Politics Aff

Miami Debate Institute 2008 Politics & Elections

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Politics & Elections Affirmative Answers POLITICS & ELECTIONS AFFIRMATIVE ANSWERS................................................................................................................................1 OCS BUSH BAD POLITICS DA – AFF ANSWERS..............................................................................................................................2 OCS BUSH BAD POLITICS DA – AFF ANSWERS..............................................................................................................................3 ELECTIONS DA – AFF ANSWERS....................................................................................................................................................4 ELECTIONS DA – AFF ANSWERS....................................................................................................................................................5 NEG – ELECTIONS DA UNIQUENESS...............................................................................................................................................6

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Miami Debate Institute 2008 Politics & Elections

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OCS Bush Bad Politics DA – Aff Answers UNIQUENESS OVERWHELMS THE LINK

– DEMOCRATS ARE IDEOLOGICAL IN THEIR OPPOSITION TO OCS DRILLING

Anderson, 6/19/2008 (Ericka, Human Events, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=27083) President Bush -- almost sounding like former Speaker Newt Gingrich -- pushed for offshore oil drilling on America’s Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) yesterday, urging Congress to lift the legislative ban on exploration in that area. As the nation’s gas prices skyrocketed again this week -- in some places up to $4.30/gallon -- Democrats’ opposition to in-country drilling faces heavy criticism. Bush said his administration has “repeatedly called on Congress to expand domestic oil production” but “Democrats on Capitol Hill have rejected virtually every proposal.” Continued… With so many options, President Bush and Republicans hope Democrats will put aside environmental concerns in favor of increased energy independence, freedom and lower gas prices. That outcome seems highly unlikely, given the Dems absolute dedication to the global warming cult.

ZERO CHANCE OF OCS DRILLING

– IT HAS BECOME POLITICIZED AS AN ELECTION ISSUE

Associated Content, 6/18/2008 (http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/828797/bush_calls_for_drilling_in_anwr_ocs.html?page=3&cat=75) In a public statement at the White House President Bush made calls for opening US lands and seas to more oil drilling. Citing increasing prices and the hardships of Americans, Bush called for opening the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), ANWR and the Oil Shales of the Green River basin in Colorado to oil development. Bush acknowledged that it would take years to produce oil from these regions but noted a dire need for more domestic supply. Continued… Unfortunately, the Bush announcement has been timed to coincide with McCain campaign positions and Republican filibustering in the House and Senate in such a way as to politicize the issue for gain in an election year. Much of the electorate is now convinced that drilling will solve the oil crisis and this wedge issue is being used to blame democrats for the energy crisis by standing in opposition to domestic drilling on environmental and climate grounds. Nothing could be further from the truth. Democrats have worked hard to keep down the cost of energy and to shift to diverse and renewable energy sources ever since the oil shocks of the 1970s. It can be argued with confidence that Republican opposition to renewable energy programs has resulted in increased domestic dependence on oil at home and abroad. Higher efficiency standards for automobiles and a diverse energy base result in lower energy costs for all. Unfortunately the Republican push for reliance on oil and fossil fuels only has resulted in a resource crisis and energy crunch that has hurt Americans at a time when they needed the most help following a devastating real estate crisis.

THE UNITED STATES ALREADY ACQUIRES OIL FROM OFFSHORE DRILLING

– THE IMPACT IS NON-UNIQUE OR EMPIRICALLY DENIED

Charleston Gazette, 6/19/2008 (http://sundaygazettemail.com/News/200806180619) On Wednesday morning, President Bush proposed what might have seemed like a slam-dunk solution to America's growing pain at the pump: End the "legislative ban" on offshore oil drilling. By mid-afternoon, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., had joined Bush. Capito issued a news release headlined "Congress must lift drilling ban." But by the Bush administration's own figures, offshore drilling accounts for 27 percent of domestic oil production. And the vast majority of offshore U.S. reserves are already open to leasing by the industry, government data shows.

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Miami Debate Institute 2008 Politics & Elections

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OCS Bush Bad Politics DA – Aff Answers THEIR IMPACTS ARE INEVITABLE

– CURRENT BANS ON OCS DRILLING WILL EXPIRE IN FOUR YEARS

EIA, 2007 (Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/ongr.html) Although existing moratoria on leasing in the OCS will expire in 2012, the AEO2007 reference case assumes that they will be reinstated, as they have in the past. Current restrictions are therefore assumed to prevail for the remainder of the projection period, with no exploration or development allowed in areas currently unavailable to leasing. The OCS access case assumes that the current moratoria will not be reinstated, and that exploration and development of resources in those areas will begin in 2012.

NO IMPACT

– OUR AFF REMOVES THE NEED TO DRILL FOR OIL.

EVEN IF THEY WIN A LINK IN THE SHORT-TERM, SPECIES EXTINCTION WILL NOT

SNOWBALL BECAUSE THE PLAN GRADUALLY FACILITATES THE TRANSITION AWAY FROM AN OIL BASED ECONOMY

NO IMPACT

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A.)

OBAMA WILL WIN THE ELECTION NOW

Gallup, 2008 (“Americans Predict Obama Will Be Next U.S. President”, http://www.gallup.com/poll/107995/AmericansPredict-Obama-Will-Next-US-President.aspx) “But when Gallup asked voters who they believe will win the White House in November, the Democratic senator from Illinois has a clear advantage over his Republican Senate colleague from Arizona. As Gallup reports: Not only has Barack Obama recently opened a small lead over John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of voter preferences for the general election, but he leads McCain 52% to 41% in public perceptions of who will win in November. Reporting today on the results of a survey taken June 9-12, Gallup reports that "Democrats are slightly more confident that their presumptive nominee will prevail in November - 76 percent say Obama will win.'' Republicans are more bullish about McCain's chances -- 67 percent. "What tips the balance of national opinion more strongly in favor of Obama is that, by a nine-percentage point margin, independents join Democrats in believing Obama is likely to win,'' Gallup's Lydia Saad writes.

B.)

HE WOULD JUST REINSTATE THE BAN ON OFFSHORE DRILLING

Fox News, 6/19/2008 On Monday, GOP presidential candidate John McCain made lifting the federal ban on offshore oil and gas development a key part of his energy plan. McCain said states should be allowed to pursue energy exploration in waters near their coasts and get some of the royalty revenue. He repeated the call Tuesday, with his campaign launching an ad faulting Bush for not getting behind domestic production sooner. "In effect, our petrodollars are underwriting tyranny, anti-Semitism, the brutal repression of women in the Middle East, and dictators and criminal syndicates in our own hemisphere," the presumptive Republican presidential nominee said. Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate for president, opposes lifting the ban on offshore drilling and says that allowing exploration now wouldn't affect gasoline prices for at least five years.



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Miami Debate Institute 2008 Politics & Elections

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Elections DA – Aff Answers MCCAIN WILL WIN THE ELECTION NOW

Fox News, 7/7/2008 (http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/07/07/meet-the-candidates-obama-mccain-fine-tune-image-fornovember/) In 2007, the National Journal ranked Obama the most liberal U.S. senator. However, his public policy positions lately seem out of character with that title, as he tries to craft an image of the candidate who transcends partisanship and can usher in a shinier, better America. But Obama must first undo the perception that he’s a “radical,” Mayer said. “He’s trying to pass that very unquantifiable test of looking presidential,” Mayer said. Fortunately, he added, his credibility with the Democratic base will enable him to swim toward the center to counter that radical perception. Last week, Obama denied he was moving to the center, but several of his positions have called that claim into question. When the Supreme Court ruled two weeks ago that child rapists could not be sentenced to death, Obama sided with McCain in opposing the ruling. When the same court ruled that Americans have a constitutional right to keep guns in their homes for self-defense, in turn invalidating a 32-year-old ban on handguns in Washington, D.C., Obama and McCain both agreed with the decision. That seemed to run counter to a statement Obama’s campaign put out last year that said the handgun ban was “constitutional.” Obama also said this past week that he’s willing to “refine” his Iraq policy — though he insisted his plan to withdraw troops within 16 months of taking office remains unaltered. Meanwhile, the Illinois senator is emphasizing his upbringing, personal values and support of faith-based initiatives. Obama stressed the themes of national service, faith and patriotism in separate speeches this past week — all designed to build walls against attacks on his character and construct bridges to voters waiting to learn more about him. Shedding light on his roots in his first major TV ad of the general election, called “Country I Love,” Obama highlighted how his single mother and grandparents taught him values straight from the “Kansas heartland where they grew up.” He frequently wears a flag pin — something he was criticized by Republicans for not doing during the primary. And on Monday, the man who wants to lift the national rhetoric obliquely criticized the liberal advocacy group MoveOn, which endorsed him months ago but also came under heavy fire last year for running an ad that referred to Gen. David Petraeus as “General Betray Us.” Obama referenced the flap when he said: “All too often, our politics still seems trapped in these old, threadbare arguments, a fact most evident during our recent debates about the war in Iraq, when … a general providing his best counsel on how to move forward in Iraq was accused of betrayal. McCain the Maverick Asserts Independence, Stays the Course in Iraq McCain will have less work to do than Obama to appeal to a middle-of-the-road constituency, since he is already seen largely as a center figure in American politics, said Mayer. But image-crafting has its risks. McCain is already on shaky ground with conservatives, though he has worked to mend fences. Still, moderate

voters swing elections. A June FOX News/Opinion Dynamics poll found that 16 percent of voters consider themselves independents. That’s a far larger percentage than the gap that separates McCain and Obama in national polls. McCain is also trying to foster a patriotic image. At a town hall meeting stacked with McCain supporters, questioners last month praised him for his military service and called him a “hero.” For McCain, the biggest challenge to closing the polling gap with Obama will be to distance himself from President Bush. On June 3, the night Obama secured the Democratic delegates to win the nomination, McCain insisted he is not, as Democrats charge, running for a third Bush term. He has called such claims “false,” and highlighted his past disagreements with Bush over detainee treatment, federal spending, climate change and energy policy. But McCain, a Vietnam POW, is tied to Bush in that he supports a stay-the-course approach in Iraq. In his first general election ad, he says he’s running “to keep the country I love safe,” but adds, “Only a fool or a fraud talks tough or romantically about war … I hate war.” Polls consistently show McCain is more trusted on issues of national security than Obama while Obama leads McCain on domestic issues like the economy and energy. GOP strategist Anne Dickerson said the Republican can use that trust to build his role as the responsible commander-in-chief in war time. “(Obama’s) acting like a community activist and not a global leader,” said Dickerson, who worked on Rudy Giuliani’s campaign during the GOP primary and now fundraises for McCain. “John McCain has the right and the duty to argue that,” she said. As voters list the economy as their No. 1 priority this election, McCain

is putting extra emphasis on his quest for energy efficiency. He’s recently offered a $300 million prize to the inventor of a superior car battery and a $5,000 tax credit to buyers of cars with zero carbon emissions; and he’s called on the federal government to switch to green technologies. McCain also pledged last week to a group of Latino officials that he would make immigration reform a “top priority” during his first 100 days in office.That’s a turnaround from his refusal to say, during a January debate, whether he’d vote for his own immigration proposal, with its guest worker provisions, if it came to the Senate floor.

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Miami Debate Institute 2008 Politics & Elections

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Elections DA – Aff Answers NEGATIVE PERCEPTIONS MEAN OBAMA WILL LOSE NOW

Associated Press, 7/7/2008 (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gcYxchcgbjmHqKbkpxv2zf1SLIvQD91OURCO0) Ask people to blurt out their first words about the two presidential candidates and one in five say "change" or "outsider" for Barack Obama and "old" for John McCain, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll released Monday. Those are not only the top responses for each man but the ones used most often since January, when fewer than one in 10 volunteered those descriptions. Four months from Election Day, the survey underscores that people see quality and question marks in both contenders as they struggle to control their images. Lack of experience is the next most frequently offered view of Obama, 46, the Democrat who came to the Senate from Illinois less than four years ago; for McCain, 71, the Republican senator from Arizona and Vietnam prisoner of war, it's his military service. "My husband and I are about the same age as McCain, and I don't think we'd be in a position to take this country in the direction it needs to go," said Rosemary Bates, 65, of Barre, Vt., an Obama supporter. "We've grown up in a different era. Something is not working and it needs to be changed." Obama is seen as warmer and more empathetic, McCain stronger and tougher. When people are asked whether specific words and phrases apply to each man, the Democrat does 12 percentage points better for caring about "people like you" and is 11 points more likable. McCain has a 24-point edge as a

military leader and is 9 points more decisive. The Republican's military service "gives him credibility when it comes to running a war, and to running this country when it's at war," said Lydia Muri, 52, a McCain backer from San Diego. "If you haven't been in that situation, it takes away from your credibility." The image differences even extend to the issues people most trust them to handle. McCain is seen as more capable on hard-edged problems like Iraq, terrorism and guns, while Obama is preferred on domestic matters like the economy, the environment and education. The AP-Yahoo News poll, conducted by Knowledge Networks, has surveyed about 2,000 people since November to gauge how individuals' views are changing during the presidential campaign. The repeated interviews show the candidates' images have evolved gradually since the fall, with both getting higher favorable and unfavorable marks as additional people form opinions. Yet peer down to the person-by-person level and things are more tumultuous. Just four in 10 Obama supporters have the same opinion of him that they had in November, with slightly more of the remainder turning more negative. McCain's backers are divided about evenly among those with the same, better or worse views of him. "In November he was a member of a crowd," said Sam Kemp, 50, of San Francisco, who sees Obama more positively now. "There's more information about his views now." Racial differences are clear. While whites are evenly split over which candidate better understands the problems of ordinary people, they are a bit likelier to say McCain shares their values, and prefer him by 2-to-1 for keeping the country safe. Nine in 10 blacks say Obama would do just fine in each of those areas, with only small fractions saying so about McCain. The survey suggests Obama faces a bigger problem than McCain from growing negative impressions.

THE PLAN DOES NOT AFFECT THE KEY ISSUES IN THE ELECTION

Gallup, 2007 (December 10, http://www.gallup.com/poll/103132/Iraq-Economy-Healthcare-Immigration-Top-Vote-Issues.aspx) When asked which issues will be most important in determining their vote for president in next year's election, Americans by a wide margin say the war in Iraq, with more than one in three mentioning the war. Other key issues include the economy, healthcare, and illegal immigration. Iraq has diminished somewhat as the top issue over the course of the year, while there has been a slight increase in the reported importance of immigration. The poll finds slight variations by partisanship and region in regard to which issues will be most important in influencing votes. The Nov. 30-Dec. 2, 2007, poll asked Americans to name, in their own words, what will be the most important issues they will take into account when deciding whom to vote for in next year's presidential election. Thirty-six percent of Americans say Iraq, with the economy (16%), healthcare (15%), and illegal immigration (10%) mentioned next most often. Between 3% and 6% of Americans mention homeland security or military defense, taxes, the honesty and integrity of the candidate, abortion, domestic issues, Social Security reform, and international affairs.

NO INTERNAL LINK

– THE ELECTION IS TOO FAR OFF AND A MULTITUDE OF THINGS CAN OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND NOVEMBER THAT COULD

AFFECT HOW THE PUBLIC VOTES

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Miami Debate Institute 2008 Politics & Elections

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Neg – Elections DA Uniqueness OBAMA WILL WIN NOW

– BUT THE ELECTION WILL BE CLOSE

Associated Press, 7/5/2008 (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gzZo2eBAOPQydDZ95hj0nXS-nhSAD91NO1R00) John McCain calls himself an underdog. That may be an understatement. The GOP presidential candidate trails Democrat Barack Obama in polls, organization and money while trying to succeed a deeply unpopular fellow Republican in a year that favors Democrats. McCain also doesn't seem to have a coherent message let alone much of a strategy despite securing the nomination three months earlier than Obama. "This is a tough race. We are behind. We are the underdog. That's what I like to be," the GOP nominee-in-waiting frequently tells donors these days, keenly aware not only of his woes but also his proven comeback ability: He won his party's nomination despite the implosion of his campaign last summer. One year later, and now in the general election, McCain's troubles are so acute that he recently gave senior adviser Steve Schmidt "full operational control" of the day-to-day campaign and, effectively, scaled back the duties of campaign manager Rick Davis. The shift in responsibilities came after weeks of Republican quibbling that McCain had not adequately made the transition for the fall. "The frustration is there's no big theme around which to build a winning campaign," said Steve Lombardo, a Republican pollster. "They need a big strategic message that will show the differences between the two campaigns, and allow for a win." Hope is far from lost: The election is still four months away. The national conventions and the presidential debates are upcoming. Conservative evangelical leaders skeptical of McCain are now coalescing around him. The race remains competitive. And, Obama's campaign is far from flawless. McCain also is beefing up his staff with more presidential campaign veterans under the guidance of Schmidt, a top aide in President Bush's re-election effort and the operative who led Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to a comefrom-behind victory in California two years ago. The campaign will try to showcase its efforts to restore discipline next week when McCain announces a "jobs first" economic plan and tours competitive states. For now, GOP insiders are cautious as they watch for improvement — and they should be. The political environment is dreadful for the GOP, with Bush's approval rating at low levels as the country teeters economically and fights two wars. And, as McCain's campaign struggles, Obama is seemingly skating along, visiting states Bush won four years ago and courting traditional GOP supporters with his core message: "Change We Can Believe In." Nonetheless, the Illinois senator says, "I'm going to have to be a better candidate" and is mindful of his own vulnerabilities. There are many, not the least of which is trying to become the first black president of a country where racism still runs deep. The GOP-fueled liberal elitist label also could stick on this Harvard-educated Chicagoan. And, Obama also may be undercutting his claim to be a straight-shooting, new-politics candidate as he repeatedly breaks with his liberal base on various issues to aggressively move to appeal to the center of the electorate. National polls vary widely, but they have one commonality: None show McCain ahead of Obama. And, on voters' most important issues, McCain trails on every subject but Iraq and terrorism. He also lags in key states, including Bush-won Colorado and Ohio.

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