. This is similar to what happens in the certification process. California uses a similar approach to compliance testing. Although at this time CARB’s test fuel specifications more closely match in-use fuel specifications, given its restrictions on in-use fuels. Manufacturers have expressed concern about certifying CFVs using federal test fuels if the tests are performed using sulfur levels higher than normally found. This is because of the current uncertainty about the emissions impact of higher sulfur levels on emissions results. There are several test programs currently historically been a low sulfur fuel. Both EPA and CARB practices allow in-use compliance testing using the same kind of fuel used to

vehicle manufacturers are concerned about the potential liability in certifying a CFV using federal test fuels other than indolene. Fleet operators are interested in a wide selection of CFVs, including those that can lawfully be operated on commercially available gasoline, such as conventional and reformulated gasoline. At this initial stage in implementation of the CFV fleet programs, EPA believes it is important to provide an incentive for vehicle manufacturers to produce and certify CFVs that can be operated by fleets on commercially available gasoline. In order to provide such an incentive, EPA is interpreting “clean alternative fuel” to include commercially available gasoline, where the CFV is certified using gasolines that meet the various federal certification requirements. This includes an emissions deterioration procedure involving vehicle operation using commercially available fuel underway to generate data to resolve this technical issue. As noted above, there is no sales or production mandate on manufacturers, and

(or an alternative durability program that provides comparable emissions deterioration estimates), and emissions testing using test fuel that meets the test fuel specifications. As in the past, EPA will continue to use fuels with sulfur levels no greater than 40 ppm for certification and in-use compliance testing of these CFVs. Under this interpretation, a CFV will be considered to comply in-use with the applicable CFV standards, after operation on some commercially available gasoline, if it meets the CFV standards when tested on Federal test fuel. Compliance with the CFV standards “when using commercially available gasoline” will mean compliance with the CFV standards using Federal test fuel after operation in-use on commercially available gasoline.4

This applies to CFVs the same approach that has been used in the past to determine in-use compliance with applicable emissions standards after operation on commercially available gasoline, and mirrors the role the test fuel and commercially available gasoline play in the certification process. 42

Avgas Aff -- A-to Topicality – “Lifting a Barrier not Topical, Plan must be a Cash Flow” ( ) Counter-interpretation – the plan must lift a direct legal barrier that blocks alternative energy a)

Equipment Certifications and Renewable Access laws are incentives

Diehl ‘7

(Rustin P. Diehl -- Staff Member, Journal of Land, Resources & Environmental Law – lexis)

Some of the policy incentives encouraging the use of renewable energies include: construction and design policies, contractor licensing, equipment certifications, generation disclosure rules, net metering rules, renewables portfolio set asides, required utility green power option, and solar and wind access laws. 57 In addition to these policy incentives, many states have adopted portfolio mandates or portfolio standards, which require certain percentages of energy come from renewable sources. 58 b)

Lifting regulatory obstacles is an incentive National Pollution Prevention Roundtable 2000

(A White Paper by the National Pollution Prevention Roundtable’s Research and Technology Transfer Workgroup Discussing Government’s Role in Pollution Prevention Technology Verification January -http://www.p2.org/workgroup/research/etv.html)

These different efforts by government agencies are helping to create incentives that push the prevention technology development market.

Incentives include:

•

Removing regulatory barriers to encourage resource conservation (zero water–discharge);

•

Encouraging (regulatory relief) companies to exceed compliance (Project XL);

• Encouraging source reduction strategies (facility wide planning, chemical use–reporting, materials accounting) over end of pipe controls; •

Focusing attention on multimedia regulatory permitting and compliance activities;

• Providing technical resources and assistance (on site assistance, support focused technology development and product research activities); •

Expanding clearinghouse activities;

•

Encouraging total cost accounting methods;

•

Applying strong environmental management systems; and

•

Acknowledging firms that move beyond compliance

( ) We meet the counter-interpretation The plan lifts a direct prohibition on ethanol in aviation sector.

43

Avgas Aff -- A-to T – “Lifting a Barrier not Topical, Plan must be a Cash Flow” cont’ ( ) Reasons to Prefer

a) Resolutional accuracy and education – they insert the word “financial” before the word “incentives” without producing exclusive ev. Our Diehl and Bettie card ev prove they erode knowledge about an entire group of “policy incentives”. They’re also contrived – meaning that the Aff could never win.

b) We provide the most direct Affs – legalizing on face has the fewest steps and allows the Aff no wiggle room to duck-back to fuel efficiency – this enhances neg ground.

c) Quality of ground for both teams – Tax beaks and cash flow happen now – rendering the mechanism nonunique. This hurts both teams. These Affs also lack a Federal Key warrant – jacking Aff ground.

d) Reasonable limits -- roughly the same number of Aff mechanisms under either interpretation Beattie ‘5

(Kristin M. Beattie -- Interdisciplinary Engineering and Management, Honors Program Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY – montor and supervising co-author, Dr. Fredric Menz Professor, Department of Economics, Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY -- Renewable Energy in the United States: Policy Effectiveness and Economic Issues -www.clarkson.edu/honors/research/summer_papers/Beattie-Kristin.doc)

While public opinion polls repeatedly reveal customer interests in purchasing renewable power even if it costs more than nonrenewable power, only a small percentage of customers follow through with that interest. A reason for this is that green power development faces many barriers in the United States, including regulatory, economic, and institutional barriers. Policies enacted to promote renewable energy should be attempts to remove these barriers. There are many different incentive programs that exist in different states to promote the use of renewable energy technologies. The three main categories of policies to promote green power are financial incentives, volunteer and outreach programs, and rules and regulations. The financial incentives include personal income tax exemptions, corporate tax exemptions, sales tax exemptions, property tax exemptions, rebate programs, grant programs, loan programs, industry recruitment programs, leasing/lease purchase programs, and production incentives. There are currently 200 financial incentives in place that promote renewable energy in the United States (DSIRE, 2003). Volunteer and Outreach Programs include green pricing programs, voluntary installer certification programs, and outreach programs. At present, there are 201 volunteer and outreach programs in place to promote renewable energy in the United States (DSIRE, 2003). Rules, regulations, and policies include public benefits funds, generation disclosure rules, renewable portfolio standards, net metering rules, line extension analysis requirements, contractor licensing requirements, equipment certifications, solar access laws, construction and design standards, green power purchasing/aggregation, and mandatory utility green power options. There are currently 216 rules, regulations, and policies

in place to promote renewable energy in the United States (DSIRE, 2003).

( ) Direct nature of the plan checks We don’t justify Affs that remove indirect legal barriers. The plan is a far-cry from lifting fossil fuel subsidies.

( ) Reasonability – T should not be about “competing interpretations” – that incentives procedurals at the expense of topicspecific clash and education.

44

Avgas Aff -- A-to T – “Lifting a Barrier not Topical, Plan must be a Cash Flow” cont’ ( ) Predictability checks – the EPA expressly defines broader fuel standards as an “incentive” EPA ’98

(Jane Armstrong, EPA Director of Vehicles Programs and Compliance Division, Office of Mobile Sources -- Certification to Clean-Fuel Vehicle Standards – Feb 3rd -http://www.epa.gov/OMS/cert/dearmfr/vpcd9802.pdf)

A clean alternative fuel is defined as “any fuel ... used in a clean-fuel vehicle that complies with the standards and requirements applicable to such vehicle under this title when using such fuel1.” These requirements mean that fleet owners will only get credit under a CFFP if they purchase and use a vehicle which will Section 246 calls for fleet operators to operate their clean-fuel vehicles on “clean alternative fuels” in the covered nonattainment areas.

operate on a clean alternative fuel for that vehicle. Based on limited vehicle choice for fleet owners, due in part to the limited availability of fuels that qualify as clean alternative fuels, EPA has announced a one year delay of the start date for the CFFP to the 1999 model year. The CAA prohibits EPA from mandating that manufacturers certify and produce clean-fuel vehicles for the

manufacturers and fleet operators have requested guidance on whether commercially available gasoline, including conventional and reformulated gasoline, would be considered a “clean alternative fuel” for a CFV certified using the federal certification procedures, including the federal test fuel specifications. A review of EPA’s current certification and compliance procedures is helpful in responding to this issue. CFFP. Vehicle

EPA’s certification procedures require demonstration of the mechanical and exhaust emission deterioration characteristic of each engine family. Manufacturers, when certifying vehicles to meet federal emission standards, use commercially-available federal fuels when accumulating mileage and federal test fuel when performing emissions testing. The deterioration demonstration is shown by testing 3 at least one vehicle per engine family at multiple intervals for the useful life of the vehicle (100,000 miles for light-duty vehicles). Manufacturers then mathematically combine the results of these tests to determine the exhaust emission deterioration factor for each pollutant. If a manufacturer were to use commercially available federal fuel during the 100,000 mile accumulation , the absolute emission levels at each test point would likely be higher than if commercially available California fuel were used. However, the slope of the deterioration would be very similar because a standardized test fuel is used, not a commercial fuel. EPA recognizes that some manufacturers wishing to certify 1999 vehicles according to the provisions in this guidance document have already begun or completed their emissions deterioration testing using commercially available California fuels. Therefore, EPA will allow the deterioration factors generated by each vehicle subject to the 1 42

of 40 CFR 86.11394. 2 3 2 provisions in this document to be used without having to demonstrate a new exhaust deterioration on a second fuel based on previous EPA policy regarding durability carryover of California data. The provisions of 40 CFR 86.096-24(f), Advisory Circular 17F, and the January 10, 1994, “Dear Manufacturer Letter” 94-01 provide the basis for EPA to accept the carryover and/or carryacross of data from California only engine families. In the “Dear Manufacturer Letter,” 94-01, EPA identifies three specific considerations for the carryover and carryacross of California durability data. These considerations are: 1. 2. 3. Effects on exhaust emission levels of the California fuel and test procedures. Effects on the deterioration of mileage and accumulation using Phase 2 fuel, and The possibility of linecrossing using EPA test fuel and test procedures. For the purpose of CFV’s, each request to carryover California LEV duability data must address items 2) and 3) when the durability service accumulation mileage was completed using Phase 2 fuel. EPA believes durability carryover can be approved without significant risk to emissions performance if a manufacturer can demonstrate that thermal degradation of the catalyst does not increase when using non-Phase 2 fuel. One method for showing this is provided in the appendix of A/C 17F. The manufacturer must also provide a technical rationale for concluding that the linecrossing criteria of §86.094-(28) (a) (4) (B) would have been satisfied if the vehicle had operated on non-Phase 2 fuel during mileage accumulation and the actual emission testing been conducted using a fuel meeting the criteria of §86.113-94(a). For vehicles that completed all service accumulation mileage on non-phase 2 fuel the criteria of item 2) will have already been satisfied. For item 3), however, the actual emission testing would have been conducted using Phase 2 fuel. Therefore, the manufacturer must provide the technical rationale for concluding that the linecrossing criteria would have been satisfied if the emission testing had been conducted using the fuel meeting the criteria of §86.113USC § 7581 (1) Clean Fuel Implementation MEMORANDUM, from Margo Oge to Region Directors, May 22, 1997 Each exhaust emission test is conducted using a standardized fuel meeting the requirements

94(a). Confirmatory compliance testing conducted by both EPA and CARB uses gasoline meeting the various fuel parameters for different components, like RVP and lead, that are specified in the certification test fuel regulations. A comparison of the regulatory specifications for test fuel for the two programs shows that California fuel has generally more stringent specifications than federal test fuel. Federal RVP and sulfur specifications are not as restrictive or stringent as CARB’s specifications, with federal test fuel allowing up to 1000 3 ppm sulfur and 8.7-9.2 psi RVP, while CARB limits these two specifications to 30-40 ppm sulfur and 6.7-7.0 psi RVP. Both the compliance testing conducted by EPA and emissions testing conducted during the certification process by the manufacturers use a test fuel meeting EPA’s test fuel specifications. Although the specifications cover a wide variety of fuels, EPA’s test fuels have generally had a consistent composition over time, mainly for purposes of testing consistency and correlation with other test facilities. Manufacturers use similar fuels in their certification testing as well. Federal test fuel has

perform certification testing, even though both agencies have the discretion in their regulations to perform compliance and certification testing on any fuels that meet the specifications for test fuels. EPA has historically considered that a light-duty vehicle is in compliance with the in-use emissions standards that it is certified to if it is tested after in-use operation on commercially available fuels and it meets the emissions standard test when tested using Federal test fuel. This is similar to what happens in the certification process. California uses a similar approach to compliance testing. Although at this time CARB’s test fuel specifications more closely match in-use fuel specifications, given its restrictions on in-use fuels. Manufacturers have expressed concern about certifying CFVs using federal test fuels if the tests are performed using sulfur levels higher than normally found. This is because of the current uncertainty about the emissions impact of higher sulfur levels on emissions results. There are several test programs currently historically been a low sulfur fuel. Both EPA and CARB practices allow in-use compliance testing using the same kind of fuel used to

vehicle manufacturers are concerned about the potential liability in certifying a CFV using federal test fuels other than indolene. Fleet operators are interested in a wide selection of CFVs, including those that can lawfully be operated on commercially available gasoline, such as conventional and reformulated gasoline. At this initial stage in implementation of the CFV fleet programs, EPA believes it is important to provide an incentive for vehicle manufacturers to produce and certify CFVs that can be operated by fleets on commercially available gasoline. In order to provide such an incentive, EPA is interpreting “clean alternative fuel” to include commercially available gasoline, where the CFV is certified using gasolines that meet the various federal certification requirements. This includes an emissions deterioration procedure involving vehicle operation using commercially available fuel underway to generate data to resolve this technical issue. As noted above, there is no sales or production mandate on manufacturers, and

(or an alternative durability program that provides comparable emissions deterioration estimates), and emissions testing using test fuel that meets the test fuel specifications. As in the past, EPA will continue to use fuels with sulfur levels no greater than 40 ppm for certification and in-use compliance testing of these CFVs. Under this interpretation, a CFV will be considered to comply in-use with the applicable CFV standards, after operation on some commercially available gasoline, if it meets the CFV standards when tested on Federal test fuel. Compliance with the CFV standards “when using commercially available gasoline” will mean compliance with the CFV standards using Federal test fuel after operation in-use on commercially available gasoline.4

This applies to CFVs the same approach that has been used in the past to determine in-use compliance with applicable emissions standards after operation on commercially available gasoline, and mirrors the role the test fuel and commercially available gasoline play in the certification process.

45

Avgas Aff -- A-to T – “Plan must be a Cash Flow” – Backlines/1AR extensions

( ) Our interpretation excludes market-based incentives Thus, we’re a much narrower set of mechanisms, and we never delimit to negative incentives. PPRC ‘8

(The Pacific Northwest Pollution Prevention Resource Center (PPRC) is a non-profit organization that is the Northwest’s leading source of high quality, unbiased pollution prevention information. Economic Incentives: Types of Economic Incentives – July 1st was the most recent update -http://www.pprc.org/hubs/subsection.cfm?hub=1003&subsec=12&nav=12&CFID=895734&CFTOKEN=15411522)

Although technically not falling under the definition of market-based incentives, it is useful to discuss permit and other regulatory incentives. Permit incentives come in the form of expedited permitting, increased permit flexibility, multimedia permitting, and self-certification permit programs, among many different options. Also, experimental regulatory incentives in the form of "grace period" laws were being explored in the mid-1990s. Grace period laws are designed to more clearly focus limited public resources on serious violations. When a "minor" violation is discovered, the relevant environmental agency must provide the violator with a "notice to comply" or a "notice of violation." The notice identifies the violation and provides a time period in which the violator must come into compliance.

( ) Forcing incentives to be economic is far broader – the EPA admits this includes many more mechanisms. EPA ‘1

(Environmental Protection Agency -- Office of Policy, Economics, and Innovation Office of the Administrator of the National Center for Environmental Economics -- The United States Experience with Economic Incentives for Protecting the Environment -http://yosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/eermfile.nsf/vwAN/EE-0216B-01.pdf/$File/EE-0216B-01.pdf)

II. Definition of Economic Incentives For the purposes of this report, economic incentives are defined broadly as instruments that use financial means to motivate polluters to reduce the health and environmental risks posed by their facilities, processes, or products. These incentives provide monetary and near-monetary rewards for polluting less and impose costs of various types for polluting more, thus supplying the necessary motivation to polluters. This approach provides an opportunity to address sources of pollution that are not easily controlled with traditional forms of regulation as well as providing a reason for polluters to improve upon existing regulatory requirements. Under traditional regulatory approaches, polluters have little or no incentive to cut emissions further or to make their products less harmful once they have satisfied the regulatory requirements. The definition of economic incentives used here is quite broad. As such, a great many instruments and programs could be included in this review. By necessity the report focuses on the most significant federal programs and a representative sampling of activities at the state and local level.

46

Avgas –Aff -- A-to pure States Cplan

( ) Rollback –

a) Cplan violate Airline Pre-emption Clause.

Hand ‘95 (Geoffery -- The author holds commercial and flight instructor pilot certificates, and is a member of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association and a student member of the Lawyer-Pilots Bar Association. University of San Francisco Law Review – Spring)

B. Federal Preemption Doctrine

The federal government has the power under the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution to preempt a state's authority to make laws in a field in which the Constitution has given Congress the power to act. 136 This Constitution, and the Laws of the United States which shall be made in Pursuance thereof; and all Treaties made, or which shall be made, under the Authority of the United States, shall be the supreme Law of the Land; and the Judges in every State shall be bound thereby, any Thing in the Constitution or Laws of any State to the Contrary notwithstanding. 137 This means that where Congress has laid down the law of the land, there can be no room for the states to make laws which are in conflict. 138 Because air commerce is - by its very nature - interstate, Congress has jurisdiction, under the Commerce Clause, 139 over virtually all aspects of aviation regulation. A state cannot promulgate aircraft design rules because that authority is entrusted by Congress to the FAA under the Federal Aviation Act of 1958. 140 [*760]

b) It would get shot down – other rulings confirm the hefty Federal Presumption.

Hand ‘95 (Geoffery -- The author holds commercial and flight instructor pilot certificates, and is a member of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association and a student member of the Lawyer-Pilots Bar Association. University of San Francisco Law Review – Spring)

Courts have recognized that Congress has preempted a field in which the federal scheme of regulation is so extensive that the states were not meant to supplement it. That is, where the extent of federal regulations in a particular field is complete, the states are preempted from enacting legislation within that field. For example, in French v. Pan Am Express, Inc., 148 the court addressed the issue of whether a state statute regulating employee drug testing was preempted by the Federal Aviation Act. 149 The court noted that the Act gives the Secretary of Transportation (Secretary) the power to promulgate "reasonable rules and regulations governing, in the interest of safety," the maximum working hours of airmen. 150 Furthermore, the court noted that the Act specifies the federal government's role in pilot certification "in great detail." 151 Finally, the court looked at the extensive regulations 152 the Secretary had promulgated to conclude that Congress intended to preempt the field of pilot regulation. 153 In another case, City

47

of Burbank v. Lockheed Air Terminal, Inc., 154 the Supreme Court considered whether a municipal ordinance placing a late-night curfew on jet flights at a local airport was unconstitutional. 155 The Court examined the extent of noise regulation in the Act, and the legislative history regarding noise amendments to the Act. 156 Additionally, the Court noted that the FAA's Administrator had adopted numerous regulations governing noise standards of federally certified aircraft. 157 Concluding that the pervasive regulation of aircraft noise by Congress preempted the local ordinance, Justice Douglas noted: Federal control is intensive and exclusive. Planes do not wander about in the sky like vagrant clouds. They move only by federal permission, subject to federal inspection, in the hands of federally certified personnel and under an intricate system of federal commands. The moment a ship taxis onto the runway it is caught up in an elaborate and detailed system of controls. 158 [*762]

48

Avgas –Aff -- A-to pure States Cplan cont’

( ) States have less experience, and the precedent of State Regulation would shatter the aviation economy.

Hand ‘95 (Geoffery -- The author holds commercial and flight instructor pilot certificates, and is a member of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association and a student member of the Lawyer-Pilots Bar Association. University of San Francisco Law Review – Spring – Ellipses in original)

The Department of Commerce has perfected [an inspection agency], composed of especially trained personnel, and has made results uniform throughout its entire inspection and engineering staff. Its requirements are only the minimum consistent with safety in the operation of aircraft...

Any modification of these requirements by the states would not be in the interests of either intrastate or interstate ownership or operation, and would, in the end, affect unfavorably the general advancement of aviation. 50

Likewise, the President of the NASAO and Director of Aeronautics for Ohio, Fred Smith, delivered similar words in his address at the Fourth Annual Meeting of the NASAO:

It can be seen readily that any ambitious attempt of a state to set up licensing, inspection and rating services independently of the federal government would result in prohibitive costs. It is not only impractical from the stand point of cost to the administration, but also highly undesirable because of the lack of uniformity which would undoubtedly result were every state to assume this burden itself...

...

... Insofar as the licensing of ... equipment is concerned, ... so long as the federal government is willing to continue its work in this field, I see no reason for any supplemental activity on the part of the state except to make it mandatory that all aircraft and airmen operating within the state be licensed by the federal Bureau, and that the operations should be in accordance with federal regulations...

I see no need whatever for any state to cook up a lot of new regulations to inflict upon the aviation public... 51 [*749]

49

Avgas –Aff -- A-to pure States Cplan cont’

( ) This has 2 implications

a)

worse solvency – States literally have no expertise with GA regulation.

b)

GA is key to the US economy.

NCARC ‘97 (National Civil Aviation Review Commission U.S. Department of Commerce Auditorium-- May 28, 1997 -http://www.faa.gov/ncarc/testimony/nbaa-te.htm)

NBAA has been and remains especially troubled by a proposal by President Clinton that would target our community for new and potentially damaging taxes or fees. The proposal exhibits a fundamental misunderstanding of "business aviation" and the vital role it plays in business productivity and business revenues (and the tax revenues they generate) of American companies. And, it seems inappropriate to consider a proposal that would divert aviation revenues to other programs. It is particularly puzzling that President Clinton would move in this direction given his previous comments about the business aviation community in a 1992 letter addressed to NBAA, which states:

"As Governor of Arkansas and as presidential candidate, I have been grateful for and dependent on every aspect of this important industry, including airplanes, helicopters, FBOs, fuelers, and others. General aviation has provided me with a flying office and conference room, a sleeping coach, and a means of covering many, many thousands of miles to carry my message of change to America."

"General aviation is critical to the health and growth of our economy. From aircraft manufacturing to business flight departments to FBOs and fuelers, general aviation contributes greatly to our economy. It provides jobs, creates high technology export products contributing to the balance of trade, and improves the efficiency and productivity of businesses through safe and efficient transportation of people and materials by air to all regions of the country and the globe. Success in rebuilding our economy depends on giving workers and businesses the tools,

50

Avgas –Aff -- A-to pure States Cplan cont’

The impact is nuclear war

51

Avgas –Aff -- A-to pure States Cplan – 1AR Rollback Extensions

( ) It would get shot down – if noise regulations were sufficient for pre-emption, then design regulations would be as well.

Hand ‘95 (Geoffery -- The author holds commercial and flight instructor pilot certificates, and is a member of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association and a student member of the Lawyer-Pilots Bar Association. University of San Francisco Law Review – Spring)

If the federal scheme governing aircraft noise and pilot safety is sufficiently pervasive to preempt state laws, then there is no reason why the Federal Aviation Act would not also preempt state laws in the area of aircraft design and safety. Federal standards governing aircraft design are several times more voluminous than those affecting aircraft noise. 351 "The aviation industry is one of the most, if not the most, government regulated industries in the world. An analysis of the Federal Aviation Act, which governs the design and manufacture of aircraft, reveals quite explicit language in the requirements for testing of the entire aircraft." 352 The Cleveland court took notice of both French and Burbank, but dismissed them as inapplicable given the Cipollone decision and the express preemption clause in the ADA. 353 The Cleveland court's finding that the express preemption clause in the ADA rules out the possibility that Congress impliedly preempted other areas governed in the Act is contrary to all post-ADA cases finding implied preemption, including French. If the Tenth Circuit's application of Cipollone is correct, then Cipollone must reverse the cases finding implied preemption under the Federal Aviation Act. 354 At the very least, Cleveland's holding sets up a conflict among the circuits: The Tenth Circuit has concluded that the express preemption clause in the Federal Aviation Act precludes the possibility of a finding of implied preemption under the act, 355 whereas the First Circuit has found that the express preemption clause has no bearing on the issue of implied preemption. 356 [*788] The Supreme Court should address this split at the next available opportunity. 357

( ) Cplan would get shot down -- the Federal Government has pre-empted State regulation of aviation.

Hand ‘95 (Geoffery -- The author holds commercial and flight instructor pilot certificates, and is a member of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association and a student member of the Lawyer-Pilots Bar Association. University of San Francisco Law Review – Spring)

To understand the mandates of the Federal Aviation Act and the premise that Congress, in order to create a uniform body of rules across the several states, has preempted the field of aircraft design and safety, it is necessary to examine the history of aeronautical regulation and cases interpreting federal preemption. This section examines the various regulatory acts, the jurisprudence of implied preemption, the procedure followed by the FAA and aircraft manufacturers in certifying aircraft, and the role of the National Transportation Safety Board in investigating accidents and recommending aircraft design changes.

52

53

Avgas –Aff -- A-to pure States Cplan – 1AR Rollback Extensions cont’

( ) State Regulation over General Aviation would get shot down.

NBAA v. City of Naples

2001

(NATIONAL BUSINESS AVIATION ASSOCIATION, INC. and GENERALAVIATION MANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION, Plaintiffs, -vs- CITY OF NAPLES AIRPORT AUTHORITY, August 8, 2001 -- http://www.aci-na.org/docs/Naples%20new.PDF)

Transportation Law: Air Transportation: State & Local Regulation It is undisputed that the federal government, through the Federal Aviation Act, 49 U.S.C.S. § 40101 et seq., and elsewhere, has pre-empted certain areas related to aviation, both expressly and impliedly. State regulation of the airspace over the United States is forbidden by 49 U.S.C.S. § 40103(a), which declares that the United States Government has exclusive sovereignty of airspace of the United States. Similarly, 49 U.S.C.S. § 41713(b)(1), titled "Preemption," establishes that except as provided in this subsection, a state, political subdivision of a state, or political authority of at least two states may not enact or enforce a law, regulation, or other provision having the force and effect of law related to a price, route, or service of an air carrier n4 that may provide air transportation under this subpart.

54

Avgas –Aff -- A-to Lopez Cplan (when Fed Lands are not delegated)

( ) Airline Econ disad

a)

Uniqueness-Link and solvency deficit – States don’t regulate now, and introducing 50 State regulators would jack the Airline Econ.

Hand ‘95 (Geoffery -- The author holds commercial and flight instructor pilot certificates, and is a member of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association and a student member of the Lawyer-Pilots Bar Association. University of San Francisco Law Review – Spring – Ellipses in original)

The Department of Commerce has perfected [an inspection agency], composed of especially trained personnel, and has made results uniform throughout its entire inspection and engineering staff. Its requirements are only the minimum consistent with safety in the operation of aircraft...

Any modification of these requirements by the states would not be in the interests of either intrastate or interstate ownership or operation, and would, in the end, affect unfavorably the general advancement of aviation. 50

Likewise, the President of the NASAO and Director of Aeronautics for Ohio, Fred Smith, delivered similar words in his address at the Fourth Annual Meeting of the NASAO:

It can be seen readily that any ambitious attempt of a state to set up licensing, inspection and rating services independently of the federal government would result in prohibitive costs. It is not only impractical from the stand point of cost to the administration, but also highly undesirable because of the lack of uniformity which would undoubtedly result were every state to assume this burden itself...

... Insofar as the licensing of ... equipment is concerned, ... so long as the federal government is willing to continue its work in this field, I see no reason for any supplemental activity on the part of the state except to make it mandatory that all aircraft and airmen operating within the state be licensed by the federal Bureau, and that the operations should be in accordance with federal regulations...

I see no need whatever for any state to cook up a lot of new regulations to inflict upon the aviation public... 51 [*749]

(Note: elipses in original)

55

Avgas –Aff -- A-to Lopez Cplan (when Fed Lands are not delegated) cont’

b)

Uniformity does not solve our disad – the mere prospect of distinct regulators will cause the industry to price based on worst-case scenarios.

Hand ‘95 (Geoffery -- The author holds commercial and flight instructor pilot certificates, and is a member of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association and a student member of the Lawyer-Pilots Bar Association. University of San Francisco Law Review – Spring – Ellipses in original)

Likewise, the multitude of state standards creates unpredictability for manufacturers. Federal certification and design regulations give manufacturers guidelines from which to build and price planes, but anomalous jury verdicts, based on the diverse laws of the fifty states, circumvents the congressional purpose of uniformity behind the regulations. Unable to predict liability, aircraft manufacturers' insurance companies will base premiums on the worst possible scenarios. 369 The high cost of insurance could boost the price of airplanes to the point where production of general aviation aircraft will practically cease. 370 Having multiple standards of liability destroys the uniformity embodied in the Federal Aviation Act and comes at a time when American general aviation manufacturers 371 are caught in the chokehold of a weak economy and product liability lawsuits.

c)

Liability costs are key to jacking the general aviation sector.

Hand ‘95 (Geoffery -- The author holds commercial and flight instructor pilot certificates, and is a member of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association and a student member of the Lawyer-Pilots Bar Association. University of San Francisco Law Review – Spring – Ellipses in original)

Looked at more broadly, the problem lies with the lack of uniformity in aviation. Uniformity of law allows both plaintiffs and defendants to assess their rights and liabilities to settle their disputes in a more efficient manner. The legal wrangling over fora and choice of law in aviation accident cases creates costly delays and uncertainty 284 and vilifies the legal profession in the eyes of the general aviation community. The lack of uniformity leads to inconsistent results in product liability cases, which further increases litigation costs for aircraft manufacturers. Increased legal costs lead to increased liability insurance premiums. The end result is that aircraft become so expensive that they are priced out the market. The statistics over the last fifteen years are proof that liability costs have played a substantial role in deteriorating the field of general aviation in the United States. Fortunately, the problems faced by the general aviation industry have not gone unnoticed in Congress, and cases like Cleveland have served to highlight the lack of uniformity in aviation law.

56

Avgas –Aff -- A-to Lopez Cplan (when Fed Lands are not delegated) cont’

This is key to the US economy.

NCARC ‘97 (National Civil Aviation Review Commission U.S. Department of Commerce Auditorium-- May 28, 1997 -http://www.faa.gov/ncarc/testimony/nbaa-te.htm)

NBAA has been and remains especially troubled by a proposal by President Clinton that would target our community for new and potentially damaging taxes or fees. The proposal exhibits a fundamental misunderstanding of "business aviation" and the vital role it plays in business productivity and business revenues (and the tax revenues they generate) of American companies. And, it seems inappropriate to consider a proposal that would divert aviation revenues to other programs. It is particularly puzzling that President Clinton would move in this direction given his previous comments about the business aviation community in a 1992 letter addressed to NBAA, which states:

"As Governor of Arkansas and as presidential candidate, I have been grateful for and dependent on every aspect of this important industry, including airplanes, helicopters, FBOs, fuelers, and others. General aviation has provided me with a flying office and conference room, a sleeping coach, and a means of covering many, many thousands of miles to carry my message of change to America."

"General aviation is critical to the health and growth of our economy. From aircraft manufacturing to business flight departments to FBOs and fuelers, general aviation contributes greatly to our economy. It provides jobs, creates high technology export products contributing to the balance of trade, and improves the efficiency and productivity of businesses through safe and efficient transportation of people and materials by air to all regions of the country and the globe. Success in rebuilding our economy depends on giving workers and businesses the tools,

The impact is the death of billions.

57

58

Avgas –Aff -- A-to Lopez Cplan (when Fed Lands are not delegated) cont’

( ) Federal Lands is a huge solvency deficit – over 2000 airports.

Anderson ‘99 (John H. Anderson, Jr., Director, Transportation Issues, Resources, Community, and Economic Development Division -- GAO Reports – June 9th)

Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee: We are here today to discuss the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) oversight of and the funding for capital development at general aviation airports. The federal government has made financial grants or transferred federal land to about 2,000 general aviation airports. For many communities, a general aviation airport is their primary access to air transportation, and general aviation airports can provide economic benefits to communities by attracting new employers to the area. Like commercial service airports, general aviation airports are subject to FAA's oversight and must compete with commercial airports for federal funding from FAA's Airport Improvement Program.

59

Avgas –Aff -- A-to “The Cplan functionally delegates authority to the States over Federal Lands”

( ) The cplan does not functionally delegate authority over Federal Land – that is just not how law works.

After Lopez, the State of Michigan was allowed to regulate handguns in Michigan, but not in Ohio. The scope of the cplan is limited to current geographic parameters.

Here’s proof that when the law is silent – delegations to the States are NOT presumed to be inclusive of Federal Lands:

From the Text of the ENDANGERED SPECIES CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT ACT OF ‘95 (http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/cpquery/?&db_id=cp104&r_n=hr778.104&sel=TOC_176085&)

SEC. 508. DELEGATION OF AUTHORITY TO STATES.

Section 5 is further amended by adding at the end the following new subsection:

`(n) DELEGATION TO STATE- (1) At the request of a State, the Secretary shall delegate either under a cooperative management plan or a delegation agreement as provided in section 6, to the State the authority to develop and implement conservation objectives and plans for a species or group of species determined to be endangered species or threatened species, unless the Secretary determines that the State lacks authority and capability to carry out the requirements of this Act. If the Secretary determines that the State lacks authority and capability, the Secretary shall notify the Governor of the State of the specific concerns and specify measures necessary to address those concerns and provide the Governor with the opportunity to take the actions necessary to address those concerns. `(2) The Secretary shall monitor the actions of the State to develop and implement a conservation objective and conservation plan. The Secretary shall assist the States in coordinating their actions with other affected States where the species may occur. `(3) If the Secretary determines that the State is not in compliance with this Act, the cooperative management agreement, or the delegation agreement, the Secretary shall so notify the State and shall specify the areas of noncompliance. The States shall have 60 days in which to respond and in which to come into compliance. If the State fails to adequately respond or to come into compliance, the Secretary is authorized to resume responsibility for the development and implementation of the conservation objective and plan.'. TITLE VI--HABITAT PROTECTIONS SEC. 601. FEDERAL BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY RESERVE. Section 5A, as redesignated by section 501 of this Act, is amended to read as follows: `SEC. 5A. PROTECTION OF HABITAT. `(a) ESTABLISHMENT OF NATIONAL BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY RESERVE- `(1) IN GENERAL- There is hereby established a National Biological Diversity Reserve (hereinafter in this Act referred to as the `Reserve'). The Reserve shall be composed of units of Federal and State lands designated in accordance with paragraph (2) and managed in accordance with paragraph (3). `(2) DESIGNATION OF RESERVE UNITS- (A) Not later than 18 months after the date of enactment of the Endangered Species Conservation and Management Act of 1995, the Secretary of the Interior and the Secretary of Agriculture shall designate to the Reserve by regulation those units of the national conservation systems which are within the jurisdiction of the Secretary concerned and which the Secretary determines would contribute to biological diversity in accordance with the provisions of this Act. The term `national conservation systems' means wholly federally owned lands within the National Park System, the National Wildlife Refuge System, or the National Wilderness Preservation System, and wild segments of rivers within the National Wild and Scenic Rivers System. `(B) The Secretary of the Interior shall-- `(i) designate to the Reserve by regulation a unit of State-owned lands if such unit is nominated for designation by the Governor of the State and is managed under State law in accordance with paragraph (3); `(ii) designate to the Reserve by regulation privately owned land that is nominated for designation by the owner of the land, and shall remove such land from the Reserve if the owner requests removal; `(iii) remove from the Reserve by regulation any unit designated pursuant to clause (i) which the Secretary finds is not managed under State law in accordance with paragraph (3); and `(iv) remove from the Reserve any State-owned lands at the request of the Governor of that State. `(C) Designation of a Reserve unit shall not affect any valid existing permit, contract, license, right, right-of-way, access, interest in land, right to use or receive water, or property right. `(3) MANAGEMENT OF THE RESERVE- (A) Each unit of the Reserve may have as a goal the conservation of biological diversity. Such goal shall be supplementary and secondary to other purposes established for such unit by or pursuant to any provision of law applicable to such unit. Management for biological diversity shall not be inconsistent with or diminish other unit purposes, other provisions of law applicable to such unit, and activities which occur or are authorized to occur on such unit. `(B) The manager of each Reserve unit should consistent with paragraph (4) utilize his authority to use active management and recovery measures, including those specified in section 5(b)(2)(A)(vi), and shall conduct a survey to determine the populations of species within the Reserve. `(C) Nothing in this section shall-- `(i) alter, establish, or affect the respective rights of the United States, the States, or any person with respect to any water or water-related right; or `(ii) affect the laws, rules, and regulations pertaining to hunting, fishing, and other lawful wildlife harvest under existing State and Federal laws and Indian treaties. `(D) Within 1 year of the designation of a unit to the Reserve, the manager of such unit shall complete, and the Secretary concerned shall make available to the public by notice in the Federal Register, an inventory of the species composing

60

OTHER FEDERAL LANDS- Nothing in this Act shall be construed as limiting the authority of the Secretary of the Interior or the Secretary of Agriculture to take such actions as are necessary and authorized by other law to protect, maintain, and enhance biological diversity on other Federal lands not designated to the Reserve the biological diversity within such unit. `(4)

except that, before taking any such action, the Secretary concerned shall make a finding based on the best available scientific and commercial data, that the biological diversity for which such action is proposed is not protected, maintained, or enhanced in whole or substantial part on any unit of the Reserve. Such finding shall be published, along with the reasons therefor in the Federal Register.'.

61

Avgas –Aff -- A-to “The Cplan functionally delegates authority to the States over Federal Lands” cont’

( ) If the States acted in those areas anyway, the Courts would rule with the Aff. This is especially true since Congress created both the DOA and Federal Land titles.

Guide to Government ‘04 (an online service of USA Today -- last updated – December 31st -http://conlaw.usatoday.findlaw.com/constitution/article04/17.html)

Public Lands: Federal and State Powers Thereover

No appropriation of public lands may be made for any purpose except by authority of Congress.295 However, the longcontinued practice of withdrawing land from the public domain by Executive Orders for the purpose of creating Indian reservations has raised an implied delegation of authority from Congress to take such action.296 The comprehensive authority of Congress over public lands includes the power to prescribe the times, conditions, and mode of transfer thereof and to designate the persons to whom the transfer shall be made,297 to declare the dignity and effect of titles emanat ing from the United States,298 to determine the validity of grants which antedate the government's acquisition of the property,299 to exempt lands acquired under the homestead laws from previously contracted debts,300 to withdraw land from settlement and to prohibit grazing thereon,301 to prevent unlawful occupation of public property and to declare what are nuisances, as affecting such property, and provide for their abatement,302 and to prohibit the introduction of liquor on lands purchased and used for an Indian colony.303 Congress may limit the disposition of the public domain to a manner consistent with its views of public policy. A restriction inserted in a grant of public lands to a municipality which prohibited the grantee from selling or leasing to a private corporation the right to sell or sublet water or electric energy supplied by the facilities constructed on such land was held valid.304

Unanimously upholding a federal law to protect wild-roaming horses and burros on federal lands, the Court restated the applicable principles governing Congress' power under this clause. It empowers Congress to act as both proprietor and legislature over the public domain; Congress has complete power to make those ''needful rules'' which in its discretion it determines are necessary. When Congress acts with respect to those lands covered by the clause, its legislation overrides conflicting state laws.305 Absent action by Congress, however, States may in some instances exercise some jurisdiction over activities on federal lands.306

( ) Implications

62

a)

Rule that the Cplan is written wrong – giving us a solvency deficit.

b)

If you decide the Neg tries to regulate these areas anyway, Courts will strike it down. The Court itself does not even have the authority to make that delegation.

c)

Presumption should rest heavily with us, we have the only ev on how vagueness would be seen by the judicial branch.

63

Avgas –Aff -- Avgas -- A-to Lopez Cplan (when Fed Lands are delegated)

( ) Airline Econ disad

a)

Uniqueness-Link and solvency deficit – States don’t regulate now, and introducing 50 State regulators would jack the Airline Econ.

Hand ‘95 (Geoffery -- The author holds commercial and flight instructor pilot certificates, and is a member of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association and a student member of the Lawyer-Pilots Bar Association. University of San Francisco Law Review – Spring – Ellipses in original)

The Department of Commerce has perfected [an inspection agency], composed of especially trained personnel, and has made results uniform throughout its entire inspection and engineering staff. Its requirements are only the minimum consistent with safety in the operation of aircraft...

Any modification of these requirements by the states would not be in the interests of either intrastate or interstate ownership or operation, and would, in the end, affect unfavorably the general advancement of aviation. 50

Likewise, the President of the NASAO and Director of Aeronautics for Ohio, Fred Smith, delivered similar words in his address at the Fourth Annual Meeting of the NASAO:

It can be seen readily that any ambitious attempt of a state to set up licensing, inspection and rating services independently of the federal government would result in prohibitive costs. It is not only impractical from the stand point of cost to the administration, but also highly undesirable because of the lack of uniformity which would undoubtedly result were every state to assume this burden itself...

...

... Insofar as the licensing of ... equipment is concerned, ... so long as the federal government is willing to continue its work in this field, I see no reason for any supplemental activity on the part of the state except to make it mandatory that all aircraft and airmen operating within the state be licensed by the federal Bureau, and that the operations should be in accordance with federal regulations...

64

I see no need whatever for any state to cook up a lot of new regulations to inflict upon the aviation public... 51 [*749]

65

Avgas –Aff -- Avgas -- A-to Lopez Cplan (when Fed Lands are delegated) cont’

b) Uniformity does not solve our disad – the mere prospect of distinct regulators will cause the industry to price based on worst-case scenarios.

Hand ‘95 (Geoffery -- The author holds commercial and flight instructor pilot certificates, and is a member of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association and a student member of the Lawyer-Pilots Bar Association. University of San Francisco Law Review – Spring – Ellipses in original)

Likewise, the multitude of state standards creates unpredictability for manufacturers. Federal certification and design regulations give manufacturers guidelines from which to build and price planes, but anomalous jury verdicts, based on the diverse laws of the fifty states, circumvents the congressional purpose of uniformity behind the regulations. Unable to predict liability, aircraft manufacturers' insurance companies will base premiums on the worst possible scenarios. 369 The high cost of insurance could boost the price of airplanes to the point where production of general aviation aircraft will practically cease. 370 Having multiple standards of liability destroys the uniformity embodied in the Federal Aviation Act and comes at a time when American general aviation manufacturers 371 are caught in the chokehold of a weak economy and product liability lawsuits.

c) Liability costs are key to jacking the general aviation sector.

Hand ‘95 (Geoffery -- The author holds commercial and flight instructor pilot certificates, and is a member of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association and a student member of the Lawyer-Pilots Bar Association. University of San Francisco Law Review – Spring – Ellipses in original)

Looked at more broadly, the problem lies with the lack of uniformity in aviation. Uniformity of law allows both plaintiffs and defendants to assess their rights and liabilities to settle their disputes in a more efficient manner. The legal wrangling over fora and choice of law in aviation accident cases creates costly delays and uncertainty 284 and vilifies the legal profession in the eyes of the general aviation community. The lack of uniformity leads to inconsistent results in product liability cases, which further increases litigation costs for aircraft manufacturers. Increased legal costs lead to increased liability insurance premiums. The end result is that aircraft become so expensive that they are priced out the market. The statistics over the last fifteen years are proof that liability costs have played a substantial role in deteriorating the field of general aviation in the United States. Fortunately, the problems faced by the general aviation industry have not gone unnoticed in Congress, and cases like Cleveland have served to highlight the lack of uniformity in aviation law.

66

Avgas –Aff -- Avgas -- A-to Lopez Cplan (when Fed Lands are delegated) cont’

This is key to the US economy.

NCARC ‘97 (National Civil Aviation Review Commission U.S. Department of Commerce Auditorium-- May 28, 1997 -http://www.faa.gov/ncarc/testimony/nbaa-te.htm)

NBAA has been and remains especially troubled by a proposal by President Clinton that would target our community for new and potentially damaging taxes or fees. The proposal exhibits a fundamental misunderstanding of "business aviation" and the vital role it plays in business productivity and business revenues (and the tax revenues they generate) of American companies. And, it seems inappropriate to consider a proposal that would divert aviation revenues to other programs. It is particularly puzzling that President Clinton would move in this direction given his previous comments about the business aviation community in a 1992 letter addressed to NBAA, which states:

"As Governor of Arkansas and as presidential candidate, I have been grateful for and dependent on every aspect of this important industry, including airplanes, helicopters, FBOs, fuelers, and others. General aviation has provided me with a flying office and conference room, a sleeping coach, and a means of covering many, many thousands of miles to carry my message of change to America."

"General aviation is critical to the health and growth of our economy. From aircraft manufacturing to business flight departments to FBOs and fuelers, general aviation contributes greatly to our economy. It provides jobs, creates high technology export products contributing to the balance of trade, and improves the efficiency and productivity of businesses through safe and efficient transportation of people and materials by air to all regions of the country and the globe. Success in rebuilding our economy depends on giving workers and businesses the tools,

The impact is the death of billions.

67

68

Avgas –Aff -- Avgas -- A-to Lopez Cplan (when Fed Lands are delegated) cont’

( ) Our AIP disad

a) The cplan would end the Federal AIP grants by transferring land & jurisdiction to States.

Anderson ‘99 (John H. Anderson, Jr., Director, Transportation Issues, Resources, Community, and Economic Development Division -- GAO Reports – June 9th)

For general aviation airports, which depend more heavily on federal grants for their capital development than commercial airports, the proportional shortfall is even greater. We reported that general aviation airports' annual planned development of nearly $ 1.5 billion was more than twice as much as their 1996 funding. While federal grants for airports, including general aviation, increased in 1998, federal funding for general aviation capital development still represents only about 35 percent of these airports' planned capital development that is eligible for federal funding.

BACKGROUND

Of the more than 18,000 general aviation airports in the United States, only 2,806 qualify for federal Airport Improvement Program (AIP) grants. These grants are awarded by FAA and funded through the Airport and Airway Trust Fund, which is financed by taxes on domestic airline tickets, international air travel from the United States, domestic cargo transported by air, and noncommercial aviation fuel. General aviation airports range from small rural facilities that have only a few resident aircraft to large general aviation airports that accommodate hundreds of corporate aircraft and thousands of tons of cargo. These airports rely on grants from federal and state governments as well as tax- exempt bonds and revenue from operations to fund their capital development projects. Since 1982, FAA has provided $ 4.7 billion in AIP grants to general aviation airports and has historically provided federal land to some general aviation airports to develop and expand the nation's aviation infrastructure. In exchange for this federal assistance, airports must agree to abide by a number of requirements, such as obtaining approval from FAA before altering the use or ownership of airport land and using airport revenues only for the airports' operating expenses and other nonoperating expenditures, such as capital development./4 The purpose of the restriction on revenue uses is to make airports as self-sustaining as possible and to minimize the need for federal assistance. FAA's Office of Airports, through its network of 23 field offices, administers AIP and is responsible for overseeing airports' compliance with federal grant and land transfer requirements. These offices are also responsible for taking enforcement actions, when necessary.

b)

AIP grants are key to the expansion of General Aviation in the US.

69

Dillingham ‘03 (Gerald L. Dillingham Director, Civil Aviation Issues – FDCH – Feb 25th)

The primary reason why smaller airports can fund more of their planned capital development today than they could in 1998 is that AIR-21 increased both the total amount of funding for AIP grants and the proportion of AIP funding that went to smaller airports. Specifically, AIR-21 increased the funding for two AIP funds that primarily or exclusively benefit smaller airports--the state apportionment fund and the small airport fund--and it created general aviation entitlement grants, which also benefit smaller airports.3 As a result of these changes, smaller airports received almost 63 percent of the $2.4 billion in AIP grant funds that airports received each year, on average, from 1999 through 2001. Large- and medium-hub airports can also fund more of their planned development today than they could in 1998 primarily because they are able to issue more bonds and to charge a higher passenger facility fee.

And, The internal link and impact to the airline economy were read above.

Avgas –Aff -- Avgas -- 1AR extension off of Federal AIP grants

( ) They say that the Feds will still give the grants as well – but:

a)

That’s not in the cplan text – and you should err Aff on this question. It’s hard enough to research against an artificial cplan like Lopez, but allowing late clarifications jacks any deficit we can create.

b)

The Court would strike-down Federal Grants that occurred after the delegation.

Hills ‘98 (Roderick M. Hills, Jr. -- Assistant Professor of Law, University of Michigan Law School – Michigan Law Review -- Feb – lexis)

In short, erosion of political accountability is endemic to all forms of cooperative federalism; whenever the federal government induces states to act, whether with block grants or categorical grants, there is a considerable risk that voters will be confused about which level of government imposed the regulatory burdens of the program. At least one scholar has suggested that Congress's use of its spending power to impose conditions on federal grants raises the same sort of problems of political accountability as commandeering legislation. 39 To prevent such voter confusion, one would simply have to prohibit the federal government from delegating responsibilities to state and local officials.

Indeed, even absent such delegation, one would have to bar the federal and state governments from ever assuming any overlapping duties in order to guarantee "accountability." After all, voters could be confused about which level of government is responsible for the state of some regulatory field if both state and federal officials could play some role

70

in regulating that field. Such a use of the rhetoric of political accountability is not an academic musing; Justices Kennedy and O'Connor have deployed the political accountability argument in their Lopez concurrence to condemn even federal preemption of state law in regulatory fields traditionally governed by the states. 40

71

Avgas – Aff – A-to Any Agent CPlan – Supreme Court will Strike-Down the Cplan

( ) **Only the FAA can do the plan – the Supreme Court will strike down your agent cplan

Journal of Air Law and Commerce ’95

(February, 1995 / March, 1995 – lexis)

With respect to aircraft emission standards, Congress detailed the primary role of the FAA in CAA sections 231-234, Subpart B. 177 Under section 231, the FAA is required to review aircraft emission standards proposed by the EPA. 178 The FAA has exclusive enforcement power with regard to these emission regulations through denial or certification. 179 The FAA can also veto proposed standards if an aircraft emission regulation would create a safety hazard. 180 Finally, only the FAA can prescribe regulations that insure compliance with emission standards. 181 Section 231 also specifies that the EPA is required to study emission of air pollutants from aircraft and to issue "proposed emission standards applicable to the emission of any air pollutant from any class or classes of aircraft engine." 182

The power to regulate the operation of aircraft has traditionally been exercised by the FAA through (1) its authority to regulate ground operations at airports "for the protec [*943] tion of persons and property on the ground," 183 (2) its authority to regulate air traffic, 184 and (3) its authority to establish minimum safety standards for the operation of airports. 185 Moreover, even if Congress had not delegated to the FAA exclusive authority to regulate aircraft operations, the CAA does not clearly give the EPA authority to regulate aircraft operations via issuance of operational or work practice standards for aircraft. 186

As discussed above, the Administrator is required to issue "emission standards applicable to the emission of any air pollutant from any class or classes of aircraft engine." 187 Emission standards and limitations are defined in CAA section 302 to include "any requirement relating to the operation or maintenance of a source to assure continuous emission reduction, and any design, equipment, work practice or operation standard promulgated under this chapter." 188

But, the Supreme Court has rejected the EPA's argument that a "work practice standard is just another type of emission standard." 189 In Adamo Wrecking the EPA unsuccessfully argued that the definition of emission standard, in the context of CAA section 112, was broad enough to include work practices. In 1977, Congress subsequently amended section 112 to provide that, if "it is not feasible to prescribe or enforce an emission standard," the Administrator "may instead promulgate a design, equipment, work practice, or operational standard." 190 Congress has not similarly amended CAA section 231. 191 It would appear, then, that [*944] the EPA does not have the legal authority to issue work practice or operational standards.

72

Avgas – Aff – A-to Agent cplans – FAA ignores & Delays

( ) FAA ignores and delays external orders – they’ll stall or simply never initiate the plan

Washington Times ’01

(October 13, 2001 – lexis)

In 1996, Congress passed the Federal Aviation and Reauthorization Act, which mandated that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) set new regulations to improve the performance of airport screeners. But the FAA has failed to establish, much less begin to enforce, the new regulations Congress requested in 1996. The FAA said it had been waiting for new technology to come online that would allow the agency to monitor the efficacy of baggage screeners. But after a five-year lag, it appears that the FAA has been caught in bureaucratic paralysis. The agency said the new regulations were going to be finalized by the end of September, but in wake of the Sept. 11 destruction, those longawaited rules have been shelved pending a decision by Congress regarding aviation regulation.

Unsurprisingly, behind the FAA inertia lies an excessively cozy relationship between the agency and the airline industry. According to a Public Citizen study, the airline industry spent $6.8 million in campaign contributions from 1999 to 2000 and $4.1 million from 1997 to 1998. And the Air Transport Association (ATA), the trade association of the top nine airlines, spent $62.9 million to lobby the federal government from 1997 through 2000. Much of that money went to employ former FAA and government employees. And the ATA has vigorously opposed recommendations for moderate efforts to bolster the performance of baggage screeners.

( ) FAA openly ignores external orders.

Hefley ‘99 (US Rep. Joel Hefley – Denver Post – Sept 11th – lexis)

Congress has repeatedly stepped into this debate in an effort to preserve Centennial Airport's ability to govern itself. As long ago as 1996, Congress told the FAA that airports such as Centennial and Jefferson County cannot be forced to accept scheduled passenger service if the airport does not want such service. The FAA action against Centennial Airport is based in part on the assumption that the FAA need not acknowledge the existence of this change in law. For three years, the FAA has taken it upon itself to ignore Congress and the nation's laws. Enough is enough.

( ) It’s not a question of enforcement – FAA will not even implement external orders.

RMN ’99

(Rocky Mountain News -- August 12, 1999)

73

In recent legislation, Congress authorized general-aviation airports to ban commercial flights without losing funding. The FAA has ignored the change, however, saying the agency has not yet adopted rules implementing the legislation.

( ) FAA ignores and delays external orders

May ‘03 (JAMES C. MAY, PRESIDENT AND CEO -- AIR TRANSPORT ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA FDCH March 12th – lexis)

We also encourage Congress to instruct the FAA to finalize the Policy Regarding Airport Rates and Charges required by the 1994 Authorization Act. Here we are, ten years later, and the FAA has failed to complete this important policy. To make matters worse, in an action that may exceed its authority, FAA recently withdrew the four-year-old rulemaking intended to finalize the policy. Regardless of FAA's reasons, it should not be permitted to ignore Congress' clear instruction to promulgate this policy.

74

Avgas – Aff – A-to Agent cplans – FAA ignores & Delays cont’

( ) FAA will completely blow off external regulation

Denver Post, ’98

(November 29, 1998 – lexis)

The 1996 legislation also revised the FAA's mandate. While the FAA previously had been empowered to focus on safety and to promote aviation, the new law said the agency should worry about safety alone.

Once again, however, the FAA ignored the law. This summer, long after Congress had told the FAA to focus on safety, BusinessWeek described agency officials as "more interested in promoting the airline industry than policing it."

Yet ample evidence shows safety needs more attention. Security remains a problem, with a Channel 7 report showing gaping holes in passenger screening at DIA. And last April, the near-miss of two airliners over LaGuardia Airport went unreported for nearly a month and highlighted serious air-traffic control problems.

Nevertheless, the FAA continues to act as the public relations arm of airlines. More than a dozen FAA officials attended the two-day Denver hearing to try to force Centennial Airport to accept Centennial Express Airlines. FAA attorneys served as Centennial Express' advocates while FAA witnesses were uncooperative with airline opponents.

75

Avgas – Aff –A-to EPA Cplan – will get struck-down

( ) Only the FAA can do the plan – the EPA literally cannot.

Journal of Air Law and Commerce ’95

(February, 1995 / March, 1995 – lexis)

B. The EPA's Authority v. the FAA's Authority

Ignoring the EPA as a substitute for the state concept momentarily, the question arises whether one federal agency (the FAA) can preempt another (the EPA)? Stated differently, does the EPA have the authority to issue operational standards for aircraft, a power traditionally reserved for the FAA? The following analysis of this "federal v. federal preemption" issue in the South Coast Basin scenario will look to similar cases in which two federal agencies seek to regulate the same activity. 170 If, however, one accepts the "stand in the shoes" concept, then a more traditional "state v. federal" preemption analysis is proper. 171

1. Operational Standards

The EPA claims that its broad powers under section 110(c) provide the legal authority for its proposed control strategy. 172 Nonetheless, in the proposed FIP the EPA specifically requested comment on "the relationship between EPA's legal authority under section 110(c) and section 231." 173 According to the EPA, sections 231 and 232 of the CAA "establish a cooperative scheme" between the EPA and the FAA. 174 According to Congress, the FAA has the authority to regulate air traffic, including the authority to regulate ground operations at airports for the "protection of persons and property on the ground." 175 This authority includes the power to establish minimum safety standards for the operation of airports. 176 [*942] With respect to aircraft emission standards, Congress detailed the primary role of the FAA in CAA sections 231-234, Subpart B. 177 Under section 231, the FAA is required to review aircraft emission standards proposed by the EPA. 178 The FAA has exclusive enforcement power with regard to these emission regulations through denial or certification. 179 The FAA can also veto proposed standards if an aircraft emission regulation would create a safety hazard. 180 Finally, only the FAA can prescribe regulations that insure compliance with emission standards. 181 Section 231 also specifies that the EPA is required to study emission of air pollutants from aircraft and to issue "proposed emission standards applicable to the emission of any air pollutant from any class or classes of aircraft engine." 182 The power to regulate the operation of aircraft has traditionally been exercised by the FAA through (1) its authority to regulate ground operations at airports "for the protec [*943] tion of persons and property on the ground," 183 (2) its authority to regulate air traffic, 184 and (3) its authority to establish minimum safety standards for the operation of airports. 185 Moreover, even if Congress had not delegated to the FAA exclusive authority to regulate aircraft operations, the CAA does not clearly give the EPA authority to regulate aircraft operations via issuance of operational or work practice standards for aircraft. 186 As discussed above, the Administrator is required to issue "emission standards applicable to the emission of any air pollutant from any class or classes of aircraft engine." 187 Emission standards and limitations are defined in CAA section 302 to include "any requirement relating to the operation or maintenance of a source to assure continuous emission reduction, and any design, equipment, work practice or operation standard promulgated under this chapter." 188 But, the Supreme Court has rejected the EPA's argument that a "work practice standard is just another type of emission standard." 189 In Adamo Wrecking the EPA unsuccessfully argued that the definition of emission standard, in the context of CAA section 112, was broad enough to

76

include work practices. In 1977, Congress subsequently amended section 112 to provide that, if "it is not feasible to prescribe or enforce an emission standard," the Administrator "may instead promulgate a design, equipment, work practice, or operational standard." 190 Congress has not similarly amended CAA section 231. 191 It would appear, then, that [*944] the EPA does not have the legal authority to issue work practice or operational standards.

77

Avgas – Aff –A-to EPA Cplan – will get struck-down cont’

( ) The EPA cannot do the plan – only the FAA can.

Journal of Air Law and Commerce ’95

(February, 1995 / March, 1995 – lexis)

As discussed above, the CAA outlines each agency's respective role. Clean Air Act section 231 expresses Congress' intent to limit the EPA's power to promulgate aircraft emission standards to the issuance of aircraft engine emission standards. 234 Moreover, Congress limited the EPA to issuing only those emission standards determined by the FAA to meet aircraft safety considerations. 235

The legislative history of CAA section 231(c) supports Congress' intent to place the FAA in this review and veto position. 236 Specifically, the House Committee expressed concern that "the consultation procedure provided for in [pre-1990] CAA section 231(c) of the existing Clean Air Act is not an adequate mechanism to assure that emission standards under CAA section 231 will not impair aircraft safety." 237 In response to that concern, Congress amended 231(c), removing the consultation procedure and introducing the veto procedure. 238

Furthermore, in the preamble to the final rule, the EPA itself recognized that the FAA "has the responsibility for defining the appropriate means of enforcement ...." 239 The recognition that the FAA, not the EPA, will enforce air emissions has been codified as CAA section 232(a). 240

78

Avgas – Aff – A-to Agent cplans – FAA ignores & Delays – Executive Order Specific

( ) FAA blows off Executive Orders

Reilly ’95

(Richard J. Reilly, Vice President for Business Development for Kavouras Inc., of Minneapolis, Minnesota. Kavouras Inc. is a high technology firm specializing in the development of weather radars, satellite weather observation systems and communication and display systems for collecting, integrating and delivering weather data to end users. FDCH – March 23rd)

In some government agencies the foregoing process is further subverted by the existence of agency R&D laboratories whose continued budgets must be justified. In-house agency developments are sometimes hampered by the intricacies of the management bureaucracy. The slowed development process must somehow be made to appear viable when the internal development is procured for hardware/software/system execution and production. Often this means that the specification which goes to industry for implementation must appear to be an evolution of an R&D program initiated by the agency laboratory, further hampering an already tortured process.

The FAA's Microwave Landing System (MLS) is a prime example. The MLS is an internal FAA development that has been carried by the budget beyond the memory of most of the current participants in the program. I am certain that the Committee is well familiar with its tortured path. The FAA's Advanced Automation System (AAS) is another such program, far outside its original schedule and programmed cost. It now appears that the FAA is appearing to follow a similar path with its current actions relative to the Operational and Supportability Implementation System (OASIS) and the Weather and Radar Processor (WARP) program.

In 1992 industry representatives delivered a white paper outlining how the OASIS requirements could be met by commercial off the shelf equipment (COTS). At that time the FAA lead members of the Committee to believe that the OASIS requirements could be met by COTS equipment. As a result, the 1995 Transportation Appropriations Bill included language directing the FAA to accelerate the OASIS program (using COTS), with the objective of contract award by mid 1995 and deployment in 1996. Now it appears that the FAA is ignoring the executive order and, once again, inventing its own program. Do we never learn or must we again travel the well beaten path of MLS and AAS to reach late deployments, cost overruns and safety compromises?

( ) FAA blows off Executive Orders as well

Air Transport World ’95

(September, 1995 – lexis)

79

A lot could be riding on the decision by the city of Indianapolis to hand management of its airport to a private company, the British Airports Authority. If the parties accomplish their goals, Indianapolis's action could mark a turning point in U.S. airport management, ownership, financing and airline relations.

The airport is only the latest of city activities turned over to so-called managed competition since Stephen Goldsmith became mayor in 1992. Actually, he campaigned on the idea of selling a batch of city entities. His unhappiness with the airport stems from the drain on coffers from bonds used to finance United's maintenance base. He figured a sale could pay that off.

In office, however, he ran into major hurdles--U.S. FAA's bureaucratic intransigence despite a Bush administration executive order making it practical, and IRS rules related to tax-exempt bonds--"that were very near insurmountable." Now, he says, if the BAA deal cuts costs 30%, "we accomplish the same thing." Also, since "we didn't want to take money out of the airport," the advantages of a sale didn't outweigh the disadvantages.

Avgas – Aff – Avgas -- A-to “Threat” CPlan

( ) Your cplan has been done, and it didn’t work – EPA has formally threatened to crack down on avgas before.

Aviation Daily ’97

(July 3rd – lexis)

The Environmental Protection Agency may be mounting another attack on aviation gasoline as a major polluter, according to the National Air Carrier Association. NACA VP Andrew Cebula said a June 20 Federal Register notice in which EPA listed avgas as the sole source of lead pollution in the environment threatens burdensome new regulations against fuel providers and aviation users. EPA has authority to require vapor recovery equipment on fuel storage tanks and fueling trucks, he said. No vapor recovery system for truck-to-aircraft refueling is available, he said, and development of such a system is "questionable" because the market for it would be small.

( ) Threats fail and allow for big delays. Also proves that the replacements will be dangerous.

Aviation Week and Space Technology, ’01

(July 23, 2001)

But leaded aviation gasoline has beaten back several threats over the last two decades (AW&ST Mar. 25, 1991, p. 9). Cessna Aircraft expects the fuel to be available until at least 2010. Why worry now? The main reason is the rapid decline in other users of tetraethyl lead (TEL) and a corresponding drop in supply. There were about 40-50 suppliers making the octane-boosting chemical several years ago, but now there are only about two left in the world -- one in the U.K. and one in Russia, said Cesar Gonzalez, who investigated advanced fuels and engine concepts at Cessna

A variety of organizations, from oil companies to the FAA, are trying to find a lead-free substitute for 100 low-lead (100LL), but so from 1980 until his retirement in 1998. He continues the work as a consultant to keep Cessna abreast of fuels research.

80

far nothing viable has appeared. Proposed formulations often are more toxic than TEL, don't meet specifications and are expensive. Engine alterations may offer some relief, but this is far from certain. Lead pollution was a major issue when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) started banning lead in motor fuels 20 years ago. But general aviation's contribution is so small that the EPA is unlikely to force it to change, several fuel experts said. However, ''aviation gasoline is the last source of aerial lead,'' said Earl Lawrence, vice president for government and industry relations at the Experimental Aircraft Assn. ''All others have cleaned up and we haven't; we stick out.'' Additives related to lead are a problem, too. Ethylene dibromide is the ''scavenger'' for 100LL and is highly toxic as well as being a banned greenhouse-effect chemical, said Lars Hjelmberg, owner of the Swedish Hjelmco avgas firm. Without the scavenger, lead would foul the engine in a matter of hours, he said. Large parts of Europe have recently banned leaded automotive fuel, contributing to the drop in TEL production. ''Countries that you thought two years ago would never switch from lead, have switched,'' Gonzalez said. ''It's not just due to auto regulations -- producers have found how to make fuel cheaper without lead than with lead. They've found cheaper ways to do alkylation.'' Larger piston aircraft in corporate or commercial use are being replaced by turbine aircraft, cutting avgas consumption. The TEL and 100LL delivery network, necessarily segregated to prevent TEL contamination of other fuels, becomes less economical as quantity drops. ''CONSUMPTION IS DOWN, prices are up, the EPA is on you, all at the same time,'' Lawrence said. ''Petroleum companies say these factors will cause the end of leaded avgas in 2005-10.'' The Octel Corp., which runs the sole Western TEL plant in the U.K., is sending mixed messages. On the one hand, Lawrence said, their salesmen tell the unleaded fuels working group at the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) that there will be no shortage, but on the other hand the 1998 Octel shareholder report describes how TEL output is dropping 15% per year and the company Web site notes the ''phaseout period'' for TEL. ''It is suicide to rely on just one supplier,'' Gonzalez said. Yet Cessna is optimistic. ''There are other plants capable of making lead. If the one becomes unavailable, others would stoke up their plants to meet the need,'' said Jack Pelton, Cessna senior vice president for product engineering. British Petroleum and Exxon are leading oil company efforts to develop a substitute, and Texaco has also done work. Cessna has done lengthy research on a wide range of fuels and even built a direct-injection engine that runs on kerosene or avgas. Phillips Petroleum and the FAA have been working with Cessna on a stopgap fuel. The ASTM Aviation Gasoline Subcommittee has been developing new fuel specifications, and the General Aviation Manufacturers Assn. has a task group on the issue. There is skepticism about the effort

''There's a six-year history of the industry and FAA developing a 100LL replacement,'' said Tim C. Roehl, president of General Aviation Modifications Inc. (GAMI). ''It has been wholly unsuccessful. They've either not performed or they have additional toxic additives. Some are so toxic they won't let them in the laboratory, such as amines. There are very secretive corporate approaches, and no one wants to support the other.'' ''With these large companies with huge resources, it's funny to realize that after 10-15 years nothing has happened,'' Hjelmberg said. Another observer noted, ''My thought is that fuels research is a charade. When the EPA comes asking, they can say they're working on it.'' ''There's lots of posturing going on,'' another observer said. ''No one wants to be blamed for whatever undesirable so far.

happens. Some companies would love to get out of lead but don't want to cause the commotion.''

81

Avgas – Aff – Avgas -- A-to “Threat” CPlan cont’

( ) Delay matters

a)

our Ozone Advantage has a 2010 threshold, and our China advantage is imminent.

b)

Threats buy time for costly unleaded alternatives to come to market.

The Weekly of Business Aviation ’97

(Dec 1st – lexis)

The number of FBOs in the Phillips 66 network has fluctuated somewhat over the past few years, but has stabilized at about 750 locations in 45 states. The company claims 25-30 percent of the market for aviation gasoline, and Bogan said continued availability of 100LL fuel is expected for the next five years, "since no comparable unleaded substitute is available." She added, however, that EPA is continuing to pressure refiners to eliminate "this last leaded gasoline product," leading the industry to seek unleaded alternatives for the future. Bogan said it is "likely" that unleaded aviation gasoline can be produced that will meet a minimum requirement of 97 or 98 lead octane within the next five years. But she added that initial evaluation of testing, refinery production and distribution costs to produce such a fuel "may increase avgas prices by an estimated 40 to 50 percent."

c)

increased fuel costs increase food prices

Dahlberg ’97 (Kenneth A. – editor of Agriculture & Human Values – MLT Newsletter – originally published in The Neighborhood Works – and in Food Flight – Feb/March -- page 14 – obtained via http://www.michiganlandtrust.org/newslet2.htm)

What restructuring? Current agriculture (national and international) is unsustainable. Not only does it impose extremely high health, social, and environmental costs, but it is highly fossil-fuel dependent. In the US it takes roughly ten energy calories to deliver one food calorie on our plates. As fossil fuel prices rise, there will be a huge multiplier effect on food prices with resulting chaos throughout the food system if this happens quickly. As we move into the post-fossilfuel era, we can either wait until things collapse or start the necessary restructuring now. This restructuring will greatly affect towns and cities as well as rural regions. What food systems? And what are they anyway? It is not surprising that people raise these questions since most are aware only of production agriculture. Most city dwellers, not to mention city planners, are otherwise illiterate when it comes to their local food system. Few citizens or officials are aware of how dependent their city is upon distant national and international systems (public and private) for food and how vulnerable those systems are. Neither are they aware of the extent and complexity of their local food systems, much less their potential, and the need to develop that potential. This is reflected in the fact that no US city (or state) has a Department of Food. Equally, few people are aware that the value of the produce from all US gardens (urban and rural) is roughly equivalent to that of the corn crop (Approximately $18 billion a year!). Also, there is little awareness that agricultural, horticultural, and food-related activities constitute roughly 20-25% of a local economy (at least in those few regions where studies have been done).

82

Avgas – Aff – Avgas -- A-to “Threat” CPlan cont’

d)

This kills billions

Power ’96

e)

(Paul Power Jr. – quoting Pinstrup-Anderson; Director of the International Food policy Research Institute in Washington DC – Power is on the Staff of the Tampa Tribune – Tampa Tribune – Jan 20th)

If delays allow a non-ethanol replacement, then they don’t solve the China advantage.

83

Avgas – Aff – A-to Reg Neg Cplan – Functionally Consult Businesses

( ) Reg Negs on ethanol fail – there’s a bias against ethanol, and such Reg Negs lack trust.

Platt’s 92

(Platt’s Oilgram News – October 6th – lexis)

The uproar over the Bush Administration's proposal that opens the door to ethanol use in the reformulated gasoline program is just the latest example of the uneasy relationships among those who either have responsibility for making the Clean Air Act work or who come under its mandates.

The dispute pits the ethanol industry against most of the other signatories to a regulatory negotiation agreement designed to accommodate as many conflicting and competing interests as possible. Most of those signatories are accusing the ethanol industry of breaking faith by seeking further accommodation from the federal government, thus violating the agreement.

"Every single party in this negotiation had veto power over the whole deal," William Becker, director of state and territorial air pollution program administators, told a national conference on Clean Air Act compliance and reformulated gasoline last week. "What is happening is so disconcerting, it's unbelievable. I hope irreconcilable harm hasn't been done," he said.

Becker suggested that some concessions that environmentalists and state officials agreed to may now be called into question because of the ethanol industry's actions. He said the entire regulatory negotiation process -- the so-called "reg-neg" -- itself may be undermined by the Administration's decision. "I'm fearful now that no one in their right minds will want to spend hundreds of hours in a reg-neg process," he said.

84

Avgas – Aff – A-to Reg Neg Cplan – Functionally Consult Businesses cont’

( ) Reg negs are comparatively worse than rulemaking – you link harder to every net benefit.

Coglianese ’97

(Cary Coglianese -- Assistant Professor of Public Policy, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government – Duke Law Journal – April)

When conventional rulemaking works better than we thought and negotiated rulemaking fares worse, there seems little reason to continue to pursue negotiated rulemaking. Of course, it may be argued that even if negotiated rulemaking fails to reduce time and litigation, it still allows participants to learn from each other. 341 It would not be surprising if negotiated rulemaking did foster [*1333] learning. After all, anyone who participates in a series of intensive sessions focused on a regulation typically will come away having learned more than if he had not attended at all. 342 Participants devote a substantial amount of their time and resources to studying the issues. 343 Kerwin and Langbein find that during negotiations organizations spend an average of 26 percent of all their available resources on the negotiations, with environmental groups reporting the highest proportion (50%). 344 Kerwin and Langbein also report that "big business" spends an average of $ 432,000 for research expenses and over $ 250,000 for consultants and lawyers. 345 With investments as large as these, we should hope that participants are learning something. Yet since negotiated rulemaking is characterized by a quest for consensus, we should ask whether learning depends on that quest. In other words, do we need negotiated rulemaking for learning to take place? Or can it be equally well achieved with discussion-oriented sessions that do not seek the achievement of a consensus? To show that learning and information exchange result from a quest for consensus, we would need to compare negotiated rulemaking with other equally intensive agency workshops. Proceedings that negotiation consultants like to call "facilitated joint brainstorming," 346 and which agencies call roundtables, workshops, and "enhanced participatory rulemakings," 347 also aim at [*1334] information exchange and learning, but without the quest for consensus. Such proceedings may well achieve comparable gains in terms of information exchange without generating the same level of position-taking as negotiated rulemaking and without raising unrealistic expectations about what participants will receive from their investment of time. The quest for consensus has been the hallmark of negotiated rulemaking. In Philip Harter's words, "it is precisely the ability to reach closure on critical issues that separates it from a mere advisory committee or other consultative process." 348 Through the difficult task of finding and maintaining a

in the negotiated rulemakings that agencies have thus far completed, closure has been more difficult to sustain than ever anticipated. Despite the many aspirations for negotiated rulemaking, agencies' investment in it has yet to yield any demonstrable dividends in terms of saving time or reducing litigation. The quest for consensus has produced less closure than has the more practiced style of rulemaking on which agencies ordinarily rely. consensus, negotiated rulemaking offers agencies the hope of closure, reduced rulemaking time, and lessened litigation. Yet

Conclusion

Negotiated rulemaking's promise has been an alluring one. Policymakers and scholars have increasingly looked to negotiated rulemaking to minimize delays and conflict in the regulatory process. In exchange for an up-front investment in the pursuit of consensus early in the rulemaking process, agencies have been promised attractive dividends, namely shortened rulemaking time and reduced litigation over agency rules. Advocates have claimed other benefits from negotiated rulemaking, sometimes seeming to offer the potential for creating nearly flawless regulations if only agencies would affirm decisions reached by interest group representatives. Yet these other purported benefits of negotiated rulemaking - among them better information, shared learning, or heightened feelings of community - have over the years been side attractions to the main event, as they do not depend on a quest for consensus. Policymakers and scholars have focused most of [*1335] their attention on negotiated rulemaking's potential to reduce litigation and shorten rulemaking time, benefits that necessarily depend on the successful maintenance of consensus. Although this quest for consensus has held out the

Negotiated rulemaking does not appear any more capable of limiting regulatory time or avoiding litigation than do the rulemaking procedures ordinarily used by agencies. The agency that has used negotiated rulemaking the most, the EPA, has not seen its negotiated rules emerge in final form any sooner than rules not subject to formal negotiation. Once promulgated, negotiated rules still find themselves subject to legal challenge. The litigation rate for negotiated rules issued by the EPA has actually been higher than that for other significant EPA rules. These results will no doubt seem surprising in light of the enthusiastic support negotiated rulemaking has received over the years. They are only all the more surprising considering that agencies have deliberately selected rules for formal negotiation in order to ensure the procedure's success. On reflection, negotiated rulemaking's weak results should not be as surprising as they may at first seem. While negotiated promise of a faster and less conflictual regulatory process, experience has so far shown otherwise.

85

rulemaking seeks to eliminate conflict, it also adds new sources of conflict and raises unrealistic expectations about what participants can gain from their participation.

86

Avgas – Aff – A-to Reg Neg Cplan – Functionally Consult Businesses cont’

( ) They’ll say no -- Already had a reg neg over the plan before – it resulted in nothing.

AOPA ‘04 (Aircraft Owners and Pilot Association -- August 09, 2004 -http://www.aopa.org/whatsnew/regulatory/regunlead.html)

A meeting AOPA attended recently detailed the lab work under way to find a replacement for 100LL. A number of alternatives show promise, but all still need further development. As a full member of the Coordinating Research Council, AOPA is working to ensure that a viable alternative is found, tested, and certified before 100LL is phased out.

In the early 1990s, AOPA lobbied forcefully and successfully to prevent the Environmental Protection Agency from banning the use of leaded aviation gasoline. However, the EPA banned all other leaded gasoline, so general aviation was left as the nation's sole user of a leaded motor fuel.

(Note the AOPA is the Aircraft Owners and Pilot Association)

87

Avgas – Aff – A-to Reg Neg Cplan – Functionally Consult Businesses cont’

( ) No solvency – delay

a) Reg Neg takes forever

Ackerman ’94

(Susan Rose, Henry R. Luce Professor of Jurisprudence (Law and Political Science), Yale University, Duke Law Journal, April)

According to Improving Regulatory Systems, the aims of regulatory negotiation are to reduce the time it takes to put a rule into effect and to obtain high levels of compliance. Because affected parties have signed on to the negotiated regulation, they may be both less likely to challenge the rule in court and more likely to comply with it. However, as the authors of the report recognize, regulatory negotiation under current law introduces an extra step that is timeconsuming and difficult. One observer advised participants to expect a “roller coaster experience.” Even though regulatory negotiation may shorten the regulatory process in terms of calendar time, the actual hours of participant time [*12 121 may be greater than under other regulatory procedures. Although a number of regulatory negotiations have been successful, 22 the claims of widespread benefits are mostly speculative. And when it comes to enforcing the regulation, reg neg may not help significantly: even for rules promulgated by standard methods, compliance seems high.

b) They invite all downstream users – massively increasing delays.

c) Plan is immediate fiat – which is shorter by definition.

88

Avgas – Aff – A-to Reg Neg Cplan – Functionally Consult Businesses cont’

( ) Delay matters

a) our Ozone Advantage has a 2010 threshold, and our China advantage is imminent. b)

Industry will stonewall in order to wait for unleaded alternatives – solving none of the Aff.

Aviation Week and Space Technology, ’01

(July 23, 2001)

But leaded aviation gasoline has beaten back several threats over the last two decades (AW&ST Mar. 25, 1991, p. 9). Cessna Aircraft expects the fuel to be available until at least 2010. Why worry now? The main reason is the rapid decline in other users of tetraethyl lead (TEL) and a corresponding drop in supply. There were about 40-50 suppliers making the octane-boosting chemical several years ago, but now there are only about two left in the world -- one in the U.K. and one in Russia, said Cesar Gonzalez, who investigated advanced fuels and engine concepts at Cessna from 1980 until his retirement in 1998. He continues the work as a consultant to keep Cessna abreast of fuels research. A variety of organizations, from oil companies to the FAA, are trying to find a lead-free substitute for 100 low-lead (100LL), but so far nothing viable has appeared. Proposed formulations often are more toxic than TEL, don't meet specifications and are expensive. Engine alterations may offer some relief, but this is far from certain. Lead pollution was a major issue when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) started banning lead in motor fuels 20 years ago. But general aviation's contribution is so small that the EPA is unlikely to force it to change, several fuel experts said. However, ''aviation gasoline is the last source of aerial lead,'' said Earl Lawrence, vice president for government and industry relations at the Experimental Aircraft Assn. ''All others have cleaned up and we haven't; we stick out.'' Additives related to lead are a problem, too. Ethylene dibromide is the ''scavenger'' for 100LL and is highly toxic as well as being a banned greenhouse-effect chemical, said Lars Hjelmberg, owner of the Swedish Hjelmco avgas firm. Without the scavenger, lead would foul the engine in a matter of hours, he said. Large parts of Europe have recently banned leaded automotive fuel, contributing to the drop in TEL production. ''Countries that you thought two years ago would never switch from lead, have switched,'' Gonzalez said. ''It's not just due to auto regulations -- producers have found how to make fuel cheaper without lead than with lead. They've found cheaper ways to do alkylation.'' Larger piston aircraft in corporate or commercial use are being replaced by turbine aircraft, cutting avgas consumption. The TEL and 100LL delivery network, necessarily segregated to prevent TEL contamination of other fuels, becomes less economical as quantity drops. ''CONSUMPTION IS DOWN, prices are up, the EPA is on you, all at the same time,'' Lawrence said. ''Petroleum companies say these factors will cause the end of leaded avgas in 2005-10.'' The Octel Corp., which runs the sole Western TEL plant in the U.K., is sending mixed messages. On the one hand, Lawrence said, their salesmen tell the unleaded fuels working group at the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) that there will be no shortage, but on the other hand the 1998 Octel shareholder report describes how TEL output is dropping 15% per year and the company Web site notes the ''phaseout period'' for TEL. ''It is suicide to rely on just one supplier,'' Gonzalez said. Yet Cessna is optimistic. ''There are other plants

unavailable, others would stoke up their plants to meet the need,'' said Jack Pelton, Cessna senior vice president for product engineering. British Petroleum and Exxon are leading oil company efforts to develop a substitute, and Texaco has also done work. Cessna has done lengthy research on a wide range of fuels and even built a directinjection engine that runs on kerosene or avgas. Phillips Petroleum and the FAA have been working with Cessna on a stopgap fuel. The ASTM Aviation Gasoline Subcommittee has been developing new fuel specifications, and the General Aviation Manufacturers Assn. has a task group on the issue. There is skepticism about the effort so far. ''There's a six-year history of the industry and FAA developing a 100LL replacement,'' said Tim C. Roehl, president of General Aviation Modifications Inc. (GAMI). ''It has been wholly unsuccessful. They've either not performed or they have additional toxic additives. Some are so toxic they won't let them in the laboratory, such as amines. There are very secretive corporate approaches, and no one wants to support the other.'' ''With these large companies with huge resources, it's funny to realize that after 10-15 years nothing has happened,'' Hjelmberg said. Another observer noted, ''My thought is that fuels research is a charade. When the EPA comes asking, they can say they're working on it.'' ''There's lots of posturing going on,'' another observer said. ''No one wants to be blamed for whatever undesirable happens. Some companies would love to get out of lead but don't want to cause the commotion.'' capable of making lead. If the one becomes

89

Avgas – Aff – A-to Reg Neg Cplan – Functionally Consult Businesses cont’

(optional)

c)

Unleaded options raise fuel prices

The Weekly of Business Aviation ’97 (Dec 1st – lexis)

The number of FBOs in the Phillips 66 network has fluctuated somewhat over the past few years, but has stabilized at about 750 locations in 45 states. The company claims 25-30 percent of the market for aviation gasoline, and Bogan said continued availability of 100LL fuel is expected for the next five years, "since no comparable unleaded substitute is available." She added, however, that EPA is continuing to pressure refiners to eliminate "this last leaded gasoline product," leading the industry to seek unleaded alternatives for the future. Bogan said it is "likely" that unleaded aviation gasoline can be produced that will meet a minimum requirement of 97 or 98 lead octane within the next five years. But she added that initial evaluation of testing, refinery production and distribution costs to produce such a fuel "may increase avgas prices by an estimated 40 to 50 percent."

d)

This increase food prices -- fuel costs are key to checking high food prices

Dahlberg ’97

(Kenneth A. – editor of Agriculture & Human Values – MLT Newsletter – originally published in The Neighborhood Works – and in Food Flight – Feb/March -- page 14 – obtained via http://www.michiganlandtrust.org/newslet2.htm)

What restructuring? Current agriculture (national and international) is unsustainable. Not only does it impose extremely high health, social, and environmental costs, but it is highly fossil-fuel dependent. In the US it takes roughly ten energy calories to deliver one food calorie on our plates. As fossil fuel prices rise, there will be a huge multiplier effect on food prices with resulting chaos throughout the food system if this happens quickly. As we move into the post-fossilfuel era, we can either wait until things collapse or start the necessary restructuring now. This restructuring will greatly affect towns and cities as well as rural regions. What food systems? And what are they anyway? It is not surprising that people raise these questions since most are aware only of production agriculture. Most city dwellers, not to mention city planners, are otherwise illiterate when it comes to their local food system. Few citizens or officials are aware of how dependent their city is upon distant national and international systems (public and private) for food and how vulnerable those systems are. Neither are they aware of the extent and complexity of their local food systems, much less their potential, and the need to develop that potential. This is reflected in the fact that no US city (or state) has a Department of Food. Equally, few people are aware that the value of the produce from all US gardens (urban and rural) is roughly equivalent to that of the corn crop (Approximately $18 billion a year!). Also, there is little awareness that agricultural, horticultural, and food-related activities constitute roughly 20-25% of a local economy (at least in those few regions where studies have been done).

90

Avgas – Aff – A-to Reg Neg Cplan – Functionally Consult Businesses cont’

e)

High Food prices kill billions

Power ’96 (Paul Power Jr. – quoting Pinstrup-Anderson; Director of the International Food policy Research Institute in Washington DC – Power is on the Staff of the Tampa Tribune – Tampa Tribune – Jan 20th)

91

Avgas – Aff – A-to Reg Neg Cplan – Functionally Consult Businesses cont’

( ) You link worse to Bus Con

a)

Big Oil hates the cplan

Platt’s ’94

(Platt's Oilgram News, January 17, 1994 – lexis)

EPA expects to issue a final rule on renewable oxygenates by June. Hemminghaus said the additional storage requirements the program would require, plus the segregation of simple and complex model RFG, "will create a logistics nightmare." The executive director of the Oxygenated Fuels Assn., which represents methanol and ethanol producers, said all oxygenates have benefits and particular market strength. For that reason, "EPA intervention into the oxygenate market. . . is unjustified," said Fred Craft. EPA's proposal violates negotiated agreements that produced the reform rule as well as the Clean air Act, Craft said. It interferes with the competitive marketplace "and sets a precedent adverse to industrial cooperation with future regulatory negotiations." Furthermore, Craft said, fuel neutrality isn't inconsistent with fuel diversity. "In reality, there is no need for rigid and inflexible administrative requirements to ensure ethanol and Etbe a place in the oxygenate marketplace." Reg-Neg: Not Likely Again The API's DiBona said in New York that the primary reason the oil industry participated in the regulatory negotiation was to ensure certainty on the RFG provisions, and to allow for a long lead- time to make investments. "It was a tough decision last time," he said, and the ethanol issue and others "will weigh in the balance of deciding not doing it again."

(note: Craft is the executive director of the Oxygenated Fuels Assn.)

b) Avgas users hate Reg Neg -- prefer traditional rulemaking.

Bryner ‘01 (Gary Bryner -- University of Colorado School of Law – European Environment – vol 11. -http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/fulltext/76510148/PDFSTART)

Again, a small sample size makes it difficult to draw conclusions from this study. Langbein and Kerwin identified two problems with the reg-neg process. First, the cost of participating in reg-negs for smaller entities, such as small businesses, is greater than in conventional rule making, and, as a result, these groups do not respond that the net benefits of participation are higher than in conventional rule making. Langbein and Kerwin suggest that a more informal process, called a ‘policy dialogue’, where some of the formal requirements of a reg-neg are relaxed, be used to reduce costs but still facilitate the exchange of information and the participation by stakeholders. Second, they argue that agencies include a spokesperson for ‘dynamic efficiency’, an advocate to represent ‘the unorganized consumer’ and ‘the long-run competitiveness of the economy’ in the proceedings, since other parties do not have an incentive to represent those interests (Langbein and Kerwin, 1998, p 29). Both suggestions may be useful in some settings. The second one is more important and more difficult. Collaborative proceedings need to include broader perspectives than

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those represented by the participating parties, but one person may not be able to fill such a role. An alternative approach is to mandate related criteria for agency officials to include in their deliberations. However, the values suggested by Langbein and Kerwin are susceptible to widely divergent interpretations, and that remains a major challenge in collaborative approaches.

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Avgas – Aff – Ethanol Reg Negs Fail/Link to disad

( ) Ethanol Reg Negs are different – industry won’t show, and they don’t inspire confidence.

Oil & Gas Journal ’93

(December 27th – lexis)

Industry groups are criticizing the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's proposal to require renewable fuels like ethanol in reformulated gasoline (RFG). EPA issued its proposed RFG rule, dropping the Bush Administration's plan to grant ethanol a 1 psi waiver from the Clean Air Act's RFG requirements. But its proposed a separate rule requiring 30% of the compounds used to add oxygen to RFG to come from renewable sources (OGJ, Dec. 20, p. 29). Such sources include ethanol and ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE), an ethanol derivative. EPA's proposal is subject to a hearing in January 1994 and a final rule-making in June. The RFG program is designed for the nine urban areas with the worst ozone levels, but other states and cities may opt in. The program will be implemented in two phases. The first phase will begin Jan. 1, 1995, and require RFG to achieve a 1517% reduction in ozone forming volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and toxics emissions from motor vehicles. Phase 2, which will begin Jan. 1, 2000, will require a 25-29% reduction in VOC emissions, a 20-22% cut in toxics emissions, and a 5-7% nitrogen oxide reduction. RFG must contain at least 2 wt % oxygen and no more than 1 vol % benzene. In the first 3 years of the RFG program (1995-97) refiners may use a "simple model" to certify their reformulated fuels. The model will consider only four parameters: gasoline volatility and oxygen content for VOC control and benzene content and aromatics content for toxics control. Starting Jan. 1, 1998, refiners will be required to use a "complex model: to certify their fuels. It includes additional parameters such as oxygenate type, sulfur content, olefins content, and fuel distillation parameters. EPA said the added cost of Phase 1 gasoline is expected to be 5 cents/gal and Phase 2 RFG another 1.1.5 cents/gal. API reacts The American Petroleum Institute said, "We are extremely disappointed and concerned about the EPA's plans to guarantee a market for so-called renewable fuels in the formulated gasoline program. "This proposal apparently would mandate the use of ETBE and ethanol to meet reformulated fuel specifications, even though the government itself has questioned whether ETBE makes economic sense and has indicated that ethanol makes ozone pollution worse rather than better. "In a market economy, this plan is a slap at consumers because such mandates have been demonstrated to be the least affordable or cost effective way to bring about continued improvement in air quality. "The petroleum industry already uses ethanol and ETBE in fuels where they are economically competitive with other fuel additives and where they appropriately can address environmental concerns such as carbon monoxide. "This

proposal shows a flagrant disregard for those environmental and business groups who worked together with the government on the landmark regulatory negotiation on this issue. "It is clearly a violation of that agreement which was signed in 1991 by all affected parties, including representatives of the ethanol industry. the future use of regulatory negotiation will be seriously damaged because this actin makes it clear that reg-neg is binding only on nongovernment participants." API said the EPA plan would generate an estimated federal gasoline tax revenue loss of $ 340 million/year, given ethanol's 54 cents/gal exemption from the federal excise tax on gasoline. It said the plan would generate additional state gasoline excise tax losses of $ 126-189 million, given an average annual state tax loss ranging from 20 cents to 30 cents/gal of ethanol. It said the tax losses would deprive the Federal Highway Trust Fund of money while benefiting ethanol producers, particularly Archer Daniels Midland Co. API said, "The Clean Air Act was intended to improve air quality rather than to be used as a way to insure market share for any fuel. To that end, the 1990 Clean Air Act amendments established performance standards for gasoline regardless of the oxygenate used and does not provide for preferential treatment for any oxygenate or fuel." Other views Texaco Inc. said EPA's rule will be costly, "without considering the cost effectiveness of this strategy as compared to requiring nitrogen oxide emissions reductions from other alternative sources, including large utility boilers. "Nitrogen oxide emissions from these sources can be reduced at a third the cost of reformulating gasolines and achieve eight time the number of tons of nitrogen oxide emission reduction." Texaco said EPA's order would unnecessarily increase the cost of reformulated gasoline by 2 cents/gal above the 12-14 cents/gal cost increase consumers will pay for EPA's Phase 2 RFG. "EPA has missed a valuable opportunity to provide leadership and guidance to the states in helping the nation achieve cleaner air at the lower cost," Texaco said. The company urged EPA to begin a process to develop a comprehensive nitrogen oxide policy based on the best science and most economical strategies for potential emissions reduction among autos, fuels, and large industrial boilers. The Natural Gas Supply Association said the ethanol mandate "appears to counter the Clinton administration's support for market based solutions to environmental problems." It said EPA should preserve industry's willingness to participate in regneg talks, but the

ethanol mandate "could make industries hesitate to spend valuable resources participating in a reg-neg when unhappy parties can successfully end-run the process.

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Avgas – Aff – Ethanol Reg Negs Fail/Link to disad cont’

( ) Bad history taints Ethanol Reg Negs – either there’s an anti-ethanol bias, or key players won’t show – proving you link to the net benefits.

Platt’s ’94

(Platt's Oilgram News, January 17, 1994 – lexis)

EPA expects to issue a final rule on renewable oxygenates by June.

Hemminghaus said the additional storage requirements the program would require, plus the segregation of simple and complex model RFG, "will create a logistics nightmare."

The executive director of the Oxygenated Fuels Assn., which represents methanol and ethanol producers, said all oxygenates have benefits and particular market strength. For that reason, "EPA intervention into the oxygenate market. . . is unjustified," said Fred Craft.

EPA's proposal violates negotiated agreements that produced the reform rule as well as the Clean air Act, Craft said. It interferes with the competitive marketplace "and sets a precedent adverse to industrial cooperation with future regulatory negotiations."

Furthermore, Craft said, fuel neutrality isn't inconsistent with fuel diversity. "In reality, there is no need for rigid and inflexible administrative requirements to ensure ethanol and Etbe a place in the oxygenate marketplace."

Reg-Neg: Not Likely Again

The API's DiBona said in New York that the primary reason the oil industry participated in the regulatory negotiation was to ensure certainty on the RFG provisions, and to allow for a long lead- time to make investments. "It was a tough decision last time," he said, and the ethanol issue and others "will weigh in the balance of deciding not doing it again."

( ) Reg Negs have to be biased against ethanol, or else no one will attend.

CT ’93

(Chicago Tribune -- April 14th – lexis)

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"We sincerely hope that the new administration will restore the credibility to the reformulated gasoline program and the reg-neg process by rejecting the special preferences for ethanol," the letter said.

The groups protesting the ethanol plan say corn growers, in pushing for the waiver, have gone back on their commitment to abide by the reg-neg agreement.

"If ethanol producers are rewarded for such behavior, it is highly unlikely anyone will participate in another regulatory negotiation," said Charles DiBona, president of the American Petroleum Institute.

( ) Ethanol Reg Negs lack any integrity.

Platt's ’92

(Oilgram News, October 2, 1992 – lexis)

William Becker, who heads an association of state pollution control officials, said the ethanol industry violated the "reg- neg" agreement by seeking waivers from the Administration. He said the integrity of the reg-neg process, which has been used frequently to get opposing parties to agree on regulations and thus avoid possible litigation, has been seriously compromised by the Administration's action.

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Avgas – Aff – Ethanol Reg Negs Fail/Link to disad cont’

( ) Even if Reg Negs generally work, they don’t work when they’re pro-ethanol. Cplan does not solve, and links to every net benefit.

Siegler ’97

(Ellen -- Senior Attorney, American Petroleum Institute. She has participated n both Reg Negs conducted by the EPA with the API. Duke law Journal – April -- http://www.law.duke.edu/journals/dlj/articles/DLJ46P1429.HTM)

The fuels reg neg illustrates many of the difficulties and frustrations that can arise when a reg neg process is used to resolve complex and highly political issues. Shortly after Congress amended the Clean Air Act in November 1990,9 EPA convened a reg neg to address the Act's new requirements for reformulated gasoline (RFG).10 Representatives from EPA, the Department of Energy, automobile manufacturers, petroleum refiners and marketers, the oxygenate industry, states, environmental groups and API participated in the reg neg. Because the Clean Air Act directed EPA to promulgate the RFG rules within one year,11 EPA encouraged participation by advising potential reg neg participants that the Agency would not have the time and resources to meet with them individually. For

The reg neg ended in August 1991 with an agreement on principles for EPA to follow in the forthcoming RFG rule. The RFG rule was promulgated in two stages: a main RFG example, EPA advised API that the reg neg would proceed regardless of whether or not API participated. Under these circumstances, API agreed to participate.

rule was issued on February 16, 1994;12 a supplemental RFG rule was promulgated on August 2, 1994.13 The main RFG rule raised one issue of significance to the reg neg: nitrogen oxides (NOx). Section 211(k)(2)(A) of the Clean Air Act provided that emissions of NOx arising from RFG could be no greater than such emissions from vehicles using "baseline" fuels.14 During the 1991 reg neg, there was some discussion of whether the "no NOx increase" provision of the statute allowed de minimis NOx increases. No agreement was reached on this issue, however. There was no discussion during the reg neg of NOx reductions. In February 1993, however, well into the rulemaking and much to the petroleum industry's surprise, EPA proposed to require a substantial NOx reduction. The final RFG fuels rule, issued in February 1994, incorporated a somewhat scaled back, but still substantial, requirement for NOx reduction.15 API considered this requirement a violation of the spirit of the reg neg. API felt that if EPA had intended to require NOx reductions, the issue should have been discussed during the reg neg. API chose not to challenge this requirement in legal proceedings but, in December 1995, API submitted to EPA a petition for reconsideration and repeal of the RFG NOx standard. EPA denied the petition on

EPA issued a second rule relating to RFG.17 This rule imposed an "ethanol mandate," requiring that thirty percent of the oxygen in RFG be derived from renewable sources.18 EPA acknowledged that this requirement would benefit manufacturers of ethanol, the only renewable oxygenate then produced in large quantities.19 API regarded the ethanol mandate as a betrayal of the agreement that concluded the fuels reg neg, which was designed not to favor particular fuel additives. API subsequently challenged the [*pg 1434] ethanol mandate.20 After first issuing a stay, the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia vacated the rule in April 1995.21 The court held that the ethanol mandate plainly exceeded EPA's authority under the Clean Air Act.22 In vacating the ethanol mandate, the D.C. Circuit did not March 12, 1997.16 In 1994, as a result of political pressure from the ethanol manufacturers,

address the issue of whether EPA had violated the reg neg agreement; API did not raise the issue to the court. API attorneys had cautioned petroleum industry representatives, during and after the reg neg, that they should not consider the reg neg agreement an enforceable contract; rather, the attorneys advised that the agreement should be regarded as an unenforceable "gentlemen's agreement." The recent case of USA Group Loan Services, Inc. v. Riley,23 in which the Seventh Circuit addressed in dicta the nature of reg neg agreements, demonstrates that this advice was

There can be benefits to participating in a successful reg neg. First, the opportunity for participants to discuss issues and confront each other a more creative and more practical regulatory approach than would have occurred in a traditional rulemaking process, in which parties with different, adverse positions would participate largely by submitting written comments on a proposed rule. Second, the consensus process--with its expectation of avoiding litigation over final rule--may persuade the agency to adopt a more creative legal interpretation than it might have otherwise adopted for the purpose of reaching a result that all parties agree makes sense. Third, a successful reg neg can provide greater certainty than the traditional rulemaking process that a regulation will not change between agreement and proposal or between proposal and a final rule. This certainty is extremely valuable to industry, especially if compliance entails major con- [*pg 1435] struction projects, which are costly and require years of advance planning. The fuels reg neg demonstrates, however, that these benefits are not always realized even if the reg neg ends in an agreement among the parties. For example, one of the most important benefits API sought in the fuels reg neg was a degree of certainty that the informal agreement would appropriate.24

sometimes leads to

be implemented without major changes sufficient to allow API members to plan to meet Clean Air Act fuels requirements until at least the year 2000. At the conclusion of the reg neg, API believed it had achieved this objective.

The events that occurred after completion of the reg neg--the NOx reduction requirements and the ethanol mandate, including the ensuing litigation over the ethanol mandate and the petition for reconsideration regarding the NOx requirement--taught API that this benefit can be taken away by an agency for political or other reasons. The industry also thought it had secured sufficient leadtime by reaching a reg neg agreement over three years before the start of the RFG program. However, the final RFG rule was issued two and

A second lesson is that the costs to participate in a reg neg are greater for industry than for other participants. This lesson is not new; API experienced the same phenomenon in the equipment one-half years after the reg neg agreement was signed, leaving the industry with less than one year to implement the program.

leaks reg neg. The fuels reg neg, however, placed even greater demands than the equipment leaks reg neg on the petroleum industry, and these demands seem even more significant when they are viewed in the context of the disappearing benefits. In the context of the fuels reg neg, API was required to satisfy certain resource demands. First, API had to educate other participants, some of whom had interests adverse to API's, about the production and distribution of motor vehicle fuels. API found it necessary to prepare educational materials explaining these matters, as well as statistical concepts necessary for an understanding of some of the technical issues involved.25 API had no assurance, of course, that this information would not be used outside the reg neg. API representatives also continued to divulge information by [*pg 1436] answering technical questions about refinery processes and marketing practices throughout the negotiation. A second major resource drain was the need for analysis of issues and for rapid communication within API. This need involved both staff-level personnel and high-level management representatives of API member companies. Because fuels issues are of great concern to the companies, communication was essential. A group of about twenty member company executives made themselves available to participate in lengthy conference calls every two weeks for a period of over six months.26 Another related lesson was

that environmental group participants have an

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advantage at the negotiating table. In the fuels reg neg, they were not required to educate other participants. Consequently, they did not have to establish their credibility as experts, as did most industry participants, who--in the fuels reg neg--had actually been selected because of their technical expertise. Environmental representatives also enjoyed the advantages of having well-developed negotiating skills and experience. In addition, they did not have to check back with their constituencies at every turn. State representatives

The experience of the fuels reg neg, in short, left API with the view that the costs of a reg neg can far outweigh its benefits and that the federal government can too easily find ways to walk away from a deal. shared some of these advantages with environmental representatives.

Avgas – Aff – Japan will say no – Toyota – Long version

( ) Japan will say no – Toyota

a) US engines are currently powered on avgas

FAA ’05 (US FAA Office of Environment & Energy -- Jan 11th -- Aircraft Emission Methodology -http://www.aee.faa.gov/emissions/local/AQ-hndbk/App_D.PDF)

Most general aviation aircraft are powered by piston engines, which are fueled by aviation gasoline (AvGas). Aviation gasoline has a much higher volatility than jet fuel and the fuel tanks are vented to the atmosphere resulting in significant HC evaporation. Evaporative emissions are associated with refueling, pre-flight safety procedures, and fuel venting due to diurnal temperature changes. The EPA methodology for calculating refueling losses is provided in an EPA Office of Air and Radiation memorandum from Mary Manners to Susan Willis dated October 20, 1996; Subject: Revised Methodology for Calculating the Refueling Losses for General Aviation Aircraft.

b) Toyota has sunk millions on this assumption.

Business Aviation ’02

(June 7th -http://www.aviationnow.com/avnow/news/channel_busav.jsp?view=s tory&id=news/btoyo0607.xml)

A Toyota-designed proof-of-concept (POC) single-engine aircraft made its first flight on May 31 at the Mojave, Calif., airport, flown by Scaled Composites test pilot Jon Karkow. The initial test flight was limited to 120 kt., and explored basic stability and control characteristics. Known as the Toyota Advanced Aircraft, the POC vehicle is fitted with a Lycoming engine, but may eventually fly with a new aircraft-qualified diesel powerplant. The wing -- a proprietary Toyota design -- and fuselage are each manufactured as single-piece units using carbon-winding techniques that

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promise greatly reduced production time and cost. The Japanese company has spent an estimated $50 million on the project, and apparently is committed to becoming a major general aviation manufacturer, bringing its successful automobile production techniques to the light aircraft industry. c) This is central to Toyota’s economic strategy. Travis ‘97 (Gregory Travis maintains a web-page devoted to reciprocating engines of all types -- The piston element of the NASA GAP program – Aviation Consumer – March -- http://www.primemover.org/Engines/GArticles/article2.html) Both Toyota and Orenda are taking a serious look at introducing allaluminum V8 engines to the GA scene. Toyota has certified its Lexus 350-horsepower V8 automotive engine and is busy flying it on a Piper Malibu in an exhaustive test program. Very few details about the program are available but, according to one insider, there are precious few automotive parts left in the engine. Toyota is serious about the market. Articles in the Japanese press report that Toyota intends to build an aircraft factory in the United States to build a four-seat aircraft. Is this the platform for which Toyota has been developing their engine? Are Witchita, Williamsport, and Mobile about to experience what Detroit went through in the 1970s?

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Avgas – Aff – Japan will say no – Toyota – Long version cont’

c)

If avgas disappeared, manufacturers would have to re-design.

Dowse ’05

(David – of Flight Daily News -http://www.africanpilot.co.za/AeroTechnical.php)

To date there are no additives available to replace TEL which increase the Octane rating - the additives used in automotive Lead Replacement Fuels only tackle the problem of valve seat recession and do not affect the Octane rating of the fuel. Therefore if Avgas 100LL were to disappear, the only other option currently available to owners with turbo or supercharged engines would be for the aircraft manufacturer to raise a modification to replace their engine with either a turboprop or diesel engine.

d)

This jacks manufacturers – sunk costs and re-designing.

Travis ‘97 (Gregory Travis maintains a web-page devoted to reciprocating engines of all types -- The piston element of the NASA GAP program – Aviation Consumer – March -- http://www.primemover.org/Engines/GArticles/article2.html)

Suppose we did decide that a radical redesign of the current crop of aircraft engines was technically justified. Now it's time to go to the beancounters and try and make a business case for investing millions in this new engine.

And we are talking millions: Continental will spend over $20 million developing their new diesel engine, Lycoming spent roughly the same amount (in today's dollars) developing their SCORE engine of the mid 1980s. Well over $10 million has gone into the Orenda engine over the years. If you think these numbers are impressive realize they're but a fraction of the amount Detroit would spend to develop an all-new piston engine for one of their cars.

Unfortunately, for the past decade or so, the industry hasn't needed more than about 600 new engines per year from each manufacturer. Is it realistic to sink $20 million into engine development with such a low volume production? After all, if we have a generous 10-year amortization of development costs and we ignore the time value of money, that represents over $3000 per engine sold. Even that figure is hopelessly optimistic as it assumes that, immediately, all your new engine production will switch over to the new model; an assumption that's not going to bear fruit unless your new engine represents a significant advantage over the previous models.

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Avgas – Aff – Japan will say no – Toyota – Long version cont’

e)

Japan’s government will cow-tow to Toyota – they run Keidanren which is uniquely powerful

Japan Weekly Monitor ’02 (June 3, 2002 – lexis)

Two of Japan's most powerful business organizations, the Federation of Economic Organizations (Keidanren) and the Japan Federation of Employers Associations (Nikkeiren), merged Tuesday, with Keidanren as the surviving group. The new organization, the Japan Business Federation (JBF), is also called the Japan Keidanren. The JBF elected Hiroshi Okuda, chairman of Toyota Motor Corp. and the last Nikkeiren chairman, its first chairman during an inaugural general meeting. Okuda is also a member of a key government panel, the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, which is chaired by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. ''With the aim of bringing about vitality and attractiveness to Japan, we will seek to create an environment in which individuals and corporations can demonstrate their abilities,'' Okuda said in an address. Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa and Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Takeo Hiranuma attended the inaugural meeting as guests. Nikkeiren was disbanded after its final meeting earlier in the day. Shiokawa said in an address that the JBF ''can be a control tower that binds up the business community.'' ''I would like to support the organization,'' said Hiranuma. The JBF integrates Keidanren's functions of making proposals to the government on economic policies and those of Nikkeiren, which mainly involved wage negotiations and labor relations. It has a total of 1,534 corporate and organizational members. At the meeting, the group adopted three main resolutions for its activities. They are to promote management reforms among corporations to strengthen their international competitiveness, to create new business and employment opportunities, and to work with the government on launching a new round of trade liberalization talks at the World Trade Organization and bilateral free trade agreement schemes with other nations. The meeting also approved 15 corporate executives as vice chairmen, including Canon Inc. President Fujio Mitarai and Masaharu Shibata, president of NGK Insulators Ltd. Keidanren Chairman Takashi Imai, who also serves as chairman of Nippon Steel Corp., was appointed honorary chairman of the JBF. The lineup of JBF executives had been announced earlier. Since its establishment in 1946, Keidanren has mediated differences in opinion among its various member industries and businesses. Having represented the interests of big business in Japan, Keidanren's proposals and requests had considerable influence on Japanese political trends. Its second chairman, the late Taizo Ishizaka, who was president of Toshiba Corp., helped force the resignation of Prime Minister Ichiro Hatoyama in 1956. He was often called Japan's ''shadow prime minister'' or ''the prime minister of the business quarters.''

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Avgas – Aff -- Toyota Powerful/Important to Japan’s Decision

( ) Toyota is key – its CEO is Chair of Keidanren and is also on Koizumi’s Council for Economic Policy.

CNN ’02 (Cnn.com – May 28th – lexis)

They are the Federation of Economic Organizations, known as Keidanren, and the Japan Federation of Employers' Associations, known as Nikkeiren.

The new organization, called the Japan Business Federation (JBF), will also be known as the new Japan Keidanren, Kyodo news agency reported.

It brings together some of the most powerful business executives in Japan.

It will be chaired by Toyota Motor Corp. chairman Hiroshi Okuda, who is now the Nikkeiren chairman and a member of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's key Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy.

( ) Toyota is key to Keidanren

Japan Economic Newswire ’03

(July 11, 2003 – lexis)

Rato told Hiroshi Okuda, chairman of the Japan Business Federation (Nippon Keidanren), that he wants to see Japan increase imports of housing equipment, industrial machinery and telecommunications equipment from Spain because Japan's trade surplus with Spain is large, Nippon Keidanren officials accompanying Okuda said.

Rato, who also serves as deputy prime minister, also complained of Japan's complicated distribution system, they said.

Okuda replied that Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is making efforts to reform Japan's distribution system, they said.

Okuda, also chairman of Toyota Motor Corp., is visiting Spain as part of an eight-day European trip, leading a powerful Japanese business mission.

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Avgas – Aff -- Keidanren key to Japan’s Decision

( ) Keidanren key to the agenda – most powerful lobby.

Asian Political News ’04

(December 13, 2004 – lexis)

In September, Wen voiced strong dissatisfaction with Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni at a gathering in Beijing also attended by prominent Japanese business leader Hiroshi Okuda, who heads the Japan Business Federation, the country's most powerful business lobby.

(Note: Japan Business Federation is a synonym for Keidanren)

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Avgas – Aff -- Japan will side with Keidanren over the US

( ) Japan will side with Keidanren over the US

Nation ’98

(Emerging Markets Datafile; October 23, 1998 – lexis)

But over the last two months, the US stance has collapsed. The condemnation of the US-backed IMF approach is now universal. The globalisation of the crisis has undermined the argument about the failure of Asian capitalism. The bailout of a hedge fund has shown the dishonesty behind American arguments about crony capitalism, moral hazard, over- leveraging, the importance of letting markets work, and the need to let bad banks fail. The Russian crash has struck deep into US banking. The Brazilian wobble has brought the crisis onto the American continent. Against this background, over the last three weeks, Thailand has swivelled back again. Japan announced the US$ 30 billion Miyazawa Plan for Asia. Days later, the head of Japan's powerful Keidanren business federation arrived in Bangkok dispensing reassurances of Japanese support. Tarrin has beaten the pack to Tokyo with his shopping list for help. His long stay (four days) suggests serious talking, not just a photo-op. The Miyazawa Plan signals that Japan can no longer leave the job of cleaning up its backyard to the Americans. ''Japanese banks have huge bad loans in Asia,'' notes Professor Kiichi Fujiwara of Tokyo University, ''it's not just your crisis but our crisis too.'' A senior official in the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) stresses that Japan took a lead role in crisis management from the beginning. The Japanese government convened an urgent meeting in Tokyo in August 1997, ''before the IMF was in

the Indonesian crisis, Japan moved first and proposed the Asian Monetary Fund. Only when the US squashed this proposal, was Japan shouldered aside. So is the Miyazawa Fund just the Asian Monetary Fund reborn under different circumstances? The official announcement manages to be both very brief (3 double-spaced pages) and very broad -- it envisages almost any kind of financial aid, even currency support. This is, the MoF official confesses, ''a very tricky issue. The IMF is expected to play a major role. But as to the future role of the IMF, views are mixed at this stage. Perhaps that is why the Japanese government has been very cautious about announcing details of the Miyazawa Plan''. But was it discussed with Washington in advance? ''There had been some informal exchanges.'' The US' terse response to the Plan suggests that it is still a matter for negotiation between Tokyo and Washington. Katsuhiko Meshino, a Nikkei group journalist specialising in Southeast Asia, is less constrained by diplomatic nicety. ''If Asia does not revive, Japan's industries will suffer. Also, a stable Southeast Asia is a big asset for Japanese foreign policy. Japan has to face China and the US on its own.'' ''The Miyazawa Plan is not a new idea,'' says Professor Yonosuke Hara of Tokyo University, ''Eisuke Sakakibara vice finance minister -- 'Mr Yen' has had this idea for a long time.'' Late last year, the MoF sent a team around Southeast Asia which proposed the idea. But with Washington in such an aggressive mood, any announcement was delayed. So is the scheme a challenge to the IMF monopoly? ''Just don't call it the Asian Monetary Fund, that's all,'' says Professor Hara. There are also some quiet Japanese challenges to other aspects of the American vision for Southeast Asia. Sakakibara has been instrumental in setting up a new research institute, affiliated to the Asian Development Bank, but located in the heart of Tokyo's government quarter. The institute's brief is to examine the picture''. After

alternative models for managing the international economy. In May, a high-powered team of Japanese officials, academics and businessmen compiled a report on ''Lessons from the Asian Currency Crisis''. The report's explanation of the crisis is conventional: too much money was sunk into countries where banking and regulatory systems were too weak. But the recommendations diverge from the prevailing American model for the international financial market. Countries should liberalise flows of direct investment, the report advises, but impose controls on short-term capital flows. The MoF official agrees: ''In the post-war phase, Japan opened the door to foreign investment but not short-term capital. And it worked well.'' The report supports the Chilean scheme for managing capital flows. The journalist Meshino goes further: ''Many Japanese businessmen support Mahathir's capital controls. They understand why he needs to do this.'' A senior official in the Economic Planning Agency (EPA) cautiously agrees: ''Some form of short-term controls are needed so that smaller countries can regain control over macro-economic policy.'' But he would prefer the Tobin tax -- a levy on international financial transfers designed to choke off speculative short-term movements. ''It would definitely be good for smaller economies. But will it be good for the US? That is the question.'' The MoF official is doubtful about such a tax, but wants some clampdown on the hedge funds, if only through better disclosure. But he wonders if the scheme currently up for international discussion has any chance of success: ''The US will probably object, because of their dominant neo-classical approach and their faith in the market mechanism. Remember Clinton's speech to the G22 meeting wanted reform of the international financial system 'to ensure the free international flow of capital'.'' The final paragraph of the report on 'Lessons from the Asian Currency Crisis' notes: ''One of the factors contributing to the Asian currency crisis can be described as the region's overdependence on the dollar''. Again there is a long-term Sakakibara scheme to increase the usage of the yen in Asia.

The Keidanren endorses the idea.

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Avgas – Aff -- Answers to Consult EU

( ) British veto

a)

The only producers of Avgas for the US market are British.

AOPA ’04

(Aircraft Owners and Pilot Association -- Sept 30th -http: //www.aopa.org/whatsnew/newsitems/2004/040930avgas.html)

"All the TEL in the world is produced only in the United Kingdom," said Luis Gutierrez, AOPA director of regulatory and certification policy. "All the TEL used within the United States to refine avgas is imported."

b) British government will defend British oil interests – his rejection of foreign arm-twisting on energy issues confirms.

Perry ’03

(David Perry -- Aberdeen Press and Journal November 20)

He said: "Will you draw an end to the uncertainty on this matter by making it a red-line issue in the coming negotiations?" Mr Blair said the Government had already made it "absolutely clear" that there was no question of the EU gaining such powers, adding: "It will be one of the issues we will raise in the course of the negotiation we are about to enter into and I have no doubt that as with other things we will be successful." SNP Westminster leader Alex Salmond said: "The Prime Minister yet again refused to unequivocally state that energy was to be a red-line issue and concerns remain that he is leaving room for a sell-out of Scotland's vital interests." Gordon MP Malcolm Bruce agreed that "the Prime Minister has not given a categorical assurance" and warned: "Any UK

Government that does not protect offshore oil and gas would be pretty crazy." But Labour MPs sought to play down the significance of Mr Blair's words. Aberdeen North's Malcolm Savidge claimed: "The Prime Minister gave a very encouraging answer making it clear that we would be strongly defending British control over our offshore oil and gas industry." Aberdeen Central's Frank Doran said: "In every discussion I have had with Government ministers they have been emphatic that this is being opposed and there is no intention of allowing any European intervention which affects

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our policy on licences or taxes on North Sea oil and gas or any other aspects of the industry." Mr Blair's equivocation followed a pledge from Energy Minister Stephen Timms at an earlier UKOOA reception in Westminster that the Government understood industry concerns and would continue to press them in the negotiations.

(Note: UKOOA = UK Offshore Operators Association)

c)

their veto blocks the plan – QMV not in place.

AFX

12-10

(AFX.com – 2003 -- lexis)

On Tuesday, Italy presented updated proposals for a new treaty, retaining clauses introduced last month that would remove member states' vetos on foreign policy, but that was not acceptable to London. "This remains unacceptable. There can be no question of QMV in common foreign policy," a British diplomat said, referring to qualified majority voting, which removes the right of an individual EU country to veto a decision. The UK has laid out a number of "red lines" on the constitution, notably the right of veto in such EU policy areas as foreign and defense policy and taxation.

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Avgas – Aff -- Answers to Consult NATO

( ) British veto

a)

The only producers of Avgas for the US market are British.

AOPA ’04 (Aircraft Owners and Pilot Association -- Sept 30th -http: //www.aopa.org/whatsnew/newsitems/2004/040930avgas.html)

"All the TEL in the world is produced only in the United Kingdom," said Luis Gutierrez, AOPA director of regulatory and certification policy. "All the TEL used within the United States to refine avgas is imported."

b)

Blair will defend British oil interests – his rejection of foreign arm-twisting on energy issues confirms.

Perry ‘03 (David Perry -- Aberdeen Press and Journal November 20)

He said: "Will you draw an end to the uncertainty on this matter by making it a red-line issue in the coming negotiations?" Mr Blair said the Government had already made it "absolutely clear" that there was no question of the EU gaining such powers, adding: "It will be one of the issues we will raise in the course of the negotiation we are about to enter into and I have no doubt that as with other things we will be successful." SNP Westminster leader Alex Salmond said: "The Prime Minister yet again refused to unequivocally state that energy was to be a red-line issue and concerns remain that he is leaving room for a sell-out of Scotland's vital interests." Gordon MP Malcolm Bruce agreed that "the Prime Minister has not given a categorical assurance" and warned: "Any UK Government that does not protect offshore oil and gas would be pretty crazy." But Labour MPs sought to play down the significance of Mr Blair's words.

Aberdeen North's Malcolm Savidge claimed: "The Prime Minister gave a very encouraging answer making it clear that we would be strongly defending British control over our offshore oil and gas industry." Aberdeen Central's Frank Doran said: "In every discussion I have had with Government ministers they have been emphatic that this is being opposed and there is no intention of allowing any European intervention which affects our policy on licences or taxes on North Sea oil and gas or any other aspects of the industry." Mr Blair's equivocation followed a pledge from Energy Minister Stephen Timms at an earlier UKOOA reception in Westminster that the Government understood industry concerns and would continue to press them in the negotiations.

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(Note: UKOOA = UK Offshore Operators Association)

c)

NATO allows Member Stats to veto actions

MSNBC 2003

(November 6th)

PRESS: Senator, General Wesley Clark made a speech -- gave a speech today in which he outlined the steps he thinks are necessary to get things under better control in post-war Iraq, saying first we ought to end the monopoly on occupation, bring in some other forces, make it a NATO force, develop the right force to win a guerrilla war -- you said something like that just a couple of moments ago -- and give Iraqis a greater stake in reconstruction. Sound like General Clark has got a better plan than George Bush? MCCAIN: No, but I -- on the first point, which is probably the most critical point, Bill, in fact, I think it will be a cold day in (UNINTELLIGIBLE) when the French decide that they're going to send troops to Iraq. And as you know, in NATO, one country, a member of NATO can veto any NATO activity. I'm very happy that NATO is in Afghanistan and that's a very important mission they're carrying out. But the possibility of that is very remote.

Avgas – Aff -- Answers to Consult Russia

( ) They’ll say no – Aircraft manufacturers

a)

Iylushin is poised to sell GA aircraft to the US.

Flight International ’99

(December 1, 1999 – lexis)

Russian light aircraft designed for general aviation - excluding the aerobatic Yaks - are virtually unknown in the West. The territory traditionally claimed by Cessna, Piper and Grob has not, until now, been challenged by the Russian aircraft industry.

The SV Ilyushin Research and Production Complex aims to change the status quo and has been involved in the design and development of the Il-103 since the early 1990s. Work has continued to the point where US (FAR 23) and Russian certification has been won.

The philosophy has been to produce a simple, versatile, multipurpose, single piston-engined light aircraft, the appeal of which would lie in its quality, purchase price and operating costs, rather than in defining a new level of technical innovation. The construction is consequently conventional - all metal, with a semi-monocoque fuselage and a wing of riveted spars and ribs. Composites are used only for non-load-bearing fairings.

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To add worldwide appeal to the design, major components have been bought in, bringing with them worldwide support. The engine is a Teledyne Continental 1O -360ES producing 160kW (210hp) at 2,800rpm. It is fitted with a Hartzell two -bladed constant-speed propeller, and the option of Western flight instruments and communications and navigation equipment is offered.

The primary flying controls are conventional in design and operation, being mechanically linked by rods to the ailerons and elevator and cables to the rudder. There is electrically operated pitch trim, but no rudder or aileron trim other than fixed pre-set tabs. The flaps are plain hinged, single slotted and manually operated.The fixed undercarriage is similarly straightforward, with spring steel legs, a castoring nosewheel and hydraulically operated disc brakes with an anti-skid system for the main wheels. Two wing tanks hold 200 litres (50USgal), of fuel. A fuel reservoir is fed by gravity from the tanks and an electric fuel pump supplies the engine injectors from the reservoir. Clearly, the Il-103 is essentially 25year-old technology.

b) If avgas disappeared, manufacturers would have to re-design.

Dowse ’05

(David – of Flight Daily News -- http://www.africanpilot.co.za/AeroTechnical.php)

To date there are no additives available to replace TEL which increase the Octane rating - the additives used in automotive Lead Replacement Fuels only tackle the problem of valve seat recession and do not affect the Octane rating of the fuel. Therefore if Avgas 100LL were to disappear, the only other option currently available to owners with turbo or supercharged engines would be for the aircraft manufacturer to raise a modification to replace their engine with either a turboprop or diesel engine.

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Avgas – Aff -- Answers to Consult Russia cont’

c) This jacks manufacturers – sunk costs and re-designing.

Travis ‘97 (Gregory Travis maintains a web-page devoted to reciprocating engines of all types -- The piston element of the NASA GAP program – Aviation Consumer – March -- http://www.primemover.org/Engines/GArticles/article2.html)

Suppose we did decide that a radical redesign of the current crop of aircraft engines was technically justified. Now it's time to go to the beancounters and try and make a business case for investing millions in this new engine.

And we are talking millions: Continental will spend over $20 million developing their new diesel engine, Lycoming spent roughly the same amount (in today's dollars) developing their SCORE engine of the mid 1980s. Well over $10 million has gone into the Orenda engine over the years. If you think these numbers are impressive realize they're but a fraction of the amount Detroit would spend to develop an all-new piston engine for one of their cars.

Unfortunately, for the past decade or so, the industry hasn't needed more than about 600 new engines per year from each manufacturer. Is it realistic to sink $20 million into engine development with such a low volume production? After all, if we have a generous 10-year amortization of development costs and we ignore the time value of money, that represents over $3000 per engine sold. Even that figure is hopelessly optimistic as it assumes that, immediately, all your new engine production will switch over to the new model; an assumption that's not going to bear fruit unless your new engine represents a significant advantage over the previous models.

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Avgas – Aff -- Answers to Consult Russia cont’

d) Putin will defend these interests – he staked his credibility on Russian aircraft exports.

From Putin ‘5 (2-22-2005 – BBC Monitoring International Reports -- Global News Wire - Asia Africa Intelligence Wire – lexis)

Incidentally, things are certainly not brilliant in Russia's aircraft-manufacturing industry. Putin drew attention to this immediately. (Putin, addressing meeting) Negative trends are clear and worrying. We can see for ourselves how civil aviation products are becoming less competitive. It is also clear that they are unattractive and do not meet international standards of comfort, which does nothing to help strengthen our position on international markets. This includes our traditional and well-penetrated market in the CIS market. In the industry itself equipment is wearing out, the workforce continues to be lost and people's skill levels are falling. What is particularly bad is that the level of technology is falling, both in production and in design. (Trubetskoy) Huge production capacities are not infrequently idle and the equipment is becoming dilapidated, the president recalled. A new strategy is needed. (Putin) If we count only on the internal market, on the internal demand, this will not ensure stable employment and an even load on various enterprises. The modern aviation market is a global market. The state will bring colossal resources into play to successfully progress the output on such a large-scale market. The competition here is not among individual national companies, but among whole aviation superpowers. Second, one cannot rely exclusively on protectionist measures when fighting for this market. We have had reason to convince ourselves repeatedly that this is a direct path towards stagnation and lowering the quality of one of Russia's hi-tech industries. (Trubetskoy) Minister of Industry (and Energy Viktor Khristenko) fully agrees with the president. If nothing is done, the aviation industry will soon degrade for good. There is only one way out. (Khristenko) The central idea here is to set up a unified aviation-manufacturing company. The goal is to retain technological independence when creating new generations of military and civilian output, to preserve Russia's position on the world military aircraft market, to return to the civilian aircraft market. (Trubetskoy) The minister explained that the new super-holding would be a three-level one. The head company would be on top, defining strategy and resolving key financial issues. The second level would consist of sub-holdings, producing various types of ready output, some, for instance, producing civilian airliners, others producing combat aircraft and yet others helicopters and so on. Finally, the last level would be factories, producing certain parts, assemblies and sub-assemblies. If everything goes according to plan, Russia will have trebled the volume of its aviation industry market by 2015, having brought it to 16bn dollars. The percentage of military and civilian production would be fifty-fifty. It is now 70 to 30 per cent in favour of military output. Business and the state will be partners in the new holding. However, up to 70 per cent of the shares will remain under the control of state capital. It is proposed to finally work out the blueprint for the unified holding by the end of the next year. Khristenko's speech gave rise to tumultuous debate. Some regional leaders had doubts concerning the productiveness of this idea, or, at the very least, called for extreme caution. (Mintimer Shaymiyev, president of the Republic of Tatarstan) We should indeed have gathered even earlier to solve this problem. Given the whole complexity of the country's economy and given what you said about it being time to take the final decision, well, you can't be more precise than that, this must be done. However, are we not in too much haste? (Trubetskoy) Having heard both sides out, the president gave the floor to the aviation constructors, who personally experience all the delights of the current state of fragmentation. They were in solidarity as never before. After two hours of conferring, Vladimir Putin summed up the results. (Putin) Whether Russia is going to be able to be an intellectually weighty country and, all in all, whether it will have an intellectual future altogether, or whether we really will continue to slip down further, as my colleagues noted, to the level of a third-rate country, to the level of someone's raw materials appendage and so forth will depend on how we tackle this issue. Sectors like aviation and space, in which billions of dollars have been invested along with the intellectual capabilities of whole generations, as I have already said, should obviously be paid special attention by the state. If we implement the plan we are discussing today - and I have no reason to doubt that we will - namely the setting up of a targeted corporate structure in the form of a holding with the following basic elements: civil aviation, military transport aviation and special aviation, military

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aviation, automated and unmanned systems, managing companies, engineering centres, a leasing company - on which, incidentally, we spend 250m dollars a year, and will continue this work - testing centres, research centres and training centres; if all of this were to form a strong and powerful arm in the development of the domestic aviation industry, then we will get the result we want.

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Avgas – Aff -- Answers to Consult Russia cont’

e)

Even if Putin does not block -- Ilyushin’s President will. He has incredible influence, and no fear of bucking the US.

Journal of Commerce ’97

(November 10, 1997 – lexis)

Once the most influential man in President Boris Yeltsin's entourage, Victor Ilyushin is now the chief of public relations for Gazprom as Russia's most powerful company defends its Iranian dealings from threatened U.S. sanctions.

The sanctions could halt a $1 billion convertible bond issue that is being prepared for U.S. investors by Goldman Sachs.

Gazprom officials confirm that Mr. Ilyushin was appointed in May to a seat on Gazprom's management board. The sources say he is responsible for the energy producer's information and investor relations effort.

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Avgas – Aff – A-to Bush Good -- AOPA Turn ( ) AOPA Turn a) They are key to the Agenda – tons of power Key ’01 (Chad -- Southern Methodist University School of Law -- Journal of Air Law and Commerce – Spring) 1. The "NRA of the Air" - Why the General Aviation Lobby is So Powerful Traditionally, the general aviation constituency has enjoyed unparalleled success in impressing legislators with its views. AOPA is the major focus group for the interests of general aviation and has even been described as the "NRA of the air" because of its success in Washington. 181 There are several reasons for the political success that the AOPA enjoys. General aviation is a very passionate issue for members of Congress because many of them are pilots or ex-pilots themselves. Many members of Congress also utilize private airplanes to travel in their home states for pleasure, business, and campaigning. 182 AOPA also derives a substantial amount of power from its approximately 350,000 members. 183 A substantial number of AOPA members are also in the segment of the general population with the most political clout and the most money. Because of these factors, the AOPA presents significant opposition for other groups who lobby for legislation that could hurt general aviation. In fact, even well funded groups, such as the Air Transport Association (the lobbying arm of the commercial airlines), think twice before directly opposing the AOPA because of bruising political battles in the past. 184

b) They like the plan. AOPA ’02

(American Owners & Pilots Association -- Feb – World Fax -http://www.iaopa.org/info/worldfax/worldfax0202.pdf

AOPA-US efforts in working with its Congress helped secure more than $8.5 million for FAA propulsion and fuels research programs for this year. Although current supplies and production of 100 low lead (100LL) aviation gasoline are secure for the near term, AOPA has been actively involved in advancing and encouraging alternative fuels research by the FAA and the industry by participation in cooperative industry organizations. To provide a possible alternative in the short term, AOPA has promoted interim-use fuel specifications, such as the recently readopted ASTM unleaded 91/98 specification, which could act as a substitute for about 30% of the 100LL consumed each year. “AOPA remains hopeful that these cooperative research and testing efforts will yield a total unleaded replacement for 100LL avgas without expensive engine modifications or restrictive aircraft operational limits, “according to AOPA’s Director of Regulatory and Certification Policy Lance Nuckolls.

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Avgas – Aff – A-to Bush Good -- Plan Seen as a huge boost to the Ethanol ( ) Ethanol Turn a) Ethanol Sector likes the plan – replacing avgas viewed as a huge growth opportunity Ethanol Producers & Consumers ’99 (EPAC Newsletter – Sept -- http://www.mailarchive.com/[email protected]/msg54691.html) Ethanol producers may soon be able to expand their market beyond gasoline and into aviation fuels, thanks to a new fuel developed at the University of North Dakota's Energy and Environmental Research Center (EERC). The new high octane fuel known as AGE85, has been recently certified by the Federal Aviation Administration, and can be used to fuel piston engine aircraft. The fuel uses a significant amount of ethanol and contains some biodiesel for lubrication purposes. The biodiesel is derived from a variety of agricultural products such as soy beans, sunflower, cottonseed, cooking grease and animal fat, stated Ted Aulich, research manager in charge of the National Alternative Fuels Laboratory which formulated the fuel. Traditional aviation fuel used for piston-engine aircraft contained almost four times the lead of conventional gasoline before lead was banned in 1973. Because it is difficult to achieve the high octane level -- around 100 -- that aviation fuel needs, EPA agreed to allow the leaded aviation fuel to be used until an economic alternative could be developed and commercialized. "We believe that AGE85 is the economic alternative (to conventional aviation fuel)," said Aulich. "Based on the current price of pure ethanol at 95 c/gal., AGE85 is expected to sell at the pump for about $1.10 gal. compared to the current avgas (aviation gasoline) price of $2/gal." The current market for aviation gasoline in the U.S. is approximately 600 to 700 million gallons per year. With other nations also showing a strong interest in AGE85, the demand for ethanol could be significantly expanded, commented Aulich.

b) They’re key to the agenda Eckert ‘02

(Toby – “Small Ethanol” -- CNS – April 18th – lexis)

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Avgas – Aff – A-to Bush Good -- Delegation ( ) Delegation a) No link and turn – when delegated, Bush cannot get blame, and can only take credit.

b) this is true for the FAA HELICOPTER NEWS ’00 (May 19, 2000 – lexis) Air Tour operators are fighting the latest regulatory assault from the National Park Service (NPS) and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The two federal government agencies last month promulgated new regulations that would result in further restrictions on commercial air tours over the national parks. The FAA regs are the object of a lawsuit brought by the Mountain States Legal Foundation on behalf of the United States Air Tour Association (USATA) and seven air tour operators: Air Vega Airlines, Scenic Airlines, Papillon Grand Canyon Helicopters, Grand Canyon Airlines, AirStar Helicopters, Las Vegas Helicopters, and Maverick Helicopters. The NPS regs, Director's Order #47 (DO47), likewise, are being vigorously opposed by USATA, Helicopter Association International (HAI), and the National Air Transportation Association (NATA). The FAA regs are part of a "final rule" and thus have the force of law. They took effect earlier this month. Director's Order #47 (DO47), by contrast, seeks to clarify NPS's authority to regulate noise within the national parks. The agency has sought public comment on the order, but has not made clear its ultimate intentions. The deadline for comment passed last week. If the NPS implements its directive, HAI, USATA, NATA and the air tour operators have all indicated that they might sue and/or seek congressional redress. These groups and companies charge the NPS with unlawfully seeking to arrogate to itself sole authority to regulate noise--and, by extension, air tour operations--in the national parks. They say Director's Order #47 is the latest in a long series of hostile and unresponsive actions the NPS has taken against them. "Rather than developing plans to share our national parks with all Americans, the NPS is trying to exclude air tour visitors before the 'managing' process even starts," says HAI President Roy Resavage. "There are some conciliatory sounding gestures in there," he adds, "but what they basically mean is, 'We will permit you to negotiate the terms of your surrender.'" The FAA regs, similarly, contravene federal law and thus constitute an abuse of regulatory power, say the air tour operators. "We cannot sit by and permit these agencies to ignore the will of Congress, to kill an important and vibrant part of the economy of the rural West, and to close the Grand Canyon to visits by elderly and physically infirm visitors, who depend on air tours because of their inability walk and hike," says USATA president Steve Bassett. Congressional Intent At issue is congressional intent, which is not always so readily apparent due to the compromises and tradeoffs inherent in the legislative process. Indeed, Congress, as is its wont, clearly sought to split the difference between the two warring camps: Clinton administration environmentalists who run the regulatory agencies, and air tour operators. Consequently, both groups can and do cite federal law in support of their position. Still, there is little doubt that the regulatory agencies are attempting to achieve

through bureaucratic fiat what cannot be achieved legislatively. However, it is not clear that there is sufficient legal grounds--or political will--to overturn their edicts. This may well be just what a politically skittish Congress wanted when it passed these laws: sufficient ambiguity to avoid responsibility for the necessary and tough follow-up decisions, which it can then blame on the bureaucrats. This may make for bad public policy and unaccountable decision-making, but it surely helps at election time when lawmakers can point the finger and assign blame for controversial decisions. Politics According to the FAA, its regs are "part of an overall strategy to control aircraft noise in the park environment and to assist the NPS [with restoring] the natural quiet and experience of the park."

116

Avgas – Aff – A-to Econ/Politics Links – Oil & Manufacturers w/n be angered by the plan ( ) Industry will not be angered by the plan – manufacturers & oil companies used to have a vested interest, but no longer do. Merritt 2000

(Dr. Paul Merritt received his PhD in Mechanical Engineering from the University of New Mexico. Retired from Boeing-SVS where he was a Senior Technical Fellow. SPIE Fellow -- Avweb -- Nov 29th -- http://www.avweb.com/news/maint/182833-1.html)

Before I make suggestions about possible solutions, let me explain why there was not a solution to the problem when the transportation industry was first told to "get the lead out." At this time, the aviation manufacturers had complete confidence that the petroleum industry would pull off a miracle and come up with a 100-octane fuel that didn't use lead. Thus, the industry kept making planes that must have 100-octane fuel and it continues to do so today.

Actually, the petroleum companies worked very hard to try and pull off that "miracle." I have heard that over 40,000 different compounds were experimented with in the attempt to replace lead. Some of those compounds proved successful in increasing the octane but at the same time caused other problems, such as causing corrosion or proving to be more toxic than lead. Still, this effort continued for a couple of decades.

Eventually, the demand for aviation gasoline was mostly supplanted by the demand for jet fuel, and the oil companies gave up on a replacement for 100LL. The engine and airframe manufacturers knew the oil companies were no longer attempting to replace the lead a few years back, but most of us plane owners and operators did not. These manufactures did not publicize this fact. I can understand the silence. I doubt I'd tell anyone I made a product that needed a fuel that was going the way of the dinosaurs.

117

Avgas – Aff – A-to Econ/Politics Links – GA downstream users w/n be angered by the plan

( ) General Aviation operators would not mind the plan – they support searching for simple alternatives to Avgas.

AOPA ‘02 (American Owners & Pilots Association -- Feb – World Fax -- http://www.iaopa.org/info/worldfax/worldfax0202.pdf

AOPA-US efforts in working with its Congress helped secure more than $8.5 million for FAA propulsion and fuels research programs for this year. Although current supplies and production of 100 low lead (100LL) aviation gasoline are secure for the near term, AOPA has been actively involved in advancing and encouraging alternative fuels research by the FAA and the industry by participation in cooperative industry organizations. To provide a possible alternative in the short term, AOPA has promoted interim-use fuel specifications, such as the recently readopted ASTM unleaded 91/98 specification, which could act as a substitute for about 30% of the 100LL consumed each year. “AOPA remains hopeful that these cooperative research and testing efforts will yield a total unleaded replacement for 100LL avgas without expensive engine modifications or restrictive aircraft operational limits, “according to AOPA’s Director of Regulatory and Certification Policy Lance Nuckolls.

118

Avgas – Aff – Politics – Plan = Popular with the Public ( ) plan is popular with the public. Shauck 2000

(et al, Max Shauck is the head of the Baylor Institute for Aviation Sciences,. “The Present and Future Potential of Biomass Fuels in Aviation”. Paper presented at the First World Biomass Conference, Seville, Spain -- http://www3.baylor.edu/bias/publications/bomassfuels.pdf)

119

Avgas – Aff – Politics – Plan = popular with Environmentalists

( ) Plan popular with Environmentalists – they really like alternatives to avgas Parker ’02

(IAN PARKER -- TITLE: New fuel or new engine? Interavia, Business & Technology 57 36-8 May 2002)

Many general aviation specialists agree that today's most common piston engine fuel (avgas 100LL) will be unobtainable or very expensive within ten years. Despite the fact that LL stands for "low lead", it should stand for "lots of lead" because the avgas contains a great deal of the additive and is thus high on the target list of environmentalists worldwide. It may be low in lead compared with the highly-leaded aviation fuels which preceded it, but it contains about four times as much lead as the longbanned leaded fuel for cars.

120

Avgas – Aff – Politics – A-to Bush Bad -- AOPA Turn ( ) AOPA Turn a) they’re key to the agenda. Key ’01 (Chad -- Southern Methodist University School of Law -- Journal of Air Law and Commerce – Spring) 1. The "NRA of the Air" - Why the General Aviation Lobby is So Powerful Traditionally, the general aviation constituency has enjoyed unparalleled success in impressing legislators with its views. AOPA is the major focus group for the interests of general aviation and has even been described as the "NRA of the air" because of its success in Washington. 181 There are several reasons for the political success that the AOPA enjoys. General aviation is a very passionate issue for members of Congress because many of them are pilots or ex-pilots themselves. Many members of Congress also utilize private airplanes to travel in their home states for pleasure, business, and campaigning. 182 AOPA also derives a substantial amount of power from its approximately 350,000 members. 183 A substantial number of AOPA members are also in the segment of the general population with the most political clout and the most money. Because of these factors, the AOPA presents significant opposition for other groups who lobby for legislation that could hurt general aviation. In fact, even well funded groups, such as the Air Transport Association (the lobbying arm of the commercial airlines), think twice before directly opposing the AOPA because of bruising political battles in the past. 184

b) They hate the plan AOPA ’04

(Aircraft Owners and Pilot Association -- August 09, 2004 -http://www.aopa.org/whatsnew/regulatory/regunlead.html)

In the early 1990s, AOPA lobbied forcefully and successfully to prevent the Environmental Protection Agency from banning the use of leaded aviation gasoline. However, the EPA banned all other leaded gasoline, so general aviation was left as the nation's sole user of a leaded motor fuel.

(Note the AOPA is the Aircraft Owners and Pilot Association)

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Avgas – Aff – Politics – A-to Bush Bad -- AOPA Turn cont’

( ) AOPA is specifically opposed to ethanol in General Aviation Lynch ‘8

(Kerry Lynch, managing editor of The Weekly of BUSINESS AVIATION and recipient of the Aviation Journalism Excellence Award. Aviation Week – March 24th -http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=busav&id=news/LEAD0324 8.xml)

AOPA noted there has been a push for use of automobile gasoline, or mogas, since some aircraft have been approved to use automotive fuel. But, automotive gasoline producers are increasingly using ethanol - currently about 51 percent - an ingredient that presents a hazard to aircraft. AOPA said adding ethanol/grain alcohol to gasoline could lead to vapor lock, cause corrosion, possibly introduce water into the fuel system and reduce the energy content of the fuel. "The increasing use of ethanol in automotive fuel is making it very difficult for aircraft authorized to operate on auto fuel to find a safe supply of fuel."

( ) AOPA opposed to the plan Lynch ‘8

(Kerry Lynch, managing editor of The Weekly of BUSINESS AVIATION and recipient of the Aviation Journalism Excellence Award. Aviation Week – March 24th -http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=busav&id=news/LEAD0324 8.xml)

Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association last week urged caution in imposing further restrictions on the use of lead in aviation gasoline, stressing that no simple alternative exists for 100 octane leaded aviation gasoline (100LL). "Any change in the current fuel standard will have a direct impact on the safety of flight," AOPA told the Environmental Protection Agency. The association was responding to a notice from EPA in November seeking comment on a petition from the Friends of the Earth (FOTE) environmental group seeking a study of the health and environmental impacts of lead emissions from general aviation and also consideration of a new emissions standard (BA, Nov. 19/231).

( ) AOPA will put its foot down if even a single plane is burdened by the Aff regulation. Lynch ‘8 (Kerry Lynch, managing editor of The Weekly of BUSINESS AVIATION and recipient of the Aviation Journalism Excellence Award. Aviation Week – March 24th -http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=busav&id=news/LEAD03248.xml)

Any replacement fuel, AOPA said, must be able to work for all new and existing aircraft, since it would likely be the only fuel retailers would be willing to sell or produce since aviation gasoline is considered a low volume, specialty fuel.

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Avgas – Aff – GA = key to the agenda

( ) General Aviation key to agenda – they wield tons of influence. Newsweek ’02

(January 21, 2002 – lexis)

Flight schools, already suffering a 20 percent drop in enrollment since September, worry that an overreaction to the Bishop incident could hurt the industry even more. Congress is considering a $7.5 billion bailout, but a handful of schools have already gone under. The powerful general-aviation lobby, which includes flight schools, private planes and air charters, has long enjoyed a cozy relationship with the FAA. But after September 11, flight schools feared the Feds would crack down with onerous new restrictions. A December report to Congress from Transportation Secretary Norman Mineta offered a number of ideas for improving security. Among them: requiring pilots to file detailed flight plans, and restricting airspace over 30 large metro areas.

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Avgas – Aff – Politics – A-to Bush Bad – PAC turn

( ) Our PAC turn a) Plan unpopular in Congress – they perceive it will jack their PAC Money. Business & Commercial Aviation ‘97 (September, 1997 – lexis) Dr. Shauck is concerned about air pollution from avgas. He says, ''100LL is responsible for 100 percent of the emissions containing lead in the U.S. today.'' In addition, he warns of the environmental impact of Jet-A and tirelessly promotes the use of clean-burning fuels. He is sounding the alarm about U.S. over-dependence on foreign oil. ''We import 53 percent of our petroleum. In the aviation market, consumption of aviation gasoline is 30-million gallons per year. It's an energy security problem,'' he asserts. ''We have the technology, the performance and the supply of ethanol all in place, but the oil companies are too powerful. Congressmembers (men) feel they can't support alternative fuels because they are afraid of losing their PAC money,'' Dr. Shauk said. *** this ev was gender-edited *****

b) PAC money heavily influences Congress The Hill ‘02

(April 3rd – lexis)

Many lobbyists whose shops emphasize grassroots campaigns are confident they could be even more effective after the campaign finance reform law takes effect. While the agendas of powerful lobbying groups are never exactly ignored, their importance could rise under the new system as the political parties, restricted from raising soft money, look to outside groups to back their candidates. Sharon Wolff, the National Federation of Independent Business's (NFIB) director of campaign services and political action committee (PAC), said the political efforts of the group in the 2000 election cycle could be replicated in this fall's midterms. "For the most part - the core of our program is communications with our members and grassroots mobilization," Wolff said. "That's our main source of where we get our money from. ... PACs in general continue to have a strong voice in the process because we're still able to communicate with members and able to contribute to candidates who support that." The 600,000-member NFIB raised $8 million in the 2000 election cycle, doling out $2 million of that to about 20 House and Senate races. This fall the group plans a greater emphasis on helping Republicans win back the Senate. "In general, our focus will be on getting back a pro-small business Senate," Wolff said. The NFIB's endorsement list thus far has 10 candidates, including eight running for Senate. While the list contains mostly high-profile races, such as Norm Coleman's (R) bid to oust Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-Minn.), Wolff said the group reviews voting records, takes input from other legislators and has candidates fill out a questionnaire on their top priorities. Larry Noble, executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics (CRP), said those organizations with hard money PACs - and their agendas - become more important as hard money becomes more critical. "The ones who are giving the money are going to have more leverage with their agenda items, but then again you don't want to underestimate the power they have had," Noble said.

124

Avgas – Aff – Politics – Plan = Unpopular w/ Inhofe ( ) Plan unpopular – Senator Inhoffe opposes. Flight International ‘7

(Jan 16th – lexis)

Corrosion concerns The biggest concern is ethanol's uncertain effect on fuel systems. Corrosion is one reason there was so much opposition to a Congressional proposal last year to require petroleum fuels in the USA to have a 10% mix of renewable fuel by 2010. The "Ten by Ten Act" was a proposed amendment to the Clean Air Act that ignited fierce opposition in 2006 across general aviation in the USA. Opponents hoped aviation could be exempted, but then Senator James Inhofe, an Oklahoma Republican and pilot, announced in July he was killing the bill in his committee. "It looks like there are a lot of aircraft here," said Inhofe, owner of a Grumman Tiger and a Van's RV-7, at last year's AirVenture show in Oshkosh, "but I can take you to one parking lot in the Pentagon that has twice as many cars. So there aren't enough aircraft to make that a problem with air quality." Inhofe's move came after Experimental Aircraft Association (EAA) president Tom Poberezny pointed out in a letter to Congress that the FAA prohibits STC holders from using ethanol blends. "Despite several attempts by EAA and others, ethanol-blended gasoline, of all grades, has not been able to meet the FAA flight safety fuel certification standards," he wrote. "EAA, Cessna and FAA studies have proven that ethanol-blended fuels are harmful to recreational and general aviation aircraft and their fuel system components (rubber lines, fuel pumps, rubber seals and fuel tanks). Vapour lock is also a critical flight safety issue caused by the use of ethanol-blended fuel in aircraft engines." Republican Congressman Gil Gutknecht of Minnesota, author of the Ten by Ten Act, lost his seat in the November 2006 elections, but not before Congress heard the concerns, says his spokesman Jon Yarian. "This kind of change and this sort of legislation is going to ruffle feathers," he says. "There is going to be some disruption, but obviously we feel that the experts and scientists in the industry can mitigate that risk and make this workable for everybody, including the aviation industry."Ian Walsh, vice-president and general manager of Textron's Lycoming piston-engine business, says general aviation companies need to adapt to alternative fuels. "Not in the short term, but more in the long term," he says. "Domestically, I think it's too early. Overseas I think it's going to be a real issue."Micheal Wagner has tested 5% ethanol blends in Rotax engines as head of the Austrian manufacturer's aircraft centre, and plans to test higher ethanol-content mixes. "In the European community there is a three-year mandate to increase alcohol in fuels, and of course we have to follow that," he says, adding that ethanol is easy to work with and is good to the engine. "Combustion is stable. It burns nicely. It's clean. Performance is good. If you tune the fuel/air mixture right you will not easily kill an engine with it. For the engine, it's much better than avgas."Reducing emissionsThe presence of oxygen in the blended fuel is easily dealt with, Wagner says. "We have to adjust the air/fuel ratio on the carburettor setting, and the injector setting has to be checked. The detonator should be no problem." The only trouble with the fuel, he says, is its corrosive effect on some plastic and rubber components between the fuel tank and engine. "Everything that's in contact with the fuel - injectors, fuel pump, O-rings, sealants, gaskets - has to be resistant." The debate baffles Steve Thompson who, as a pilot for the Vanguard Squadron, uses 100% ethanol in his aerobatic aircraft's Lycoming IO-320 engine. "We've been operating since 1993 on 100% ethanol," he says, adding: "Just 10% ethanol - virtually any aircraft engine will burn that. It's more hype than anything that's making all the noise." The downside, he says, "is you've got to convert your fuel injector and get it to flow more. Then there's the matter of getting the fuel itself." The squadron is sponsored by the South Dakota Corn Council, which supplies locally produced ethanol. The council, Shauck and other supporters are quick to point to the reduced emissions of ethanol, which would help meet looming greenhouse gas deadlines around the world. Shauck concedes there are slight increases in emissions of nitrogen oxides. "But there's a decrease in carbon monoxide, a decrease in volatile organic compounds, and a very important thing is that the use of ethanol sequesters CO2. You get about the same amount of CO2 coming out but the CO2 that is sequestered by the growing of biomass to create the fuel offsets that."There are other drawbacks to ethanol, points out John Heimlich, vice-president and chief economist of the Air Transport Association, the trade body for US airlines. "It freezes in pipelines. It's one thing to have fuel it's another to get it into the aircraft."

125

Avgas – Aff – FAA – President gets credit/blame for FAA Action

( ) The President gets credit and blame for FAA action.

Strauss ’84

(Peter L. Strauss -- Professor of Law, Columbia Law School. – Columbia Law Review – April)

With so large a subject and so rich a history, I do not pretend to have done more than screatch the surface of possibilities. Nonetheless, the inquiry -- and the reunderstanding it connotes -- seems important. The formalistic view of the place of agencies creates assumptions and beliefs that would change if all agencies were viewed as essentially under the control of all three named bodies. For example, the political differences between the Federal Aviation Administration (in the Department of Transportation) and the Civil Aeronautics Board (an independent commission) seem to derive in part from the CAB's belief that Congress may consider the CAB entitled to be more independent of presidential direction than the FAA, which operates in a framework of expectation that it is bound by his (or her) directives. Even if the President believes he has directory authority over the CAB, exercising that authority nonetheless will require the playing of political chips in his dealings with Congress; the stakes in that game, which include the possibility of added congressional controls over the executive departments, may be too high to [*669] justify the play. Reunderstanding the issues in checks-and-balances terms -- eliminating the illusion that agency structure depended on placement rather than relationship -- could alter the expectations which underlie this political by-play, and in that way work for continuation of the balance between President and Congress that lies at the heart of the constitutional scheme.

*Edited for gendered language*

126

Avgas – Aff – Politics/ElectionsDisad – No Link, Media will ignore plan

( ) Media will not latch onto the plan – general aviation is not deemed newsworthy.

Flight Times ’04

(October 26th -- http://www.jacksjoint.com/flighttimes-10-26-04.htm)

This may not have made the news if it hadn't happened so close to a "newsworthy" location. Let's face it, general aviation doesn't make the news. Maybe it's because the general public only pays attention to the "News about me".

127

Avgas – Aff – A-to Aircraft Performance Disads

( ) Ethanol boosts performance – it’s a better option than avgas. EERC 2000

(Commercialization of Aviation-Grade E85 (AGE85) -- University of North Dakota Energy & Environmental Research Center -- Grand Forks, North Dakota – March 21, 2000 -http://www.fuelandfiber.com/Archive/Fuel/Research/AGE85/age85.html)

Why ethanol? Excellent antidetonation properties – ethanol doesn’t "knock," even at high compression ratio. Ethanol burns faster and at higher thermal efficiency than 100LL or gasoline, putting more energy into motion and less into heat. Evidence for higher thermal efficiency – exhaust gas temperatures for AGE85 and 100LL are about equal, but cylinder head temperatures are much lower with AGE85. The standard motor octane test method (ASTM 2700) doesn’t work for high ethanol-content fuels, because cylinder head temperature cannot be maintained at specified level. Ethanol burns cleaner than 100LL, resulting in longer TBO. Ethanol is currently cheaper than 100LL, which is selling at from $1.60 to $2.80 per gallon.

( ) Avgas provides aircraft with more horsepower. Compton ‘8

(Timothy – MS, Baylor Institute for Air Sciences, Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of Baylor University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of International Master of Environmental ScienceApproved by the Committee, Maxwell E. Shauck, Jr., Ph.D., Chairperson -- Flight Performance Testing of Ethanol/100LL Fuel Blends During Cruise Flight – May -https://beardocs.baylor.edu/bitstream/2104/5150/1/Timothy_Compton_masters.pdf)

Ethanol has an increased detonation resistance compared to 100LL avgas. Ethanol’s higher latent heat of vaporization is responsible for an increase in power. A power plant similar to the one used in this work was tested on an FAA approved test stand, during certification testing. Comparison runs were made on 100LL avgas and ethanol. The maximum horsepower achieved by the engine when fueled by 100LL avgas was approximately 125 horsepower. A 20% increase in horsepower (25 h.p.) was gained when the fuel was changed to ethanol.22

128

Avgas – Aff – A-to Aircraft Performance Disads cont’ ( ) Ethanol performs better than avgas – better efficiency and power. Shauck 2000

(et al, Max Shauck is the head of the Baylor Institute for Aviation Sciences,. “The Present and Future Potential of Biomass Fuels in Aviation”. Paper presented at the First World Biomass Conference, Seville, Spain -- http://www3.baylor.edu/bias/publications/bomassfuels.pdf)

129

A-to “Plan hurts General Aviation Economy – Engine Modification” ( ) No link – GA operators are not legally required to switch away from avgas. Our argument is that they would choose to do so. If some folks could not immediately afford an engine upgrade, they’d wait for the market to drive down the cost of replacements.

( ) Modification expenses are outweighed by fuel and engine costs. Laudner ‘1

(Kelly, M.S. -- FROM PROMISE TO PURPOSE: OPPORTUNITIES AND CONSTRAINTS FOR ETHANOL-BASED TRANSPORTATION FUELS -- Submitted to Michigan State University, Department of Resource Development -http://www.michigan.gov/documents/CIS_EO_Ethanol_Thesis_87917_7.pdf)

As in automobiles, a

blend of 85% ethanol fuel can only be used in airplanes that are modified to run on this fuel by installing alcohol compatible components and other minor modifications. In 1997, it was estimated that modifications for a Cessna aircraft would be approximately $3,000.91 Costs are offset by estimated extended engine life and savings on fuel, which could add up to over $6,000 per year.92 AGE-85 has been shown to have many advantages over the current aviation fuel, Avgas.93 First, it is much cheaper, selling for about $1.40 per gallon when Avgas was selling at between $2.50-$3.00 per gallon. AGE-85 also provides more power then Avgas because of ethanol’s higher octane rating and burns cleaner reducing emissions.

( ) The Aff saves GA – avoids supply disruptions and engine overhauls. EERC 2000

(Commercialization of Aviation-Grade E85 (AGE85) -- University of North Dakota Energy & Environmental Research Center -- Grand Forks, North Dakota – March 21, 2000 -http://www.fuelandfiber.com/Archive/Fuel/Research/AGE85/age85.html)

Only three countries still produce TEL, and U.S. is not one of them. In an oil shortage, 100LL would likely be first fuel with supply problems. Some aircraft require even higher-octane fuel, and use of 100LL results in performance derating and/or shorter TBO (time between overhauls). Engine overhaul is big flying expense, ranging from about $10,000 to $30,000. Lead build-up in cylinders derates performance and shortens TBO, and toxic ethylene dibromide is often added to fuel to act as a lead scavenger. Current general aviation market represents about 400 million gallons per year.

130

Avgas – Aff – A-to the Oil Disad ( ) No internal link – oil markets are not all effected by the plan. Business & Technology ’02 (v.57 pages 36-8 May 2002 – obtained via Wilson select database)

In the USA, where the price difference between avgas and avtur is not so wide, new avgas types are being worked on by AirBP and ExxonMobile. Sweden's Hjemco Oil produces an unleaded avgas which is approved for Textron Lycoming engines up to 150kW (200hp) without performance loss. But it has been slow to catch on because knowledge about fuels is not so good among operators and maintenance organisations, so they stick to what they know. Oil companies will only produce fuels that are profitable.

Some tests are being carried out on ethanol as a fuel for GA, but again the problem of distribution arises. The GA (General Aviation) industry just doesn't have the clout to make the oil companies take much notice. The way forward is to use a fuel that's already on airfields.

( ) No Link -- Avgas comprises a small percentage of overall US fossil fuel consumption. Compton ‘8

(Timothy – MS, Baylor Institute for Air Sciences, Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of Baylor University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of International Master of Environmental ScienceApproved by the Committee, Maxwell E. Shauck, Jr., Ph.D., Chairperson -- Flight Performance Testing of Ethanol/100LL Fuel Blends During Cruise Flight – May -https://beardocs.baylor.edu/bitstream/2104/5150/1/Timothy_Compton_masters.pdf)

Aviation fuel, specifically aviation gasoline, represents only a fraction of all transportation fuel consumed. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) released the latest fuel consumption statistics in April of 2007. The publication, National Transportation Statistics (NTS) 5, shows aviation gasoline accounting for only a very small part of the larger fuel consumption picture. In fact, aviation gasoline and jet fuel combine for only 7.3% of all transportation fuel consumed. 100LL, on its own accord, makes up only 0.1 % of all transportation fuel consumed.

( ) Big oil is not opposed to the introduction of green alternatives to avgas EPM ‘2

(Ethanol Producers Magazine – June -http://www.ethanolproducer.com/article.jsp?article_id=1647&q=&page=all)

“Unfortunately, the industry uses (tetra-ethyl) lead,” said Phillips 66 executive J. Mark Wagner, who spoke at the conference. “We would like something to replace it, and the EPA would too. Believe me, we would all like to see lead go away, but that’s not going to happen overnight.” Wagner, who said Phillips 66 is not going to “naysay” ethanol-based aviation fuel, cautioned the developers of AGE85 to be cognisant of the extensive challenges that lie ahead in terms of infrastructure, distribution, and supply. Phillips 66, which controls about one-third of the U.S. avgas market, ships its product nationwide by truck, rail, barge and pipeline. At any given time, Phillips 66 has enough 100 LL in storage to serve its distributers for up to six months, Wagner said.

131

Avgas – Aff – A-to the Oil Disad cont’ ( ) Your oil link does not apply in this context: a)

Oil companies hate Avgas – separate transportation and only 1 producer left. EPI ’04 (December 27th -- EPI Inc. specializes in the design and development of piston engines and transmission systems. This site is their homepage. http://www.epi-eng.com/ET-EndOf100LL.htm)

Here are a few of the factors which are contributing to the prospect of the demise of 100LL, EPA reprieve notwithstanding: (1) There is now only one factory in the world which produces TEL; (2) Of the several hundred refineries in operation, there is only a very small number which produce 100LL; (3) A production run of 100LL requires a subsequent purge of the refinery (very costly) before resuming production of unleaded motor fuel; (4) The leaded avgas requires completely separate transportation and storage facilities; (5) The volume of avgas production represents an extremely small portion of the gasoline marketplace. Those, and other factors will, in all probability, cause significant price increases for 100LL. That will result in declining usage, leading to further reductions in capacity, leading to yet-higher prices. The likely result is that, eventually, oil companies will no longer view avgas as a viable product.

b)

Oil companies are no longer even trying to produce the replacements for Avgas. Merritt 2000

(Paul – Dr. Paul Merritt received his PhD in Mechanical Engineering from the University of New Mexico. Retired from Boeing-SVS where he was a Senior Technical Fellow. SPIE Fellow -- AvWeb – November 29th -- http://www.avweb.com/news/maint/182833-1.html)

Before I make suggestions about possible solutions, let me explain why there was not a solution to the problem when the transportation industry was first told to "get the lead out." At this time, the aviation manufacturers had complete confidence that the petroleum industry would pull off a miracle and come up with a 100-octane fuel that didn't use lead. Thus, the industry kept making planes that must have 100-octane fuel and it continues to do so today. Actually, the petroleum companies worked very hard to try and pull off that "miracle." I have heard that over 40,000 different compounds were experimented with in the attempt to replace lead. Some of those compounds proved successful in increasing the octane but at the same time caused other problems, such as causing corrosion or proving to be more toxic than lead. Still, this effort continued for a couple of decades. Eventually, the demand for aviation gasoline was mostly supplanted by the demand for jet fuel, and the oil companies gave up on a replacement for 100LL. The engine and airframe manufacturers knew the oil companies were no longer attempting to replace the lead a few years back, but most of us plane owners and operators did not. These manufactures did not publicize this fact. I can understand the silence. I doubt I'd tell anyone I made a product that needed a fuel that was going the way of the dinosaurs.

132

Avgas – Aff – A-to the Oil Disad cont’ c) We do not disrupt oil companies at all – Ethanol producers will voluntary absorb their compliance costs, and make offsetting contracts with oil firms. Nelson ’99

(Jessica Nelson is a researcher with the Institute for Local Self-Reliance. High on Ethanol -- Fall http://www.mncorn.org/servlet/mcga/resource/foodenergy.iml?area_id=14&article_id=794&display =Y&thispage=resource/foodenergy.iml)

In the process of developing and certifying AGE85, researchers decided not to patent the fuel. They did this to avoid delays, but also, as Helder says, to "make this fuel as available as possible to anybody who wants it." Ted Aulich believes that their primary obligation is to ethanol producers and farmers, and hopes that the producers will "take the reins" and assume the position of distributing the fuel and reaping the profits from it. Making & Distributing AGE85 Ideally, according to Aulich, ethanol producers will establish contracts with oil companies to supply the petroleum additive and will blend AGE85 on-site at their plants. As it is a splash-blending operation, no extensive facility modifications will be necessary. This will avoid the expense of transporting the ethanol to a separate facility, and will solve another complicated problem: obtaining pure ethanol. The U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms regulations require that fuel ethanol be denatured before it is removed from a plant in order to ensure that the alcohol can't be consumed as a beverage. The denaturant is commonly gasoline, which contains components that AGE85 researchers say would weaken their fuel. Using pure ethanol is therefore crucial. If blending is done in the ethanol plant, they can use pure ethanol and certify pentane isomerate (the 12 percent petroleum additive) as the denaturant, a move for which researchers have already received provisional certification.

133

Avgas – Aff – Link Defense versus Oil/Oil-Related Bus Con &Politics Args

( ) The only Avgas producer left is British – which is not even part of OPEC

AOPA ’04

(Aircraft Owners and Pilot Association -- Sept 30th -http: //www.aopa.org/whatsnew/newsitems/2004/040930avgas.html)

"All the TEL in the world is produced only in the United Kingdom," said Luis Gutierrez, AOPA director of regulatory and certification policy. "All the TEL used within the United States to refine avgas is imported."

134

Avgas – Aff – A-to Backstopping ( ) No backstopping -- Post-the-plan, the avgas developers would simply funnel their product to the auto sector. Business & Commercial Aviation, December, 2002 However, the

people who actually manufacture avgas told us that the production of 100LL is a profitable venture, and there are no immediate plans to terminate or replace the product. In addition, they said the availability of TEL and the production of alkalytes -- both avgas essentials -- are not a problem.

What some people forget is that avgas is made from the same straight-run distillate as auto gas. If avgas consumption falls, the raw product can easily be converted into auto fuel before the TEL is added. However, once the TEL is in the fuel it is forever avgas. (Note: TEL is lead)

135

Avgas – Aff – A-to Business Confidence Disad ( ) transitioning from Avgas to Ethanol helps the aviation sector Zanin & Shauck ’97

(Grazia Zanin/Max Shauck -- Baylor Institute of Air Science (B.I.A.S.) @ Baylor University -- Ethanol as an Aviation Fuel -http://www.eere.energy.gov/power/tech_access/docs/51_ethanol_as_aviation_fuel.cfm)

Oxygenated alcohol fuels such as ethanol meet the emission reduction standards set by the CAAA. Ethanol

is cleaner and cooler in use than avgas, prolongs engine life, delivers more power, and is likely to present a much cheaper option as supplies become more readily available. Ethanol has an oxidizing effect on aluminum, so corrosion inhibitors are added to the fuel.

( ) No infrastructure costs – ethanol can be used in current wave of airplane engines Zanin & Shauck ’97

(Grazia Zanin/Max Shauck -- Baylor Institute of Air Science (B.I.A.S.) @ Baylor University -- Ethanol as an Aviation Fuel -http://www.eere.energy.gov/power/tech_access/docs/51_ethanol_as_aviation_fuel.cfm)

Work at the RAFDC involves certification of engines and airframes for ethanol use. To date, the Center has certified two series of Lycoming engines (one fuel injected and one carburetted) and both the engine and airframe of a Cessna 152 - the world's most commonly used trainer. The Center has logged more than 4,000 flight hours in nine ethanol-powered aircraft.

( ) Despite drawbacks in range, ethanol use is -- on balance -- the best option Zanin & Shauck ’97

(Grazia Zanin/Max Shauck -- Baylor Institute of Air Science (B.I.A.S.) @ Baylor University -- Ethanol as an Aviation Fuel -http://www.eere.energy.gov/power/tech_access/docs/51_ethanol_as_aviation_fuel.cfm)

A minor drawback of the use of ethanol fuel is the slightly reduced range. A liter of ethanol produces about twothirds the heat of a liter of avgas. However, the effect of range loss is reduced by the higher thermodynamic efficiency of ethanol. A Cessna 152 fitted with a Lycoming 235N2C engine uses about 13.8 liters/100 km on avgas and 15.7 liters/100 km on ethanol.

The high octane level of ethanol allows the use of higher compression ratio engines that deliver more power for the same throttle setting. The lower Reid vapor pressure of ethanol helps to prevent vapor locking. Ethanol is cooler and cleaner in use than avgas and is more resistant to detonation, resulting in fewer vibrations and longer engine life.

136

Avgas – Aff – A-to Business Confidence Disad cont’ ( ) Ethanol cheaper than Avgas – our studies assume negative variables Zanin & Shauck ’97

(Grazia Zanin/Max Shauck -- Baylor Institute of Air Science (B.I.A.S.) @ Baylor University -- Ethanol as an Aviation Fuel -http://www.eere.energy.gov/power/tech_access/docs/51_ethanol_as_aviation_fuel.cfm)

Ethanol has a tax advantage. Avgas is taxed at $0.048/liter while ethanol receives a tax advantage of $0.14/liter. Avgas costs $0.53/liter on average while ethanol costs $0.34 to 0.37/liter. The US ethanol industry provides 55,000 jobs and $15.6 billion/year in net farm income. Avgas is slightly cheaper on a per-kilometer basis than ethanol, but the lower maintenance costs associated with the use of ethanol ultimately make it a cheaper fuel option for pilots. Supporters of ethanol point to the prospects of increased avgas costs due to the need for an additive that provides an adequate octane level. They predict that ethanol production costs will drop as the base of sustainable biomass feedstocks is expanded and researchers discover new ways to optimize its production.

( ) Adjustment is smooth – ethanol can replace AvGas in every US aircraft. Nelson ’99

(Jessica Nelson is a researcher with the Institute for Local Self-Reliance. High on Ethanol -- Fall http://www.mncorn.org/servlet/mcga/resource/foodenergy.iml?area_id=14&article_id=794&display =Y&thispage=resource/foodenergy.iml)

AGE85 & Avgas: Building a Bridge With slight modifications, AGE85

has the potential to replace avgas in every existing general aviation fleet engine, including both older carburetor engines and more modern fuel-injected engines. Conversion requirements vary according to type of aircraft, but are not extensive or costly. Jim Behnken, member of the research team and owner of Great Planes Fuel Development, estimates that 30-40 percent of engines will require only a readjustment of the fuel delivery system (a labor cost of $100-150), and others, such as the certified Cessna 180 series, an additional part (a combined part and labor cost of around $200).

( ) Ethanol transition would save the industry money – it is cheaper than AvGas Nelson ’99

(Jessica Nelson is a researcher with the Institute for Local Self-Reliance. High on Ethanol -- Fall http://www.mncorn.org/servlet/mcga/resource/foodenergy.iml?area_id=14&article_id=794&display =Y&thispage=resource/foodenergy.iml)

In addition to the environmental and human health benefits of AGE85, the cost of the fuel will likely be lower than that of avgas. The cost of avgas is $2 per gallon, a price that will keep rising as lead becomes more difficult to obtain. With ethanol being sold at a wholesale price of around $.95 per gallon and pentane isomerate at a price comparable to unleaded gasoline ($.55 per gallon), Mark Luitjens, marketing manager for Heartland Grain Fuels (the ethanol producer currently supplying AGE85 researchers with ethanol), estimates that AGE85's

price will be around $1.60 per gallon. His projection does not include federal tax incentives currently available for automobile fuels. Jim Behnken agrees that, even without the tax credit, AGE85 will be lower in cost than avgas. With the $.54 per gallon tax credit (which Behnken and the Renewable Fuels Association say will be applicable to aviation fuel), AGE85

could potentially be marketed at closer to $1.10 per gallon, allowing it to move more swiftly into the aviation fuel market.

137

Avgas – Aff – Bus Con -- A-to “Engine Manufacturers would backlash” ( ) Engine manufacturers WANT to phase-out avgas, but regulatory barriers currently preclude the transition. Airline Business ’03

(July 29, 2003 – obtained via infotrac)

While engine manufacturers have constantly striven for improved performance and lower emissions, one component of propulsion systems has shown a remarkable resistance to change since jets first flew. Aviation fuels have remained essentially the same for half a century, but producers are now looking to incorporate performance boosters and replace leaded avgas. But first there are enormous regulatory hurdles to overcome. The most common types of jet fuel standards, Jet A and A-1, were drawn up 50 years ago, and are similar except for the lower freeze point of -47[degrees]C (-53[degrees]F) of the internationally available A-1 versus -40[degrees]C for the US standard Jet A. Freeze point is defined as the highest temperature at which solid particles can exist in the fuel, and is critical for cold weather and high-altitude performance. In the same period, lower

lead content varieties have been introduced to piston engine avgas, but developments are not as advanced as in automotive fuels.

( ) Manufacturers no longer want to make Avgas engines – it jacks their international markets. Travis ‘97

(Gregory Travis maintains a web-page devoted to reciprocating engines of all types -- The piston element of the NASA GAP program – Aviation Consumer – March -- http://www.primemover.org/Engines/GArticles/article2.html)

Why diesel? The main reason is fuel. While aviation gasoline (AvGas) isn't going anywhere soon, it's clear the fuel's long-term viability is in serious question. Europeans are used to paying several times the amount we enjoy in the United States for fuel and in other parts of the world it's being eliminated completely. For companies such as Piper and Cessna, which hope to be able to derive a significant portion of their revenues overseas, having to equip their new planes with engines for which fuel is or soon will be unavailable isn't a viable option.

138

Avgas – A-to Econ disad that says “Plan kills US General Aviation Sector”

( ) By helping spur GA in China, the plan saves the US GA sector. AIRLINE BUSINESS REPORT ’04

(April 12, 2004)

The general aviation industry in the United States would benefit from the Chinese strategy on several fronts. About 75 percent of the general aviation airplanes sold throughout the world are made in the United States, and a rapid expansion in China would spur the aircraft-manufacturing sector. Moreover, an increase in airplane production would put downward pressure on airplane prices.

139

Avgas – Aff – A-to the Spending/Economy Disad

( ) Plan decreases federal crop subsidies and boost rural employment. Zanin ‘7

(Grazia Zanin is the Director of Research at the Baylor Institute for Air Science. She holds degrees in Earth Sciences and Environmental Sciences. She has been working in the areas research and development of renewable aviation fuels for the last 20 years. She was a pilot on the first transatlantic flight on ethanol fuel. -I.M.E.S., The Baylor Institute of Air Science, Baylor University -- The Green Airport Concept and the International Flight Academy on Biofuels – December -https://beardocs.baylor.edu/bitstream/2104/5133/1/Grazia_Zanin_Masters.pdf)

Beside its economic advantage and superior performance, the adoption of ethanol as an aviation fuel will have many positive impacts in creating rural employment, increasing use of agricultural crops or woody biomass crops, reducing dependence on imported, non-renewable petroleum products, reducing emissions from internal combustion engines, and

reducing federal crop subsidies.

140

Avgas – Aff –A-to Ethanol Bad Disad (b/c it Increases Fossil Fuel Consumption)

( ) No unique link Ethanol glut now – meaning that we do not cause more ethanol production – we simply consume ethanol that’s already produced. That’s our Alvarez ev

( ) There’s a domestic ethanol glut now – meaning we only use fuel that’s already produced. RFN ‘5 (RENEWABLE FUEL NEWS February 14, 2005 – lexis) The average national rack price of ethanol fell another 3 c/gal last week, to $1.57/gal, while market sources said spot prices for rail car sized quantities lost about 5 c/gal to be pegged around $1.50-$1.60/gal range on a delivered basis. Most ethanol players attended the Renewable Fuels Association's Ethanol Conference in Scottsdale, Ariz. Last week. While the mood at the conference was upbeat when looking out over the long term, nearly all of the short term predictions called for further price decreases owing to the amount of new capacity coming on line with no where to go.

( ) Cellulosic Ethanol inevitable – makes your disad inevitable because it replace far more consumption than the plan Business Week

‘5

(2-21-2005 – Lexis)

A new white-knight fuel could soon be coming to the rescue of motorists fed up with roller-coaster gasoline prices. It should also get a warm welcome from environmentalists. This wonder fuel is ethanol -- with a twist. Unlike the ethanol that has been blended with gasoline for 20 years, the new flavor of ethanol isn't made from corn or other grains. Instead, it's distilled from the plant waste left in fields after farmers harvest their corn, wheat, or barley for food or animal feed. By trucking these plant stalks to the biorefineries that may soon sprout in the Midwest and in Canada, farmers could rake in an extra 15% in sales. This new breed of ethanol promises a bigger gain. It would reduce significantly both the U.S. dependence on imported oil and the enormous output of greenhouse gases spewing from the 220 million vehicles on U.S. roads. When burned, cellulosic ethanol -- a name used to distinguish it from grain ethanol -- scores a modest reduction in tailpipe emissions, compared to gasoline. Factor in the CO2 that's sopped up by biomass crops grown for fuel, and the bottom-line decrease can be 90% or more.

( ) Cellulosic ethanol sales have already started – disproving your uniqueness and link Greenwire ‘5

(February 15, 2005—lexis)

Already, companies have started commercial sales of cellulosic ethanol. "This will be a major industry with lots of significant players," said Brian Foody, president of Iogen, which is seeking to build a large-scale refinery. "We will make a big difference by 2020" ( BusinessWeek , Feb. 21 issue).

141

Avgas – Aff –A-to Ethanol Bad Disad (b/c it Increases Fossil Fuel Consumption) cont’ ( ) Cornell study wrong – Pimentel data is flawed REAP ’01

(Renewable Energy Action Project -- Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Fact Check --

“Ethanol is Not a Renewable Fuel …” Credible and independent studies from the Department of Energy’s Argonne National Laboratory, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and Michigan State University confirm that ethanol is a renewable resource with a net energy benefit in comparison to gasoline ranging from 27-58%. The Cornell University study that challenges the renewable nature of ethanol assigns no energy value to ethanol co-products and uses outdated data to estimate the energy costs of inputs such as fertilizers and irrigation. (note: David Pimentel is an ag economist from Cornell that definitely wrote the sat they’re citing, b/c no else thinks it)

142

Avgas – Aff – A-to “Plan causes increase in Corn-Based Ethanol” ( ) Use of ethanol for aviation will expand cellulosic ethanol markets Zanin & Shauck ’97

(Grazia Zanin/Max Shauck -- Baylor Institute of Air Science (B.I.A.S.) @ Baylor University -- Ethanol as an Aviation Fuel -http://www.eere.energy.gov/power/tech_access/docs/51_ethanol_as_aviation_fuel.cfm)

America's farmers currently produce 20 million m3 of corn per year, about 6% of the total crop, for use in ethanol production. Increased use of ethanol in aviation will also help to expand markets for agricultural producers who cultivate cellulosic energy crops, an alternative category of biomass from which the fuel can also be made.

143

Avgas Aff – Distinction between General Aviation and Commercial Airlines ( ) General aviation and Commercial aviation are distinct – commercial aviation is crucial to the economy. FAA ’03

(Federal Aviation Administration – Aviation Activity in the National Airspace System -http://www.faa.gov/ats/asc/publications/03_ACE/CH_1.pdf)

1.2 Non-Commercial Aviation Activity and Commercial Space Transportation The non-commercial aviation sector consists of general aviation and military operations. Although these sectors do not receive as much notice as the commercial sector does,

general aviation is vitally important to many sectors of the economy and military operations are a key element of national security policy. Commercial space transportation, which refers to the launch of an object into space by a nongovernmental entity, is an important component of the economy. 1.2.1 General Aviation Activity

General aviation includes all segments of civil aviation except commercial air carriers. It is remarkably diverse in its activities, its participants, and the equipment they use. General aviation functions range from the training of student pilots to the operation of mainline jets for private individuals or companies. Its uses include sightseeing, agricultural application, the provision of emergency medical services, personal and corporate business travel, cargo movement, and flying for pleasure. The diverse general aviation fleets ranges from gliders and home-built experimental aircraft, to trainers and a variety single-engine piston aircraft, and to multi-engine piston aircraft and an enormous range helicopters, turbo props, and jets.

Most

of the thousands of U.S. airports handle only general aviation traffic. Many of these are small, rural airports without an airport traffic control tower. Flights to and from these airports typically have little or no contact with the FAA’s air traffic control system and don’t contribute to airport or airspace congestion. Nonetheless, in FY 2002, almost 30 million general aviation operations took place at airports with airport traffic control towers, over 10 percent of total aircraft operations at those airports. General

aviation also has a significant presence at the busiest commercial service airports. General aviation traffic accounted for 15.5 percent of total aircraft operations at the 35 Operational Evolution Plan (OEP) airports in FY 2002. Figure 1-5 shows that the percentage of general aviation operations at these airports varied from just 1.1 percent at Seattle-Tacoma to 25.6 percent at Honolulu.

( ) We don’t effect commercial airlines – there’s a distinction between avgas and jet fuel. Zanin ‘7

(Grazia Zanin is the Director of Research at the Baylor Institute for Air Science. She holds degrees in Earth Sciences and Environmental Sciences. She has been working in the areas research and development of renewable aviation fuels for the last 20 years. She was a pilot on the first transatlantic flight on ethanol fuel. -I.M.E.S., The Baylor Institute of Air Science, Baylor University -- The Green Airport Concept and the International Flight Academy on Biofuels – December -https://beardocs.baylor.edu/bitstream/2104/5133/1/Grazia_Zanin_Masters.pdf)

Although aviation’s environmental impact is not limited to emissions from aircraft, these emissions represent the biggest challenge. There are two major fuels used in today’s aircraft: the commonly called “jet fuel” used in commercial turbine engines (called Jet A-1, Jet A, and Jet B) and in military jets (called JP-4, JP-5 and JP-8), and the leaded aviation fuel (Avgas) used in piston engine aviation fleets. These fuels each have different impacts. The most significant and ubiquitous environmental impact caused by the use of jet fuels is due to the large quantity of fuel consumed and the altitudes at which commercial airliners and military aircraft operate. In regards to Avgas, while the quantity of fuel consumed is miniscule in comparison to jet fuel, the major problem is that it is the only leaded fuel still in use in the USA. High compression piston engines require a high octane fuel and lead is used to boost octane in Avgas (Chevron , 2000)

144

Avgas Aff – Definition of General Aviation

( ) here’s the definition of General Aviation: US Dept of Transportation ’92

(as footnoted in -- University of San Francisco Law Review – Spring ‘95)

General aviation (GA) is used to describe "all civil (i.e., non-military) aviation operations other than scheduled air services and non-scheduled air transport operations for remuneration or hire." Dep't of Transp., Airman's Information Manual, at AIM-341 (Aviation Supplies & Academics ed., Oct. 15, 1992 ed.) (definition of GA in Pilot/Controller glossary). This category generally includes private planes, corporate flying, agricultural applications, small charter operations, traffic spotting, aerial advertising and a variety of other uses.

145

Avgas – Aff – Avgas consumption increasing ( ) Avgas consumption is on the rise Compton ‘8

(Timothy – MS, Baylor Institute for Air Sciences, Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of Baylor University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of International Master of Environmental ScienceApproved by the Committee, Maxwell E. Shauck, Jr., Ph.D., Chairperson -- Flight Performance Testing of Ethanol/100LL Fuel Blends During Cruise Flight – May -https://beardocs.baylor.edu/bitstream/2104/5150/1/Timothy_Compton_masters.pdf)

Estimates provided by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) cite that 262.2 million gallons of 100LL avgas were consumed in 2006; a 2.6% increase in consumption from 2005. Furthermore, forecasts estimate the consumption will increase to 286 million gallons in 2010 and 301 million gallons by 2015.2 These numbers would result in a 9.2% and 13% increase, respectively, from today’s usage. Figure 1 shows historic and forecast aviation aircraft fuel consumption values.

146

Avgas – Aff – Avgas Consumption Significant, despite Jet Fuel Distinction

( ) Despite other jet fuels, Avgas still comprises a substantial segment of market.

Business & Commercial Aviation, December, 2002

It's been decades since business aviation began its eager embrace of the turbine engine, and now today's

fleet is largely

powered by Jet-A, a plentiful and largely uncontroversial fuel also used by airline and military aircraft the world over. However, piston-powered aircraft fueled with aviation-grade gasoline still represent a significant portion of the business aviation fleet. Of the aircraft operated by NBAA membership companies alone, 1,649 -- 18 percent of the total -- are piston singles and twins worth an estimated $ 250 million. In the United States there are in excess of 25,000 twin piston aircraft, a third of which are devoted to business, whose total value easily exceeds $ 5 billion.

147

Avgas – Aff – General Aviation growing now/Consumption Up ( ) General Aviation will explode in the status quo Key ’01 (Chad -- Southern Methodist University School of Law -- Journal of Air Law and Commerce – Spring)

Many of the declining trends of the 1980s and early 1990s are showing signs of significant reversal. The General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) reported 1998 as "a record-breaking year for general aviation." 25 "The industry enjoyed the [*798] highest sales in its history at $ 5.9 billion, by selling 2,220 planes, the most in 15 years and a 41 percent increase over 1997." 26 The number of general aviation airplanes being built in the United States more than doubled from 1994 to 1999, and the number of new pilots in the nation, a key statistic, finally rose in 1998, ending a 30-year decline. 27 The total number of pilot licenses in the country rose in 1998 to 618,298, the first increase in a decade. 28 Additionally, the total number of hours flown by private pilots is also on the rise. 29 Approximately 26,000 people were issued private pilot licenses in 1998, compared with 21,500 in 1997. 30 As stated above, the booming U.S. economy has fueled the increased popularity of pleasure flying. Even with the reduced liability costs associated with producing aircraft, new general aviation aircraft are still pricey. In 1999, for example, "a new single-engine, four-passenger Piper Archer started at $ 169,000, with a list of optional equipment that could cause the price to take off quickly from there." 31 The older used airplanes have also retained their value, with many models regularly selling for $ 50,000 and up. 32 In fact, an airplane has traditionally been a good investment for a pilot who wants to fly anyway. While most automobiles depreciate, as they get older, small, pre-owned aircraft have typically held their value, or even appreciated in value, if they were well maintained. Aircraft Bluebook Price Digest reported that prices for single-engine, used aircraft have been rising for several years, and were up 8.5% in 1996 alone. 33 Of course, the costs of renting hangar space, regular aircraft maintenance, and taxes are not negligible. Still, many pilots feel that the enjoyment derived from owning an airplane can make the ownership experience worthwhile. [*799] 2. Reasons for the Renewed Popularity of General Aviation A significant cause driving renewed interest in general aviation is the growing demand for pilots by commercial airlines. As discussed below, airline passenger traffic is increasing at a rapid rate. The airlines are having a difficult time finding enough qualified pilots and crew to man their expanding flight itineraries. Traditionally, the majority of commercial pilots received their original pilot licenses and logged flight time in the military. Since the end of the cold war, however, the military has sharply decreased the number of pilots it is training on a yearly basis. Both commercial airlines and the military are running into shortages of qualified pilots. As a result, a growing portion of the individuals who begin training to obtain a private license see this training as the first step toward becoming a pilot for a major airline. "More than half of all domestic carrier pilots now come out of general aviation." 34 These pilots must generally log at least 800 to 1,000 hours to be seriously considered for employment by a large airline. 35

148

Avgas Aff – Inherency – A-to “Ethanol = Certified Now”

( ) The Aff is inherent – Their ev only describes FAA waivers – not true legalization. EPA ‘7

(Environmental Protection Agency Documents and Publications -- November 16, 2007 – lexis)

Friends of the Earth contends that "safe unleaded alternatives to aviation gasoline do exist. Since 1999, the research and development process has produced unleaded fuels that have received approval from the FAA for current use. Tens of thousands of low-performance aircraft have received supplemental type certificates allowing them to run on unleaded automobile gasoline (commonly referred to as mogas in the aviation community). Additionally, a mogas alternative, 82UL, has been developed for use by some low-performance planes. The combination of these two fuels can be utilized by nearly seventy percent of all piston-driven aircraft. Additionally, the

FAA allows a select number of planes to run on an ethanol based

aviation fuel (AGE85); the remaining thirty percent of general aviation planes can potentially use this unleaded gasoline."

( ) Ethanol not fully certified now EAA News ‘6

(Experimental Aircraft Association News -- http://www.eaa.org/news/2006/2006-0713_legislation.asp.)

"Despite several attempts by EAA and others, ethanol-blended gasoline, all grades, have not been able to meet the FAA flight safety fuel certification standards," he wrote. "As a result, the FAA prohibits these STC holders from using auto fuel containing ethanol." (the “he said” in this card is EAA President Tom Poberezny)

149

Avgas – Aff – Certification = the barrier ( ) Certification is the barrier – each type of engine and frame needs certification Laudner ‘1

(Kelly, M.S. -- FROM PROMISE TO PURPOSE: OPPORTUNITIES AND CONSTRAINTS FOR ETHANOL-BASED TRANSPORTATION FUELS -- Submitted to Michigan State University, Department of Resource Development -http://www.michigan.gov/documents/CIS_EO_Ethanol_Thesis_87917_7.pdf)

The use of ethanol in piston aircraft alone could eventually be a considerable market for ethanol; there are approximately 200,000 piston aircraft in the U.S.90 However, the road to widespread use of ethanol in aviation may be a long one. Each engine type and airframe/engine together must be certified to run on any “new” fuel, such as ethanol. Receiving certification means that the aircraft can be used for commercial operations when running on the fuel.

150

Avgas – Aff – FAA Key/Certification Key ( ) FAA certification is key – has a unique symbolic value that effects market expansion. Nelson ’99

(Jessica Nelson is a researcher with the Institute for Local Self-Reliance. High on Ethanol -- Fall http://www.mncorn.org/servlet/mcga/resource/foodenergy.iml?area_id=14&article_id=794&display =Y&thispage=resource/foodenergy.iml)

More important to the ethanol industry, however, may be the precedent that the FAA action sets. As Max Shauck puts it, the certification of ethanol has "symbolic" value. Because FAA certification standards are so rigorous, the success of AGE85 is a big step towards proving ethanol to be a high-performance, reliable fuel.

151

Avgas – Aff – Defending the FAA

( ) FAA enforcement power is unique – it has deep experience issuing the most powerful threats within the USFG. Costello ’98

(By Frank J. Costello -- American Bar Association -- Forum on Air & Space Law -- 1998 Annual Update Conference -- Washington, D.C.-- January 30 -http://www.zsrlaw.com/publications/speeches/fjc980130.htm)

The FAA's safety enforcement role is unique in American jurisprudence. No other agency of the federal government is accorded as much latitude to engage in activities which, in any other context, would be considered gross deprivations of basic constitutional rights. As Judge Wald of the D.C. Circuit observed in her concurring and dissenting opinion in the most recent appeal from the FAA's "Age 60" rule, the deference accorded to an agency "is most acute in regard to safety determinations, given the potential catastrophic effects of inadequate safety regulations, and it is difficult to imagine an agency decision which judges would be more disposed to accept than one that implicates aviation safety." Professional Pilots Federation v. Federal Aviation Administration, 118 F.3d 758, 776 (1997).

The premise underlying this latitude is that absent the direct intervention of the federal bureaucracy, FAA certificate holders would not adhere to a high level of safety and security. It is an interesting intellectual exercise to challenge the validity of that premise, but it is not very practical or political to do so. Participants in aviation just have to accept the fact that each certificate issued by the FAA carries with it the threat of martial law. But that also places a special responsibility on the FAA and its congressional overseers to act responsibly.

( ) FAA is the only agency that will get compliance. NewsHour ’99 TOM BEARDEN: What

(NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, August 19, 1999 – lexis)

do you think of the FAA's response to this?

PATRICIA CONNELY: I think they're not taking any responsibility. It almost sounds like a bogus association. Let's

face it, the FAA is supposed to be there for protection, and the FAA is the only agency that the airlines will listen to. TOM BEARDEN: As the FAA puts its public education campaign into effect, it concedes it has no firm numbers on accidents, no plans to require accidents to be reported, and no firm numerical yardstick to measure when that campaign might or might not be successful. Are the other efforts at changing passenger behavior, the templates and rules and announcements, working? Is the number of injuries being reduced? Only the airlines know for sure, and they aren't talking.

152

Avgas – Aff – Defending the FAA cont’ ( ) Only the FAA has the legal authority to mandate industry-wide change on Fuel issues.

Gannett ’97

(Gannett News Service – USA Today – March 5th – lexis)

Investigators still don't know what triggered the explosion that disintegrated TWA Flight 800 over ocean waters off New York last July. Investigators do know that the catastrophic event originated in the plane's near-empty center fuel tank and doomed all 230 passengers and crew. That finding -- combined with troubling similarities in center-fuel-tank explosions of other jets -- is the reason the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)

issued urgent recommendations in December to minimize dangers posed by explosive fuel-air mixtures in center tanks. So what's changed on U.S. planes since then? Nothing. The Federal Aviation Administration -- the only agency with the power to mandate change in the industry -- is pursuing caution rather than urgency on the issue of fuel-tank dangers.

153

Avgas – Aff – Solvency – A-to “Infrastructure Concerns make Fuel Transition Difficult” ( ) Infrastructure not a barrier -- Transition to Ethanol would be smooth Alvarez ‘5

(Sergio Alvarez, The Baylor Institute of Air Science, Baylor University -- FROM CONCEPT TO REALITY: A SMALL AIR QUALITY SAMPLING AIRCRAFT POWERED BY ETHANOL -http://www3.baylor.edu/bias/publications/FromConcepttoRealit.pdf)

B.I.A.S. is currently working with the FAA to conduct a program of additional testing to insure the feasibility and safety of blends of ethanol and Avgas in the field. The

motivation for this research is based on the assumption that the placement of ethanol in the market place will have to allow a phase-in stage in which either fuel, Avgas or ethanol, could be the only available fuel at a given airport. This will permit ease of operation and no decrease in mobility, and it would result, even during the phase-in stage, in cost savings both at the pump and in reduced operational costs.

154

Avgas – Aff – Solvency – A-to “Ethanol Cannot compete”

( ) Ethanol may generally not be competitive – but this is not true in the context of aviation. Morris ’94

(David Morris, Institute for Local Self-Reliance, Biological Energy: Opportunities and Obstacles – June 7th -- http://www.me3.org/issues/biomass/1bspch2.html )

Ethanol production is still expanding, thanks to the 1990 Clean Air Act, which requires that gasoline contain oxygen during the winter months in certain urban areas. But the tax incentives for ethanol were originally expected to be temporary, as gasoline prices were expected to be over $1.50 a gallon by now. Ethanol production costs did decline, from about $1.80 to $1.10-$1.20 per gallon. But ethanol faces a sunset of its federal tax benefits in the year 2000. And today it competes with a new generation of low cost non-petroleum fuels that are more environmentally benign and lower cost than ethanol, like natural gas, electricity, propane or methanol. The only major market where ethanol might be able to compete straight up as a fuel is in air transportation. The first aircraft engines that run on ethanol are just now being certified.

155

Avgas – Aff – Solvency – AGE-85 ready to replace Avgas now

( ) The market could easily transition to AGE-85 now Castonguay-Vanier ‘5

(Josee Castonguay-Vanier – Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of, USRA-University / BRPC-Université, -- SPECIAL TOPICS NRSD 374Biofuels in North America – Sept 25th -http://www.transportdurable.qc.ca/document2/Biofuels-special-topics-nrds-374.pdf)

Aviation Grade Ethanol (AGE-85) is a high-performance, 85 percent ethanol-blended fuel for use in any reciprocating engine aircraft. AGE-85 is beginning to replace 100 octane low lead aviation gasoline (avgas), which has been the standard leaded gasoline for aviation since World War II. Although avgas is the single largest contributor of lead in the atmosphere today, the Environmental Protection Agency has allowed its use until a suitable unleaded replacement can be found. More than 300

AGE-85 offers a substantial improvement in performance for these aircraft, producing at least 12 percent more horsepower and torque at typical cruising power. Because this fuel causes considerably less buildup of combustion byproducts in the engine, the time between engine overhauls is greater and maintenance costs are lower (American Coalition for Ethanol – ACE-, 2004). million gallons of avgas are used each year by the piston engine fleet in the United States – including aircraft made by companies like Piper, Cirrus, and Cessna.

( ) AGE-85 is ready to go – meets performance standards, and is economically superior to avgas. Science Daily ’99

(July 20th -- http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/07/990720083151.htm)

Piston-engine aircraft will soon be able to use a new low-cost, lead-free alternative fuel that is based largely on ethanol and other agricultural products. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) recently certified the fuel, which is about 85 percent ethanol and contains a high-octane petroleum product and agriculturally derived "biodiesel" for lubrication. Because of its high percentage of agricultural components, the fuel is known as AGE85. AGE85 was developed during a three-year research project funded by the South Dakota Corn Utilization Council (SDCUC) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The National Alternative Fuels Laboratory (NAFL) formulated the fuel at the University of North Dakota Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC). Aircraft testing and certification were performed by South Dakota State University in Brookings, Great Planes Fuel Development in Watertown, S.D., Lake Area Technical Institute in Watertown, and Texas Skyways of Boerne, Texas.

Currently, aviation gasoline (known as "avgas") for piston-engine aircraft contains four times more lead than was used in leaded automotive gasoline before it was banned from use in new cars in 1973. However, because the lead additive has been the most economical method for achieving 100-octane fuel, leaded avgas has remained the standard for high-performance piston-engine planes. To avoid damaging the general aviation industry, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) agreed to permit the use of leaded avgas until an economic alternative was developed. That time has come, according to Ted Aulich, the EERC research manager in charge of the NAFL. "We believe that AGE85 is the economic alternative," Aulich says. "Based on a current price of pure ethanol at 95 cents a gallon, AGE85 is expected to sell at the pump for about $1.10 per gallon, compared to the current avgas price of $2 per gallon." Jim Behnken of Great Planes says, "AGE85 is a high-performance, high-octane fuel -- just what newer, high-performance, highcompression aircraft engines need."

156

Avgas – Aff – Solvency – AGE-85 ready to replace Avgas now cont’

( ) AGE 85 is ready to replace AVGAS now. Lynch ‘8

(Kerry Lynch, managing editor of The Weekly of BUSINESS AVIATION and recipient of the Aviation Journalism Excellence Award. Aviation Week – March 24th -http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=busav&id=news/LEAD03248.xml)

Friends of the Earth believes that unleaded fuel alternative AGE85 could be suitable for higher-performance aircraft and already is approved for some low-performance planes. "With the phase-out of leaded aviation fuel on the regulatory horizon, older aircraft models that are unable to process unleaded fuel should be grounded or phased out," Friends of the Earth argues. "With the existing availability of both airplanes and fuels that can operate safely and effectively without lead, neither the EPA nor the FAA retain any discretion to postpone rulemaking that eliminates lead emissions." Any further delay in regulation of lead emissions, Friends of the Earth said, "would be arbitrary, capricious and an abuse of EPA's rulemaking discretion."

157

Avgas – Aff – General Aviation = key to PRC regional economies ( ) Beijing’s Internal White Papers concede that civil aviation is a crucial component of rural underdevelopment. White Paper ’01

(as printed in Full Text of White Paper on Rural China's Poverty Reduction -- XINHUA GENERAL NEWS SERVICE October 15th)

China is a developing country with a large population, a meager heritage and an underdeveloped economy, especially in the rural areas. In terms of the poverty-stricken areas in China, the underdevelopment is mainly reflected in the following: First, weak infrastructure. In the western region, where most of these areas are located, although the territory is over two-thirds of the nation's total, the proportions of railways, highways and civil aviation facilities are relatively low. Second, a rapidly growing population, and the low level of education, public health and other basic social services. In contrast to the backward economy, the poverty-stricken areas are usually noted for their rapidly growing populations. Due to the poor conditions for running schools and backward education facilities, a great number of schoolage children are unable to go to school or obliged to discontinue their studies, and the illiteracy rate of the young and middleaged is high. These areas are also characterized by a very low level of health care work. Third, poor agricultural production conditions, low revenue, and seriously inadequate public input. In 1986, the per-capita motive power of agricultural machinery in the counties on the state's priority poverty relief list accounted for only 50 percent of the national average. In 1993, the per-capita revenue in these counties was 60 yuan, only about 30 percent of the national average.

( ) General aviation in China is lagging now – this is a unique economic drag. Xin ‘6

(Xin Dingding, China Daily, March 16th -- http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/200603/16/content_540207.htm.)

Apart from airlines' scheduled flights and military aircraft, general

aviation encompasses almost everything that flies; and ranges from corporate jets, companies which cater to businesses and air taxis to crop-dusting, cloud seeding and aerial photography. "It has many advantages such as flexibility and efficiency," said Wu Changping, director of the general aviation division of the General Administration of Civil Aviation (CAAC). "The proper development of the country's civil aviation sector needs a balanced growth of scheduled and general aviation operations."

There is an increasing need for business flights and air taxi services to keep pace with China's growing economy, Wu said. "More multinational companies are opening branches in China, and more Chinese companies are expanding. They all need flights other than those provided by airlines." Globally, there are about 340,000 general aviation aircraft, making up 97 per cent of the 350,000 civil aviation airplanes; but in China, the number of general aviation airplanes is less than half of the total aircraft. CAAC statistics show that at the end of 2005, there chalked up about 80,000 flight hours last year.

were more than 600 general aviation airplanes in China, which

158

Avgas – Aff – A-to “China c/n produce enough ethanol for its GA sector” ( ) China pushing localized ethanol production now. China Business News On-Line ’04

(December 2, 2004)

Henan Province has officially launched the provincial promotion of ethanol gasoline, an official from the local Ethanol Gasoline Promotion Office told Interfax today. According to the official, the province-wide promotion campaign was based on the successful experiences in the three pilot cities of Zhengzhou, Luoyang and Nanyang over the past three years. "The trial promotion since 2001 in our province ran smoothly and thus helped us accumulate quite a lot of experience. We are therefore confident about promotion in the whole province, and there is strong backing from the provincial government," the head of the promotion office, surnamed Ren, told Interfax.

After a transition period where normal gasoline and ethanol gasoline will both be sold from late November to December 15, all gasoline sales outlets in Henan will only be allow to sell ethanol gasoline, with the exception of gasoline used for military and state reserve purposes. It was also revealed that wholesale price of ethanol gasoline would be lowered by RMB 100 (USD 12.1) per ton and the retail price would be lowered by RMB 0.1 (USD 0.012) per liter at the beginning of the campaign. As Interfax previously reported, the National Development and Reform Commission, China's

economic planner, said this October that the country would continue to promote ethanol gasoline in China and enable more than a hundred domestic cities to use the clean energy by the end of 2005. Apart from Henan, another eight pilot provinces are undergoing trials or provincial promotion campaigns, including Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Anhui, Hubei, Shandong, Hebei and Jiangsu.

( ) Ethanol production increasing in Northeast China China Daily – ’04 (November 29, 2004)

To meet the ever increasing demand for ethanol gasoline for vehicles in Northeast China's Heilongjiang Province, officials are planning on transforming 345,000 tons of stale grain into the fuel additive. The grain is out-of-date and inedible and had been kept in storage in numerous barns. Since November 1, all gasoline stations in the province have been ordered to provide ethanol-enhanced gasoline.

( ) China can be a domestic supplier of ethanol Governors’ Ethanol Coalition Meeting ’03

(Hall of States -- Washington, DC -- February 24, 2003 – http://www.ethanolgec.org/aboutus/images/Minutes_Washington_D.C._Meeting.doc)

Brazil - Edwardo Carvalho - Edwardo said they are trying to encourage sugar producers, those who produce both sugar and ethanol, process sugar cane juices into ethanol.

The international market needs more than two major suppliers

such as Brazil and the USA. Japan has a serious pollution problem with no alternative. A commission will decide on a 5% ethanol blending experience. Their present ethanol consumption is 60 billion liters or 15 billion plus gallons a year, three billion liters of which Brazil cannot supply. Japan will not make a commitment to ethanol use if there is only one supplier.

Other

potential suppliers include the United States, Thailand, China, Egypt, and Australia.

159

Avgas – Aff – Uneven Chinese Growth  Internal Migration/HIV Transmission ( ) Uneven Chinese growth causes internal migration – which independently collapses China and causes a massive increase in AIDS transmission. Pei ’02

(Minxin Pei is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – Newsweek – October 28th)

Yet with each passing year this "China"--which accounts for only 30 percent of the population--looks less and less like the rest of the nation. An

entirely different China sweeps across the country's vast hinterland--a landscape denuded by thousands of years of cultivation by small farmers. Nearly 600 million downtrodden peasants populate this, the former cradle of Chinese civilization, and their circumstances are declining. No Western chipmakers are rushing to set up factories in places like Kaifeng, the former capital of the Sung dynasty. Even worse, China's accession to the World Trade Organization will ultimately open the doors to cheap Western grains and fruits, driving millions out of business. These Chinese already earn 25 percent less than the national average-some $700 per year--and yet are inundated with locally imposed taxes and fees. Despite their mind-boggling numbers, they have no representatives on the Politburo.

Their woes are mirrored in China's northeastern provinces. Once the country's industrial heartland, this is now its rust belt. Shuttered state-owned factories pockmark a gloomy landscape. Unemployed workers, when they are not demonstrating for jobs and back pay, gather on street corners looking for work. And economic hardship is not the only source of misery for the 107 million people trapped in the ruins of state socialism. An even bigger scourge is corrupt government and organized crime. The rest of the People's Republic resembles nothing so much as a frontier. These vast and sparsely populated margins are home to the country's ethnic minorities--Tibetans, Uighurs, the myriad hill tribes of Yunnan. Illiteracy and poverty rates are high--per capita income in 2000 was 35 percent below the national average--and central control, often personified by Han settlers and military garrisons, is resented. In fact, the region's stunning natural beauty and famed hospitality belie a deeply troubled relationship with Beijing: during previous periods of imperial collapse, this Wild West was the first to bolt. Today, pro-independence sentiments simmer in the two largest provinces, Tibet and Xinjiang. Yet despite the area's outward backwardness, it is hard to imagine China without this region, which encompasses more than half the country's land mass. Finally, there is the Chinese diaspora. If the Overseas Chinese community, including Hong Kong and Taiwan, were imagined into a separate China, it would have a population of about 55 million and a GDP of $1 trillion in 1999 (the same as the People's Republic). Like two other great diasporas (Jewish and Indian), this "bamboo network" is really a web of knowledge and commerce. It has also become the Middle Kingdom's most valuable link to the rest of the world: in the past two decades this community has channeled more than $200 billion in investment to the mainland and helped build an export juggernaut in light manufacturing and consumer electronics. At the same time, many of these ethnic Chinese bring with them an experience of democratic freedoms that Beijing would rather keep from its citizens. Maintaining some semblance of cohesion over this vast, diverse land overwhelmed all but the most competent Chinese imperial rulers. The price has been steep. For centuries the country was divided into warring kingdoms. Communism promised to change all that, yet its blunders have only deepened China's underlying fissures. The fanaticism of the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976) alienated ethnic minorities. The government misallocated resources to capital-intensive heavy industries and neglected agriculture. Worse, Mao Zedong, who had never tilled the land, issued detailed edicts on how crops should be grown ("plow deep and sow densely"), with predictable consequences. State planning restricted the free flow of labor and capital. These policies kept people poor--and doubled regional income disparities from 1952 to 1978. At first the reforms introduced by Deng Xiaoping reversed the trend. With market forces, not the government, channeling people and money, income disparities fell by 20 percent between 1979 and 1991. But Deng undermined this process with his famous call to "let some get rich first." In practice, this meant giving priority to the coast. Foreign investors arrived en masse, pouring more than $300 billion into China in the 1990s. Within a decade, the entire eastern seaboard had been transformed--Industrial Revolution, Chinese style. At the same time, industrial decay spread throughout the northeast as Beijing dragged its heels on reforming moribund state-owned enterprises. Progress in large agrarian provinces stalled as farmers could squeeze no more out of their land. Beijing, starved for revenue, began to force citizens to pay for their own medical treatment and education--which in practice meant that many peasants received neither. Throughout this period, the Wild West was practically forgotten.

By 1999, regional inequalities had returned to 1978 levels.

Those yawning gaps are only going to grow wider. The market promotes efficiency, not equality. The flow of money and people from the hinterland and rust belt to the coastal provinces will continue as long as the rewards there are greater. Those left behind are doomed to face slow growth, tattered social fabrics and crumbling local governments. Some have suggested these regional disparities could push the People's Republic toward disintegration. A more realistic danger is that the downtrodden Chinas will export their ills to rich China. An influx of millions of migrants could transform cities like Shanghai into Mumbai or Rio. Financial fraud, drug smuggling, the spread of HIV/ AIDS--these are among the problems. The coastal provinces are defenseless against these threats. China's famed dynamism is not unstoppable. Regional inequality, economic stagnation and political decay at the local level could fracture the country's internal markets. An even more potent danger lurks behind this socioeconomic fragmentation--a political fragmentation that has already begun. Beijing's authority is likely to erode as provincial governments, disillusioned about the center's ability to look after their needs, decide to take matters into their own hands.

Avgas – Aff – Ozone/immuno-deficiency Add-on ( ) Ozone loss causes immuno-suppression – that’s our Full of Holes ev from the 1AC.

160

( ) Strong immune systems key to checking next wave of mega-diseases AHCC ’5

(Natural Protection Against Infection -- Active Health Care Centres -http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/Dr_John/infectn.htm)

Today, health officials and lay people alike are expressing great concern over the future health of the human family. The emergence of so many debilitating and/or life threatening infectious conditions testifies to a present-day infection epidemic. Doctors are being challenged to diagnose and manage a wide variety of infections ranging from the common cold to perplexing conditions such as CMV (cytomegalovirus), EBV (Epstein Barr virus), CFIDS (chronic fatigue and immunodeficiency syndrome), HIV (human immunodeficiency syndrome), and AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome). Many have come to agree with Nobel Prize winning bacteriologist Joshua Lederberg that viral infection is the biggest single threat to human survival! Compounding that concern is the discovery that bacterial infection, once easily managed with antibiotics, now pose a serious threat to the health of the general population. According to Alexander Tomasz of Rockefeller University in New York City, a leading authority in the study of antibiotic resistant bacteria, many common bacteria have developed antibiotic resistance and are evolving into forms untreatable by all known medications. The rise of drug-resistant bacteria is "unparalleled in recorded biologic history" says Dr. Stuart Levy of Tufts University. One resistant bacterium can bear 16,777,220 offspring within 24 hours and can, even more insidiously, pass on its resistance to unrelated microbes. Tomasz stated that in a world where antibiotics don't work, the

simplest infection could quickly escalate into fatal illness. His concerns are shared by doctors at the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta who said, "It's potentially an extremely serious problem." They reported in 1992 that 13,300 hospital patients died of infections that resisted every drug doctors tried. Prevention: the Best Medicine Microscopic war rages constantly within your body but you are not normally aware that these incessant battles against infection are being fought. The attackers are tiny but can be plentiful and lethal. Some, like the virus that causes AIDS, are so small that 230 millions of them could fit on the period at the end of this sentence. Ideally, your immune system will automatically provide legions of defenders, a wonderful network of organs and specialized cells that are constantly vigilant, forever fighting to keep you healthy. But sometimes your defenders are caught in a weakened state, and you develop a cold, the flu, or a more serious infection. We at Active Health Care Centre agree with the saying "Prevention

is the best

medicine." We promote optimal support of the body's innate and miraculous infection fighting ability now, reducing our dependence on antibiotics later. We advocate maximizing the state of immune system readiness and functionality and minimizing periods of immune weakness.

( ) The impact is extinction. Fieger ’4

(Leslie Fieger – founder of Learning Frontier Technologies Inc and heavily published author on health & financial issues -- The Precipice -- http://www.lesliefieger.com/articles/precipice.htm)

There is much, much more. The very real and growing dangers of using human created weapons of mass destruction in resource wars (oil now, water tomorrow);

looming viral and prion pandemics ravaging chemically weakened immune systems all help to define the precipice we stand on, the crisis point we face. Ignoring the reality of it or avoiding the difficult choices that must be made will only serve to accelerate the end of human society as we know it and probably, even human existence.

161

Avgas – Aff – Montreal Protocol – A-to “Alt Cause Methyl Bromide” ( ) The NRDC blocked the Bush plan to permit agricultural uses for Methyl Bromide. OnEarth ’04

(June 22, 2004)

When scientists discovered that chlorofluorocarbons and other man-made chemicals were destroying the earth's protective ozone layer, the United States and 56 other nations agreed to eliminate these chemicals under a 1987 treaty known as the Montreal Protocol. Under the treaty, the most potent of these chemicals still in widespread use--a pesticide called methyl bromide--is supposed to be eliminated by 2005. But last year, the Bush administration tried to reverse the methyl bromide phaseout, requesting exemptions to boost production. NRDC helped block the proposal by revealing that American chemical producers and distributors already hold huge stockpiles of methyl bromide. Other countries refused to go along with super-size U.S. exemptions, leaving the Montreal Protocol near collapse. In March, the parties reached a one-year compromise. "The good news is that methyl bromide production won't go up next year," says NRDC attorney David Doniger. "The bad news is that it won't go down either." ( ) Avgas accesses your methyl Bromide arguments a)

Avgas violates the methyl bromide provisions of the Protocol. Aero Safety and Maintenance ’99

(September 3, 1999)

Scientists, who have been trying to come up with a 100-octane replacement for leaded avgas ever since the auto ban, picked up the pace when the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments mandated elimination of tetra-ethyl lead from all fuels by Jan. 1, 1996. On top of that, the Montreal Protocol signed by most of the world's nations mandated eliminating methyl bromide compounds - one of the products of burning 100 low-lead (LL) - by last year.

b)

These provisions are uniquely sensitive. Doniger ’3

(as quoted in Salon.com -- David Doniger is the policy director of the Climate Center of the Natural Resources Defense Council.-- August 20, 2003)

Doniger worries that the

Bush administration request, if approved by the United Nations, may weaken the will of other nations. "If the United States backs out of its methyl bromide phaseout, you could see the developing countries balking not only about phasing out methyl bromide, but other chemicals as well. Why should they go to strenuous efforts to get rid of them ... when America isn't meeting its commitments? We could see the whole treaty unravel."

162

Avgas Aff – Montreal Protocol Advantage – Avgas = Only Lead emitter in the USA ( ) Avgas is the only contributor to lead emissions in the US. Zanin ‘7

(Grazia Zanin is the Director of Research at the Baylor Institute for Air Science. She holds degrees in Earth Sciences and Environmental Sciences. She has been working in the areas research and development of renewable aviation fuels for the last 20 years. She was a pilot on the first transatlantic flight on ethanol fuel. -I.M.E.S., The Baylor Institute of Air Science, Baylor University -- The Green Airport Concept and the International Flight Academy on Biofuels – December -https://beardocs.baylor.edu/bitstream/2104/5133/1/Grazia_Zanin_Masters.pdf)

The CAA of 1970 did not live up to its expectations and since its ineffectiveness was further aggravated by increasing fuel consumption, a revision was urged. Consequently, the Congress came up with a massive piece of legislation known as the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA). To complete the successful phase-out of leaded gasoline that had started in the mid-1970s, the CAAA established the ban of fuel containing lead by January 1, 1992, with provisions for annual extensions until December 31, 1995, if adequate alternatives were unavailable. Due to the difficulties of finding and producing an unleaded alternative to the leaded aviation fuel, the Environmental Protection Agency granted a temporary waiver to Avgas to comply with the ban. As a result of reducing lead in other fuels, Avgas is now the only contributor of lead into the atmosphere from fuels in this country.

( ) Avgas is the only fuel containing lead in the US. Compton ‘8

(Timothy – MS, Baylor Institute for Air Sciences, Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of Baylor University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of International Master of Environmental ScienceApproved by the Committee, Maxwell E. Shauck, Jr., Ph.D., Chairperson -- Flight Performance Testing of Ethanol/100LL Fuel Blends During Cruise Flight – May -https://beardocs.baylor.edu/bitstream/2104/5150/1/Timothy_Compton_masters.pdf)

The fuel currently used by the general aviation segment is known as 100LL or avgas, short for aviation gasoline. 100LL avgas stands for 100 octane, low-lead, since the fuel contains Tetraethyl Lead (TEL), an anti-knocking additive that improves octane rating. The American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) specifications limit the maximum amount of lead contained in 100LL avgas to 2 grams per US gallon, which is equivalent to 0.56 grams/liter.1 Lead, a neurotoxin, has been removed from all other forms of conventional gasoline. 100LL avgas is now the only fuel in the United States still containing lead.

163

Avgas Aff – Montreal Protocol – US violations are key ( ) US violations are key – they are symbolic and risk unraveling the Protocol. Crobsy ’04

(Alan – correspondent for Rueter’s – Truthout -- Rich States' Demands Threaten Environment Treaty – Nov 25th -- http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/112704G.shtml)

"Sadly, the U.S. government is taking a series of domestic actions that threaten to place the country in non-compliance with the Montreal Protocol," said David Donegir, a former U.S. negotiator on ozone depleting substances during the Clinton administration.

"The U.S. is not alone ... Other countries are also seeking overly large exemptions. But the U.S. exemptions and noncomplying domestic actions stand out," Donegir, now policy director at the NRDC Climate center, added.

164

Avgas Aff – Maximum Compliance is key to Montreal Protocol ( ) Maximum Compliance key to solving Ozone IHT ’04 (The International Herald Tribune March 25, 2004 – lexis)

The meeting this week in Montreal, the protocol's birthplace, is the opportunity for the United States and the other industrialized countries to show global environmental citizenship by minimizing their requests for exemptions. With this move, they would shoulder their share of the responsibility for the well-being of current and future generations.

The conference has been dubbed a "make or break" meeting, but in reality we cannot afford to "break." The scientific consensus is that only full compliance with the Montreal Protocol will allow the ozone layer to regain its full protective power.

165

Avgas Aff – Ozone impacts – Extinction ( ) Ozone depletion results in extinction. Mastalir ’93

(Roger W. -- LL.M. in International and Comparative Law (May 1992) and J.D. (August 1991) University of Iowa College of Law; M.A. (June 1986) Oxford University. As footnoted in his article A PROPOSAL FOR PROTECTING THE "CULTURAL" AND "PROPERTY" ASPECTS OF CULTURAL PROPERTY UNDER INTERNATIONAL LAW -- Fordham International Law Journal)

If the ozone layer diminishes over population areas - and there is some evidence that it has begun to do so, although nowhere as dramatically as in the Antarctic - the consequences could be dire. Ultraviolet radiation, a form of light invisible to the human eye, causes sunburn and skin cancer; in addition, it has been linked to cataracts and weakening of the immune system. Without ozone to screen out the ultraviolet, such ills will certainly increase. The National Academy of Sciences estimates that a 1 % drop in ozone levels could cause 10,000 more cases of skin cancer a year in the U.S. alone, a 2 % increase." Kindt & Menefee, supra note 163, at 265-67. Theoretically, the complete destruction of the ozone layer would result in the extinction of life on earth... A "decreasing' ozone layer would affect life on earth ... A list of predictions follows including increases in cancers and cataracts, alteration of plants and ecosystems, acid rain, degradation of polymers used in industry, and increased "greenhouse warming.'

( ) Absence of ozone layer results in total extinction. Earth & Society ’98

(THE OZONE LAYER: IMPORTANT COMPONENTS OF OZONE EDUCATION -http://www.umich.edu/~gs265/society/ozone.htm)

The ozone layer is essential for human life. It is able to absorb much harmful ultraviolet radiation, preventing penetration to the earth’s surface. Ultraviolet radiation (UV) is defined as radiation with wavelengths between 290-320 nanometers, which are harmful to life because this radiation can enter cells and destroy the deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) of many life forms on planet earth. In a sense, the ozone layer can be thought of as a “UV filter” or our planet’s “built in sunscreen” (Geocities.com, 1998). Without the ozone layer, UV radiation would not be filtered as it reached the surface of the earth. If this happened, “cancer would break out and all of the living civilizations, and all species on earth would be in jeopardy” (Geocities.com, 1998). Thus, the ozone layer essentially allows life, as we know it, to exist. ( ) Ozone layer is crucial to check complete extinction. Pidwirny ’99

(Dr. Michael Pidwirny, Department of Geography, Okanagan University College -FUNDAMENTALS OF PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY -http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/7b.html)

Above the tropopause is the stratosphere. This layer extends from an average altitude of 11 to 50 kilometers above the Earth's surface. This stratosphere contains about 19.9 % of the total mass found in the atmosphere. Very little weather occurs in the stratosphere. Occasionally, the top portions of thunderstorms breach this layer. The lower portion of the stratosphere is also infuenced by the polar jet stream and subtropical jet stream. In the first 9 kilometers of the stratosphere, temperature remains constant with height. A zone with constant temperature in the atmosphere is called an isothermal layer. From an altitude of 20 to 50 kilometers, temperature increases with an increase in altitude. The higher temperatures found in this region of the stratosphere occurs because of a localized concentration of ozone gas molecules. These molecules absorb ultraviolet sunlight creating heat energy that warms the stratosphere. Ozone is primarily found in the atmosphere at varying concentrations between the altitudes of 10 to 50 kilometers. This layer of ozone is also called the ozone layer . The ozone layer is important to organisms at the Earth's surface as it protects them from the harmful effects of the sun's ultraviolet radiation. Without the ozone layer life could not exist on the Earth's surface.

166

Avgas Aff – Protocol Solves/small violations cause extinction

( ) Montreal Protocol is working and will repair the ozone hole – small violations could make the difference and cause complete extinction. South African Weather Service ’03

(Sept 15th -- Commemoration of the International Day for the Preservation of the Ozone Layer, "World Ozone Day" -http://www.weathersa.co.za/Pressroom/2003/2003Sep15OzoneDay.jsp)

Since the establishment of the Protocol, which can be hailed as one of the first and most successful international and intergovernmental agreements, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Program has undertaken regular Scientific Ozone Assessments. Numerous studies based on observations that have provided new key findings have strengthened the overall understanding of the ozone layer and its effect of UV radiation. Very recently emphasis is also being placed on the interconnection aspects of Ozone Depletion/probable recovery and Climate Change. The process of ozone recovery is getting closer, due to drastic steps taken to reduce the use of ozone depletion substances. Predictions indicate that normal, pre-1980 ozone levels will only be reached by the middle of this century, if the world maintains its protection actions. It this must be emphasised that failure by all nations to comply with the Protocol would not only delay the Ozone Layer recovery, but it could also prevent it. This International Day provides an opportunity for the international community to reflect on the progress that has been made, and to remind decision-makers and the public of the need to protect this valuable shield that safeguards our planet. Without the ozone layer all life forms on earth will not exist and the battle to repair this life-sustaining atmospheric system is still far from over.

167

Avgas Aff – Ozone – A-to “Its all environmental Doomsdaying” ( ) We’re not environmental doomsday. Kangas ’05

(Steve -- editor; Liberalism Resurgent -- Myths about the Environment – Feb 9th http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/L-doomsday.htm

It's hardly true that environmentalist doomsday scenarios have always been proven wrong. A major one they got right was the destruction of the ozone layer -- without which the sun's deadly ultraviolet rays would have killed most if not all life on the planet. Thanks to quick and top-level scientific research, the alarm was sounded and all the nations of the world agreed to ban the chemicals responsible. F. Sherwood Rowland, Paul Crutzen and Mario Molina deserve far more than their Nobel prizes.

However, science is a human activity, and mistakes are often made. This is why scientific consensus is so important. When the arguments of any given theory are so strong and compelling that they sway a majority of scientists, the chances for human error are greatly diminished. Not eliminated, mind you -- just greatly diminished.

The following is a list of well-supported theories that enjoy broad scientific consensus: Man-made chemicals are destroying the ozone layer. (1) Man-made chemicals are causing global warming. (2) Most agriculture, fish and water resources have either reached their limit or are declining, despite a growing population. (3) Death and cancer rates are higher around toxic waste sites, the chemical industry and the nuclear industry. (4) The extinction rate is climbing. (5) The world's rain forests are declining. (6) The world's coral reefs are declining. (7) More insects and bacteria are becoming immune to the pesticides and vaccinations used against them. (8)

Still, it's possible to find scientists who hold beliefs outside the consensus, including cranks on the margins who espouse bizarre and crazy theories. They might be right -- but if so, then the evidence that they find so compelling should be compelling to other scientists as well, and eventually this initially odd theory will itself become mainstream science. More often than not, however, these strange theories languish on the margins, for want of compelling evidence.

168

Avgas Aff – Montreal Protocol Solves – will fix ozone hole now ( ) The ozone hole will be fixed in the status quo – compliance with the Protocol is key. UNDP ’02

(United Nations Development Programme -- INTERNATIONAL DAY FOR THE PRESERVATION OF THE OZONE LAYER -- 16 SEPTEMBER 2002 -http://www.undp.org.gy/media/ozone.html)

Over the past ten years, implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its various amendments have led to a dramatic drop in the production and consumption of ozone depleting substances. Scientists now predict that the ozone layer depletion will begin to ameliorate within the next decade or so. A return to some semblance of normalcy is predicted around 2050 provided that the Montreal Protocol and its amendments are fully implemented by all member countries. In the absence of full compliance, the experts say that recovery of the ozone layer could extend well beyond 2100.

( ) Ozone layer will be fixed now – compliance with the Protocol is key. UNEP ’04

(United Nations Environmental Programme – OzonAction Programme – Sept 16th -http://www.uneptie.org/ozonaction/compliance/atwork/main.html)

This Friendship Ceremony took place in the overall context of the Global Communication Strategy developed by UNEP under the Multilateral Fund. Scientists predict that the world community's action under the Montreal Protocol will restore the health of the ozone layer by mid-century if national actions to meet compliance targets are sustained as planned. Awareness among school children is necessary to reinforce ozone friendly behaviour in their parents, relatives and community. Additionally, those children should be encouraged to become the environmentally-responsible citizens now and in the future.

169

Avgas – Aff – Fuel Prices = key to High Food Prices ( ) High Energy prices are the reason US food prices are increasing now. Greenwire ‘8

(March 27th – available via: http://www.earthportal.org/news/?p=976.)

Spurred by soaring energy costs, food prices at the supermarket checkout have risen nearly 8 percent this year — more than double the usual increase for an entire year, according to a survey released today. The American Farm Bureau Federation’s quarterly survey of 16 basic grocery items rang up a bill that was $3.42 higher than that in the fourth quarter of 2007. Buying flour, cheese, bread, meat, oil and produce cost $45.03. Retail food prices usually increase 3 percent per year on average, according to the Agriculture Department. But the cost of food worldwide has been exceeding that pace for the past year.

170

Avgas Aff – Ag advantage – Ag Aircrafts = Key ( ) Aerial aircraft is crucial to US agriculture. N.A.A.A. ’98

(NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL AVIATION ASSOCIATION – Testimony before the House Transportation Committee -- Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony -- August 6th)

In many instances throughout agricultural communities in America, aerial application may be the only method available to treat a crop. Such is the case with rice, which is grown in flooded fields. It is also the only service that can be used to treat pest infested fields that are too wet to enable ground equipment into the field. Aerial application is an important service for the agricultural community and this nation's food producing system. There are a limited number of aircraft designed to perform agricultural aviation services in the country. Furthermore, agricultural lands may be in remote areas, that require greater distances and time to reach.

( ) Agriculture aircraft is crucial for crop health, yields & maximizing efficiency for the ag sector. Waterloo Courier ’04 (March 29, 2004) Farmers and crop consultants are taking to the air to scout fields. Flyers say getting a bird's-eye view of crops is one of the best and quickest ways to spot drainage and weed problems, as well as fertilizer deficiencies. Many are taking off in ultralights --- small, lightweight aircraft with fabric wings --- because they can fly lower and slower over fields and they don't require a pilot's license. Plus, they're cheaper and the training is minimal compared to conventional aircraft. Yields are directly tied to soil fertility, insect and other problems. By correcting them, profits should take off as well. With cash soybean prices topping $ 10 per bushel last week, the first time in more than 30 years, Manchester farmer Mark Francis said relaxing joy rides are turned into aerial reconnaissance missions during the growing season. "It's become an important tool," said Francis, a licensed pilot who bought an ultralight a few years ago for fun. He farms 1,200 acres and also uses the aircraft to check on his cow/calf herd while in the pasture. As farms grow larger, time becomes an important commodity.

171

Avgas –Aff–A-to “Post-Plan, the market will transition to Diesel instead of Ethanol”

( ) Ag market will not transition to diesel – other barriers prevent.

Diesel Fuel News

2000

(September 11, 2000)

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) warns that farmers face very high fuel costs, potential equipment breakdowns, and lack of critical diesel fuel supplies during planting and harvesting as a result of U.S. EPA's proposed ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD) mandate in 2006.

172

Avgas –Aff–US food prices key to global food prices & world econ ( ) US food prices key to world food prices and global economy. Brown ’04

(Lester R. Brown – President of the Earth Policy Institute -- WORLD FOOD SECURITY DETERIORATING – Globalvision News Network -http://www.gvnews.net/html/DailyNews/040506environment.html)

If the estimated 2004 shortfall of 60 million tons materializes, it will take the world into uncharted territory. Either grain stocks will drop by 12 days of consumption, falling to an all-time low of 47 days, or food prices will rise and force a reduction in consumption--something that will be particularly difficult for the 3 billion people who live on less than $2 a day. In reality, the shortfall will be covered by some combination of declining stocks and rising prices. A shortfall on the scale projected almost guarantees the emergence of a politics of food scarcity in 2005 of the sort that occurred in the early 1970s, when exporting countries such as the United States restricted grain exports in order to curb the rise in domestic food prices. There are already early signs of this. In September 2002, Canada--on the heels of a heat-reduced harvest-announced it would limit wheat exports to assure that domestic needs were satisfied. Two months later, Australia, also experiencing a drought-reduced harvest, limited exports to its traditional customers only. In mid-2003, the European Union stopped issuing grain export certificates for several months. And in January 2004, Russia imposed an export tax on wheat to combat rising bread prices. The risk is that a year from now, lower grain stocks and soaring food prices could destabilize governments in low-income grain-importing countries on a scale that would disrupt global economic progress. If this lowers the Nikkei stock index, the Dow Jones 500, and other key indicators, we may realize that our economic future depends on a worldwide effort to stabilize population, raise water productivity, and stabilize climate--and at wartime speed.

( ) US key to global food prices LA Times ’97 (Los Angeles Times May 18, 1997) And does anybody even remember the grain price surge in the spring of 1996? Wheat, corn and soybean prices rocketed as the planting season in the Midwest got a late start. With the extremely low level of world grain stockpiles at the time, a poor U.S. crop could have set the stage for a leap in food prices worldwide--and perhaps a new inflationary spiral.

173

Avgas –Aff–US key to Global Food Production ( ) US key to global corn production Brown ’04

(Lester R. Brown – President of the Earth Policy Institute -- WORLD FOOD SECURITY DETERIORATING – Globalvision News Network -http://www.gvnews.net/html/DailyNews/040506environment.html)

Estimating the world harvest of corn, used mostly for feed, starts with the United States--which accounts for 40 percent of the crop. The U.S. area planted to corn is expected to be roughly the same as last year. Since the U.S. corn harvest is largely rainfed, and thus vulnerable to both heat and drought, yield can vary widely. It is doubtful that American farmers can match last year's record corn yield, but we will optimistically assume they can and that better crops elsewhere will be enough to raise the 2004 world corn crop by 10 million tons.

174

Avgas – Aff – Health harm ( ) Each molecule of Avgas causes health problems due to its massive lead content. Business & Technology ’02

(v.57 pages 36-8 May 2002 – obtained via Wilson select database)

Many general aviation specialists agree that today's most common piston engine fuel (avgas 100LL) will be unobtainable or very expensive within ten years. Despite

the fact that LL stands for "low lead", it should stand for "lots of lead" because the avgas contains a great deal of the additive and is thus high on the target list of environmentalists worldwide. It may be low in lead compared with the highly-leaded aviation fuels which preceded it, but it contains about four times as much lead as the long-banned leaded fuel for cars. In the form of a liquid, tetra-ethyl lead (TEL) is added to fuel to raise its octane, or anti-knock, rating. Knocking (pinking) is caused when the fuel/air mixture in the cylinder detonates too early, due to high compression ratios in high-performance engines, before the spark plug can ignite it. This delivers a series of hammer blows to the pistons and can lead to engine damage or even failure.

Each TEL molecule is effectively a lead atom in a hydrocarbon cage, which breaks down during compression. The lead and lead oxide, which are liberated, prevent knocking and help the mixture burn smoothly. The precise chemistry is complex but, unfortunately, the lead then exits the engine in the exhaust gases and is known to cause a number of health problems.

175

Avgas Aff -- Global Warming Advantage Plan uniquely important to solving Global Warming – aviation emissions are crucial because of altitude. Aviation Watch ‘8

(May 11th, 2008 -- http://aviationwatch.eu/?p=324.)

Alternative fuels for cars and trucks are becoming increasingly viable, but there’s another area of the transportation sector where they haven’t quite taken off: aviation. Convincing the aircraft industry to start full-scale use of petroleum alternatives won’t be easy because of the risks involved with testing new fuels in airplanes. If the switch can be made, though, there are several advantages to using biodiesel over traditional jet fuel, said Robert Dunn, a food and oil researcher at the U.S. Department of Agriculture. “It’s renewable, it can be domestically derived, it’s readily biodegradable, it’s relatively safe to handle and store … and it reduces most emissions,” Dunn said at the World Congress on Industrial Biotechnology and Bioprocessing held last week in Chicago. Any concerted effort to decrease global CO2 emissions will have to include the aviation industry, considering its large carbon footprint. The industry consumes 13 percent of the fossil fuels used by the transportation sector worldwide, according to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And the effects of airplane emissions are much harsher on the atmosphere because of the high altitudes at which they operate, said Max Schauck, chair of the Institute of Air Science at Baylor University in Waco, Texas. “There’s very little exchange with (air near) the ground, so the residence time of the pollutants is much longer and the air is less dense so it’s more fragile,” Schauck told United Press International. “This means that a substance does much more damage than the same quantity at a lower altitude.”

( ) Switching to biomass in aviation makes a significant decrease in GHG emissions. Alvarez ‘5 (Sergio Alvarez, The Baylor Institute of Air Science, Baylor University -- FROM CONCEPT TO REALITY: A SMALL AIR QUALITY SAMPLING AIRCRAFT POWERED BY ETHANOL -http://www3.baylor.edu/bias/publications/FromConcepttoRealit.pdf) The pending crisis in general aviation due to the growing pressure to remove lead from aviation gasoline (Avgas) is going to be exacerbated by emerging concerns. Issues such as aircraft emissions, the contribution of fossil fuels to greenhouse gases and recognition by the scientific community of global warming, will increase the pressure to adopt alternatives to fossil fuels in aviation. According to the Argonne National Laboratory1, for every gallon of petroleum replaced by corn ethanol, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by 35 percent, while for every gallon of gasoline replaced by biomass ethanol, the greenhouse gas reduction potential is greater than 100 % when keeping in account the co-production of electricity.

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Avgas Aff -- Air Monitoring Advantage – Global Warming Impact Module

Air Monitoring Data is key to effective warming policy. In particular, data enables verification.

WCRP ’05

(World Climate Research Programme Strategic Framework 2005-2015 -Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System – August -http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/Documents/SF_COPESSept05.pdf)

Detection of climate change requires the climate observing capability discussed in section 2.3. The attribution of trends in, for example, globally averaged surface temperature to natural or anthropogenic related forcing is important and will continue. However, there is increasing requirement to also attribute climate variability and change at regional and more local scales, including particular events such as the European summer heat wave of 2003 or regional longterm droughts. The attribution in this case is not confined to that of the role of human influences, but is also focussed on evaluating the different contributions to the atmospheric circulation anomalies from ocean and sea surface temperature anomalies, sea ice, soil moisture, and other influences. Such attributions and the information necessary for robust impact assessment and adaptation strategies require probability information on predictions of climate variables on regional scales, ensembles of model runs, well-tested methods for determining regional detail and a full understanding of patterns of climate variability on all time scales. The increasing understanding of and confidence in likely climate change and in the possibility of regional, if not global, thresholds in the climate system will enable a better political determination of the likelihood of “dangerous climate change” for different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Scenarios for the emission of greenhouse gases and other human impacts form the basis for climate projections. As the climate projection models include interactive modules that deal with the carbon cycle more comprehensively, they will improve the ability to translate the carbon emissions into atmospheric concentrations. Also, the assimilation of satellite and other data in Earth system models is likely to improve the ability to monitor regional greenhouse gas emissions and their sources, as well as the take up of carbon dioxide by the oceans and biosphere, an activity that will be essential in the verification of any global agreement to limit their production.

Verification vital to effective international action on warming. Anderson ‘02

(Dr Molly Anderson, Environment Researcher @ VERTIC. VERTIC is the Verification Research, Training and Information Centre, an independent, non-profit making, non-governmental organisation – Verification Yearbook – “Verification under the Kyoto Protocol” -http://www.vertic.org/assets/VY02_Anderson.pdf)

The successful implementation of the Kyoto framework will be heavily dependent on its verification and compliance regime. It is clear from the hard bargaining during negotiations in The Hague, Bonn and Marrakech that the stakes are high. While there are obvious environmental objectives for the process, each country is also influenced by the economic consequences of implementing its share of the deal. In fact, many countries consider the Kyoto Protocol to be as much an economic agreement as an environmental one.

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Avgas Aff -- Air Monitoring Advantage – Global Warming Impact Module cont’

Effective action on warming is crucial to planetary survival.

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